Off Day Relief
by DanUpBaby on Aug 3, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintI guess they won't be missing Oswalt so much after all. It's amazing how inelastic my subjective idea of this offense has gotten; even after all the acquisitions and the recent Rick Ankiel renaissance, even though I am a basically rational observer of baseball who has never once called into a radio program and hasn't gotten truly angry at a baseball game since some time in 2005, I wasn't surprised when a rookie, who walked Mad Max-style out of the post-apocalyptic wasteland that is the Astros farm system, took a no-hitter five innings deep. I can't shake it: for the rest of the season I'll be imagining Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel, even as I'm watching Matt Holliday and Rick Ankiel.
What's wasted is worth considering, anyway, if we've got an off-day to burn. More exciting than Wainwright's sterling outing—he is sterling, and that's all there is to it—were the two scoreless innings from the bullpen, which has been just this side of a meltdown for most of the season. First: Jason Motte! It's been really disappointing to see Motte struggle the way he has for much of this season, because his is the kind of reliever profile that is best served completely and consistently dominant. Even if he's exactly as valuable as, for an example, Dave Weathers, I need to see Motte come storming in with his tics and his fastball and mow hitters down. He can give up all the home runs, but I need more strikeouts and fewer base hits to feel fulfilled as a baseball fan.
So it was nice to see him do his thing and hit 99, if not the elusive ATG 100. I'm still a little wary of the zero-days-rest explanation for his problems; it makes sense, for one thing, and I'm at the point where I'm wariest of things that are intuitive. For what it's worth he did strike out four in his 2 1/3 perfect 2008 innings on zero rest; that brings the ERA all the way down to 9.58. But there's just not enough extended MLB success for me to see anything but a guy who is inconsistently effective, and often used by his manager, who seems to see him as a LOOGY-type short reliever, on back-to-back days.
Meanwhile: Blake Hawksworth? Yesterday's Blake Hawksworth, who brought his fastball all the way up to ATG 95 and threw some cutter/slider/sinker in the high 80s, was completely different from the one who'd shown up to this point. The fastball and the cutter took their one-inning jump in a hurry, but strangest was the fact that he didn't throw a single changeup, which, to this point, had been 25% of his repertoire.
I've said a lot—especially relative to the thought and analysis that was put into it—that Hawk's pitching is poorly predisposed to relief work. The low-nineties fastball, the out-pitch changeup, the get-me-over curveball; post-surgery his stuff just isn't befitting the Jason Motte type.
So he decided to throw it all out. I don't know how useful Hawksworth's going to be to this team at all—this is the first season he hasn't looked completely lost since 2006, the first year his long rehab took. But so far he's shown some surprise velocity and an ability to adapt to two different, basically thankless roles. If he takes, either as a reliable righty reliever or a back-of-the-rotation starter who doesn't evoke the Wellemeyer Response, great; if not, cheap replacement pitchers certainly come worse.
With that in mind, an off-day discussion topic, not that we've needed one lately: what does the bullpen look like next year? Franklin, Motte, and McClellan, the shaky top of the right-handed pen, would seem to be shoo-ins. Will the Cardinals drop someone on top of them, or hope that replacing Kinney and co. at the bottom is enough?
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Hawksworth
I dunno Dan, I think he could be a decent middle relief guy with that repertoire, he’s just really got to be able to throw strikes with the changeup, not just use it as an out pitch. There are plenty of examples of relievers with fastball/change repertoire in a relief role, but they’re all able to throw strikes with the change up.
It was nice to see Motte settle into a couple of good innings his past two outings, but I think a lot of is problem has been velocity. If someone has pitch f/x or gameday data on him the last month or so, I’d be interested to see if he’s hitting 97+ consistently like he was last year in his call-up in September, or if he’s settled into the 94-96 range which makes him more hittable, especially with a complete lack of an effective second pitch.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Changeup
I don’t see a changeup as a “strike” pitch. The idea, to me, of a change up is to get batters off tempo, to get them to roll over a pitch or set them up for the next pitch. What pitcher uses their changeup as a primary strike pitch? Trevor Hoffman maybe. From memory, the strike outs I see from a changeup are swings and misses, the ball is out of the strike zone not in the zone. Yes the change has to look like it is going to be a strike but how many changeups are ever taken for a strike?
What do I know? My changeup was my fastball.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 3, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Anthony Reyes?
:)
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
It's kind of a bad example
But Lincecum’s strikeout pitch is his changeup this year.
Not afraid to nitpick
Santana, Lincecum, Glavine
Pretty good changeup artists…
I’m still not sure why its frowned upon by this team.
A lot of people
assume that because a changeup sinks it is a good groundball pitch. A really excellent changeup with late break can be a groundball pitch, but most changeups are popped up because the hitter can’t keep his hands back so he drops the barrel of the bat to compensate for the timing error. Of course, a lot are also missed swings. Quite a few (as a percentage) also end up in the seats.
I am in favor of the changeup, but I see why Duncan doesn’t like it. Plus, the changeup is most effective when worked off a high fastball a la Cole Hammels. And we all know that high fastballs are an instrument of the devil. Never mind that there is a pretty hefty contingent of hitters who feast on low FBs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Upsetting a hitters timing is a big deal.
John Tudor was by far my favorite cards pitcher to watch over the years. Its sad to think he may not have been able to do what he did with our current coaching staff. He was a flyball pitcher that mostly made the hitters look dumb by throwing their timing off.
I think one of our problem in the playoffs (and possibly explaining TLR/Duncan’s relativly poor playoff performance) is their pitching staffs look too uniform. Carp, Wainwright, Pinero all have very similar fastballs with only minor differences. Carp/Wainwright have very similar breaking stuff. You see 3 similar pitchers 7 times in a row, you are going to get them figured out. Yes they are exceptional pitchers, but typically in the playoffs you are facing exceptional lineups on the other side.
Having a mix of pitchers so each day the other team sees a different look may have value. Has anyone seen a study along these lines?
i can't imagine you could ever study this.
because you would have to control for the individual pitcher’s repertoire AND his skill.
also, we have a poor history in the playoffs? we’re not exactly the padres. getting to the WS, the NLCS, and winning the WS in three straight years says “success in the postseason” to me.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I think DZ
is referring to TLR’s overall record. The only level where he has a winning record is the division series.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Correct.
His record in Oakland and here in the postseason was not what you would expect given the talent on the teams. Could be small sample size, could be something else.
Or, it could be, you know, small sample size
like, ridiculously small. Like you said.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
to giveml
you make a good point:
“the changeup is most effective when worked off a high fastball”
But Don Sutton made a nice point last night, too (I was listening to him on the radio because I REFUSE to listen to Joe Morgan) said that the best time to throw a changeup is right after a curve. His reasoning was that there is a strong expectation in the hitter’s mind that he is going to get a heater following a curve, and when the pitch looks straight, he tries to mash it.
Actually...
the hitter can’t keep his hands back so he drops the barrel of the bat to compensate for the timing error.
If a hitter is early, he’s going to extend, disconnect, and hit the ball out front, not drop the barrel.
I am having a hard time
visualizing what you mean. What exactly are you referring to as a “disconnect”?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Interesting
I don’t know if you consider it valid or not, but I was referring to a situation where the hitter shifts weight prematurely because he is fooled on the pitch and both the hands and the barrel of the bat drop in a futile effort to delay the swing. Not sure if we are disagreeing or talking about different things.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
to DriverZn
another guy you would have appreciated (from the good ol’ days) was Bob Friend of the Pirates. He was a change speed artiste, and is alleged to have had six or seven different grips on his “fastball.”
He had some down years as well as some very good ones, but only averaged roughly 4.3 Ks per 9; he also allowed just a shade over nine hits per 9 IP. Also significantly about 2.2 walks per 9.
He finished under .500 W/L for his career, but was 18-12 in Pitt’s WS year (1960) and overall played on some pretty crappy Pirate teams.
ps: I know most people start with Gibson, and then etc, but MY favorite Cardinal pitchers are Tewksbury, Tudor and Forsch.
Motte
I’ve got him averaging 96.4 last September and 95.5 this July. Percent wise I’ve got him at ~72% over 96mph last September and ~48% this July.
by stevesommer05 on Aug 3, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
August
Sorry, didn’t answer the question exactly…. in his last outing it had 10/13 (~77%) 96+mph
by stevesommer05 on Aug 3, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
One Thing....
….we need to do is keep Trevor Miller – its been very good having Grand Slam and Miller as our LOOGYs this year (as opposed to last year’s appalling duo ), and we need to keep it together. Sooo, that gives us Apple Sauce, Franklin, KMac, Miller, Grand Slam, probably Puppy Kicker – that leaves 1 moore slot if we go with 7 relievers. With the rotation being Carp, Wainy, Lohse, (and hopefully Piniero one moore season), I would think that the final spot would be a toss-up between Boggs, Hawksworth, maybe Garcia, and whoever else manages to have a good ST. I agree with what you say about Hawksworth, i think he serves us better as a starter than as a reliever, but at this point Boggs is ahead of him. Right now I’d have to say I see Boggs as the 5th starter and Hawksworth as the 7th arm in the pen (although he should push Puppykicker back a notch). A lot depends too on cow well Garcia bounces back – ideally we’d love to have a lefty in the rotation, so if Garcia comes back strong I cud see him at the bottom of the rotation, and Boggs as the 7th arm, with Hawk getting starts in AAA.
Am I missing anyone?
:=8)
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
+1 on Miller
The right side of the bullpen has certainly been a let down, but this is the best left-handed relief we’ve seen for quite awhile.
piniero is gonna cost way too much over too many years methinks
offer him arb…home he excepts and doesn’t revert to being pinata…no long term deals please
i agree on miller, though i will say we have a couple of lefty relievers in the minors who may well be close to the majors next year
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
If Piniero
is making 7.5m now what would an abitrator give him next year? Assuming he accepts an offer. Maybe 9m? I am asking because if we could get him for 2y20m and third year option would that be too much to pay? What is he worth on the open market?
3/30 is Pineiro's absolute base-line I think
and he might get more. If we sign him for that, we can probably say bye-bye Holliday. Not that that’s necessarily the worst thing in the world (a reasonably cheap Pineiro, plus DeRosa, plus a bit of cash to spend on the pen/3B/LF wouldn’t be a bad thing) but I get the feeling the org is higher on Holliday than Pin.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Pineiro
Isn’t this the guy nicknamed Pinata not long ago and couldn’t hold a 10 run lead last year? One fine year does not take away from multiple average or bad years. If you sign him realizing he is probably a 3 starter at best and really a 4 guy then ok. Pay him 4 rotation guy money. If not , offer arb not a long term deal.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 3, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
probably a little much
but he’s going to be looking for 3-5 guaranteed years at 12M+…and as good as he has been this year, and with the economy coming back, he may be able to get over 10M a year on a long term deal
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
as I said
it is totally moot. 2 years and 20 million dollars is not going to bring pineiro back, even with a team option for a third year (which, incidentally, is a WORSE deal for the player than a straight 2/20 deal) because he’ll get more than that somewhere else.
Pineiro is earning $7.5m this year in a season when everyone expected him to suck. After being one of TOP TEN PITCHERS IN THE LEAGUE (at current rate) in 2009, he’s not taking a minor pay bump. We won’t sign him, but if he’s available for 2/20, given that what he’s done looks reasonably sustainable and he’s been worth more than twice that rate this year, that would be a total bargain…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Call me Krazy
but I was just about the only guy on this board that liked the Joel signing. Last year I stuck up for him a little bit cause he pitched well in about 7 starts and I was wondering why he sucked in so many others. This year in the spring I told my wife that I expected him to have a big year firguring it was a contract year.
I guess the question he needs to ask himself is “How much of my success is from my environment and my coaching?” I woud also think that the market my also ask that same question. I like him, and I would not mind the FO trying to bring him back, but it’s not my payroll I need to make.
i supported pineiro too
but it’s a bit too early to declare victory. In the last 30 years, only two pitchers who qualified for the ERA title have had a HR/9 as low as pineiro’s, right now, and the other one was Greg Maddux. In his career year.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
I thought he'd be better this year
he was pretty unlucky last year with his BABIP, HR/FB etc. I thought he’d be a 1.5 win player this year, which would make him just about worth his salary overall. I don’t think anyone expected THIS, though….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Let him walk
plus promise him a spot on the next WBC. Then let a division rival pay him stupid amounts of money. Everybody wins…
…by which I mean we win on all counts.
"Every epoch dreams its successor" - Jules Michelet
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 3, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed - Joel's chance at a big payday
This off season is Joel’s best chance at landing the big contract (he’ll be 31 in Sept). The Cards should offer him arb (unlike Looper last offseason) and Joel will politely decline, knowing that if all else fails the Cards would welcome him back on a one year deal. Accepting arbitration is a huge risk for Joel.
I disagree on Miller
if he’s a type A (or even B) free agent and he turns down arbitration, he’s much more effective to this team turned into a draft pick or two. Especially if DeRo and Holliday come back, the draft pick windfall we all anticipated to re-stock the depleted system might not be so great after all, and Miller’s one of those relatively fungible commodities (an effective LOOGY) that don’t cost huge amounts in the current market.
I like him a lot and I’d love to see him back (it would also be nice if his type A status suppresses his value to the point we can get him uber-cheap again) but ultimately I just think the potential picks are worth more.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Miller
I don’t see Miller being the guy that a team gives up draft picks for. Plus if he accepts arbitration then won’t we be on the hook for a Russ Springer like 3M dollar salary? I don’t see us spending that much on a LOOGY.
You may run like Hayes, but you hit like shit.
He's making a $500,000 base salary
this year. Does arbitration take incentives into consideration?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I don't think so
but I think it does take past years salary as well and he made 1.6M,1.3M and 1.3M in the last 3 years so I could see the Cards offering 1.5 or 1.75 and getting that.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
as of today Trevor Miller is a TYPE A free agent
He’s right on the boarderline between A and B, but is type A right now, and chances are that he’ll keep that status.
translation— Cardinals will offer arbitration and probably agree to a one year deal with Miller for approx $2MM.
Because Miller is a type A free agent, other teams will not want to give up a draft pick to sign him, so the Cardinals get increased leverage in negotiations.
It would be better for Miller if he was a type B free agent, so he could use other teams interest as leverage. But with a small tear in his shoulder, his age, and teams having to sacrifice a first or second round pick to sign him, the Cardinals are clearly his best choice on a reasonable 1 year deal.
This is why I hate the Elias Ranking
Miller even if he was free is not worth losing a draft pick over. We hold on the chips and Miller has no leverage. All he can do is accept arbitration because their is no other optiion
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 3, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
It's only a matter of time until they change the rule
it was made very clear to Bud Selig last year that a lot of players are struggling in free agency due to their elias ranking. Orlando Hudson being the most obvious case last year.
At least his was somewhat justified. He was a Type A in production decline
It is absolutely horrible rating on the reliever side. What they should do is give rating to each position based on certain stats. Than line all the players in one group. Regardless of position just the top 10% of baseball players are Type A and 20% Type B
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 3, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s right on the boarderline between A and B, but is type A right now, and chances are that he’ll keep that status.
translation— Cardinals will offer arbitration and probably agree to a one year deal with Miller for approx $2MM.
Fuck $2m. Why on earth would we give him that? If we offer arb and he declines, we shouldn’t give him a penny over the league minimum. Those picks are way more valuable than getting a reasonable LOOGY for a fairly significant cost ($2m). We either use his Type A status to negotiate a lowball offer, or we let the guy walk and take the picks.
Chances are someone with a protected pick will get him, or someone who’s already signed a type A will pick him up (in which case there is STILL A CHANCE we get their first rounder if the other Type A they sign has a lower Elias ranking, which is very possible), and in any case we still get the supplemental.
The only other possibility if he declines arby is that NO-ONE at all will sign him, and his options are retire, or sign with us. In which case, we’d be crazy to offer $2m. Offer him the minimum.
Realistically, he probably accepts arby (if he’s an A) and we’re paying $1.5m or something, or (if he’s a B) we get a draft pick. Either way we shouldn’t be voluntarily paying more than we have to for a fungible piece.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Lance Lynn? Does his potential extend to next year in the bigs? Truly do not know. I think it a given that the team will try to use its payroll to resign Holliday. so . . .
I do not anticipate any FA pitchers.
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
doubt it
Mortenson was run up to AAA too soon and I hope they don’t try to do the same with Lynn and rush him up to the bigs too soon. Late next year maybe but more like September call up than any meaningful time.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
We complain about our rotation depth...
and as far as top-tier stuff for good reason, but we have a slew of guys who could be #4/5 starters in the bigs next season (Garcia, Boggs, Hawk, Lynn, Walters). With CC and WW at the top, and Lohse a solid #3 I like our chances at one of the best rotations in baseball for a few more years (as long as Carp can stay healthy).
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
i'm reluctant to have both the #4 and #5
Slots taken by our internal candidates, but I’ve been thinking that maybe our depth at the back of the rotation could let us do something interesting, like signing a high-end starter coming off injury.
Brandon webb just announced he’s having immediate shoulder surgery. The dbacks will probably have to decline his option. Anybody interested in picking him up for $5M? – using smoltz/penney as an example. Sheets would be another option along this line.
If we’re not going to spend $10-12m to get pineiro or an equivalent, I’d rather get a high risk/reward deal than spend $5m on braden looper or his equivalent, who would probably marginally outperform hawksworth.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 3, 2009 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No to Webb,
That injury is career-threatening in a very real way. If Webb ever makes it back it’ll probably be late 2010 or 2011.
15=/=25
Huh?
You know what his injury is? They don’t even know exactly what is wrong with his shoulder. It’s pretty much exploratory surgery from everything I’ve seen.
Not afraid to nitpick
Here's the thing about shoulder surgery,
as much as they know there is a lot they don’t know about it. My brother was looking at having it done, and maybe due to his particular circumstance, the doctor flat out told him that the surgery may fix but there also is a significant chance that either it wouldn’t help or he could be worse, almost to the point of not being able to use his arms again. The doctor said that unlike the hip or knee or elbow, there was too much that goes on in the shoulder that they don’t know or understand. Sounds like a crap shoot to me.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 3, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm aware
But to say “there’s 0 percent chance Webb can be back next year” is wrong. Plus if there’s anyone in the majors I’d pick to be able to be at least useful with significantly diminished stuff it’d be Webb. If he’s throwing 84-88 he’s a big leaguer still.
Not afraid to nitpick
Not arguing on any point,
Just throwing it out there that it may be a Mulder situation. That even though it may look like a success, there is still a huge chance that he won’t get back to even that level.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 3, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course
If he got Wakefield to teach him how to throw a knuckleball, he wouldn’t have to throw it that hard.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 3, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
we'll see. i'm certainly not arguing that if webb's should looks like mark
prior’s we should take him on. I’m throwing his name out there as the kind of reclamation project we could get in on at $4-5M. I’m expressing interest if he’s going to be ready by mid-summer next year.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
But Webb is a sinker-heavy guy
would decreased velocity matter a whole ton if he’s trying to get groundballs anyways?
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 3, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
wasn't that what Mark Mulder was?
lots and lots of (75% of his pitches) sinkers, 50+% GB rate? The big difference between the two, besides handedness, is that Webb strikes more guys out.
Until this year, that is.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
Right, but Webb's sinker is so devastating that
if he could transform himself into a no walk-all contact guy like Pinata (which is overstating it), he would still be extremely effective.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 4, 2009 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions
That is what Mulder was in a Cards uniform
In 2005 he had a 2.88 gb/fb ratio. Brad Thompson would be another comp in 2006 with his 2.32 GB/FB. Now both of those pitchers collapsed soon after. The problem is pitchers with a very low K/9 and very high GB/FB ratio are walking a very fine line. They have just enough stuff to get the hitters to put the ball in play on the ground but not enough left to get the swing and miss. The problem with this is if they lose just a bit more they suddenly lose their GB/FB ratio and the hitters start lighting them right up.
On that note there is no way I resign Pinero for next year. He is at an age where small losses in stuff are expected and without his near historically low bb/9 he is not an above average pitcher. He will almost certainly regress a great deal next year.
Decreased velocity is always bad
Also, Webb isn’t just a groundball guy; he also has a career 7.26 K/9 ratio. That’s what makes him so good.
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
Like Chris Carpenter and his torn labrum?
There’s a number of pitchers who have come back from labrum tears at this point. And like I said if you were to pick a single pitcher to come back with diminished stuff, wouldn’t it be Webb?
Not afraid to nitpick
Chris Carpenter's labrum surgery was wildly successful and completely unrepeatable.
Chris Carpenter’s labrum surgery was a failure. Which is why it was successful.
The average SLAP surgery does not give a pitcher enough range of motion to pitch effectively. Luckily for Chris, he suffered complications and had to have his hardware and scar tissue removed, but the labrum remained attached. He’s basically the only pitcher to ever pitch effectively again after a real labrum tear (not just a frayed labrum).
In 2004 Will Carrol wrote this about the labrum.
Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle.
Paying Webb $5M for a 20 to 1 shot at him ever pitching again is not a contract I’m going to sign.
15=/=25
by hazel on Aug 3, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am never missing another Carpenter pitch ever again.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
And Carroll has since backed away from that with "recent advances"
And you know whether Webb has fraying or a torn labrum? Presumably seeing as how they tried rehab the MRIs didn’t show destruction.
Not afraid to nitpick
Ever read an MRI?
There isn’t a good protocol for diagnosing labral tears on MRI, that’s why most pitchers who go through this sort of a “rest, test, re-evaluate” regimen before surgery finds the lesion.
But they haven’t found a lesion yet, and if they don’t, the D-Backs have first crack at Webb. Think they’re not going to take it?
15=/=25
It’s been three years since I wrote a piece at Slate about labrums. It still shows up high on the Google rankings and I get questions about it (almost as many as that April Fools article that fools people three years later) even today. However, in just three years, the article is essentially obsolete.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't subscribe, but I don't see him saying the prognosis for Labrum tears is significantly better than five years ago.
The surgery is still an attempt to re-anchor the superior labrum, and while rehab has probably progressed, the prognosis for Cordero and Garcia seems about the same as Nen.
15=/=25
The key sentence from that article
though even it is more than 2 years old and not fully explained is:
“The injury is still devastating, but not career-killing for pitchers.”
Devastating but not career-killing. $5 M to Brandon Webb, if it is indeed a torn labrum, would be pretty risky, IMO.
I think that could be a great option for us...
if player X (Webb for example) doesn’t pan out we’ve got the depth to cover us. I think I’d rather see Sheets sign with us, as I’ve long coveted his arm and Webb’s injury is really scary IMO. Where is Sheets at anyway? Wasn’t he supposed to be ready by now?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Is Joe Blanton a fair comp to Lynn?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I don't think
so. Lynn doesn’t throw very hard.
Blanton
Actually he was getting up to 93-94 in his last start against San Fran. He’s been the Phillies best pitcher for awhile. Hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a start since June 18 and no more than 4 since May 21.
You may run like Hayes, but you hit like shit.
Thompson's days are numbered
Thompson is going into his second year of arbitration and may cost 2x-3x what Hawksworth would cost. Blake’s work the rest of this season will go a long way to determining if Brad is offered arbitration and, at this point, I think no arb will be the decision to help offset the increased cost of Miller and Dennys.
Financially, I don’t think the Cards have it in the budget to plop a new closer into the equation. This might be plan F if the Cards can’t sign Holliday, DeRosa, a new starter, a 3B, a LF or extend Albert.
plus the free agent closer class this offseason is not very inspiring
valverde is probably the best, but someone is going to pay him a ton of money(and it won’t be DeWitt and Mo)
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Puppy-kicker...
is a certain non-tender candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the club extend him an offer around $750K before and after non-tendering, but offering arby would be a big mistake for STL.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
no arb offer for Thompson
I agree with your assessment there… Thompson makes 650k this year, so I see the Cards offering him a raise to approx $800K next year, take it or leave it.
Washington on Cincy might be willing to give him 1MM so if he’s non-tendered and gets 1MM guaranteed then I’ll be happy for him and just move on…
Yeah
Thompson can stay or go as far as I care. He’s a complete non-entity.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems...
The Cardinals inevitably struggle against rookie pitchers and lefties. God help the team when a rookie lefty is opposing them.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Thurston
Im still pissed about Thurston’s bat in the 8th yesterday. Yes, strike 1 was a ball but swinging at the next 2 pitches nearly killed me. What a damn awful at bat. I was late to the “get Thurston off this team party” but now im here and want to make up for lost time.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
With all of the MIF's/3B we've got...
you have to think JT’s days are numbered. We still don’t know what Khalil is going to do, but we have Lugo, Ryan, Schu, and Dero as well who can all play 2nd and 3rd. JT’s only advantage is being a lefty.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
fixed.
Im still pissed about Thurston’s bat in the 8th yesterday. Yes, strike 1 was a ball but swinging at the next 2 pitches nearly killed me. What a damn awful at bat. I was late to the "get Thurston off on this team party" but now im here and want to make up for lost time.
"Every epoch dreams its successor" - Jules Michelet
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 3, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Great post, Danup.
I kinda feel the same way about the offense. Hey, its still the Cards and a rogue rookie pitcher is going to shut them down no matter who they acquire.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
Yep
Non-descript rookie/fill-in pitchers are kryptonite to the Cards. Bernie lamed it on not having enough scouting film on them. Which leads me to wonder, why are our players so overly reliant on scouting film sessions to prepare fpr a new pitcher? I mean, other teams don’t seem to struggle with unknowns this much, or is that just my perception due to the fact that i pay more attention to the Cards struggles?
by ArkansasTravs on Aug 3, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
lamed = blamed
that’s what i get for typing one-handed while I eat lunch!
by ArkansasTravs on Aug 3, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I would buy into this idea
but it doesn’t explain why Holliday and Derosa couldn’t get hits either, since they are still too new to just rely on video imo
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 3, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm fine with the pen being,
Franklin,
Mac,
Motte,
Reyes,
Miller,
Hawk,
Kinney.
Unless relief help comes extremely cheap, there’s little reason to pay real money for it. A cheap pen allows us to spend more money on LF/3B/SP.
15=/=25
I am not so worried about LF and 3B
If Holliday is not signed we have Mather/Ankiel platoon. Even if DeRossa is signed I would like to see what Freese can offer in ST.
Kinney is done for.
There has to be better internal/cheap options. He’s getting hammered in AAA ever since his demotion.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Isn't there some kind of "you killed Kinney" joke we can make...
and then we can never hear from him again? Our bullpen should be ok next year…franklin, kmac, motte, reyes, miller (assuming he signs – royce ring has been good btw, or some other loogy), hawk, boggs/garcia.
eduardo sanchez is a possibility as well, he’s been lighting it up at AA and his fastball/slider combo is legit and he can throw strikes. That’s all we need.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously, I think people are totally over-rating the right-hand side of our bullpen
that has the potential to be one of the worst pens in MLB. We don’t know if Motte is capable of pitching at this level yet. Frankling might turn back into the mediocre pitcher he’s been his whole career, and I really don’t see how we can expect him to be more than average (expect, rather than hope, for another freak year…). KMac is average, nothing more, nothing less. The rest are all unknown quantities or replacement level guys.
We’ve got one, maybe two, right-handers who can be relied upon to be average bullpen arms, and absolutely ZERO guys with serious upside (i.e. significant potential to be a bullpen ace type).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Glaus seeing doctor about bulging disc (per Rotoworld sidebar)
New nickname? Troy Glass?
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
Hey, 3 or 4 days of steroid treatment
(not the anabolic kind) and he’s good! Worked for me!
A P-D article
says he’s already had a shot. Doesn’t sound like it’s helping.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 3, 2009 12:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Shots are cortisone, right?
I don’t know how cortisone works differently than steroid pills.
Well, really, I’m just being smartass about the whole thing anyway.
I'm assuming they gave him cortisone.
They didn’t say so specifically.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I say we give him the real thing
and hope it works out. How long does it take for anabolic steroids to kick in?
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Aug 3, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
"Sorry, but it looks like just another case of 'Troy being Troy'."
See? I’ve already come up with his alibi. Plus the details won’t come out until 6 years after the Cards take the series. Let’s move forward with this asap.
"Every epoch dreams its successor" - Jules Michelet
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 3, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
and we don't have to pay him while he's banned
I really don’t see a downside here.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
that makes the question of what
We do if albert is really hurt more interesting.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 3, 2009 12:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
conspiracy theory
That’s why they’re keeping Thurston. Move DeRosa to 1B, install Thurston at 3B.
/lies and damned lies…
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Couldn't make it that weekend
But I will be at the September 12 game vs. the Braves, if anyone is planning on going to that one!
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 3, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
i just happen to have tickets to that game as well
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 3, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Where is the VEB meeting at?
Just in case I get a chance to go.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 3, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure yet
But we are trying to organize seats together at the Ballpark
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 3, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you would, let me know please.
Unless you are going to put it in a fanshot. I don’t know if I can pull it off, but will if possible.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 3, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
me
might be crashing on your couch. still don’t have a ticket for the game
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 3, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
What the fuck
You thought the Jake Peavy deal was a surprise? The Red Sox, Mariners and Padres discussed a trade that would have made the Peavy acquisition look like the Jason Hirsh deal, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. Baker hears that the Red Sox gave the Mariners the chance to choose five of the following players in exchange for Felix Hernandez:
* Clay Buchholz
* Daniel Bard
* Justin Masterson
* Nick Hagadone
* Michael Bowden
* Felix Doubront
* Josh Reddick
* Yamaico Navarro
The Mariners apparently turned down the deal, at which point the Padres became involved in discussions about a possible three-way trade. The Mariners would have received Adrian Gonzalez, Buchholz and prospects in the deal. They would have sent Felix to the Red Sox and dealt Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel to the Padres, who would have received prospects from the Red Sox as well. In the end, Baker says the Mariners nixed the deal.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
The 5 prospects from the Sawx would likely be a good baseball deal
But murderous PR.
Not afraid to nitpick
Yeah I saw that
That would have been an OK deal for the Red Sox, then what do they do with Smoltz/Penny?
Man, with this outfield, need to get rid of that Rasmus guy. :)
If I were Mo
and I heard Felix was going to be possibly dealt. I would say pick any six prospects, and we have a deal.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Aug 3, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
7 then
I would offer them the whole farm system literally.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Aug 3, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
we don't have any prospects this good...
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, we don't have a clay buchholz or even a bard on our team.
even wallace wasn’t the blue chip that i think either of them were. we were never in the running for king felix, unless we wanted to put both colby and waino in the mix.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Wallace >>> Bard
Bard was ranked 97 on Baseball America’s list. Granted that we have no Bucholz, but I think with more prospects the haul would equal out.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Aug 3, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
We might see more of Hawksworth
“When you get an important assignment like he did the other day in extra innings and you pitch well, then it opens the door for another assignment,” Cards manager Tony La Russa said. “He had another one (Sunday) and he handled that.”
Just remember
Hawksworth > Wellemeyer. Maybe even > Boggs
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
I think Hawk...
gets the next start for the 5th spot…looks to me like next Monday or Tuesday more likely. It’ll be interesting to see if Hawk pitches this weekend which would make a Boggs recall a likely necessity unless TLR decides to go with Welley or Thompson.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Disagree.
I think it looks more like Boggs went down to stay in a five day rotation since we are skipping once and will be on normal rest for the next 5 spot start. Hawksworth, meanwhile, is probably losing his conditioning and will probably just stick in the middle innings in the bullpen.
15=/=25
You may be right...
Boggs did well enough in his last start to deserve another shot, but he was not impressive IMO severely lacking control. Hawk has looked VERY good lately and was nails in the extra inning game. If I’m TLR I try to avoid using Hawk after Friday so I can pitch him on Tuesday…I believe Tuesday is the first day that Boggs can be recalled barring a DL move, so you are probably correct that the intention was to send Boggs down so he could start Wed. or Thur. for Memphis, and then be good to go Tuesday for STL. I’d still prefer to see Hawk get the start. Who gets sent down to make room for Boggs?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I don't think it matters that much since it will probably be another up and down single start,
depends on Khalil and Thurston’s performance til then.
15=/=25
You think one of the two will be DFA'd?
I’m pretty sure neither has options…or maybe Khalil is DL’d again…?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
i think khalil is down to his last chance with the team.
if he goes another okay week and then has a relapse, we won’t be able to rely on him. he should probably just be released at that point.
khalil has to stick with the team or go.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Why would you release him if you could just put him back on the DL?
Assuming he has another relapse, which he hopefully won’t.
because that would give us a chance to call up somebody else
when the rosters expand.
also, ignoring the roster issues, if he’s really that unstable, i’d just rather give the playing time to somebody else. i’d like to see allen craig get some RH pinch-hitting chances. tyler greene – for all that he stunk the place up for a while – is doing really well in AAA. david freese could be our starting 3b; i’d like to see how he does when healthy.
at some point, waiting on him to get better and hoping that this call-up will be the time he comes back and does better becomes a pointless exercise. late august is probably about that point. if he goes down soon, he won’t be back until almost the time for rosters to expand.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Khalil sticks this season out on the roster
for PR purposes. Book it.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
How do you PR emotionally unstable?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 3, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
They'd look heartless and cold if they DFAd him.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Exactly.
It would look like they were turning a cold shoulder on a player going through a tough time. Real story is that they didn’t do their homework before that trade (or it wasn’t as bad in SD) and now they’re stuck with the repercussions.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
No one
will ever move from San Diego to Saint Louis again.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
wait a minute
People actually do that?
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Seems like Hawk has dialed up the velo when he's out of the bullpen
…if he can keep htting 95 out of the pen, I’d rather keep him there and let Boggs start. We need RH relief that can throw strikes and get the occasional strikeout. If Hawk is that guy, great.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I see the logic here...
especially if it better prepares the team for the playoffs where a 5th starter will not be necessary, but a legit RH’d bullpen arm would be a nice addition.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Pujols comments in the PD
made me feel better about the Mang. According to Brian Feldman on 101.1 ESPN Pujols was very affable and laid back while giving the answers, not surly. This leads me to believe, that it probably is nothing more than a slump (and not an injury like I previously thought)
I have to say that I am relieved to read this from you dcf....
you have been sounding the “Pujols is hurt” horn for a while now and I was starting to really get concerned.
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Aug 3, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Yay!
I felt better reading his comments, too. The elbow is always going to bother him. It’s just a matter of degree.
Man. Hope Pu snaps out of this, and quick-like.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
there are mixed feelings about this, but...
Albert can watch his home runs for as long as he wants, forever, amen.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
It's silly when he watches his long fly outs, but yeah.
The man has earned his ridiculousness and his Ridiculousness™.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
in yet another unorthodox move, tony la russa stated to the media that,
based on recent performances, he would try to spark the cardinals offense by batting the pitcher fifth.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
wait
is this serious?
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Matt Holiday
MLBTR says he could look at 5/75.. that doesn’t seem terrible for a high quality outfielder that can really handle the bat. He is only 29 and 5 years puts him at the 34/35 threshold. It would just move glaus $$ and production from 3rd to LF.
That'd be fine with me
Any more than that in AAV or years and we’re pushin it.
Not afraid to nitpick
He turned down $18 M a year
if he wants $15 M now, they shouldn’t even wait for the ink to dry before sending it to the league office.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 3, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
I am thinking it will be more like 5/100
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I think he'll get...
$18-20M/ season on a 5-6 year deal…I hope the Cards don’t offer over 5/$75M.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
no chance he gets 20
unless he puts up a monster 2 months for the Cardinals and has a good post season.
The economy , while looking slightly better, is still in the crapper.
He’ll get 17-18 per max.
There are still many who question...
whether Holliday is that good of a hitter as has been discussed ad nauseum. His pre 2009 non-Coors numbers aren’t very impressive, and his pre-July 2009 numbers aren’t either. It’s gonna take a really solid second half for him to get $20M/year…but he’s off to a good start. I think he’ll ultimately sign for 5/$90M…but it doesn’t really matter what I think.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I still don't see Holliday getting 20
I also see the Red Sox locking up Jason Bay and being out of the LF Market.
The Yankees could pose a problem, but i figure they have to eventually run out of money.
I would be very much in favour
of signing Damon for 1 or maybe even 2 years (ideally 1) if we can’t get Holliday, and having him manning left field.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
no...
Isn’t he bad defensively now, with a below average arm? And he has made $13M a year for the last 3 years…
his arm has always been awful
but he’s still an adequate LF IMO. He’s wOBAd over .370 the last two years (league average ~.328), gets on base at a good clip, can take a walk, and hits lefties and righties relatively well. He’s been well over the 75% SB success rate cutoff in the last three years, and played a minimum of 141 games each year.
Through 07, 08 and 09 he’s started 162 games in LF and his UZR is above average there – 4.6 runs/150. He’s probably, at worst, about an average left-fielder.
He was worth 3.6 WAR last year, and is on track to be over 3 WAR this year. His values have been hurt a little bit by DHing, too; a DH gets the worst positional adjustment (because they don’t field) – if he plays in LF, and is average or slightly above, you can add a chunk of value there. I feel he’s probably a 3+ WAR player next year. $10m on a 1-yr deal would be fine.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought he turned down 5/72?
or was it 4/72?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It was 4
He said he rejected it because he wanted 5-6 years, but who knows :P
Man, with this outfield, need to get rid of that Rasmus guy. :)
When I think of Boras and Holliday
7 years and $140M seems like the starting point for Boras in my mind
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 3, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
he'll never get that
I can’t even see the yankees stepping up with that.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Holliday $
He will be able to get more than 5/$75k. He is the best free-agent player to enter the off-season market. I truly hope that the home team signs him, but it’s doubtful. Considering his agent, he’ll get huge, huge money from a coast team, and in his later years fondly remember his brief visit to St. Louis.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
The rest of the season
Is anyone else concerned that the Cubs have played 5 fewer games than the Cardinals? They will be less rested at the end of the season (for what that may be worth…) but they have a greater opportunity at a + record than the Cardinals. The games left v. the Cubs are super important.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
did yiou read the fanpost about cubs vs. cards strength of schedule?
it’s good
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 3, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why we can't afford anymore tallies in the Loss column..
at least till they get caught up to us. Looking at calculations we need what, 90 wins normally is good. Taking that calculation we need to go 32-22 the rest of the way to hit that mark. The cubs would need to go 35-24 with their remaining schedule. I haven’t glanced at the remaining schedule yet so don’t know how feasible either will be.
This loss column thing is a big misconception...
Compared to the Cardinals, the Cubs have an extra 5 games to play (starting tonight).
Hypothetically, let’s say the Cardinals go 30-24 (.556) in their last 54 games, finishing at 88-74.
The Cubs would have to go 33-26 (.559) in their last 59 games to finish with the same record, 88-74.
Therefore, the Cubs would need to go 3-2 in their extra 5 games to tie the Cardinals, but 4-1 in those 5 games to beat the Cardinals.
But the overriding point is that for the Cubs to win the division, they have to have a higher winning percentage than the Cardinals going forward.
V, b.
Which means...
that the Cardinals hold a slight advantage over the Cubs, which is reflected perfectly by the half game lead in the standings.
V, b.
This is exactly right.
The idiotic loss column line is total nonsense. The fact is the Cubs will have to play .600 or .800 ball in those 5 games to tie or pass us. Not likely.
15=/=25
The loss column argument is about as idiotic as the win column argument..
so there is no need to qualify with idiotic as a shot at me basically.
-looks at hazel-
Actually it's Cubs talk radio that is all about "we're only 3 back in the loss column"
I don’t see you making a loss column (or similarly stupid) argument anywhere. I was making fun of the cubs, not yourself.
15=/=25
They still have to win 4 more games than we do the rest of the way to win the division outright
If neither team wins a game the rest of the way, we finish 3 games ahead of them
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
Exactly...
Everyone is freaking about it, because the Cubs fans have somehow convinced everyone that they hold an advantage despite what the standings say.
V, b.
ZOMG WE CONTORL OUR DENSITY IF WE WIN ALL OUR GAMES IN DOSENT
MATTER WHAT YOU GUYS DO! WE CONTROL OUR DENSITY
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 3, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Destiny misspell twice FTW
Cubs fans don’t know how to spell. Spot on, tom.
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
Hey now
don’t put +1 and “rec” on the same level! hah.
+0
I’m unconvinced but willing to listen more.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
yeah, this
or +1
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
rec's dont show up till you refresh
so if you just stay on the post all day you won’t see recs or greens till you hit refresh
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Some people actually don't rec, though.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
why do people ponder netiquette
and not, say, cancer research or something? mysteries of the world.
"Every epoch dreams its successor" - Jules Michelet
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 3, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Leave the cancer research to the cancer researchers.
I’m sure most of us would only slow them down.
by notmorganfreeman on Aug 3, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If they lose tonight
they’ll have 1 fewer loss than we do. Their advantage there will be all but gone. They’d have to win all those extra 5 games going forward to make up the difference.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 3, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
With Greinke getting knocked around today
Carp is now leading the Majors in ERA.
ADAM and Pinata are 12th/13th.
:headshot
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
imagine what happens when someone tells Jo-El
There’s no WBC next year.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
jo-el leads the majors in hr/9 at 0.20.
waino is second in IP behind cliff lee. carp is 6th and pineiro 8th in FIP. carp and pineiro 2nd and 6th in WHIP.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Now if we can just get Pujols hitting the ball hard,
then we will truly be the juggernaut that I think we can be.
If we can get into the playoffs, we just about have to be the favorites to reach the WS. Piniero, WW, Carp fronting the rotation plus Holliday, Luddy, Pujols in the lineup will be absolutely deadly. IMO, this is our best baseball team since ’04.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
that will be a fine way to remember them
next spring. I propose that we don’t risk angering any GOB’s by doing it in august, though.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
and not having to give up any-butter?
"Every epoch dreams its successor" - Jules Michelet
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 3, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Rolen ok?
Marquis corked his noggin yesterday, shaking both of them up. Scott left the game, Betty returned on the mound and I never heard whether Scott was ok.
I’ll be watching tonight if Scott is in the lineup on ESPN. I think that was probably the ultimate tipping point that turned me sour towards LaRussa…when he ran my favorite player out of town.
they said on rotoworld that he'll be back in the lineup tonight, iirc.
board pool on who gets plunked on the rockies?
i say tulo.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Scotty made sure to make up with Marquis before he left
It’s possible he’ll just tell ‘em betty does that sometimes, and there’ll be no retaliation.
Because that would just clog the bases…
…wait.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I said it the other day
I feel like Marquis hits more batters in the head than any other pitcher in MLB. I remember him shattering some dude’s helmet for the Rockies a few years ago when he was still on the Cubs. I think there may have been another one.
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
listening
to the game yesterday (in rockies country) – sounded like he probably would have been fine to play but was removed out of caution. Apparently he made an ’I’m OK’ gesture to Marquis as he was walking to the dugout.
by cdb on Aug 3, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he did
which scared the hell out of Betty. Betty didn’t know he was telling him that everything is ok and I understand the ball slipped and Jason pointed to his chest like “Who, me?” as if Scott was blaming him for what happened.
It was funny.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 3, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought that was what Rolen was indicating.
Damn. That was a lot less exciting now. I love me a good baseball fight.*
*By fight I mean where the players run up and stand real close to each other without actually making physical contact. Sometimes one or more will swing a purse.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
baseball fight >>>> soccer fight
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
It's like a junior high dance
a lot of feet shuffling and heavy breathing, but nobody touching anybody.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 4, 2009 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Totally unrelated breaking news alert.
We were arguing the pros and cons of managers “playing the hot hitter” the other day. I believe certain researchers have stated that it is not possible to predict streakiness, some comparing it to a coin flip.
I just read a study regarding coin flips. The side facing up when the coin is flipped is actually at a 51% chance of remaining up after settling on the surface. That is right, folks. If you flip the coin with the heads up, you have a 51% chance of getting a heads result. I don’t know how to post links, but the study is highlighted on Yahoo.com.
What does this relate to playing streaky players? Hell if I know. The article actually relates to the stock market and the momentum of certain rising or falling stocks. I just thought it was an interesting bit of info.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Yep. Thanks for doing the lifting for me JD.
Do you think this has any relevance with baseball or the world?
Personally, I do. I think that there is such a thing as momentum. People that believe in random chance pretty much write off momentum, because momentum cannot occur if the events of tomorrow aren’t directly linked to the events of today. There are just odds, and those odds determine what happens independent of the results precending them.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
A "coin flip" is just a euphemism for random chance....
so whether a coin flip really is or isn’t a 50/50 proposition is beside the point. Obviously, if you start controlling the conditions under which the flip occurs, you can start controlling the odds of getting heads or tails.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn't that be analagous to "seeing the ball better" or some other variable being brought into control?
Maybe a player gets better sleep or switches to a lighter bat. There are literally millions of things that a player can change that may garner real improvement, at least for a while.
I’ll compare it to golf. When I get everything working right, I can go out and shoot 70-75 at my course. Then I get greedy. I think, hell if I can shoot 74 like that, then I need to start swinging even harder or aim for more pins. Then things fall apart and I have to calm myself down again. Those are streaks created by me. I created momentum, both good and bad, by my own doing.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
You asked whether this study has any relevance to baseball...
I say “no” because I think the “coin flip” analogy is one of the dumber analogies made when talking baseball. So, the study doesn’t have any relevance for two reasons:
First, saying something is a “coin flip” just denotes random chance. When it comes to the peformance of baseball players, almost nothing is random chance, we just say it is because we are unable to discern/measure the factors that differentiate random chance from causation. So, to me, it’s terrible analogy in the first place.
Second, and relatedly, this new study doesn’t have any relevance to anything because it’s saying that if you start controlling the environment of a “coin flip,” you can start affecting the odds and it’s no longer random chance. That’s a “no shit, Sherlock” proposition. Of course it’s no longer random if you start controlling the randomness.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is the true issue in a nutshell (though it doesn't get debated as such)
Are “hot streaks” random fluctuations (like coin flips) such that you cannot use them to predict future performance OR are they actual changes in skills for temporary time periods such that you could predict future performance if you had the right information? This question is essentially unanswerable and is not addressed by the Book, or other statistical constructs, because it requires information that is very hard to gather and measure.
But here is the issue as it usually gets debated around here- should TLR play Player X (a player in the midst of a “hot streak”) or Player Y (a player who, over a statistically significant period, is “better” than Player X)? The answer is that, statistically speaking, TLR should play Player Y because TLR is unable to predict the continuation of the hot streak (i.e., a cold streak is just as likely). Since Player Y is “better,” you should always play Player Y all other things being equal (i.e. no injury, etc.). The flipside is the tendency for people to overvalue (or value at all, some would argue) the “hot streak” because of bias.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe in momentum
But I don’t believe that has any correlation to whether a coin flip is 50/50 or 51/49
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
thinking about this...
Maybe I am completely off base here…. It seems to me that if we assume that there is a mean level of performance, to which the current level will regress, and assuming that a player is performing well above his mean in batting average over the course of the first half of the season, can we predict that – at least probabilistically, he will peform at a level worse than his mean over the second half of the season?
This is easier on the coin flip scenario, because we know the mean does not change (~50%). If we flipped 100 times and got 80 heads – in some purely fluke scenario, we might expect that sometime over the next 900 flips, we have to lose about 30 excess heads. This isn’t a huge probabalistic change, but 30/900 is about 3% – 3% more likely to be tails than expected completely by chance.
I know there is a logical mistake in here – because each flip should be independent of the last, but it just makes such intuitive sense…..
by cdb on Aug 3, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, there is a logical mistake
your odds are 50/50 going forward, not 50/50 from whatever the tally was when you left off.
You don’t “have to lose about 30 excess heads.” This is the fallacy.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
If airplanes crash at a rate of 1 per 1 million
And it’s been 999,999 flights since the last crash, do you get on the plane?
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
Are there snakes on it?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
more importantly, is samuel l. jackson on it?
or bruce willis’ significant other?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I have a long-standing policy to only take flights that Samuel L. Jackson is on as well
For precautionary reasons of course
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 3, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
just to clarify
I understand the fallacy – but isn’t this basically saying that ’he’s due for a hit’ or something along those lines?
by cdb on Aug 3, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
someone is never "due" for a hit...
he always has the same chance of getting a hit. Eventually he’ll get one, but he’s not any more “due” after 5 hits in a row than he is after going 0 for 10.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 3, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Only if Harrison Ford is on the plane.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
"Get Off My Plane!"
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Surely HF doesn't capitalize all those words.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
this is known as the Gambler's Fallacy, cdb
and has lost many millions of people many trillions of dollars over the years….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
links
first step is to try just pasting the link into the post, then hit preview to see if it works
if that didnt work your second step is to hit the “link” icon which looks like a chain at the top of the post (next to the pitcture) then paste in the URL and hit ok then type something to show up such as “link” or “here” and then hit preview to see if it works
then hit post
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I find it easier to type the word...
highlight it, click on the link button, then paste the link. But to each his own.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Boggs vs Wellemeyer
In Boggs last start, he got into trouble in a bunch of innings both by bad luck and by walking batters.
My question is: is the difference between Wellemeyer and Boggs their abilities to throw their changeups? I know we go on and on about Dave Duncan thinking the changeup is the work of the devil, but Todd is completely useless with his changeup because he can’t throw it for strikes.
Does Bogg throw his changeup for more strikes than Todd?
I disagree with your premise.
The changeup doesn’t have to be thrown for strikes, and in fact, Todd missed with his change over the heart of the plate and got hammered this year. When he was throwing it well, down, outside, he was getting some sick swinging strikes, but he gave up a few monstrous home runs on it as well. The changeup is the reason he’s been so bad this season. It was above average last season- this season it’s cost 12 runs, more than an entire win!
As for a comparison to Boggs, the main difference is that Boggs fastball has been good, while Todd’s has been horrible, and Boggs change has been “meh” compared to Welley’s being “argh!”
15=/=25
In general, they both lack control
The difference is (so far anyway) when Boggs misses, he generally misses out of the zone. Welle misses over the fat part of the plate.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
and boggs throws a harder, better fastball
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Neither of them have enough control to be effective starters.
I really think PJ should be starting in place of Boggs simply because he is not going to walk a batter an inning. That and 27 strikeout in his last two starts is a good thing.
I've heard that Colby
has lost 20 lbs. in the past month from a friend w/ no connections, just saying not trying to claim anything. Is this true? And is there any reason to be alarmed? Normally I wouldn’t believe what I heard but Colby has been out way more than he should have been. What’s up?
if he stopped eating before he goes to bed because of his acid reflux issue or whatever it is
he would lose weight
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 3, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
20 in a month?
That’s scary.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I certainly don't want to claim that number is true
But like I said I was wondering if people in the know had heard anything. I wonder if he has lost some weight or had other health issues and that may be why he’s in this slump and Ankiel has baseically replaced him as the starting CF
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Aug 3, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
he has a bad heel for the last week or so
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 3, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems like it's true.
This is shocking news and it points to something seriously wrong with him.
Colby Rasmus July 5th.
Colby Rasmus August 1st.
Okay, if this actually happened there would be something seriously wrong with Colby- DL if not hospital stay worthy wrong. If he stopped eating at night he might lose a few pounds a month, but 20 is astronomical and doesn’t seem possible without more substantial evidence.
15=/=25
by hazel on Aug 3, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ok well this makes me feel a lot better
Sorry if I drummed up any fear. I just knew the folks here are smarter than my real life Cards fans and could probably dispel awful rumors.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Aug 3, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
210-190=20
Rookie center fielder Colby Rasmus of the St. Louis Cardinals started spring training at 210 pounds. And his batting average before the All-Star break had risen into the .280s. Both have dropped now, and he doesn’t feel very good about either.
Rasmus, six for his last 58 overall, is three for 38 since the All-Star break, with one of those hits an infield hit and another a broken-bat, ninth-inning single which tied a game the Cardinals would win in 15 innings. A stomach ailment which has been attended to with medicine and a different diet has conspired to drop his weight to the 190-pound level.
not a complete
fabrication. now maybe he lost some of the weight before this past month, but he did lose a lot of weight in a few months.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Yeesh.
Not as scary if it’s not in one month. Still sucks, though.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I was right
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 3, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't he get a buzz cut in there?
That’s at least 5 lbs of hair.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
pretty awesome
that you managed to find a skeleton with a swollen left heel.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
by SleepyCA on Aug 3, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
StL Post Dispatch
stltoday.com articles have said much the same, I think it was 210 down to 190 from the stomach problem he had last month that had him change his diet.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
REDS REDS REDS REDS
REDS REDS REDS REDS
REDS REDS REDS REDS
REDS REDS REDS REDS
REDS REDS REDS REDS
V, b.
communist panic, maybe?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Orel Hershiser:
“Looking at the resumes of the Cubs, they should be at the top.”
Whatever that means.
V, b.
needz to thro moar sinkerz.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 3, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
On the plus side for tomorrow...
The Mets are into their bullpen in the second inning.
by notmorganfreeman on Aug 3, 2009 7:55 PM EDT reply actions
I've sold my soul to WWL
to get my fix of Yadi. May GOB have mercy on my soul.
Now I’m gonna compound the error by reading. Turning pages and everything.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
fanposted
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and Walt.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions
casey mulligan!
The last survivor of the great righty relief purge of 2009 just got promoted to AA Springfield. For his debut he gave up a hit and struck out two in a scoreless 1 1/3 inning stint. Only two more levels to keep fooling people with his apparently unexciting stuff before he is fooling people in St. Louis, or maybe Cleveland or Oakland.
As long as he is good enough to fool the batters with unexciting stuff,
then he can fool me all he wants.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 3, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
i look forward to his next dance revue
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i smell danup's latest pitching prospect man-crush.
Do we need to go through your history with these guys, danup? He’s just gonna break your heart.
According to my “girl manual” the next step is to eat haagen daas out of the carton and watch “roman holiday” and paint our toenails.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 4, 2009 1:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
if it means, in the end, that we watch roman holiday
I consider it a worthwhile endeavor. never has a man-crush segued so perfectly into an actual crush.
The old-style movie infatuation trickles to the surface again.
I’m shocked it hasn’t become a mainstay of danup posts, truly.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Actual crush...
Are we talking about Audrey Hepburn or Gregory Peck?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
gregory peck might have been man-crush material if I'd stuck it out in journalism school
because who doesn’t want to be hard-boiled and cynical in an old-movie kind of way?
but let’s just say that were this oldmovieblognation I’d be writing red baron-sized posts about breakfast at tiffany’s.
and i would be reading said posts
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Mulligan
is a chubby little cherub.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2009 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Does Tony use his all right handed line up tonight? Does Albert take an extended rest?
What is the latest on Ryan? Tough to keep up sometimes when you’re far away
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
Boog is supposed to be back tonight...
It wouldn’t shock me for Khalil to play 3rd, shifting DeRosa to right and Ludwick to center. That would make for an all-righthanded lineup, but I’m not sure Santana is a guy you want Khalil taking a start against right now. Otherwise, I guess Dick or Colby will play, but everyone else will be righthanded.
V, b.
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