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Colby and the Sinister Side


After last nights 3 K performance, all against lefties, I decided I wanted to look at Colby Rasmus's stats against left-handed pitchers. He has clearly struggled against southpaws this season, and the stats bear this out. Here is what I found:

In 88 AB against lefties this season, Rasmus has put up a .150/.218/.200 line for an OPS of .418(OPS+ is a dreadful 20). 21 of his 88 at bats have ended in a strikeout and he only has 5 walks. Obviously, that is really really bad, especially when you see that he is OPSing at a rate of .833 against RH pitching(OPS+ of 112). Watching the game last night, Colby looked really overmatched and even more than that, he looked to be guessing. The strikeout pitch from Kuo was a fastball that Gameday said was right down the middle. My guess is that he is having some trouble picking up the pitch from the lefties(which is a problem for many LH handed batters), which is causing him to guess instead of react. His minor league stats lead me to believe that he can and will turn it around.

In 422 Minor league at bats, Rasmus put up a solid .275/.371./.455 line against LH pitching, though his LD% was on the low side at 15.1%. These stats do include what almost amounts to a lost 2008 season at Memphis, where his customary slow start and injury affected his numbers. Rasmus showed he could hit lefties in the minors with a career .826 OPS. So why isn't he hitting lefties in the majors?

The first thing that must be pointed out is that 88 PAs against Lefties is the definition of small sample size. I also believe that Colby may be getting unlucky. His BABIP against lefties is a paltry .190, quite a bit lower than his minor league BABIP against lefties(.334). I cannot find his LD% against lefties to see if he is in fact getting unlucky this season, so if anyone has that, please post it.

The pitch that I have seen him have the most trouble with against lefties is the curve. Fangraphs' numbers bear this out as Rasmus is 1.4 runs below average against the curveball, He also struggles against the cutter, where he is 1.5 runs below average. Both of these pitches are often used by lefties on LH batters, and they are used to good effect against Rasmus. I really think he is having some trouble picking up the ball, which is forcing him to guess. Still, his minor league numbers, and the small sample size, give me hope that in the future, Colby will be able to hit left handed pitching. He probably won't ever be a great hitter against them, but he'll be good enough that, combined with his above average ability vs. RH pitching and outstanding defense, he'll be a borderline star for years to come.

Addendum: I played around with MLE's on a couple different sites, and the numbers they gave me were very very disappointing, against RH and LH pitching both. I don't know if I am doing something wrong, or what, but if anyone wants to add those to the comments, please feel free. I was really hoping to use them as part of my evidence, but wasn't able to.