Colby and the Sinister Side
by VolsnCards5 on Aug 20, 2009 3:39 PM EDT
38 comments
After last nights 3 K performance, all against lefties, I decided I wanted to look at Colby Rasmus's stats against left-handed pitchers. He has clearly struggled against southpaws this season, and the stats bear this out. Here is what I found:
In 88 AB against lefties this season, Rasmus has put up a .150/.218/.200 line for an OPS of .418(OPS+ is a dreadful 20). 21 of his 88 at bats have ended in a strikeout and he only has 5 walks. Obviously, that is really really bad, especially when you see that he is OPSing at a rate of .833 against RH pitching(OPS+ of 112). Watching the game last night, Colby looked really overmatched and even more than that, he looked to be guessing. The strikeout pitch from Kuo was a fastball that Gameday said was right down the middle. My guess is that he is having some trouble picking up the pitch from the lefties(which is a problem for many LH handed batters), which is causing him to guess instead of react. His minor league stats lead me to believe that he can and will turn it around.
In 422 Minor league at bats, Rasmus put up a solid .275/.371./.455 line against LH pitching, though his LD% was on the low side at 15.1%. These stats do include what almost amounts to a lost 2008 season at Memphis, where his customary slow start and injury affected his numbers. Rasmus showed he could hit lefties in the minors with a career .826 OPS. So why isn't he hitting lefties in the majors?
The first thing that must be pointed out is that 88 PAs against Lefties is the definition of small sample size. I also believe that Colby may be getting unlucky. His BABIP against lefties is a paltry .190, quite a bit lower than his minor league BABIP against lefties(.334). I cannot find his LD% against lefties to see if he is in fact getting unlucky this season, so if anyone has that, please post it.
The pitch that I have seen him have the most trouble with against lefties is the curve. Fangraphs' numbers bear this out as Rasmus is 1.4 runs below average against the curveball, He also struggles against the cutter, where he is 1.5 runs below average. Both of these pitches are often used by lefties on LH batters, and they are used to good effect against Rasmus. I really think he is having some trouble picking up the ball, which is forcing him to guess. Still, his minor league numbers, and the small sample size, give me hope that in the future, Colby will be able to hit left handed pitching. He probably won't ever be a great hitter against them, but he'll be good enough that, combined with his above average ability vs. RH pitching and outstanding defense, he'll be a borderline star for years to come.
Addendum: I played around with MLE's on a couple different sites, and the numbers they gave me were very very disappointing, against RH and LH pitching both. I don't know if I am doing something wrong, or what, but if anyone wants to add those to the comments, please feel free. I was really hoping to use them as part of my evidence, but wasn't able to.
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One thing you didn’t mention, that I think MLE’s can lose a little… The lefties in the majors are MUCH better than the lefties not in the majors.
It very well may be that he can hit minor-league caliber lefties fine, but those don’t exist in the majors. I hope he can get it turned around, as that’s one of the last real holes in his game.
by whopperman on Aug 20, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that is a big part of it.....
You don’t face many good lefties in the minors, especially the lower levels.
I’d be curious to see what he did against lefties at Memphis, and possibly Springfield.
That said, you can tell he is overmatched against them. I wouldn’t read too much into his BABIP, b/c I simply don’t think he is hitting the ball very hard against lefties when he is putting it in play. If I hit weak grounder after weak grounder, my BABIP is going to be crap.
I think Colby will hit lefties acceptably in time. What “in time” means I have no idea. But probably not this year, and probably not against the lefties we’ll see in the postseason.
Wish we had another option for CF against lefties in the playoffs, at least for the early innings. Guess we’ll just have to bat Raz or Ricky low in the order, and hope the other guys come through.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 20, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he hit them ok in springfield
.250/.379/.460 in 124 at bats…memphis was worse, but he was hurt for a good portion and had a really slow start…OPS was .700
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Aug 20, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, I just don't buy that
why are the lefties in the minors so much significantly worse than the righties in the minors? This is an argument I’ve heard you suggest a lot – I don’t necessarily disagree, I’m just not sure I subscribe to it. A RHP in AAA/AA is worse than a RHP in the majors, generally. A LHP in AAA/AA is worse than a LHP in the majors, generally. I just don’t see why the GULF is larger for LHP than RHP.
I guess you could argue this makes a difference in the pen, moreso than in the rotation, but even then, I dunno. Look at our AAA team – there’s 3, if not 4, borderline MLB-quality lefties (not necessarily GOOD ones, but Royce Ring, Charlie Manning, and to a lesser extent Ian Ostlund have had good career stats vs LHB), which is probably more than we can say about our right-handed relief at that level.
My take is that Ankiel’s dreadful vs LHP (and WAS in the minor leagues), whereas so far Colby’s been dreadful vs LHP (but WASN’T in the minor leagues). I know who I’d rather have, especially when you take defence into account. The best argument, IMO, for Colby not facing lefties is to somehow “protect” or “baby” him from them (i.e. the whole “putting him in the best chance of succeeding” argument), but he’s going to have to face them sooner or later, so, again, I don’t think this holds any water.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know where you got that last idea—
but Ankiel’s splits against lefties in the minors were actually excellent—an .842 OPS against lefties, .879 against righties. You can hardly do better than that.
You can disagree with the predictive value of the stats, but those are the stats.
by DanUpBaby on Aug 20, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah. I stand corrected. I must've been thinking of Duncan.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 21, 2009 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, rasmus was very good vs LHP from 2005-2007
ie, in the low minors. You might be remembering that.
My guess is that he’ll probably always have at least some problems with LHP in the majors because he’s a tall lanky hitter who K’s a lot. Power hitters typically have a harder time adjusting than contact hitters against same-side pitchers.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 23, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's the problem with MLE's
those .842/.879 OPS splits correspond to a .655/.665 OPS MLE line, according to minorleaguesplits.com. A number (.879) that sounds high is actually not that great for a minor league player, especially one Ankiel’s age (though the milbsplits.com MLE’s don’t take age into account IIRC).
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 23, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just going to take signficant at-bats vs LHP in MLB
to improve. Griffey Jr. struggled to .212 BA/.610 OPS his rookie year only to see it jump to .306/.805 the very next season.
That’s why this platoon business has got to stop. Rasmus hitting LHP is vital to this teams success from today until the day he stops playing for the Cardinals. They don’t need to waste time and money on another CF to bat against LHP, so the sooner they get Colby more comfortable the better.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I agree to an extent.....
But we’re in the middle of a playoff race, with a damn good team that alot of people think has a good chance at a WS this year. At some point, you put the “future” aside, and do what gives you the best chance to win now. That may or may not include starting Raz against lefties.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 20, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
there was some great LHP hitting, awesomely fielding CF on the roster, a platoon would be great.
But there’s not.
There’s just another guy that hits LHP crapilly and is not as an awesome fielding CF.
Not even redundant to Colby, but worse in pretty much every aspect.
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 20, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
You are putting the future aside and trying to win now by playing Colby. That’s what happens when you have really good young players. They can both get better AND contribute.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sooner, you are very frustrating.
I mean, specifically, your tendency to make a point/contribute in an argument and then, when someone has something substantive to say in reply, you just quit the thread halfway through and move onto something else.
Dunno if that bugs anyone else on here but I find the disappearing act a bit of a pain (and, in general, I feel you sometimes get a bit of an unfair rap on other matters).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 21, 2009 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You and Azru should be friends
Dunno if that bugs anyone else on here but I find the disappearing act a bit of a pain
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 21, 2009 4:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did I "quit"?
I have a life outside of this board. Sometimes I have to do my real job, or spend time with family and loved ones. Discussions get “cut off” all the time. Where did somebody make a point above that I just absolutely have to respond to?
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 21, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I was asking where you got the idea that lefties were tougher in the minors,
compared to righties, as opposed to the majors. Is there some evidence for this? I’m not sure where you get that idea, or if it’s just an unsubstantiated opinion.
You seem to do it a lot in general. Not especially in this case, but it often seems to be when you’re losing an argument. Someone else mentioned it a few days/weeks back when you made a statement that was false and they called you on it. It may just be random I guess. It just seems a bit, I dunno, unfocussed or something. Might just be me being daft.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 21, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey Jr Point well taken
I sometimes feel that platooning a young player is a self fulfilling thing. Especially with lefties. Their at-bats against lefties are cut, and they then hit worse in the future against lefties, because they do not see them often. Just think of most pitchers, who were great hitters in high school. When they stop getting chances to hit, they become bad hitters.
by Remember Kenny B on Aug 22, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This might be a dumb point
but why not employ a lefthanded batting practice pitcher? I remember reading that Greg Madduz used to warm up from the stretch, because he figured you work from the stretch only in tight situations — those with runners on base. He said he felt more comfortable from the stretch having warmed up that way.
Do the Cardinals employ one? I haven’t ever noticed, really.
by Michael_68_1999 on Aug 20, 2009 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They do.
And use him the day they go against a lefty. But they could probably use a better one. Like, say… Dick Ankiel.
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 20, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd probably pitch one right into Raz's head.
…not on purpose of course.
by Schnurdog on Aug 21, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do they make a
lefthanded, fireballing, side arming, curve ball pitching machine?
by ridgesee on Aug 20, 2009 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
idk
but I heard mulder healthy is enough to throw again.
by from First to Third on Aug 20, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooooohhhh
that’d be like trading for an all-star without having to give anything up for him!
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 20, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’d be like trading for an all-star Chris Narveson without having to give anything up for him
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 21, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He needs time to adjust
He has been taking some pretty bad AB’s lately, but so has Ryan Ludwick, but nobody’s getting all bent out of shape about Ludwick so far.
Here’s what I find interesting. Back in February, chuckb did a community WAR projection and asked the VEB community to give an over/even/under on CHONE’s projections for this season. Let’s look at those numbers:
- CHONE (50th percentile): .245/.335/.398
- VEB PRJ: (70th percentile): .265/.360/.450
- Rasmus (to Aug 2009): .256/.314/.424
From here we can see that both CHONE and VEB expected him to have much better patience at the plate than what he’s shown so far. As chuckb stated in this results the next day, VEB was expecting him to come out of the chute as a top 5 or 6 centerfielder in the game — that might be expecting just a little too much. By WAR, he’s been the 7th best CF in the NL this season and the 11th best in the big leagues, mostly due to his defense, although that slugging percentage certainly hasn’t hurt him any. That’s pretty damn good for a 22 year old rookie with only half a season at AAA. I had him pegged under his 50th percentile projection for this year in that post (and was way off on a lot of other guys), and he’s outperformed his 30th percentile projection pretty handily.
Overall, I think that we as a community expected too much from him this early. He’s still in his adjustment period and I do think that Tony’s constant tinkering with the lineup hasn’t helped Colby at all — this is probably the first season of his life where, when healthy, he wasn’t penciled into the lineup every day. When Tony was forced to play him nearly every day in June, his numbers looked a lot better, I’m not saying that’s the reason they did, but it certainly didn’t hurt the cause any.
Considering how good his defense has been and how solid he’s been against RHP this year, I think he needs to be in CF every day and hitting down near the bottom of the order around 7th or 8th. I would also expect that with Rick gone next year he’ll have a stranglehold on the starting CF spot and play 150+ games with a strong sophomore showing.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 21, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Honest question.....
When you use WAR to say he has been the 7th best NL CF, how does that factor in, or not, the fact that he has been somewhat platooned, and put in a position to suceed?
What I mean by that is that I think is overall numbers would be decreased if he played everyday. I think he’d struggle against lefties still. I think he might have some over exposure to righties if he were run out there everyday (this isn’t my strongest point), and I think mentally/physically, he’d wear down some.
Now I haven’t looked to see who is ranked above him, maybe some of those guys have similiar situations. Or maybe that is somehow factored into WAR, and I’m not aware of it.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 21, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WAR simply uses his stats
Rasmus has a .317 wOBA (league average is .330) so he’s been below average offensively. However, he has played excellent defense according to UZR, and he’s played the majority of his games in a valuable position. You add it all together, and you get WAR. Simple as that.
If you think that his offensive stats are inflated because he has been put in a position to succeed, please prove that. If not, then nobody is going to bother arguing with you.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 21, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It can't be proven.....
It is my OPIONION. I don’t care if anybody is going to argue, I simply wanted to bring up the point, and make sure I understood WAR.
Unless you think that his numbers against lefties would be better b/c he was facing them more often, then it only makes sense that his overall numbers would decrease (since they are better than his numbers against just lefties), if he were to face more lefties.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 21, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Opinion, not opionion.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if he was getting more at bats against righties
AS WELL AS lefties, that would likely balance out to a similar stat line as above. Colby’s been played on certain days by TLR. That doesn’t necessarily equate to being put in places he can succeed if Colby’s success conflicts with the success of, say, another outfielder. TLR’s got to look out for all his players (or at least I’m assuming that’s what you’d say — it’s not what I believe) and that may mean Colby sits against pitchers he would crush sometimes.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Aug 21, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, it's almost certainly true
He’s faced LHP in just over 20% of his PA, as opposed to about 28% for the team. And he’s had a 0.418 OPS vs LHP this year. Works out to about 28 PA’s vs LHP that he’s been protected- a surprisingly small number, actually, but adding 28 PA’s at his current rate drops his season line about 21 points of OPS, to .248/.306/.412.
He’s also sitting out a lot of games with “flu like symptoms” and stuff like that; if he was being asked to play on those days, it’s hard to believe he’d excel. Unless those excuses are TLR BS. Unfortunately MLB doesn’t have a “tummyache” split, as Ubeddie notes below, so we can’t tell how he actually performed while asked to play at less than 100%.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 23, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
but how many games has Rick played center field against right handed pitchers this season, relegating Rasmus to the bench. Sure, he’s lost 28 PA’s to lefties or so, but how many more PA’s would he have had he played in those games that Ankiel started against RHP, assuming he was 90% or better health wise?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 23, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not going to factor in a platoon situation.
Although, he hasn’t been platooned all that much. Ankiel only has 80 some AB’s against lefties this season and virtually nobody else has played in CF, so either Rasmus or Ankiel is getting those AB’s. Also, if you give Colby back all the AB’s that Ankiel has taken from him against righties, even with his current splits, he’s probably going to be better off.
Here’s the link to the FanGraphs page for centerfielders by value. You can sort at the top of the page by NL or AL, the linked page shows all of baseball.
Furthermore, there is no possible way you can project Rasmus’ hitting against left handed hitters to improve, be the same, or be worse over the next 80 AB’s. We simply don’t have a large enough sample size of AB’s against lefties to make that projection. So for you to say that “I think he’d struggle against lefties still” is a completely subjective argument. You can’t prove that in any way shape or form so it’s simply your opinion.
I wasn’t making a judgement on whether he can hit lefties, I was simply saying that he seems to play better when he’s playing every day, and considering that his defense and offense against RHP is superior to any other player playing CF on the Cardinal roster, he should be playing every day regardless of his left handed splits. There’s simply nobody on the roster that cranks lefties and plays CF well, so we should just take his defense and live with his offense on an everyday basis.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 21, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The most likely answer is that it is simply too small of a sample size to make any meaning of it
Splits take a long time to be established at the major league level, and Rasmus has always had solid splits in the minors.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 21, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
minor league splits
Career wise, Colby has solid splits. If you look at AA, the splits are more pronounced. In his first two years, Colby actually hit LHP better than RHP.
Split AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
05 vs. LH 59 .305 .354 .525 .879
05 vs. RH 157 .293 .365 .510 .875
06 vs. LH 129 .310 .390 .519 .909
06vs. RH 371 .278 .352 .447 .799
The last two years of minor league ball were
07 vs. LH 124 .250 .379 .460 .839
07 vs. RH 381 .286 .381 .577 .958
08 vs. LH 102 .255 .347 .353 .700
08 vs. RH 228 .250 .347 .417 .764
and I suck at tables.
by ubeddie on Aug 21, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colby PT
Tummyache and Sniffles aside, Colby will be starting CF against RHP. For the rest of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colby and Ank splitting time against the LHP. I don’t believe five or six extra starts against LHP will help Colby turn the corner this season/post season. On the flip side, five or six days off down the stretch probably will help Colby in the postseason.
If the Cards division lead continues to grow, I actually expect to see more of Ank with him starting five out of seven games rotating in for each of the outfielders. The offset to the division race is how close the Cards get to the homefield advantage (currently 3.5 behind LA). Homefield advantage over Philly could be huge.
by ubeddie on Aug 21, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Colby should play vs. lefties
Look at their numbers. Yes, Colby has had poor results v. LHP, but so has Ankiel. Ankiel has just stunk less. That is the only thing that Ank has over Rasmus this season…that’s it. Besides, there is evidence to suggest that Rasmus’s numbers have been suppressed to some degree vs. southpaws, AND it’s a SSS to boot. Rasmus is a better outfielder based on every useful defensive metric, he’s at least demonstrated a modicum of plate discipline, and he’s much much more important player to this team than Ankiel. Barring catastrophe, Rasmus will be the starting centerfielder of this team for many years to come, and as such he should play as much as he’s physically capable of playing.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 21, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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