Chicken or the Egg? Attendance Vs Payroll Vs Record..
by Evilfrog on Sep 2, 2009 10:19 PM EDT
22 comments
It was brought up another Fan Post about Payroll and Attendance. First thing that I found is that this information isn't easy to come by. I found the attendance here. For The Salary, Record, and the Attendance rank I used Baseball Reference. I copied the CSV from the roster and put it into a into a spreadsheet and used that to add up the Salary. Rookies and late season additions do not have their salaries listed there. This leads to some flaws in the data and if anyone has a better place to find this data please speak up. Something that would really help is rank of payroll Vs. other NL teams. Also if someone knows where to find Gross Profit and Net Profit for the cardinals that would be awesome.
| Year | Salary | Record | Attendance avg. | Attendance rank (NL) |
| 1990 | $19,548,334.00 | 70-92 | 31,768 | 3 of 12 |
| 1991 | $19,325,001.00 | 84-78 | 30,231 | 3 of 12 |
| 1992 | $26,968,836.00 | 83-79 | 29,858 | 3 of 12 |
| 1993 | $23,067,334.00 | 87-75 | 35,123 | 6 of 14 |
| 1994 | $28,938,601.00 | 53-61 | 32,746 | 5 of 14 |
| 1995 | $37,101,000.00 | 62-81 | 24,570 | 7 of 14 |
| 1996 | $40,269,667.00 | 88-74 | 32,774 | 4 of 14 |
| 1997 | $45,301,667.00 | 73-89 | 32,519 | 4 of 14 |
| 1998 | $54,122,521.00 | 83-79 | 39,453 | 4 of 16 |
| 1999 | $49,228,195.00 | 75-86 | 40,197 | 3 of 16 |
| 2000 | $61,453,863.00 | 95-67 | 41,191 | 1 of 16 |
| 2001 | $74,013,333.00 | 93-69 | 38,390 | 3 of 16 |
| 2002 | $74,260,875.00 | 97-65 | 37,182 | 4 of 16 |
| 2003 | $82,881,666.00 | 85-77 | 35,930 | 4 of 16 |
| 2004 | $83,228,333.00 | 105-57 | 37,634 | 6 of 16 |
| 2005 | $91,346,833.00 | 100-62 | 43,647 | 2 of 16 |
| 2006 | $87,356,371.00 | 83-78 | 42,588 | 2 of 16 |
| 2007 | $88,904,823.00 | 78-84 | 48,853 | 3 of 16 |
| 2008 | $91,476,449.00 | 86-76 | 42,353 | 3 of 16 |
Looking at this we can see that through-out most of the 1990s the Cardinals attendance was in the high 20,000s to low 30,000s. DeWitt purchased the team in 1995 and the payroll started raising. By 1998 the Attendance moved up to the high 30,000s low 40,000s. 1999 was a bad year as far as the record went, but there were other reasons for fans to show up that year. (I wouldn't know, I was in Japan.)
To me this shows that payroll steadily increased for a few years before attendance started picking up. Of course there could be countless other factors that lead to the attendance increase. Obviously bad teams in 94 and 95 would have lead to a decrease in interest from the fans.
So I going to go ahead and open this up to discussion. If a team like the pirates open up the pocket book for a few years, and sees improvement in their team, do you think attendance will rise enough to support this extended payroll?
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I feel ya on records
I think I had to go to individual box scores to scrape out individual attendance numbers. Hard to do in-season analysis.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 2, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Big Mac
it was the year after the record & they wanted to see if he could break it. that’s why people showed up.
btw, why were you in Japan? were you in the military?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Sep 2, 2009 11:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Marine Corps.
But I still knew why they showed up. Other factors like coaching changes, ownership changes, runs at records, and even adding Holliday this season seem to have an effect on attendance.
I wonder if the Mariners picked up Jr. more to spike attendance than to win games.
by Evilfrog on Sep 3, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seems like there's a strong relationship
Between record and attendance – the record from the prior season. The 2007 season was some crap baseball, but it had great attendance b/c of the ws. Both 2004 and 2005 had world-class teams, but the attendance is much better in 2005. This pattern seems to hold true.
Which makes sense, since people have to order season tickets ahead of time, and even in-season ticket purchases may not ramp up until late in a good season.
Increasing spending probably could make sense as a plan. You’d have to accept that it will take a couple years of success to start seeing the stadium revenue. The best way to use that attack would be as part of a series of strategies to expand the fanbase (say, targeting a foreign market or a local ethnic fanbase – a la omar minaya and the hispanic community or the mariners and the japanese market).
It also would probably make more sense for a team with a mixed history and a currently “just ok” third-place kind of team.
The Pirates have decades of suck to live down, for instance. It’s going to take steady improvement to see a jump in attendance, and a huge increase in talent over the current squad. Improving their team to a fourth-place team is just not going to bring people in.
The Astros, say, have a winning tradition and a team with some useful pieces on it. If you want to sink some money into trying to make the astros better, you could make the astros a contender in a few years if you just wanted to throw money at the team. They also have a huge potential market.You might soon see a return if they went back to the playoffs for three years running.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 3, 2009 12:18 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
re: targeting a local fanbase
If I remember correctly, this was much of the motivation behind the Dodgers signing Fernando Valenzuela—they were looking for a Mexican phenom. (or at least, they heavily marketed a Mexican phenom once they had him).
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Sep 3, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and it worked. you'll see more
Fernando jerseys Than active player jerseys.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 3, 2009 2:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm, RE: Pirates
Improving their team to a fourth-place team is just not going to bring people in.
It kinda depends on how they finish fourth doesn’t it? What if they start horribly, bring up youth, and begin winning lots of ballgames after the All-Star break to finish fourth in a great division? Wouldn’t fans be excited if you then made one good off season signing, enticing them to buy season tickets and multi game packs for the next season? I think if you market the team properly, you can get people to come out and watch a team that finished in fourth place the year before — you have to generate excitement from the fanbase, and, in turn, show some improvement on the field and commitment to winning. Pittsburgh’s ownership hasn’t showed a commitment to win in a long fucking time, and they play in an awfully nice ballpark, so just showing some loyalty to the fanbase by keeping the young players around, signing a vet or two that can help win games, and not having huge sell-offs of veteran players (McClouth, Wilson, etc.) will help build fan loyalty and, in turn, sell more tickets.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Sep 3, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can get some data from Forbes...
… i know they have revenue and operating income, as well as opening day payrolls and several ranking statistics.
by kindred on Sep 3, 2009 2:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What we're not factoring in here is marketing
I firmly believe that you can get people to show up to watch a game if you market the team correctly and target the correct market for the team that you have. Nobody between the ages of 30-45 (the target baseball market in most towns) is going to give a shit about the Pirates because they haven’t been relevant for most of their adult lives. If you target the youth and the old guard (who remember the great Pirate teams of the 70’s and late 80’s/early 90’s, then you’ll have a much better chance of getting them to buy tickets. That, and have a fundamental strategy when it comes to running your team, which they haven’t had for some time. They need to emphasize the youth of their ballclub, commit some money to the good youngsters that they have (both McCutchen’s come to mind, Matt Capps, Maholm, Duke, etc.) and be savvy enough to bring in veterans on the cheap that can help the team win ballgames. They should focus on building around youth and target 2011-2012 as when they can “go for it” and make a run at the wild card of division title.
We here in St. Louis have been spoiled, the be frank. We have an ownership that is committed to winning, fans that come out to watch our team and pay fairly expensive ticket prices to do it, and have sustained success because of well managed front-offices and teams for the better part of three decades now. I’d much rather be us than the Yankees (who have outsize expectations every year), the Red Sox (because I couldn’t stomach being that insufferable every day during the baseball season), or the Cubs (100 years…ONE HUNDRED YEARS!!! — as well as that whole insufferable thing mentioned above).
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Sep 3, 2009 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We here in St. Louis have been spoiled, the be frank. We have an ownership that is committed to winning, fans that come out to watch our team and pay fairly expensive ticket prices to do it, and have sustained success because of well managed front-offices and teams for the better part of three decades now.
All true (maybe except for much of the 90s) – I don’t think you can ignore the single biggest factor in all our recent successes, however – and he wears a #5.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 8, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While that's true, and Pujols is a great player.
One guy doesn’t win games all by himself, in any sport (even the NBA). He performed well in the ‘06 playoffs, but Eckstein was the World Series MVP, and Suppan, Weaver, and Carp were all great in those playoffs. The front office went out and got Ryan Ludwick a couple of years ago, and we’re not even competing last year without him (or even the year before). The org stuck by Rick Ankiel and he made a splash for about 6 months before completely fading into oblivion.
Just to compare, let’s put Albert on the Royals or the Nationals. Are they winning division titles right now by just swapping in Albert for the players they have at 1B currently? Probably not.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Sep 9, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Test Case
The test case would be the Marlins. Their attendance is all over the place, but mostly low. Strangely, they weren’t that high in either 2003, the year they won their second world series, or 1997, when they won their first. If there is a correlation between their record and attendance here, I don’t see it.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Sep 3, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The problem with that analysis though
is threefold:
- They play in a horrible stadium. Find me another team that plays in a horrible environment for baseball and consistently draws in the top third of the MLB. There isn’t one, not even the Twins.
- Ownership has been perceived not to care (even though they’ve won 2 World Series), and local politicians simply DON’T care. Southern Florida hasn’t had a new stadium built for any team since 1989. When they got the Marlins the agreement was to get them a baseball only facility and nobody has been able to do that in 16 years. Why would fans buy into a team that could easily move within the next three years because some other town will build them a stadium?
- They were an expansion franchise. The Rockies have been pretty successful, but they aren’t setting any attendance records and have a much better situation than the Marlins (no competing in-state, multi-state area lacking any baseball teams, baseball only facility, stable ownership, etc.) I think you have to give an expansion franchise around 15 years to develop a stable base of fans, because they either have to steal fans of other teams who’ve moved to the area or develop fans from a young age. It helps to have sustained success to develop those fans as well, not selling off the team that wins the World Series and starting with a new crop of players.
The last point is striking to me. Think about the players that Cardinal fans of all ages were treated to growing up: Musial, Brock, Gibby, Cepeda, Ozzie, Willie, Dizzy, Red, Sutter, etc. The list could go on and on and on. If you’re a Marlins fan, who is the player you grew up wanting to be? Sheffield? Pudge? Kevin Brown? Josh Beckett? Chuck Carr? I mean really? Part of the great thing about being a Cardinals fan is the history. Part of being a great Mets or Astros fan (2 other expansion franchises) is the history of the players that those teams have had (Ryan, Carter, Straw, and Doc for the Mets; Scott, Bags, Ryan, Biggio, Bell for the ‘Stros) There’s simply nobody that Marlins fans can identify with and say “That was our guy, he was a great player for our team for years”. If Pudge, Sheffield, or Beckett make the Hall, do you think they’re going in with a Marlins hat on? I highly doubt it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Sep 3, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marlins fans could identify with Mike Piazza
by First mammal to wear pants on Sep 3, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the last point probably is the big one
And it takes a few years. The Rockies, at least they have Todd Helton for the kids to look up to. And Tampa seems to be on the right road now with Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, BJ Upton, etc. after years of Canseco, Boggs, and Tino Martinez. And at this point I’ve basically forgotten that Arizona is a recent expansion team. A big problem, I think, is that baseball added too many teams too fast – 4 teams in just a couple of years is a big thing to ask, especially for a bunch of purple and teal teams.
On the other hand, an old team like STL, it is a different thing. I mean, how often does somebody here randomly name drop some player like Tito Landrum? If Pittsburgh can support a first rate hockey team and a first rate football team, they really don’t have an excuse to be as bad in baseball as they have been the last 10 – 15 years.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 7, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's a fan thing in Pittsburgh
But it has to hurt seeing all those players being traded away for prospects. And in the last 3 years I can’t think of one time the Pirates have traded for a teams top prospect.
by Evilfrog on Sep 8, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alderson was #3 behind two pretty phenomenal prospects -- bumgarner and posey.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 8, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their fans are actually quite good
I’ve never met someone from Pittsburgh who likes baseball who is non-knowledgable at all. Also, when you consider the deep amount of history that THAT particular team has, it actually is really sad. Nothing’s gone right for them since they let Barry Bonds go to free agency.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Sep 8, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
USA Today has team payrolls going back to 1988
The numbers are a bit different from yours (for the years I checked the USA Today values were all a bit higher, so maybe they take into account rookies and late season additions). All 30 teams are there so you can figure out the Cards’ NL rank, but inconveniently you can’t separate out NL from AL.
by BTown Birds fan on Sep 3, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
USA today and Cot's Contracts
I usually use Cot’s Contracts for salary data. A quick check shows that the data from 2000 is very close between the two. 2009 data is not even close.
Per USA today the 2009 number payroll for STL is $77,605,109. This is way off any other number talked about this seaon. Cot’s Contracts has the Cards payroll at $88,528,409 on the team page and $94,498,500 on the spreadsheet. I believe USAtoday is ignoring both Glaus and Kennedy with their figure.
by ubeddie on Sep 3, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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