Carpenter With Long Rest

by stlfan on Aug 30, 2009 1:46 PM EDT Comment 4 comments

Somebody posed the question of how Chris Carpenter does after 5+ days off a long time ago on a game thread. I had time this morning, so I looked it up thought this was worthy of a fan post...so here goes:

This does not including games coming off of the DL or opening day games because I believe it would throw off the numbers a bit since those are closely monitored pitch count type games, usually.

2009

5 days rest

June 20 - STL @ KC - 7 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 6 K, 2 BB (105 pitches)

August 7 - STL @ PIT - 8 IP, 9 hits, 4 ER, 4 K, 1 BB (111 pitches)

6 days rest

July 17 - ARIZ @ STL - 8 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB (103 pitches)

2008

5 days rest

August 5 - LA @ STL - 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB (51 pitches)

2006

5 days rest

April 14 - CIN @ STL - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB (114 pitches)

July 4 - STL @ ATL - 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB (74 pitches)

July 25 - STL @ COL - 7 1/3 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 4 K, 3 BB (112 pitches)

August 15 - CIN @ STL - 9 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB (107 pitches)

August 26 - CHC @ STL - 8 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB (100 pitches)

September 1 - PIT @ STL - 9 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (102 pitches)

6 days rest

June 13 - STL @ PIT - 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 13 K, 3 BB (111 pitches)

2005

5 days rest

April 16 - STL @ MIL - 6 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB (101 pitches)

April 27 - MIL @ STL - 7 2/3 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 12 K, 0 BB (118 pitches)

May 18 - STL @ PHI - 6 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 7 K, 4 BB (99 pitches)

May 29 - WASH @ STL - 7 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (108 pitches)

June 14 - STL @ TOR - 9 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 BB (95 pitches)

June 20 - STL @ CIN - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB (109 pitches)

July 1 - COL @ STL - 7 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 2 BB (112 pitches)

July 28 - STL @ SD - 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB (109 pitches)

August 13 - STL @ CHC - 9 IP, 8 hits, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (109 pitches)

August 19 - SF @ STL - 8 IP, 9 hits, 4 R (3 ER), 5 K, 0 BB (94 pitches)

10 days rest (first game after All-Star Break)

July 17 - HOU @ STL - 9 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 0 BB (97 pitches)

2004

5 days rest

April 29 - PHI @ STL - 7 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 7 K, 3 BB (89 pitches)

May 15 - FLA @ STL - 7 1/3 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB (92 pitches)

May 21 - STL @ CHC - 6 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 4 K, 0 BB (88 pitches)

June 18 - CIN @ STL - 7 1/3 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB (103 pitches)

June 24 - CHC @ STL - 8 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB (120 pitches)

July 5 - CIN @ STL - 7 1/3 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (100 pitches)

July 11 - CHC @ STL - 3 2/3 IP, 9 hits, 6 ER, 6 K, 2 BB (72 pitches)

July 30 - STL @ SF - 6 2/3 IP, 7 hits, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB (86 pitches)

August 5 - MON (WASH) @ STL - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB (108 pitches)

August 26 - STL @ CIN - 8 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB (122 pitches)

September 1 - SD @ STL - 7 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB (104 pitches)

September 12 - STL @ LA - 5 IP, 8 hits, 6 R (5 ER), 6 K, 1 BB (109 pitches)

September 18 - ARIZ @ STL - 3 1/3 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB (47 pitches)

---(got injured for remainder of year/playoffs in previous game)---

6 days rest

May 28 - STL @ HOU - 8 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4 K, 3 BB (115 pitches)

7 days rest

July 19 - STL @ CHC - 8 IP, 12 hits, 4 ER, 5 K, 0 BB (97 pitches)

8 days rest

April 23 - STL @ MIL - 6 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB (85 pitches)

9 days rest

August 20 - PIT @ STL - 7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB (108 pitches)

Here are the averages for the following amounts of days rest between starts:

Days Rest Between Starts	Total Games Pitched	IP/G	H/G	ER/G	K/G	BB/G
Totals as a Cardinal	120	6.82	5.95	2.23	5.62	1.35
5	32	7.11	5.31	1.91	7.94	1.19
6+	7	7.57	5.57	1.00	7.43	1.57

Based on this data, I would conclude that Carpenter is significantly better than normal (a third of an IP more per game, more than half a hit less, more than a quarter of an earned run less, and over 1.5X the K:BB) with 5 days rest, however the effects do not always carry over when pitching on more than 5 days rest.

0 recs | Comment 4 comments

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Comments

I like the analysis, but

I wonder if this is an exercise in futility. Carpenter’s time the last few years has been pock-marked with injuries and other disruptions. That lack of consistency maybe makes your numbers unreliable.

Perhaps a better rule of thumb for TLR in the Cardinals is to just find a chance to keep his pitch count under control. If he goes 6 innings but throws 100 pitches, take him out. The games almost don’t matter now. The REALLY important match will be in about a month, when Carpenter starts Game 1 against someone like Billingsly or Lincecum. THAT is when we want him going nine innings.

by JWO on Aug 31, 2009 8:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it's an interesting analysis but your conclusion is totally wrong

earned runs isn’t a predictive or even particularly expository statistic. Neither is hits, particularly when the difference between 5.31 hits per game in 32 starts and 5.57 hits per game in 7 starts is LITERALLY, like, 2 squibbers or dying quails that fall just a few inches away from a second baseman’s glove. It’s an absolutely meaningless difference.

The only meaningful figures here are the K and BB rates (and the innings pitched rates).

Carp has a 6.67 K/BB rate (which is utterly elite, Cy-Young standard) on 5 days rest, and a 4.73 K/BB ratio (which is merely excellent) on 6+ days rest.

Ergo, your data suggests (over a very small, fragmented sample size) that Carpenter pitches WORSE on long rest.

Still, nice post.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Incidentally, if you wished to improve it

you’d be better off calculating the FIP in the two cases, and trying to roughly translate that to runs saved/created over the IP. If, it turns out, he’s giving up CONSIDERABLY fewer HR in the long rest starts, you could potentially show that he’s been more productive, in DIPS terms, with longer rest, but still, in just 7 games, it likely isn’t actually very significant.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs