Smoltz	Carrillo
4.94 FIP	11.49 FIP

Is it me or does there just seem to be an insane amount of hype about this game? I should point out that I've always been a tremendous John Smoltz fan. Great fastball. Great slider. Great splitter. Hard thrower. Fighter. Let's keep in mind, however, that the man is 42 years old, has thrown exactly 68 innings in 2 years, and hasn't pitched in 17 days -- when the Yankees blew him up. I'm looking forward to seeing what he's got as well but it's important that we remember that we only need him to be serviceable. He's our 4th starter (w/ Lohse now on the DL) and Lohse has been barely above replacement level this year and we have an 8 game lead on the Cubs. If Smoltz gives us 5 innings and 3 runs, I'll be satisfied. It helps that he's facing the Padres in his first game.

Carrillo has walked 6 and struck out 3 in 8 big league innings this year. He's a right hander who hasn't even been good in AAA in 3 years -- totaling about 34 innings -- and wasn't dominant for the Padres' AA team this season. Apparently we should look for a fastball, curve and changeup from Carrillo. He's a guy who has had pretty good success getting ground balls in the minors even if his K rate is pretty low.

I'm excited to watch this one.