Anatomy of a Streak
by chuckb on Aug 22, 2009 11:17 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintThe most annoying thing I’ve heard argued about the team’s winning streak has to do w/ the team’s "grit" or "fight" now. We have more come-from-behind wins than we did before so we’re battling better; the team now has that "never give up" attitude (Play a Hard Nine!!!) that it didn’t have earlier in the season. Has a bigger pile of BS ever been uttered by anyone? The team has more come-from-behind wins b/c we have a much better offense now than we had 2 months ago. We don’t have Thurston at 3rd, Greene at SS, Duncan in LF and Skip playing 2B every day against lefties. It’s insulting to the team to imply that they had no fight or grit or toughness or whatever you want to call it earlier in the season. We just didn’t have any hitters. They were playing as hard as they could, for crying out loud! It’s not like they weren’t trying; they just weren’t very good!
Now, the team’s offense is considerably better. I don’t believe for a minute that they’re trying any harder than they did in May but their efforts will provide more b/c they’re just much better hitters now. Prior to the Holliday acquisition, the team’s offensive splits were .254/.325/.409 – and that includes Pujols’s contribution. Since July 23, the team’s hitting .278/.345/.438. Of course, that’s not all Holliday. Mark DeRosa has provided plenty of offense and Julio Lugo’s been terrific at the plate. It’s a big step up from Duncan to Holliday, Thurston to DeRosa, and Skip to Lugo against lefties. That’s a third of our lineup against southpaws and Lugo’s played some short as well. He’s a better offensive player than Brendan Ryan. Let’s see how the major position players have performed since the Holliday acquisition – which was the last of the 3, by the way.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molina | .305 | .380 | .378 |
| Pujols | .280 | .405 | .510 |
| Skip | .239 | .308 | .352 |
| Ryan | .356 | .424 | .508 |
| DeRosa | .242 | .311 | .432 |
| Holliday | .402 | .444 | .686 |
| Rasmus | .214 | .308 | .286 |
| Ludwick | .228 | .280 | .326 |
| Lugo | .307 | .361 | .507 |
| Ankiel | .297 | .308 | .500 |
I guess Albert, Skip, Colby, and Ludwick aren’t happy w/ the Holliday trade, are they Dan and Al? Clearly the biggest "jolts" have come from Holliday and Lugo themselves. Before the Holliday trade, the team was averaging 4.37 R/G. Since July 23, they’re averaging 4.81 R/G. Add half a run a game to the offense and we’re going to win more games.
How about the pitching? Before the trade, the team’s ERA was 3.75. We were giving up 4.08 R/G. Since the trade, the team’s ERA is 3.68 and we’re giving up 3.81 R/G. Our pre-trade FIP was 4.05 and our post-trade FIP is 3.83. So the pitching’s slightly better as well though that’s probably colored by the fact that Carp missed 6 weeks pre-trade and has made all of his post-trade starts. Nevertheless, a slight improvement.
It would appear that the defense is better as well, as we’re giving up fewer unearned runs per game than we did pre-trade, though that could be a result of better pitching as well. Actually, according to UZR, DeRosa’s been worse at 3rd than Thurston has been but it’s really difficult to make judgments like that based on such a small sample. Still, it’s not hard to believe that we’re better off defensively at 2nd when Lugo plays and in LF w/ Holliday as opposed to Duncan.
All in all, the main reason for the run the team’s been on has been the improvement of the offense, although the relatively weak schedule hasn’t hurt at all. It’s also worth noting that while we’ve been on an 18-8 run, the Cubs have gone 13-14. I doubt that they’re struggling b/c they’re demoralized by the fact that we’ve made 3 trades and they’ve made 1. It probably has more to do w/ their injuries, particularly to the pitching staff, but the fact that we’ve added 5.5 games to our lead in less than a month is impressive nonetheless. Just 1 more late-nighter and then we can go back to getting some decent shut-eye at night!
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God
I didnt know that Colby and Ludwick were in such a bad slump, but with Holliday, Lugo, and Boog playing so well i guess that has overshadowed those two
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Not to take away from what you just said but....
I do think a positive club house does have an effect on performance on the field. I just think of my own work experiences. I have always performed better in a work environment that is positive, upbeat, and that I enjoy my co-workers. It just creates a situation with less pressure and stress.
And to piggyback
regarding the Cubs and the opposite mood. Yeah, they’ve had injuries, but if you get rid of great guys to work with (DeRosa by all accounts) and bring in guys that aren’t ‘good clubhouse guys’ (like Bradley, by all accounts) going to work can be a chore, and you become a ‘clock puncher’. We’ve all been in those environments as well, and it doesn’t matter hoe much you make, a crappy work environment rubs off on a person in a negative way just as much as a good work environment does in a positive way.
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
DeRosa acts like a parolee
Like every few seconds he’s thinking “freeeeeeeeeeedommmmmmmmmm!”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
good examples...
but my guess is that you guys aren’t working for a managerial team getting paid millions of dollars to (among other things) make sure that the “work environment” leads to the best work performance. If LaRussa, Duncan, Oquendo and others can’t keep the players happy/positive/performing (in the middle of a competitive dog-fight for the central lead, btw) then what are we paying them for?
by duncans_army on Aug 22, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Take money out of the equation
and I don’t think it’s LaRussa’s/Duncan’s job to ensure the players are ‘happy’ per se, but it is Their job to give the players the best chance to succeed. I think you need to respect your boss/manager more than you need to like him/her, but that’s just me.
Your work environment is what you the individual make of it. And it’s a lot tougher to be positive about your environment if you work with a team/section/office of jagoffs, or if you have the proverbial ‘one in every crowd’ guy that pisses and moans no matter what. If you have a great job with great people, you’re not really working. If you have a crappy job and/or crappy co-workers then everything is a grind, and it’s tougher to succeed.
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
I really tend to agree with this
but it’s not a huge factor in baseball imo. of course it’s not as insignificant as it’s made out to be sometimes, but replacing bad hitters with good ones far outshadows the effects of the environment, especially when we’re talking about people “working” in a very new ballpark with all the amenities. it’s not like they’re working in a really bad or overcrowded office space with an underqualified manager. those work spaces would actually take away from the team’s attitude, whereas having a nice place to work in just allows you to do your job without worry.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
no one has ever accused Bradley
of being a “bad clubhouse guy.” By all accounts, he’s a great teammate. He goes crazy at umps sometimes and maybe doesn’t play all the time, but no one has ever accused him of being selfish, not being a team player or being a “cancer in the clubhouse.”
I base that off of his manager
calling him a POS. Yeah, maybe it’s a ‘consider the source’ statement, but when your manager calls you out like that, it’s quite an indictment.
Would you want him on the Cardinals? I wouldn’t.
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
That .388 OBP would look nice in front of Albert and Holliday
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
i would depending on the contract
but i dont like him better than ludwick or holiday…
1 part Douchebag, 3 part Hipster!
I wouldn't because our outfield is stacked
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
to add to that...
I don’t see any evidence that players aren’t in a better mood since adding Holliday. I can not think of anyone who wouldn’t be in a better mood; unless they were friends with one of the pitchers to leave for hollliday or DeRosa. (like Motte, who was good friends with Perez)
I also don’t blame ownership for trying to sell it to the fans that this has made the club house happier.
But I do agree that just being “happier” will make players play better. It may effect a few people. But on a Tony LaRussa team I don’t think players would get away just gliding through season because they felt like it. (save yadi running to first. :-))
I can agree on that
We don’t really have access to the club house so who knows how a new guy affects the club house. For all we know Thurston is the goofy guy that in the club house that keeps everyone loose.
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 22, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I think it is obvious that the “atmosphere” has changed. Both in regards to the team, and the fans.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
Hi Dan or Al!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Thanks for the compliment ( note to self, don't joke around with Sooner)
I actually agree with you and Dan & AL on the team atmosphere, but if I hear how the fans’ attitude has improved one more time I am gonna puke. Yeah, we fans that follow the Cardinals and pack that stadium have always been the type to lay back sitting on our hands. It is about time that new stadium got a bit of a buzz going in it. It has been dead all damn season!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Honeslty
going to games in May was kind of a drag. Getting rid of Duncan and Thurston losing his de-facto starting position has helped tremendously. There is only one spot in the lineup now that I have zero confidence in, and he only plays about half the time (and he surprises me from time to time). (Thyme.)
Shut up, Fritz™.
Yes it has
It has gone from one of bad players to good players. Confidence soars with good players on your team, and the effect if any of “atmosphere” is about 1/1000 that of going from the production of Chris Duncan to the production of Matt Holliday.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Aug 22, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I do think the team looks different and looks a bit looser
But that’s not why they’re doing better. It’s because the top-three starters are really really good and Holliday/Lugo have swatted the ball. Rasmus, Ludwick, Pujols, and Skip are all down (although w/ Albert down is a relative term).
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
so are they winning b/c they're happy
or happy b/c they’re winning? My guess is it’s the latter and they didn’t just suddenly put on a happy face and decide to start playing harder b/c the team traded for Holliday.
by chuckb on Aug 22, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"Just 1 more late-nighter..."
Thank God, I need my sleep.
I can sleep when I am dead
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Aug 22, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I just slept from 5am to 3pm
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I am gonna feel it after tonight
I stayed awake drinking til 3, was up at 6 and am about ready to crack open another franklin.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
keep drinking, cause once you stop, that's when trouble starts
i was up till after 7 and got up around noon. my sleep schedule is totally f’ed up right now
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Could the better post-trade pitching
also be attributed to fewer starts by Wellemeyer?
"When all's been said and done, I can say that all has been said and done."
-Steve "Lips" Kudlow, of Anvil
Also,
Wainwright a shaky first couple of months and is pitching much better now.
by alanthickefan on Aug 22, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
you should make an avatar of a red alan thicke
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think a 5th starter has won a game in about 2 months
So I’d say no.
by cloistermaximus on Aug 22, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but
we haven’t had to use a 5th starter as much either
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
by hoofhearted-pujols on Aug 22, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
the fourth starter is the new fifth starter!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 22, 2009 12:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yes, certainly
as it can a higher % of starts by Carp. I doubt that the trade has had much impact on the pitching at all, except possibly for slightly better defense.
of all the stats
i think the most interesting is that the 2 guys batting around holliday have gone downhill since he came
i think this too is some human nature, ie, trying to keep the new guy from showing you up
especially apu. this was clearly apu’s team before, and now with holliday and all the hoopla re him and his start with us, apu is pressing. ludwick has been displaced, and wants badly to show he’s no 3rd banana and is also reacting by being over aggressive. luddy has seen 4 balls in many at bats, but won’t layoff and gets a k instead of a w. they just need to settle down and enjoy the help.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
or, you know, it could be dumb luck.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 22, 2009 12:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
Don’t make me break out the chart.
He’s shown flashes of “breaking out” against certain pitchers, but he hasn’t sustained his streaks like he did in April.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
+1
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that positive clubhouse could be backfiring
That little check of Tony’s on DeRosa’s bubbly pre-game attitude was telling. They have to bear down for the stretch. August is just padding; the September schedule is not easy. If the Brewers are pissed off enough, they can easily play spoiler. The sheer number of come-from-behind wins also means the team’s falling behind early, and winning because the other team sucks will not ever be sustainable in playoff baseball. Forget the Hard Nine… where are the First Five?
It has been a long time since I’ve seen the Cardinals truly beat a good starting pitcher before his hook. No, hitting a line drive into him does not count.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
let me show you them.
Since July 24. GoogleDoc.
It’s even worse when you remove Brendan’s grand slam game.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
this would make a lot more sense
If I could graph how much of this is against the bullpen and how much is against the SP. sigh.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Still shows how
we have trouble scoring first and early, coming back from behind is exciting but you cant do it every game
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
yes. I'm not great with numbers, but that just doesn't seem sustainable.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Could you possibly make another table
showing the other teams scoring/inning to compare or make this all into a fanpost
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
if I had the time to do it...
I’m not sure what that would show. I’m only addressing their offense… Explain plz?
You could always look at their sparklines.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Curiosity really
im just wondering how much the Cards are routinely coming back from each time but i completely understand you not wanting to do it, I can see it for myself from another place
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
well, you'd have to define what you mean, numerically
as “come from behind win”. Otherwise would be hard to graph.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
6th inning or later down by 1 run or more
is what i would define it as
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
you tempted me into spreadsheets!
dirty tempter.
remind me to credit you if I get this done.
this is probably not exactly what you’re going for, but this is what I found on fangraphs: RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ RE24 for individual plays is added up to get his season total RE24.
(yeah, it would probably work better with WPA. I’ve figured out how to do this, so I think I can redo it with the top WPA plays.)
I picked a cut-off of 0.60 based on the data — it seems to be the difference between big game-changing plays and the small-ball. Pitchers duels will have far, far fewer of these plays.
In the past 26 games, Cardinals and their opponents provided us with 228 individual plays, for an average of 8.77 franklins per game. The Cards had 124 plays; opponents got us for 104 plays. Cheer-to-woe is thus 4.77 / 4.00.
Of those 124 plays by the Cardinals offense:
1st inning 9
2nd inning 8
3rd inning 7
4th inning 18
5th inning 15
6th inning 17
7th inning 18
8th inning 16
9th inning 9
bonus baseball 7
1-5 innings 57
6-bonus innings 67
27 of those plays (21.77%) were with the Cards behind. 22 (17.74%) were with the game tied. So 39.52% were with the Cards working without a lead.
(# after 6th / # games)
game tied: 11 / 22
-1 Cards: 3 / 10
-2 Cards: 5 / 9
-3 Cards: 2 / 4
-5 Cards: 1 / 2
-9 Cards: 2 / 2
So that’s me muddling through it. Suggestions welcome.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I like this a lot better than what i was thinking of
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
wpa would be better
this data might be generally useless.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
they technically needed 11 innings to get to Kershaw.
… you saying Kershaw yanked in the 4th inning is a test case for a good starting pitcher getting beat by the Cards? Coming off getting knocked around by the Diamondbacks? I’m not talking reputation. I mean, a guy with his stuff together… maybe not good stuff, but not sucking. He killed the Cards at Busch. Essentially they had 8 extra innings to figure out this guy, and figure out what they were doing wrong against him.
He also walked 2 in the 3rd. Walking 4 in 4 innings is not the Cards beating the pitcher. (Maybe the umpire….) And if my holey memory serves, there was at least one Yadi Molina Special among those at-bats… fouled off a lot of pitches to push his count up. Which is a good example of what they should do more of, instead of the pile of “struck out swinging”s I’m seeing from that game.
And yet the Cards added no insurance entering the 7th. They won because they beat the “unbeatable” closer. Again. Which is my point… that M.O. is not sustainable.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
sorry if that sounds snippy, multitasking has taken a turn for the annoying.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I dont think either
Boggs cant be called up (Right?) and Mo will be very hesitant to call up Garcia with his injuries
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
boggs can be called up
Due to injuries. But he couldn’t be called up if someone didn’t make a trip to the DL
Ah, gotcha
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
welly is about due for his 6th chance at rejoining the rotation? lol, he’s “figured some things out”.
by ball in play on Aug 22, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
he is feeling good I hear
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
"I'm feeling good and I've been working with Dave Duncan to figure out what I was doing wrong"
Whenever I hear this, I cringe. Its like using duct tape to fix your car after its been in an accident. (And believing that it will work. Who needs a perfectly aligned bumper anyway? Side mirrors? Pshaw!)
by Ray Lankford on Aug 22, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus, He is already on the Major League roster
Not like they would have to add him
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 22, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
won't be Garcia
he’s just coming off surgery and pitching in A ball. It won’t be, and shouldn’t be, him. My vote’s for Boggs, though I’d be OK w/ Hawksworth as well.
He is in triple A now.
Pitched for memphis on the 19th. gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. 4 hits, 2 HRs. 1 BB; and 9 Ks.
I don’t think it will be him.
if we have more than a seven game lead next time we need him?
Why not him?
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 22, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont think there is any reason to rush him back
because we have a 7 game lead…if we were desperate for another starter than i could see it but not now…
1 part Douchebag, 3 part Hipster!
Agreed
I predict some form bullpen start
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Aug 22, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
A guy that has had no previous problem with injuries
could possibly be going to the DL twice in a year.
Awesome
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Considering my hate for it was already as high as possible...
…that is not really the case with me. My hate has reached a horizontal asymptote.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
sonofabitch, wtf was that?
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have entered a collective funk on the trip. They are now hitting only .178 (28 for 158), enough of a concern going into the game to warrant early batting practice for a number of starters, including Pujols and right fielder Ryan Ludwick. After scoring 54 runs in the nine games before the trip, they have now scored 14 runs in five games on the trip. The Cardinals struck out 11 times Friday.
Pujols has eased into a mini-funk. Friday’s one-for-four game broke an 0-for-12 skid that has left him with two more RBIs (five) than home runs (three) in his last 12 games. Pujols, five for 28 in his last eight games, did not participate in pregame stretching or regular batting practice, though La Russa denied a physical issue was involved. Ludwick fell to one for 16 on the trip with Holliday at two for 17.
The middle four of Pujols, Holliday, Ludwick and Mark DeRosa are hitting a combined .109 on the trip.
“I’ve been jumping at it lately,‘’ Pujols said. "I don’t know about anyone else. ’’
the middle of the line has fallen off the deep end & fast. Lego looked awful in the 4th inning when he K’d & Boog didn’t steal which caused Albert to be tagged out & yell at him & shoot lazers at him with his eyes. good thing he didn’t chose the eliminate option.
anyway, i think whatever good vibes from the Lego, DeRo & Lugo trade have worn off & everyone has come crashing back down to earth. sure, they have a 7 game lead in the central. but with the middle of the order in a slump, and more importantly Albert being in a big slump since late June, they are by no means out of the woods. everything is not as sunny & rosy as it appears to be. Luddy really hasn’t been right all season long. Cody’s wasting away right before our eyes. which as led to more at bat for Dick, which has hurt them even more, especially on D. DeRo has done nothing but hit HR’s, when was his last one again?
and they still have not solved their pen problems either. Denny’s is a bust, the is still no great option to get to the single worst closer in the entire history of this great game of baseball. the 4th&5th starters are a joke. i knew that fucking 4yr contract they gave KY would bite them in the ass, i just didn’t think it’d be this season. they won’t leave Boggs alone, Welley needs to be sent out to stud in his old Kentucky home. and don’t even get me started on the smoke & mirrors that is Pinata. any second now the ghost that is inhabiting his body will be exercised and we’ll all be screwed. and never forget the 1st rule of Carp, don’t talk about Carp. any second now those bastard GOB’s can take him away from us for good.
so yeah, there’s a lot to be happy about, but there’s also a lot to be scarred about.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Aug 22, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
WASTING AWAY.
and he’ll never sell it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 22, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
goodness
what’s with the pessimism on this find day, dad?
by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 22, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
find day? do you mean fine day?
because there’s nothing fine about it. it’s a miserable, rainy saturday where i am.
to back up my thoughts with some stats, since june 12th, the last 62 games, the mang has had a negative wpa for 29 of those games, that means in only(what a bum!) 33 of those 62 games he’s been productive & didn’t actually cost the Cards the chance to win game. the Cards record for those games is 37 – 26. good for 11 games over .500, not too bad really. ah hell, here’s what he & Luddy have done since then.
Albert
70 hits
36 singles
14 doubles
1 triple
19 homers
41 walks (17IBB’s)
31 RBI’s
48 runs
25 K’s
Luddy
60 hits
37 singles
10 doubles
1 triple
9 homers (None since the 4th vs the mets)
19 walks (3IBB’s)
42 RBI’s
30 runs
42 K’s
what does it all mean? is that good or bad? i think it’s a little of both. while
Albert Pujols is in fact ridiculoushe hasn’t been as bad as i thought, nor as good as i thought. Luddy as we all know is still very streaky. it’s been over 2 weeks since his last dong. but he did have more RBI’s than Albert did over the same time & has 1 more hit. but also twice as many K’s. just think if cut his K’s in half, wow, then we’d really have something now wouldn’t we?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
There's no real way to slice up Albert's June to have him slumping then
From June 12 to June 30 he hit .386 .507 1.070, yeah that’s a 1.577 OPS. I don’t think I’d call Albert’s August a slump at .299 .420 .612 (.333 .452 .683 since the 2nd even with his last 4 games)—-the worst way I can slice his numbers is .255 .377 .441 from July 2 to August 2.
Not afraid to nitpick
right, that's why i listed just the raw data & no averages
to prove to myself & any poor soul that might walk down that path behind me, that he is not slumping. many players would be happy with those #’s for an entire season, but Albert did that in just 62 games.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
I ain't scurdd
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
But but
where are all the people who were crowing about lineup protection for Albert now???
It’s been nice having a team that never really feels out of it. Holliday has played very well and the team seems to pile on more than they used too. With some outstanding defenders (Ryan, Rasmus, Molina, Pujols) it’s a very complete team on both sides of the plate.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
"where are all the people who were crowing about lineup protection for Albert now???"
In true Staussian fashion, I’m sure that we’ll hear from those anti-“spreadsheet guys” once his average climbs above .300.
by Ray Lankford on Aug 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Now if only our bridge-the-gap righties were any good...
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Protection doesn't ONLY mean.....
That Albert should see better pitches, and therefor maintain or increase his average. It is alot more than that.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
Care to share what this a lot more is?
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Please dont start this again
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
I take back my statement ( just this one time, because I like polite people)
but manSooner , geez, you could have some great comments if you wouldn’t leave us hangin’
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Thank you matty
its just I really dont want this to end up as all the others have(we get completely off topic and then theres name calling and “unmeasureables”)
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Great, so now protection doesn’t mean that he should hit better?
This is one of the dumber things you’ve said.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Aug 22, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
pretection means...
he should get more pitches to hit because teams are less willing just to IBB him. Because Holliday will pick up those RBIs. I haven’t seen Holliday’s numbers with Allbert on lately. But I know it was pretty good a week or two ago.
Albert seems to be getting more pitches to hit. Which means he should hit better. But he still has to hit them. Which he hasn’t.
So right when he starts to get better pitching
he slumps? That’s awfully convenient.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
This assumes I agree that he's getting better pitches
which I don’t without proof. Someone with pitch f/x skills should be able to look at that though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
he started "slumping"
right around the All Star game. Also, I’m not sure it is a good thing. Because before it seems he was either getting IBB or they were nibbling around him and he would kill the nervous mistakes. Albert is getting himself out a lot more lately it seems. I should break down his %swings of balls out of the zone. But we are about to leave for dinner with the mother in law..
before the ASG.
also, good luck.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
have the IBBs been replaced by HBPs?
6ly. maybe just my perception, but does every staff we’re facing suddenly have control problems? that whole Brad Thompson thing has effed us up… Motte can prove useful with an off-speed special. “He didn’t mean it! He’s always been crazy! And he’s been sucking lately!”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
So basically
There’s absolutely no way to ever win the “protection” debate. Elaborate statistical analysis that shows a hitter doesn’t hit better with “protection” obviously can’t do it; then when the long held belief that Albert with protection=SuperAlbert finally gets tested: he doesn’t hit better, but it’s still not enough. What will it take to end this?
I’ve never understood the theory anyway. If more fastballs/strikes against a certain hitter means they are going to get on base less, then why wouldn’t pitchers already be doing that? Someone really needs to explain why pitchers would use something less than an (attempt at the) optimal pitch mix for getting a hitter out based on who is hitting behind him.
Good hitters in a lineup=good lineup, bad hitters in a lineup=worse lineup.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Aug 22, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Money quote:
If more fastballs/strikes against a certain hitter means they are going to get on base less, then why wouldn’t pitchers already be doing that?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Who says OBP has to go down?
But let’s assume it does…..the theoretical increase in slugging percentage should more than make up for it, in terms of OPS.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
If a pitcher changes his pitching approach
And OBP doesn’t decline and power increases, he’s doing it wrong.
Not afraid to nitpick
I thought he were discussing.....
That Albert “should” be seeing more hittable pitches than before. So assuming he isn’t walking as much, b/c he is being thrown more strikes, then I’d expect his slugging to go up, b/c some of those extra hits are going to be more than singles (BB’s).
That is why pitchers pitch around guys in certain situations, b/c a single/BB is alot better than a 2B/HR in that situation. Teams can’t do that as much now, b/c we have a guy hitting .313/.393/.507 behind him, and not .262/.325/.455.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
And my point is
That in all but a few situations, Albert isn’t going to get pitched any differently than he did before. You’re either IBBing him/unintentional-intentionalBBing him, or you’re doing the best you can to get him out. Yes, I agree they will not IBB him as much (which I would actually argue is a bad thing in some sense).
To further refine the point, even if they do pitch him differently in some small way, it won’t affect Albert’s hitting to any level of perceptible significance (there’s simply an overwhelming, inarguable amount of statistical research to demonstrate that).
Holliday’s improvement to this team is about his production being better than Chris Duncan’s production, which is a HUGE improvement.
Not afraid to nitpick
Isn't the simple fact....
that Albert is going to get more AB’s to swing the bat going to “affect his hitting to some level?” It doesn’t have to get better, but when you are “good”, you want that player to get more swings, if you are a fan of his team, no?
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
Walks are pretty much always a good thing
It made me happy when they IBBed him 90% of the time. Pujols being an extra runner with Ludwick up is a better thing up than Pujols -1 baserunner.
Not afraid to nitpick
If Holliday offers lineup protection for Albert
than Albert should be producing more. I don’t really care if it’s power or on base percentage; the basic premise (and if you’re arguing it’s something else than you’re evading the topic by not using the common understanding) is that Holliday’s presence should improve Pujols ability to impact the game. Albert should be BETTER with Holliday behind him.
Pre-Holliday: .328/.450/.711
Post-Holliday: .279/.405/.500
How in the world can you spin that? Albert has been categorically worse in every facet of offense since Holliday has arrived. Holliday does not provide anything resembling lineup protection.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
It doesn't mean he will though.....
He still has to go out and perform, and to date, he hasn’t at the same level.
Some other things that “protection” means to me:
- Albert should see more pitches, which in the longrun, should be a good thing. His BB rate has dipped since the Holliday trade, so either he is seeing more strikes, or he is swinging at more balls.
- That Albert doesn’t have to do it all himself, and when he is in the middle of it, it doesn’t have to be a HR. Albert knows that if he is leading off the 9th of a tie game, he doesn’t have to go for the HR. He can get on base, swipe 2nd, and let another VERY good hitter bring him in. He couldn’t do that before.
- It means that when Albert struggles, the lineup doesn’t have to b/c we have another very good hitter that can “carry us.” We didn’t really have that before, save a couple of massive Luddy streaks where he knocked everything out of the park.
- It means that the lineup should turnover more frequently. Teams now can/have chosen to pitch around BOTH Albert and Holliday.
It means alot of things, and probably something different to everybody.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
- No proof.
- So Albert decides to hit singles and doubles rather than a HR? He consciously decreases his production?
- That’s just called having a good lineup.
- That’s just called having a good lineup.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Brendan's got to factor into the
improved defense as well, doesn’t he? Since we’re not trotting KG, Thurston, or Barden out there like we did to start the season?
for all of barden's defects, he was a
Good defender.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 22, 2009 2:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he and Piñeiro have some kind of symbiosis
What do we call them? JoRyan? Breneiro?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
OT: Look what I found!
Brendan Ryan vs. Batting Stance Guy
If I can find it posted anywhere that’s not linked to facebook, I’ll make it a fanshot.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
by andi_k on Aug 22, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not bad
I had no idea Ryan was so perceptive of his environment.
by Buckeye Redbird on Aug 22, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Solid Babe Ruth from Boog
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I liked the edmonds one the best I think
but that one was very good too. it’s funny the impersonator guy’s funniest one was of Brendan to start it out
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, but the impersonator guy failed to notice that it's
lick shoulder, helmet tap, swing
lick shoulder, helmet tap, swing, tug shirtsleeve.
BSG did not include helmet taps. /nitpicking
my CLH (common-law husband) and I have been observing his quirks for a while because we’re both convinced he’s a little ADD/OCD, which endears him to us. Ever notice his grapevine step off of 2nd when he’s on base? He “erases” his footsteps in the dirt too. Also, he’s taken to running a wide hook to the right of and then in front of the starting pitcher as the team returns to the dugout after a half-inning on the field.
(This may make it apparent that my CLH and I are a a bit OCD as well…)
We’ve been trying to figure out the sock pattern too. On opening day this year, the socks went up and down FOUR TIMES.
Jeesh, that sounds pathetic. Maybe he and I need a new hobby.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
yeah
that guy wasn’t really as much of an impersonator. seemed more like comedian or caricature artist. I was surprised how good Brendan was, he may have a career after baseball!
I will have to pay closer attention to Brendan’s mannerisms, he is certainly an odd character, and they are the best.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
if memory serves me right, he's some asshole from bean town
he really does suck. his “impressions” are awful. he’s got no fucking clue.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
you are more obsessed than I am.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Is that bad? Do I need help?
Is an intervention in order?
/sniffle
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
if you're not keeping stats, it isn't real.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
/slowly folds spreadsheet, casually hides it in back pocket
I’m good, then
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
and yet your sig has no Boog in.
peculiar…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Speaking of odd rituals or whatever.
It’s pretty common knowledge that most baseball players won’t step on the foul line when running on to or off of the field, well I saw Jason Motte pitch at Wrigley (the make-up game) a little while back and noticed he, of course, had to take it a little further.
When he walked off the mound, not only did I notice he deliberately did not step on the foul line, but he avoided the seam between the grass and dirt as well. Sure many people will do this by jumping over the entire dirt section (jumping from grass to grass) but Motte did his a little differently.
Motte being Motte, almost stopped before he got to the dirt then stepped his foot on the dirt carefully between the seam and chalk, then stepped forward and did the same thing with the opposite foot on the other side of the chalk, then stepped on the grass and continued walking. While doing this, he kinda had to angle his foot a little so it would fit between the seam and the chalk without touching either.
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
I've mentioned it before
Brendan Ryan thinks Jason Motte is crazy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I really want to see a reality show with them two and larussa
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
we've had several show suggestions already
I wish I could remember all of them. They’re pretty much lost in the game threads.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah
I’ve been touting this show that has Larussa, Brendan, and Motte, contrasted with having Piniella, Bradley, and Zambrano. hillarity would ensue.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
having Piniella, Bradley, and Zambrano. hillarity would ensue.
I think that show is called Hard Knocks: Cincinnati Bengals.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I would DVR that every night and never let anyone erase the episodes
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I attribute part of Motte's poor performance as of late
to the fact that he no longer talks to himself/into his glove while on the mound.
I’m kidding, but he was a lot more fun to watch when he talked to himself.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I do agree with this.
They took the fight out of him. He’s about three or four motions short of his usual routine off the rubber. He hesitates before he leaves the bullpen. When a pitcher wears his emotions on his sleeve and he admits that much of his extra motion’s subconscious, that’s worrisome.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I don't understand why they would *want* to take the fight out of him
This makes me sad
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I think he's been Dunc'd.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
THRO MOAR SINKERZ
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Shit, hit reply too early
I think he’s either
- Lost his moxie
or
- Been told to chill out
or
#Both
Personally, I kind of like a guy who is out there with a little attitude. It’s fun to watch. The things making him pitch bad is a lack of a viable second pitch combined with negligible fastball command. The two combined lead to home runs in bunches. I doubt his stomping routine was the issue.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Posting fail
-1, me.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
No
SBNation auto-formatting FAIL
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Well sort of,
I meant to do bullets but I did numbers instead mainly b/c I wasn’t paying attention. Me fail.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I just hate SBNation's auto-formatting
Maybe it’s good for people with zero HTML expertise but as someone who knows how to do everything the auto-formatting allows, it’s just a hassle. Sometimes I actually want to write the pound sign instead of making a numbered list.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
wish we could toggle it off
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Molina for one kept trying to slow him down last year
I suspect but cannot confirm that this is in line with what Duncan wants.
However, I agree with this too… it’s his invisible secondary pitch that’s screwing him up on the mound. Off-the-mound, he could just be screwed.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm not sure they should make him work on his slider at the expense of his fastball
I was at a game last year in which he hit 101 on the stadium gun. The crowd made some ooh and ahh noise (as in response to fireworks show).
I hope he is not Dunc’d to the extent that Anthony Reyes was.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Funniest part was when he made fun of Boog's mustache
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
that is awesome
many thanks
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
That was very, very, funny.
And Ryan was definitely the better of the two.
It seems you don't need to have joined facebook to view it
judging from your (and Buckeye Redbird’s) response, so I think I will fanshot it anyway.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
i'm adding it to the mix-tape
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and it won't let me see it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
would it help if I gave you the URL text rather than the link?
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/video/video.php?v=120008252458&ref=mf
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
If I copy and paste the text above into an address bar (I'm using firefox)
even after having logged out of everything and clearing all cookies, it works. If you follow the link I posted and then try to copy and paste the text in THAT address bar, it won’t work because facebook changes the URL so that you are at a login page.
You probably already know all that. Sorry if it sounds pedantic. Just trying to help.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I got it
my browser needed to be persuaded to like facebook.
Either way, I’m adding it to the mix-tape post…. I should probably note that it’s being updated, huh…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
"my browser needed to be persuaded to like facebook"
yeah, it’s a hard sell.
: >
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
"that sort of hogwash has been tested and there’s absolutely nothing to it"
How does one test for a “jolt”?
Morale, good and bad, really does exist among groups whether it’s a military unit, a company, a team… It’s difficult to know how a given level of morale affects outcomes, but it really is a factor. Just b/c something is difficult to identify quantitatively doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Counterpoint
…even if it is a more fun clubhouse to be in now, what effect has that had on the team’s play? Can we tell for sure if the team’s already really good top-3 starters are pitching this way NOW because of this jolt? Like they were getting by on grumpiness earlier, but now it’s b/c of the "jolt?’
I’ve heard some say the offense has been jumpstarted, but as chuck demonstrated it’s largely b/c Lugo and Holliday have hit so well. Skip, Rasmus, and Ludwick have gone cold and Pujols has only been mortal. Hell just based on correlation of good play it would seem the new group of players has made our old guys worse! Obviously we’re just talking about random variation and you would have to expect all of those guys to do better…but nevertheless the “jolt of life” thesis is kind of a load of crap right now.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
good post, chuck
but i think you’re pretending as if the players are robots. your stats and such make all the sense in the world, but you do have to give some credit of the team’s great play to the “jolt” and/or “clubhouse chemistry” that has been in the cardinals clubhouse since the holliday trade.
like those above me mentioned, going to work is just better when you have coworkers that you enjoy working with. this leads to better performance, which is exactly what has happened here. i’m not arguing against our stats, they’re very obvious, but you can’t just completely disregard the moral aspect of it as wall.
by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 22, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions
Anatomy of a Streak
Who would dare to argue against the benefits of a happy clubhouse? However, for those who attribute “the jolt” to the idea of a happier Albert and Ryan, the argumentation of “chuckb” is flawless! The article is utterly sound and places everything into proper perspective. The chart, showing how all the major position players have performed since the Holliday acquisition, does not lend itself to a debatable issue. I would love to see an analysis of our pitching by “chuckb”…
by CardsFanSince57 on Aug 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions
Can you expound on what this means?
Cuz I have read this 5 times now and I can’t tell if you are being sincere or sarcastic as hell.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
He doesn't even use his real name
So how can we trust anything he says, right?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Anybody see...
what TLR said about little Dunc? Seems as though he has an open door whenever he wants it:
http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/08/thursday_tidbits_rotation_cdun.html
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
yeah. tony seems to be less please with mo/dewitt than chris is with the organization.
by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 22, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the little added part Leach put in there
According to one former teammate, it’s unlikely that Duncan would return as long as the current coaching staff is intact. Not that he had a problem with them — quite the contrary. But it’s no secret that there was a lot of baggage for Chris, playing for not only his dad but a manager who had known him since he was a kid.
If this is true, it is nice to know that at least Chris has some common sense about this whole situation.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
fight the good fight, CDunc!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Meaningless, to me
Things like “Team chemistry, good/bad clubhouse guy” and even “momentum.”
The 1986 Mets were all drugged the entire season up and that didn’t stop them. That had to be a bad clubhouse. They Mets even got rid of Foster because he WASN"T a crack whore like the rest of them.
The Braves, during their run, were criticized for being too “robot” like and not having more fun and that didn’t stop them.
What about the Yankee clubhouse of the 70’s? Fights in the dugout. Didn’t stop them.
The Rockies won what, 21 of 22, at the end of 2007 and swept the first two rounds then got swept in the WS. What about the 2006 WS, limping into the playoffs? Where’s the value of “Mo”?
Griffey Jr is praised as a “good guy” but when I met him he was a total dick. A “good guy” to you may not mean that to me.
Mark Grace was the definition of he-whore and admits it. I heard him say once that if had not went out as much as he did he would have hit something like 20 points higher. But he enjoyed the night life. That’s not putting the team first but he is considered a “good” teammate.
It’s all a crock.
Announcers, especially ones that used to play, are to blame. They are to scared to give any real insight. If I hear another announcer blame “lack of confidence” for a players slump I will punch my cat in the vagina.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Aug 22, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Ummm
I will punch my cat in the vagina.
Isn’t that a double negative?
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
nice to see, I guess
that the post-Holliday numbers support what I have been sensing… namely, that Pu, Luddy and Colby have cooled off considerably since the Matt H arrival; and that Molina and B Ryan have improved. There was a time a week or so ago that I was longing for a victory that did NOT have the Holliday/DeRosa/Lugo stamp all over it.
The good news is that it has slowly been and will even out. In any case I SO like our line-up, night to night, much more than I did the first half (LaRussa’s sometimes questionable plugs nothwithstanding.)
I quibble a bit with the statement that Lugo is a better offensive performer than Ryan. True he has been hot since he came on with us, and I DO like his approach at the plate, but over the long haul that probably won’t hold up. And Ryan is slowly learning and getting better as a hitter. And for sure he is better defensively than Lugo.
I really think it's just streakiness
Yadi was due to regress up to what he’s been hitting like in recent seasons (mainly this one and last one overall). Brendan Ryan getting more playing time is helping him to hit better imo.
as for Pujols, not sure what’s going on with him, but when he breaks out of his mini-funk it will be extremely ridiculous. Ludwick and Colby are both very streaky and who knows what Rasmus will do for the season. like Brendan Ryan, he will probably get better the more regularly he plays, which seems to be fairly regularly. so with some luck and a strong September, the offense should be scoring more runs early on.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 22, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
After a gift from Matt Kemp
(dropped a ball in the sun), the Cubbies fail to get a baserunner across in the 8th.
Dodgers leading 2-0
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Broxton strikes out Bradley for the first out
and Fukudome for the final out
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I wasn't going to say anything until
that had played itself out either.
And now the Cubs miss a dribbler to the right side of the mound. They look like a AAA team.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I have to feel a little sorry
for Chuckb. He must have a lot of trouble handling human complexity, unpredictability, and emotions. For him, it’s all about the numbers and apparently only about the numbers. For him the games might as well be played on a computer. But for all the interest and value of the statistics he so obsessively trots out, he can’t make a definitive prediction about a single at bat, a single game, or a single season. The law of averages is constantly affected by unpredictable factors such as luck, weather, injuries, and the fact that it is played by human beings and not robots. Some of us would have it no other way. Chuckb.’s faith in his figures seems so unswerving that he too often undercuts even his most valid insights by ridiculous statements such as his suggestion that his numbers prove that observable phenomena such as the effect of emotion on play are merely “hogwash.” He invites a comparable overreaction from his critics.
by Mike G on Aug 22, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
...azru can never play baseball?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Apparently not
He must exist vicariously through Colby Rasmus.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby's rusting?!!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
God, I hope not.
As if a sore heel and White Castle/hernia problems aren’t bad enough…the dude is losing his left calf due to excessive rust!
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby couldn't sell rusting.
Edmonds on line 1. MOAR DRAMAZ PLZ.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Is today " I wanna be a tool day" ?
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
This is stupid
you’re history of comments consists of this bullshit where you show up and say that the author doesn’t understand thing beyond numbers. There’s no rationale behind it so it’s really nothing more than a personal attack. I think we’re reaching the point where this kind of crap becomes a ban-able offense.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I've yet to use the right "your" in like the last 4 days
Even when I talk, I say the wrong one.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Aug 22, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I laughed.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
You guys really need
to grow tougher skins, Azru. You and your colleagues put your stuff out there for people to read but become enraged if someone dares to disagree with your perspective. Chuckb would be a far more persuasive writer if he learned to qualify the overconfidence he places in numbers and stopped suggesting that differing views are mere “hogwash,” and your defense of his reasoning would be a lot more convincing if it didn’t consist mainly of calling me “stupid” and describing my comments as “bullshit” and “crap.” Yet in your narrow little world I am the one who should be banned! Apparently I have no business disagreeing with Chuckb’ assumptions, especially if If I have done so before and if I don’t support my own thoroughly argument with countervailing statistics. You, on the hand, believe you are entitled to attack me with obnoxious epithets while threatening the ultimate weapon of an insecure establishment, total censorship. I suggest that you grow up. A little maturity would become you.
What, exactly,
do you think is the purpose of VEB?
Also, use the paragraph break.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
And where exactly
do you think a paragraph break belongs, as if there is some absolute rule calling for one in this context?
As for the purpose of VEB, I think you should go first since you raised the issue. I do recall that when lboros was in charge, he promulgated some standards and guidelines for posting on the site. I don’t believe I’m in violation of any of them, but it’s hard to know since the current regime appears to have dropped or buried them where I can’t find them. Perhaps it’s easier to threaten to ban people when there are no standards or procedures to be followed.
I hope you are happy with the paragraph breaks.
I'm not talking about your posting behavior.
I’m talking about VEB itself. It’s a website that view baseball through the prism of numbers. It’s a stat-oriented baseball blog. It’s a blog that looks to numbers and stats for explanations. Understand?
You’re criticizing VEB writers for using numbers to explain. But that is their aim! You can go to any newspaper, fan forum, sports site, etc. to find the type of writing you’re looking for. But you aren’t going to find it here.
If you want to criticize that, I’m sure you’re more than welcome to. It’s just that the very act of doing that is hostile. It’s akin to going to a bar and being outraged that the bartender is serving alcohol, or going to a church and being outraged that they’re talking about god, or going to a theatre and being outraged that they show movies. Your behavior just doesn’t make any sense. If you don’t want stats-oriented baseball writing, then why the hell are you reading VEB? What is the point in criticizing? The numbers – and the writing that uses them as an explanation – aren’t going to go away just because you don’t agree with them.
The bottom line is that you KNOW this is what happens on VEB, and to come here and bitch about it for no reason makes you a troll.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 23, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm well aware
that this website views baseball “through the prism of numbers,” as you rather elegantly put it. I have no problem with that and frequently find the approach suggestive and illuminating. Sometimes I even find Chuckb illuminating. My problem with him, however, is that I also find his faith in numbers excessively dogmatic and rather off-putting. Occasionally I feel compelled to take him to task for this. That hardly makes me a “troll.” which in any case is becoming a rather lazy and overused term in blogging circles for anyone who happens to challenge the comfortable assumptions of the majority. I suspect you know better.
At any rate, I came to this blog originally for the insights of Larry Borosky, who certainly knew his numbers but also knew that the game involved a lot more than that, as evidenced by his recent piece on Ottavino. Maybe the new boys on the block will achieve that standard some day, but I’m afraid they still have a ways to go.
You did not challenge his insights.
You attacked him. You’re cowardly. You’re adding nothing to the discussion whatsoever. And now you’re running in circles, trying to find a way to dress up your drivel. You’re not a flamer; you’re a troll. There is a distinction and you’ve earned it.
Additionally, you’re missing the point: You find faith in numbers off-putting? Then this isn’t the site for you. You’re complaining about what is being served here – for free – and how it’s being served. And you’re not even hungry for the product!
You’re in denial. Good luck with that.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
FURTHER
your initial comment was a personal attack against chuckb. Because of a few blog posts, chuckb has trouble handling human complexity and emotions? What the hell is that? You aren’t merely disagreeing with what’s being written. You’re attacking the writers and the whole community.
And then you say that your overreaction is justified because chuckb is dismissive of platitudes and unexplainable variables. Does every f*cking post need a caveat that there are some things that are unexplainable? Are we really that stupid that there are some of us who don’t understand that? Perhaps some of us accept that there are things that cannot be explained. Then, we choose to look for explanations in areas that can shed light on what was previously unexplainable. That’s where the numbers come in.
If you don’t buy it, that’s fine. But to personally attack people is ridiculous and in violation of the community guidelines, which are conveniently located along the left side of the main page. In the words of lboros:
When you have a difference of opinion with another member of the community: attack the opinion, not the person. a guy isn’t an idiot simply because he disagrees with you. if you think flawed logic, faulty premises, and/or factual errors underlie his opinion, point those things out; try to persuade him (and the rest of us) that your view of things makes more sense. the entire community can learn a lot from that type of exchange. but we learn nothing-and you make yourself look stupid-when you simply taunt your adversary or call him names. flame wars will not be tolerated.
You really think you followed that guideline? Here’s a link to the community guidelines page. Please read it.
There are sharp, heated disagreements on VEB everyday, some of them lasting days and days. No one is opposed to dissent. It’s all in how you do it. And you are not doing it right.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 23, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I think I was well within
the spirit of that guideline, at least for the most part. You might ask yourself whether Azruvatar, the man who thinks I deserve banning, has been within that spirit in the course of his attacks on me. Apparently, sarcasm is an acceptable rhetorical tool only when it is being used by the main bloggers on this site; it can’t be directed against them. In retrospect, however, I do admit that I was a little condescending in my observation that I felt sorry for Chuckb, and I retract that statement. I no longer feel sorry for him.
A little condescending?
You essentially called someone you don’t know sub-human. Right off the bat. It escalated because the spirit with which you wrote your comment was ill-intended. You’re a nuisance.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
The guidelines aren't buried
They are located in the “Viva El Birdos FAQ” box on the left side of the page right above the Rotoworld bar. Hidden in plain sight, I suppose.
You started this whole sub-thread by taking an unnecessary potshot at chuck. If you disagree, explain why the argument is flawed…don’t write this:
I have to feel a little sorry for Chuckb. He must have a lot of trouble handling human complexity, unpredictability, and emotions.
So basically you’re saying that one of the editors of this saber-based site is an unfeeling simpleton because, gasp, he sees a statistical explanation that utterly dashes aside the “team got an emotional jolt” thesis. That argument holds no water whatsoever.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 23, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
My eyesight
may not be as sharp as yours, but the guidelines are anything but prominently placed. As for my argument, if it was as simplistic as you make it sound, I wouldn’t accept it myself. Unfortunately, your own argument seems no stronger than your paraphrase of mine.
it isn't disagreement that anyone has a problem with
some people like you need to learn how to disagree without the attitude that makes you come across as complete and total assholes.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I guess it's a matter of opinion
who’s being the total asshole and who’s only partial. I’ll leave it at that.
I will admit to being one
If you can look back at your original comment and sincerely believe that you weren’t being condescending then I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on this.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I love it when people tell me to get a thicker skin
like I’ve never weathered criticism here or at Future Redbirds before. It’s laughable.
1) I didn’t call you stupid.
2) Your comments are crap. There’s nothing constructive to them and they exist merely to say that you don’t like something. It’s the equivalent of me walking into work and saying, “Boss, I don’t think you’re doing your job right. I think your attitude is wrong and you don’t understand how to even think about the subject properly.” I’d be fired and rightfully so. Here, you get banned.
3) No one asked you to bring statistics up to counter the argument. But, instead of saying, I think this is wrong, offer some kind of rationale other than “I don’t like statistics and I don’t think people are robots.” It’s a very tired argument that everyone needs to get passed. I don’t think even the hardest of hardcore sabermetric believers thinks that the players aren’t affected by intangibles and outside influences. Just read every post with a asterisk at the end acknowledging that.
4) When the only thing you bring to the community is about 70 odd comments bitching about the authors, that’s not a community member that’s a nuisance.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Aug 23, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ok, you didn't call me stupid
just my comments, when you weren’t calling them crap. No doubt, you were laughing all the way through, however. In the spirit of reciprocity, I’m not going to call you childish; I’m just going to suggest that your present remarks are at least as puerile as your previous ones. I suggest also that you consider adding a comma after “member” in your last line so that your readers won’t think you are saying the opposite of what you mean.
It would be a semicolon
technically
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
A semicolon would be fine
I like semicolons, although some find commas preferable when the sentence components being divided are as short as yours are here.
Those people
would be misusing the comma, then. As long as the clause as independent and it conjoins with another independent clause, it calls for either a period or a semi-colon.
,You’ve got some weak sauce, bro.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
The guidelines,
which were written by Larry – who you seem to revere – indicate that it’s alright to attack someone’s ideas, but not them.
And if you’re going to attack someone’s writing now, well, perhaps you should do some self-editing. Your first sentence is a run-on. You shouldn’t use “however” at the end of the second sentence, which by the way, has some really lousy syntax.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Non-rec...
Let’s say for a second that this team did get a lift from the Holliday, Lugo, and DeRosa acquisistion and THAT is the reason why they are playing better. Well…why is it that the bullpen is still a house of cards, that Skip, Pujols, Rasmus, and Ludwick are doing WORSE, and the offense is being carried to a large extent by Molina’s singles, DeRosa’s solo bombs, Lugo, and Holliday? If anything, the players that were supposed to get a “lift” haven’t gotten it b/c they’re either doing the same as before or worse.
Your move.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
boo-hiss to Mike G's point
while I am in that camp that does not feel endearment to posts that are overly sabermetrical or that rest on numbers analysis, the over-riding factor for me (re up or down enjoyment of reading) is readability.
For my money, chuck simply writes more clearly (sentence patterns) than the other thread starters. Therefore if HE numbers me to death, I tend to give him a pass.
Many commenters on here write well, too, but of the honcho’s, chuck is the one I will always read.
If you want ’huh? what the h—- is he saying?"… you want DanUp.
chuck and LB, both
Both of those fellows are masters of the clear and to-the-fact sentence. Personally, I also enjoy the whimsy of Dan’s posts b/c it’s well-written whimsy. Just my opinion…Ultimately it’s a preference issue.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 22, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
And I like RB's meandering prose,
which someday i hope to read while on acid, nude, somewhere in Espana.
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 22, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
i'm still waiting for red to really break out of his shell
he’s holding back on us, and when he stop, ooohhhh boy, that’s going to be epic
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Aug 22, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
in my opinion, it is quite dickish to tear into one of the mod's work here
it is one thing to do it to a fellow commenter(or?)we can be asshole-y sometimes , but to do it to one of the guys who put a lot of work into it is just out of line. These kind of comments go way past disagreeing.
People who come in here just to rip these guys should be stripped of the priviledge of commenting, IMO.
Like my mom always said, just because you can be a douchebag doesn’t mean that you HAVE to be one.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I don't think I've ever heard my mom use the word "douchebag"
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
strange
I always assumed that is the d stood for in JD. I am now disappointed JD. * *
* * doesn’t really think JD is a douchebag, please don’t ban me!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
agree, you can f'in gdm, douchebag anyone within reason
but to rip on chuck, dan, red & az’s writing just because you can, there’s no place for that here
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
She said it about you last night,
Trebek!
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 22, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Douchebag, eh?
And you want me banned because I have the audacity to suggest that “one of the guys who put a lot into this” is not beyond criticism for the perspective—or lack thereof—he brings to his analysis? I think people who comment just because they want to rip me without even addressing the point I made are at least as worthy of that treatment, though I don’t favor it. Notice I didn’t personally insult you despite the obvious invitation to do so.
I love all the writers here
But I think DanUp is clearly the best prose artist of the bunch.
My point isn’t to rag on chuckb and baron. My point is: to each their own, and I think it’s unfair of you to label DanUp as a confusing rhetorician simply because you find his colloquial prose, wordplay, and defiantly un-Strunk-and-White-ian style confounding. I’ve never found him in the least bit hard to read.
It’s a matter of preference.
This is a
blog about numbers. If chuckb wrote about all the things you’re talking about, it wouldn’t be here.
Why don’t people get this?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
It's a mystery, isn't it?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 23, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
As to the point that the lack of rallies were simply due to bad hitters
It doesn’t quite reconcile that, before the trades, the team averaged over 0.2 more runs per inning when they batted with the game tied or when leading than they did when they they trailed. This discrepancy was further enhanced when you took the month of April out of the equation.
I did the calculations for similar offensively crippled teams with a similar number of “black holes” in their lineup, most notably the Mets and Astros, and found that their run scoring rates were only slightly decreased (much less than 0.1 runs/inning) when trailing.
Adding a DeRosa and Holliday to the Mets or Astros would improve their offense just as they did for the Cardinals. However, they provided something else that was lacking in the Cardinals lineup, that was more pronounced in St Louis than in other weak offensive lineups, and brought the run-scoring rates when trailing vs ahead/tied back to the normal league-wide levels.
You can discount “grit” and “team cohesion” and “player confidence” all you want, but you have to then avoid answering why the Cardinals, even with Thursty, Duncan, and the Greenes getting regular time, still scored above league average runs per inning when tied or ahead, and why this rate of scoring dropped more precipitously than any other weak offensive team in the league when they trailed.
umm . . . luck?
Doesn’t seem to me that a few tenths of a run are significant?
The problem – or just a problem – with these debates is that the logic is circular. How do you spot a gritty team with good chemistry? They score runs and win games. What does grit and chemistry do for a team? Helps them win games. It’s just terrible logic. Anybody who wants to rank the teams this offseason in order from 1 to 30 in terms of chemistry or grit? If the top ten teams overperform the projections based on just the skill of the players and the bottom ten underperform, I might be persuaded.
But players who are gritty clubhouse leaders suddenly lose that rep when they slump.
Aaron miles was the preeminent player who brought “intangibles” to the clubhouse in STL. Now he’s with the cubs, the cubs are losing, and cub fans say “you know what’s wrong with our team? Bad chemistry, no leadership. And we play guys who flat-out suck, like aaron miles.” Somehow aaron’s magical fairy grit ran out when he got to a clubhouse full of aging veterans with minimal depth.
All I see in most conversations about chemistry and grit is confirmation bias. That’s different from saying there are no intangibles. What I’m saying is that intangibles, by their nature, are hard to identify, so people see them where they think they should be rather than where they actually are.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 22, 2009 7:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this thread needs to be FLAGGED.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hello John Morris!
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
Fly it Proud!
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Breaking News---Cubs lose 2-0
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
It would be really nice to win tonight and get another game up on the Cubs
since they are going to start a cupcake homestand against the Nationals, Mets & Astros.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
LOL we are too (cupcake homestand) except replace the Mets with the Brewers.
I laugh but the Astros and Brewers haven’t really been “cupcake” opponents for us in recent years.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Yay!
[retarded Harry Caray voice] Cubs lose! [/retarded Harry Caray voice]
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
Speaking of a Harry Caray imitation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haAhdtDmsOw
Always funny.
“I once took a pair of binoculars and stared at the sun for over an hour.”
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
it will all be worth it soon pal!
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Drink
It makes the time go faster
People sleep peacably in their beds at night because rough men stand at the ready to do violence on their behalf--George Orwell.
you spelled
job drugs hooker life wrong
thanks for reminding me i am hungry. to the fridge!
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
"Get a drugs"?
Grammar fail
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude the Cubs are about to fall into second place
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
Err
OUT of second place
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 22, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Big congrats to David Eckstein
who is about to sign an extension for 2010 with the padres
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 22, 2009 7:39 PM EDT reply actions
Aw shucks
You know us so well, Sooner.
If I may flip things about — god DAMN that was a nice throw from center by Ankiel last night.
But yeah, I’d rather see Colby in center.
vid
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6225609
hope that works…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 22, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
And Colby did something useful last night (HR)
so maybe Sooner can get off his high horse and understand why we like to see Colby play every now and again. Shit, even Al was going on and on about how Rasmus hasn’t been getting enough regular at bats last night and should be playing more.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Brendan looks like someone tried to scalp him.
wild west style
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
for the first time, I'm so-so about an upcoming Brendan Ryan interview
also, geez, do they run him out to be interviewed as punishment?
…answered my own question.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
another Boog highlight reel
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and matheny was in studio too
i wish he wouldn’t take credit for Dick’s melt down. it’s Dick’t fault, no one else should shoulder any blame.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
yup
it’s at the gamethread
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 22, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
in the, oh what might have been department
YP came in the top of the 8th for the Tribe in a 3-3 game vs Those That Sail Boats On The Left Coast. on his first pitch, a 95mph straight as an arrow fastball right down the middle of the plate, mike sweeney, yes, that mike sweeney drilled a double off the left center field wall. two pitches later with russell don’t call me paul branyan at the plate, he bounced a slider for a wild pitch & the pinch runner was able to advance to third. he then proceeded to tease & tease him with more 96mph firepower, that all russell could do with was foul off, till big russ could not catch up on one low & away, but still a strike even if he didn’t take a very late swing on it. he then made short work of old friend bill hall, getting him to foul off a few country hard balls, till hall K’d looking a 96mph heater. and then he got kenji jumpin jehosaphat johjima to ground out to short on 3 pitches, 2 more 96mph heaters & 1 slide piece.
how the hell did joe morgan hack my account?
it was the second time i’ve seen him pitch since the trade, and he looked great. this will come as no surprise to anyone, but he looked like he did when he first came up. his mechanics did not look like those our hall of fame pitching coach was insisting he use. he was throwing free & easy & hard. and i mean hard. one problem though. he’s still not fooling anyone on his slider. every one was bounced. but he was able to keep everyone but sweeney honest by at least throwing it once to every batter.
with todd now in the Tribes pen, the DeRo for YP & Todd trade looks like a big loss for the Cards. has HL has pointed out over at future redbirds, twice! Allen Craig has matched DeRo stat for stat this season, and will be better in the future. why MO & the Cards can’t see this is a huge financial & talent misjudgment of epic proportions. that trade was a huge, huge mistake. i don’t care if the Cards get to fly a flag forever after october has passed. they fucked up big time by trading away YP & Todd.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Come on now.....
Are you really comparing DeRosa in the Majors to Craig at AAA? Really?
I personally don’t think Craig will ever do jack in the big leagues, and if he does, it’ll be as a LF, and not at 3B. I’m also not sold on Todd or Perez. Perez will probably at least be servicable, at a minimum.
I hate posts like this though, b/c in 2-3 years when Craig is either riding somebody’s bench, or still in AAA, and Todd isn’t anything more than a back of the bullpen guy, nobody will remember this post.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 22, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
well as long as you think he won't , I am sold!
I hate posts like this, cuz you think your opinion is more valuable than someone elses.
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Aug 22, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not alone in my valuation of Craig....
It appears the team agrees with me, and several posters.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 23, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you ever seen Allen Craig play?
even once? For someone who relies on their eyes so often, I’m going to guess not.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
come on man, stop being that guy
please
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Aug 23, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Then stop comparing a guy in AAA
to a guy in the majors, and using their respective stats to do it.
Even my grandma knows there is no value in doing that.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 23, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Well major league front offices do it all the damn time
What’s the point of even keeping minor league stats if you’re not going to use them to compare players?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 23, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow
I think gdm may be overstating his case RE: Craig and what he would do at the ML level this year, but the fact is that DeRosa’s only been okay with the bat in his time here and abysmal with the glove. This team’s biggest issue is it’s RH relief corps, and two of their more promising arms who fill that exact role are currently in Cleveland, with one dominating apparently b/c he ditched whatever advice “One Size Fits All” Duncan was giving. I would say that DeRosa alone < Perez, Todd, Craig, simply b/c while Craig by himself may do less, the combination of the three would be a useful crew to this team right now.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 23, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no idea how I'm going to sleep at night.
"F@*& Lidge and the horse he rode in on!"
-Cards Fan in Chitown, via text message shortly after the VEB Get Together Day.
i disagree about the hogwash and the jolt...
…though i do think more often than not, Dan and Al are f@#$ed in the head. I appreciate all the stats, but I also believe that things we cannot measure such as emotions, attitude and sheer luck play a large role in the outcome of baseball life just as they do in non-baseball life.
btw, i don’t like the holliday and derosa trades long term (especially derosa) but it’s sure fun watching the team respond to the “jolt” that i believe those trades (especially holliday) have created.
by iaintsentimental on Aug 23, 2009 11:41 PM EDT reply actions
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