Right handed relief
by chuckb on Aug 30, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintAs I’ve mentioned several times, I’m not at all comfortable w/ our right-handed relief. Franklin’s been stellar in the closer’s role and I doubt that there’s been a lefty in the game better than Trever Miller, but our righties leave something to be desired. I was hoping that John Smoltz could come in and fill that role but he’s been too good in the rotation, particularly in light of the injuries to and ineffectiveness of Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer, so we still have that hole in the pen. Now some will argue that we don’t need a 4th starter in the postseason so Smoltz can immediately fill that role once we get there. I’m not sure I agree with that. We may or may not need a 4th starter in round 1, depending on off days and how quickly we’re able to dispose of our opponent, but we’ll need a 4th starter in the NLCS and World Series. There’s no way that La Russa’s going to let Carp make 3 starts in either series. That means that our 4th starter pitches game 4 in both series. That said, it still might make sense for Smoltz to be moved to the pen and have Lohse make those game 4 starts. Normally, of course, you’d have your 4th best starter – and right now that’s Smoltz – make the start in game 4 and have Lohse pitch out of the pen. But the drop-off from Smoltz to Lohse in the rotation may be much smaller than the drop-off from Smoltz to Motte or McClellan in the pen. Moreover, if we save Smoltz for those game 4 starts, we’re basically limiting him to 6 innings or so per series. If we move him to the pen, perhaps we could use him for 1-2 innings in every game – or in 3 out of 4 or so – b/c of off days. I think it’s possible that we could get more innings out of Smoltz out of the pen, in the postseason, than we could from the rotation.
The reason moving Smoltz to the pen in the postseason must be considered is b/c I have no faith whatsoever in our righties in the pen, Franklin excluded. Some will point to KMac’s 3.21 ERA and tell us how good he’s been this year. Unfortunately, his FIP is just 4.44 – just 61st among NL relievers. He still gets a good number of ground balls but he’s walking more than 5 batters per 9 innings. He’s benefiting from a lot of good luck as his BABIP is just .272, despite a 19.1% LD rate. His BABIP should be about 40 points higher than it is. His HR/FB is just 7.5% which is 2% less than it was last year and lower than league average. His WPA is 0.27 – 35th among NL relievers – and he’s 0.5 runs below replacement this year according to fangraphs – 60th in the NL among relievers. His WXRL is 1.019 – 43rd in the NL among relievers. And he’s our setup man.
I think we’ve probably all come to the realization that Jason Motte isn’t the solution, at least not this year. His 5.64 FIP is 2nd to last among NL relievers, ahead only of Phils’ closer (?) Brad Lidge. He’s actually been better in higher leverage situations than in lower leverage situations this year as his WPA is just minus 0.11. It’s not great but it’s 51st in the NL, as opposed to his 75th ranked FIP. Most notably, he’s more than 7 runs below replacement level this season, according to fangraphs. BP has him slightly above replacement level, w/ a WXRL of 0.644, but that’s still 58th among NL relievers.
I’d like to see more of Blake Hawksworth, though I’m not sure I’m ready for him to take over the 8th inning. Some will point to his .258 BABIP and say that he’s benefiting from a lot of good luck as well but his LD rate is just 14.9%. Maybe that’s a result of a relatively small sample – he’s faced just 113 batters this year – but a .258 BABIP isn’t that far out of line when batters aren’t squaring up his pitches. He doesn’t strike anyone out – just 3.49 K/9 – but he’s getting a ton of ground balls. His FIP is 3.76, his WPA is 0.69, and he’s 1.5 RAR. All those numbers are better than both KMac and Motte. His WXRL is 0.706 which is just slightly below KMac’s, despite facing fewer than half as many hitters as KMac has. Still, I don’t see him getting the ball in the 8th in the playoffs in a tie game.
At this point the likelihood of us adding a reliever is next to none. It won’t be Justin Speier and we’re not going to call up Eduardo Sanchez. I really don’t trust Josh Kinney. He hasn’t pitched well w/ the big club and he’s only been OK w/ Memphis, though he’s pitched pretty well of late. At least Kinney can get a K and has only given up 4 walks in his last 12 innings. If he throws strikes he’s pretty good. Anyone trust Wellemeyer in relief? Me neither.
All in all, assuming he’s healthy, I think my preference is to move Smoltz to the pen in a couple weeks and move Lohse into the rotation to have Lohse take that game 4 start. Hell, if we only use Smoltz for an inning or 2 in games 1-3, we could use Lohse for 3-4 innings, or as long as we trust him, and then have Smoltz take 3-4. To me though, I’d like to have the ability to use Smoltz more than once. We can’t depend on Carp, Wainer, and Pineiro to get 8 innings per start. If we have Smoltz in the pen, we can pinch hit for one of the starters if we need to. We’ll be facing tougher starters in the playoffs and may need to pinch hit in the 6th or 7th if we’re down 2-1. Would you rather bring in Motte, McClellan, Hawksworth, or Smoltz? Considering the leverage, the versatility of having him available in more than 1 game, and the possibility that he could pitch more than 6 innings from the pen, I’d rather have Smoltz coming out of the pen in the playoffs, even if he’s pitching exceptionally well, than having him take those 4th starts.
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Well Said
I feel the same way that you do. As good as Smoltz has been in the rotation he still will be more valuable in the pen. It is quite funny how the post season affects value. During the regular season a starter is always more valuable than a reliever. But as soon the post season starts a #4 starter has less value than a high leverage reliever.
P.S
Don’t run multiple anti-virus programs at the same time. They conflict with each other.
Will Smoltz be able to pitch on consecutive days?
or will he be like Russ Springer and need a day of rest between outings? This is the key as to whether Smoltz is used as a starter or a reliever in the post-season. If he needs a day to recover, he may as well start. If not, move him to the pen as Franklin’s set-up man.
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This was my question, as well.
Smoltz is 42 years old, and will likely not be able to bounce back from a relief appearance like a younger pitcher can. I don’t see being able to use him in every game of a playoff, even though there are typically more off-days during the post-season.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Aug 30, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Lotta off days in the postseason
he may not need to.
There’s always a break between games 2 and 3, and 5 and 6 and then there are some other random off days as well. That first round series is just strange the way there’s sometimes a break between games 1 and 2.
and buy a hardware router
you can get a minimal one for $50 that will cut down on the amount of horseshit you have to deal with quite a bit. Routers are pretty much idiot-proof….if you’re computer literate enough to deal with anti-virus/anti-spyware programs, you can handle the five minutes it takes to get your router set up….
A router is not going
to keep you from picking up spyware, trojans, viruses, and worms if you do a lot of wandering on the net. I make a maintance folder and put it on my desktop. Download free maintance programs and run maintance at least once a week.
I recommend Avast antivirus, Zone Alarm firewall, Spybot, Adaware SE. Super Antispyware Free, Ccleaner and SpywareBlaster; all are free. If you have Norton, go to safe mode and uninstall it; the
free programs are better.
I haven't used any antivirus/spyware program in a long time
I also did a hosts file hack, that seems to help a lot too. And using Firefox, keeping the XP firewall turned on, etc.
The hosts file helps a lot.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
It's immeasurable, really.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Boggs?
I wonder what Boggs could do coming out of the pen. Might be a bust, but it would be worth giving him a couple of relief appearances in September to see if he can make that transition.
Is he going to be on the roster?
taking PK’s place?
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You are forgetting his worst trait.
He’s a rookie in Tony’s eyes.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 30, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
How's he going to use Hawksworth then?
Besides, why would we want Boggs in the pen? He walks way too many batters.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 30, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
If I remember correctly.....
He had trouble “getting warm” out of the pen.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 30, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm on board with this as well,
except that I’d let Smoltz start as many games as he can during the regular season to get his strength and pitches back, then reap the benefits in the playoffs out of the bullpen.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Aug 30, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions
Chuck, when you say
The reason moving Smoltz to the pen in the postseason must be considered is b/c I have no faith whatsoever in our righties in the pen, Franklin excluded.
Something like that, it completely invalidates your post, because as we all know, Franklin sucks. ;)
Good post, and in principle I agree, but if you look to do a ‘split start’, as you seem to indicate by having Lohse go 3-4 innings and then Smoltz go 3-4, then like you said Smoltz is lost for the following day. I like what I’ve seen from Hawksworth, but how a rookie responds to a high leverage role in the post season can be a lot different than the regular season. K-Rod and Wainwright seem to be exceptions to the rule.
But Hawk has been getting it done, and at this point, I’m a lot more comfortable seeing him come out to the mound than I am Motte, and to a lesser extent McClellan.
Brett Favre is a Viking, and John Smoltz is a Cardinal. The Cubs and Packers still suck. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Why do we need a 4th starter in the postseason?
I bet with all the offdays, we could just run out Carp, Wainwright and Pineiro. At this point, I’d even wonder if Wainwright or Carpenter on short rest isn’t better than Lohse/Smoltz/whomever for a start.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
but then
we’re also looking at using both Carp and Wainer on short rest since everyone’s pushed up a day. And even if Carp on short rest is better than Lohse, Wainer on short rest isn’t better than Carp on regular rest. And Lohse would be facing the other team’s 4th starter as well so, in all likelihood, we wouldn’t need him to pitch as well. Moving 1 starter up changes the dynamic for the rest of the series, not just that 1 game.
short rest starters
always makes me nervous….I’d much rather have a 4-man rotation for the playoffs than try to run guys out there on short rest….
Schedule for NL playoffs
Bud likes certainty as does TV.
NLDS is the same for both series
Oct 7, 8, 10, 11, 13
- #1 gets 7th and 11th on short rest.
- #2 starter takes 8th & 13th on normal rest
- #3 gets the 10th
NLCS tentative schedule
Oct 15, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 24
- depends on how the NLDS ends
- #1 could go 15th, short rest 19th, full rest 24th
- #2 16th, normal rest 21st
- #3 18th, normal rest 23rd
World Series doesn’t start until 10/28
Oct 28, 29, 31, Nov 1, 2, 4, 5
- #1 goes 28th, Nov 2 on normal rest and bullpen Nov 5
- #2 goes 29th, Nov 4 on long rest
- #3 goes 31st, Nov 5 on long rest
- #4 goes Nov 1st
So with this schedule, the #1 starter gets two starts on short rest. Weather (and earthquakes) can screw up the plan royally. Tony could also alternate who is the #1 starter by series between Carp and Waino. Bottom line – send Smoltzie to the pen.
I don't understand how you can say
the #1 starter will start game 1 on short rest. Aren’t you assuming they stick with the rotation the rest of the season? Why wouldn’t they adjust it to line things up for the playoffs especially since they’ve got such a big lead?
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
*pencils in 'earthquakes'*
New Madrid, baby.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
a foolish idea, but still intriguing to me...
if Smoltz gets four or so more starts and does what he’s been doing, what about keeping Smoltz in the rotation and putting Piniero in the ’pen?
that said, i wouldn’t do that. just a thought, but Pineiro consistently goes deep into games while keeping us in them…
by longhornscardinals on Aug 30, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
I'd much rather have Smoltz in the pen
First of all, Piniero deserves to start in the playoffs. He’s been stellar this year. But outside of that, I don’t want a guy coming in to high leverage situations who can’t strike out hitters. Smoltz can strike out anyone, especially in a 1 inning role. Piniero can’t.
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
But
what about needing someone to come in and get that DP ground ball?
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 30, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure Smoltz can do that too.
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
Of hand I would think that
Smoltz would be stellar coming out of the pen….but then he is now 42 and has had a long layoff. Can he now do what he did four years ago when he was lights out in relief.
a thousand times no.
This year joel pineiro would be the ace on a lot of teams.you don’t put ace caliber pitching in the bullpen, even in the postseason.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 30, 2009 2:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But what if Smoltz keeps pitching like an ace?
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
by Cardinals645 on Aug 30, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
6 good starts from smoltz is never gonna be as good as 30 from pineiro.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I think Pineiro works better as the 4th starter, than in the bullpen.
But given the lack of bullpen depth, I think we almost have to move Smoltz there unless we can find someone else.
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
by Cardinals645 on Aug 30, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Smoltz wants to start
If I was a betting man I would say that Smoltz and LaDunc had an understanding . If he signs he starts. The whole talk of “what’s best for the team” does not trump ego and does not truly exist in pro sports. It’s just a cliche. Many times it would have been better for the team for Cal Ripken to sit out but he only did it when he was ready.
OK, I’ll say it. No way, with Tony’s love for veterans and past performances, does he not put Smoltz in the post season rotation. If Tony would keep running Jeff Fassero out there then he sure as hell will run Smoltz out there.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 30, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
Totally agree.
Somehow I just can’t imagine Tony NOT giving postseason starts to THE WINNINGEST POSTSEASON PITCHER OF ALL TIME. (Whether it happens to make sense or not.)
I wonder if
Lohse would accept going to the pen for the playoffs….he’s spent so much time on the DL this year, so he doesn’t have the 4 days’ rest rhythm going ATM….
Smoltz interview
after he signed, Smoltz talked about getting in two or three starts then doing whatever is needed for the team to go far in the postseason. He wanted to get some starts in so he could show teams he can play in 2010 but he also wants a ring and will do what is best for the team to win. I don’t see Smoltz causing any problems with a move to the pen.
I don't either.
That dude wants to win before anything and he will do whatever it takes.
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
"He’s actually been better in higher leverage situations than in lower leverage situations this year as his WPA is just minus 0.11."
interesting. I think Motte really does perform better when he’s amped up. Any attempt to dampen the crazy will just end in disaster.
That said, 2nd pitch can has?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'd bet
it has more to do w/ randomness and sample sizes than Motte “amping it up” in high leverage situations. But maybe I’m wrong.
if there were better shots of Motte
Someone could go back and chart when he talks to the ball vs. when he doesn’t.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
+1
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I was busy looking at his release point
So I didn’t see the movement at all.
It was all the flames and smoke.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
thank you
for referencing LD rate when mentioning BABIP. That’s all, really. :)
Yeah, downloading porn can be a real bitch!
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
by nomar34 on Aug 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Sample playoff rotation
I threw together a possible rotation for the playoffs. This assumes a lot, of course, but it gave me a chance to eyeball what might happen:
This unlikely layout gives Carpenter 6 starts, Wainwright 5, Piniero 5, and 4th starter guy 3. There are a lot of ways to skin this cat, of course.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Aug 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions
Watching Reds/Dodgers
Arroyo should be a Vegas dancer with that leg kick.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
I hate to be that guy...
but if you had a mac, you wouldn’t have any of those troubles Chuck. I made the switch about 4 years ago and haven’t looked back. I haven’t had to run an adware detector or virus scanner since.
by cloistermaximus on Aug 30, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions
I was reading in the game thread
where Motte was throwing some kind of a breaking ball. For those of you who saw it, what did it end up looking like? And how well did it move?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 30, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions
Last I saw him throw...
…I saw a kind of a cutter thing that came in about 86ish and sort of rolled sideways (that’s bad) and an honest-to-god curveball at about 80. The curve didn’t break much at all but he did get a GO with it. I think he’s sort of desperate to find something else to throw up there b/c I’ve read/heard at different times that he’s tried/trying a slider, cutter, and curve. Who knows what’s really going on, but based on body language my guess is he’s really fighting it out there.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 30, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
If only there was some sort of pitch
that could be thrown with an arm action very similar to a fastball but, say, with a different grip, that actually makes the ball come out of the hand and get to the batter several mph slower than a normal FB, which would make them swing early and high. And that would, say, be really useful for a guy who can routinely hit 97mph+ with his fastball to learn.
If ONLY.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 5:10 AM EDT up reply actions
watching on Gameday last night
whatever it was, it had a lot of downward break. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s throwing it in his next appearance. If he can just have a break-even secondary pitch to go with that fireball….
Hell, if he just threw the ol palm ball up there every once in a while,
it would be worth something to watch the batter come out of his shoes.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 30, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, downloading porn can be a real bitch!
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
by nomar34 on Aug 30, 2009 1:36 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Wow
Post fail, that is what I get for trying to be a funny guy…
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
by nomar34 on Aug 30, 2009 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I hear that
downloading porn can be a real bitch — messes up your posts, no pun intended!
by chuckb on Aug 30, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Touché
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
Skip hearts the Rose
he’s a leader. someone get that clip for use on cubs fans.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
We know...
(sob, sob, sob…)
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
it's just funny
I thought it was all hype, but then the stoic-as-a-rock rook breaks out into a big smile and says he’s a real character in the clubhouse. Colby doesn’t smile unless it’s about winning a baseball game. It was uncanny.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I don't suppose you'd give us back old man DeRo
in exchange for the multi-talented Milton Bradley, would you?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
but you have Aaron Miles
he’s gritty
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
But is grittiness in a mascot really that important??
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Aug 30, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
who's more banged up, Glaus or ARam?
honest question. I haven’t been following it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
.....I'm still asking about the banged up part.
I was given to understand Glaus wasn’t sitting on his ass in the minors.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
besides, I thought he was working on his bat-flip.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Well...
I was just assuming Glaus would have been on the roster already if he was healthy enough to play. Ramirez has 200+ ABs. I think I’m confused.
V, b.
hmm. well the original premise
was ARam for DeRo. So I was under the impression that 1. ARam is a perennial injury risk, and 2. so is Glaus. In fact I think I knew that when we acquired him in the first place.
But I have no other info that I can remember, so I’m wondering whose injury situation is more dire?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Glaus'
they were worried about him being able to throw across the diamond. If the guy’s healthy, I figure he’ll be able to hit just fine, it’s the throwing part that concerns me.
thanks
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is the second time that Ramy
has dislocated the same shoulder, and there is a lot of concern that it may need surgery and/or will be a chronic problem.
DeRo should be healthy next year assuming the wrist surgery is successful.
I was under the impression that Glaus had chronic foot problems, but I’m not sure about that.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Ramy has missed two months
and has missed some other games due to lingering soreness. He’s been the old Ramy when his shoulder isn’t sore.
If I’m not mistaken, Glaus hasn’t had an AB all year, has he? I thought that was why you guys got DeRo — or did you just get him to piss us off?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
yes
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What do you think the odds are
that you re-sign DeRo?
Or do you guys care if we get him back?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
it's too soon to say
There are a lot of other pieces to look at, a lot of contracts to examine. Injuries that could get worse, or better.
It’s going to be an interesting Hot Stove for us, no matter what happens.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What do you think your 2010 payroll will be?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
who knows
We’re fourth in the Majors in attendance, and could net even more. Actually that may be the only reason we could make any of these acquisitions.
Who knows. I’m inclined to wait until we’re there before thinking about who stays and who goes. As nota bene said, there are a lot of contracts up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
higher
DeWitt wanted to contract payroll this year, cause they thought attendance would be down w/ the bad economy. Turned out the opposite direction. Attendance went up this year.
TLR went to the FO and said, look, we’ve got Pujols having a ridiculous year even for him, Carpenter is healthy for the first time in three years, Pineiro has been possessed by the ghost of Christy Matthewson, Ryan Franklin has turned into a badass—we’ve absolutely got to be in win-now mode.
So the payroll will be presumably going up to accommodate Holliday, at least.
yes. it starts with Carpenter.
I don’t see half of these midseason moves without the assurance of both our aces.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
not just Carp being healthy
but pitching as well as he did in 04/05/06. (Or even better—he’s been hitting 96/97 recently, which is just not fair.)
Can you guys afford both Holliday and Ludwick
in the OF since you will have a cheap CF?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Colby's not cheap, he's a very nice boy.
I think the question is can we afford Holliday. /fixed.
Scott Boras.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
luddy is cost controlled for 2 more years
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Won't he cost $8M in arbitration this year?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
geez, I hope not.
that would more than double his current salary.
and if that were the case, they’d just sign him to a longer term deal.
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
so-so
We have a LOT of free agents to deal with soon. Holliday and Pineiro are coming up in the offseason too. Holliday has made it clear he wants to stick around (WHEEEEEEEEE—ahem, excuse me). It’d be nice to keep Pineiro too.
I think they’re going to try to offer arb to DeRo and see if they can get picks out of him or something.
well
it wasn’t just Glaus going down. Freese & Mather got hurt, Wallace (traded for Holliday) wasn’t ready (and apparently feeling in the FO was that Wallace should be a 1B/DH, not a 3B), and the early season platoon of Barden/Thurston just sucked. We had ridiculous depth at third and then suddenly nobody at all.
And if y’all weren’t steamed enough, DeRosa apparently helped us land Smoltz too….
oh yeah, that's right!
The Rose is our best recruiter.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Those two are best friends,
workout partners, and golf buddies. I’m not surprised at all that Smoltzie would follow DeRo.
I don’t think the Cubs had a serious interest in Smoltz anyway. Our biggest pitching weakness is LH RPs.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Ricketts needs to dynamite that damn bullpen
I think I’d take Marmol, but everybody else needs to go.
Are you talking about the Carlos Mármol
with a filthy, unhittable slider, or the Carlos Mármol who has know idea of how to throw a strike?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Marmol is still the only guy in that BP that I worry about
he’s prone to blowing up, but I never expect Kevin F. Gregg to ever slam the door….
to put it this way
With your luck, if you reacquired DeRosa, his wrist would proceed to blow out.
Oh look, DeRo is a late scratch today because of his wrist.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I thought it was keeping players on the field?
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
It's very fashionable for Lou to make excuses...
and this year’s excuse is “the injuries”. However, I don’t think we’ve have any more injuries than you guys have had.
We have had far more guys just suck than you have had.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Your best player has just over 200 ABs. That is not a recipe for success.
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
Your 3B/cleanup hitter has 0 ABs this season.
You’ve managed…
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
it's called a platoon
And I think the salient point was also that your worst players are getting many, many more than that.
Meanwhile:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/photos/pitching-to-contract/223714
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
In all honesty, I think the Cubs' biggest problem this year is Soriano
you’re trotting out a guy, night-after-night, who has been BELOW REPLACEMENT in left-field, and letting him hit leadoff when he’s hovered around a .300 OBP most of the year.
I guess the problem is it’s pretty hard to bench a guy who’s making that sort of money, but suffice to say Soriano has been a vacuum of fail this year.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I want to cry...
when I think about listening to Jay Randolph today. Maybe I’ll go with the Washington broadcast.
V, b.
Randolph + Shannon
>>>>>>>> Dan & Al.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions
so, Adam Wainwright.
It’s your birthday and your bobblehead day.
No pressure!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
OT: TLR quoted by
You don’t disrespect the baseball gods.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
I have to admit I'm torn
On the one hand, this team’s RH relief is nothing to get excited about. You have a long-reliever type who is being used as a set up guy (KMac), a fireballer with mediocre command and no second pitch (Motte), a recent callup who has pitched effectively but strikes out no one (Hawk), and of course you have the non-sinking sinker of Puppy Kicker. None of that is terribly exciting to me, and as such I think Smoltz could give the team a boost in the pen, perhaps by pitching the 7th and 8th of a close/ahead game and getting the ball to Franklin (who of course is terrible).
OTOH, the way Smoltz has pitched has been rather impressive. True, it has been only two starts and it’s been against the Nats and Padres, but his stuff has looked good and he looks really comfortable on the mound right now. To me, this indicates that he feels good about his pitches and given his track record if he feels good about his stuff, who are we to judge, right?
I guess the best route right now is to keep Smoltz in the rotation for the time being and hope the decision makes itself. Word on Roto St. is that Lohse may be used in the bullpen, and I’m not sure he’ll do awesome but one never knows, right?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 30, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions
The Nationals aren't a bad offensive team
They’re actually 6th in the NL in Runs scored (I know, I was shocked too. Just says all you need to know about their pitching, I suppose).
I don’t think Lohse or Pineiro in the bullpen works. The only guy moving to the bullpen that makes sense is Smoltz. But I’d would much prefer having him in the rotation, and if I was MoZ, I’d leave no stone unturned in trying to find an immediate non-25 man roster solution to the relief problem.
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
by Cardinals645 on Aug 30, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
BRAD F'ING PENNY.
that is all.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 5:17 AM EDT up reply actions
OT: Is there an article in the P-D today about
Duncan leaving at the end of the year? Why isn’t anyone talking about this? Is it because no one wants to imagine what will happen with Duncan gone? Or is it perhaps because it was written by some guy no one seems to like on this site?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Aug 30, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
because it was in two other threads
settle down, skipper.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it's one of several huge questions
To answer in the next month. Seeing if anything happens to the 25-man in the next couple days may tell us something.I’m (perhaps foolishly) hopeful lohse will feel better by the end of sept.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 30, 2009 2:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
okay, i'm almost done with a glossary update
What do I say for “tipping pitches”? I’m stuck on keeping that down to two or three lines.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
HI MATT. MOAR PIE?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
can we stop with the leg-kick already?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Solution?
I am sure I am missing something, but why wouldn’t the Cards have Wainer pitch the 1st, 4th, and 7th games? Then we have Carp for games 2 and 5, and Joel for games 3 and 6. What am I missing? Both Wainer and Carp are top 5 in the Cy Young so not a huge difference and I think Wainer has even been pitching better of late. Wainer is young and strong and can hold up making an extra start or two or three in the post-season (how many 7 game series do we expect?).
Agree and Disagree
I agree that in our present situation, Smoltz to the bullpen is nearly a must (even though I LOVE Smoltz and think we should consider him as potentially being our third best starter until he proves otherwise).
But I don’t think we should just settle for that. We should try and find someone else out there that can be that 8th inning guy.
Personally, I’m all for trying out Brad Penny in relief at the minimum salary. He throws hard, and the whole Red Sox to Red Birds thing has worked out pretty darn well so far. Maybe Penny doesn’t work out, but there is no sense in not looking for SOMEONE!
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
Penny would be best off as our 4th starter in the playoffs
I dunno if Lohse will do much on his return, so if I was Mo, I’d call up Penny, say “you’re in our rotation until the end of the year, you’re our 4th starter in the playoffs, and you’re pretty much guaranteed a post-season shot on a team that’s 10+ games up and playing great with a couple of weeks left”, and get the guy for the post-season. It’s also a good audition for next season. If he does OK, we might be able to get him for $5-8m next year on a one year deal (I wouldn’t even be aversed to offering 2yr/$12m or something) and we can let Pineiro walk.
Our playoff rotation is Carp, Waino, Pineiro and Penny, then Lohse is the long-reliever/guy who comes in if anyone gets bombed or injured for 3-4 innings, Hawk/KMac/Motte/Miller/Reyes can be used as situational relievers, Smoltz is the permanent set-up guy, and Franklin closes. Job done.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 1, 2009 5:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised you didn't address Boggs at all in the article
I think he might be a strength out of the ’pen
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 30, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions
Here.
Carp, Waino, Pineiro, and Smoltz can just throw CG 2 hitters with 90 pitches every time they go out there. Relief problem solved!
;P
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
play it by ear
Why not just wait and see what happens in the playoffs? If we win/lose games 1-3 of the NLDS in blowouts then there is no need to use Smoltz in the pen and he can start a potential game 4. If we have won games 1 & 2 and not used Smoltz and game 3 is close late, we can go for the kill and use him in the bullpen. IMO you probably do not want Smoltz to start against the Phillies because of their LH murderer’s row, so you use him out of the pen in the NLCS. This may not work because pitchers like to be conditioned and know what is coming or whatever, but in Smoltz case I think it would be fine. He has pitched out of the pen before and does not seem to have trouble adjusting. Of course if Lohse pitches once he comes back this is probably a moot point.
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