Post off-day grist: Matt Holliday edition
by DanUpBaby on Sep 11, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintBrief entry today—time constraints have conspired with the slow September baseball news cycle to keep this one under 600 words, which I guess means I need to compose a sestina for the game thread to make it up.
Matt Holliday is hobbled by a near-injury that even the Cardinals will have trouble misdiagnosing, although upon hearing the news Troy Glaus immediately underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. The brief loss of momentum gives us a chance to remark appreciatively upon the fact that he is now basically having the exact same season he did last year—
| G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB-CS | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 139 | 539 | 173 | 38 | 2 | 25 | 88 | 28 | 2 | .321 | .409 | .538 |
| 136 | 507 | 160 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 96 | 14 | 6 | .316 | .395 | .533 |
You have to account for Coors' effect on stolen base attempts, of course. But it's ridiculous, in the non-Pujolsian sense, to think that at this point a month and a half ago he would have had to hit .379/.432/.702 to replicate his 2008 season—and here we are. Hot streaks like this seem so implausible until they happen, and then again right afterward; it's absurd, to me, that Rick Ankiel hit .358/.409/.765 for a solid month after his triumphant call-up. But in the moment I probably yawned once or twice.
You may ask yourself: when was the last time Matt Holliday did something like this? The impressive part, at this point, is the games played; in 23 games, like Ankiel's stint, it's possible to prop up your usual production level with, say, two rousing two-homer performances. But Holliday's had two separate super-hot streaks—the nine games following the trade where he nearly hit .600, his 1.263 OPS in September—and they've come in the middle of a stretch where he's playing well anyway; having taken away his best eighteen games like that, his Cardinals line is still .284/.343/.537, which Mozeliak and Co. would probably have been happy with anyway. 43 games is a long time to be better than you are.
That sort of sustained brilliance has launched a thousand poorly reasoned MVP campaigns, and it's stil rare enough that sometimes sportswriters need to invent it. Holliday's had great months before; in September 2007, the year every Rock(ie?) had a great second half, he hit .365/.447/.788, and you can pull that back into August to get 35 or 40 games that come out only marginally worse than his current performance. But the way he's split his unbelievable twenty games between his first impression and his stretch run has the subjective side of me completely convinced he's a .380 hitter with... well, with no defensive ability whatsoever. So maybe it evens out.
#
While St. Louis slept Memphis went up 2-0 on what was apparently an incredible rally. The Redbirds loaded the bases with nobody out, down three runs, at which point Jarrett Hoffpauir grounded out, forcing former so-young-he-must-be-talented prospect Donovan Solano out at home, and David Freese popped out. Then it was the AAA+ bats to the rescue: Mark Hamilton and Allen Craig tied the game with back-to-back singles. Then Brandon Yarbrough, hits-a-little backup catcher to the stars—he's played behind Daric Barton, Bryan Anderson, and now Matt Pagnozzi—hit a booming double to the opposite field to put the Redbirds up for good.
I'm guilty of it probably more than most people—I am, for the most part, following the Memphis season because I know that when it's over the Royce Ring/Matt Pagnozzi floodgates will open for the last two weeks of September. But it's great to see them doing well, especially when the charge is led by future useful types like Jaime Garcia, Tyler Greene, and Allen Craig.
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"no defensive ability whatsoever"
so that makes him how much better in LF than Duncan?….
On a more serious note, I think one possible explanation for Holliday’s resurgence in the NL has less to do with the new league and more to do with the fact that he’s batting behind the guy with the highest OBP in baseball. I would be interested to know what part of Legoman’s success w/ the Cards is due to batting behind the guy w/ the highest OBP in baseball. In other words, is he just a better hitter w/ guys on base and is he hitting with men on base at a substantially higher rate than he was in Oakland? (And, if the latter is true, does that mean he’s seeing a different pitch selection as a result?)
P.S. Sestina FTW!
If so
then I want to keep him all the more because sooner or later, Rasmus in the two hole will near the .350-.375 OBP range, in front of Pujols’ .400-.450 OBP range. Having a Holliday who hits better with men in scoring position / men on base would really get this offense back to MV3 level…
I hope you're right,
but based on what we’ve seen this year, what makes you think Raz will be a .350-.375 OBP guy?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 11, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
His awesomeness.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
you don't actually mean this, do you?
As if only when it’s “obvious” will a prospect’s minor league numbers not translate to the major leagues?
We can all hope that Raz’ OBP will translate (and his minor league numbers are what give us a reason to hope), but it won’t be shocking if it doesn’t in his individual case.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
how did you construe the "as if only" ?
If I say I see no obvious reason to doubt he projects, that implies nothing about possible non-obvious reasons. I offered no guarantee, either. So yes, I meant what I said. To take issue with my comment you would need to maintain that there IS an obvious reason to doubt Rasmus can develop into a .350-.375 range OBP player.
Rasmus
First off, not every single rookie figures it out his first year like Albert did. In March/April’s 19 games (15 starts), Rasmus started out with a .357 OBP even though he was hitting .254. Pitchers started figuring out that he would take a walk and began throwing him more strikes.
In May, his numbers plunged.
By June, Rasmus was figuring out pitchers in the majors a little bit. They still weren’t going to walk him, so he hit .333 off of them with a .536 SLG.
Now, the past 8 games (6 starts) in September he has a .345 OBP still as a rookie.
I think that with a little more time adjusting to the major league level, he should be able to put up a decent .275/.350/.450 line and be an .800 OPS guy within the next couple of years.
Could I be out of my mind and he ends up with a career .685 OPS, sure. But I think you’d be out of your mind saying that will happen.
Probably worth noting
Holliday had a really good teammate in Colorado too. Todd Helton’s career OBP (.427) is nearly identical to Albert’s at .428. Now, are they equally good hitters? No. But at least as an average-based hitter, Helton is comparable.
Oh, and for what its worth… any discussion about Holliday as an MVP candidate are misguided. He has played well, but Albert is having perhaps the best season statistically ever. That aside, there are probably about ten guys who would be ahead of Holliday, including possibly even a pitcher or two.
He’s been tremendous, but he aint THAT good.
"best season statistically ever"
If you ignore BB, anyway … which I guess I’m willing to do, although I’m not sure. Never mind me. I forgot what I was talking about.
by StanTheManFan on Sep 11, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
but Albert is having perhaps the best season statistically ever.
Nope.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
That was silly because they walked him
He slugged .863 in 2001. That’s just impossible.
Not afraid to nitpick
They Walked Him...
…because his impossibly-huge steroid infected head was so large and scary – he was his own bobblehead!
:=8.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Oh if that's what he meant, fair enough
Pujols isn’t even going to have the best season in the last decade, let alone of all time. I doubt he’ll hit 10 WAR. Some of Bonds’ best were pushing 15….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Was that pre or post Steriods?
"The almighty tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he’s pretty sure you’re screwed" Albert to opposing pitchers.
Post, obviously.
And, no they weren’t. His highest on FanGraphs (and his post steroid years were undeniably his best ones) is 13.3 in 2002, which is the first year listed. I don’t think his 2001 season was 1.7 WAR better. It’s arguable if it was better at all since his wOBA is higher in 2002 than 2001.
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
by Cardinals645 on Sep 11, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
semantics
13.3 is “pushing 15” in my book. He also took 50 more PAs in 2001, and it’s not impossible his fielding was better, in which case he could’ve hit 15 wins.
In any case, it’s way higher than anything Pujols has ever achieved (and probably ever will).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions
re: Helton
Exactly. And Holliday struggled in Oakland, where he was the guy and didn’t have a HOF hitter in the lineup with him.
This Cow...
…has actually written a sestina – and it was good too!
:=8)
My hovercraft is full of eels!
:=8O
you say ses-teen-a
i say ses-TYNE-a
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I say sextina, sestine, or sextain
At least according to Wikipedia (ATW?)
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
i demand a hometown discount
if his defense continues to stink. if our hot corner isn’t so hot, somebody’s got to back it up, and it can’t always be Boog. forget Rick Ankiel showing up lame-and-bland Colby — he was such an improvement over Holliday.
save us, Jose Oquendo. otherwise the opposing game plan will be so easy, a caveman could do it: hit it over third base.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Does the Coors Effect apply to defense?
Because I agree with DanUp, based on my observations, that Holliday’s defense is Duncanian in nature. Based on anecdotal and UZR assessments, I thought he would be good, or, at least fair, but he has not impressed with his glove as he patrols LF.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think it just goes to show
that the bar for LF defense is not very high. There are only 2-3 regular LFs who are not awful defensively.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
Not awful LFers...
Carl Crawford, Nyjer Morgan (back when he played LF), and, um, who else?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
which is why it is so fascinating
that skip can be -5 runs in LF in such limited playing time (75 innings) this year. I’ve been mentally adding half a win to his WAR just based on the silliness of that small sample…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
is that even possible?
I would think one would spew well before the point of intoxication.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I don't mind Holliday with the glove
he can catch a ball, and he’s very fast for such a big guy. So-so arm and kinda mediocre routes to the ball, but by being quick and coordinated he’s ahead of like 80%+ of the left-fielders out there.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel like the main thing is his arm. A pop anywhere in LF that isn't accessible to the CF will move men on base.
His speed and range have looked good to me.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
+1
I figure he’s a big improvement over what we had, in any respect, except Ank’s arm. If he hits like he is able to, I can live with the rest of it. He hits for power, he hits for average, He isn’t an idiot on the basepaths. Good enough for me, but as long as he doesn’t try to rape us on contract. Which is a major possibility with Boras(I hope that guy chokes on all the money he has screwed outta people).
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
...do we need a rape whistle??
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Piss on a whistle.
Gimme a taser.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Just don't piss on a taser.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Sep 11, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
i heard it was smarter to yell Fire than Rape
More people will come to check out a Fire than Rape
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Somebody actually told me this in college.
I think they tell that to all the freshman girls at orientation.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
"POOL TEMPERATURES FUCK YEAH"--tgreenfield, The September 10th-11th VEB Off-Topic Explosion
you haven't been on the internet for very long, have you...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
well, at the least, I'm hoping he can fix his routes to the ball
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
really?
Holliday’s defense is Duncanian in nature.
Has he been dropping pop-ups? I mean, I never thought Duncan was quite as bad as his reputation made him out to be, but still, it doesn’t seem to me (anecdotally) that Holliday has been Duncan-esque out there. What was the quote? Dunc looked like a puppy on roller skates in LF, or something like that….AFAIC as long as Holliday can be an average fielder he’s fine.
he's not even getting to them.
digging them back out also seems to take inordinately long, even with runners in scoring position.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That's what has surprised me
There have been several fly ball “hits” to left recently that, at least from the TV perspective, initially looked to be catchable. MH hasn’t really come close to any of them. One example was the lone hit in Carp’s Tuesday gem. No way to prove it, but I would bet a bunch of internet $’s that Rick gets to that ball. MH also seems to take forever, oft times, to dig a ball out of the corner or to pick it up as it runs along the base of the wall.
I still think he’s an improvement over Dunckiel, mind you, it’s just that all the improvement seems to be at the plate and I was expecting a little better from the fielding side.
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 11, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
No way to prove it, but I would bet a bunch of internet $’s that Rick gets to that ball.
I thought exactly the same thing watching that game.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
"POOL TEMPERATURES FUCK YEAH"--tgreenfield, The September 10th-11th VEB Off-Topic Explosion
You're right, I suppose.
At least Duncan got to the balls to, ya know, have them Richocet off of his glove. What LF most often just allows flyballs to drop in the outfield? El Caballo?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I don't think it's a Coors effect
All of the things I heard related to that have been that Coors portrays defensive performance negatively. That’s offered as a reason as to why Brad Hawpe had like a -46 UZR last year (even though it’s pretty much impossible to be that bad).
I don’ know if their is a Coors effect, but if there is, it’s almost certainly a negative one. Holliday’s looked bad to me too, but we have a lot of data that says he is almost certainly a + defender.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
re: Hawpe @ -46
this is another reason (again IMHO) to really take defensive statistics with huge amounts of salt.
Bullshit
You don’t think of defensive stats in a one season sample, then of course they will have huge variance.
You think of defense stats as = skill + random variation in performce + systematic error (IE, UZR has measurement error).
Over the course of one season, random variation and systematic error are very prevalent. However, over the course of 3-4 years, those things become very small, and what remains is mainly skill.
IMO, I think it is a mistake that FanGraphs reports stats like UZR/150 for a small sample size. They should either just show a projection, or simply show a career ranking, or else people will be prone to abuse the stat or discount it completely.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Why so rude?
People (including people who purport to be statistics-comfortable) consistently misuse UZR (and statistics that use UZR, like WAR), most especially in ascribing to it greater precision than it actually has. That’s not even to mention that stats like UZR are adjusted each year to an average value. Even taking a three year avg. could lead to skewed results merely because other players (through injury, changing leagues, promotions, switching positions) affected the target player’s numbers.
People have had entire heated threads devoted to arguing whether x 1.7 WAR player is worth X amount more than y 1.2 WAR player when the whole statistical basis for the distinction in performance is subsumed by the error bars.
The fact that someone takes defensive statistics with a huge grain of salt isn’t all that surprising or objectionable.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You will not win this argument with him
But you know that, you and I have both had it before. However, I see this quote as a sign of progress:
IMO, I think it is a mistake that FanGraphs reports stats like UZR/150 for a small sample size. They should either just show a projection, or simply show a career ranking, or else people will be prone to abuse the stat or discount it completely.
That’s really been my contention all along — since it’s reported for samples smaller than it could possibly be precise for, it encourages people to abuse it, and it gets abused pretty consistently on places like BtB and here, and most especially at FanGraphs.
The more you let people abuse it without speaking up, the more it becomes common practice, and the harder it is to change people’s habits of using it for things like determining a players WAR and defensive values for only a half season or full season of data down to a certain number of wins or runs.
Unless this is pointed out in the forum in which UZR is being used incorrectly, I think it does the Saber community a tremendous disservice.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
His reaction was the opposite to which I was trying to provoke
So either I did a poor job of explaining how to properly use defensive stats (IE, multi-year data and lots of regression) or he did a poor job of understanding what I was trying to say. I obviously think it was the later, and I take his response as a refusal to understand about how to properly apply defensive stats.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
WTF happened in yesterday's thread
I log off and there are 400 comments . . . and now 900 NEW comments. I’m hesitant to venture into it. I hope it wasn’t a war zone.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
So far
I’ve read 200 comments on “coke” vs. “soda” vs. “pop”.
/dives back in
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
that was only the second topic.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it's not like any of it was OT
the post was called “Stuff”.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Now I've waded through the girl advice as well
It reads like Olivia Munn just showed up to Comic-con and all the guys in the room zero in. . .
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Now Maddox Mission
This I can approve of. It is in fact the best page in the Universe.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Music, music
tv shows
do we talk about baseball anymore?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
and have this stuff is after 12:00am
when do you people sleep???
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
i don't think anyone talked about football, though.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
she's great
when she doesn’t talk. imo.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I have no idea what specifically you are saying
but it’s spot on.
It was like that scene in eurotrip…GIRRRLLLLLLL
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
and FWIW
short hair = like someone said in that thread girls dress for other girls.
I just finished reading The MANual (yes I’m reading girl’s dating books, also read “he’s just not that into you”) and the guy said that and he was spot on. It irritates the ever loving shit out of me when these girls do this, especially with hair. Occasionally you’re going to get the one guy saying “oh i like short hair” but generally speaking, most guys thinks it looks like ass (unless you have some sort of external attributional anchor to it).
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
I got one for ya.
“A Practical Handbook for the Boyfriend: For Every Guy Who Wants to Be One, For Every Girl Wants to Build One” by Felicity Huffman and Patricia Wolff. My fiance got this for me on a lark, or maybe it wasn’t. It is an absolutely hysterical read, imo. I think my one continuing thought through-out the book is “You can’t be serious?”.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
But Then..
…moost guys think Jessica Simpson is hot, where there cow thinks she looks like a coiffed white poodle covered in vanilla pudding and marshmallows…
:=8/
My hovercraft is full of eels!
:=8O
Perhaps I'm in a small minority,
but I hate blondes because of the air of fakeness and superficiality attached to dying your hair blonde, and I really like short haired girls, dark hair, and wavy hair (not necessarily all together). Like back when Winona Ryder was a big deal.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
point of order
do we call her Mrs. Frog or Mrs. Evil?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
excellllent.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Does she equal you out?
Should we call her" Mrs. Good"?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Glad to hear it.
You wouldn’t be nearly as entertaining if she chipped off your evilside.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
huh?
I thought you are a woman. Have I been wrong for this long?
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Sep 11, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
well . . . yes and no.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
That's cold.
Very funny, but cold.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
f'in GDM!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
That's what she said!
now I feel like i have sullied a main post, way to go!
f’in GDM!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yeah, definitely
short, thin and dark hair
mmmm
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
+1000
bob or wedge cut are best. As long as the hair that is there is more than a couple inches long (i.e. long hair cut above the shoulders, not a “man’s” short haircut.)
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 11, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
once dated a girl who had cancer, and went through chemo
not going to lie, the GI Jane fuzz curled up under my chin on the couch felt pretty cool.
now her fat ass and addiction to a tiny dog named Coco, that had to be addressed.
by Expatcardfan on Sep 12, 2009 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Remember what your geometry teacher told you about assumptions?
Sorry, but you can’t assume that all blondes dye their hair. At the age of 32, I’ve never dyed my hair — it would be sacrilege! — and it is quite blonde. And yet most people ass-u-me it is fake. Burns me up.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
by ChiTown CardFan on Sep 11, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I only assume it's dyed if it's that nasty white-blond color
I knew a girl at college (SMOKING HOT!) who was a dirty blonde all four years and I only just found out that she was actually a brunette the whole time. It was strange.
I love having a pixie cut.
I only do it every few years and then begin the long, painfully slow process of growing my hair out again.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
I feel better now.
After yesterday’s thread (which I never made all the way through) about long hair, I was feelin’ the lack of love for us short- and dark-haired girls.
Nice G4TV reference
On a personal note, I’ve always preferred Blair Butler for some reason. It must be her ability to appeal to dorks.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Sep 11, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Blair > Olivia
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
no no no no no
There’s something wrong with her face.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
let's just say
I’m not real interested in her face.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Olivia is putting up with us,
Blair is one of us
Morgan Webb is tall & pretty, but seems to be a legitimate geek. Kristen Holt is pretty much a spokesmodel. Layla Kayleigh is smoking hot and she is there to do just that. Sarah Lane (from Screen Savers, Tech TV) is a definite tech geek and is cute as all get out.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
oh that's right.
Morgan >>>>>> anyone.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Holt got married last year to a douchebag wannabe rocker
her last name is Adams now. don’t call her Holt, or she’ll be angry
Layla left for bigger & better things. not sure what since i haven’t seen or heard from her since she left. i always got the idea she wasn’t interested in one thing there, it was just a gig for her till she could get something bigger.
O is using G4 as a spring board for her “acting”. the second she gets a real offer she’s gone.
Az is right, there’s something off with Blair’s face. she seems like a nice lass, but i’ll pass.
Alison drives me nuts she’s the typical ohio girl. annoying in every way, not that pretty, not that attractive, but just enough to get noticed. i can’t stand her.
Webb is really the only legit chick there. which confuses me. they gave her a make over about a year & a half ago & she looks really hot now, but i don’t thing that’s the image she wants to put out.
they had former POTY Underwood from Oregon on there last month. and even though she’s nice to look at, she’s dumber than a box of rocks & her voice is like nails on a chalk board. i hope she’s not back
i totally skipped everything yesterday, so if this was all covered my condolences to rehashing it. i’m not going in there no because the damn thing has almost 1500 comments & it will probably eat my shitty dell’s.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
but on all three doubles, he went for the nuts.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
if anyone's reading the Boog article
here, the lede disappeared. there was one, for 6. a few hours later it was gone, and it’s still gone.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
we do have video of his DeNiro
check the “mix-tape” post.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
if yer lazy
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
all things boog is in the fanposts
……..and the fanshots. [hangs head]
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Fantastic.
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
by Cardinals645 on Sep 11, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all in good fun
But I love casual mentions of season-ending surgery, not only in the main post here, but in the game thread of Wednesday, which send me scrambling to espn.com for confirmation.
Is Pujols expected to miss time with his torn ulnar collateral ligament?
haHA.
Holliday makes not-top-ten. good on ya, Trippy McLegoman.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Either Holliday will get similar MVP attention to what Manny got, or he will be ignored
Either way it’s gonna be funny.
I’m going to the afternoon game tomorrow. I have been to a couple games this year but have yet to see Cardinals 2.0 in all their glory. Needless to say, instead of Carpenter/Vasquez I will be seeing the match up of Lohse/Hudson. Sometimes it feels like the only pitchers I get to watch are Braden Looper, Kyle Lohse, Mitch Boggs, and pre-good Joel Piñeiro. I know that’s not really the case but it feels like it sometimes.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
i'll be at tomorrow's game as well
last game i was at, albert hit out the “I.” oh, and Waino came one out away from his first CG. doesn’t get much better than that.
by EinFesteBusch on Sep 11, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
haha, thx
LCMS born and bred. St. Louis is our Holy Land.
and you?
by EinFesteBusch on Sep 11, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Right there with you, my brother!
Actually, I’m originally from across the river, in Madison County, IL (a tiny little town I’m sure you’ve never heard of). I went to high school in Edwardsville at Metro-East Lutheran HS, went to Concordia in River Forest for college…yeah, I’m about as LCMS as they get. :)
You're a much better Lutheran than me.
Concordia was in my top 3, but I went to Valpo. Ironically, my pastor told me it was the best thing I could’ve done. He was right, but still…ANATHEMA!
by EinFesteBusch on Sep 11, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't feel too bad matty,
The one game I’ve made it to this year was one of the games that Carpenter gave up 3 runs and lost cuz the offense was in Stagnationville. I have never seen a team that asleep and still standing up.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh
The other thing is that I know I’m using anecdotal evidence. I have been present for some offensive awesomeness where I forgot who the pitcher even was (Pujols Easter 2006, one of the very early Ankiel call-up days in 2007) and some really bad pitching performances (lots of Looper et al., Carp’s opening day 2007 of doom) and those stick out in my memory more than the “normal” games.
That said I hope Lohse does awesome. Ly.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Well all I ever seem to see is Wellemeyer
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn the bad luck.
Maybe you won’t have to worry about that after this year.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitchers
Last year, I saw Braden Looper twice (out of four games) and he was not good either time. It was quite frustrating.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
luckily I live in Madison, so Milwaukee is a short drive
which means I saw the first 2 games of the most recent series. That one hitter was pretty sick.
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
by tgreenfield on Sep 11, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm green with envy.
Even though I also got to see Wainwright and the ‘08 Wellemeyer, both starters struggled in the games I watched. They were not awful or anything, but were bogged down in grind-it-out starts where their stuff was not sharp. However, this year, I saw Wainwright’s good start against the Cubbies, Boggs’s great start against the Cubbies, Albert Pujols’s 1,000th RBI grand slam, and a great outing from Carp as well as WonderBrad in K.C.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Springfield
is now down 0-2 after both Trey Hearne and Lance Lynn reverted to some pre-professional versions of themselves….or something.
Does This Mean...
..that Shelbyville will win the championship???
:=8O
My hovercraft is full of eels!
:=8O
anybody going to the memphis game tonight?
i’ll be there… first redbirds game ever.
by RedbirdAvenger on Sep 11, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions
I hope that
you have a “FREE ALLEN CRAIG” sign.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
To Honor Mystery Science Theater 3000..
…I am going by the name Big McLargehuge for today…
;=8)
My hovercraft is full of eels!
:=8O
Aww, why not Hack Blowfist?
Or Smoke Manmuscle?
Or Bob Johnson?
Yeah, I might be a pretty big MST3K fan, why do you ask?
So.. the real question for you DanUp
Is Holliday a witch, have close clubhouse connections with a witch or is the photographer a witch with a special camera?
I'm going to anticipate Albert being walked if Babe Ruth is hitting behind him -Holliday
oh no!
The term “spark plug” and “Brendan Ryan” have emerged in the same online comment.
Nooooooooooooo anything but spark plug.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
ferret
goat = Franklin.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Not quite ...
Mongoose
. . . rather like a little cat in his fur and his tail, but quite like a weasel in his head and his habits. His eyes and the end of his restless nose were pink; he could scratch himself anywhere he pleased, with any leg, front or back, that he chose to use; he could fluff up his tail till it looked like a bottle-brush, and his war-cry, as he scuttled through the long grass, was: ``Rikk-tikk-tikki-tikki-tchk!’’
but his splits against the Diamondbacks aren't great
.174 / .240 / .304
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
mongooses eat cobras not rattlesnakes
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 11, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
actually they're omnivores.
it’s just easier to find prey or food other than rattlesnakes.
like sunflower seeds.
[actually, a viper bite would be fatal to a mongoose.
While vipers may also carry the neurotoxin in their venom, they have predominately hemotoxins which causes tissue and blood cells to decompose; which is an extremely painful death. A mongoose has no immunities to hemotoxins. link ]
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
In Okinawa I went to a mongouse Habu fight
It’s totally rigged though. The mongoose was wide awake. And the Habu is nocturnal. They pretty much just took the snake out of the bag and before it could completely wake up it was dead.
Do you know where to find
the Samurai that smells like Sunflower’s?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
let me check
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Besides...
wasn’t Willie McGee the Mongoose? (before my time)
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 11, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
10@10 is Booglicious, btw
Boog is so old-school. I love it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
didn't know his dad was an assistant AG
imagine TLR and Boog arguing about statutes of limitations before a game…
weird.
by EinFesteBusch on Sep 11, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
makes perfect sense that he's flourished
despite the yawning gulf in personality.
ballplayers and their father issues…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
he's a table-setter
although he is yet to master the more complex cutlery, like fish knives and those little things for picking olives.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
those are for OLIVES?
crap.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Butt plug?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
needs moar flange.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
How many of you drunks have done the vodka infused with skittles thing?
I’m in the process of filtering them now and, yes, I am quite aware of the questionable light it casts on my sexuality.
But I was curious, so BACK OFF.
V, b.
Hey, man, ain't nothing wrong with Skittles.
Those and Starburst are tied for my two favorite candies.
It was really just absolutely awful-tasting
Now I know you’re thinking, “Well that sucks, vodka ruined.” Fear not, we drank it anyway. But it was gross.
Never mix scotch and V-8
I learned that one the hard way.
"Before every at bat I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing wife, children, and entire family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
never mix scotch with anything
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
What about bad scotch?
There are some mixed drinks that call for scotch
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Never mix scotch
with anything, and never drink bad scotch.
Good single malts make life worth living.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 11, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i know... i know
But i like the kick of it in my coffee during winter time after a meal
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
never drink one of those boxes of wine
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
box wine is TERRIBLE
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
especially if you find it on the side of the street
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
is there a story attached to this?
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
i found a box of wine on Broadway before
And drank from it
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
that's just wrong.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
please tell me you at least got drunk off it
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
figures.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
oh come on now
why?
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
This brings back memories of a now notorious "slap the bag" incident
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
especially if you consume all of it
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
If you have, well, more man oriented junk, then yes, it is.
I’m not a wine fan, but a lot of females I’ve known have pulled the “box wine is good!” line. Just saying…
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
jug night (courtesy of Carlo Rossi) was the worst idea I've ever had (on a weekly basis)
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
everytime i see anyone with a C--- R--- name anymore
I automatically think of Cory Rasmussen
awaiting robotic re-education.
someone really needs to make a name generator widget for that
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
couldn't find one that would let you randomly generate by initials
however.. did find this fun site… generator heaven!
Proud to be a member of The Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever (9/10/09)
heres a generator
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 11, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Best. Generator. Ever.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
testing 1 2 3
I’ll make a fanshot if this works:
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
this should update on refreshes to a different random combination
let me know if anyone notices a problem
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
here's the fanshot in case anyone cares
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/9/11/1026187/heres-a-little-php-script-i-wrote
I’m looking to expand the list of names, so submit them if you’ve got em (in the fanshot)
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank god there are no images in sigs
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
has anyone seen Coy Ramu?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Never made Skittle Vodka before
Have made quite a few other flavor enhanced vodka’s though. My favorite’s that I make are Garlic Vodka for Bloody Mary’s and Lemon/Mint vodka.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Nashville has a vodka infusion bar (Past Perfect)
that has like 75 different types of infused vodka flavors.
I think the bar and it’s vodkas suck large smooth poles.. but some people swear by it.
i think they are also vegan.
awaiting robotic re-education.
its fail
/grammar self loathing
Proud to be a member of The Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever (9/10/09)
Not to discount what Holliday has done for us, but really..where is the MVP talk coming from?
Holliday has hinted strongly that he’ll take less money to come back to St. Louis. If I were Scott Boras, I would be furious that my top client going into the offseason is even considering such blasphemy. So what would I do? I would get some of my opinion-making pals in the press to start some MVP chatter. I wouldn’t lose anything since everyone and their mother knows that Albert has the MVP locked up this year. Nonetheless, how many more millions is Holliday worth (or how many more millions can Boras demand) after “serious people” have considered him worthy of the prize?
But then, I’m not Scott Boras. I’m sure the real Scott Boras would never do something so twisted.
Is it blasphemy to say he's the most valuable player this year?
yes.
Is it blasphemy to say he’s one of the top 10 most valuable players this year? (10 place ballots)
Not really.
this thread is like watching a train wreck.. but then it turns out that one of the trains was full of kangaroos… and now all the kangaroos are just jumping around, and the crowd has forgotten the trains and just staring at the kangaroos, but now it’s getting monotonous.. and everyone’s getting bored until someone new walks up and is like "Hey.. what’s with the kangaroos?" then everyone else wants to be the one to tell the story and where they were when it happened and what they think caused the wreck, and meanwhile all the passengers and train personnel have left…
Quote:
Well.. I was just coming home from work, and there was all this shouting.. seems the westbound train got on the wrong track and slammed straight into the eastbound from Pawtucket.. the conductor over there lost an arm.. wait.. where’d he go… long story short… kangaroos have taken over the preschool, and I’m selling t-shirts
-9/10/09
maybe just link to that comment in your sig. . .
rather than having the whole comment IN your sig — just a thought.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
nevar farget!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
if i could learn to link to a comment rather than just to an article in particular
i would gladly do so.
teach me o robot overlord
this thread is like watching a train wreck.. but then it turns out that one of the trains was full of kangaroos… and now all the kangaroos are just jumping around, and the crowd has forgotten the trains and just staring at the kangaroos, but now it’s getting monotonous.. and everyone’s getting bored until someone new walks up and is like "Hey.. what’s with the kangaroos?" then everyone else wants to be the one to tell the story and where they were when it happened and what they think caused the wreck, and meanwhile all the passengers and train personnel have left…
Quote:
Well.. I was just coming home from work, and there was all this shouting.. seems the westbound train got on the wrong track and slammed straight into the eastbound from Pawtucket.. the conductor over there lost an arm.. wait.. where’d he go… long story short… kangaroos have taken over the preschool, and I’m selling t-shirts
-9/10/09
You can go to a comment's address
by clicking on the time stamp of the comment.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
see.. this is what i meant last night about you coming after me...
(but much thanks this time)
awaiting robotic re-education.
spants is out to get everyone
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
my face ain't talkin'!
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
nope!
my keyboard is doin’ all the talkin’ here!
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
in a regular comment, it's easy. just click on the link thing in the toolbar and go to town
in a signature, you actually to do the html, which is:
{a href=“http://www.vivaelbirdos.com”}Viva El Birdos{/a}
replace the {}s with <> and it returns
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
oh duh
i’m dumb. never mind.
/learns to read comments correctly
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
here's your fish
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/9/10/1023659/stuff#21024329
the others seem to have taught you how already
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
testing
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
Proud Contributor to the Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever 9/10-9/11/09
nope...
try the link in “testing #2”
your sig refers back to this page currently
Proud to be a member of The Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever (9/10/09)
fixed me thinks
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
Proud Contributor to the Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever 9/10-9/11/09
He is the only left-handed bat hurler we have on the team though
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
My son got kicked out of a Little League game for flipping his bat.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Musial
I got called out for that too
On a walk-off hit. And I didn’t flip it. I tossed it away from the plate because I thought there was going to be a play at the plate.
i umpire for a church league in st. louis
and i can tell i would never, ever kick anyone out of a game for something such as a bat flip. the kids are usually fine, it’s the coaches that sometimes get a little too much into the game.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
This reminds me of a Tim Wilson song...
Church League Softball Fistfight
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Thats funny
I had the same thought. For those who have hever heard it. Check it out.
"The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert Pujols is better than you." -Jim Palmer
by tangledbrett on Sep 11, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
i umpired little league and Babe Ruth ball
1) I have kicked a few bats out of games, but due to legal action being taken in another league because a kid nailed another kid while using a bat that was not league approved, and called a concussion.
2) almost saw my fellow umpire kill a fan once. granted, the slur that the fan threw out was one that meant that guy had to have his ass kicked. part of me wanted to let my buddy at the dumb guy at the stands, and join in.
3) worst call i had to be part of: hitter lines one up the middle, right off the pitcher’s forehead, which immediately dropped him. ball goes straight up in the air, 3rd baseman catches it for the out. i have never prayed that a kid catches a ball so much in my life, because i don’t know what the right thing to do is in that case.
4) had to do a coach pitch league once. kid nubs one off the end of the bat, it spins around, and stops directly on the first base line. nobody on the field moves. coaches and parents yell at me “is it fair or foul?” i say “its fair, obviously” hell breaks loose. i actually called a do-over, and i feel dirty to this day.
5) i called a strike on a pitch that hit a kid. i still claim that i thought it was going to break into the strike zone, and he was leaning over the plate
by Expatcardfan on Sep 12, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I just think it's plausible that sportswriters and the like will chirp about it
They love those late-season correlations. Holliday joins the team, then all of a sudden we go on a huge tear and run away with the division. “He led the team down the stretch” or whatever. I doubt that anybody will put him first on their ballot or anything, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets some top ten votes.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
but he did give Boog some sunflower seeds.
so there’s that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 11, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
-dunc for MVP
/tooharsh?
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 11, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Holliday/MVP talk
comes from Goold comparing the numbers from Holliday’s partial season with STL to Manny’s partial season last year w/ LA.
I think his point was more about Manny than Holliday.
Random question
What do you all think are the odds Pujols will finish the season slugging .700? He’s currently at .698. He’s also currently the only MLB player whose SLG is at .600 or more (Mauer and Fielder are in the .590’s). Ironically you kind of have to have a decent BA to slug that high, due to the math of it.
Nobody has has a SLG over .700 since 2004 when some guy named Barry Lamar slugged .812 and OBPed .609.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
i think he'll get there
if he made it through it prolonged slump with his SLG still intact, chances are he is going to be able to raise it to and above .700 by the end of the season.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
done with class for the day
should i be doing homework? yes.
am i going to? probably not.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
ooh
cool info! hope he does it, didn’t realize it was that hard to do
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
since Goold has popped open the "Boog" thing
how long before Busch Stadium erupts in BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGs?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
when smart fans start going to games
namely, more people from VEB.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
you angling for tickets?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
always.
not really.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll start it tomorrow
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
awesome
I’m wondering if it’ll be a continuous booooooog or a chant of boog boog boog…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Or just some drunk, pasty, sometimes called a ginger, asshole in the Champions Club yelling Booooooog
During the National Anthem
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
at least take off you hat
don’t embarrass us by leaving your hat on
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
i thought about making a fanpost about this, then saw it was the main thread today
but how much do you think it’s going to take to sign holliday? how much should he be signed for? how much do you think he’s worth? what’s the maximum amount the cardinals should sign him for?
to me, it’s something that has to be done. holliday has done nothing but rake in his 1.5 months here, and the fanbase would be infuriated if he’s not back. he absolutely should break the bank at pujols’ expense, but if the cardinals need to shell out big bucks (namely, nine digits), i think they should at least think about it.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions
i think he will sign for a 5 year and $90M contract
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
with pastry incentives
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
3yr/50mm
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
you really think he'll take just three years?
and that’s a hell of a lot of money for just three years.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Holliday turned down a 4 year 72M contract from the Rockies because it wasn’t long enough. Higher AAV and length from the team that drafted and developed him…
Not afraid to nitpick
it's gone up if anything
and i’m convinced holliday just didn’t want to play for colorado anymore, no matter how much money he was going to get.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really for premium players
And aside from that, any deal signed is going to be pretty much recession free. In fact based on a lot of predictions, there’s gonna be some fat inflation in a couple years coming from all we’ve done to stave off deflation.
Not afraid to nitpick
Only 3 doubles?
Is that a typo? Talk about a difference between seasons.
On with the (good) youth movement!
that's what i thought too
i’m pretty sure he has more than 3 doubles.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
35 doubles, actually.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
OT: half priced tix to Marlins-Cards
secret code from the Redbird Report to get half price tickets to next week’s games
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a cat emerges from the ceiling
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIcvUtm0JEI
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions
thats a lemur
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 11, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
.gif)
i hate both of 'em.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Bad personal experience or illogical hatred?
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 11, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
illogical hatred
i’ve never liked feline animals. just ew.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what I thought at first (was about to make a Ryan Braun joke)
But it’s actually a critter form North America related to the raccoon. To confuse matters even more, there is definitely a lemur called the ring-tailed lemur, which is what I thought it was.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
can someone add a tail?
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 11, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
and here's everyone's favourite brewers LF...
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 5:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
I don’t have ESPN insider – not being a Yankees or Sawx fan, I don’t see the point – but this reference to a Buster Olney column at MLB Trade Rumors left me scratching my head.
One scout says Holliday was easy to pitch to in the American League, which could limit potential suitors.
Am I just naive, or does that seem like an odd comment? Why would he be “easy to pitch to” in the AL vs. the NL?
in the AL
he used a lego bat.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps. | Cards on Cards
what?
that’s a dumb comment. he raked in colorado and is currently raking in st. louis while underperforming in oakland, his only al team. that comment doesn’t make any sense.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
he also had an .880 OPS
from 01 May to the time of trade, in one of the toughest pitchers parks in the AL.
But I love the idea that there is doubt about his ability to play in the AL- it can’t hurt…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Didn't you read the rest of the artical?
The scout then started singing along with “wooly bully” by Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs; which was set as my cell phone ring tone; when I received a call. The Scout went on to explain that is okay to drink box wine found on a street as long as it is still sealed. He concluded the interview by throwing up on my shoe and then passing out in his own urine.
Anyway, to answer your question it is easier to pitch to him in the AL because that is the real league. The NL is just needs to get with the times. Pitchers running bases. WTF National League?!
This AL superiority kick has gotten WAY out of hand...
They seriously act like the National League is some sort of glorified AAA.
V, b.
The Nats, Pirates and Mets are
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
True...
But the Mets have an excuse. And I raise your Nats and Bucs with the Royals and A’s. Not to mention there are 2 more teams in the NL. It just gets under my skin.
V, b.
And the Cubs
/rimshot
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
strauss still doesn't get it.
my opinion for the last 7-10 days is that the Cy will become a match race between Wainwright and Carpenter. It’s difficult to imagine a 15-win pitcher (Tim Lincecum is stuck at 13) outpointing a 20-game winner (a conservative projection for Waino’) or the league’s most dominant second-half pitcher (Carpenter) who could finish only a win or two behind Waino’. I know the spreadsheet guys love to minimize wins, as if such obvious stats are for the unwashed, but that is why the game is played. Guys who move runners along don’t win MVPs. Guys who have nice WHIP and BABIP may be turn-ons for “new” thinkers. But ERA, innings, victories, win percentage and strikeout-walk ratio remain powerful indicators.
Umm, is anybody here appreciating a good WHIP? Does anybody really think that BABIP tells you anything about a pitcher? Strauss ought to at least figure out what we’re interested in before he knocks us.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Yes, because it's people like him that vote
Doesn’t make it right though (aside from innings, which certainly has some value in combination with the “new” stats Strauss referenced).
This is why we should not care about Cy Young or MVP awards. They are (currently) voted on old dogs who cannot or refuse to learn new, better tricks.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
well, yes. the point was that he thinks "new thinkers" love some WHIP and
BABIP as a measure of a good pitcher. I don’t know anybody who would use those among their first 8 stats for evaluating a pitcher.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
that part i agree with
i don’t know why anyone would evaluate a good pitcher with BABIP, as we usually only use it to evaluate pitchers who are obviously overperforming (cough cough ryan franklin cough cough). and for whip, who knows, strauss probably just threw out some random stat.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
WHIP & BABIP
are informative. It’s a strawman to say that the SABR-inclined completely discount wins, but at the same time Strauss’ point that wins are what baseball is about is unimpeachable. (At the risk of stating the obvious.)
It is sad that the award that’s supposed to go to the best pitcher is often determined by a statistic that the pitcher does not have complete control over, but then life isn’t really fair either….
Anyway, why even bother with Strauss? He loves throwing stink bombs, just let it go if he’s not contributing anything valuable….
As one of the more SABR inclined posters here
I will say that I haven’t looked at WHIP in 3 years, and I ABSOLUTELY completely discount pitcher wins.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess my point is
there has to be some sort of criteria to judge who the “best” pitcher has been for a full season. By tradition, more or less, wins are the big one.
In a perfect world, would you rather the CY be evaluated on the basis of one statistic? Say, FIP or tRA? Or should it be based on thorough, holistic evaluation of many different statistics?
Then I submit you’re still getting into subjective interpretation instead of just objectively measuring who’s done the best in some counting stat. Different people can draw different conclusions from the same data set. So we’re kind of back to an arbitrary standard for deciding who’s the “best”.
I don’t really have an opinion on this one way or another, but I think it’s an interesting topic….
He says they remain powerful indicators
Indicators of what? Is he merely making a statement about what the voters will do? If so I’m becoming more inclined to agree with him. However, if he’s saying they remain powerful indicators of actual talent/performance then there’s a problem. Because there are better things to look at.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Well, yes, but
it’s clear to me that Strauss saw an opportunity to bash stat-savvy fans and ran with it. He could have made that point w/o the gratuitous insults.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 11, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
strauss has got a point
i know you SABR guys are going to disagree here, and i don’t want to start a flame war a lot sooner, but i think strauss is somewhat right here.
by the time the season is over, wainwright is going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-22 wins and carpenter right around 20. especially for carpenter, those are insane type number for today’s baseball. carp has an era of 2.16, two point one six. that’s ridiculous, period.
i’m not saying lincecum is not in the hunt, but when it comes down to it, he does not have the wins to win the cy young. i know you guys don’t like wins, but baseball is about winning games. period. hence why the cardinals are going to the playoffs and the giants aren’t.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Cy Young is an individual award
Wins are determined by a team effort not a individual effort
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, but
voters are going to look at who actually won the most. carp and wainwright are going to the playoffs while lincecum is probably going to watch it on tv. that alone is enough to say either wainwright or carp is probably going to win.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not his fault that Bengie Molina, Juan Uribe, and (sorry to do this) Edgar Renteria aren't super stars
If you base his Cy candidacy on w/l, you’re penalizing him b/c those guys aren’t anything to write home about.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Cy young is the all time leader in wins
It’s supposed to be the best pitcher of the year but designed to reward wins
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 3:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hwat
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
But wins are team-dependent,
which is why Timmy has fewer wins. Still, I think Carp’s been dominating enough to win it with a straight face.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
i agree
his one hitter on monday seems to have sealed the day.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
sealed the deal
wow.
find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 11, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
it's your piss poor avatar & sig kid
i strongly suggest you change them before you embarrass yourself & family any further.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
That's a terribly simplistic argument
If you want to say the voters will make decisions based on w/l, then okay. But there is SOOOOO much that goes into w/l that is beyond a pitcher’s control that it is simply not an even semi-useful estimate of a pitcher’s performance.
So…I’m going to discount it nearly completely because it simply doesn’t tell you how someone actually pitched. It tells you how good a team is.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
People who don't understand math
are the ones who still believe in these voodoo statistics. There’s little else to it.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yes, but...
… many people who don’t understand math excel in other areas… like writing, for example… which could lead to a career as a sports writer, which can lead to having a vote for the Cy Young award.
Excellence in writing
is unlikely to lead to a career as a sports writer.
by alberich on Sep 11, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
You sir,
Get an Honorary Bat Flip for that remark. Congrats!
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 11, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Amen.
I was a sportswriter for a little over a year, a very long time ago in the SF Bay area. I was no great shakes, but the point is I met a lot of other sportswriters who were considered great shakes, and came away very, very unimpressed.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 11, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point
I think Strauss is just trying to pick fights.
You can count on a select group of “numbers guys” emerging with a contrarian view to prove their superior knowledge to the unwashed knuckle-draggers in the BBWAA. A lot of it is academic esoterica.
I think he must have meant Alcoholica Esoterica, because those discussions are engaged in quite often around here.
"There are three things the average man thinks he can do better than anybody else: build a fire, run a hotel and manage a baseball team."- Rocky Bridges
by That's a Winner on Sep 11, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
there he's even citing to somebody who argues that pujols should be
third in MVP voting on a WAR basis, which makes no sense since Utley and Ramirez are now a full run behind him in WAR. He’s probably garbling the original argument which likely factored in some positional scarcity on the part of Utley and Ramirez.
I have no problem saying Pujols is the MVP, and ever since he got back on his swing (he was briefly tied in WAR with Utley, iirc), i’ve not seen anybody propose he shouldn’t be, except for people who want pitchers in the mix.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
As an aside
I hate it when people point out Hanley and Utley et al’s proximity to Albert in stats like WAR and try to argue that it’s somehow more impressive because he plays first base. Most of those stats already make significant adjustments based on position. So to me it’s doubly impressive that Albert is so good that he can run away with the WAR title easily despite his huge positional adjustments.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
there does seem to be a little "double-counting" going on in those arguments.
but i also don’t see any serious sabr-types pushing that idea.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i wouldn't be too surprised if
pujols was third in WAR for a short period a couple of weeks ago. He’s had a monster week or two.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
If Pujols doesn't win the MVP then baseball is broken.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 5:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
Utley or Ramirez have just as strong of a case, so does Lincecum.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 12, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not averse to WHIP
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Question to consider
If a pitcher with the best defense in baseball pitched the exact same way as a pitcher with the worst defense in baseball (not worst defense possible, just worst current defensive team), how much would their WHIP’s be different?
WHIP’s not perfect, but it’s not as bad as W-L, AVG, SV
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Massively different
how much would their WHIP’s be different?
Good defense = fewer hits = lower WHIP
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Massively being...
.2? .1? I’m just curious.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Well how many H/IP would you predict the best vs. worst would save?
.2 would suggest the best. vs. worst would save about 2 hits a game.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 11, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why I'm asking
I don’t know
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The best defensive team
is at +65 and the worst is at -50 per UZR. Let’s call it 100 run differential for fun.
That’s about 125 “plays” made between the best and the worst team. So you’re probably talking about 100 -150 hits over the course of this entire season that the best defensive team will prevent compared to the worst. Add 25 hits to each of your starters hit totals and then recalculate their WHIP.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
That would not take in account the current level of defense behind the pitcher
What if they already play behind the worst defense in the league?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm playing a loose and fast here to make a point but
if you take Mike Pelfrey who pitches in front of the worst defense with his 1.51 WHIP and move him in front of the Mariners (subtracting 20 hits) his WHIP would be 1.38.
So whether you consider that massive in terms of WHIP, I don’t know (because it’s a shitty stat) but taking away 20 hits is like taking away 16 runs. So his ERA would look like 3.93 instead of 4.83. So that .15 change in WHIP takes nearly a run off his ERA.
I’d consider that massive. But again, these aren’t good statistics to evaluate a pitcher by.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
(This is being calculated over 160 innings.)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Why?
WHIP doesn’t really tell us anything FIP doesn’t, and it treats homers the same as singles. To me, it’s a useless stat.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
the best fielding team by UZR is the Mariners and the Mets .
A rigorous way to do this would be to get an excel spreadsheet and to compare these guys, but just by eyeballing it, the difference is huge.
Nine Mariners with FIPs under 5.00 all have WHIPs at 1.23 or under. Of 20 Mets pitchers wtih FIPs under 5.00, 10 have WHIPs of 1.50 or higher.
Eyeballing it, I would say it’s like .4 or .5 on average? pull the numbers out in excel if you want a hard number.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
* and the WORST is the Mets.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Everyone is being a little silly and contradictory
Sabr stats have flaws like regular stats and are designed for scouting to see what trends will continue, not to evaluate for awards. Also when you generalize a stat like wins there is more room for error but if you isolate a stat like fip there is less room for error but also more specific so it needs more help to be a good tool of evaluation. And the issue with wins is that it is a team stat, defense factors in to Whip, as do managers IBB or UIBB calls. Or if you want to focus on FIP it overly awards k’s, as someone pointed out yesterday, lincecum has more k’s and a better FIP but the other two things that factor into FIP, HR/9 and k:bb carp leads. ERA was actually a archeic sabrmetric designed to isolate just the runs allowed that the pitcher can help but you guys grill it’s flaws like it’s an acronym set out to end all of mankind.
The fact of the matter is sabra have flaws too and if you really want to evaluate how how good a player is balance the classic and sabr stats, otherwise you’re overreliant on sabr stats the same way you rip the media fir being over reliant on classic stats. If you just want to predict the cy then realize that the writers will go by the classic stats so look simply at wins, era, k’s, and ip because that’s all they will look at
ps I don’t mean to come off rude, I like it here, and also I can’t spel so please don’t anhaillate my grammer
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 3:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you are archaically annihilating us
I tend to agree with your summation. I might have new fanpost idea now. If only there was more time.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
Now I know how to spell archaic and annihilate, awesome
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 3:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
maybe this weekend I write it
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Sweet
I look forward to it
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Disagree
The reason these new stats correlate from year to year better (i.e. 2008 FIP predicts 2009 FIP and ERA better than 2008 ERA) is because they do a better job of isolating what the individual does. Are the stats perfect? No. But that doesn’t mean I want to take good stats and mix them with crappier ones to “legitimize” them. I’ll take the best indicators I can get and live with it.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
That's fine then
But while I also use Pythagorean record to see if a team needs to make a trade, don’t rip me for looking at the actual record to see who goes to the playoffs. The “good stats” are great scouting indicators and have some value for evaluating overall statistics but as much more heavily flawwed at certain points classic stats can be they have a good amount of value and are based on the name of the game, and if you don’t win(w) which is done by allowing less runs pitching(era) and scoring more on offense(RBI and runs), then the things like whip and ops+ suddenly don’t matter
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
based on the name of the game, and if you don’t win(w) which is done by allowing less runs pitching(era) and scoring more on offense(RBI and runs)
This is dumb.
1) Because it doesn’t matter what individual pitcher gets assigned a win. People love to conflate team wins with an pitchers record. They aren’t the same thing. Stop trying to compare them. The rules for a pitcher’s win are arbitrary and ignorant.
2) The scoring on runs is horribly subjective. What’s worse is that you can have a pitcher allowing a TON of runs but still winds up with a TON of wins. That doesn’t happen with modern statistics. Pitchers who have a great FIP have great tERA’s and WPA/LI. They all trend the same way.
Again, don’t conflate aggregate runs and rbis and wins as “the name of the game” with individual totals. They’re separate. When you’re looking at individuals it doesn’t make sense to look at those stats.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Sep 11, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The rules for w win can be flawed
But it is not useless and mr. “everything trends the same way” so do classic stats they just need a little more time.
Also you are still coming off very pompous. Seriously, bill James is a smart baseball bit not some baseball demigod that the game has been missing for 100 years.
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's just heard it all before.
Tell us, then, what use is there for tracking Ws for pitchers?
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Most stats have at least some value, yes.
But the more modern stats are improvements. And this can be mathematically verified, at least when it comes to the purpose of judging talent and prediction future performance. Modern stats have also done a very good job of figuring out what it is that leads to positive baseball outcomes (ultimately, winning and losing).
If we are pondering an individual award, why should we give the same value to older, inferior stats, which are affected by luck and team performance, than we do to stats that do a better job of isolating that individual’s contributions?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Ack. There are some grammar/typing fails in there. Forgive please.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Now that
Is the stuff a good debate is made for. I don’t agree but I absolutely respect it
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 5:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
*completely agree
I do mostly agree
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Right now, by wins, Jason Marquis is a "better" pitcher than
Tim Linececum.
i’m inclined to think that Marquis’ W-L record is helped by the fact that the Rockies have the best team wOBA in the NL. Linececum plays for the team that has the worst. the rockies score, on average, one run more per game than the Giants. that’s a huge factor.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
The older stats are all
counting stats. That’s basically what they are. Wins, runs, RBI’s, ERA, Batting average….doesn’t matter, they’re all ways of “counting” individual stats, or deriving a percentage from a “counted” stat.
The Saber stats are more correlative because they actively try and determine what each player is responsible for defensively, while factoring out the noise of stuff they can’t control. Take FIP vs. ERA. ERA simply counts the number of runs a pitcher gives up, then divides by the number of innings they’ve pitched and multiplies by 9 to get the number of runs averaged. All it is really doing is counting runs and innings and then fitting them into an established time frame to develop and average. FIP is actually taking into account only those things that a pitcher actually has control over (HR, BB, K) and then divides them by innings pitched. This gives you a lot better idea of what that pitcher is personally accountable for.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm willing to acknowledge differences of opinions on a lot of things
but people who use pitcher’s wins or RBIs or an runs scored to evaluate talent on an individual players level, don’t get it. Plain and simple. These aren’t good evaluation tools and ignorance of that fact isn’t going to get me to budge on it.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
You didn't explain why though
and you certainly didn’t link him to pages that he could look at to see why. You just called him dumb and capitulated your argument. I don’t think that’s a positive way to educate people on why the saber stats do a better job of evaluation.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Fourstick has a point
I think that there is a significant difference between someone who doesn’t know better and someone who does, and yet still argues against it.
I know I’m late to the game here, but what I’m saying still stands. Sometimes you have to back off on your vitriol and educate. If, say, I or viva or fourstick or DanUp built an argument around W/L then you’d be right to crush us, because, well, we know better. I’m not positive this fellow/lady does. Tread lightly, AZ!
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by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I know you get this a lot and are probably tired of it
And I don’t mean to come off as a guy who is just sniping at you, but you are coming off harshly. I realize that this kind of thing is sort of tiresome and, for someone as well-versed in statistics as yourself (and most of VEB), somewhat base. But really, there are simply nicer ways to put things. Why does your post need to start with “This is dumb”? It’s needless to tell someone that their ideas are dumb. Just explain why they’re flawed.
I know this is just your default internet setting, and that you don’t mean to come off “pompous,” but maybe you should start giving more thought to how you sound. You almost always sound aggressive when explaining things. It doesn’t bother anyone who knows you, but to new users, it’s off-putting.
I don't like to coddle ignorance
(and that’s what this is). The old stats aren’t good as predictors or really even measuring sticks. I’m not going to sugar coat something that is so simply wrong.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Also
this subject wasn’t one where the post was approached with a “why are modern stats better” but rather with a “modern stats aren’t better you should use both modern and classic” this would seem to indicate to me that the commenter is aware of modern stats but chooses to use wins and runs and rbis. I’m going to be harsh toward that perspective.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
That's fine
But being brusque doesn’t add anything. It just makes you seem like an asshole to people who don’t know you. Sometimes it’s as simple as using the word “misguided” instead of the word “dumb.” Or telling someone that they “shouldn’t do x” rather than “don’t do x.”
You’re obviously free to disagree with anyone, even adamantly. I mean, let’s be honest, the guy was wrong, I know that. I agree with everything you’re saying, factually. But there’s a fine line between being helpful and informative and talking down to people or seeming contemptuous.
I’ll be frank: if it were coming from a person whose intelligence and knowledge of the game of baseball and the Cardinals organization were less respected around here than your own, often your “harsh” approach to dealing with misguided commentary would be far less palatable.
If this is an argument over semantics
than I’ll cede. Could I have been more tactful? Probably.
The reason that I reacted as I did (and this isn’t an excuse merely my explanation) is that we should be past a debate over pitcher’s win totals. It shouldn’t even be a debate anymore. For whatever individual that brings it up, it may be their first time initiating the discussion (although I suspect that’s not the case here) but for myself (or you or foustick) it’s the billionth time we’ve had to confront that perspective. It wears me out.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
No worries
I don’t have any interest in an internet fight or anything. I have the utmost respect for you as a user. I agree that we should be past wins as a useful metric, but the fact is that some people come to VEB without exposure to that kind of thinking and could probably use the learning experience rather than being berated. I know that’s how I learned most of these ideas — I posted on intelligent internet forums, soaked up information from smarter people than myself, and was corrected when I was wrong. It is a process.
People should be corrected. It’s the only way to learn these things, since it’s not like you can turn on ESPN and find useful commentary. But tact is what it comes down to, in terms of our community being both intellectual and welcoming.
by mojowo11 on Sep 11, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The wrong person seems to be being called ignorance
Because if the subject was “why are modern statistics better” that’s just saying you should use modern statistics and everyone nit agreeing with you doesn’t make them ignorant and not ripping on people that don’t agree with you. I stated that “modern statistics” (Bill James’s babies) have great value and do isolate situations to prevent more flaws. I just stated that sabrs still have flaws and even though sports writers put way to much stock in them, classic stats still have some value and it is ignorant to think otherwise or belittle everyone that doesn’t agree. And you response was ignoring classic stats value and belittling people that don’t agree. Brilliant. So you just keep choking on Bill James’s manstick and treating people like you’re a scientologist.
The rest of the bill James junkies who don’t treat everyone like crap my apologies, I just feel classic stats shouldn’t be completely ignored just because other people overvalue them and I felt compelled to share. Im sorry about the delay in this response, i ran to the park for a hr derby with my buddies, but I appreciate everyones opinion and Im glad to be part of the site
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 6:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
just for future reference
don’t insult someone by telling them to choke on Bill Jame’s manstick.
C’mon, you are better than this.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Yeah, I was a little upset
Sorry
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 6:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what is the value of these classic stats?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
ERA or even RA
For example. They have flaws but you win by scoring more runs than the other team. And even though rbis are very dependent on the rest of the lineup, they aren’t completely dependent on the rest of the team and getting those runs in is extremely important. Obp means nothing without driving in the run and we all know how important obp is or we wouldn’t realize how dumb IBB’s are. That’s why sabrs are great for scouting because they isolate what a player control but when measuring accomplishment you should use all of your resources and classic stats take longer sometimes to trend together they always do over time (see pujols decade triple crown) and usually within a season, just not always within a season(see grienke, Marquis)
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 6:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I have no idea what your point is
So SABR stats isolate what a player actually controls, but you should still look at RBIs because they are correlated with what a player controls? Why not just look at what a player controls and leave it at that?
Not afraid to nitpick
the standard of "not completely dependent" on
the rest of your team, on the park, on the circumstance, etc. is not really a helpful one. lots of stats might SOMEWHERE have a kernel of utility to them.
you COULD amass a pretty good list of hitters by seeing who got the most PA’s in a year because better hitters will get more chances to hit. that will “trend together over time.” just because a stat can give you a list of some good players doesn’t mean it’s a good stat.
the point of the SABR stats is that you should try to use the BEST stats. i don’t understand why you would want to use stats just because they"aren’t completely dependent" on the team, etc., rather than because they are the BEST measure of the value of what took place on the field.
if you fart loud in the 5, 6, 7 slot on most teams, you’ll get an RBI. RBI’s are better at measuring where you hit in the lineup than your skill at baseball. OBP is more important because the person who gets on base (and thus doesn’t make an out) gives the opportunity for the RBI. You get an rbi for a sac fly, or even grounding out. grounding out and hitting fly balls aren’t baseball skills. the flyball or the groundout only become meaningful because somebody got into scoring position first. getting into scoring position is much harder than hitting a grounder or a flyball. that’s why we measure OBP rather than RBIs.
a tangible example — rick ankiel has 37 RBI’s; skip schumaker has 34. By any sane measure of value to the team, skip has hit better (.331 wOBA v. .290 wOBA for Rick). By RBIs, rick is better. and it’s not because his SLG is dramatically better than skip’s — .396 v. 394. it’s because he hits 6th and 7th a lot. so, when he grounds out or pops out, a run scores.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
There's a line here though
Again, late to the game, but I still feel you’re missing something that is key to a sophisticated understanding aof a baseball. Is a player fundamentally bad because he doesn’t have many RBI? Even if he plays on a pisspoor team? I wouldnt’s say so. I would say that unfortunate fellow is on a poor team, but is still a good player. I mean, if we’re comparing players, is it fair to judge them based on the team around them? Not really, IMO. Of course, in the long run, a pitcher with a billion swins is a pretty talented dude. But were Tommy John and Bert Blyleven similar pitchers b/c of their relative number of wins? I think not. Blyleven’s non-induction is a borderline abomination, and it’s mainly b/c he fell short of 300 wins becaus his team’s stunk. This is precisely why traditional stats should be taken in context: alone they show next to nothing.
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by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions
How about....
they have value because the game of baseball (players, fans, media) values them.
Winning post-season awards is dependent on them.
Getting into the HOF is dependent on them.
Getting raises in arbitration or having leverage in contract negotiations is dependent on them. (etc.)
Obviously they have tangible value (indeed, likely much more value in these respects than non-classic stats).
/devil’s advocate
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
but that's just begging the question.
if the public latched on to arbitrary facts like a player’s uniform number as something they liked, the affection of the fans wouldn’t make the statistic a valuable reflection of the player’s skill.
if by value, we mean is it something for which some people respect or appreciate players, okay. there’s no logical response to one person’s preferences versus another. there’s no right answer.
if by value, we mean reflective of skill, then these are bad stats.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I'm not begging the question!
I think it’s undisputed that media/fans/players value those stats. So the proposition is proved. (e.g. “Traditional stats have value because a player’s potential HOF induction is based on them.”)
And I didn’t argue that traditional stats are valuable because they are most reflective of an individual player’s skill. Clearly, they are not.
Ultimately, there is no right answer. I think this thread started on who should win the Cy Young. In the end, it’s a composite of baseball writers’ opinions about who is “best” using whatever criteria they want. And I’m fine with that.
p.s. I have a huge reproduction of La Chateau de Pyrenees in my living room.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
La = Le
/French class was evidently too long ago
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
And there it is:
I just stated that sabrs still have flaws and even though sports writers put way to much stock in them, classic stats still have some value and it is ignorant to think otherwise or belittle everyone that doesn’t agree.
This is the crux of the argument that you can’t seem to answer in anything other than vague platitudes. The classic stats DON’T have value in capturing individual performance better than modern stats (and the fact that you keep throwing out Bill James’ name shows how dated you are — if I’m choking on anyone’s "manstick it’s Tom Tango or MGLs) so why would we use them.
Come up with some substantive argument and we can discuss. I offered mine (correlation and prediction) earlier and I’m still waiting for a counter argument.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Also, as an aside,
I’m not a compulsive addict to modern statistics. I still think that the leverage index for relievers is flawed and I don’t like the contextual aspect of WPA.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
We were being figurative
not literal.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Where's fritz with his ASCII skillz when needed.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Wow I just read over that at it sounded brash
What Im trying to say is that you may focus on sabrmetrics and sportwriters nay look at traditional stats meanwhile I balance both when evaluating. And focusing on one stat or the other either direction is unwise. You have to use the stats appropriately, like focusing on sabrs when scouting, putting classic stars on a baseball card or in a box score, and balancing both when evaluating performance. And most of all, if you are going to throw out classic stats completely you have no need to label them all useless or “crappy stats” and act like everyone who uses them us below you in some way. Also as much as you don’t like it, the awards will likely be based on classic stats
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I kind of thought of it as
one is more of a counting stat, the other is more of a rate stat, hmm
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
wins, rbis, runs
are all great for the back of a baseball card, but they’re flawed since they’re pretty heavily team dependent.
Shut up, Fritz™.
well, Albert scores a lot of runs, so that is good
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's interesting how Runs are so undervalued compared to RBI
Of course both are teammate dependent. But Runs just don’t seem to get enough love even from the traditional stat types.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
most underrated stat in fantasy baseball, too
there’s a lot of 100RBI guys out there. 100run guys, not so much.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Why though?
He’s good at getting on base and has had Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, 2008 Ryan Ludwick, and now Matt Hollliday behind him.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you're talking about
RBI, sure. But pitcher Ws? There is nothing logical about basing the Cy Young on it, even though it looks pretty.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
yeah, Wins is probably the worst stat
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
it's the one that is decided most arbitrarily
I wonder why people put so much stock in it. I guess they are not thinking.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
saves and errors would like to have a word
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
the unholy stat triumvirate
of wins, saves and errors! they must be destroyed.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you read the dictionary today?
You have days when you post in cave-speak, and today you’re busting out the college vocab!
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
no, I am just well read
but sometimes my brain goes on vacation, or I am too lazy to think
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
oddly enough when I am sort of hungover
I get smarter. I am very odd.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it gives you lucidity
by slowing down your speedy brain.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
true
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
No Im a high iq
31 on my act and tutored everyone in high school then failed out of college the first year guy so my brain has lots of ups and downs
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you beat me on the ACT dammit!
got 28 on all for areas
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
4
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Guess we know why you didn't score higher on the math part
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Did I?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I see what you're saying
I guess what I mean is if you can’t get four/for right, math may not be for you?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
28 in math is pretty good I'd say
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, that was for chitown
Misread fail
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Internet high five, samesies
1390 SAT, fwiw
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
1450
But I took it twice so that’s might not be fair. I got 1380 the first time.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
OK, ok
35 ACT, 1520 SAT
But those were way back in the olden days. Apparently, the exams have been adjusted upward since.
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 11, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If you guys don't knock it off,
I’m gonna have to go crawl back into the primordial ooze.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, got me there
I, too, took it twice. 1260 first time, 1390 second. The ACT was my jam though.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
The first time I took the ACT
I was the most hungover I have ever been in my life. I threw up in my sleep and barely could function. Drank like a case of beer when I was 16. I ended up having to leave half way through the math section and voiding the rest of it to throw up. I was a mess. I still scored a 26 on that test. Did much better when I retook it but was always proud of that completely hung over 26.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Did Auburn require the SAT?
I don’t know a whole lot of people in the south that took the SAT.
V, b.
No
Some places I applied required it though
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 11, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
ditto
I applied to some east coast colleges that wanted it
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
nope but i rolled in there with a 33 / 1530
Proud to be a member of The Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever (9/10/09)
by slash2049 on Sep 11, 2009 5:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My parents beat me with a stick till I got a high enough score on the ACT
To get a Bright Flight Scholarship for $2000 a year. I was never good in English but smoked the read comp and math .
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
VEB is quite the statistical anaomly
Graph of ACT Scores
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
sort of like the unfrozen caveman lawyer
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just a simple cave man
Your advance statistics confuse and frighten me. I sometimes am not sure if they are mathematical formuas or some sort of evil black magic that should be burned with fire to earn forgiveness from the Baseball Gods. I don’t know much of your modern ways of analyzing baseball, but I do know this: the starting pitcher who wins the most games for a playoff club deserves my vote for the Cy Young award!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 11, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
you are not giving unfrozen caveman lawyer enough credit
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I never said wins were all that valuable
They’re not, but they do have some value and they do trend over time
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Did you know that errors actually correlate positively with UZR?
That means that the better you’re fielding percentage as, the worse a fielder you are (not in all cases obviously, but in the masses)
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
"Steve Garvey Syndrome"
Or maybe we should name it after Larry Bowa. It used to drive me crazy when announcers would talk up their defense because of fielding percentage.
Yeah, I've heard it a million times
“Blah Blah Blah’s been the best defensive team in the majors”
How do you know?
“They have the best fielding percentage”
Uh…
“….”
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
My college coach pulled that shit all the time
I played ball in the late-80s/early-90s, and I have to pat myself upon the back b/c my intuituve grasp of gaseball was actuatlly linked well with SABR principles.
At any rate, we had a SS and 3B my jr./sr. years who got to NOTHING! and yet my coach thought they were great b/c they rarely made errors and their fielding% were great. I played CF and got literally exhausted from having to chase down these routine GB’s our SS couldn’t get to. SSSSOOOO frustrating….
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions
You know...
I think most people who use wins even know, at least in the back of their minds, that it is unfair. I really think there is a power simply in the name “win”. Most baseball people are aware of Quality Starts, for instance. They probably know that it does a little bit better of a job than W/L does. But then again, they think, 20 Wins! I mean, Wins are Wins are they not?
This is conjecture on my part but I am pretty convinced of it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
ftw
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe we should rename a team win to a stat that we like
“And that’s a FIPper!!!!”
“Put another wOBA on the board for the Cardinals”
I see no way this can fail
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
We may have lost the game but we're still winning the WAR
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 11, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
oooh I like
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions
no, the stats are what they are.
it’s what people attempt to conclude from the stats that’s often flawed and illogical.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess.
I think that pitchers Ws make no sense, unless we’re talking complete game shutouts and the like. And since we already track those…
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
I got your point, it's just that....
people make illogical and flawed conclusions from the today’s nouveaux stats as well; not all that differently than from the old ones. It’s not the stat’s fault.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 11, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
and that happens with both
classic stats and the newer ones.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Since everyone thinks I'm here to be the stat boogey man today
please listen closely.
Using the stats you’ve listed (W, RBI, Runs) and I’d even extend that list (ERA, WHIP) to evaluate individual performance is shoddy evaluating. Plain and simple.
“Classic” stats document certain things and team wins are obviously what we track at the end of the day in terms of recording. But for individual performance, “balancing” the old with the new is not a good method because the old stats suck at measuring individual performance.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
yeah but
the other stats represent what actually happened, right? plus it’s nice to mix in the counting stats with the rate stats, no? or would that be like crossing streams…
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 11, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not right Chitown
The reason that people here, or at least me, don’t like traditional stats is that they don’t properly assign credit for each player. To help prove that better, I’ll reference Colin Wyers’ recent article at THT:
Every so often you will encounter someone who looks at this whole business of estimating runs and asks, “Why not just use runs and RBIs? Those are real runs, not all this nonsense!”
And at the team level, this is essentially true; outside of a few oddities (like a runner scoring on a double play ball or an error) a team’s RBIs and runs scored will be equal. So yes, at the team level everything works out. But the process by which runs batted in are assigned to individual players is not necessarily any more “real” than other methods we devise. And that process is based upon a critical misunderstanding of the nature of baseball.
The problem is that by awarding a run scored and a run batted in for every team run scored, it treats every run (except for when the batter scores on his own home run) as though it was contributed by only two players, and that each player contributed equally to that run. Both of those assumptions are pretty obviously not true, at least most the time.
As for for instance, let’s say that the first batter of an inning reaches base and the second batter drives him in. The first batter gets a run scored, the second gets an RBI (for that run). Now this is true if:
* The first batter gets hit by a pitch and the second batter homers.
* The first batter gets a single and steals second and the second batter gets a single.
* The first batter hits a triple and the second batter hits a sacrifice fly.
Does anyone really think that those two batters are equally responsible for that one run, in all of those cases?
And that considers only two batters. Of course oftentimes the player who drives in a run does not bat immediately after the batter who scores the run. And of course none of those batters are given any credit whatsoever for that run scoring. Using RBI logic, a player who strikes out is just as valuable as one who sac bunts a guy over to second or one who hits a single and advances the runner to third. Again, exactly how does that make sense?
There is also another way that a player can indirectly participate in a run being scored, and that is by avoiding outs. A team has a limited number of outs but, so long as they do not expend all of their outs they have a theoretically inexhaustable supply of plate appearances. A player who goes 4-for-4 in a game can make a positive contribution to his team’s total runs scored even if he never advances a runner and never comes around to score, simply by securing more plate appearances (and thus more scoring chances) for his teammates.
This is what I want to emphasize is that the process of awarding runs scored and runs batted in is simply a model for crediting the team run scoring process to individual players, and it’s a flawed model at that. It is not “reality” in the way that some anti-sabermetricians would have you believe.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"Wins"
This is idiotic:
I know the spreadsheet guys love to minimize wins, as if such obvious stats are for the unwashed, but that is why the game is played.
Because a pitcher who wins a 14-7 game, allowing, say, 6 runs clearly pitched better than a pitcher who lost a game 2-1 because the pitcher got a “win” and that’s why we play the games. Duh, idiot “spreadsheet guys.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 11, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We don't even use spreadsheets anymore!
It’s all about SQL now.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
YEAH BUT HE PITCHED WITH THE M'FING LEAD LIKE AN M'FING MAN!!!!!
Veterans understand that they have a lead and, as such, should simply heave shit up there and get GB’s! It’s what you spreadsheet dweebs don’t understand. Men play this game, not nerd-men. Men-men.
Dweeb.
/sarcasm
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions
The cubs broadcast just had a "hi guys in the truck" moment
Talking about some pirate alum getting two hole in one’s in one round. They’re not even playing the pirates. Are they in denial or do they seriously not notice the game going on?
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 3:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I do not think it means what you think it means
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 11, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice
I like the roundabout way to say TWSS
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 3:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was there
What a moment.
"Before every at bat I picture myself reaching down the hitter's throat and ripping his still beating heart from his chest, devouring it before his eyes and the eyes of his wailing wife, children, and entire family, and letting the blood pour down the front of my uniform to stain the now-hallowed ground from which I will deliver the first pitch." - Chris Carpenter
Yeah
That was amazing, the one and only Jack buck
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hooray
Jinny gomes!
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
*johnny
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 4:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just to get the best idea of what to look at for the Cy,
What are the stats that should be looked at in determining this? If we were going to build a true Cy formula that would tell us who best deserves it and one that could be universally accepted.
/ Like that will ever happen.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions
FIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, IP, GB%, LD% would be the first ones to come to my head.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
That's kinda what I figured but everybody has so many ideas about what is important.
And I am not the best sabr person but I do try. I just had to ask.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 11, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
mustache length
or mustache/beard ratio for the purists
by brackenthebox on Sep 11, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Amount of time spent choking on Bill James' man-stick should be important, I feel.
That puts Jose Contreras and Shairon Martis in the box seats this year.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 6:03 AM EDT up reply actions
What I hate about traditional stats perhaps most
(Sorry if this is kind of random, but I don’t know where in the conversation to put this)
People often treat the more traditional stats as if they are matter-of-fact. A “win” is a win, right? “I wanna know what pitcher is winning the most games”, etc. Well, it turns out that there is a formula for pitcher wins. Just like there is a formula for every other stat. This formula is arbitrary. It was simply decided that if a pitcher goes a certain amount of innings, and his team wins the game in a certain way, he is credited with something that we will call a “win”. Even something as simple as batting average is based on a formula. In fact, the formula for AVG is surprisingly complex and has its own little quirks.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Saves are almost worse in this way
He’s great! He keeps “saving” games! What a knight in shining armor!
Last year Lidge was perfect in saves. What people don’t pay attention to is that he never pitched more than a single inning and he inherited ONE RUNNER ALL YEAR. By comparison, Rivera (whose season was not “perfect”) inherited 20 runners. But everyone just assumes that Lidge was the best closer last year because he didn’t blow any saves. Sure, he didn’t blow any saves…but his saves were easy as hell.
And don’t even get me started on the tying-run-in-the-on-deck-circle rule. Stupid saves rule.
Yup, saves might be the worst of all
It’s funny that Lidge’s “perfect save” year and K-Rod’s record happened in the same year and both got so much attention.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I find it interesting
how the entire Phillie bullpen has imploded when that was their great strength last year. Madson hasn’t been good this year either, Romero missed the first 50 games and hasn’t been very good since, etc.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
see Cardinals circa 2006 playoffs, no?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
the sample size is so small over a whole season, relative to starters,
the year-to-year variation is huge.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
True
but there are a lot of bullpen guys who are pretty good from year to year. Lidge has a mental problem I think — either that or the league has figured out how not to swing at the slider in the dirt and he’s forced to get guys out with just a fastball. Madson I don’t get though — he was unhittable last season and most of the first two months, and then just can’t get outs the last two months.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Maybe the pressore of having to close?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
But he's been that bad even
when he hasn’t been closing. I’ve been watching him pretty close since April, because I always stock my fantasy baseball reserve roster with set up guys who have shaky closers behind them — like Aardsma, Rafael Soriano, Madson, and Franklin this season. Consequently, I’m leading my league in saves having drafted just one closer in the original draft (Rodney in the last round). Madson just hasn’t been that good, and his peripherals are even worse.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Poz had an blog post several seasons back...
…that basically said we might as well assign W/L based on whether or not the team won a game that said pitcher pitched in. That’s it. That would ACTUALLY be simple because, believe it or not and holy poo, W/L isn’t that simple AT ALL.
A pitcher must
- Pitch an appropriate number of innings
- Have the lead when he leaves OR
- Have his team take the lead before his reliever enters
- Somehow prevent his team from tying/falling behind when he leaves the game
This is far from simple. This is pretty daggone complicated. And yet the people who readily accept W/L won’t acknowledge that FIP is actually more straight forward. Maybe one day…
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Tonight's Lineup via BFeldman tweet
Schumaker 2B
Ryan SS
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
Rasmus CF
DeRosa 3B
Molina C
Pineiro P
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Sep 11, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
so i get the people hating the W stat...
Lincecum 7 No Decisions when giving up 3 ER or less… 3 Losses when giving up 3 ER or less
Carpenter 4 NDs when 3er or less…. 2 losses w/ 3ER or less (only gave up over 3ER once)
Waino 4 ND’s when 3er or less… 5 losses w/3ER or less
if they had those wins and negate those losses assuming thats a standard win...
Lincecum 13-5 becomes 23-2 WHIP 1.02
Carp 16-3 becomes 22-1 WHIP 0.97
Waino 18-7 becomes 26-2 WHIP 1.21
This is all subjective on how you figure this but its just a blanket statement of a pitcher giving up 3er or less and qualifying for the win should see his team victorious….
by 07saluki on Sep 11, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In other words
you just added up their quality starts more or less. Although your quality starts are more stringent (one less ER) than the actual definition of Quality Start.
FWIW, WW is leading the world in QS this season, with Greinke running second and Lincecum third.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I quite like QS as a "traditional" stat.
I think it’s one of the better ones.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions
OT: How has nobody in the whole baseball universe heard of Chris Coghlan?
Why is this guy not in the ROY discussion? I mean, he’s getting ZERO press.
464 PA, .308/.384/.445, 9 HR, .366 wOBA
He’s been pretty bad in left field if you believe UZR, but nonetheless — I hadn’t even heard of this guy until pretty recently, and I like to think that I’m fairly knowledgeable about these things.
Got him on my fantasy team
He took over for Hank Blalock @ 3B about 4 weeks ago and he’s been great every week since.
by EinFesteBusch on Sep 11, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
In fact, he's the best in my lineup so far this week
…though he’s only 3-12 with a double and 4 runs, but he steals bases and he doesn’t K that often.
by EinFesteBusch on Sep 11, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He's on my fantasy roster
I honestly didn’t realize that he was a rookie until just now though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Bless you for using
PAs instead of ABs.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 11, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that wins alone are a very overrated stat
But if combined with a great era and the number of innings you average per a start…. that is a great way to legitimize those win numbers
The Redbirds are of the highest priority to me... As it should be
don't get us started on how bad of a stat ERA is
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
except that wins only shows the quality of the team you are playing on
nothing more….
if you need to ‘legitimize’ a stat then its not worth much or it doesn’t explain what you are trying to explain very well
see Greinke, Zach
None of those things are really always under a pitcher's control though
You aren’t going to win games on a bad team, that’s why they’re a bad team, they don’t win a lot of games.
ERA can be effected by playing in a good or bad ballpark (Coors Field vs. PetCo Park), playing in front of great or shitty defense (’09 Mariners vs. ’09 Mets), and luck that hitters are having against you when they put the ball in play. FIP would be much better.
IP can involve a lot of things. Maybe your team has three awesome relievers and you never have to go past the 6th inning. Maybe your manager keeps your innings down because they fear you’ll get hurt by taxing yourself to much (Joba Chamberlain anyone?). Maybe you pitch in a ton of blowouts and throw more innings than you would in a 1 run game.
What rate stats attempt to do is isolate only those things that a player has control over and turn them into what looks like something similar to what the traditional stats are formulated as.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Also, What if you have shitty relievers
And when they relieve you with men on they normally let them score. It effects your ERA even though if you had better teammates it would not.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitchers don't earn wins
except on very rare occasions. Batters and runners earn wins. Pitchers prevent losses.
So is there a chance in hell of finding a hotel room in St. Louis next weekend?
i was so excited about going to the beer festival that I completely ignored the fact that the sorry ass team from Chicago was in town.
robble, robble
I might be in need of some coupon codes FLim
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Yea i didnt even bother.
Just take a cab home
What nights?
And you have paypal right?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick look is $73 a night at Crowne Plaza
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I saw that after I posted
i really need to pay attention to such things before I ask. It actually looks like I might be able to go.
SO EXCITED!!!
Oh yeah, how far from downtown is the Taproom? The map thingies are just confusing the hell out of me.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Not far
Also if you like shlafly you can hop on southwest ave and hit up bottle works
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sorry I didn't say how to actually get there
Taproom: take market out to turn right on 20th, turn left on olive, turn right on 21st and your there
or
same thing only a kittle farther out and kees crowded bottleworks: take 40(I-64) w to mccausland south, turn right on southwest
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
*little farther ou and less crowded
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
wait, I am seeing Crowne Plaza at 139
I must be doing something wrong
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Didn't see this but it's atleast a few minutes ago
Where r u now?
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's trying to book a room online.
He’s not driving around or anything.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Oh good
I was wondering wtf 139 meant
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
it is through priceline.com
Name your own price. Pick Saint Louis, MO I choose the dates Fri 9/18 to Sun 9/20. Choose Downtown and 3 star hotel. Your bid of $73 should be accepted. BUT I recommend logging into your Paypal account linking it to your real CC and downloading the Paypal Plug-In so you can use virtual cards. By using virtual cc numbers you can bid low and see if it accepts. If it doesn’t make an new cc # and delete the old one. Repeat till you get the price you want maybe 60, 70, 73
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 11, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks a lot man
I knew you could help a VEB’er out
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Join us as the Cardinals continue the march towards a Central Division title – and catch the Cards / Marlins series for half price: Redbird Report subscribers can purchase any available ticket at half price for Monday (9/14), Tuesday (9/15) or Wednesday (9/16) vs. Florida. To participate, just use the coupon code REDBIRD. Take advantage of this special offer today!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Got another possible coupon for everyone
Was at the game a couple of weekends ago and it was jersey off their back day. I bought some of the vouchers and, although I didn’t win a jersey, I did win a couple of buy one get one free tickets for next year. Thing is, looking at how to redeem the free ticket on the back of the voucher, all you have to do is enter the coupon code “JERSEY”.
This offer is good for any Monday- Thursday game, excluding opening day, cubs games, and games in July. Coupon cannot be accepted before March 15th of next year though. I’ll try to remember to remind everyone when it gets closer to the date.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Ozzie calls Boog a 'godsend'
i’m finally listening to this clip. the Boog stuff starts around 9:00 but … 6ly, he’s The Wizard. Listen to the whole thing.
http://www.101espn.com/post/18977_the_fast_lane_show_note_thursday_91009/audio
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and yes, that's a dirty teaser.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Ot
My sister just told me that she wanted to read her fortune but she doesn’t want to eat the cookie and now she doesn’t know what to do . . . . And she was being serious!
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I actually don't like FIP or tRA for the Cy Young
While those stats eliminate defense pretty well, they also elminate timing at the same time. By that I mean that they assume all pitchers are equally as good with runners on base and ordering the sequence of their events.
While it’s true that most pitchers don’t have a true skill to be much better or worse than their tRA, stranding runners is almost completely on them, and it has obvious value. For me, that should be considered for the Cy Young, as the guys who are able to escape jams perform better than the guys who don’t.
Smoltz.
Yeah
I’m conflicted but I’m tempted to go with what actually happened over what should have happened for things like the Cy. Makes it more subjective and fun.
Not afraid to nitpick
At the same time
Defense should definitely be taken out of the equation. Maybe you could scale ERA down based on the quality of defense behind the pitcher? However, you would need to figure out how well the defense has played when that specific pitcher is on the mound.
PZR anyone?
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't LOB% regress to around league average in the same way BABIP does?
Sounds like we’re ranging into the enigmatic and dangerous land of clutch.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
A beautiful land of mistery and small sample sizes
That might have some value when analyzed enoug if the lifetime achievement award wasn given to Derek jeter for being on the right spot to flip it to the catcher and having a decent ba in his ws or two.
Does anyone have a stat for go ahead hr’s when tied and when down over the last five years. Seems to me Albert would dominate that even if very few were “walk-off” but maybe that’s just being a cards fan
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You should just look at WPA for clutch
It’s awesome. It attempts to measure the how much a player adds to his teams chances of winning.
For example, if Pujols comes to the plate with a runner on in the bottom of the 9th and the Cards down by 1, the Cards may only have a 10% chance of winning. However, if he hits a home run, they have a 100% chance of winning.
So Pujols’ WPA for that home run would be .90. This year, Pujols has been a WPA monster with a mark of 7.54!
You can take a look at the full leaderboards here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=3&season=2009&month=0
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome
Thanks viva
Albert is ridiculous
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, how do they get the clutch for the column on the right?
Anyway I’ve heard EPA before and had gotten the jist of what it meant and liked it, but now that I sort of understand what it means a little more from your .9 example I like it even more
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think "Clutch"
Is WPA minus what the players expected WPA would be. For example, you would expect Pujols to have a WPA of about 6.5, but he has been “Clutch” this year, so his actual WPA is higher.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying it's a skill
It almost certainly isn’t in most cases. However, it is solely in the hands of the pitcher and it does have obvious value.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
If it's not skill though
than we’re handing out awards for luck, no? That offends my sensibilities.
If we’re talking about timing that seems to be close to the area of pitchers who can “pitch to the score”, which personally I have huge doubts about the validity of that philosophy. I’m not sure that pitchers really have any control over timing.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I agree that pitchers don't have much control over timing
However, that is something that is solely in their responsibility and it does have value. For Cy Young, which is explicit a value award, it is more than acceptable to consider timing.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
But if a pitcher can't control it
how can it be their responsibility? And if they can’t control it, why would you consider it?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
A pitcher can't control when Pujols hits a homer off of a slider down and away, yet it still counts
Also, the entire point of being a pitcher is the give up the least amount of runs possible, not to have the best FIP. If a pitcher pitches poorly with runners on base, he’s not doing his job even if it isn’t a repeatable skill.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 11, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
why would it regress to league average, though?
While stranding runners may not be a skill, getting people out certainly is. Guys who are good at getting people out should have higher LOB%, right?
Or maybe LOB% is just an awful stat, since a guy who gives up 5 singles and a home run per inning will have an LOB% of 0, just like a guy who strikes out the side evey time. We probably should be looking at something like (brainstorming) RA/baserunner, or something.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Guys who are good at getting people out should have higher LOB%, right?
Correct. If you’re better at getting hitters out, there’s a correlation to a higher strand rate.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
is there?
i was supposing that there should be, but I have no idea, really. Makes sense, but a lot of things that make sense are wrong.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Well it seems pretty obvious IMO
If you’re a pitcher who gets an out in 3 of every 4 batters, you should have a similar percentage in all situations. If the average out% is 3/5, then the average pitcher should have a similar percentage in all situations. 3/4 > 3/5, so the better pitcher would have the better strand rate.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 12, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Is strand rate really on them though?
If they give up a 24 hopper that their fat 3rd baseman doesn’t field and leads to a run, is that their problem? I’m thinking no. Is RBN8206 missing something here?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 12, 2009 3:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not talking about strand rate
It’s undeniable that some pitchers have years where they pitch poorly with runners on base, and when they pitch well.
If you want to take the defense aspect out of it, you could do something like tRA/LI, but that takes considerably more work (and a retrosheet database), so I think we can probably find a decent substitute.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 12, 2009 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
that fielding of Motte's was badass
I forgot how awesome that was.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
omg Cat shut up. let the Sauce speak!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it takes a village to raise a Sauce, it seems.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and they end with a fist bump
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
As ling as sauce talks to the glove I will be happy to be the village
When he doesn’t his era must be 90.51 or something
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
*long
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Omg
Anything is possible when you’re a cardinal.
My heart is warmed
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Sep 11, 2009 7:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
it's lame video editing, though
the all-team one is the best, because it has highlights from the whole season
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Smoltz and Chipper have a nice man-hug.
it was plenty manly. there was a fist involved.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that's what I was thinking.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
you sick, sick bastages!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Was that one for spants?
FIST!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 12, 2009 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions
BASEBALL!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
baseball players don't believe in math.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Alex is pissing me off
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/free-allen-craig/
(scroll down to comments)
Unfortunately, I can’t yell at him because I actually write for the site and don’t want to get “fired” for internet beating some guy. Who wants to help?
Smoltz.
Can you just call him a fucking idiot?
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 12, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Idk, just forget about the fucking
Also, think of a cooler insult than “idiot”. I know you can do it!
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 12, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
death to all who oppose freeing allen craig
i was pissed when he didn’t get a call up LAST year.
FWIW, his MLE from minorleaguesplits.com is a .768 OPS. Which is almost a win better than what Thurston has given us offensively, over 300 PA, and it would be free.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
His BP translation (regular not peak)
comes in at a .875 OPS. That’s a huge difference and I have no idea what would be driving that,
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
BP translations have him
as one of the top 10 hitters in the PCL.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
BP translations are often wrong
See Matt Weiters last year.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 12, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
like they leave that shit up for anyone to do correlation tests on . . .
they’re not my favorite but that’s an egregious difference. Let’s compare the framework . . . o wait, another black box BP tool.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
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