Pitching FTW
Our starting pitching is ridiculous... we are first in the major leagues in FIP. And it's not really that close. The Braves are second with 3.72 FIP, but the Cards are one of the most successful teams in the majors with a 3.54 FIP (5th in winning percentage at 20 games over .500). As expected, we have the highest ground ball percentage, and we have the 3rd lowest line drive %. So our starting pitching is one of the main strengths of the team, but not so much for our relief pitching.
By FIP, our relievers drop waaaaay behind the 1st place pace, the Cards bullpen being 20th in the majors. By ERA, the picture looks a little more forgiving since we are 13th overall. The bullpen is still inducing its fair share of grounders, but batters are teeing off on them for a 19% line drive rate, among the worst in the majors. It's not all that bad though, since the BABIP is .278 for the bullpen, but that's probably not completely sustainable. Thankfully the starters have been getting the bulk of the work, since our bullpen has pitched the fewest pitches and been involved in the fewest innings in baseball. Literally, the starters have by far pitched the most innings of any other team, and our bullpen has had by far the least amount of work. While the bullpen is vastly improved over last season, it still leaves a lot to be desired. Their HR/9 is not atrocious, but it's at 1.02, a little high I'd say. They are not striking anyone out, but the good part is that they are not walking a ton of people either. Our left on base % is ok, but of course it would be nice if we could pitch out of more tight situations. Makes those close games pretty crazy to watch!
Like last year, Kyle McClellan has been the workhorse out of the 'pen. He's pitched more than anyone else, only Ryan Franklin and Jason Motte are close. I'd like to see the guy used a little bit less, because my hunch is that he would do better if he didn't pitch as often. His FIP is 4.39, which is sort of scary to me, and I can understand now why people get a little nervous when he is pitching lately (still, his ERA is pretty decent). It's probably a secret to no one that His Suckiness, Ryan Franklin, and the Lefty Extraordinaire, Trevor Miller, are the saviors of the bullpen (and to a lesser extent, The Hawk has been very helpful as of late). Maybe I shouldn't forget Brad Thompson, since he's pitched a decent amount of innings, and his FIP is better than Hawksworth's. Reyes has also been pretty reliable, but has been quite average with a FIP around 4 (.1 WAR). Personally, once Lohse is back, I'd like to see Boggs get some bullpen time, but 2 innings pitched from the bullpen is not much to go by (although a 1.59 FIP looks nice).
We all know this team would be no where without Wainwright, Pineiro, and of course Carp... but Smoltz so far has cruised to a .63 FIP in 11 innings. Those 4 pitchers are worth nearly 14 WAR together (the team total being 15.5). Very nice! I think down the stretch, maybe we could use Smoltzy and maybe Boggs out of the pen if it gets tight.
So, to wrap this up, the Cardinals pitching is 4th in the majors in FIP, and 3rd in ERA, and 3rd in WHIP. For contrast, our hitting is almost identical to the Cubs in wOBA! 21st in the majors, behind the Cubs, never would have guessed that.
9 recs |
41 comments
Comments
as usual
I forgot to mention that I used fangraphs, whoops!
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
behind the Cubs.
ugh. are you serious?
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Aug 29, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yep
our hitting in wOBA is .002 lower than the cubs
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice
I was poking around @ B-R earlier, looking at how the Cards are doing relative to other teams in the majors.
BATTING
R/G 4.42 (22nd; avg = 4.65)
HR 132 (16th; avg = 136)
BB 426 (19th; avg = 439)
K 810 (9th fewest; avg = 881)
OBP .329 (19th; avg = .333)
SLG .415 (16th; avg = .420)
OPS .744 (21st; avg = .753)
OPS+ 96 (16th; avg = 97)
GIDP 100 (19th most; avg = 100)
I’d be interested in seeing these stats just during the Holliday era. But overall in 2009, we need Albert Pujols having possibly the best season of his career so far to bring us up to league average.
FWIW, one reason the Cards are winning these games is that their defense has been very strong. We’re tied w/ Cincinatti for 1st in the majors in CS% (a whopping 39%—league avg is 27%). We’re 1st in the majors in assists (1495—average is 1283), chances (5036—avg is 4785), tied w/ Houston (?!) for 2nd in double plays (136—avg is 119), and tied for 1st w/ Cincy and the Dodgers for fewest passed balls (3—avg is 7).
Basically, we’re looking at a killer rotation, an iffy bullpen, and an underacheiving offense. The Cards’ hitters have to adjust; they’ve either got to figure out how to take more walks or hit more homers (preferably both but let’s not get carried away here).
As Bernie said a couple days ago, this team has not even come anywhere near to getting all cylinders to fire at the same time. Imagine if Ludwick, Rasmus, Molina, and DeRo all started hitting for a month….
by nota bene on Aug 29, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
holy crap
our OPS is horrible, and we hardly take any walks. how did our plate discipline go from being good in ’08 to being this bad in ’09?
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we've had so much roster turnover this year
that I’d like to see a breakdown of these numbers for the different lineup periods. I’d like to say that a disproportionate share of the PAs in the early going were being taken by the likes of Thurston/Barden/Greene/Greene/Duncan/Ankiel/Stav/etc, whereas more recently those PAs have been going to guys like Holliday, DeRo, Lugo, and Rasmus.
But it’s not like we’ve been scoring a shit-ton of runs since the Holliday trade. Ludwick’s in a slump, Holliday wasn’t going to hit .500 forever, DeRo’s wrist might be influencing his numbers, Ankiel’s mini-revival is over, etc.
FWIW Ankiel, Skip, Yadi, Rasmus, Thurston, Kaheel, and Holliday (?!) are seeing fewer pitches/PA than league average and I’d recommend those guys work on just seeing more pitches. (With the exception of Holliday, I guess, who probably should just keep wearing the same underwear to the ballpark or whatever until he stops hitting….)
Anyway, your question is a good one and I don’t think we can really just point to roster construction as the answer. I think it’s been the result of a deliberate push from the manager/coaching staff to swing more often earlier in counts. The aggressiveness hasn’t helped; in fact it seems to be hurting. Ankiel in particular
by nota bene on Aug 29, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
Thurston/Barden/Greene/Greene/Duncan/Ankiel/Stav/etc these guys are warping the overall numbers on the offense for sure… the offense is not as easily pinned down as our pitching this year. was sort of surprised the bullpen isn’t doing any better than that.
But the main thing that has annoyed me this season has been the defense, but now that Boog has stepped it up on defense, it’s a little bit less of an issue I guess.
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: defense
Skip has improved, Lugo’s OK, Ryan is playing more. I think Ryan responds well to getting all those chances from Pineiro.
Holliday is an upgrade over Duncan defensively, although maybe not much by as much as we’d like. Rasmus has taken time in center from Ankiel, who was already a decent fielder.
I keep hearing that Thurston is a better fielder at third than DeRo, but I don’t believe it.
by nota bene on Aug 29, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they're probably about equal
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what the UZR numbers say
my impression is that they’re about even range wise but DeRo’s got the superior arm.
by nota bene on Aug 29, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Derosa over Thurston in the lineup any day heh
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my feeling
Thurston probably has more range but DeRo has the advantage in throwing and glovework. I’m guessing they’re probably similar fielders.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 30, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Booñgeiro
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 29, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and yes
Cards plate discipline is really bad…. does anyone know where to look up P/PA? they use to have that at espn but it looks like they made their stats section more simplified or something.
btw, we are really slow… we are 25th in SB%. and in August, we didn’t score very many runs, one of the teams with the least runs scored for the month
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
at least we are faster than the aging Cubs though
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
P/PA
is here, scroll down to “Team Pitches Batting”.
For some reason the table gets all fubar if you try to sort by P/PA.
by nota bene on Aug 29, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah
BR is pretty difficult to navigate compared to fangraphs, etc
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two words: Hal McRae
Carp (or Waino) for NL Cy Young!
by zoomzoomj88 on Aug 31, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not sure if I'm reading this right, but
our fielding for the season almost canceled out the hitting: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=6&season=2009&month=0
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll admit to not being able to make heads or tails out of that page
by nota bene on Aug 29, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
our UZR is negative 11 point something or other… and the team WAR is 13 point something. eh?
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All that page is doing
is adding up the totals of all the players on the team, but that doesn’t make it an accurate representation of our ballclub. As you can see, the Rays lead the majors in WAR, yet are in third place. Part of this is playing in the AL east, and part of it is this page not factoring in pitching, which has been their Achilles heel all season. That’s probably why the Brewers are up there too, while the Giants and White Sox are in the bottom third when they have pretty good pitching staffs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 29, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your avatar is frighteningly awesome
Also, it’s Trever Miller.
Or maybe it’s just frightening.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 29, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ah dang
forgot he used an e
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the best part is that brendan is kinda sorta doing on A-OK sign
but carp’s face in the background is definitely frightening
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
Who would take Duncan’s place should he leave the organization. I know it’s a very depressing thought to realize, but we may see an end to the days where project pitchers turn to into solid ones.
Man, with this outfield, need to get rid of that Rasmus, no Ankiel, wait no, Rasmus wait...To hell with Ankiel FREE KOBE RAMSIS
by Taskmaster on Aug 30, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I say they just stick with his philosophy
and keep pitching low in the zone when they have to, but not be limited to just that. depends on the pitcher.
as far as who should take his place, what the heck is John Tudor doing these days?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 31, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd vote for a guy like John Tudor or Jamie Moyer
Guys who had to learn how to pitch and couldn’t just blow people away.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
by thepainguy on Sep 1, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the bullpen FIP
If you take Motte’s stats out of the equation?
by olddomination on Aug 31, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
since he's pitched the third most out of anyone
they would probably be like 15th instead of 20th I’m guessing something like that
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 1, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can figure it our yourself Chitown
FIP formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP + 3.15
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 1, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll work on figuring that out tonight
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 1, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks, posted below
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 1, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here have a seriousth rec
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 1, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
rec'd
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 1, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm disappointed in you people
he spelled 6ly wrong & he still got 4 rec’s.
/you can’t even spell your own name right asshole, shut up!
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Sep 1, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
without the sauce
if we hold the sauce, our bullpen is much more tasty with a 3.53 FIP
turns out that Motte’s number of innings and his high FIP being taken out of the equation, would make our bullpen second only to the Braves bullpen (which I had no idea was that good).
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 1, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So... replace with Sauce with a portion of Smoltz in the post-season and we're good?
I love it when a plan comes together.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 2, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 3, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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