Lohse's Lost Season
by chuckb on Sep 19, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintThis is the prevailing attitude among the Cards’ broadcasters and, undoubtedly, among the St. Louis media. I’m sure it’s the attitude of many in the Cards’ brass as well. Once this guy’s healthy, he’ll go back to being the 15-win, under-4 ERA-generating, 200-inning starter the Cards were counting on heading into the season. He’s not yet past his prime; he won’t turn 31 for another couple of weeks. He still has some good years ahead of him; this year’s undoubtedly a fluke.
If you look at the table below, you’ll see his true talent level. The reality is that he’s a much better pitcher than he’s been this season.
| ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | GB/FB | FIP | tRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 5.68 | 6.38 | 2.89 | 2.21 | 1.59 | 5.16 | ||
| 2002 | 4.23 | 6.18 | 3.49 | 1.77 | 1.30 | 0.89 | 4.77 | 5.87 |
| 2003 | 4.61 | 5.82 | 2.01 | 2.89 | 1.25 | 0.95 | 4.29 | 5.21 |
| 2004 | 5.34 | 5.15 | 3.53 | 1.46 | 1.30 | 1.22 | 5.06 | 5.58 |
| 2005 | 4.18 | 4.33 | 2.22 | 1.95 | 1.11 | 1.31 | 4.55 | 5.67 |
| 2006 | 5.83 | 6.89 | 3.13 | 2.20 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 4.34 | 4.94 |
| 2007 | 4.62 | 5.70 | 2.66 | 2.14 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 4.53 | 5.36 |
| 2008 | 3.78 | 5.36 | 2.21 | 2.43 | 0.81 | 1.43 | 3.89 | 4.80 |
| 2009 | 4.83 | 5.72 | 2.95 | 1.94 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 4.57 | 5.25 |
| Total | 4.68 | 5.63 | 2.75 | 2.05 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 4.54 | 5.35 |
Tell me again, Al, which season is the outlier? The only season that stands out here as being unique is 2008 – the season that garnered him the big $40 M contract. It’s true that the number of innings pitched is different both in this year and in his rookie year – 2001. In that season, he threw just 90.1 innings and he’s thrown only 100.2 innings this year but the quality of the innings he’s thrown this year is about the same as he’s thrown every season of his career. I understand that the conventional wisdom in St. Louis is that Dave Duncan turned Lohse into a ground ball throwing machine and turned a #4 or #5 starter into a #2 or #3 starter but you’ll notice that his ground ball to fly ball ratio has reverted to his pre-2008 levels this year. That’s, of course, the primary reason his home run rate has risen – to his career average, I might add.
Has Lohse been a victim of bad luck this year? Nope. His BABIP is just .297 – 11 points below his career average. His HR/FB is 10.7%, only slightly above his career ratio – 10.1%. In fact, last year his HR/FB was 8.6% -- a full 1.5% below his career average, indicating that he was probably pretty fortunate last season.
The point here isn’t that Kyle Lohse sucks. He’s not Todd Wellemeyer. He’s not Adam Wainwright, either. He is what he is – a #4 or #5 starter who has some value when he can throw 180-200 innings and is a liability at an $8-10 M salary when he’s pitching half that many. This is not, as Al claims, a "lost season" for Lohse. He’s not simply been a victim of injuries. All the injuries have done is reduce the number of innings he’s thrown. They haven’t made him pitch worse. He’s pitching worse b/c he simply isn’t as good as he led many to believe last season.
Can he be a viable 4th starter in the playoffs should we need one? Perhaps, but he shouldn’t be expected to shut down the competition. He’s not "a much better pitcher than he’s shown this year." He’s worse than what he showed last year. What we’ve witnessed this year is a half-year sample of Lohse’s true talent level.
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Good call Chuck
I brought up this same point in a main thread earlier this week. It’s pretty damning how close his numbers this year have been to his numbers in every year prior to 2008 — seems like we overpaid for a guy who had a career year. When will teams start to figure out that certain guys are only motivated when their career is on the line and there’s not tomorrow? Another guy who comes to mind is Ellis Burks, who had ridiculous seasons in the final year of his contracts, only to regress to career average levels after getting signed for the next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Caveat emptor
seems like we overpaid for a guy who had a career year.
Will someone (Cards???) do the same for Jo-el this offseason?
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
I am hoping that Mo is learning along the way and not make that same kind of deal again.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually Fourstcik, I think I disagree with you there (of course ;)
Lohse had previously spent most of his time in the AL, or in hitters ballparks. In a pitchers park in the NL Central, Lohse should be expected to put up better numbers (probably .20-.30 points of FIP).
So he’s been bad this year, and I do think that he still has room to improve.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 19, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I could agree with this
except that his peripherals (BB/9, GB/FB, K/BB) , which shouldn’t be affected by the ball park he’s pitching in, have regressed to around his career levels from the levels he put up last year. He may still have room to improve, but calling this a fluke and saying he should be better is a really tough thing to prove, imo.
I would guess that he’s not quite as good as he was last year and that when he’s pitching well he’s a low-average #3 starter or a good #4 starter — essentially a league average pitcher, and we shouldn’t be paying a league average pitching $41M over 4Y, especially when there’s a large number of those type of pitchers on the market who sign 1 year deals all the time, giving the team no long term risk on that contract. It would make far more sense to go shopping for one of those types every year (Randy Wolf, Brad Penny, etc.) than to give a pitcher like Lohse the contract that we gave him — he would have to pitch as well as 2008 in two of the four years of the contract to make it a worthwhile investment, and I don’t see him doing that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
yes.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 19, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Ellis Burks was often injured
I think by the end of his career he did not have any cartilage left in his knees. When he played, he was good.
I am not disagreeing on Lohse.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
You may be right
You are probably right, it is a difficult argument to counter. However, I am going to be a little irrational about Lohse until next year and pin my hopes on his fine April before the fluky stuff happened. It may not be a cogent argument, but there is no denying he put up numbers very similar to his career numbers despite injury. It does seem a little bit logical that a healthy Lohse would be better than an unhealthy one.
Nevertheless, I think the best he will do is be a pitcher who benefits tremendously from Busch’s tendency to suppress home runs.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
yeah, just looking at the timeline, I'm not sure I like how seasons average it all out
As soon as he got out of the DL, he’d get injured again. Once, he got out and his cousin died. All his rehab starts were on the road except for the game against L.A. when he was up till midnight with the rest of the team.
This season more than any other has convinced me that a pitcher’s patterns and routine are of paramount importance. Especially for a finesse pitcher or whatever they call ‘em these days. The mental strain of landing on the DL for the first time, plus he knows he’s not performing for his contract money? Why wouldn’t he revert to his old numbers? If anything, it’s amazing to me that he reverted to his old numbers and wasn’t worse.
I’ll buy the bald statement that he’s pitching as well as he used to pitch. But saying these are his “real” numbers? And 2008 was the outlier? Not enough information to convince me. The numbers have to do more than ‘look that way’, particularly since he’s injured this year and in all the other years he was healthy.
All that is secondary to his arm feeling weird and the doctors having no explanation for it. That sends gigantic red flags. “My nerves are not firing right” is not a mundane complaint. I mean, I’m not gonna invoke the guy’s name, but that would be a worst case scenario…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
lohse
started off this year just as good as good as he was last year until being hit hard on the forearm by a wild pitch. Since then he has not been the same but I’m going to wait till next year to pass judgement on him because from what I saw he took a hard blow.
I've seen a lot younger than you make worse mistakes.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Gotta agree with that.
He was decent, especially with Carp out and Waino having his own trials and tribs. So I will have to give him a pass. We shoulda got him for 10m less and no NTC though…spilled milk.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
f'in Ron Mahay
He’s not even with the Royals anymore. Twins traded for him, for a PTBNL. $4M.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
CONGRATULATIONS REDBIRDS
PCL CHAMPIONS BAYBEEE
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/sep/19/memphis-redbirds-win-pcl-crown/
Brett Wallace was held to 3 hits and 0 RBIs.
The cavalry has a winner-take-all 1-game playoff in Oklahoma City vs. the International League’s … Durham Bulls. No, really. It will be televised on ESPN2 wooooooo go Redbirds!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
^ September 22nd
The 2009 Triple-A Baseball National Championship Game will take place Tuesday, Sept. 22 at 6 p.m. CST, broadcast live around the world on ESPN2 and Westwood One radio.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
What a bunch of happy-go-lucky devils they are!
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
they are soaked with the beer of victory
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
The real question is
Who’s that at the bottom-right of the picture with the middle-finger salute fail?
he is air guitar hero-ing it up
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
I would dearly love to find the uncropped photo
but now I’m thinking maybe they cropped for a reason.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you think maybe that's where he's wearing his ring?
(Do they get rings?)
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Meanwhile, the man who sent Brett Wallace west was winning a baseball game for us.
I THINK I KNOW WHO THE CLUTCH ONE IS.
Shut up, Fritz™.
party hard, Mo.
or smile wryly. whatever you do for fun.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
word has it you puked on a cat.
You guys were epic again last night. I went to bed drunk at midnight and woke up to 600 comments.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR
that's a successful night on the internets
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
"mommmmm i hadda rasmus again"
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm always thankful when I puke
Puking is step 1 in my hangover cure.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
It is all about what you drink
I normally get drunk off 2 drinks. Bourbon and Water at home or Vodka on the Rocks at the bar. I think it is because I don’t drink any mixers with mine besides water it helps with the hang overs. Plus, I drink a lot of water when I do drink.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 19, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I always promise myself I'm going to drink water
but I never end up following through. Lessons are to be learned later in life.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if this is actually helpful
but everytime I come back I take 3 tylenol and drink a glass of orange juice and then I drink orange juice when I wake up.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
morning red bull is my favorite remedy
B vitamins plus caffeine. you have to have the B vitamins the next morning – keep b6 and b12 around.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
See I knew taking advice from people in frats wasn't a good idea
I’ll keep this in mind now. VEB is help for life!
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
straight up aspirin
nothing wrong with it
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Just don't take too many at one time.
My dad did that one time when he had a mother of a headache and damn near ended up in the hospital.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Supposedly taking it before you drink gets you drunker too
Essentially makes it like drinking on an empty stomach because the enzyme in your stomach that oxidizes alcohol somewhat gets shut off.
Not afraid to nitpick
No that's good
I’ve found in general if I don’t puke after heavy drinking the next afternoon is really going to suck.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I puke when I'm really full sometimes too.
My stomach hates me.
(I puked like ten minutes ago while taking a shower. There’s nothing int there, but my stomach wanted to make sure. Bile be gone!)
Shut up, Fritz™.
I rarely even get hangovers
I just feel extra groggy in the morning
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 19, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I get a gag reflex brushing my teeth at least once a month and puke
great way to start the day.
Shut up, Fritz™.
try mouthwashing with peroxide after a rough night
instahurl
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
But is that worth it?
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
peroxide gargle a couple of times a week
helps keep the mouth healthy
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Try a tongue scraper
To clean the tongue without gagging
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 19, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
oh come on now
i’m sure you’d be completely serviceable
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Servicable??
Is he pulling it off with grit?
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
trip to the emergency room right there
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
celebrate!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
So, I didn't get online last night to say so,
but can I just say that the kidney punch/play grabass walkoff celebration may be one of the single most inspired pieces of silliness I’ve ever seen?
it's the bromance of 2009
the mustaches were just the beginning
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
queue up the Jed crotch grab pic
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
he's got a purdy mouth ain't he
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
they're certainly
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Here it comes...
And THERE IT GOES!
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Sep 19, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
oh yeaaaaaah
Boog survived. He remains under observation.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
speaking of Saint Mark
I wonder what cubs fans think of the rotoworld headline… since that wasn’t what the article was about at all.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
haha, look at yadi!
damn this team is fun
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Sep 19, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
it was rather ill-timed for a home plate celebration, though
usually everyone jumps at once. it’s just rust… they’ll get better with more practice.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I am so glad I get to look at all this NFL shit on VEB.
thumbs up
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
adblock and flashblock
two thumbs up ;)
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
on one hand
the nfl sucks, but on the other it pays for servers to handle 2,000 comment overflow threads.
but mostly on the first hand, really.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 19, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Pics of the pickoff?
Anyone seen pics of the pickoff online? I gotta add that to my collection, which already included Ronny Cedeno oversliding 2nd base.
Haven't seen any pics,
but I found it funny that, to add injury to insult, as it were, Albert’s tag knocked the helmet off Theriot’s head. Looked like he bonked him pretty good.
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 19, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
the mang doesn't know his ong strength
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
This is the best I've been able to do so far....
I’d like to find one with the glove hitting Theriot’s head. Heh.
ohhhhhhhh nice.
and might I add, much more tasteful than BCB trotting out that photo of Yadi’s serious injury thanks to Lilly.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
aaaaaand i've found a new profile pic
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 19, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i see your sig is about the curse of Scott Rolen
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
ha ha
I watched this clip 10 times and could not quit laughing. After Theriot was tagged out he looked like Alberts little brother and the ump was his mom like he was saying “Mom Albert hit me in the head”. Half expecting the ump to put Albert in timeout.
link
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200909186720985&c_id=stl
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
perfect description
It was the highlight of the game. I’m still more excited about the pick off than Lego’s walk off.
It’s like this team prides itself on picking people off
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 19, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
it would be entirely worth it
to do that to an AL team.
Yadi was so ready to do it during the All Star Game but didn’t get an opportunity.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
OT: I just clicked on last nite's Overflow to read the damn near 2000 comments
and my computer locked up tighter than a snare-drum. Liketa never got out of it.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions
I love that we couldn't muster up 100 comments in 6 hours
But I feel kinda ashamed that I’m waking up before most everyone else
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
sometimes Boog fights the Stare and Wins.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i shouldn't laugh
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
he's selling it--!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
there is some real assbackwardness to that play.
Lugo throws with his glove hand, Boog catches it with the bare hand.
it was a defensive catch
I’m just… amazed this stuff happens all the time and we’re used to it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
After watching Hollidays walk off last night
I remembered last week when Pujols had a 2 homer game and on one of the home runs as he rounded first he looked back into the dugout and was laughing and the camera panned to the dugout and showed Lugo like a 12 year old boy pumping his fists in the air and Joel and the other guys laughing. Does anyone know what happened or what was going on there? There was obviously some kind of inside joke but I was wondering if anyone had heard anything about it. Sorry if this has already been discussed I did not catch it.
it is a mystery
known only to Albert and Julio. someone said it looked like a called shot, or maybe it was a coaching thing. or maybe the game is just fun and they’re tight like that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They seem to get along better than any team in recent memory
Doesn’t really matter, they still aren’t as good as the ’04 team but it looks like more fun.
Not afraid to nitpick
Maybe it was a Bull Durham moment.
Where AP said “If this guy hangs a curve on the first pitch, I’m taking him downtown.”.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
that Lugo trade is starting to look pretty good
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
It looked AWESOME from the get go.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR
I think it wouldn't have worked
if he and Albert weren’t instant buddies. It’s like, “where have you been all my life, mang, I needed one more for my fave five”.
we’re still seeing the stove glove, but Lugo’s definitely adding more to the team than he’s taking away. just send him out there with Boog.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
this is so dumb
he’s hurt! you guys really think that his numbers, while he has been injured most of the season, are really indicative of his true talent level? the case could definitely be made that last year was the flukey season, but using this year’s numbers as an argument in favor of that logic is just flawed. maybe i’m crazy, but i just think a healthy kyle lohse can pitch better than an injury riddled kyle lohse
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Yes. This certainly is dumb.
On the other hand, looking at the evidence in front of your face and ignoring it because it doesn’t fit the narrative in your head is wicked smart.
I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome. Now get your head in the game!
by the red baron on Sep 19, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
an injured pitching hand is a pretty big variable to ignore...
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
who's ignoring what here?
the case could definitely be made that last year was the flukey season, but using this year’s numbers as an argument in favor of that logic is just flawed.
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
you guys really think that his numbers, while he has been injured most of the season, are really indicative of his true talent level?
Yes, because they represent his numbers prior to 2008 pretty well.
maybe i’m crazy, but i just think a healthy kyle lohse can pitch better than an injury riddled kyle lohse
You might be, but this is the smartest thing you’ve said here (the second part) — the problem is that you can’t tell me that it’s obvious that his injury has caused him to pitch as bad as he has this season, because his numbers are so close to what they are for most of his career that it’s awfully tough to say that it’s because he’s hurt.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
ordinarily I'd agree with that second bit
but there’s such a clear division between his performance before the injury and the performance after it that I think you have to at least consider that there was causation.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Lohse has had a broad spectrum of seasons
In both the AL and NL, which range from “bad NL season” to “slightly above average AL season”. These numbers slot him as anywhere from a #5 in the NL to a #4 in the AL. Next year, he will be asked to be the team’s #3, which is about the limit of his abilities, and a role he could potentially fill if he pitches as he did in 2007 or a little worse.
At the same time, to keep things in perspective, Kip Wells threaded together three decent NL seasons with the Pirates between 2002-2004. That’s the sort of production we would take from Lohse over the next few years.
At the same time, it is sobering to think that Lohse’s ceiling for production is Kip Wells, early 2000s.
OT: Today's game
Unfortunately because I live close to Detroit, I’m not getting today’s Cubs-Cards game :(
Anyone have a link (or know where one will be)?
I bleed Cardinal red.
Yes Fox sucks.
I have Denver, LA, and NY feeds. Denver is Detroit and the Twinkies. The coasts are the coasts. I hate Saturdays. Also last week, Toadonalump was college football. I had to pull my truck up to the door at work and crank XM to hear the game.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR
be nice now
some people prefer to get their news from Fox
/does not prefer to get his news from Fox
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
you know AL, it really was
I think K-Mac should keep pitching like this for the next couple months
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i love watching the ghetto gamecast thing on espn for football
Mizzou: Alexander to Perry for a TOUCHDOWN! I can only imagine what that looked like.
lost season aka small sample size
Lohse is working on his third restart to 2009. He has had two stretches of nine starts (Apr 7 – May 23 and July 12 – Aug 21) . His pre injury stats (ERA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB and HR/9) are in line with 2008 while his post injury stats match his career worse in each category. Some day I’ll learn how to make tables, until then here is the data
2009 ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9
Pre 3.98 6.32 2.66 2.38 0.83
Post 5.62 5.18 3.38 1.53 1.35
In this case I would agree that 2009 is a lost season and two small sample sizes shouldn’t be used to throw out 2008 or to predict 2010.
who's using small sample sizes?
the sample size I used consists of 7 full seasons and 2 partial seasons — a 1400+ inning body of evidence. We can go w/ your sample of 9 starts as a good sample size, if you like though. That’s what, about 55 innings? If you think those 55 innings are more indicative than 1464 innings then nothing I have to say is going to convince you anyway.
i love the "small sample size" disclaimers
Its like you can say whatever you want, and throw in the “small sample size” assumptions. I swear some of the statheads don’t consider Hank Aaron’s career as a large enough sample size to confirm any sort of talent.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
that's an idiotic thing to say
particularly when ubeddie used the “small sample size” argument to make the point that this year’ s #s are thrown off by 9 poor starts following an injury. The point I was making was that my argument WAS NOT BASED ON A SMALL SAMPLE SIZE and for him to complain about my sample size when his was the small sample, was ludicrous.
Save your condescension for when you know what the fuck you’re talking about.
+1
deep breathes chuck…
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 19, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
its cool
I’m day drinking/watching football also
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
will do
And I agree with you – Lohse isn’t exactly a spring chicken here. We have some years of data here, and yeah, I’d say he’s a solid major league pitcher. I just don’t think he’s a $10MM a year pitcher.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
wow, remind me not to disagree with the mods, ever.
especially since most of the posters are saying they agree with your basic premise.
come on guys, people disagree with me all the time here, because i’m frequently wrong. not all of them are asses about it. if you’re going to lower the tone of the discussion with your first comment, I’m not sticking around to see the rest of this thread.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is why I try to make my comments as innocuous as I can.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Generally you're okay disagreeing...
this guy seems to have a short nonexistent fuse.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
poor choice on my part of subject line
I apologize if you took my post as complaining about something you did. I was equating the “lost season” comment with “small sample size” comment frequently used on this blog. If your conclusion that Lohse’s 2009 number confirm that he is just like his first seven seasons, then I will have to disagree with the conclusion and withhold my conclusion until I see a full season by Lohse in 2010. Just my opinion, not an opinion of your fine thought provoking work.
In ubeddie's defense
i think he was suggesting that the 2009 season is a small sample with enough narrative to potentially muddy the waters a bit.
I also think the suggestion that league disparities and ballparks throughout the rest of Lohse’s career might leave some room in the numbers for improvement.
Lastly, pitchers, differently than hitters, are more likely to capitalize on a sudden performance spike later in their careers due to the ability to add a pitch, change delivery/deception or whatever. Right?
2009 non indicative
is what I am saying. He started 2009 repeating what he had done in 2008 then was injured. If 2009 was 150 innings with no or a minor interruption, I would be more inclined to use that to confirm he is reverting to what he was. The basis of your argument is not impacted by 2009’s performance is another way of what I am trying to say.
I have to side with Lohse on this one
This year’s been a wash. I still hate the contract, as he’s too average of a pitcher for a 4-year deal with a NTC. I expect him to be a ~4.1 FIP pitcher next year if he stays healthy. Not as good as 2008, but I think he really progressed as a pitcher in coming to STL and will be better than his career averages under the Duncan tutelage as he seems to be a pitcher that really benefits from the style.
Again, his early 2009 just can’t be ignored. You can’t use it to say he’s for sure a <4.0 FIP guy for the next 3 years, but calling him a bust is unfair.
"If I'm in a slump, I ask myself for advice" - Ichiro
i think he's a bust for the money
An entire staff of pitchers with a 4.0 FIP who can log 200+ innings is nothing to scoff at, and Lohse is certainly a solid middle of the rotation kind of guy. But 4 years, $40MM, NTC is a bit of a stretch for that kind of pitcher, I think. I have nothing against Lohse – its all against the contract.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 19, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
well sadly you've got me convinced
i agree with VEP that pitching in the NL should drop his average FIP and HR/FB rates just a little bit but yes, 4/40 MM for a pitcher of lohse’s caliber was just a dumb deal.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 19, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
The real pain.
Is the No Trade. It didn’t seem like a good business decision at the time it happened. I wasn’t there but giving a .500 pitcher 40mill seems like enough without giving a NTC. I would love to hear how that discussion went. Were we really bent over the barrell so far that we had to give the farm, animals and the farmers daughter away?
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 19, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
we have a young GM who isn't very good and seems to be easily scammed in deals
I can’t really find any other way to explain the Lohse deal and the Holliday trade. My big concern is that, if Boras raped him so badly over Lohse, you’ve got to think our “Moar Pie Discount” plan for Holliday is a pipe dream…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 19, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Lineups
THE WALKOFF LOSERS
Theriot SS
Fukudome CF
Lee 1B
Ramirez 3B
M. Hoffpauir RF
Soto C
Baker 2B
Scales LF
Dempster P
GOOD GUYS
Schu 2B
Raz CF
Pujols 1B
Lego LF
Lud RF
DeRo 3B
Yadi C
Boog SS
Fish (Carp) P
I bleed Cardinal red.
Tasty
I’ll still campaign for DeRosa in the 2-hole and Rasmus 6 so he can use the speed as well as splitting up the lefties but I don’t get the feeling that’s ever gonna happen.
Not afraid to nitpick
i'm always happy
when Dick ain’t all up in my grill
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
TLR's Dick playing...
is over. These games are serious.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
by guayzimi on Sep 19, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well played sir
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Not done just yet
According to Goold, Cards may promote 4 from Memphis by next wknd: Freese, Craig, T Greene and Ring (per Miklasz tweet)
I bleed Cardinal red.
Goold better not be messing with us
Craig? really?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Here's to hoping the Fish is slick and nasty today.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The bellhop.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR
well played
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
1-AA team who cares
Didn’t go today in my one man protest to scheduling these patsy wins.
Not afraid to nitpick
I have a friend who goes to Furman
and I feel very sorry for her, but at the same time, happy for Mizzou.
I bleed Cardinal red.
i read an article about it, and now i have a lot more respect for these things
Mizzou is paying Furman $450m for this game, which is more than Furman would make for a general home game. The money is going to the general school budget. Honestly, I wish more of the major teams would play these games, as much as anything as a boost to the general education budgets of smaller schools. Yes, its a worthless football game. But a chance to help the education fund of smaller schools by having the “haves” pay the “have-nots” is a worthwhile thing any day.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
clint dempsey and ricardo clark went to furman
i didn’t realize they had an american football team though
actually
i figure the soccer team would have beat their football team in football back when they had rico and clint… those two are studs
Meh, they can pick a "have not" who just sucks and isn't playing with a different dimension of talent
I assume you mean 450K.
Side note: the scary thing with this recession is that state governments are cutting scholarships despite the fact that every dollar spent to send a kid to college who otherwise couldn’t/wouldn’t is repaid and then (a lot) some in extra future tax dollars. I wish politicians were required to take some econ it’s fuckin maddening.
Not afraid to nitpick
I am all for economists in politics
But, like they always say, an economist is just somebody who’s too smart for their own good, not smart enough for anybody else’s.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
450K is nothing in the scope of things
Besides they more than broke even with this game
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, that too
/dual majored in economics and finance
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a hard time imagining Mizzou paying Furman $450 million dollars for this game
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 19, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
for 450m you could build and stock a college
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 19, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
$450,000
According to some article I read (I think it was a Post-Dispatch thing), that is what Mizzou is paying Furman to come to Columbia.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 19, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone notice pujols' assists this year?
169… career high
34 more than last year (which had been his previous high)
i dunno, just found slightly interesting
i just looked it up
mark grace has the national league record at 180… while the major league record is 184 by bill buckner
i’d imagine those are in jeopardy
As a Tennessee fan
how many seconds into the first quarter will I be forced to break out the first Franklin.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
It's not his fault he's stuck with Crompton
And he’s a good recruiter. I have faith in him just not this season.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
California guys should...
just stay in California. You can light your hair on fire in LA and nobody cares. In Knoxville, every move is chronicled.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Well it's already neccessary thanks Brandon James!
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 19, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Not so sure...
$10M a year seems close to be the going rate for averagish pitcher with some upside, see Suppan, Jeff. Hell, even Weaver got one year at $9M.
That cost just underscores the importance of finding cost-controled options for somewhat fungible players. More importantly given the risk associated with these young and or cheap guys, it seems very important to devlop a stable full of ’em.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
I might would have given him 10M/yr without an NTC and less years.
Unless you are an elite player, you don’t get an NTC. Unless you are willing to take a shorter contract and less guarrateed money and more performance-based incentives.
I have never really understood how teams like SD and Pitt do so poorly, they always seem to have good talent from their farm system. But yes you need to develope your own pitchers and in bunches.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 19, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
man chuck, i wish you would have sent somthing like this to MO before he resigned Bubbles
last year was a fluke, the real Bubbles is standing up. freak forearm injury or no freak forearm injury, he has always sucked & he will always suck.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
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