Yadier Molina Knows Squat [highlights]
An overview of ESPN the Magazine's feature on Yadier Molina. See also: video highlights!
I'm skipping the human interest stuff, like plaudits from Jorge Posada, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Royals 1B coach Rusty Kuntz, Albert, A.D.A.M., Jo-El, TLR, Dave Duncan, and Bengie. (Though the one from Bengie is great.) Or Yadi texting during the All Star Game, getting an autographed ball from Albert, or why the Molina hometown is also called el Pueblo de los Nangotaos.
But first... how the catchers used to be really, really gritty:
[Early catchers] went behind the plate without any equipment, not even a glove, shielded from bats and balls only by their own bravado. [...] They were judged by the number of games they could survive without sustaining a season-ending injury--a broken hand or jaw, a concussing blow to the head. Those who couldn't hack it gave up after a few innings; the best played a hundred games.
Yadi the punk rock catcher is built of the same stuff.
The Family Business
[Joel Piñeiro] calls the stocky Molina the most athletic catcher in the game. Growing up in Puerto Rico, Yadi was a skinny infielder until he was 16, when he started developing the trademark family physique. Both he and Bengie [...] are 5'11" and 230 pounds; Yankees backup Jose, who's 34, is three inches taller and five pounds heavier. "We have strong bones," Yadier says. "We are all big."
The game has never seen anything like the Molina brothers, and now Yadi seems poised to out-Molina everyone.
Managing the Pitcher's Game
And if a pitcher isn't hitting his spots, Molina will shift his body, not just his glove, so that the ball thumps neatly into the webbing, as near to the strike zone as possible, on every pitch. On a good day, he says, he can steal 10 or 12 strikes for his pitcher.
Molina has even been known to pitch [sic] to a hitter's strengths early in the game so, in an important late-game at-bat, he can expose his weaknesses. "Last year, I shook Yadi off only four times," says [...] Kyle Lohse. "And I gave up three hits."
Yadi to Second
A throw to second base in the MLB: less than 2 seconds
most catchers: 1.9's
some of the best: high 1.8's
Yadier is routinely clocked in the 1.7's by [Duncan], and occasionally in the 1.6's.
TLR requires his starters to have a delivery of 1.4 s or less.
42.1% runners caught stealing, 2nd to Ivan Rodiriguez
26 runners: attempted to steal this season
(71 runners: successful against Jason Varitek)
Yadi to First
Since 2004, he has caught 31 runners off first base, nearly twice as many as any other catcher during that time.
Most catchers will throw only when they have a clear line to first base, but Molina likes to tuck in behind a lefty and use him as a screen. "I'm sneaky," he says.
Most of them never see it coming. If Pujols is holding the runner, he'll flash a sign to throw, but if he's positioned behind the bag, it's up to Molina. "I have to be aware that he's going to throw every time, even though he could go the whole game without throwing," Pujols says.
Runners steal attempts for catchers with minimum 500 games, since 2005; leaders and last:
| Name | Games | SB | Attempts | % Caught |
| Yadier Molina | 550 | 126 | 216 | 41.7% |
| Joe Mauer | 520 | 166 | 248 | 33.1% |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 558 | 181 | 279 | 35.1% |
| Jason Kendall | 652 | 378 | 479 | 21.1% |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 598 | 387 | 457 | 15.3% |
| Victor Martinez | 500 | 327 | 413 | 20.8% |
Last but not least, the article says right out that Albert is Yadier's "de facto hitting coach." Ridiculous.
So this stuff is pretty awesomely ridiculous and anecdotal, but it backs up what the stats have trouble describing: how much Yadi controls the game. By his own admission, Duncan says he's mentally calling a more traditional game while Yadi constantly innovates. He and his brothers continue to network over their game. The pitchers pitch in their comfort zone because he anticipates the pitcher's strengths, and he can cover for some of their weaknesses. He's manipulating the hitters; he's manipulating the umpires.
And he's pretty much killing the running game.
I'm shocked the article doesn't mention his base stealing, though. Blazing speed!
7 recs |
42 comments
Comments
a little bit off topic...
… but what if Yadi’s prodigiousness at throwing stealers out actually hurts the team? bear with me, here…
as the table above shows, the league has learned to simply not run on Yadi. but statistical analysis has showed that unless your success rate is ~ 80%, the expected value of stealing is negative. so if Yadi were a little bit worse at throwing guys out — say he threw them about 33% of the time — they’d run a lot more, he’d throw more people out, and the team would get more easy outs.
in other words, “shutting down the running game” may be impressive on a personal level, but it probably hurts the team since “the running game” is almost always costly for the offensive team.
by kindred on Aug 3, 2009 11:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
quick question comes to mind
Does preventing the steal result in more double plays?
by nybirdfan on Aug 3, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the article insinuated
that the lack of lead at first and the resulting poor jump reduced the chance of runners breaking up double plays or taking extra bases on singles. But there was no data to back it up so I didn’t include that tidbit.
The KC coach said it keeps runners close by a whole step. “But sometimes players have to see it for themselves before they’ll believe it, and those are the guys he picks off.”
@kindred: Shutting down the running game, methinks, would prevent runs. It’s not Yadi’s job, strictly speaking, to create outs. (If Yadi’s job were to create outs, the limiting factor is that there’s another guy who has to apply a perfect tag to complete the pickoff. If he’s not named Albert Pujols, any number of possible snafus would make it too much risk for the reward. I’ve literally seen Yadi throw pickoff drills with the 2B between innings, only to have the 2B screw it up in the next play.) Getting out of an inning faster has less benefit if more runners are allowed in scoring position.*
I.e., it doesn’t matter if the runner doesn’t become an out — the endgame is that the runner doesn’t score in that frame. The power of the stat is what it does to the opponent’s game, not how individually awesome the catcher is. Yadi is literally intimidating runners out of scoring position.
- This also creates more stress on the pitcher, as I recently learned from Kurkjian’s 100 pitch limit article.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 4, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yadi's got a gun
To extend the metaphor, here’s how I understand it… (gun violence is bad. watch more Clint Eastwood.)
If you watch this quick-draw competition and some guy wins a gold medal in marksmanship, that doesn’t mean much. It’s numbers in a record book. That’s meaningless.
If you walk into a store, armed, and the guy with the gold medal says “Freeze,” the importance is not whether the guy shoots you through the heart or nicks your arm — it’s whether you freeze.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 4, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i think you missed me...
… i wasn’t talking about pickoffs at all. i was talking about throwing out 42% of attempted base-stealers. obviously that’s impressive, but the net result has been that he’s had the fewest attempts against him in the league. but he’s really good, so the Cards should want more SB attempts against him so that he can throw more guys out. see?
now, the extension of that is that at some margin it would actually be better for the team if Yadi was worse. in other words, Pudge gave up more SB over the same period, but also recorded many more outs because runners attempted more steals. since base-stealers have to be successful 80% of the time to have positive value for their teams, and Pudge threw out 35% of potential stealers, Pudge might actually have netted some positive value for his teams by being worse than Yadi at throwing guys out and therefore getting more attempts against him.
the thinking is that Yadi is a harsh deterrent. but with SB attempts, you don’t really want a deterrent. you want teams to try to run on you as long as you throw out at least 20% of potential stealers. almost every catcher throws out at 20%, so you should encourage more SB attempts against, which will then generate more outs and lower the probability of the other team scoring.
does that make sense?
there are a lot of applications from game theory here.
i’m not saying this to disparage Yadi at all, by the way. of course he should try to throw out as many people as he can. it’s just an interesting thought experiment.
by kindred on Aug 4, 2009 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might be wrong
but I think the conventional thought now is that anything much over about 75% is gravy, base-stealing wise.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not sure what you mean by "gravy"...
… but i was under the impression that you had to be successful at least 75-80% of the time just to break even. which is why having a “deterrent” catcher might actually be a bad thing: very few players have that high of a success rate, and you want all the ones who don’t to try to run on you. if you deter them from running, then you are giving up free outs.
by kindred on Aug 4, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I meant anything over 75% is a positive
and in some cases it might be less than that (I’m not sure if the studies take into account things like extra bases given up due to throwing errors by a catcher/pitcher, which seem quite common, or the occasional ball given away by the pitcher on a pitch-out, stuff like that, so I’m guessing the value of the running game is more likely under-valued than over-valued). So as long as you’re making 3 out of 4 it’s OK.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I agree with your overall point
see my comment about (I think it was) Jason Kendall in 2008 in a post below…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that's what I'm saying...
you keep the guy on first, he’s not in scoring position. an attempt to throw him out increases your risk that something will go wrong, i.e. the ball gets away and he makes extra bases. it is far less risky, imo, to let the pitcher get the outs, while the catcher prevents the runs. does that make sense?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 4, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the other thing is... SB attempts
If that data includes the “sterioid era”, you got older, bigger guys trying to steal bases. I somehow don’t think that’s gonna be very successful… is it possible the data is skewed by that change? Clean up the act, and running teams look more like the Rays — younger, faster, and more likely to be successful.
Our goal is to steal at least 80 percent of the time. We talked about that in Spring Training.
- Joe Maddon
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 4, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kinda agree kindred
I get the feeling that it’s really only his pickoffs that make a major impact (something like $2m of value/season).
I think it was Jason Kendall last year (?) off the top of my head, who ended up being the most damaging pitcher (in real terms) to a running game because EVERYBODY ran on him and he upped his previously terrible CS% up to average, thus he was a more “damaging” defensive catcher in that respect than Yadi.
My feeling is that, generally, teams run on the weaker catchers more and thus send their less-than-elite basestealers more, and they get thrown out more. Basically, the CS%s of each team (from catcher attempts) probably end up, by a kind of natural selection process, being roughly similar at the end of the day (weaker catchers get run on more but equally pick off some of the weaker runners, guys like Yadi never get run on, but on the rare occasions they do it’s a Jose Reyes or a Michael Bourn or someone), the only difference being that the weaker catchers get run on more, so they’ll have more CS and more SB against, but a roughly similar %.
However, the first base pickoffs really ARE valuable – at least half-a-dozen free outs a year, on baserunners no less (i.e. more valuable than a guy who’s not on base striking out), that basically no other catcher would get. I’m guessing that’s worth a good 3 or 4 runs/yr.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In terms of who is stealing on molina
I researched every game from the 2008 season to see each person who attempted a steal off Yadi assuming that only the elite were swiping bags. I checked the success rate of each base runner over their careers and tried to come to some conclusion. My results basically concluded that this just isn’t true, attributed mostly to the pitcher I’m sure. But all kinds of people attempted off Yadi, and all different kinds of successful and not-successful players stole successfully. In the end my conclusion was that Yadi clearly limits the game (or does he? Maybe his pitchers are just that good too), but the caught stealing can be as much about the pitcher so it’s pretty hard to discern much beyond that. This is the same reason Albert can steal third and Yadi can steal second.
by ajo080s on Aug 4, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's interesting
it’d be nice to see that published as a fanpost (or did you already?).
I suspect our ability to restrict the running game might’ve been slightly reduced this year by losing Looper – if I recall, he’s one of the best right-handed pitchers of all time for not getting stolen on.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely...
… the pick-offs are awesome. no question there.
by kindred on Aug 4, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Albert were only a .950 OPS guy.....
would they pitch to him more often, allowing him to hit more XBHs?
Baseball is a game where you can almost totally eliminate a player’s ability to make a difference if you are dedicated to the strategy. Whether that’s never running or even moving much off the base when Yadi’s behind the plate or walking Pujols on 4 pitches every single time regardless of situation, the fact of the matter is that if we’re talking about someone being so good they’re hurting the team, it’s probably hyperbole.
I say this because, like the other comments and the article itself said, Yadi’s arm prevents people from taking extra leads, from attempting to steal and from getting to 2nd to break up double plays and being able to go 1st to 3rd on base hits. By making the other team go station-to-station, it might require an additional base hit per inning to score a runner compared to playing with other catchers behind the plate. Any “easy outs” we lose in this equation, I would guess, are canceled out by the “easy runs” he prevents.
by mtalken on Aug 4, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
all i said was...
… it was an interesting thought experiment.
by kindred on Aug 4, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that 80% number is in game neutral situations
and in the cases where a SB might swing a game, the break-even percentage is much lower. I’d rather have someone who can catch runners in the latter situation, than someone who will rack up easy outs in the former.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 4, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is it?
An SB never swings a game, unless it’s a steal of home (or an error on a play at third, I guess). The best an SB can typically do is increase the odds of swinging a game; someone else still has to succeed after…
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
by SleepyCA on Aug 6, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Close and late SB's can increase winning probabilities a hell of a lot more
than early game ones. That’s really what I meant. The ‘swing a game’ was hyperbole (though you could probably find some game where someone stole third, the pitcher passed a ball, and the game was won, though that is admittedly very, very rare).
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 7, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
but close and late CS’s also cost the team a lot more.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 9, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hence why Yadi is as valuable as he is.
But I woudl say that the whole point is measuring how much the winning probability increases with the extra base versus how much it decreases with the extra out. it turns out that stealing is a better play in a close and late situation in the close and late case.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 9, 2009 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or the Double Double Steal
Last night KSDK had the top 10 steals in Cards history and they showed a double double steal, runners on 1st and 2nd steal 2nd and 3rd, runner in 3rd gets in a run down between 3rd and home yet makes it home and runner on 2nd gets to 3rd, 4 SBs on one pitch.
They also had the steal of home with the bases loaded to end the game. Lots of Brock and Coleman records too.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
by StLHugo on Aug 10, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't that Ozzie and Vince Coleman?
I think I remember that.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 10, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent summary, rec'd
This was really enjoyable, thanks.
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Aug 4, 2009 12:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I knew that about Albert
being Yadi’s hitting coach. He’s been helping him for years.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 4, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what DOES hal mcrae actually DO?
jk
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
by BVHeck on Aug 4, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was what I was thinking...
I heard this back around world series time… to see it repeated again is, uh. yeah.
Hey! The post is Serious! cool.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 4, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Yadi.....
That is all.
There are 3 things the average man thinks he can do better than everybody else: build a fire, run a motel, and manage a baseball team.
-- Rocky Bridges
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 4, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
rec'd!
off to have some franklins now…
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Aug 5, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love him too
Wouldn’ have any other catcher. Perhaps his son?
Yadi swings and hits a high fly ball... Endy Chavez goes back, to the track, to the wall... ITS A GUNNER!! Yadi gives St. Louis the lead in the top of the ninth!
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Aug 8, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2027!
start the clock
AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 8, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would reluctantly accept Joe Mauer.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 11, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would eagerly accept Joe Mauer.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 11, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe that...
one of the previous two posts was just a bit sarcastic.
by stlfan on Aug 11, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what time does does the game start today (EST)?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 5, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
whoops wrong thread fail.
ignore.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 5, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for this post.
I never buy that mag, but I did this one, and it was really a nice article. I’m gonna frame it and hang it in the bathroom. Yadi knows squat.
by cdc81 on Aug 9, 2009 1:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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