Guest Post: Happy Birthday, Edgar Renteria
[Hello everybody, danup here. When our very own Hardcore Legend suggested he take a look at Edgar Renteria's Hall of Fame credentials—you've read that correctly—on this, Edgar's 34th or 33rd birthday, depending on who you ask, I could think of no better way to spend our no-baseball hangover. I'm not convinced he's anywhere near the Hall of Fame, but I am convinced that if Renteria has one renaissance left in his bat he could make the BBWAA cry sorrowful tears. Take it away, HL. My post will come on at 11 AM, Best Fans in Baseball Daylight Time.]
Happy Birthday Edgar! With Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter the only remaining players from the Cardinals' last 100 win team, it seems time to start looking back on the early aughts with nostalgia instead of holding on to them in a bitter struggle to reclaim that glory. Of those active former Cardinals there are slim HOF pickins'. Obviously Albert Pujols has arguably played himself into the HOF already. JD Drew never realized his full potential. Chris Carpenter's brilliance and dominance has been too interrupted by vacations with Dr. James Andrews to give him a shot at it. Younger guys like Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina are simply too far away to make any real projections. Jim Edmonds will be a case study in defense + small window of amazing offense + steroids era.
So we are left with two: Scott Rolen and Edgar Renteria. For Edgar's birthday, we will examine him.
Edgar was blessed with the good grace of not only debuting at age 20 to the MLB, but contributing. For marginal HOF cases, racking up those counting stats helps if you get a very early start. In his days with the Cardinals, Edgar had his peak two year stretch in 2002 and 2003. During that time, Edgar Renteria was the best SS in the National League, cresting, according to fangraphs, at 4.9 in 2002 and 6.8 in 2003. (For comparisions' sake, the highest Cardinal full-time SS's have had since then was Eckstein's 3.4.)
Edgar has been a two-time Gold Glove winner, three-time Silver Slugger and five-time All-Star, but barring an injury to Hanley Ramirez or some absurd revitalization in his mid-thirties he's never going to win those first two awards again.
An interesting comp for Renteria is Dave Concepcion. Joe Morgan would tell you Dave belongs in the HOF. Concepcion won 5 Gold Gloves and was a 9 time All-Star in large part to playing for one of the most popular and dominate teams of the era. Another is Alan Trammel. Trammel is fiercely defended by Tigers fans as more deserving than Ozzie. They believe Trammel would be in if he did backflips.
The thing to note here is that Edgar Renteria probably has one true claim to the HOF: his bat. Alan Trammel had 2,365 hits and 1,003 RBIs. Dave Concepcion had 2,326 hits and 950 RBIs. Edgar Renteria already has 2,157 hits and 856 RBIs. In two more seasons, he's likely to pass both of those candidates.
So what are Edgar's chances? Using Bill James' Favorite Toy, Edgar Renteria has a 48% chance of reaching the magical 3,000 hit plateau. Unlike the 500 HR club, the BBWAA hasn't yet found that club to be diluted; the only 3,000 hit members not in the HOF are Raffy Palmeiro, Pete Rose and Craig Biggio. The first two will likely never get in because of character issues, and Biggio is future first ballot material. In fact, the only players with more than 2,800 hits not in the HOF are the 3 listed above, Harold Baines (DH!!!!1!), and Barry Lamar Bonds. Using BJFT, Edgar Renteria has a 78 % chance of reaching 2,800+ hits. Even if you added a year to Edgar's age, he still has a 65% chance of reaching that total.
With 2,800 hits, Edgar Renteria would have more hits than ANY HOF SS not named Cal Ripken (who moved to 3B), Honus Wagner and Robin Yount (who was a CF). That's high cotton.
What about RBIs? Using Bill James Favorite Toy again, Edgar Renteria has the highest probability available of obtaining 1,000 RBIs. That may not seem like a huge number, but looking at the HOF SS list it would put him once again ahead of Trammel (assuming he could scratch out 4 RBIs) and of those in only 9 of the current group would have more. If he could reach 1,200, only 6 would have more.
The only other number that Edgar could add to this list that would help him secure a spot in Cooperstown would be 600 career doubles. He's 192 doubles away and only has about a 15% chance of reaching that total. It would certainly help his case but I honestly don't believe it's possible unless, again, he finds the fountain of youth.
The better players he'll be going up against, like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, shouldn't exclude Renteria. He will force the BBWA to change their approach to certain benchmarks. If getting 3,000 hits secures a guy a chance at being a HOF'er, then Edgar Renteria is likely going to get in. Otherwise, no benchmark will be safe.
A lot of people still bitterly remember Edgar for the one-two punch of making the last out of the 2004 World Series and then leaving a deal on the table to go to Boston. I don't look at him that way. I remember being bitter during August of 2003 when the Cardinals were seriously considering trading Edgar at the deadline. I'll remember Edgar taking Alfonseca deep for the walk-off vs the Cubs in 2002. Hopefully, I'll get to remember those things one day when #3 hangs on the wall at Busch Stadium.
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waino wasn't on the '05 team was he?
i thought ’06 was his first season
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml
2 apperances for a 13.50 ERA
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Who's that guy you mentioned before Wainwright???
Is that an unnecessary comma? All I see is this:
“Younger guys like , Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina are simply too far away to make any real projections”
I noticed that too
he might just be clearing his figurative throat, so as to sound more forceful when he talks up Adam Wainwright, the Best Pitcher Between 27-29 in Baseball.
If I'm known for one thing,
it is for parsing sentences, needlessly, with the use of commas.
Just ask all my professors.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 7, 2009 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, if Edgar Renteria were able to get 3,000 hits and make it to the HOF
imagine the insane amount of pressure it put on Molina to have a HOF career.
Can you imagine being THAT guy, the guy wearing #4 when numbers 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 would all be retired?
Don't freak Yadi out yet HL, the young man has a long way to go.
But I wonder what kind of a career he will have to have. I mean he hits good but not .300 every year good. He has home run power but not Albert’s kind. Is what Jimmy does a precedent? Can + defense get you there? I realize that Ozzie did it mostly with defence, he was no juggernaut with a bat although he had some decent years, but can a catcher pull that off? Guess only time will tell. But that would be cool to have 1-6 retired.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 7, 2009 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions
10 Gold Gloves and he would be in.
2,000 hits + 10 Gold Gloves and the BBWA would vote him in.
However, sadly, I don’t Yadi has a chance at either of those. He’d have to really become an amazing hitter over the next 5 years to get close to achieving either of those.
Yes, irony was intended when talking about offense for Gold Gloves.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 7, 2009 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions
He is achieving increasing recognition as "the best defensive catcher in baseball"
that sort of tag can win you a lot of GGs (although he should probably have 2 or 3 by now, which is unfortunate, because I could see him winning another 6 or 7, conceivably, but I just don’t think his body will last long enough to get 9). Greg Maddux had the whole “best defensive pitcher in baseball” thing going, and that got him GGs year after year after year…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 7, 2009 5:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Maddux was also the best PITCHER in baseball
Not taking anything away from his defense, but for hitters, hitting ability plays a part in winning GGs. Why not pitching ability for pitchers?
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
Yadi has the homerun power of David Eckstein
just because you can hit a homerun, doesn’t really mean you have “homerun power”
I Don't See...
…EdRent getting 3,000 hits, or even 2,800 hits. I think this year in SF really exposed his poor range defensively, so unless he finds an-udder position to play (DH perhaps?), this may be his last year starting for anyone. I always liked EdRent, and I hope for the best for him, but he is not trending well as he ages.
:=8/
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
I was afraid that would be the answer.
And I too do not see him being able to pull that off. He would have to morph into Johnny Bench or Ted Simmons. And the catcher’s position can be a cruel bitch, just beats you up like no other.
Unless he can do a Mike Piazza and change positions, but Yadi is a catcher thru and thru and unlikely to adjust well to that. I wonder if they take into account the handling of a pitching staff, he could pull that off.
I do not understand how you can give a guy a GG on what he does with a bat. I realize that that isn’t all of it but if one guy hits and another guy doesn’t, with all things being equal the the guy that hits wins. Just chalk that up as one more thing that puzzles me in life.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 7, 2009 3:57 AM EDT reply actions
Yadi doesn't have the bat to change positions
he hits well enough to be a catcher or a shortstop, and he sure as hell will never play SS.
His hitting has improved
and Benito Santiago followed an aging curve that cancelled declining defense with improving offense. Yadi could do something like that.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I certainly hope that is the case.
I always liked Santiago, he was pretty damn good for a long damn time.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 7, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
HL
Can you or somebody recount what happened in August 2003 with Edgar and why? My memory is fuzzy (first semester of college)
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 7, 2009 5:13 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
mine too
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Larry Walker...
Member of the ‘04-’05 teams and a pretty surefire HOFer. He wouldn’t go in as a Cardinal, obviously, but he certainly warrants mention.
Renteria surely doesn’t get his number retired for 6 good but not great seasons as a Cardinal, right?
i dont think Walker gets in
he doesnt have the counting stats for the BBWAA to look at him as a serious candidate and most of his best years were in Colorado so that will hurt him too.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
He rates pretty well on BRef
Black Ink: 24 (Avg HOFer ~27)
Gray Ink: 116 (Avg HOFer 144)
HOF Monitor: 147 (Likely HOFer 100)
HOF Standards: 57 (Avg HOFer 50)
And it’s hard to say that he was just a product of Coors when his career OPS+ was 140. The BBWAA doesn’t care about OPS+, I realize, but the above stuff is usually a good indicator of likelihood of entry.
For comparison’s sake, Renteria has a 95 OPS+ and…
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 22
HOF Monitor: 94
HOF Standards: 30
And Walker was an excellent defensive player, so while Renteria played a more premium defensive position, I don’t think he gains that much ground on Walker due to defense (Renteria’s hit a defense decline phase that afaik Walker never really hit). It seems to me that if Renteria is even under consideration, then Walker’s got to be in.
your not going to get an argument from me, personally
but i dont think 2100 hits and 383 HR playing most of his career in the steroid era will play well with the voters. For me, i would put Walker and Edmonds in but have to leave out Renteria and Rolen. The latter two of course could prove me wrong because they are still active.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
I think he gets in
You don’t see many guys with slash lines of .300/.400/.500. Add that to his spectacular defense and i don’t see how they keep him out.
by birdlandkustl on Aug 7, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Edmonds' window...
of amazing offense was not small. He posted consecutive seasons of 146, 148, 158, 160, 170, and 137 OPS+ and he had seven seasons of 110-137 OPS+ sprinkled around his peak. There’s nothing small about any of that.
I’m always arguing this with non-Cardinal fans… If I have to argue it out here, the Edmonds for HOF effort is obviously doomed.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
It's really pretty sad
I’m starting to think that Edmonds is one of the most underrated players of his generation.
Man I was such a huge Renteria fan but...
…now? Not so much. It’s not that I don’t like him. It’s just that the whole Boston situation turned me off.
If it wasn't for Renteria leaving for Boston
we wouldn’t have Colby Rasmus.
It helps ease the giant knifewound in your back.
Thats asssuming he would have been taken 29th
or that they wouldn’t have still taken Greene 30th the difference between 28 and 30 that year could end up being huge if the 29th pic would have been Colby.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
This was a great post
HL has actually convinced me that the voters might put him in the hall. What’s great about HOF discussions is that there are so many levels. Will player X get in? Should he get in? Do the latest statistical methods indicate that he deserves to get in? Do voting trends say he will probably get in? Players Y, Z, are similar; do they get in? Etc. etc.
I also like how you didn’t actually mention WAR, but it’s pretty much assumed that you’re talking about WAR with Edgar’s 2002 and 2003 numbers.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I don't see it.
I grant you that if he gets 3,000 hits, he’ll have a pretty darn good chance, but teams are turning to younger players now with the page turning from the steroid era. He also seems to be in decline, with negative UZR/150 ratings since 2005 and with sub .700 OPS’s now the last season and a half after having sort of a renaissance year in Atlanta in 2007 (although he did only play in 124 games that year) and his WAR is actually at 0.0 so far this year, so hypothetically, he hasn’t actually contributed ANYTHING this year at all.
Because of his slipping defense and the fact that, outside his 2 years in Atlanta, he hasn’t posted a WAR higher than 1.9 since 2003, I just don’t see him being part of a lineup long enough to make most of those milestones, and my guess is the Bill James tool is really only applicable if the person is expected to have the same rate of ABs for the next several years.
Meanwhile, Edmonds was not only arguably the best defensive center fielder over his Cardinals years, he also posted OPS’s over .900 for 6 consecutive seasons. I haven’t done the research, but my guess is the number of players with 6 consecutive seasons with such high production is pretty slim.
Edmonds’ main knock in my mind is the counting stats. He has 382 HRs during the steroids era and he comes in shy of 2k hits at 1,881. So Edmonds’ chances at the HoF is probably a long-shot, but he’ll probably at least get a few votes. Unless Renteria starts producing at a greater level, I don’t think he’s going to be able to put up the numbers to even get him into the conversation.
by mtalken on Aug 7, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think you're right on both counts.
Renteria’s only shot is getting to 3,000 hits and I don’t really see that happening. Edmonds will be the interesting case. I think he’ll probably fall a little short, but maybe he could hang on in a Jim Rice kind of way. I could see the Writer’s starting to tell glorious stories of Jimmy Baseball’s flying leaps. Time might help that out. And don’t lose sight of the nickname, that stuff doesn’t hurt a bit.
by MinnesotaCardinal on Aug 7, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
jimmy's leaps
thanks to the “sportscenter” type world we live in they’ll help him alot. Every year there is some turn over in the voters, the younger they get the more it’ll help jimmy.
"Chuck Norris CAN divide by zero"
It's sad really...
Jimmy should have been playing somewhere this year as the LH’d half of a platoon. He likely could have acheived 400 HR’s and 2,000 hits (needing 18 and 119), which would probably be enough to get him in. He is certainly better than a great deal of current OFers, and would have likely taken a low base incentive laden deal. He was my favorite Cardinal when he was here (only because Albert’s everybody’s favorite), and I hate to see his career end the way it did.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Most popular and dominate [sic] teams
It’s just like it came straight from Joe’s lips to our ears, so to speak.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Aug 7, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
My favorite Edgar Story
My buddy used to be the club house manager for the Cardinals so he saw and heard of many crazy stories. My favorite one though is when Edgar almost beat up Mike Shannon on an airplane because he caught Shannon cheating at cards.
Stat Whore
I remmeber the Edgar impersonator.
That guys social life must have fallen off a cliff after 2004.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
Shout Out to the Eviliest Frog Around
I finished the Winds of War and now onto War and Remembrance
Stat Whore
It has seriously changed my views of WW2
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 7, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes they are fiction
But based around historical facts
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 7, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Dunno if you're a fiction or non fiction guy
And I don’t wanna start a 200 comment thread about books again – hahaha.
I’m a nonfiction guy who likes reading about WWII. Citizen Soldiers is an excellent book. excellent. If you can wade through the the boring stuff about Hitler growing up, The Third Reich can be a fascinating book.
I am non fiction history type
I mostly stick to books about American imperialism, the economic and military effects of American Colonialism
But this book is an excellent read. It is about all aspects of the war. I mean Winds of War ends at Pearl Harbor. So it is a 1000 pages about the build up to WW2. The fictional part is just about the a Navy family in the middle of it all.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 7, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Colonization in America
I have a solid interest in the colonization of the New World. Some of which is driven by genuine curiosity about our history, some of which is based around playing the old Sid Meier’s Colonization (and the new iteration). My brother and I have been discussing game ideas for that franchise for a while now. Was even breaking out the old 1994 game for a while, still having fun with it after all these years.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Aug 7, 2009 2:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also not seeing it.
Renteria never really had that sharp, dominant peak, nor will he have the long, consistently decent career. He’s probably less likely to get in than Garret Anderson- another mediocre shot at 3000 hits who’s also around replacement level now. He’s a SS from the offensive SS renaissance who wasn’t top 3 with the bat. Ozzy and maybe Vizquel are the glove men of his era. He was good on defense when he was with the Cards, but he’s just been bouncing around average for the last several years. He looks like he’s in terrible shape and it doesn’t seem possible that he’s two years younger than Miguel Tejada (who still hits enough for a position switch and is better than league average over all).
15=/=25
The more I think about it,
the more I think Edmonds has to be in. He has the gold gloves, but he really deserved them. His offense was above average, and like most people remembered for their D, that should be enough.
15=/=25
7 years with an OPS+ over 130
is more than slightly above average. and he had a total of 12 years with an OPS+>100 and a career OPS+ of 132 over 16 seasons. Ken Griffey Jr has a career OPS+ of 137 12 over 130 and 19 out of his 21 seasons have been above 100. Edmonds is around Griffey when it comes to offense to me, he just didn’t have the length of career. If anything hurts Jimmy Ballgame it will be only having 16 seasons.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
that was my point...
Edmonds is one of the top offensive CF’s of all time not just “above average”
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
I took slightly literally
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I hope that you are right on that.
Nothing would make me happier than to see Jimmy’s induction.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 7, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
How could you?
You talk of the ‘04 Cardinals and don’t even mention Jason Simontacchi?
Also, I agree that Larry Walker will get a look for the HOF. I’m sure he will linger on the list for a year or two before dropping off with not enough votes.
simontacchi is one of my biggest differances with TLR
It bothered, still bothers me, that he used him as a sacrificial lamb against clemens in yankee stadium for clemens’s 300 win. I have been at a post season game and that was the feel i got there that night. didn’t give him much, if any, chance to win
"Chuck Norris CAN divide by zero"
I was at the 2002 Renteria walk-off game
Had tickets in the field boxes down the right field line. After watching Matty Mo get beat up in that game, my friend and I had decided to stay because we were making nice with some ladies and figured their might be some post-game action. Little did we know that we would end up watching a great 9th inning comeback. By the time Renteria got to the plate in that inning, we were pretty sure he was going to do something good…the Cards had all the momentum and Alfonseca was already beat. Great game to be at. It is still one of my favorite games I have attended.
One of my favorite games as well
My buddy wanted to leave, mainly because it was raining intermittently and we had (literally) top row seats in dead left field. I convinced him to stick around because by the late innings we could move down. We ended up sitting 3rd row in the second level right between directly behind home and the first base dugout for the 8th and 9th. Awesome, awesome game.
So
Did you get anywhere with those ladies?
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 7, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
A little paradise by the dashboard lights
The euphoria of the victory led to a daliance in the empty stadium lot.
by indakind on Aug 7, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good info HL
I think his counting stats are going to be right up there, but he doesn’t pass the sniff test, and I think that’s what’s going to keep him out. What’s the sniff test you ask? I define it as saying a player’s name and making a snap judgement about whether he’s a Hall of Famer, like this:
Cal Ripken….Hall of Famer
Ryne Sandberg….Hall of Famer
Derek Jeter….Hall of Famer
Jim Edmonds….well, hmmmmm, lets look at his stats
Edgar Renteria…..really? He wasn’t a top 3 SS in his era and wasn’t ever the best player on his team. His stats say what? Oh, well I still don’t think he’s in…
See what I mean? I think that’s what has hurt guys like Concepcion, Trammell, and, above all, Bert Blyleven. I think they all merit high consideration, but yet when you say their name and think about their career, you just don’t automatically think “HOF player”. It certainly isn’t fair, but unfortunately I think that this is the way that a lot of BBWAA writers think.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Also
If Biggio doesn’t get to 3000 hits, is the still a HOF player? I just don’t know about that one, and the case is much harder to make, you have to admit that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Biggio reminds of Palmeiro (w/o Steroids)
Is a player HOF worthy because he was good but not great. But was good for a long time. Should HOF only be for great players or good players that play long count also?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 7, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting.
The more I think about Biggio the more convinced I am that he’s gonna get in, and I’m OK with that.
His WAR values, according to baseballprojection.com, from 1991 to 1999 are: 4.2, 3.8, 3.7, 4.8, 6.6, 5.1, 9.6 (!), 6.6, 5.2. That’s a pretty nice peak I think. Five in a row of 5+ WAR, and close to six with that 4.8 year. 65.9 WAR. For comparison Ozzie has 64.7. Trammell has 66.8, Jimmy has 66.6. Obviously the years and peaks and skill are all different, but I would have no problem with any of those four in the Hall.
But I think Biggio will be a dream for the voters, because of all the great things they can write about his career. The position switches! The grittiness! The year he never grounded into a double play! The hit-by-pitches! Etc. Also, I don’t mind some credit given to longevity. I think the emphasis on peak in the stat-world is a good thing, but it’s not like being durable is a bad thing. As long as you maintain an appropriate balance in your analysis and don’t blindly follow counting stats of course.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
He was a full time catcher for a fifth of his career
and then played most of the rest of it at 2B. He certainly holds up quite well agianst most of the other HOFers at those positions.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
above all, Bert Blyleven
Why this guy isn’t in HOF is a crime.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
Isn't that the truth.
Great pitcher, period.
by MinnesotaCardinal on Aug 7, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Jeter wouldn't pass for me
if he had played on any other team than the Yankees I doubt he would be considered by most as a sure HOF and to me he is about as questionable as Jimmy is.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Jeter wouldn't pass for you? Really?
A guy who has >200 HR, 300 steals, >400 doubles, >1500 runs scored, >2600 hits, a lifetime .316 BA, 3 time gold glover, 4 rings, and played 15 years at shortstop? Doesn’t do it for you?
I’m not a big Yankee fan either, but Jeter’s a lock.
by MinnesotaCardinal on Aug 7, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
will get to
thats the point, right now he doesn’t have the stats for me, he has 15 seasons played so similar to Jimmy’s, he has 200 HRs, so nowhere near the marks that people usually associate with it and he is still below 3000 hits, so as of today he is not a sure fire HOF, if he continues sure.
Black Ink Batting – 6 (346), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting – 123 (152), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting – 245 (24), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting – 56 (40), Average HOFer ≈ 50
Even BR’s standards are shacky. He meets the standards and monitor but not the Gray and Black ink. He is not as cut and dry as people think. Also his GGs are largely because he played for the Yanks.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Are you talking about his merits in your opinion, or the likely opinions of the BBWAA?
I think there’s no chance he doesn’t make it in. I also don’t think he’d be a bad vote either. I feel guilty for relying on things like WAR so much, but I think he’ll have a good argument for a HOF career by the time he’s done.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Sniff test as defined above:
What’s the sniff test you ask? I define it as saying a player’s name and making a snap judgement about whether he’s a Hall of Famer, like this:
I made my own snap judgement
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I see
I have to say, you might be on to something if the “overrated” idea gets enough traction. But I still think the voters will put him in fairly easily. I.E., I think he’ll pass the sniff test of lots and lots of sports writers. But who knows.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Probably will
Just will be one of the ones I question
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
The man deserves to be in the hall if for no other reason than
the unbelievable girlfirends he has accumulated over the years.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
While that was the point of my post...
think about in this context:
If you’re discussing likely HOF SS with a group of buddies over a beer, and you someone brings up Jeter and you disagree, don’t you likely have to have a very good reason to disagree with them? If someone says David Eckstein, 90% of the group would disagree and probably call that guy an idiot or some other similar word. But simply having to defend that Jeter isn’t a HOF pretty much ensures that he passes the “sniff test” of HOF voters. Again, it’s not fair, but yet that’s how HOF votes go, they’re subjective and anything but fair really.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It wouldn't surprise me if Jeter is the first unanimous selection
just becasue he is Jeter
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I think he'd be a surefire HOFer even if he retired this year
He’ll end this year with >2700 hits and >300 steals. With all his other numbers, plus the gold gloves (and whether he got them because he played for the Yankees like StLHugo said or not, they’re still going to count with voters), silver sluggers, WS rings, the 1996 RoY, a bunch of MVP top 10 votes, and almost a full season of postseason games with a .846 OPS, even if he retired this year I’d be surprised if he weren’t a first ballot HOFer in 2014.
by BTown Birds fan on Aug 7, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Other side of that....
The Yankee spotlight has caused a lot of people to wither, like Knoblauch, Pavano, and even Randy Johnson have been awful in the Big Apple. Heck, even the guy this entry is actually about is a good example. Edgar went from the fairly insulated media market of St. Louis to the intensely high pressure atmosphere in Boston and was pretty awful.
So yeah, Jeter’s the type of guy who has benefitted when it comes to his all-star selections and probably his gold gloves, but he’s put up tremendous numbers at a premium position and has been just as good during the postseason.
Furthermore, just like some of the conversations here have dealt with Edmonds’ highlight reel catches and how that might help his HoF bid, Jeter has an equally impressive highlight list (which, I’ll agree is bizarre, since all the metrics show him to be a below average defensive shortstop).
So between the moments of greatness, the fact that he’ll eclipse the 3k hit mark probably sometime during the 2011 season (which will still only be his age 37 season), his success in the biggest of markets, and the fact that he’s just been crazy consistent, Jeter is a total lock.
RJ's back was falling apart in NY
…And Pavano didn’t have a functioning throwing arm. It’s pretty unfair to say they withered when their bodies didn’t work.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 7, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll grant you Pavano
But RJ was snapping at people before he ever threw a pitch and has been able to salvage a few years of life from his aging body since he left NY. I’d say Randy Johnson is a perfect example of the type of guy who just doesn’t handle the NY scrutiny very well.
I hear what you're saying about him playing for the Yanks though
But like the two above me, I disagree
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 7, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
He did say snap judgement
when I hear Jeter I don’t hear “Hall of Fame SS” like I do with Ripken or Ozzie. With Jeter I keep hearing “overrated” or “good but not great” and that may be a tainted judgment but to me he just doesn’t have it yet.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Jeter has a career OBP of almost .400
He’s going to get to 3000 hits. He was the key cog in the Yankees late 90s dynasty. He’s in for sure.
Sometimes I think that we’ve gotten to a point where we’re so quick to point out that Jeter is overrated, that we might have started underrating him (if that makes any sense). Think of it like a pendulum. Before advanced defensive and offensive metrics came out, Jeter was a golden god. Pendulum all the way to the right. Then, we started realizing he isn’t as slick on defense as his __ gold gloves suggest, so the pendulum has swung pretty far left. It’s probably somewhere in between (all things considered).
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 8, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
^ Laughable
Comparing Edmonds qualifications to Jeter’s
by olddomination on Aug 7, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Why, just out of curiosity?
I mean, they both played premium defensive positions and have a darn good offensive track record and (so far) similar playing time.
Do you mean their actual qualifications or their likelihood of getting the votes?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Merely comparing the historical pool of talent at the positions
Jeter isn’t a great defensive player, but he holds his own. In terms of consistency across the board, he is pretty much unparalled.
Jeter, through his career was always one of the top shortstops in baseball, and continues to be. Edmonds only had a small (4-5 years) stretch where he could be considered one of the best all around outfielders.
Other than his defense, nothing about Edmonds screams “hall of fame” to me.
by olddomination on Aug 7, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
how is it laughable?
both have GG’s at premium positions both have similar OPS’s (Edmonds are higher), both have played around 15 years (15 for Jeter 16 for Edmonds). If Jeter retired after next year i see them as very similar.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
OPS of outfielder vs shortstop
Let’s not forget Edmonds spike in stats after joining McGwire and the Cards
by olddomination on Aug 7, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's not forget the parade of postseason highlights
Fresh in the minds of the voters when it comes to Jeter
Edmonds biggest post-season moment (walkoff vs Astros) was bumped to FX while the majority of the country watched the thrilling extra inning Sox-Yankees Game 5. Other than that, you have a few big opening round games for Edmonds, but not much else.
by olddomination on Aug 7, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoa, there.
Edmonds was a hell of a hitter with the Angels too.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Look, I really like Edmonds and think Jeter is overrated, but....
Jeter’s counting stats will be off-the-charts better than Edmonds’ by the end of their careers.
Hits: Jeter leads 2,671 to 1,881
HRs: Edmonds leads 382 to 217
SBs: Jeter — 294 to 65
RBI: Edmonds — 1176 to 1047
Runs: Jeter — 1537 to 1207
The thing you have to keep in mind is: What is each player’s game? What makes them valuable?
For Edmonds it was a combination of his glove in center field and his power numbers. His glove was arguably the best in the game during his prime years (with A. Jones being the other person you could argue), and his power numbers were very good. He had a five-year run of dominance from 2000-04 which is pretty significant and could get him some chance of garnering some votes. However, his power numbers for his career don’t stack up as being “great,” especially when you consider he piled them up during the steroids era. His 382 home runs ties him for 56th all-time. He’s far lower on the RBI list all time, coming in at T-146th.
Jeter’s game is being a high-average hitter who will get on base in front of the bigger bats. He exhibits enough speed and enough power that he can take a mistake pitch out of the yard or steal a base to get into scoring position. His main stat he’ll be known for is hits. In Hits, he’s currently 64th, which seemingly would compare to Jimmy’s 56th place finish in HRs, but remember, Jeter is still an active player, and is actually looking at a group of bunched up players that he’ll likely pass either this or next season. So long as he doesn’t have some crazy decline in the next few years or have a catastrophic injury, he’ll probably get to 3,000 hits somewhere in the mid to late 2011 season, when he’ll be 37. Getting to 3,000 is still a respected number, as steroids haven’t really tainted that like it has the HR numbers, as EVERYONE that has gotten 3,000 and is eligible for the HoF is in the HoF. It would also put him at 27th place on the hits list to make it to 3k hits, and assuming he continues to play, it’s entirely reasonable that he could collect at least 3,200 hits in his career. This would place him 14th overall and ahead of fellow SS great Cal Ripken, Jr.
So Edmonds is known for power and is outside of the top 50 in the traditional power categories and outside some bizarre comeback, won’t be adding to his numbers. Jeter is known for hits in general, and will likely rank in the top 25 and possibly even top 15 when all is said and done for his particular talent.
You can make the case that Edmonds was the best center fielder in the game for a few years, and that’s his main selling point for making it into the hall of fame, but considering A-Rod’s and Tejada’s steroid use, I think it’s pretty easy to say that over the course of his overall career, Derek Jeter has been the best shortstop in baseball.
No way he passes smell test
Five years afeter he retires many people won’t remember him. He’ll be like Dale Murphy is to me now. I vaguely recollect he was very good for a while.
Having said that, what cap would Renteria wear going into the HOF? Marlins? Birds? If it were me, I’d wear a Red Sox cap and make themn honor me at Fenway every time they had a Hall of Fame game.
Just win
Agreed
Speaking of Dale Murphy, when I think Dale Murphy, I put him in the same category as Jim Edmonds. That can’t be too good for Jimmy’s HOF chances…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ugh
That’s what annoys me about the smell test. It relies too much on perception, and not enough on reality. The latter says that Edmonds was quite a bit better than Murphy.
I was watching an Astros game once...
and the announcer stated that while Bagwell was obviously a lock for the HOF, Frank Thomas didn’t quite make it in his book. Of course the two players had amazingly similar careers… essentially identical in the context of baseball statistics.
I think the baseball writers want to wallow in their flawed perceptions. It makes them feel as if they have a unique perspective, whereas any monkey can crunch the numbers.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
I don't really agree with what I'm about to say, but here goes
It’s called the Hall of Fame. It’s not the Hall of Great Numbers. Part of Fame is the impact and reputation a player had while playing, which does come down to subjectivity to a certain extent.
/back_to_my_precious_numbers
by brackenthebox on Aug 7, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Smell Test
Smell test is basically, did you feel like this was a Hall of Fame caliber player when you were watching him —did he have some special quality. It doesn’t preclude someone making an arguement for a player on statistics. Jeter, passes the smell test in so many ways. He’s been such a big leader for the Yanks. Renteria doesn’t even give off a faint scent. He fades from memory. The numbers say he might get there, but at the end of day you shouldn’t get in becasue you played a long time, you should be special.
Rice ultimately made it because a lot of players who played with him put out the word that this guy was special in his prime even if the stats were a bit weak.
Just win
Really?
According to Sean Smith’s WAR database, Murphy had 6 seasons where he was worth more than 5 WAR, Edmonds had 7.
Total Career WAR:
Edmonds: 66.6
Murphy: 44.4
Murphy’s career really hit a landslide after his age 31 season.
Career OPS+:
Edmonds 132
Murphy 121
They really aren’t that different a player, and both were very, very good in their prime years. Considering that they were both sluggers who played good defense in center field, you can see why they could get lumped together.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yeah, really.
Edmonds put up 66.6 WAR; Murphy, 44.4. You said it yourself! Murphy was a full-time center fielder for what…5 years?
Murphy’s career really hit a landslide after his age 31 season.
Edmonds’ didn’t. I stand by my claim that he was quite a bit better than Murphy. Better hitter. Better defender. Better wearer of half-shirts.
Less folksy southern charm, though.
No amount of midwestern niceness could trump that.
Shut up, Fritz™.
LOL
“Murphy and Edmonds are nearly equal. As evidence of this, I will cite their career WAR, which are miles apart.”
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
"i’d challenge you to offer me alternatives which would convey the same level of meaning without being even more wordy and verbose."
One thing that is forgotten about Edgar's HOF chances
is that GW hit for the marlins in 1994. That’s the type of thing that sportswriters LOVE.
Of course, he was bad for the Red Sox, so therefore he is a horrible player that doesn’t live up to pressure.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
*Ahem*
1997
/douchebag
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 7, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
winning a WS game during the strike year would have been even MORE impressive
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Amaury Marti did it
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 8, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
As far as Edgar's defense
yes, it has gotten worse but he’s also not the worst in the league. Miguel Tejada still has a job. Jason Bartlett is the starting SS for a contender. Hell, some team just TRADED FOR Orlando Cabrera, the worst SS defensively in MLB. Edgar has been more valuable defensively than Yuniel Escobar this season, if you’d believe that.
He’s got another year on his Giants contract. He needs to start hitting again. Last season his offense was in the toilet until August and September, when he caught fire again in which he racked up 43 hits and batted .300.
I make no bones about it. If he doesn’t get to these counting stats, he isn’t getting in. The fun thing is that if he DOES get to those numbers, we can jump up and down and hold our breath because he will have reached the ‘benchmarks’ needed to get in and didn’t.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 7, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
Really - I didn't know Cabrera was that bad
I should really find some website I can check occasionally to see who is good/bad defensively.
eh
bartlett is a good defender…-2.0 UZR this year, but every other season, he has been a pluss UZR at short…he’s not great, but he is certainly better than renteria
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
wow, edgar's UZR aren't terrible, they are all in the red, but this year he is at -2.3
not as bad as i thought they would be
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
If he does
does it hurt his chances? Being an exclusive SS makes his numbers look better. Being a 3B, they start to look more average BUT it could prolong his career.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 8, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Rios claimed on waivers
Does this mean the Jays can just let him go or does that mean the team can now try to make a trade but doesn’t ahve to take him?
Just win
It's his first time through right?
The first time a player passes waivers it’s “revocable”, meaning the team can try to work out a trade with the claiming team or revoke the waiver on the player and keep him. If that player is placed on waivers a second time, however, those are “irrevocable”, and that player’s rights are then assigned to the claiming team.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
But they don't have to pull him back
right? They can just let him go and wave goodbye to the payroll?
Just win

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