But what if Franklin sucks next year like he does this year, granted that would have to be a lot of luck, but what would he cost if he turned in another (40 saves and sub 2 ERA)? I don’t have a clue…any guesses?

As for Todd, my point isn’t that he’ll never be good. It’s that he isn’t any good right now

but that’s very much my point – how can you say that when he’s not been given a chance? He’s pitched 10 innings in the majors this year, it’s not like he came up and was here for as long as Jason Motte and sucked for that period. I was just making the point that you can’t say “Todd sucks now” because he’s been excellent in AAA (4 scoreless innings for the Indians’ affiliate now too) and hasn’t had a chance in MLB yet.

The only reason the bullpen is mediocre instead of Washington National-esque is two retreads – Miller and Franklin – picked up with much skepticism around these parts. In fact it’s a shame we didn’t resign a third retread – Russ Springer.

I’ve generally been a Franklin fan, I think he seems a decent guy, and I think certain folks on this blog have consistently under-rated him since we got him – he’s had two excellent seasons and one poor one, which, on balance, is pretty good. I liked the Miller signing (as, I think, everyone else did – I don’t recall any skepticism at all about that one, especially given the eventual price we ended up paying). I’d have liked Springer back but the price he eventually got would’ve been prohibitive, I think. He’s someone I’d kick the tires on next year as I think we could get him for <$2m perhaps.

In any case, that’s all by-the-by; I like Franklin, and I’d be happy to see him back next year (which we already had under control via a team option) and potentially the year after. I just don’t see why we couldn’t wait until next year for the extension. He WILL be worse next year, and that’s just a fact. He’s having a career-year performance-wise (at 36) this year, AND has been astoundingly lucky, so his numbers will go south next year, so we’ve given him this extension too early AND when he’s at a career-peak of performance. Mozeliak seems to like giving players extensions/contracts based on performance peaks, and I think it shows a fundamental lack of understanding of a pretty simple baseball concept.

I expect Franklin could be worth that contract in 2011, but there’s no reason why we couldn’t just wait until then. Guaranteeing non-elite relief pitchers who are pushing 40 additional future money just doesn’t seem too smart to me.

Given this state of affairs, it’s kind of amazing that people continue to believe that our system can churn out good-enough relief pitchers in the future. It’s as if this belief is part of the canon and shall not be discredited regardless of how badly Motte-Kinney-Perez-Todd-McClellan perform

Why shouldn’t they? I think you’re being unfair both to the org and the players in question. Also, it’s not like there’s some magic hoodoo-dust surrouonding St Louis such that every promising young reliever who comes here is going to turn into a pumpkin as soon as they make it to Busch. You’re not only basing future predictions (how our current prospects will perform) based on unrelated past events (how other, previous prospects performed) but selling the players in question short.

Let’s look at each example:
1) Motte. Has sucked this year. But he was good last year and I think it’s still pretty clear there’s a major league pitcher in there somewhere. I think you’re giving up on him WAY too early.

2) Kinney. Sucked this year, and I don’t think he’s going to amount to much, but the guy has been injured for like TWO YEARS, and never was a major prospect to begin with. It’s not inconceivable he could turn things around, but like I say, it’s not like he’s a high-calibre relief prospect like Perez or Todd was, or like Eduardo Sanchez, or Scott Bittle or someone might be now.

3) Todd. Dude, the guy has pitched 10 INNINGS in the majors. It’s utterly ridiculous to write him off. That’s just dumb. He’s been very good at AAA, was never an absolute top-end prospect, but he’s going to have a decent major league career. Check back on him in two years before you write off a guy who dominated at AAA based on a couple of innings.

4) Perez. Ermmm, Perez has been really good. And promises to be better. He’s got a 3.49 ERA and a 3.97 FIP in 80-odd big league innings. He has top-end stuff. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning this year. He’s been better this year (by every useful measure) than every Cards reliever bar Franklin. The guy’s good already, and is only going to get better.

5) KMac. Never a top prospect. He had a good ST last year and was vaulted up from AA (where he wasn’t considered more than a likely middle-relief guy). He’s a middle reliever, not a late-inning guy, IMO, and does that role reasonably well. He’s struggled this year but still hasn’t been a disaster or anything. Career 3.70 ERA and 4 FIP – that’s pretty decent, for a 7th inning-type guy, especially one who was drafted in the 25th round of the draft. Non-prospect turns into a serviceable major league bullpen arm and you think that’s evidence that the system is BAD at turning out effective relief pitchers?

Also, I should point out that Brad Thompson, when he’s actually left in relief (and not ridiculously made to start by a manager who doesn’t seem to understand he only has one plus pitch) has a FIP of about 4 and an ERA in the high-3s. Seems to me he’s been a useful reliever over his tenure with the club, even if he is slightly surplus to requirements now.

and if we’re going to pay a premium to have quality defensive players, we might as well have pitchers that put the ball into play. FIP is nice for normalizing to all things being equal, but things aren’t equal. We’re presupposing them playing in front of our defense.

Edmonds was under contract and asked for a trade because of the plan for reduced playing time. The Cards ended up paying $2mm of his $8mm contract for him to play for SD, then the Cubs ended up with him for $400k.

A similar comparison would be to Springer who signed with Oakland for $3.3 mm (with performance bonuses of $50,000 each for 35, 45, 52, 57, 62, 67 games) after not receiving a contract from the Cards. Details per Cot’s Contracts

If he’s horrible, tell Tony that he can either push him to the back of the rotation, or DFA him.

Regardless, it’s not like Motte looks ready to take over the high-leverage innings just yet.

but I think perhaps basing your argument on last year is a bit misleading – I think it’s pretty clear he HAS changed his skillset significantly this year by relying on the cutter, dumping the shitty slider and inducing more GBs.

why the hell would we take the “three year average” of his contract? That’s like saying, “Oh, we gave Lohse $40m for 4 years but we got him during his career year for only $4m, so overall it’s $44m for 5 years”. That one year he pitched for $4m (and the two years of Franklin we ALREADY OWN) are not part of the deal, and there’s no reason to take them into account when discussing the new deal.

Just because we get a pitcher cheap one year does not mean it’s “OK” for us then to overpay them for the next year. That’s crazy logic.

I can’t keep my years straight

I know Jor-El has developed The Sinker From Hell™, but I wasn’t aware that Frankie had found a new pitch.