Franklin's making me want to have some franklins!
by chuckb on Sep 13, 2009 12:01 PM EDT
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PrintI think we all know that Franklin’s been overreaching all year long. A 1-something ERA just isn’t sustainable for someone of Franklin’s skill set. Nevertheless, his ability to throw strikes, and throw them to his spots, has been a primary factor in his success this season. As you’ll see below, however, his control has gotten shakier as the season’s gone along.
| ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | Strike% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.00 | 7.84 | 1.74 | 46.2 | 70.8 |
| May | 2.79 | 5.59 | 2.79 | 48.4 | 64.7 |
| June | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 37.9 | 69.1 |
| July | 2.31 | 7.71 | 2.31 | 46.9 | 73.7 |
| August | 0.00 | 3.27 | 4.91 | 42.9 | 62.7 |
| September | 16.20 | 10.80 | 13.50 | 46.2 | 55.8 |
So there’s a big difference in August and September from the previous 4 months. Despite giving up no earned runs in August, he walked 6 batters in 11 innings and struck out just 4. In just 3.1 innings in September, he’s already walked 5 batters. His ability to get ground balls hasn’t really changed all season long, so that’s not the issue. It’s all about his control. It stands to reason that if he’s walking more hitters over the last 2 months, he’s also missing more spots within the zone. He’s, therefore, getting hit harder. His slugging % against this month is .611 – higher than his OPS against in every other month except May.
It almost seems that Franklin might be tiring but he’s a former starter. So far this season, he’s tossed just 55 innings but he threw 80 innings in 2007 and 78.2 last year. Last year June and July were his worst 2 months – between innings 25.1 and 52. He was very good in August and September, from innings 52 – 78.2. In ’07, he was fantastic (though, like this year, very lucky) the first 4 months of the season before struggling in August and struggling mightily in September. Sound familiar? He was great the first 54.1 innings, not great the next 13.1, and horrible the last 12.1. Unlike this year, however, his problem in ’07 wasn’t walks. It was home runs allowed. He was hit hard but not b/c he had a hard time finding the strike zone (apparently).
In looking at his velocities on fangraphs, and then his pitch f/x numbers from brooksbaseball, there’s nothing in his fastball velocity to indicate he’s tiring. He’s been consistently above 91 mph since June and averaged 91.07 yesterday. There’s nothing really that stands out except that he’s throwing more splitters now than he did at any point in the season. Early in the season, he was basically a fastball, cutter, curve ball guy but nearly a quarter of the pitches he’s thrown in September have been splitters/changeups. Yesterday 7 of his 25 pitches were classified as changeups (splitters). That’s 28%. The other thing that stands out is that his splitter has been clocked around 84-85 mph all season long but yesterday it was clocked at an average of 86.23 mph. Maybe it’s an insignificant difference but maybe dialing it up an extra mph reduces its movement a little.
Why is he throwing more splitters? I don’t know. Maybe it’s b/c he’s getting behind w/ his other pitches and so he’s throwing it in lieu of a fastball in fastball counts. Maybe he’s feeling less confident in his other pitches right now. Maybe he got pounded yesterday b/c he hadn’t pitched in several days. Clearly, I don’t have the answer. Dave Duncan doesn’t either:
I’m not sure what the answer is but clearly this is something that has to get fixed in the next couple of weeks. If we can’t close out games in October, we’ll be in big trouble. I was expecting to see some 4+ out saves in the postseason as it was. The good news is that in ’06 we were less settled in the 9th than we are now and we ended up ok so at least there’s time to work things out. The problem is that even when Franklin’s throwing strikes consistently he doesn’t miss many bats. Our right-handed relief is my main source of concern going into the postseason and Franklin’s doing nothing to alleviate that right now.
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It feels like this is purely mental.
I think they sat Franklin one time too many up in Milwaukee. once you let the confidence get shaken… remove him from his pattern, and the goat-voice starts warbling… "My first thought was ‘why?’" … not good, man. not good.
I won’t discount years of listening to the sheer vitriol piled on Izzy. That’s got to be lurking in the back of his mind. Or the front, depending on how the bleachers population is treating him this year. He’s just got to get in that rhythm of a completely routine inning — it seems like his best mental moment came from throwing catch with his son.
Simplify, Franky. Simplify.
Ideal situation is to get him back into a pattern of closing, to the point where closing in playoff situations is totally normal and just another day on the job. Like the All-Star Game, when Albert totally took one for the team in terms of deflecting media attention from Franky and Yadi. It’s one of those physics paradoxes… the more we talk about it, the less normal it’ll be.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
He really has gone Izzy
Yesterday, his pitches and control were marginal until toward the end of the AB. Then he started really hitting his spots.
This feels mental to me.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
agreed
I’m pleased that he was able to shake off the rust, but I fear the fact that it was the ninth inning and he did blow the save will all serve to set him back again. On balance I’m more worried about the offense not being able to pad the lead.
I’m wondering now if Franky should’ve been eased into the 8th inning instead. Of course with TLR ejected, we’ll never know how that would’ve worked out.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I say 'totally' too much
fail.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I dunno
I just think the issue is that he’s an average pitcher. Average pitchers get shelled once in a while. I just don’t see how we can expect him to put up the sort of numbers he’s been doing this year, because he’s not that good. When you give up a lot of contact some of those will fall for hits, and you don’t have much margin for error (certainly less so than a strike-thrower); minor mistakes will get hit hard.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions
he is what we thought he is
My point is that he avoids the minor mistakes by staying centered mentally. I don’t pay much attention to pitchers’ quirks, besides Motte, but Franklin’s body language and his entire game-plan changes with his confidence level. He slows the game to a molasses drip when he’s not feeling good. You can probably time the difference from game to game. I know exactly when he’s going to get shelled — he starts pitching like he’s long relief and Izzy’s in the pen.
That’s a mental thing.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
luxury of the big lead
In some ways, one could look at the remainder of the season as an extended spring training. The team’s next meaningful game is in 24 days and there are 19 games to work out the kinks. The closer situation is unsettling to say the least.
On the plus side, both of Franklins last blown saves are after the offense mounts a comeback. Prior to the Lugo trade, the Cards were 3-38 when trailing after 7. Now they stand at 9-48 or 6-12 since the trade including the two blown saves when they gained a lead only to lose.
+1
I’ve been waiting for them to firm up their soft spots for weeks, now.
(…don’t say it.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 13, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to worry
Wainwright will just close out the games he doesn’t start in, and the ones he starts he’ll just throw a complete game.
Damn I’m a genius.
by cloistermaximus on Sep 13, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions
brilliant!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 13, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
franky to frizzy transition
has come after his extension, though the case seems good that he was reverting slowly before that. i think it is really simple, control and patterns. when you don’t overpower, you need to surprise. this is both pitch selection and location. he had a successful pattern and changed it. ok, but need to use the new pitch in the right situation and it needs to be properly executed. i’ll go with “simplify” as suggested by y2s. i’d try back to the future before getting too panicked, but maybe he can be like lucky betty and be aberrant for a whole year. if so, control must improve.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
in the interest of better agnosticism
…the GOBs don’t like it when you take things for granted. Not ONE person in the game thread announced Franklin’s taking the mound with any version of “suck”, not until he actually started sucking.
Instead — with varying degrees of seriousness — Colby, Lohse, foxyproxy, Kip Wells, Carpenter’s contract, the Cubs, the announcers, and the team were all declared to suck before anyone stopped to mention that oh, maybe Franklin sucks too.
I’m not sayin’. I’m just sayin’. Hehe.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i said don't blow it in the overflow
but you’re right, i should have said stop sucking. maybe yesterday was all my fault,,,,
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Interesting
The other thing that stands out is that his splitter has been clocked around 84-85 mph all season long but yesterday it was clocked at an average of 86.23 mph. Maybe it’s an insignificant difference but maybe dialing it up an extra mph reduces its movement a little.
It may also be that the smaller differential is fooling hitters less and not hurting their timing as much as it should.
"Before every AB I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
also, can I just say:
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 13, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
avenge
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 13, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I love BRy
but that mustache is straight out of a Chris Hansen special.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
it froze Chipper
it has good upside.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
my concern is that as the season has worn on
there’s been a suggestion that Ryan has started tipping his mustache. Frankly, I’m not sure it’s sustainable.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Carp says he doesn't pay attention to his own intimidation factor.
meanwhile he tries to kill the reporter with his eyes.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh here we go. Rene Knott and Boog.
he says the ball is going real slow to him, when it’s going well.
then he immediately sings praises to the pitching staff. “I can only play as well as they’re pitching.”
He has no idea how he is so awesome. “You try to just be.”
“I surprise yourself when I go out there when I go out there, starting, on a major league team, in St. Louis.”
“It’s strange to hear that [a lot’s expected of me] from veteran guys.”
he watched “Skip and I watched Milesy a lot”
“Albert’s more of a quiet leader. His presence does a lot by itself.” Boog says Albert doesn’t get enough props for his magic at first base.
Man, Boog deflects almost all his praise to other people.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
^You just try to be
= in a zen manner. Like… just be, man.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
zing
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 13, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Franklin sucks
he was probably just trying out some new pitches because we just about have it wrapped up, and he thought he would tinker with some new beard tricks. hopefully his control problems are not because he is getting fatigued. 55 innings isn’t a big total though, so it’s hard to say what is going on. definitely raises a huge question mark!
Jaime Garcia?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions
It's on Rotoworld
Just missing a start with Shoulder Tendinitis, but uhhh, Wellemeyer gets the start….
Smoltz, you sure you injured?
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
fuckin' wellemeyer?!
all our batboys are injured too?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 14, 2009 5:00 AM EDT up reply actions
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