At least it wasn't the NLDS
by DanUpBaby on Sep 14, 2009 2:59 AM EDT
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PrintLet's pull that Ryan Franklin quote again—
I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals and their fans]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."
Yeah, that sounds about right.
This mini-crisis is a great time to considerwhere we are now as to where we were back in April—now that the Cardinals are not completely invincible it's worth thinking about. The bullpen, for instance:
Where we were then: I couldn't find a quote quite representative enough, so if I may channel myself, circa March—
I love this bullpen. Love love love love. There are about a million players in it, and they're all young and cheap, and maybe we should trade Ryan Franklin for a season ticket package or just put him on a bus somewhere with all the other old people so that I can watch all these cost-controlled, thoroughbred right-handers compete for the closer's role. These guys are so crazy and awesome that they flip out ALL the time.
Where we are now:
I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals relief pitchers, opposing batters]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."
The Cardinals' vaunted relief Whiz Kids have seen attrition from both sides; on one, Jason Motte struggles with throwing the ball past opposing hitters and Kyle McClellan has trouble throwing it near them, and on the other several pitchers are throwing the ball for other teams.
Taken in isolation I can't really argue with either of the major deals that siphoned off relief depth; Mark Worrell and (erstwhile throw-in) Luke Gregerson was a small price to pay for what seemed like an upgrade at shortstop, and Chris Perez and Jess Todd was the going rate for a guy who, for a brief time, seemed like he would upgrade multiple positions at once.
But I don't think either of these trades can be seen as a win for Mozeliak, or even as an extenuating-circumstances draw; these are flat-out misses. In the Khalil Greene deal—my favorite of the two moves, even now, for its ingenuity—Mozeliak bet some of his bullpen strength on a cheap way to upgrade for this year. In that way it resembles a deadline deal, only with a full year of that deadline-deal magic (you know, Al, it really does); there's no potential future benefit to hedge against the flags flying forever. I'd argue that it was a gamble the Cardinals were justified in making, but so far they've gambled wrong on both sides; Khalil Greene hasn't turned into Khalil Greene, and Luke Gregerson—78 K in 65 innings, a .434 OPS against righties—has turned into Russ Springer.
The DeRosa deal has to be looked at in its very fleeting context—after the Greene deal and the Motte/McClellan problems were noticeable, before the Holliday and Lugo deals rendered his positional versatility basically useless. That they cancel each other out seems only fitting for a deal that's a complex win or a complex loss.
The Greene deal meant that the Cardinals could no longer trade from the bottom of their relief deck; the fungible relievers weren't quite so fungible anymore. But their subsequent dealings might be more damaging to the DeRosa rationale; as a straight replacement at third base DeRosa, especially the one they got, was a major offensive improvement but not a worldbeater. During his time with the Cardinals he's been worth a little less than a win over Thurston's year-to-date offensive levels. (Defense—charitably—has been a wash.) That's a good upgrade, as far as deadline deals go, but it's not the one they paid for.
The upgrade they paid for was three-headed—they could put him at third against right handers and pair him with Khalil Greene to spell Skip Schumaker or the Duncan/Ankiel Platoon of Despair that was stuck in left field. Then they traded for Julio Lugo to spell Skip Schumaker; they they traded for Matt Holliday to replace the P.O.D. Then he was the starting third baseman. I appreciate not having to watch Joe Thurston every day, but Chris Perez has proven what we really knew anyway—he's the best of the Cardinals young relievers, and he was traded at a moment when the Cardinals realized they needed them more than they'd thought.
Now the Cardinals have to worry about Ryan Franklin, who is not, it can be said, at this point, finding some new talent level. Over the course of his last two seasons as a Cardinal he's proven himself to be a Pretty Good reliever. Unless some new information comes to light in the next two weeks, that's probably what he's going to be. It's tough having him as your top right-hander, but that's different from having to worry about him if you carry a lead into the ninth inning—most relievers will save most games most of the time. He's not going to go oh-fer a series. The problem is getting the lead to him with the pitchers that are left.
But if you're worried that Franklin might be totally cooked now, your real concern ought to be the rotation—it's Franklin writ large, but with much better players. Certainly Wainwright might really be this good; certainly Carpenter was once this good and this healthy; certainly Joel Pineiro, uh, has had a fine season. But all at once? That's how World Series teams are made, to be honest—lots of players peaking at once, some who you never thought had it in them. But it's only clear that those players kept it together long enough to see their Norm Cash years through in hindsight.
Tonight, of course, Todd Wellemeyer—the stopper—makes it clear that there's no need to worry.
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Boy I am SO PUMPED
to see 38-year old Ryan Franklin pitching for us in 2 years time. After we gave him that really necessary $4m extension. Awesome!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
We are rewarding him...
just like we did Carp before the 2007 season. That turned out great…no?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
we had 41, 42 yr old dennis eckersley close for us for 2 years while he was way past his prime.
and he did decently in the role, after he left the closer role was kinda undefined for a few years until we got isringhausen.
Cardwash Definition: Birds on the Nat.
I think this is where Rick Ankiel can thrive hitting in front of Pujols--OHHH YEAHHHH!!!!!!!
CHUGS LARUE
The difference
is that Eck had been an elite closer at one time, Franklin’s been an elite closer for exactly 4 months of 2009 at age 36. I’d rather have Trever Hoffman at Franklin’s price for sure, just because he’s been there before. He might not be as good as he was in the early part of the decade, but he’s at least a stabilizing force back there. I wouldn’t want him for $8M, but at $4M I’d take him
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yeah
Dennis Eckersley /= Ryan Franklin. Not really a sensible comparison.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
In less sarcastic news
I think the real concerning sight of the last couple of days has been Lohse getting shelled. He’s been really poor (admittedly with the injury issues) since the first couple of months of the season. I think there’s a legitimate concern that he might not be much more than a #5 starter going forward, which sort of puts the potential Holliday deal in perspective – can we honestly afford to give him $15-20m next year when our rotation is going to be Wainwright, the injury-prone Carpenter, two question marks, and Kyle Lohse?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
He's always been a back on the rotation starter
This just didn’t happen this year. He’s a .500 pitcher, pitching like a .500 pitcher.
The stars lined up last year for him and we are the ones that got caught.
But you make very good points about the potential Holliday money. And we have to have money for Albert.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 14, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, one more thing.
I’m hoping that now that Smoltz shoulder is bothering him we will snap back to reality and not entertain thougths of signing a 42 year old with a “bum” shoulder.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 14, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I still think a $5m incentive-laden deal for Smoltz would be good
I’d rather do that than sign Pineiro to 3/$30m (not that I don’t think the “new” Pineiro won’t be worth that, but I’d rather we had some money to spend in 2011 and 2012, rather than maxing out the payroll in the medium-term).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
and piniero's history was good years in seattle/bad years in SEA/BOS/good year in STL/bad year/good year sorta pitching
who knows if he’ll be able to stick with it next year or not
Cardwash Definition: Birds on the Nat.
I think this is where Rick Ankiel can thrive hitting in front of Pujols--OHHH YEAHHHH!!!!!!!
CHUGS LARUE
god, this sentiment annoys me
this injury-riddled year must be representative!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
??--Boggs and Garcia
Boggs has a big-league arm. Saturday’s game showed me that he has little consistency in his release point. Ergo, no control. But his breaking stuff had great movement and his FB was electric. If he improves his mechanics, I think he could be #3.
Haven’t seen Jaime but love the idea of LH starter. I’m pulling for him and the Redbirds in the PCL championship.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
just gotta say
JAIME GARCIA!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm happy to have Boggs & Garcia vie for one spot in the rotation
but giving them BOTH a guaranteed spot next year does not, IMO, a contending rotation make. This moves EVERYONE up a slot, which leaves us horribly exposed in case of injury (which, as we’ve seen the last few years, is not an “if” but a “when”). Our next starter in line will be Thompson, who is awful as a starter, or PJ Walters, who has spent the end of the season getting shelled at AAA. If we have TWO injuries at any point you’re basically running out a rotation largely comprised of below-average or replacement level arms and one ace, aka the 2009 San Diego Padres.
Also, Boggs does not look likely to go beyond 6 innings in any start and, as a first-year guy in the rotation (who has occasionally had his own problems throwing strikes in the minors), we can’t really expect Garcia to average much more than 5 per start. This means an awful lot of guys like Thompson, Kinney, KMac etc. and potentially puts a lot more innings on the arms of our relievers who may actually be above average.
I like Boggs. I like Garcia. But we’re going to be awfully stretched in relief, AND crossing our fingers and trusting to a lack of injuries, if we guarantee them TWO starter spots next year. I think we really need to spend some money and bring in a short-term mid-rotation guy (there’s quite a few on the FA market, ranging from long-shot damaged goods guys to folks who have been successful but will be slightly devalued due to age/injury).
The two spots we may need to fill externally (LF & 3B) we actually have potential internal stop-gaps for; Lugo, Freese or Craig could all do a job at 3B, and Craig & Mather could do a job for a year in LF I expect. Behind Garcia and Boggs, however, we suddenly don’t have a lot of major league-ready starting pitching (I’m discounting Ottavino and Lynn, who both need at least one more year at AAA, and Thompson and Walters, because they look marginal at best).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
i agree
that the best move is to sign one FA pitcher on a short term deal. That might mean smoltz. Is piniero a type B? It might be worth offering him arb.
Definitely offer arb to Pineiro...
No way he accepts.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
From what I hear, Pin's a B
and unlikely to hit “A”. I say we offer arb, he’ll turn us down, and then we offer, say, 2 years $20m. It almost certainly won’t be enough but on the off-chance no one else wants him, it’d be a nice deal and still leave us cash for Holliday.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
:=8(
<————— curled up in a fetal position, rocking back and forth:
“Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible, Chris Carpenter is invincible…”
:=8.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
The paraphrase Denny Green...
He IS was we THOUGHT HE WAS! AND WE LET HIM OFF THE HOOK!!!
Thanks, Denny — back to blaming assistant coaches and firing them for no reason.
That’s Kyle Lohse — he’s a 4th starter who got 3rd starter money based on a career year. Out only hope, Skywalker, is to get someone to trade something for him to get a cheap starter next year since the team trading for him will have payroll flexibility in 2011 and 2012. I don’t think that this is going to happen, though, so let’s pray he figures out what made him good last year OR hope he figures out how to throw moar sinkers a la Piniero.
Question marks? I don’t know if I’d go that far. I think Boggs and Garcia both have the potential to be as good or better than 4th and 5th starter material, Lynn has struggled towards the end of this year (but it’s the first time he’s been stretched out more than 100 innings in a season too) but he’s still a pretty good prospect and I think he’ll move up in the rankings based on his solid year at AA, and here’s hoping that Shelby Miller can make like Rick Porcello and move through the organization quickly. Considering how rapidly the team has been promoting players in the minors, if he’s the real deal, I would think he’ll get a shot to make and impact in a couple of years. There’s a lot of potential there, a lot more than I would have admitted just last spring.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I may be crazy
but I want to see what Lohse does when he’s injury-free. And also his BFF turned into a pumpkin.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Injury-free?
Or post-Dave-Duncan-induced-magical-career-turnaround injury free?
He’s never been hurt his whole career until this year, and he’s pretty much the same pitcher in all of those years as he’s been this season.
- FIP: Career – 4.54; 2009 – 4.56
- K/BB: Career – 2.05; 2009 – 1.94
- tRA: Career – 5.34; 2009 – 5.21
Let’s face it — last year sure looks like a career year, and when you think about all the factors going into it, it probably was:
- Held out for a big money contract that he didn’t get, then signed late in ST with the Cards for pennies so he could prove himself.
- Was 29 years old last year, about the time for him to peak as a starting pitcher.
- If he doesn’t pitch well last year, he’s a 30 year old free agent #4 starter in an environment that doesn’t reward those type of pitchers with huge free agent dollars. His back was against the wall.
He pitched like a #3 starter and got paid like one, and has now reverted back into a #4 or #5 starter that he has been all along.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I do not think I was saying what you thought I said.
I want to see what he does.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
All I'm saying
is that his “injury-riddled” year of 2009 looks a lot like the non-injured years from 2001-2007. I’m just not sure the he’s going to ever look like the Kyle Lohse from 2008 that we paid 4Y$40M for.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
well, I disagree.
mostly on the basis of ‘not enough information’ aka next year is not here yet.
I think you will end up being right, but I want to see it unfold for myself. I can’t just throw out the mental and physical toll of the sheer bizarreness of his DL stints.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I think fourstick..
is likely to turn out right in the end as well…but the first two months of 2009 have me holding out hope that his ability is somewhere between what he has done this season and what he did in 2008. Why is it that contracts that seem REALLY bad upfront usually end up that way?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
because the contract is terrible.
i tend not to see the contract and the pitcher as a singular conglomerate, though. like a Boogñeiro.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
so, logically
wouldn’t he be better when he’s healthy?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Not unless you're sure that his struggles are due to injury
Logically, shouldn’t Chris Carpenter have struggled a month or so after being injured in April? But he didn’t. Just because a guy’s been injured doesn’t mean you should attribute his decrease in performance just to the injury.
You don’t KNOW that Lohse’s struggles are due to being hurt. My point is that his line this year looks a lot like his line for the entire rest of his career, so, logically, it makes sense that last year was a career year and that he’s regressed to who he’s always been.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i really can't express just how much i hate Bubbles contract
it was a stupid stupid move by the FO & MO. but i also don’t think he’s as bad as he’s been, nor do i think he’s been as good as he was in 08. the only thing i do know is he’s not worth half of what the Cards are paying him.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
I'm not sure how literal you were being...
but he’s worth $7-8M/year I’d say…when healthy. That’s well over half of what he’s making.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
he's averaged a little over 2 WAR/yr for the last 4 or 5 years
and has generally been fairly durable (until this year) which makes him worth a little under $10m/yr. Of course, in the current economic climate, it’s becoming somewhat easier to sign SP for a bit less than they’re worth on the FA market, and we have to factor in his likely decline phase (as he’ll be 34 and in his 11th full MLB season as a starting pitcher at the end of it).
So he’s likely worth a bit more than $5m/yr, but a bit less than $10m/yr, and is in no way the sort of guy we want to give either a 4-year contract (into his likely decline years) to or, worst of all IMO, a no-trade clause that makes dumping him nigh on impossible.
However, as fourstick says, it’s striking how close his 2009 line and his career line are:
2009: 5.72 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9, 4.56 FIP
Career: 5.63 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9, 4.54 FIP
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference is that his career has mainly come in hitters ballparks or in the american league
For him to put up his career numbers in the NL central in St. Louis is much more disappointing. The “Good” news is that a lot of it appears to be injury, or luck related:
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/8/7/979394/kyle-lohses-triumphiant-return
I just re-ran the numbers on Lohse, and his stuff is still lacking separation and he’s been getting squeezed somewhat overall this year.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Acually, PFX data of him pre and post injury shows his FB and change are getting muddled together.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
His fastball velocity has declined since being injured
That is almost certainly affecting his pitching and it is a direct consequence of being injured.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
that is crazy
you want to see what lohse can do when he’s not injured? after a year and then a month to start this year of #2 stuff?
madness!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Why are you so sure he's that good? And he isn't #2 good, he was #3 good last year.
He’s been that good for one season in his career. One. He only has one other season where he’s even in the same ballpark as that year. So your statements are no more ridiculous than anything the rest of us have been saying in this thread.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He was a 3.1 WAR player last year
which is about average for a #2 starter. So maybe “average #2, #3 on a contender/top team” would be a fairer way to describe it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s Kyle Lohse — he’s a 4th starter who got 3rd starter money based on a career year. Out only hope, Skywalker, is to get someone to trade something for him to get a cheap starter next year since the team trading for him will have payroll flexibility in 2011 and 2012.
He has a full no-trade clause. Which is the shit-flavoured cherry on top of his vomit-blancmange contract.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I know
I was thinking more along the lines of a competitive, deep pocketed team that needed a 5th starter who can eat innings and throw a solid outing every 2 or 3 starts. Like the White Sox, Angels, etc. I think he’d be crazy not to want to go there, which is the whole point.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I suppose
but why wouldn’t they just sign Brad Penny or Brett Myers, who are better, could probably be had for <$10m/yr, and who won’t cost any prospects to sign? I would give away Lohse for free if I could, but I’m not sure anyone would want him. There’s always back-of-the-rotation arms out there on the market, which is what makes giving up long-term money for them a bit of a waste IMO.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
This would be nice-
but it’s a fantasy. In the same way the Cubs can’t trade Soriano, the Jays are stuck with Wells, we’re probably stuck with Lohse, and luckily our albatross isn’t as large as those.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
repost
RT dgoold:
Carpenter had gone 228 starts since the last time he allowed as many as seven runs in one inning. Dates back to 1998.
So I checked for 6 or more run innings… Carp hasn’t had any lately.
6 or more run games:
6/30/09 vs Giants – 6 ER / 4R in 5th (singles, sac fly, double, error by Ankiel)
6/23/06 @ Detroit – 7 ER / 3R in 5th
5/19/06 @ KC – 6 ER / 3R in 2nd (Carp won. Wainwright closed.)
8/9/06 @ Cincinnati – 6 ER / 2R in 4th, 2R in 6th (Izzy blows save.)
9/21/06 @ Houston – 6 ER / 2R in 4th, 2R in 8th (home runs)
9/26/06 vs Padres – 6 ER / 4R in 7th (doubles)
9/23/05 @ Milwaukee – 9 ER / 4R in 5th
4/10/05 vs Phillies – 8 ER / 4R in 3rd (single, home run, bad bad day)
6/12/04 @ Texas – 7 ER / 4R in 4th (GS; Blalock pwned Carp)
7/11/04 vs Cubs – 6 ER / 4R in 3rd (single, Sosa homer)
[Toronto]
8/3/02 vs Orioles – 7 ER / 2R each in 1st, 3rd, 4th
4/1/02 @ Boston – 6 ER / 2R each in 2nd, 3rd (home runs)
hfs.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What happened yesterday?
I missed the game, so can someone fill me in on what Carp was doing wrong. Was he missing or were his pitches not sharp?
Also, was this my fault with the premature Carp Love post?
Sorry if it was.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
premature carp-ulation is a serious problem. 6ly.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
not to blame colby
but it would’ve been nice to see him dive for the first hit in that inning. Looked like he couldve got to it, but pulled up at the last second. At the time it looked like nothing, allowing a simple base hit. But, 6 runs later, not such a small thing.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I was thinking the same thing.
I can’t fault him if he feels this way but he seems adverse to dives. I can’t recall any diving catches I’ve seen from him but that could be my shoddy memory.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
whoa, this is a family blog.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
which blog are you reading?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i'm joking.
my other option was a rape whistle joke, but I thought it wouldn’t really fly.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
good call, rape isn't funny
just don’t feed him late at night clemsongirly, that’s all i ask
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
George Carlin
Imagine Porky Pig raping Donald Duck
The joke is funny, by and of itself. Beyond that, it never is.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
"My eyes started focusing, the way he dived and made that play"
Did you guys watch the video?
Testicle-exploding shit storm, circa 7/12/08 - We will never forget!
And that's a rhetorical question
since I know everyone here has watched it at least 10 times
Testicle-exploding shit storm, circa 7/12/08 - We will never forget!
Could it be left-over from the stomach problems?
He could be gun shy, in that respect. Or just afraid of missing and having it get by him.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
nothing to fear
about the ball getting past him in that situation. OF’ers are taught to be aggressive in that situation (2 outs, nobody on, and guys in a position to back them up). Only place they are told to be cautious is down the lines for corner guys because there is nobody in place to back them up. I think its more an issue of trusting himself to make the play. We all know he can do it, but until he gets some more experience in coming up with those kind of plays, he may be a little hesitant to sell out.
As for the stomach issues, I don’t really think that they would relate as the issue is more one having to do with eating habits than any physical trauma.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I agree that it is more of a trusting himself to make the play than anything.
I just was trying to fish for more ideas that might be plausible. The kid’s got the goods, he just doesn’t wanna make a fool of himself.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah agreed
he’s way too gunshy on the dives.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
don't listen! stay healthy, corky!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
didn't he dive last week (or sometime recently) and miss one?
I remember apeshit ensuing on the FSM broadcast
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Has Franklins slump corresponded with the acquisition of Smoltz?
Could it be a case of a guy looking over his shoulder?
i was hesitant to say that
but it’s been on the back of my mind lately.
That might also explain why Smoltz is adamant about starting. Well, partly. The more Smoltz talks about not being concerned with “storyline”…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
on balance, I don't think that's it.
it coincides with the new contract. TLR speculated about it.
The thing with Franklin is, he was less sharp when Izzy was there because he thought Izzy was more worthy in the role. Once you surround him with shaky kids, he steps up because someone has to do it. He’s more get’erdone, IMO. But he’s like an anti-closer. Once anointed, he slipped out of that get’erdone groove and the self-doubt started seeping in.
Someone commented incredulously that Frankie was taking the money and running, and the quotes and the body language just don’t bear that out. Frankie doesn’t want the prestige of closing. He just wants to get the job done. When they answered his last blown save by resting him for a whole series, I knew he’d just have more time to entertain those self-doubts, all the while watching Motte and K-Mac have decent outings.
Also:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/9/13/1028341/franklins-making-me-want-to-have#21128163
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
in other words... Franklin knows what he is
It’s a mistake to elevate him. He doesn’t want to be elevated. He wants to get the ball and work.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Do we get him a shrink,
or stop calling him the closer and yet let him be the closer?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
no, but treating him like he's got Izzy's last year's record might be a bad idea.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
also, this is the first time he's been a closer, right?
he’s like a n00b closer. making it more daunting will just throw him out of his groove.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I was kinda joking about the shrink,
but do we stop attaching the “closer” stigma to him and just let him close(this is in the ol Whiteyball “closer by commmitee” mindset), but with Franklin getting the ball in the ninth. I know that sounds wierd as hell but I can’t think of a better way to say it.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, that's the one
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
He's not the closer, but he's generally the last pitch
I like it.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
last ^to pitch
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
"I don't always close, but when I do, I'm the last to pitch."
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
There's a zen riddle in there somewhere.
If I can only find it.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I vote
that the next time Frankie comes up
we say “last pitcher sucks!!”
and avoid the c word.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I say we just zonk him out so he thinks he's been fishing all day
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Sep 14, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
4. Profit.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
smoltz
if that’s as big of a deal with him as the journalists are making it out to be, i’d rather not have him on the mound. grow up.
but i don’t think that’s it and nothing really points to it. the simplest explanation is more likely: franklin is coming back to earth after a great run.
Offensive problems are being overlooked
another two games scoring three or less runs. 14 of the last 25 games the Cards have scored 3 or less. Granted the pitching has been great in more than half those games so the team is 8-6 when in those 14 games. The only two losses when the Cards score 4 or more have been Franklin’s last two blown saves, where the team took the lead in the prior at bat.
NO MORE LOBSTERS.
ever since Holliday came in, the team got addicted to come from behind wins. Look! We can win when we’re behind!
Not sustainable. Stop getting behind in the first place. Absolutely the number one problem, next to staying healthy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
+1
Pre 7/22 — Albert & the Chipmunks
Post 7/22 — Albert, Lego & the Chipmunks
Chuckb said it best yesterday: our offense hinges on Ludwick’s production. When he’s on, we’re on.
I REALLY, REALLY wish Glaus were getting PAs. We need to see if he can step in.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
OT: question. who wants more Troy Glaus?
Just musing.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Me.
I would probably prefer to take a flyer on him than DeRosa next year, too, if both would be available for ~$5m….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
him too.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 5:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that Glaus > Craig = DeRosa = Freese
Or something like that. I definitely don’t think DeRosa is good enough to warrant a contract when we have two potential in house replacements who may be just as good. Glaus, OTOH, is the best player, but he comes with the most risk.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not much for proposing contracts
but if Derosa doesn’t accept 1year/8.5 million or 2/15 with an option for 7.5 to 9 million on both of those options, Glaus would be an affordable solution.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
the other concern with DeRo
is IF we’re signing Holliday, we really don’t have the money for DeRosa AND another SP. IMO, the rotation is more of a concern going forward, so we should commit to a cheaper solution at 3B (either Glaus on an incentive-laden deal, or someone like Freese/Lugo/Craig, or a combination thereof. As I’ve also said before, I wouldn’t be aversed to giving Khalil Greene a minor-league deal on the off-chance he works his problems out too).
I feel like we’ve got more internal options (and potential cheap external ones) at 3B than at SP/RP, so if we’re going to go for the “throw as much shit at the wall as possible and see what sticks” approach with any position, I’d rather go that way with 3B.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Totally agree...
but don’t think for a second that I’ve got your back when Freese or Mather hear that you called them shit!
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I got yer back Monk,
in a pick you up outta tha dirt kinda way.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with your thinking.
As much as I like DeRo, if it comes down to him or Holliday, gimme Holliday and an SP. It would have to a very incentive-laden deal for Glaus(I’ve had about all the recovery projects I can take for a while). I think we have plenty of options for 3B on hand as well as a 4th OF(no
more Ank or Thursty, pleez).
I like the idea of K-bot to MiB, get the dude a shrink and see where it goes, physically I can’t think he went to shit in a year and I always thought he was a decent SS.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
why not
offer derosa arb? there are better 3b options out there and in our own system if he doesn’t accept and if he does then at least the cards aren’t stuck with a multi year contract.
I think you offer them both (Glaus and DeRosa) arbitration actually
If one of them accepts, great. If they both accept, that’s ok — you’ve got your utility guy for next year and a starting 3B. If they both walk, both net 1st round draft picks hopefully.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm scared Glaus gets...
$10mil+ if he accepts the offer, and he’d be crazy to decline! Maybe he’s healthy and worth the $10M…maybe he’s not an everyday 3B anymore. I don’t offer arby to Glaus if it’s me. I think you hope that Derosa accepts arby or a no more than 2 year deal, and if not let Freese/Mather have first crack at it and spend the money elsewhere.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I dunno
the third base market this year SUCKS. It’s filled with guys who are either over the hill or close to it (Melvin Mora, Figgins) or coming back from injuries (DeRosa, Beltre), or who are injured all the time (Crede). I would think that a team needing a third baseman would have to look strongly at Troy Glaus on a 2 or 3 year deal. I think he may very well test the market even if we offer arb, and I don’t see him getting more than $10M, and he was easily worth that last year.
The problem is that we don’t know what payroll is going to be set at, we don’t know if they truly are interested in signing Holliday, we really don’t know much of anything right now. There’s too many unknowns.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Chone Figgins isn't that close to the hill
He’s had a pretty big year, he’s something like a +5 to +10 defender (yes I’m aware of this year’s UZR that is prone to lots of error…) and he’s managed to improve his walk rate every year.
Not afraid to nitpick
I'm not high on him
and here’s why:
- He’ll be 32 by the start of next season and his speed is what makes him valuable. Speed guys who don’t slug anything don’t age well after age 32, as we’ve seen numerous times.
- He’s probably a more valuable 2nd baseman than 3rd baseman, as he has a .339 wOBA career and a .361 wOBA this year. In a crappy crop of 3B, he’d be one of the top ones, but I think I’d rather take a flier that Glaus can put up his career average .367 wOBA (just 4 points worse than Figgins’ career high, btw) than give long term dollars to Figgins.
- He was a .319 wOBA player last year, and while he was hurt a lot last year, isn’t that why you would rather have him than Glaus? Injuries?
- You’re going to be bidding against the Angels for his services, and I get the feeling that they’ll pony up a lot to keep him. I don’t think he’s worth more than 3Y$25M, and he’ll likely get more than that.
*All data from Fangraphs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
he has a cool name.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
too short.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you totally on Figgins
I think he could end up joining Gary Matthews and Torriiiiiii Hunter on the Anaheim Bad Contract Express.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
So
He’s younger than Glaus, he is projected to hit nearly as well (.332 wOBA to a .338 wOBA for Glaus) and plays better defense.
Plus, with the exception of last year, he has never been injured before. The same cannot be said of Glaus. If they are in the same price range, I would 100% take Figgins over Glaus.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
They won't be in the same price range!
no way. Figgins has been a 6+ win player this year (pro-rated). He is going to get a BIG contract, with at least 3, if not 4 years on it. I can see him being a start player the next two years and then falling off a bit.
I think Glaus won’t make $10m, and will be on a 1-year deal.
I think Figgins will get about 3/$40m, or at the barest of minimums, 3/$35m (which would actually be a good deal for a player of his quality). The astounding thing about him in the last two years is that he’s suddenly discovered how to take a walk (and at a pretty astoundingly high rate) after the age of 30, and yet continued to be a good contact hitter. He’s one of the better lead-off guys in baseball right now, and I expect he’ll get paid like it.
I just feel he’s got a good shot of falling off somewhat in his mid-30s, however, so I wouldn’t want to give him the 4 years he’ll likely need to lure him away from Anaheim (I expect we’ll also have to beat the $ value of the contract).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I meant star player, not “start player”.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Figgins may be undervalued
Due to most of his value coming from walks and defense. But yeah, apon further thought, he may be out of our price range.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions
he's hit .300 this year and I think he'll have well over 100 runs when all's said and done
he’s also got the fan-favourite/exciting player tag going on, which I guess might push his value up a bit. I don’t think he’ll end up being a huge bargain.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the type A status would...
not only scare clubs away from signing Glaus if he were offered arby and declined, but I think it would also scare Glaus from declining knowing that he’d likely get more through arby for next year than he will through FA. If he thinks he’s healthy he’s better off to let next year be a make-good year and get a better contract in 2011. Beltre, Mora, Tejada and Feliz are all type B’s and Crede isn’t even a type B. What teams might be interested in Glaus at this point? The Giants, Phillies…
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
scare clubs away from signing Glaus if he were offered arby and declined, but I think it would also scare Glaus from declining knowing that he’d likely get more through arby for next year than he will through FA.
I think that’s a self-fulfilling prophecy more than actual reality. Players misjudge the market all the time. If he’s healthy and willing to prove it to any team interested, I think he’ll take the leap of faith that some team will want him. The Cardinals did themselves no favors last year with their handling of arbitration eligible players, and it was well documented here at VEB. I think this stems from the organization vastly overvaluing the market early and then letting guys go who could have helped the team this year (Springer) and who would have netted us draft picks had they signed elsewhere. I don’t want to see that happen again this year.
I think our differences lie in that I would be fine having Troy Glaus back on a 1Y$10M deal if he accepts arbitration. He’s a right handed, gets on base a lot, and can hit home runs when healthy. It’s not a long term contract and he’ll be looking to acquire one last long term deal with his play next year. I think that’s a good gamble on a talented player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
IF Glaus is healthy
I agree. I just feel that’s a reasonably big “IF” given his recent history.
I feel that we’ve got some money to spend next year, and a couple of good spots to spend it. If Holliday will take something like 15-18m/yr on a 5-year deal, that seems like good value long-term and I’d like to see him back. Obviously Pujols needs extending sooner rather than later, and I think we’re going to end up costing ourselves serious $ if we don’t buy out Colby’s arby and first couple of FA years soon – the Rays got a great deal on Longoria by giving him that contract before he’d played much at MLB level, and our window of opportunity to get that sort of bargain deal on Colby could be closing soon.
Add to that the fact that we (IMO, at least) really need to add a short-term SP (more so than we need a 3B) and I just don’t think we’ve got $10m to sink into the 3B spot. Going by your roster/payroll matrix earlier in the year, I reckon we might have $25-30m to spend on free agency targets next year (assuming no major bump in payroll, and not including the possible Pujols/Colby extensions), and Holliday will eat up more than half of that. Give Glaus a shot at $10m and we’ve basically spent all our money.
Of course, letting Holliday walk might not be a bad plan either, that changes the level of the playing field as it allows us to offer arby to everyone; we see where the pieces finish (probably with DeRo in LF and Glaus at 3B, plus draft picks for Holliday and Pineiro and $10m to spend on starting pitching – so not bad at all, really).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That assumes Colby wants to sell himself short
I get the feeling he’s more Upton brothers than Longoria in that regard though. In any case, we’re not gettin him for 17M like Longo, I think we’d be looking at more Chris Young of the D-backs (5 years 28M, option for the 6th) anyway.
The least we could even offer Glaus would be 9M btw. No way he’d get that on the open market after this totally lost season.
Not afraid to nitpick
I think we’d be looking at more Chris Young of the D-backs (5 years 28M, option for the 6th)
I could go for that.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
That'd be fine with me
But like I said, I have no real basis for saying this but I doubt Rasmus goes for that anyway. Then again his agent is the same guy who did Longoria’s joke.
I still picture Rays management all in a room getting ready to make the call to Cohen holding back their laughter:
PC: “*ring…ring…This is Paul Cohen”
AF: “Hey Paul this is Andrew…shut up guys cough…so, we’re prepared to offer a generous 6 year/17.5M guaranteed deal.”
PC: “Okay that sounds good”
AF: “Wait what? I mean okay okay…[muffled laughter] SHUT UP[/muffled laughter]…but that comes with the condition that we get a 7.5M option in year 7.”
PC: “That works for Evan”
AF: “No way.”
PC: “Yep”
AF: "Uhhhh, in that case, we’re also gonna need two more option years in 8 and 9 for 11.5M [crosses fingers]
PC: “Done deal.”
Click
Queue riotous laughter.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Sep 14, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
Just for reference
We’re talking about guaranteeing Glaus 9M this off season going into 2010. Longoria by the time 2015 comes around could blow out his shoulder and be out for most of the year, come back for September and be awful and that option would be a no brainer.
Not afraid to nitpick
I'd be surprised if Colby signs something long term.
I worry that there’s some lingering distrust between him and the organization.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
lol
rec’d
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Except those players (plus hanley) all put up great offensive numbers,
wheras Colby’s primary value has been in his undervalued D. I bet he signs cheaper than Young.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Cherry pick much?
Chris Young hit 30 HRs (not great offense, but flashy and overvalued) and got an idiotic contract from Byrnes.
Colby has already been more valuable than Young’s best season, but his value is all defense and position. Are you saying we should replicate the idiotic move of the D’Backs?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Wow
You compare Colby Rasmus’ potential contract directly to Chris Young’s, also saying Chris Young’s value was tied more to his hitting than anything else. I point out Young didn’t even hit much better if at all with basic stuff…and that’s cherry picking? Could I have even made a more direct counterpoint? Or do you only value HRs?
On top of it, you’re saying Rasmus is better than Young, yet Rasmus is going to get less money at basically the same stage in his career?
And I hate to break this news, but defense isn’t being that undervalued anymore by any agent or GM with a clue. I’m pretty sure Paul Cohen and John Mozeliak are aware of fangraphs.
Not afraid to nitpick
First- it was you who brought up Young in the first place,
Rasmus will sign for less because he hit less homers and his value is derived mostly from his D. Defense is still undervalued by most GMs and agents, and Young’s contract was a dumb one. We do not have to replicate that mistake.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
And
You responded with something about Chris Young. Should I respond with non-sequiturs?
And it makes sense to compare them because they play the same position and had similar offensive seasons park adjusted in everything but home runs (and Josh Byrnes is a saber guy, he knows better than to look exclusively at HRs)…aside from UZR’s take on his defense which would give Rasmus more money—-and regarding that I certainly would have thought Young was + the times I’ve watched him.
In any case, if Rasmus signs for less than 5/28M, I’ll be utterly shocked. I get the feeling he’s a year-to-year till free agency guy with all the drama about his callup. Not to mention he’s still getting benched from time to time for an inferior player…
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't have a horse in this particular race
but as an aside – is it not possible that MLB teams actually have more sophisticated means to measure defence than metrics like UZR? A lot of Colby’s perceived “value” as we’re putting it (which should exceed 3 WAR this year) is based on his defence, which is measured over a small sample size by an imperfect metric.
Could it be possible that either
a) His glove’s not as valuable as our imperfect data would suggest, meaning he’s not as valuable as we think?
or
b) The defensive metrics/scouting/analysis that MLB teams use (which I’m pretty certain will be more in-depth than merely looking at his UZR over 400-odd innings) may value him differently to how we do?
I think there’s a certain amount of food for thought there. I tend to feel he’ll be offered (if anything) slightly less than what we’d value him at based purely on his FanGraphs WAR this year due to either or both of the above.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I doubt that teams have that much better metrics
MGL is really freakin smart and he actually pays for the best data out there. I highly doubt that major league teams have access to much better data than what BIS offers, and they probably don’t have a better calibrated system than what MGL worked out.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd bet a lot of money they do
There’s millions of dollars on the line for a team to figure out a system that is just a few runs better. I can’t remember who it was but someone who had access to team data stores said they were light years ahead of public stuff.
Not afraid to nitpick
It was Will Carrol
And he’s prone to Hyperbole.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome argument
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 16, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Carroll said that
but there was also a comment by Dan Fox recently that would seem to indicate something similar. I give Fox a lot more credibility since he, you know, understands metrics and Carroll just talks out of his ass.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
true but he was also about 8 years old
and had (seemingly) some growth to come. I wonder if Colby’s a bit nearer to the finished article?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It depends on where you think payroll is going
I’m not sure where it’s going yet, and how the Holliday thing works itself out will tell us a lot about it, imo.
I think the org might be smart to bump up payroll next year to keep Glaus at $9M to $10M. Think about it this way: With Glaus at that next year and Holliday on board, the payroll in 2011 and 2012 with all the raises due will be nearly what it is next year if we offer arb to everyone and Glaus and DeRosa accept. Is this something I expect? No, I’m just saying that it might be a smart idea.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Re: Glaus
I don’t think there’s any reason to offer him arbitration. If you offer he’s going to accept guaranteed so there’s no draft pick incentives and if you really wanted to keep him, you could win the bidding at less than 9M.
Not afraid to nitpick
How do you know this?
If you offer he’s going to accept guaranteed so there’s no draft pick incentives
You can’t guarantee that he accepts. There’s no way for you to know that. I agree that we could decline offering him arbitration and then negotiate to bring him back, but there’s always the chance that he gets a good offer from someone else and takes it at around what we would have paid him in arbitration. If DeRosa is offered and then declines and doesn’t return, who the hell plays 3B for us next year? Do you think that we’re getting any of the other FA candidates for less than $9M a season? And some of them will cost us a draft pick to sign them and will probably require a long term deal. Not sure if I’m interested in doing either of those things.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't know it more than anyone here "knows" anything
How about we re-phrase this, Troy Glaus would be an absolute idiot not to take 10M. He has 17 bad ABs this season.
Not afraid to nitpick
Exactly
the arb process sets a nice salary floor for Glaus
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yeah.
Glaus is not getting $10m or even something like 2/16 on the FA market I don’t think. I’m pretty sure he’d accept arby, at his age and recent injury history, I think his big paydays are probably behind him.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
3b next year
If DeRosa is offered and then declines and doesn’t return, who the hell plays 3B for us next year?
Allen Craig I hope.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
Why not Glaus?
Just b/c we shouldn’t offer him arb doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in the conversation.
Shut up, Fritz™.
He is probably only a slight upgrade over Craig or Freese
And willl cost at least 5 million more.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno, there's a pretty high upside there
he’s one year removed from being a 5 WAR player. The three seasons prior to that he averaged 3.5 WAR.
He’s had a serious injury, and he’s 33, but his value has never been predicated on exceptional defence (he’s varied between average and poor at 3B, and has looked OK to my eyes since coming back), and his offensive skill-set is of the sort that tends to age gracefully (lots of walks, lots of HR).
If he’s healthy, it’s not a huge stretch to suggest he’s got a chance of hitting 3-4 wins again, and by keeping him we retain depth (and potentially allow ourselves the leeway to trade one of the 3B guys, I suppose, not that that should be a major determining factor).
Craig/Freese really don’t look terribly likely to be above average at 3B. Craig’s great season has been MLE’d (from what I’ve read) at about a .750 OPS (not sure about his MLE wOBA), and his defence is likely a wash with Glaus, and there seems to be considerable doubt about Freese’s bat at the MLB level, despite his good defence. I suspect one (or both) of them could be a 2 WAR player, and there’s always Lugo, but I just feel that the upside of a healthy Glaus is quite a bit higher than this.
Ultimately, it all comes down to our ability to project his injury status next year – something I don’t have a great deal of trust in this organisation to do. If there are major question marks, he’s probably not worth offering a contract to, but if we feel there’s a 70%+ chance of him being reasonably healthy, I feel that a $5m+incentives (that could ultimately become, say, about $10m with an appropriate number of PAs) might be the way to go. We’ve still got Freese to back him up, and Craig should get a fair number of PAs in the OF (hopefully).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Glaus is probably a good player going forward
He also is 33, comes with significant injury and performance risks, and will cost a decent ammount of money.
Craig, OTOH, has put up wOBA of .400, ..386 and .400 over the past three years; and in his most recent year in AAA, his MLE was for a .768 OPS, which is above average at the major league level.
Freese is a bit of a mystery. His numbers have been great in the minors, both offensively and defensively, and he’s never gotten a shot to play (due to injuries this year of course).
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project those two as 1.5-2 WAR players going forward. The question is if Glaus is a 3 WAR player (which I think we both agree on), does that extra production cancel out the extra cost and injury risk? I would say probably not.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions
This place has gotten a lot more...
violent since I left it for the weekend. I wonder if there might be some outside event that could have caused some tension…hmmm
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I blame thepainguy
apparently bloody violence > swearing.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I blame Carp
I’m just quoting his eyes.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
Concise...
but perfect.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say you're right...
on the (un)willingness to give $10M to Glaus being the difference between where you are and where I am. I just feel 3B is a spot we could save money next year if we don’t get the deal we want…Pineiro at 1yr/$10M is a deal I’m good with cause SP is hard to come by.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
oh hell yeah
no way he takes that though. I’d be surprised if someone doesn’t find at least 3/30 for him (which I would be in favour of, if it weren’t for the Lohse deal).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Couldn't agree more...
especially on the () part.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
As cardsfanbub said
I don’t think we can risk offering Glaus arby. I think he’d probably accept and probably get a better deal than I’d want to pay him.
DeRosa and Pineiro are no-brainers, though – we offer both arby, even though we can probably only afford one of them. Pin won’t accept, but there’s a chance DeRo does – in which case, we get a cheap-ish 3B for one year, which is fine.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok
Here’s what I don’t get with this line of thinking: If you’re offering DeRosa arbitration to have him come back and start at 3B next year, why is he a more “affordable” solution than Glaus? He’s likely to get $8M+ in arbitration if he accepts, is going to have offseason wrist surgery (meaning he’s probably an equally likely candidate not to be himself next year), and when they’re both healthy, Glaus is clearly the superior player both offensively and defensively at 3B. In other words, I’d rather have Glaus for $10M starting at 3B than DeRosa for $8M starting at 3B, because I’m likely to get a better return on my investment with Glaus even though he’s making $2M more a year.
I could understand if you bring him back in a utility role, but if it’s one or the other to start at 3B, I’m offering Glaus and letting DeRosa walk or offering them both — but I’m certainly not waving good-bye to Glaus and offering DeRosa arby. That just doesn’t make any sense to me.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't think DeRosa will accept arbitration, whereas I think Glaus is almost certain to.
I don’t especially want either of them back for that sort of price, though if DeRo gets similar to his current contract (possible after a down year) he could net closer to $6m, which is more palatable.
The main difference is I’m prepared to risk the possibility DeRosa weighed against the (IMO) certainty that Glaus will.
Also, my preferred scenario (which I mentioned in another thread) is for DeRo to turn down arby & walk and then for us to lowball Glaus on a $5m + incentives contract. I actually prefer Glaus to DeRo (as you said) because, healthy, he’s the superior player.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
this time I'm hoping
the overwhelming love for Of the Rose in the clubhouse is not outweighing Glaus’s possible value to the club. They might end up about the same, esp in terms of injury risk, but their personalities are like night and day.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure how the timing of thise would work though
Also, my preferred scenario (which I mentioned in another thread) is for DeRo to turn down arby & walk and then for us to lowball Glaus on a $5m + incentives contract. I actually prefer Glaus to DeRo (as you said) because, healthy, he’s the superior player.
Both would have to offered arb at the same time. If Glaus is offered and accepts (and DeRosa declines) why would he then take a $5M+Incentives contract when he’s sure to get more than that in arbitration? It goes against the reason to take arbitration in the first place. He could easily get a contract like that on the open market from someone, even if he is Type A. If you’re certain he’s accepting, then you have to either lowball him before arbitration (and not worry about what DeRosa does) or not offer him at all and then try and negotiate for the lower deal, knowing that you get nothing in return if he goes elsewhere. I think that’s a lot to gamble on when we’re talking about 2 possible top 50 picks in next years draft.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Glaus will get a min of $10M in Arbitration
That is 80% of his current contract. He will not get a deal worth $10M for one year on the open market. He would accept arbitration without doubt. $10M one year and allow him to rebuild his value.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
but you’re assuming that a team wouldn’t offer him a multi year deal for more money to keep the per year cost down. I think that’s a big assumption to make considering the crappy crop of FA 3B the next two years and the amount of teams who are looking for a good RH bat who can play corner infield.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
80% rule is only for pre free agents
The CBA has the 80% clause but only it only applies to players who are in their arbitration years, not to players who have 6 or more years experience. Per the cba, free agency section with bold added.
If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI; provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI.
Right
still, realistically, Glaus has been very good when he’s been healthy and has put up fairly gaudy numbers in the sort of things I imagine an arby panel will look at (HR, RBI etc). If he finishes the year on the diamond (and not on the treatment table) I find it hard to believe he won’t hit $10m. I suppose, again, this is a judgement call on the part of the org – if they feel there’s a chance (based, say, on past experience of these discussions) that the arby guys take the injuries into account and only offer $7-8m, then maybe it starts to swing it towards offering.
The lower it goes, the better for us – there’s more chance he says no (we get picks, yay!) and it’s a better risk-reward ratio on the deal if he says yes. I just don’t feel we can afford the ~$10m I think he’ll get, though, and don’t necessarily think it’ll be a very good deal, unless we’re very bullish about his health. Ultimately I’d rather spend the cash on Holliday, Albert and the rotation.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:22 AM EDT up reply actions
just to put the 2010 3b position discussion into perspective.
even if freese’s hitting doesn’t carry over to the MLs, he has a +12 TZR/150 and a +13 TZR/150 rating at third in 2007 and 2008.
Worst case is he turns into Brian Barden and puts together a way below average offensive year with a prime defensive year. Barden would have been worth about a win above replacement over 2009, mostly from his defense. i think freese is a better prospect than Barden, and so he’s probably more a 1.5-2 win player in 2010 (more if his bat pans out). I just don’t want to sink a bunch of money into getting a de rosa or glaus – who MIGHT be a 1 win upgrade over someone we get for free.
I would rather put that money on a starter. next year we have carp, lohse, and waino. lohse has spent almost this whole year injured; carp has spent two and a half years injured. with the trades, our starting depth is getting very scanty past boggs and garcia.
somebody is going to get injured in 2010; you can be pretty sure. i think we need to bulk up our starting pitching.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 14, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+...
whatever number it takes to make sure you know I mean it!
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
somebody is going to get injured in 2010; you can be pretty sure. i think we need to bulk up our starting pitching.
There’s an important point here. Baseball is not a 5-starter game; 6th starters threw (on average) over 100 innings last year. With two rehabbing/injured pitchers this year (Lohse/Garcia) and an extremely injury prone one (Carp), plus Garcia/Boggs being somewhat unproven, you could guess our 6th and 7th starters might need to pitch even more than that.
In that case, there’s real value in having Boggs or Garcia as long-man/6th starter, as opposed to having Thompson (ugh) or whoever. Which means (ideally) adding another pitcher.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus there's no way you can sign Smoltz and count on him for more than 100 innings.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I agree
Well said. I would also add Craig to the mix, who has been consistent as hell in the minors over the past 3 years.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, what are you talking about?
Craig has had wOBA of .400, .386 and .400 in each of the last three years spanning three different levels (with the last one being Triple A). That spans over 1200 plate appearances, so it’s likely not a small sample size aberration.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
just messing with you
Wanted to see how mad you would get
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
that is not what i am saying you fucking jackass
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
no.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I have no idea what this guy is talking about
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/9/6/1018568/the-numbers-dont-lie-we-are-a-500#21122749
And I think I understand that kind of stuff pretty well.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly
You give yourself a little too much credit sometimes. Always creative and usually enjoyable/interesting, but also a little too much faith in models, many of which cannot be validated and/or are still emerging, and a bit dogmatic.
When I skimmed the painfully absurd BCB thread, I kept thinking of the saying “all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
I salute your enthusiasm for the next generation of baseball stats and models, I just think it can cause the forest to be missed for the trees sometimes. Plus, there’s a lot of s*&t out there that would flunk basic stats courses (even if it made it to BTB!).
I really think people are misunderstanding what I am trying to get accross
I’m not being snarky, I want your honest opinion of what you thought my general point was in that thread.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 5:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Both would have to offered arb at the same time. If Glaus is offered and accepts (and DeRosa declines) why would he then take a $5M+Incentives contract when he’s sure to get more than that in arbitration?
You’ve totally missed my point. I would not offer Glaus arbitration. I would offer DeRosa arbitration. This is what we were debating in the first place (?).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I got your point
You think DeRosa would decline arb. So, who plays 3B next year? Mather? Craig? Freese? Another FA? That’s what I’m wondering. If you don’t offer Glaus arbitration, you could lowball him and hope he likes St. Louis enough to stay, or you risk losing him and getting nothing in return.
That’s fine, but we thought we had a sick amount of depth at 3B to start this year, and look what happened. Now you’re letting two guys walk, so I’m wondering who is manning that position on opening day?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
what's wrong with relying on freese/craig to man third?
neither of them are more likely to be injured on April 1st than glaus or derosa. i’m not too sanguine on mather’s return right now, so I won’t look to him. but expecting the top three 3b candidates to ALL get injured next year seems like an event unlikely to repeat; our 3rd and 4th string options at other positions aren’t great either.
glaus strikes me as a huge injury risk. derosa seems like someone who – as he ages – could quickly lose value as 3b. his UZR/150 at 3b this year is at 5 - maybe that’s a sample size issue and his true talent is closer to average defense; but maybe he really is losing range, which at his age is not unlikely. If he’s really a -5 defender at third, then he has to hit pretty well to make himself above average – something a mending tendon sheath could really hamper.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I'm all for going with the younguns...
if we can’t get Glaus for $3-4M base salary plus incentives or Derosa for no more than 2 years at $7M per. We can spend our money better elsewhere.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
You think DeRosa would decline arb. So, who plays 3B next year? Mather? Craig? Freese? Another FA? That’s what I’m wondering. If you don’t offer Glaus arbitration, you could lowball him and hope he likes St. Louis enough to stay, or you risk losing him and getting nothing in return.
I think there is a chance DeRosa accepts arb. If he does, fine, I play out the season with him. No harm no foul. If he doesn’t, I take the picks. I can’t see him being much more than a 2-3 WAR player at 3B, and I guess if he says no to arb he’s wanting a 2 year deal or ~$10m salary, which isn’t especially a bargain when we have likely above-replacement-level options as backups (Freese & Craig).
If not, I lowball Glaus to something like a $5m deal with incentives that bring it up to ~$10m based on plate appearances. If he wants to walk and go somewhere else, fine, I don’t think a larger contract than that is good value.
I’d probably pick up Khalil Greene (if possible) on a minor league contract, and see if he can work his problems out, regardless.
Then I let Freese, Craig, Lugo and the Greenes fight it out in ST and at the start of the year. I’ve got 1-2 picks from DeRosa, most likely a pick from Pineiro, and I’ve signed Holliday to a fair extension in LF (or let him walk if he wants too much and picked up Mike Cameron to do that job). I’ve got enough depth (5-6 players who can potentially play 3B to a 1-2 WAR level) to expect that at least somebody will come through and produce. We DID have a similar situation this year, but we had EXCEPTIONAL injury issues (Glaus, Freese, K Greene, Mather all with issues in the first couple of months) and less assurance in the MIF, so I wouldn’t expect the same situation to reoccur. Also, I feel we have even more depth this year, and I think we can more or less guarantee that (at least) Lugo is probably somewhat better than replacement-level at 3B.
With the spare cash (if DeRo isn’t back), I’d look to re-employ Smoltz if he’s healthy and happy to sign for another $5m or so, and someone (probably Calero or maybe Springer or something) to strengthen the right-hand side of the bullpen. If Smoltz isn’t wanting back, I’d hoover up whichever of the likely 1-2yr FA signees seems to offer the best risk-reward ratio, probably looking at guys like Penny, Duchscherer and (if the market for him is weak) Pineiro first of all.
If DeRo is back and cash is tight, I suppose I’ll take the cheapest SP upgrade I can find, which might preclude some of the better FA guys. Hopefully, Smoltz wants back and can be had cheap.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't
offer glaus arb. 10 mil is way over market value for an injured, possibly unable to field guy with 1 posish. i mean if he can’t field third, then that’s a huuuge chunk of change for a bench bat. at least with derosa, if he accepted, you’d have a reasonably priced utility guy. And he might accept since his value could be depressed due to injury.
Yeah, that's another advantage of DeRo
he’s probably still a 2 WAR guy in LF – if Holliday’s holding out for a Yankees-size contract and DeRo says yes to arb, we can always slot him into LF, go with internal options at 3B and max out on getting a top SP and a good relief arm with the rest of the money. A 1yr contract on a Sheets-type arm will (if it comes off) replace the wins we lose from Holliday and beef up our rotational depth considerably.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:43 AM EDT up reply actions
It Wasn't the NLDS
Take it from me! Having a three-game meltdown in the NLDS can ruin a great season. It’s better for a team to get swept in a 3-game series in mid-September.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Sep 14, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Mo says arb for Ludwick
good idea, bad idea?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Arb for Lud
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 14, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Definitely...
I’m a Luddy believer, but he’s too iffy to offer a multi-year deal to.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
It depends
Arb for Ludwick or not arb for Ludwick. Yes, obviously.
Arb for Ludwick or cheap three year deal to buy out the rest of his arb years? Say 3Y$18M? I say get the contract done versus risk the arbitration process and pay him more than that over the next three years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
P-D discussing the latter
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Link fail
Couldn’t find anything in that link, just “The Brendan Ryan Story”. :-) Good read though!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
ugh, my cut-paste sucks.
I do wish P-D would put the story title in the link like a normal website.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Yah...this is the interesting quote to me
With about $28.5 million committed to Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Lohse next season, Mozeliak concedes little room exists for significant growth barring a significant jump in payroll.
Obviously that’s true, and I think by saying it he’s also saying “Don’t expect significant growth.”
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Mo is tired from all the trading
he needs a nap.
HI MO.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that's setting up the SEE THE OWNERSHIP CARES when they do bump payroll
I refuse to believe the Cardinals traded for Holliday without some sort of ownership promise that he’d have extra cushion to work with.
Not afraid to nitpick
Ludwick's first year of arby...
was this year. Hence the $3.7M he’s making this season.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
he has next year and the year after for arb. Now, he could cost around $15-$20M in arb just for those two years. If you offer him an extra year and guarantee him $18M I think he’d be foolish to turn that down considering his age and his injury history. I think that makes more sense for the Cardinals than to gamble with arbitration hearings the next two years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I was just clarifying the...
buy out three years of arby part. I think you wait to offer the three year deal till you have an idea what he’s going to get in arby…in other words the team’s figure vs. his figure. He’s probably fine on a three year deal, but I’m just not sure he’s the hitter we thought he was after last season. I’m starting to think he’s an above average RFer rather than an elite hitter. Three years at $18M seems reasonable to me…though I’m not sure he’d accept it. I see him getting $5 or $6M this year in arby and $8 to $10M the next and significantly more than that his first year of Free Agency. He’s older than your average arb eligible player, but he’ll still be in his prime when he hits Free Agency. His injuries have been of the fluke variety…I’m not sure that they are part of his negotiating process.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
While his injuries have been flukey
he has had them, and it’s clear they affected his psyche. He knows that he’s not invincible any more and was nearly headed to Japan 3 years ago, he’s said so himself. He’s happy to be here and happy to be productive and I think he’d take a 3Y$18M or a 2Y$14M deal just to have some piece of mind that he will be getting paid over that time.
It’s better for the Cardinals because they can get some assurance as to what the payroll will be in the future, and that’s worth a lot when you’re looking at signing other players to long term deals, imo.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You may be right...
but it’s too obvious to me that he’s leaving A LOT of money on the table on the 3 year deal. I think 2/$14M is reasonable for both sides, but don’t know that I see the point…that’s probably not more than $2M +/- from what he gets in arby anyway…unless he completely tanks or repeats 2008 next season.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I agree with you here
I would like to see Ludwick, Colby and preferably Pujols wrapped up for guaranteed money this winter. $3yr 18m for Ludwick is a bargain and basically takes us through what should be his peak years into his decline phase. Then we let him walk and accept the draft-picky goodness.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
the 3 year deal
makes him easier to trade, which is what we’ll likely have to do in order to resign Holliday. Leaving him unsigned leaves a lot to risk in trading for but by signing him to that contract, teams know what to expect.
So he's signing for...
3/$18M and not getting a NTC? Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see it happening. 3/$24…maybe.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
OT: TLR shoulder-bumping with Thurston
anyone else disturbed?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I have to say I'm glad I didn't see that. The game was bad enough.
Maybe TLR was feeling pre-game giddy because Carp was on tha mound and Thursty seems like an infectuously nice guy?
/Reaching here.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
az saw it too
It happened. I wasn’t on some bad trip until the 2nd inning.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m having a difficult time picturing this in my head.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
let me illustrate in a textual manner
TLR was pre-game pacing, as he does. He stopped in front of Thurston like he didn’t notice him there. Thurston says something to him.
Then they simultaneously turn and bump their shoulders together, like going for an elbow bump except with the shoulders.
Like they’ve done it before.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Like they’ve done it before.
That’s disturbing.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
see.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
the bear should be. the bear should be.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
he needs to grow a pair & take care of biznass
it’s time to stop the talk & start walking the walk
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Sep 14, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
the bear disappoints me moar and moar everyday
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Selective small sample size warning!
Jason Motte since August 15, 10 IP, 11 Ks, 2 BBs, 1 HR.
Not afraid to nitpick
Goggles or no goggles?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
GOB's
joker apologizes for any manner in which he may have unwillingly offended you by pointing out Motte’s recent solidness-ness. Please do not punish the rest of us for this one comment.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
nah
it’s only tempting the GOBs when it projects future solidness or takes for granted present solidness.
like so:
from my experience,
this thread isn’t really representative. usually some tangents, bust mostly baseball discussion
but, shit, it’s an off day and the cardinals are playing the best baseball of anyone in the game and cruising to a division championship, an mvp, a silver slugger or two, comeback player of the year and maybe a cy young
what is there to talk about?
by prophetjohn on Sep 11, 2009 12:22 AM CDT
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
But tht thread was awesome. We shouldn’t be punished for anything said in that thread.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
now -that- is tempting the GOBs.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Well sorry. I don’t mean to tempt anyone. What do I do to untempt them?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I have no idea.
that’s why they’re bastards.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
That seems like it could be tempting the GOBs. You called them names.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
no, that is acknowledging they exist
and their pain is real
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
so dishearteningly real
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Sep 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Traditional Wain dance
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 14, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Tell them you have a boyfriend
and just want to be friends
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I forget, is that when they start leaving lots of voice messages?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel like that would temp them too. I mean they’re the GOBs, shouldn’t I consider them better than any current boyfriend I have.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
and there's Colby, too.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 14, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Or that it doesn’t matter who my current boyfriend is because the GOBs should be considered better.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 14, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
stop fearing the GOB's
they are bastard coated bastards with bastard filling. we should respect them, but not fear them. if we fear them, we are as good as dead. they know they are full of evil & bastardness, they relish it & live to punish those who fear them. once you recognize who & what they are, you can freely call them out on their evil bastardness.
i suggest you all recognize they are evil bastards ASAP so we can get back to our winning ways.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
i'd like the GOBs a lot more if they were bacon coated
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
follow the pegacorns
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that explains why they are bastards
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Call me...
overly cautious.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 14, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
On Franklin
We have smoltz…he will close in the playoffs…i am upwards of 85% sure of that
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
what a crazy season
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
Another relief prospect from the right side
I quickly scanned the comments, but don’t forget Luis Perdomo, who the Cards left vulnerable a Rule V drafting. Now, he is pitching for the Pads. Sure, his FIP is not good at all, but it’s a mouse’s hair better than Motte’s and I’d be willing to bet that TLR, who generally does a good job of putting relievers in positions to succeed (even if it frustratingly elongates games’ durations and means he uses 7 pitchers in a game), could get a bit better performance out of him.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The Cardinals rotation has placed a much smaller burden on the pen than the Padres
But we kept Matt Scherer!
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
in all honesty
I think the only one we’ll REALLY feel that we should’ve kept (going forwards) will probably be Chris Perez.
Although I do think Todd (and possibly Gregerson) may end up being better versions of KMac, I don’t think either will be real difference-makers; maybe decent 7th inning guys with a 3.5-4ish FIP. Perez is the only one we’ve traded who might turn into a star.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
You do realize
that Jess Todd will destroy us all, don’t you?
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
right now, it just looks like he's going to destroy Cleveland.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
that works too
no one really likes the Cleve, no?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
(awkward)
Sssh Dude, Keep your voice down. She is right below you
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, didn't see you there
Cleveland…um….it’s okay.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
But I’m not from Cleveland… and I don’t go to school there.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
But you do go school that begins with a C
Close enough for me
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm hoping if Jess Todd destroys Cleveland
Fritz will make a new blog post.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
no one really likes the Cleve, no?
It’s the perfect place if you’re a douchebag.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:44 AM EDT up reply actions
just a thought but could franklin be tipping his pitches
seems like that is always the answer with the cadinals
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
Ok, Troy, what did your therapist say? First, deep breaths. Second, remember that
the umpire is just calling balls and strikes, he is not judging you as a person.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 14, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
looks like the F-bomb in a christmas story
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 14, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
i quit
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 14, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about anyone else
but I want Glaus back next season if only for the F-bombs. Man, I love me some quality F-bombs.
I’m not saying that either one of them ( Troy Glaus and his F-bombs) have been on too much of a high, but that umpire was bringing them back to where they were supposed to be.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Sep 14, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Carp
is probably his only rival on the team for the F-bomb crown.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Carp definitely has him
His F-bombs are more timely. The pitch or play hasn’t even finished and he’s already at ‘U’.
Not afraid to nitpick
hell yeah
too much fluff and Of the Roses.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i think i know why carp sucked yesterday!
he must be hurt…
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions
so, shall we all have stlcardinalsfang drawn and quartered, or is that too quick?
i know he’s your son and all gdm, but he was always a disappointment to you anyway. you don’t have to participate if you’re squeamish.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 14, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
you're on a roll!
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
ha!
you’ll never find me!
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
but so not true! i would have been dead by now.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
you are in the subbasement
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
what the hell does that mean?
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
gdm, has a trapdoor, that leads to a sub-basement level
j/k
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
that's just creepy
i need to call my lawyer if that’s the case.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, you might want to get out of there
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
f'in gdm
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
gdm's basement?
you mean gdm’s mother’s basement, right?
by DanUpBaby on Sep 14, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
yes, this isn't my basement
everyone knows us bloggers don’t have our own basements. duh
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
I must be doing it wrong
I am in the attic
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yes, yes it does
wait…what?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
while this might be true
you don’t know exactly where i am.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
only one morning class m/w/f
we’ve been over this.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
apparently they don’t actually do any work at clemson
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i'll believe you on that one
just be sure to get all the important notes typed!
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
16,000+
that’d be a long search process.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
how so?
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 14, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Get a room you two
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 14, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
stop that on the lawn
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
physics joke nonsequitor
Heisenberg gets pulled over by a police officer for speeding.
The officer asks “Do you know how fast you were going?”
Heisenberg replies “No, but I know exactly where I am.”
by brackenthebox on Sep 14, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I was told there would be no physics
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
this sub-thread is dripping in win.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Delicious...
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Sep 14, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Looks like the Inglorious Basterds got ahold of that pie
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 14, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
no, i'll take care of him. it's partly my fault anyway
mine & his whore of a mother
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Nah Carp saw Waino give up 6 in one inning back in PIT, and didn't want him to feel bad
See Adam, we can all have off days!
Testicle-exploding shit storm, circa 7/12/08 - We will never forget!
Welly quote:
Wellemeyer has struggled this year but said he was encouraged following a bullpen session on Friday night. “I feel like I’m actually behind the ball for the first time,” Wellemeyer said. “It actually has something on it.”
So he is actually “behind the ball now”
Hope he’s right we can use a win tonight. But I have to wonder how long it will take before we see the signal for the HAWK!
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
GAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
One of the most infuriating things about Welley this season has been his repeated “Oh yeah, last start was bad, but I’ve got it all figured out now blah-dee-blah” happy bullcrap. It’s like a deadbeat telling you he’s going to get a job, or an addict saying they can quit any time they want.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yeah I was getting Deja Vu reading this quote as well
I think this is the guy’s last chance….time for the excuses and little self prep talks from Todd are over.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Deja vu all over again
From tonight’s AP recap: “Disregarding the numbers, Wellemeyer said this is the best he’s felt all season.”
by BTown Birds fan on Sep 15, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Disregarding the numbers, he's been fucking awesome this year.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
wasn't welly the guy who would keep telling us how good he felt about the 8-run
4-inning outings he was having?
umm, yeah. okay, todd. have fun pitching for the nats next year.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
They could have a rotation entirely composed of great fastballs of yesteryear,
between Cabrera, Olsen, Welley, Prior, Bedard, etc.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
adam eaton and kip wells FTW!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Prior has no arms left.
Bedard’s still pretty good.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm..
with all this talk about Boggs and Garcia taking one or two rotation spots next year aren’t we forgetting someone?
Blake probably belongs ahead of either one of them on the rotation depth chart IMO. I like him in the set-up role through the playoffs, but come spring training I want him “competing” for a spot in the rotation. Could he be Waiwright vs. 2.0?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
No.
He has a below average FIP in the bullpen with a K/BB of 1.44. He’d be lucky to be Kyle Lohse 2.0.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
He's a Kyle McClellan redux
and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get hit harder next season.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
this.
he’s definitely lost some speed this year.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
sadface.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
probably just throwing moar sinkerz
/ducks
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
if you duck, don't they hit you?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that sounds like a good overflow thread link
not you, gdm.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Two things
First, his peaks aren’t as high. He’s peaking at 92-93 rather than 94-95.
Second, his range isn’t as big. It looks like he’s dropped a pitch, either a slider or a change-up.
P.S. Cool chart.
P.P.S. I’m not a fan of his mechanics. He’s got a timing problem, and I wonder if some of the velocity drop is due to looming shoulder problems.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
i was running his game charts from last year, since I remembered him
crapping out down the stretch. it looks like he started struggling in his last 11 or so games — before the major dip in speed towards the end of 08.
my concern is that his 09 looks a lot like the last 5-6 games of 08. I’m worried that something went wrong in his arm in those last few games that took that ~2mph off his pitch.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
It's a sinker.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4845&position=P
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
can't be. MOAR SINKURZ = success.
you can’t throw a sinker and become a worse pitcher.
that’s unpossible according to commandment #2 of the Dave Duncan mantra.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
for 6, though, his peak has clearly dropped from 95 to
93 or so. the peaks aren’t as high as they were, which is something aside from the average FB speed.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I could buy they sinker argument
But why hasn’t he EVER popped a 94 or 95?
Maybe he backed off a few MPH for added control, but maybe something else is going on.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
Except, y'know, this is factually wrong.
Tonight:
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
doesn't it have a very hard time distinguishing 2-seamers and 4-seamers, though?
I thought that was considered to be a virtually meaningless division on pitchFx and GD…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Most pitches blend between the two
Especially for players like McClellan, who don’t really have a defined sinker/4seamer.
Also, anything with a PFX of 5+ and PFZ (BRK) of less than 10 is most likely a 4 seamer. 6, 12 is a 4 seamer 99.999% of the time.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions
So he popped one 94 last night, and the first all year
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
And 9/8/09 he topped out at 94.2
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
McClellan's averaged 90.8 MPH on his fastball this year
And has topped off at 94 twice, and over 93, 17 times.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
hmmm..
hadn’t taken the time to dig into his numbers. Looking more at results.
I got some diggin to do.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
so, Wednesday, the Redbirds meet the Sacramento River Cats...
who clinched a shot at the PCL Championship with the help of a 2-run triple by Brett Wallace. Isn’t that sweet.
- 8-2 Sacramento
2B: Carson 2 (2, Seddon, Seddon), Petit, G (1, Seddon).
HR: Carter (1, 1st inning off Seddon, 1 on, 2 out), Wallace (1, 5th inning off Seddon, 0 on, 2 out).
TB: Carson 5; Wallace 4; Everidge 2; Carter 4; Munson; Cardenas; Petit, G 2.
RBI: Everidge 3 (3), Carter 2 (2), Denorfia (1), Carson (1), Wallace (1).
2-out RBI: Everidge 3; Carter 2; Carson; Wallace. - 5-2 Tacoma
Wallace 0-4. Looks like an IBB.
E: Wallace (1, throw). - 13-2 Sacramento
2B: Denorfia (1, Baldwin), Cardenas (1, Baldwin), Petit, G (2, Bray).
HR: Carter (3, 3rd inning off Baldwin, 0 on, 0 out), Carson (1, 7th inning off Silva, C, 1 on, 2 out), Wallace (2, 8th inning off Manuel, 2 on, 0 out).
TB: Denorfia 4; Cardenas 4; Wallace 5; Everidge; Carter 5; Carson 4; Buck, T; Petit, G 3.
RBI: Everidge (4), Denorfia 2 (3), Cardenas 3 (3), Wallace 4 (5), Carter (4), Carson 2 (3).
2-out RBI: Everidge; Denorfia 2; Cardenas; Wallace; Carson 2.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Denorfia 2.
GIDP: Wallace. - 13-8 Sacramento
2B: Denorfia (2, Hernandez, G), Carson (3, Hernandez, G), Cardenas (2, Thomas, J), Everidge (1, Thomas, J), Cunningham (2, Koplove).
3B: Wallace (1, Hernandez, G).
HR: Carter (4, 1st inning off Hernandez, G, 1 on, 0 out).
TB: Denorfia 2; Cardenas 3; Wallace 4; Everidge 3; Carter 4; Carson 3; Cunningham 2; Petit, G.
RBI: Wallace 2 (7), Everidge 3 (7), Carter 2 (6), Recker 2 (2), Cunningham 2 (2).
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
thanks for that update.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 14, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
would you like some pie?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i think Mr. Hat would.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i love that so much tom
you wouldn’t mind if i steal that would you?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
probably no more than whoever I stole that image from on google images.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I am going to see the Redbirds in Sacramento this Friday
Looking forward to it— here’s hoping the Redbirds complete the sweep. (it’s a 5 game series, right?)
Don't ping my cheese with your bandwidth.
by RosevilleRedbird on Sep 14, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Awkward Moment
Using Laptop in public. Dude behind me keeps playing the theme song of Footloose over and over again.
turn off music sharing in iTunes
then he won’t be able to get at your playlists.
by DanUpBaby on Sep 14, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
lineup per Yahoo
Cards:
S. Schumaker 2b
J. Lugo ss
A. Pujols 1b
M. Holliday lf
C. Rasmus cf
R. Ludwick rf
M. DeRosa 3b
J. LaRue c
T. Wellemeyer p
Fish:
C. Coghlan lf
N. Johnson 1b
H. Ramirez ss
J. Cantu 3b
D. Uggla 2b
J. Baker c
C. Ross rf
C. Maybin cf
R. Nolasco p
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps. | Cards on Cards
how much would it take to trade for nolasco?
he’s got the biggest ERA/FIP split of anybody in the majors, so he has a good chance to be a bargain.
I know we have about no real trade chips left, but I’m just thinking here
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
fire up the van
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
chitown hasn't been around a lot lately
maybe he & Fredbird are already circling the teams hotel
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
hah!
I haven’t had the games lately, and I am going into pay less attention to the games mode, which I did during he last month or so in ’06
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
that's there is a good man
willing to make the sacrifices
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yknow
just in case
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 14, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
He's about to get pretty good money in arb,
so the Marlins would be willing to trade him. They’ll probably want Descalso tho.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
well to be fair to Tony
Welley is pitching, so Tony probably isn’t counting on very many GBs
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
kind of interesting
Tony playing a hunch? Does he expect Cody to be hitting the ball hard tonight for some reason?
guys i dont even care
we are going to bounce back and play like a tam that has albert pujols, matt holliday and ryan ludwick in the middle of the order and win the series without or without help from wellemeyer
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
whoa
Cards:
S. Schumaker 2b
J. Lugo ss
A. Pujols 1b
M. Holliday lf
C. Rasmus cf
R. Ludwick rf
M. DeRosa 3b
J. LaRue c
T. Wellemeyer p
whoa
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
And also hit tasty 3-run bombs
which is nice.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 15, 2009 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions
is Yadi hurt?
I noticed that he got pulled from the game yesterday early, but I wasn’t paying a ton of attention to the game for obvious reasons so I never heard if there was a reason for it.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps. | Cards on Cards
scheduled
Welley going. There is no such thing as a personal catcher.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh yeah
I keep trying to forget who is starting so I won’t dread watching the game tape when I get home from work.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps. | Cards on Cards
Four legs good, two legs better.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
nice shot at The Cat, Mo
good work
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
fist!
"There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." ~Al Gallagher, 1971
go cards.
by thecoolalonzo on Sep 14, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
damn it!
Sep 11, 2009 5:00 AM CDT
DanUp: Matt Holliday is hobbled by a near-injury that even the Cardinals will have trouble misdiagnosing, although upon hearing the news Troy Glaus immediately underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.
Sep. 14 – 7:25 pm et
Troy Glaus is day-to-day with a sore oblique.
Glaus suffered the injury on his pinch-hit appearance Saturday. It couldn’t have come at a worse time because the free agent to be was likely to draw a start at third base on Monday. Playing time has been scarce for the former 47 home-run hitter.
Source: St Louis Post-Dispatch
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it was on a check swing.
not a bat-flip. or so they tell us.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
duck the thrown helmet
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Is "gesticulating violently in response to a called third strike" covered by insurance?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
only if it involves "the finger".
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 14, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
we're only concerned if it's Wainwright's finger.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah, he looked fine in that one shot...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Pre-Existing Condition
You liked baseball before you got insurance
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
it's the one you really need to have
if you don’t have it, that’s when you need it
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I can haz gamethread??
Don't ping my cheese with your bandwidth.
by RosevilleRedbird on Sep 14, 2009 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wellemeyer no-hitter, calling it
What would each VEB member do in the event of a Welley no-no?
I may shave my head
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
that would be so awesome!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Aw.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 14, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
i would commit seppeku
because that means they re-sign him to a bloated contract.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
If he throws a no-hitter
I might shave my balls legs
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
is it just my shit ass internet connection
or is mlb.tv not loading?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
god i can't wait until i move
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
no
i just have a 1mbps internet connection because my roommates are jobless bums who live off their parents and don’t spend a dime more than they have to
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
have you tried stealing your neighbors internet
My neighbors internet is super fast
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 14, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
and theirs is a little faster (like 2-3mbps which should be plenty) but it’s still not going past the blue “fla v stl” laoding screen
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
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