May the Smoltz be with us
by chuckb on Aug 20, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintHis BABIP is a whopping .390, unsustainably high for a guy w/ just an 18.1% LD rate. His LD rate (18.1%) is lower than his career LD rate – 20.1%. He’s having an unusually high percentage of fly balls leave the ballpark – 14.8%. Combine that w/ the BABIP and it’s not difficult to argue that he’s been a victim of bad luck. His K rate this year is pretty strong (7.43) and his BB rate is better than his career average. Perhaps most importantly, he’s only pitched 40 innings so far this year. As Dave Cameron argues, anything can happen in 40 innings so there’s no need to get worked up about the high homer rate and the reduced speed on his fastball. The terrible lefty splits? That’s in a grand total of 101 PAs. Talk about a small sample. It’s about 4 games worth of PAs. Would any of us contend that Carp was washed up based on 4 bad starts?
I mentioned a week ago that Smoltz has been fantastic in innings 1 and 2 and in his first 25 pitches of the game. Batters have splits of .250/.342/.313 the first time through the order against him. To me, that’s more comforting if he’s going in the bullpen but, in light of the news that Tony and Duncan want him starting games, it’s slightly less comforting. That said, he’s still seeing swinging strikes on 16% of his strikes – a percentage higher than any of our starters – including Wainwright and Carpenter.
It’s tough to know what to expect from Smoltz. As I said, he’s thrown just 40 innings this year and it’s difficult to place a lot of emphasis on what he did last year, considering the fact that he threw just 28 innings in ’09. In ’07, he was 40 and threw 205 innings. He had a 4.19 K/BB ratio and a 0.79 HR rate. He was pretty tough on lefties -- .262/.327/.382 – in 432 PAs. That’s more than 4 times as many PAs against lefties as he’s had so far this season. As you’d expect, he was much better the 2nd and 3rd times through the order and was very good through pitch number 75. Still, he is 2 years older now and you’d expect the drop-off from age 40 to age 42 to be pretty steep. While we shouldn’t place a lot of emphasis on what’s happened so far this season, it’s probably foolish to look to his #s in 2007 as any kind of barometer on what to expect either.
Here’s what we do know – until he went on the D.L., Duncan preferred that Todd Wellemeyer reclaim the 5th spot in the rotation. I, for one, don’t expect Smoltz to be the Smoltz of old and while I’m adamantly opposed to Todd Wellemeyer ever throwing another meaningful pitch for the Cards (at least until he proves he can handle a bullpen role!), if Smoltz pitches the way Wellemeyer has this season, we’ll at least have the chance to win some of his starts. He wouldn’t be good, but we’d have a chance if he gave up, say…4 runs in 6 innings. So let’s compare the 2 this year:
| FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | LD% | GB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoltz | 4.94 | 7.43 | 2.03 | 1.70 | 18.1 | 42.8 |
| Wellemeyer | 5.23 | 5.67 | 4.07 | 1.36 | 21.3 | 36.5 |
and vs. lefties:
| BA | OBP | SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoltz | .440 | .490 | .758 | 3.78 | 6.48 | 3.24 | 8.06 |
| Wellemeyer | .342 | .421 | .606 | 5.92 | 5.92 | 2.59 | 7.60 |
Is there really any reason to think Smoltz would be any worse than Wellemeyer? Granted, we’re not setting the bar terribly high but, for a 5th starter, it could be worse. It could be Mike Maroth circa 2007. Yeah, those homers against lefties are troubling but he had 3 starts in Boston and one each in Baltimore, New York, and Texas. A lot of homers fly out of those parks. In fact, 3 of his 8 homers came in 1 start in Texas and another 2 came in 1 start in Yankee Stadium. 2 of the other 3 came in 1 start in Baltimore and the last homer came in Fenway. The 8 homers could be a little misleading considering the teams against which he pitched and the parks where he pitched.
I still say that we’ve got a hole in right-handed relief but maybe Hawksworth can fill it or maybe Smoltz can shift to the pen in the playoffs and fill the hole. Regardless, I think we’re better – if only by a little bit – w/ Smoltz on the roster and I think there are many reasons to believe he’ll be better than he was w/ the Red Sox. As Dave Cameron said (in the fangraphs article linked above):
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the decline in velocity...
… plus injury plus age plus (apparent) loss of control in the strike zone is worrisome (per observers’ reports). but at least a few of those things could be rectified through repetition, the peripherals are good, and there’s no downside.
so good signing, even though i don’t expect much. it can’t be worse than Welly.
everyone’s talking about how we only have to use the 5th starter 6 more times this year. if this experiment with Smoltz does work out and/or we extend our lead in the division, then we may want to rethink that. i’d prefer not to stress out the arms of Carp/Waino/Lohse, all of whom have had worrying injuries in the past year, any more than necessary. i believe Waino is now leading the NL in IP, and he has had some injuries in the past. Lohse still isn’t right, and i think we’d all agree that if we can give Carp a start or two off it would only be a good thing. having those guys fresh and strong could make the difference in a short playoff series. even if we don’t skip starts, giving them all an extra day or two or rest could help.
just saying.
I kinda
agree with giving some starts off, but at the same time, you never know, maybe with the starts off they go into a funk, or injure themselves because of too much time off, I like this signing because of the peripherals, if smoltz cant start we have a set up man, if he can start, wellemeyer is banished for at least this year. its a win-win with a cheap contract.
my problem is i grew up hating this guy because of the 96 NLCS playoffs against the braves. damn its going to be hard to root for this guy
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Yes,
but remember he beat the Astros to put us in the playoffs in ’06. I say it evens out.
I've made a huge tiny mistake.
by the red baron on Aug 20, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions
More than evens out
I would argue that without that win we don’t win the WS in 2006. We either don’t make the playoffs or have to use Carp in the SF makeup game or a tiebreaker with the Astros. Even if we still made the playoffs, it means no Carp on the mound for game 1 against SD and a whole different tone for the team. We should have voted him a WS share for that. He didn’t even have to pitch:
Maybe a WS share this year would suffice? :-) That would be a nice personal reward for him “doing the right thing” in 2006.
it just
leaves a bad taste in my mouth though, since i was 10 and at both home games, it was my favorite players final year. I hated Royce Clayton, and both games were hideous at busch i believe the braves score like 30 something runs in the games in st louis combined.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Tough for me to take as well
I live in Atlanta and endured much pain and suffering after our blowing a 3-1 series lead. But I really tip my cap to Smoltz for pitching that last game against the ‘stros in 2006. He wasn’t scheduled to, didn’t have to – in fact, his health issues dictated that he probably shouldn’t. Yet he stepped up and did it – unselfish move and the right thing to do. Not many pro athletes in this day and time would do that.
Okay
Saying “decline in velocity” is specious. Obviously, he would have been expected to lose velocity. He’s 42 and coming off of a major surgery!!! The question, is whether or not his velocity is still good, and it is about 91-92 MPH, which is fine for a starter. Furthermore, the fact that his swinging strike rate and contact rate are both better than average, leads me to believe that his stuff is still good.
As to his control, I actually took a quick look at it. Here is his strike zone plot this year:
And here is the average major leaguer’s:
While he is throwing more pitches over the middle of the plate in comparison to the average starter, he is also elevating fewer pitches.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
While he is throwing more pitches over the middle of the plate in comparison to the average starter, he is also elevating fewer pitches.
insignificant sample size to make those conclusion IMO.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously, you're right
That’s the whole caveat here.
No matter what you dig up, it’s still not going to be predictive due to the sample size.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if you are being serious but...
I do hate the argument that small sample size means you can wash away all results. Until you hit that magic number of ‘regular’ sample size it doesn’t count. It simply means it doesn’t carry as much weight.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right
But using stats like ERA or FIP in 40 innings is almost completely worthless. Other stats, like Pitch results, maybe me more meaningful.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
i agree
That is why I thought what you posted above with the locations of the pitches was a good thing. Than you dismissed it like it didn’t matter. So I wasn’t sure if you were serious or not
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
You can't sample size away past results.
Smoltz DID pitch more in the zone that the average major leaguer (intentional or not). Going forward, will it continue? That’s where sample size comes into play.
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Are you suggesting he
throw more sinkers?
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 20, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't you mean
THROW MORE SINKERS?!?!??
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
dave duncan says
why throw a more effective splitter when you can throw a sinker?
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I believe the term is MOAR...
from the back of the throat
(or is that St. Ives?)
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Aug 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, gosh.
Screw proper spelling. /irony
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Sample size be damned
Do you have the data on what pitches are being hit for home runs and extra bases? I’m hypothesizing here, but isn’t it possible that part of the reason the ball is going so far is that he’s still pitching like he’s throwing 93-94 when he’s only throwing 91-92, and consequently guys are squaring up the ball and pummeling it instead of fouling it off or popping it up?
Also, from reports that I’ve heard, his slider doesn’t have the downward bite that it used to have when he was a very effective pitcher. It’s flattening out, and that may be why lefties are killing him this season. He used to be able to bury the slider down and in and get strikeouts with it, from what I’ve heard, it seems to be hanging over the middle of the plate and getting crushed.
I guess I’d have to see pitch f/x data on Smoltz this year to get an idea of what has happened. Perhaps is all just a fluke and he’s fine. You can certainly make that case.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
his slider from what i have read is
His best pitch now, and thrown mostly to righties. The splitter has gone in the shitter. That’s a leftie exclusive pitch. See the SMOLTZ? Fanpost.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 20, 2009 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Small Sample Size
Hate to be a pain … but you are completely wrong here about small sample siize..
If the statement is:
While he is throwing more pitches over the middle of the plate in comparison to the average starter, he is also elevating fewer pitches
That is a matter of fact and accurate…
If the statement is:
He will continue throwing more pitches over the middle of the plate in comparison to the average starter but he will continue also elevating fewer pitches
Then the sample size is to small to make a predictiion,,,,
Looking at things in smaller intervals is okay when your trying to explain what’s happened during that course in time., and in fact the only way you can look at it
What?
I never made a prediction, I simply put out the data.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
everyone’s talking about how we only have to use the 5th starter 6 more times this year. if this experiment with Smoltz does work out and/or we extend our lead in the division, then we may want to rethink that. i’d prefer not to stress out the arms of Carp/Waino/Lohse, all of whom have had worrying injuries in the past year, any more than necessary.
To some extent that’s fair comment, but I’m not sure I agree – the whole “5th starter only needs to pitch 6 or 7 more times” meme is based on off-days, not on pitching the frontline guys on shorter rest. There’s a pretty good argument (and I think there may even be some statistical back-up, though I couldn’t find any with a cursory glance at the internets) that pitchers who are used to pitching on 4-days rest, pitch better on 4-days rest. Missing a turn in the rotation may not be a bad thing, but artificially pitching Carp/Waino on 5-days rest (with the other 4 starters plus an off-day in between) probably isn’t going to do much to alleviate their workload, and could potentially put them a little out-of-sync with the extra rest.
In summary – pitching guys on 2 or 3 days rest like the Brewers did with CC last year (which basically beat all the life out of him for the playoffs, leading to a rusty start in the one post-season game he started) is bad, but I think keeping your best guys on a solid schedule with 4-day rests is probably optimal. I dunno if guys like Carp/Waino will want to be rested, either.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
As an aside
Isn’t one of our starters unbeatable on more than normal rest? I thought I remember a (very small sample size) break down somewhere about this. I could be imagining it or mixing things up in my head.
This has little to do with how much we use our 5th starter. Smoltz would have to be fairly effective to bother with all that extra rest in my opinion.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I think it was Carp, but I won't swear to it.
I've made a huge tiny mistake.
by the red baron on Aug 20, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
It's Carp.
At least Carp from a couple years ago on extra rest was dominant. (not that he isn’t all the time anyway)
Right. at this point I don't know what difference there would be
But it was at least interesting. If Smoltz does mediocre as a starter and moves to the pen obviously it’s moot.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Yeah, I figured it was Carp too but I wasn't certain
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
we also have to acknowledge that
Our star pitchers are in the cy young race and (in pineiro’s case) a walk year. I think both carp and waino want to get as many innings and wins as possible to burnish their credentials for the Cy. Pineiro wants the money.
You might be able to bump lohse if he continues to struggle. But I doubt any of the three above pitchers would welcome rest unless they’re really hurting.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 20, 2009 12:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Carp seems to be actually getting stronger through the season
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
In both 2004 and 2006, Carpenter struggled in September
in 2004, his arm developed a nerve condition. His last 4 starts in 2006 (before post-season) was an ERA of 4.21and an opponent OPS of .731.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he's referring to that weird nerve injury Carp had in 2004
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
whether true or not, carp is still going to want to increase his counting stats like IP
and K’s to improve his chances. he’s going to try to go at least eight innings in every game from now on. that’s the only way he gets close to making up the IP he missed for the five starts he was on the dl. he’s just not going to be interested in a day of rest.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
man i love this move
honestly i wouldnt even mind watching him lose every fifth day as long as he sits down the first six batters in order every time. two or three starts like that and he realizes hes gotta go to the bullpen to set up franklin in the 8th.
jesus. how do teams hit us with carp, waino, and pinerio giving up one or two through 7 and then getting smoltz in the 8th and franklin in the 9th.
good luck baseball.
Pen
Just hope he doesn’t get pissy about going to the pen during the playoffs.
he won't
Smoltz is a pro and wants to win. He’ll contribute however the team wants him to.
What I like about this are the intangibles Smoltz brings: mental toughness and leadership through example. I think he may be a good mentor to some of the younger guys — a la Carp.
I like the fact he’s starting vs. SD. Big park w/ lots of room.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
yeah
also i think it’s a pretty foregone conclusion he’ll be in the pen in the post-season, and he knows it. Unless we have an injury, I just don’t see there’s any way that a 42-yr-old Smoltz pitches better than Carp/Waino/Pin the rest of the way, to deserve more than the 4th starter job. As a 4th starter is unlikely to make more than 2 starts, even on a world-series winner, it’s a fairly unimportant job anyway. Smoltz could quite easily pitch more innings in the post-season from the pen than he would as a #4 starter, so even from that point of view he might prefer that job.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Nervous
Just have to wonder why he refused to go to the pen for Boston, but will gladly go to the pen for us. Hope it works out cause it looks like the missing Playoff piece we need.
Boston fen tell me there was no room in their pen
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
he's not going in the pen
He’s starting.
He’s trying to rehabilitate his value as a 2010 starter. If he goes out there and strings five decent starts together someone else (maybe us) would take a chance on him in 2010.
He maximizes his options as a starter, a role he prefers, vs going in the pen and accepting whatever role he’s assigned.
Speaking personally I would thinking relieving would be annoying. You get called into whatever game at whatever time and you have no idea going in if you’re getting the call or not. That’s more of a challenge for a 43 year old than it is for a 23 year old.
Unless, of course, you're the closer
then you have a pretty good idea about when you’re going in. I think this is a lot of why there are some players that do seem really well suited for the role.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I wonder if there wasn't some promise from Theo
That he would start and that was why he went to Boston. Or maybe they really wanted him to go to the minors and work on it. I agree that it is curious as to why he is willing to go to the pen for us but not Boston.
my guess is there's just more room in our pen. boston's pen is sick. the RH
side of our pen is led by the RH reliever who sucks the most in the majors, and then it goes down from there.
if he’d stayed in bahstahn he would have gotten more long-relief type opportunities. here he would have a “title” – set-up guy. and to a closer who may suck but isn’t a 26yo douchenozzle.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
They tried to send him down
to work as a reliever in Pawtucket, but he refused assignment.
The difference, then, would be that the Cards could guarantee a ML relief gig, while the Sox probably could not. Still worth watching though. He said he is more concerned about net year, possibly implying that he wants to maximize his value by working at the ML level.
by schlafly seasonal on Aug 20, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think part of the problem in Boston...
was that their pen was full, and Boston wanted to send him to the minors to condition himself (less pitches, increased velocity) to work out of the pen and then come back up, and Smoltz didn’t want to go to the minors.
About that first start
he hasn’t pitched since 8/6. Some time off is probably a good thing overall, but he might come out a little rusty on Sunday.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Aug 20, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The more..
information I read on how Smoltz got to this point the happier I feel about the pickup. Yes, velocity and control appear to be issues but then again he’s only pitched 40 Major League innings since serious shoulder surgery and may simply be down to prolonged recovery time and fatigue. His peripherals would seem to support that kind of hypothesis as he’s lights out the first time through the order.
Even the home run data adds to my comfort level. Most of them he gave up in hitter’s parks. He only gave up 1 HR in Fenway (which actually depresses HR totals). With Busch playing as a pitcher’s park and his first start being in the endless plains of Petco I’m hopeful that we’ll see those numbers change.
I think this is a great pickup and hopefully we’ll see Smoltz get back to being the kind of pitcher we know he can be. If he does then maybe, just maybe, you consider going in to the playoffs with a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero and Smoltz. Especially if Lohse continues to struggle. If it doesn’t work out then Smoltz goes to the pen and you have a solid set up man ahead of Franklin.
It really is a great pickup.
he's lost
a couple mph off the fastball but its still at 91. that combined with an effective slider is a pretty good one two. he can get the righties out.
if he can get his splitter working against lefties, loshe might get some competition for the fourth spot.
what i love about this deal though is that it doesnt have to be best case scenario to work out. worst case scenario still fills a huge hole (our biggest) on this team.
The 40 innings of bad results...
did not happen in a vacuum. They were the result of clearly observed problems he was having on the mound, listed above by kindred. The point isn’t that he had an 8.33 ERA and was therefore bad, it was that he pitched poorly, regardless of the outcome.
Do you and Dave Cameron honestly believe that with all smart, sabermetrically-inclined folks that work for the Boston Red Sox, they just looked at his ERA over 40 innings and cut him? I’m not saying defer to the Sox and don’t come to your own conclusions, or that their decision was right or wrong, but I can assure you the tools they use to assess performance are quite a bit more sophisticated than either of you suggest.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
he did not really pitch so poorly
look at his k:bb ratio its like 3.5 and batters are just missing a ton of his pitches. his babip is up over 400 which is just ridiculous, and his hr fly ball ratio is over 14%. also ridiculous.
i hope our memories aren’t so short as to have already forgotten that boston gives up on people a little too quickly….
not to blame boston though they have to. they need power pitching not a guy who’s going to go out and give up 4 runs in six innings every five days. whereas that’s an improvement for us. and once october comes around, he slots into the pen as a shut down set up man to franklin.
this is the missing piece.
Don't forget
that for every day that Smoltz was on the roster, they had to pay him more than just his base. By cutting him, I think they saved like 2.5 million. I know its not a huge sum, but its worth noting. Also, they had other options to take his spot for far less than that 2.5 mi.
very true
but it’s also fair to say that they had better options. They’ve got a stack of young, solid arms waiting for a crack at the rotation, and they have 3 or 4 good-to-excellent pitchers in the pen. If Smoltz couldn’t hold down the fifth starter role, they’ve got guys like Junichi Tazawa (good, young import, tearing up the minors) and Clay Buccholz to come in behind the usual Lester/Beckett/Penny/Wakefield/Dice-K group. Even though they’ve had a couple of injuries, you could argue that the bulk of their options is considerably better than the Welly/Boggs/Thompson/Walters group.
They asked him to move to the pen in AAA to let Tazawa up, and he said (basically) no – they’re left with the option of keeping him on the 25-man roster as a spare part, using him as a long man (presumably creating some friction as he said he didn’t really want to work from the pen), or displacing one of their very good late-inning relievers. Honestly, look at their pen – they have FOUR guys with sub-4 FIPs who are all healthy, plus Takashi Saito, plus Ramon Ramirez (two relatively big-name guys who were excellent last year). Smoltz is, I guess, the odd man out. They took the risk of waiving him to try and get something in return.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
Tazawa and Buckholz are both better than Smoltz right now.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed...
I think it was a good move to cut him – given that he refused to go to the bullpen or the minors – and that it was a good move for us to pick him up. There’s really no downside considering what we have on hand.
If you believe mgl, 40 innings is really too short to come to any conclusion whatsoever, and of course he doesn’t think much of first-hand observation. I just think this attitude that they have at Fangraphs – that they know ERA is a useless stat, but the Red Sox don’t – is laughably arrogant and delusional. The Boston Red Sox organization has Bill James ON THE PAYROLL. There is no “old boys” wing of the Red Sox bending John Henry’s ear convincing him to do stupid things.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
I never dismissed
the work of the BoSox front office or “the tools they use to assess performance.” I said that the 40 innings he’s pitched this year aren’t a sufficient sample size to assume that he’s finished or that’s the way he’s going to pitch going forward.
Wagner on waivers....
do we want another aging, injured closer???
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4410591
I know he hasn’t pitched at all this season but come on you know they will want to bite!
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Now THAT
would be interesting. The St. Louis Cardinals’ Memorial Home for Old Closers.
I've made a huge tiny mistake.
by the red baron on Aug 20, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Get Juan Acevedo here STAT
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
ONLY WAY
to pick him up is if his fastball is 95+mph otherwise NO WAY
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
+1
If he’s throwing mid-nineties, then I’m very interested. That’s always what he was, a pure power lefty with a fairly straight fastball.
Wow, I was 100% not serious
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
i think were talking about wagner
acevedo was a righty
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Haha oops
got lost there
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
its ok
happens to all of us, like me with sabermetrics
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I was definitely
talking about Wagner. I’m only interested in Acevedo if he’s throwing 150;)
Eck
I’m sure the Eck is still rocking the Stache!
oh fuck
eckersley, i hated that mother effer, everytime he closed it out, he pumped his fists like he pitched the entire game and acted like he was the reason why the team won…he did have a pretty good porn stache though
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Still does....
"It reminds us of all that once was good, and could be again." - Terence Mann.
by Futility Infielder on Aug 20, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
You must REALLY hate K-Rod
(I do, for the reason you’ve identified)
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
not exactly a huge fan of him
and not to mention the Cards have his number
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
My uncle used to refer to him
as Upperdeck Eck – just b/c he saw him surrender a homerun once (my uncle is something of a pessimist).
by Toddius on Aug 20, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
for your uncles common hatred for him
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Not So Common...
….I always liked the Eck!
His 1990 season was the definition of ’Fights Out".
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
LOL
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
it worked for Troy Percival...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I was thinking the same thing
Frankly, I’d be curious how hard he can throw.
Though, hmm, I didn’t realize he was 38. hahah.
report i just read
on dailydish was 93mph and they said his slider is better then ever
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
but
we already have two lefties that arent doing half bad
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Only way I even LOOK at wagner is if the Mets are picking up the rest of his huge contract....
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
What if you are sitting across from him on the subway? Riding an elevator with him?
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unlikely
I rarely leave my mom’s basement during the summer.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 20, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I Thought..
…only Dungeon & Dragons aficionados and cowputer game geeks (both of which I am ) were the ones who trolled around their parent’s basements?
;=8)
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
i've never played 1sec of D&D
but i still rarely leave my mommies basement during day light hours
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Why would you!?
It is so bright out there
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
that's how I spent my jr. high and high school years!
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 21, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about that
Have you seen Dennys pitch lately? He’s been atrocious for going on a month now.
Wagner would be a great addition to the pen, but I don’t think I’d want to pick up his salary if I’m the front office — even a pro-rated $10.5M is a lot for a lefty reliever. He has an $8M team option next year with a $2M buyout. Again, I think he’d be good, but he isn’t worth the risk. If the Mets DFA him and we can pick him up for nothing and the prorated minimum I think it’s a great move, but I doubt they’re going to do that and pay his entire $8M for next year when they could just buy him out at season’s end.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
not really
i live in KC and catching Cardinals games is like waiting for the Royals to win a game
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Looks Like...
…Gary Sheffield will be available soon too – do we need a pinch hitter?
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
glaus for wagner
is stl better or worse?
by ball in play on Aug 20, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get him as a lefty.
I get him to use whenever.
Well, So Taguchi isn't on the team anymore
So maybe he’d be interested?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Great post chuck
I think, for the most part, you can throw away the stats you would normally use to evaulate a pitcher. xFIP, tRA, ERA, whatever – they are all pretty much useless in this small of a sample size and aren’t predictive at all.
The things that might be predictive (I don’t know if they are, but it would seem that they would be) are pitch results.
For example, Smoltz’ swinging strike rate is well above average and ahead of guys like Grienke and Peavy. As his his contact rate, and O-Swing. That tells me that his stuff is still good, and is still fooling hitters.
Thanks
i wonder
how many times smoltz has shaken off varitek/whoever else caught him, his unlucky streak could be attributed to lausy pitch selection and the catcher not thinking ahead of the batter
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Hey man, you put on a clinic at Fangraphs.
Really fucking good stuff in the comments section. Are you working on a broader piece?
Seriously appreciate the work.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I know
I love unanimous commenting. Of course, I pretty much had to stop when that other guy mentioned his inning by innings splits. I mean, those are 100% predictive. Also, “Smoltz is to old to be measured by FIP”.
There’s not much else to find. Smoltz’ pitches have still been good this year, above average, and he’s getting a very good amount of swings and misses. His command isn’t great, he’s been locating too many pitches over the middle of the plate, and he’s been pretty neutral in terms of Umpire error. He’s definitely been getting unlucky in terms of BABIP, strand rate and HR/FB ratio.
The only problem is I have no idea how these things will manifest themselves in the future. MGL’s post is very fitting here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sample_size_and_granularity_of_data/
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Anonymous,
but I get the point. =)
I read through that whole thread. Interesting stuff.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
So I gathered.
It was fucking confusing, though, with all those Nicks.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
smoltz might have corrected his mechanics
Smoltz said he tried to make adjustments on the fly during that game against the Yankees — taking his hands over his head in his windup, standing on the far left side of the rubber and dropping his arm angle — "not a recipe for success," he said.
But in two side sessions since he has been back in Atlanta, he has found a source of the problem, he said. His back foot was inching off the rubber, which altered his aim and hurt his location.
So there’s that. I’m in the “as long as he’s better than Wellemeyer camp.” And lookit the players. They’re so happy. Like little puppies with hair clippers.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
If nothing else, I'm happy that this may bring him confidence
“I found the problem and I’ve fixed it!” That’s gotta add confidence, right?
As far as actually taking care of the problem, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m honestly excited about the move, and I really hope he does well – I think he’ll certainly be better than he was in Boston and probably better than Welly. But I’m skeptical about these “fixed it!” claims. Remember Pineiro in 2007? “Oh, I was tipping my pitches! Now I’ll dominate!” (I admit its weird to use this example, because he has been great this year. But remember how awful he was in 2008, right after he “fixed” his pitch tipping?)
I guess the whole Mark Mulder saga really hardened my cynical tendencies. (Changed my arm slot! – I feel great! – Just need to stretch out my arm a little more! – Fixed the shoulder (again)!)
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
yeah
I’m … neither optimistic nor pessimistic. There are too many variables. I want to see it live.
And if anything, it’s a morale boost in the clubhouse.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
No doubt its a morale boost. And maybe we do catch lightning in a bottle . . .
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
MORALE
should be boosted pretty well then, because Lugo, DeRosa, and Halladay…i mean Holliday lol have been pretty good pick ups so far. as i have said before i hate saber stats. and the main factor thats been repeated over and over is hes coming of major shoulder surgery, and a small sample size this season, if he pitches like he has this year no harm no foul a 100g chance, if he pitches like we know he can pitch then extremely valuable and very good pick up. Its a wait and see, not be supremely pessimistic right away thing.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Why are you saying you hate saber stats in defense of picking up Smoltz?
Its the non-saber stats and observations that suggest he is done – the advanced metrics indicate that he still has some value left.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
i hate em
because i dont really understand them even with use in mlb2k9
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
that
and i go by reputation, heart, and trends from watching
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I'm glad that you aren't our GM.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 20, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I Myself Prefer...
… a nice balance of both. Sabr stats are very good at organizing the quantifiable, especially in ways that the standard stats can not – but they’re not so good with the unquantifiable (which is a lot in our universe). I find some moore useful than udders, but like a cowtractor its good to have access to a variety of tools to help you build yer barn.
:=8)
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
I don’t hate sabr stats, but rather that the people that use them use them as difinitives. as if there are no other considerations if the advanced metrics support their argument. give me a good talent evaluating scouts opinion of a guy before stats.
by callmesir on Aug 20, 2009 2:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yep, I'm with you on that Callmesir.
Statistics have their place, and that place should be a very large part of scouting and performance prediction. But they do not predict future performance by themselves. At best, they give us a decent idea of a player’s performance level, but things such as injuries and clubhouse issues can really change the way a player perform. It is just so hard to quantify every variable in life.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I'm just....
hopeful. I want Smoltz to be the pitcher he’s been at his best, even if he is 42.
I thought that Dave Duncan had discovered that Smoltz was tipping his pitches?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 20, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
One of the P-D writers has that article stored away for a rainy day.
It’ll come. Don’t worry.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
we're counting the days!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Strauss will publish it after his first start if its a good one.
Take that, spreadsheet guys!
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Rec
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
A whole lot of these Smoltz stories echo of Wellemeyer stories to me.
1. It was a mechanical problem that he has now fixed.
2. He is still missing bats, but his location is poor.
3. Lefties are lighting him up.
I think it is a grand experiement. I’m just not getting my hopes up because I think we have seen the last of a productive John Smoltz. I really do hope I’m wrong.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
but there's a MAJOR difference
being that Smoltz actually has a extended track record of success.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Interesting.
so the fact that he was a good pitcher about 1 surgery and 2 years ago may lead us to believe that he can still pitch? I hope he can. I really do. I’m just skeptical.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
It makes him more likely to pitch well
than a Wellemeyer that has had an endless history of struggle, and despite good performance last year, went back to struggling this year, in the exact same way that he used to.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
you gotta have goals
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I liked the Fangraphs article but
I don’t think the conclusion that the Red Sox overvalue ERA is necessarily correct. Smoltz was getting shelled and they can’t afford to have every 5th game be an automatic loss.
I dunno about the Red Sox pitching coach; maybe he’s no DUncan. heh.
The point is that just because Smoltz *was* getting shelled doesn't mean he would continue to
Also, there is a decent chance that he wasn’t getting shelled, but just unlucky, as his xFIP indicates.
Anyway, the point that Dave was making was that 40 innings is way to small of a sample to make any definitive conclusions from his stats so far. So it seems like this is a situation where scouting (or pitch f/x) is important.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
sure, I get that.
I really do. But at some point a team, IMO, has to say “good god we have no idea when this is gonna end.”
especially when tied for the wild card lead
and playing as poorly as they have over the last 2 months.
They really have no room for error, and they had more predictable options available.
by schlafly seasonal on Aug 20, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
"Pooholes Steals One From Dodgers"
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 20, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 6 recs
this comment was unecessary
St. Louis shortstop Brendan Ryan looks like a rapist.
true, but unnecessary
Does that writer seriously write "Pooholes" every time?
The picture is hilarious, Albert looks like the most magnanimous purse snatcher ever. He’s smiling like he knows he’s doing that old woman a favor, and he’s just happy to help out his fellow human being. But the “Pooholes” cliche is so very tired.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
it really is
Though that unfortunate headline was really… unfortunate.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh heh heh...
What’s that nickname the gave him? It was “sugar tits” or “twinkle tits” or something. I actually have mostly grown tired of the anti-A-rod phenomenon but this particular event will never not be funny.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
He missed his opportunity this year
to solidify himself as “Mr. April”.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
A-Rod is the most bush player in baseball
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Touche
Second-most bush player in baseball
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
i dunno he has some rivals
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Such as?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree completely
The non-believers really need some new material, or just give up and show a bit of respect to our generation’s greatest player.
That being said, dodgerblues is usually good for a laugh…provided you don’t mind some really harsh comedy.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 20, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
that shouldn't be a purse, it should be a marble rye
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Aug 20, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great Move
I love this move. He will get a shot at starting, which I’m sure he wanted – and I think could work out. If he continues to struggle, he will only get 2-3 starts before moving to the bullpen. But, there is an outside shot that he figures out what is wrong and pitches more like he did before his injury – in which case would be very valuable forth starter rest of way and in the playoffs (considering Loshe’s lingering injuries and struggles).
More likely, he doesn’t fair too well as a starter – but the 2-3 starts he makes and his abscense from the bullpen will not make the difference between winning and losing this division. We can then move him to the pen and have some of the regular season to see how he does before going to post season. Worst case scenario – we paid him 100k and he doesn’t pan out and is left in a mob-up role in the post season. best case we paid him 100k and he becomes a solid 4th starter or a very useful set-up man (possibly even a dominate one). No risk, high reward if ever I saw it.
OT: test
Is this compressing in the comment section?
And yes, more sizes and styles are coming as I get time today. I think the large one is big enough for a desktop wallpaper.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 10 recs
all credit to spants and co. for
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Fun stuff.
Originally my favorite movie title was “Indiana Holliday and the Bats-Thru-Trade” but nobody else seemed to find that funny. Maybe it’s just because Last Crusade is my favorite of the trilogy.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I can still make that
I’ll add it to the list.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm an ass.
But shouldn’t it read “The adventure in left field continues”?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
probably
It’s a wip, I was just checking the size on the comment sections. thanks.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like the red dotted line in the original
But I guess there’s a danger of it getting too cluttered
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
that is coming.
It will move.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
stupid real life! interfering with VEB
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like the plane in the upper left corner.
And the face you chose for Holliday is a perfect representation of his Lego head.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
it was a shockingly good fit.
At first I was like, great, I’ll have to mess with proportions and erasing and… oh look. His head slides right in.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Can I claim at least a little credit for helping inspire this idea?
Or were you already working on it and it just happened to fit what I was talking about?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
can i haz credit too? i was the one who commanded his nick name be Lego
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
The Lego thing was started by Rockies fans
none of you deserve credit.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I did.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
The map was my idea.
Yadi2Second sez so. I demand credit!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Children, children.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I invented the internet.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Al?
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Aug 20, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
No, actually, I'm Tipper.
Al steals all my good ideas.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Joke fail?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Befittingly what?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Definitely
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 21, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
the map part is all you, man.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Not only is this my avitar
But i received an Indiana Jones lego set as a gift from my boss today. Well played, sir.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
TLR's take on last night's win:
"These guys compete and they’re very gritty," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said.
by BTown Birds fan on Aug 20, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions
but other than Boog avoiding the BESS
I saw no great gain in GRIT. Well, Albert too, but his GRIT always goes up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I really hope that game
is remembered as the Nelly game/the BESS.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
It will stay in my heart as the Nelly game
Rob the jewelry store and tell them “Make me a grill”
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Boog fuckin' AVENGED
Manny stole his homer, and in return he dodged whirling shrapnel to nail him at first. boooo(g)yah.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
heh.
Shrapnel, wot?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Manny's bat exploded
This splinter about the size of the bat-head went boomerang-style towards Brendan. He ducked under and around it, fielded the ball, and side-armed to first.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think a 9th inning win
automatically increments your GRIT factor.
I've said it before and I'll say it again.
Pujols is the grittiest player I’ve ever watched play. The guy is a grinder who does all the little things and possesses all of those “intangibles” (I think, but don’t know, because they’re intangible). If he weren’t the greatest hitter in a generation, his grit would get far more play.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
BGH, you just don't understand true grit, then.
True grit can ony exist in the total absence of talent. Therefore, Pujols’s grit factor cannot be very high.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
John Wayne didn't have talent?
……. but….. he won an award?
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Aug 20, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It's almost a no risk move
Smoltz probably won’t be any worse than Wellemeyer et. al. in the fifth starter role or Motte in the righty set up role and he may be considerably better. He could fill one of our two biggest needs or possibly both if he is decent as a starter and goes to the pen for the playoffs. It is not surprising that a 42 year old would have trouble regaining his velocity after labrum surgery and I have a feeling the Bosox will regret that they weren’t more patient. If it doesn’t go that way we probably won’t lose any more games than we would with Wellemeyer, Motte, Boggs etc. throwing his innings.
oh look. USA Today is Tigers-in-three'ing *us*.
Why do they have to take the fun out of everything?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
When you sign a future HOF player
even when that future HOF player sucks holy ass this year (based on stats that a USA Today writer would look at), you get a lot of media attention and attribution.
Like when the Cavaliers traded for a washed up $25M a year Shaquille O’Neal, even though he singlehandedly fucked over Phoenix down the stretch last year by going for his own stats in order to entice some team to trade for him. Sure, the mainstream media thinks that’s a great deal — “Look, they picked up a future HOF player for next to nothing!!!”, even though the trade doesn’t really fill any holes offensively and makes them worse defensively.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
yeah, I just don't like hyperbole when there's still a lot of baseall left.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
see, I can't even spell it.
/fail
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
At least you know how to spell "hyperbole"
Not “high perbully” or “hiperboli” or whatevs.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
it's a pasta
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 20, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
It's delicious
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Its THE MOST DELICIOUS FOOD IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE!!!
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 11 recs
ONE MOAR REC!
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
And, we're serious.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I don't get it
While I might like (a little) the Smoltz acquisition, it’s no slam dunk. It doesn’t guarantee us freaking anything except maybe keeping Welle the heck away from the 5th starter slot.
Stop reading that rag.
After they did the Tigers-in-Three thing, I don’t give them much credence.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Isn't that actually the "Tigers in three" writer himself?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
really? no wonder.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I gobble google news
I’m a masochist, I know.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I seem to forget about www.hittrackeronline.com a lot for some reason
Very fun site. Not saying it means much, but here is Smoltz’s page.
He’s only given up one “no doubter”, in Yankee stadium’s already famous right field. He gave up another homer in Yankee Stadium, one in Fenway, three in Texas, two in Baltimore. Overall, one no doubter, four “plenty’s” and three “just enough/lucky.” They’re heavily skewed to right field, as should be obvious given the lefty thrashing he’s been getting.
Again, tiny sample size, not sure if this actually means anything. But there it is.
That site is so fun… Albert’s April grand slam off of Oswalt is still the fastest HR off the bat of 2009 according to them. It was clocked at 119.6 mph. Wowzers!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
You can get carried away on Hit Tracker and waste hours.
It’s a wonderful site.
So, his HR rate would be a bit different if he had merely been lucky? It would go from the very high 1.8 to the somewhat high 1.125? That’s very interesting to me, but who is to say that wearing the birds on the bat will change his luck…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah, great site
And in the case of Smoltz it probably provides the illusion of insight more than anything else. Still, 3/8 homers were barely so, and 6/8 (if I’m doin it rite) were in homer-happy parks. So maybe there’s a “there” there. But probably not.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Also
If you look at the PitchFX data that Flim posted above in the thread, his homers look like they’re coming on missed location in the strike zone and hanging sliders from what I can tell.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That's usually where homers come :)
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Not always though
It’s a fallacy to think that all home runs come off pitcher mistakes — that simply isn’t true. There’s good hitting too…
If this is an accurate assessment, it might also mean that his stuff just isn’t as good as it used to be, because he can’t do the things he used to do to get certain hitters out.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Actually, I'm pretty sure the majority of homers are hit off of mistakes
These are all homers hit in 09. Most are right in the heart of the plate.
Also, I don’t know how you make that leap in your second paragraph. If Smoltz is giving up homers on mistake pitches, how is that mean his stuff is gone? Aren’t hitters supposed to hit mistake pitches?
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
So...
a pitcher never throws a ball down the middle because he wants to? That’s garbage and you know it. Maybe he threw a get over fastball 3-0 and didn’t expect them to swing, is that a mistake? There’s an awful lot of those on the middle out and middle in parts of the strike zone, but suppose the pitcher was trying to throw a ball there instead of a strike. C’mon viva, you’re not that dense. MOST homers can be attributed to missing location, but not all.
I’m not making a leap — I’m simply saying that maybe they aren’t mistakes, maybe Smoltz used to be able to just zing it by a hitter with a belt high fastball and he can’t do it anymore. His INTENT may have been to throw a belt high fastball by the hitter, but since his fastball isn’t 95-96 anymore and is topping out at 91-93 that hitter might be able to catch up and knock it over the wall. The problem is that you have no way to measure intent. Hitters are supposed to hit mistakes — but not all of them do. There are plenty of mistakes that end up being a fly ball to centerfield or a ground ball to short, they don’t all turn into home runs. You’re dealing in absolutes here, and that’s the complete wrong approach to have.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
How do you possibly know his intent?
What is your argument here? In your first paragraph you said this:
If you look at the PitchFX data that Flim posted above in the thread, his homers look like they’re coming on missed location in the strike zone and hanging sliders from what I can tell.
Now you are saying this:
I’m not making a leap — I’m simply saying that maybe they aren’t mistakes, maybe Smoltz used to be able to just zing it by a hitter with a belt high fastball and he can’t do it anymore. His INTENT may have been to throw a belt high fastball by the hitter, but since his fastball isn’t 95-96 anymore and is topping out at 91-93 that hitter might be able to catch up and knock it over the wall.
What exactly is your argument here? Is Smoltz getting hurt because he is missing his spots, or because he is trying to blow it by hitters and it’s not good enough? And how do you plan to prove either of those points.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Calm the fuck down....
They LOOK LIKE MISTAKES, that that doesn’t mean that THEY ARE MISTAKES.
To know that, I would have to know what his intent was on those pitches, and I can’t possibly know that.
I don’t plan on proving any of it, I’m just saying that the possibility exists that he’s not the same pitcher anymore or that he needs a change of philosophy towards getting hitters out. I’m simply making a hypothesis.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
How was I un-calm at all?
BTW, not to sound like a Dick, but offering “Hypothesis” with no possible way of proving them doesn’t help anything. It just creates arguments that can’t be argued properly.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
rofl
maybe he was talking to himself with the calm down comment?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Drive by comments
like this one add absolutely nothing to the conversation.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well you figure it out then viva
Tell me, how do I go about asking John Smoltz what he intended to do on that pitch that Melky Cabrera hit 440 feet? Do I interview him and take notes?
Simply dismissing the notion as impossible just because you can’t prove it statistically is ridiculous, yet this is how these arguments always go with you, so I should expect it.
Can you prove to me that it was a mistake and that he wasn’t intending to throw the ball right there and it got hit? No, you can’t, so I don’t understand why I have the sole burden of proof — you can’t prove that I’m wrong either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
maybe you're thinking about mistakes wrong
You’re not gonna hit a lot of homers on balls in the dirt of balls over your head.
A pitcher also isn’t going to make a lot of pitches in hte dirt or over the head that are called mistakes.
So, it’s logical, I think, to say that most mistakes are strikes that are in a good position to hit.
That does not mean that everything in the zone is a mistake. That just means that pitches-hit-for-home-runs are usually a subset of pitches-in-the-strike-zone.
I think you and I
are on the same wavelength here.
Perhaps VEP isn’t understanding what I’m saying.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
So?
How does that apply to Smoltz?
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 22, 2009 6:39 AM EDT up reply actions
The turnover our roster has seen
Sure seems like we’ve had as many changes this year as any year I can remember, especially any year that we had a good squad. Four out of the 8 opening day starters have been replaced (Ank with Raz, Greene with Ryan, Barden with DeRosa, and Duncan with Holiday). Added Lugo, Smoltz, Hawk (from minors). Seen a change in the closer.
Good to see management trying to win now. We had too much talent not to. With Carp and Franklin getting older, and AP’s contract up soon, we needed to go “almost” all in.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
from Arby's = yum
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 20, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I mentioned this before.
If we do win the WS, we may very well give out a record number of rings. MLB.com lists 43 players with sortable stats that have appeared with the big club this year. A-freaking-mazing.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
All I know
is that as a person who HIGHLY dislikes the Red Sox, it will be quite comical if him and Lugo both finish out the season strong and Texas beats out Boston for the wild card.
I know are a lot of ifs, and they probably all won’t happen, but it will make me chuckle if they do.
On with the (good) youth movement!
longtime lurker, first post
The Red Sox fans at fangraphs really had their teeth out, no? Clear evidence of the dangers of granting too much statistical data to people with no idea how to use it. It was like a bunch of mad chimps flinging their feces at Reason.
I will disagree with aet15 above, though. I think that the Red Sox MUST make the World Series now, just so Pineiro and Smoltz can combine on a Game 7 shutout, with Lugo driving in the game’s only run…
by historicalagent on Aug 20, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions
You forgot
JD Drew striking out 47 times in a 7 game series and not looking like he cares the whole time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Don't we call that...
…pulling a Soriano?
by historicalagent on Aug 20, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Please don't soil my name like that
Drew has done enough to it
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
There's also the main character from Scrubs
He’s kind of a wiener.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I actually like that show
But after a few seasons I really started to hate J.D.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
It's like How I Met Your Mother
the show would be better if they killed off the main character.
Shut up, Fritz™.
I would love it if Scrubs was just about Turk and Dr. Cox and everyone else
J.D. seems to regress as the show goes on. I don’t care much for Eliot either. It’s like the writers actually made it a point that those characters should become worse human beings.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Regression to the mean!
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 20, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think they regressed way past the mean and just started an early decline phase.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Did he leave the show or something?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yep
Zack Braff left the show, and I believe Sara Chalke did as well. So they’re transferring the setting to a University where Cox becomes a Professor or something.
Last season was supposed to be the final season, but ABC decided to bring it back.
Albert Pujols is ridiculous.
Hm. Interesting.
Maybe they’ll stop doing that annoying thing at the end of each episode where whiny indie music plays and a J.D. voice-over explains that “sometimes in life things don’t work out the way that you want them to. The thing about being a doctor is that blah blah blah” and then someone admits that they were wrong.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
No Janitor either though
and he was my favorite character on the show. He’s on a new show too from the promo’s I’ve seen — can’t place the name of it though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
the janitor will be back, so will JD&Elliott
JD&Elliott only for the first 6 to help the transition. it’s really going to be an entirely new show.
Janitor has a new show on ABC that will probably get canceled pretty quick, so expect him back for good once that’s gone. Carla won’t be around a lot either. it’s now going to focus on Cox, Turk, and new med students at a college. the hospital won’t be the main set anymore either. so again, it’s going to be an entirely new show.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
step one: kill off jordan
The first three seasons are pretty good in general, but there was a noticeable quality drop-off when jordan’s character (coincidentally played by the creator’s wife) took more than an incidental role in the show, thereby continuing my least favorite sitcom cliche ever: the we-hate-each-other, that’s-why-we-love-each-other! romance.
Also, she’s not funny.
i still can't believe she made the 1st
American Maxim cover. WTF were they thinking?
Jordan is on Monica’s Cortney Cox’s “Cougar Town” sitcom, so her roll on new Scrubs will be very limited as well.
also, dan, we need you to put up Yadi2’s VEB glossary on the front page somewhere. it’s fallen off & we really need back up it. i was going to email you about this but i’ve been busy all day & have not had the chance.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Did your better half agree to make some piez?
"Ludwick, I could kiss you on the nuts!" - the red baron 7-29-09
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
the thing is
the blog software has no well-suited way of “stickying” fanposts. I’ll look at the options, though.
Definitely
Janitor makes the show
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
i would prefer
They don’t even make it to the playoffs. Let the Rays or the Rangers take the Wild Card
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay
But only if it happens in a particularly heartbreaking way.
I REALLY dislike their fans.
by historicalagent on Aug 20, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
i am pretty sure
That not going to the playoffs is pretty heartbreaking on its own
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
True
But there’s a difference between Mets (‘07) and Cubs (’09)
by historicalagent on Aug 20, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
So what are the Cardinals going to do with Wellemeyer?
When is he scheduled to come off the DL? I mean does he even have a role on this team anymore? I can’t see him even making the playoff roster. Do they just release him?
Stat Whore
Marquis treatment
The team won’t dfa him with only 10 days to go until rosters expand. There are two spots open on the 40 man so there is no immediate space need either. Leave him on the dl give him a rehab start in memphis and move him back on the rotation for mop up duty after Sept 1st.
What is the point of the BtB power rankings?
Some teams fall where they should, but many are way, way off. The Cardinals are 19th, behind the likes of the A’s and Diamondbacks. I get what all goes into it, but it seems like a pointless exercise to me.
V, b.
Agreed
I haven’t been able to figure out why we’re rated so low, even going by what they put into it. It doesn’t make any sense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Could part of it be
that with 30 teams all playing against each other, with a balanced schedule (I’m assuming that’s part of the simulation) that a lot of otherwise fairly even teams end up getting spread out quite a bit in the standings? There’s also so many things adjusted I wonder how far removed it ends up being. I assume the NL “penalty” is quite a hurdle to start with.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I have no idea
All I know is that two of the best teams in the NL are in the bottom 14 teams — which doesn’t make any sense to me whatsoever.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
To me
That alone discredits the whole thing.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
REALLY?!?!?!?!
Maybe it’s possible that their is a lot of luck involved in wins?
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
May games count just as much as August ones
…so its not the typical “Power” system you see all the time that is more reflective of recent games
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
What is the point of measuring it then?
The Cardinals last month of play has been entirely different from their first two months of play, so if we’re measuring the “power” of teams on a weekly basis, why wouldn’t we adjust the “power ranking” to get the current “power” of the team?
If I want to know how good a team is, I’ll look at their pythag record and compare it to their actual record — this analysis should give me more than that or it’s a fruitless exercise.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It serves a distinct purpose
What would a teams record be compared to the rest of the majors if they had neutral luck and a neutral league.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
no, no, i think he's onto something
do these pegicorn’s have wings of bacon & horns filled with bourbon?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Some varieties apparently have horns filled with scotch
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Teets full of beer ??????
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
I think "teats" is the word.
/nitpicking
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 20, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
If a Wizard can ride a pegacorn,
can he not give it teats of beer for me to suckle from?
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Are the hermaphrodites?
Or would unisex be the word?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 20, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Would they have Robocop in their lineup, too?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
No, only Mini-Pujols
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Aug 20, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with what you say it measures
neutral luck and a neutral league.
You’re not “neutralizing” you’re “normalizing”. There’s a big difference, and this method isn’t incredibly good at normalizing the data either, because of all the things that aren’t being adjusted.
As I said, you should be adjusting the NL up using the difference between a pitchers wOBA and a DH’s wOBA — you do that, I bet the league differences start to get a lot closer together.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Remember
You then have to penalize NL pitchers for facing DHs instead of a pitcher by the same amount. That is NOT the reason for the difference in league quality.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I have a feeling those effects won't cancel.
if you increase runs/G, you’re going to increase the noise in the results, which will then make the good teams look better and the bad teams look worse.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I linked it it below..
All AL teams combined have an inherent advantage of about a half win per year of interleague play due to this. Nothing that even comes close to mitigating the talent discrepancy.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
you missed my point
my point was not about the ‘average’ AL team. It’s about the variance between the good ones and the bad ones
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
First
What things aren’t being adjusted?
Second, the “normalization” is based off of interleague records over the psat 3-4 years, in which the AL has raped the NL.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
True
Although when we’re talking thousands of games played, don’t you think there might be a sample problem with the normalization of data from a small number of those interleague games? Does everyone play everyone else in interleague? No, they don’t. Do all of the good NL pitchers always throw in interleague games? No, they don’t. Is luck not involved in interleague games? There is a significant sampling issue here.
It’s saying that the Cardinals are 12 games better than they should be based on league adjustment, which signifies 12 wins based on luck. If totaled all that up for every team on here, don’t you think we’d have a significant number of games won or lost by luck? Probably more than the number of interleague games total for this season? I would say yes. it’s taking a trend and calling it the truth.
They’d be better off taking a league average of everything and comparing them down to a certain number of runs and then deciding — sure, the AL probably comes out on top, but probably by a lot less than the differences in the league that they’re currently using.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't think thats the point
A pythag record is good for determining who has over/underperformed their record based on what their rs/ra allowed data indicates. This exercise is more focused on erasing divisional lines, playing thousands of games, and seeing where teams would expect to fall.
To your point though, it is based entirely on actual data, not projections of what the current lineup would be expected to produce.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I'm not asking for projections
I simply want to know how good my team is right now, at this very point in time. You can’t do that by factoring in data from April and weighting it the same as data from yesterday. Things change in that amount of time — certain players get better, certain players get worse, new players are put into the lineup.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Power Rankings
In every other sport I’ve seen them used, attempt to do exactly this, and thus weight performance historically. The BTB ranking doesn’t do this, so it should be called a power ranking, imo.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
shouldn't?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Power Ranking can mean different things
In this case, Justin has it meaning which teams have played the best so far? You can name it whatever you want.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If I sent you to the NFL Standings page
at espn.com, you’d expect to find standings there right? If you found expanded standings that adjusted for win/loss by points scored, than it shouldn’t be called “Standings” because that’s not what “Standings” is universally meant to display.
Same problem here — He shouldn’t be using power rankings, because power ranking polls in every other sport are meant to put together how good each team is at the present time, not how well they’ve played up to this point. Calling it a Power Ranking is confusing and it makes people like me completely discount your stat because you’re calling it something it’s not.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That's just odd
when looking at this, as Colorado is ranked seriously.
when the expected winning % of the Cardinals
Is sub .500. Yes it discredits the whole thing. It is saying we have won 20 games by luck. Even though we have a positive record against the AL we get docked 15% of our winning % vs the AL.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Its not really saying we have won 20 games by luck...
in fact our exW-L w/in the league is above .500. We get hammered in the league adjustment as do all NL teams.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
The whole league adj seems silly to me
Especially since we have a winning record against the AL
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, that's a representative sample
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree it is a representative sample
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, that’s a representative sample
vivaelpujols
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
What we have here is
a sarcasm fail.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
See., I thought the entire idea was that it's not at all based on games.
Although, I’m sure it uses data from actual interleague games in the league adjustment, but whatever. Isn’t it just trying to strip teams down to their most basic “performance” data and then throw that all into a league/park/schedule/grit/allergies/what-have-you pot and pretend that all teams play each other in some huge 30-team round robin?
I don’t think a ranking like this could possible tell us all that much, but I think part of the problem is that it’s very easy to look at it and think that it’s trying to do something that it is not.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
"adjusted" should come before "pot"
Blah.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Wait.
Franklin’s saves. They’re all just luck. ’Cause he sucks.
That’s gotta be the deal here.
That may be
but there’s simply too many flaws in their measurements. The teams I’m talking about SFO and STL, haven’t outpaced their Pythag all that much, so why is it that the power rankings kill them? According to this, our record should be BELOW .500 even though we’re now 16 games over. By the expected win %, we should be 58 – 64. If you take out the league adjustment (which is fucking stupid by the way, the AL teams get to play with a DH (and get to use veteran hitting studs as DH’s when they wouldn’t play anything in the NL), so of course their power rankings are going to be higher — you should be adjusting the NL UP instead of down) it still has us at a .500 clip which is still quite a bit below where the Pythag record has us. You’re telling me there’s a 10-12 game “luck” factor? If there’s that much luck, why do we even bother measuring anything?
The power rankings are simply trying to measure everything and then adjust it to league, which seems to work out about as well as trying to predict the weather when adjusting it to the average temperature for the day — i.e. it isn’t all that predictive.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I overall agree with your sentiment
But I think, technically, the ranking isn’t saying that “our record should be blow .500”, but rather that if there were no divisions or separate leagues and all 30 teams played each other, then we’d be below .500.
Doesn’t mean the latter is true either, however.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
It does a pretty shitty job of finding that out
I’ll give it that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I am very skeptical too.
I mean, if all teams played against each other… is there a method by which it takes care of the difference in lineup construction? Do all teams get a DH or a “projected DH”? Do all teams split the difference and get half a DH in their lineup? Doesn’t this method take data from an unbalanced schedule and use it to try to gauge what would happen in a super-balanced schedule?
I think there are actually cool idea behind it, but I also think something like this is just too far removed from reality to be able to tell us much.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'm not going to debate this with you
because you obviously believe it and I don’t, and I know where this conversation is going to lead.
Believe whatever you want, Jesus Christ.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What a nice compliment fourstick!
I know you and VEP don’t always get along, but calling him the Christian savior is a very nice way to call an end to the debate! Kudos!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
It isn't trying to be predictive
And can you please outline the problems you have with the methodolgy, because apparently you think Pythag is better.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not asking it to be predictive
When I look at a power ranking, I want it to tell me exactly how good my team is at the current point in time. This isn’t a power ranking, it’s an analysis of all 30 teams based on league average data of all players on those teams over the entire season.
Do you honestly think that the Cardinals roster, currently 3rd in the NL standings, is actually the NINETEENTH best team in the league? If you do then this conversation is over, because I find that in no way plausible and thus I don’t put any stock in their rankings.
I’m not asking it to measure what Pythag measures, I could just use Pythag to get that. I’m asking it to be a power ranking, and it simply isn’t what a power ranking is supposed to be.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think the Cardinals have *played* like the 19th best team so far
That is the purpose of these power rankings, to explain how each team has played so far.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Care to elaborate?
This team has some really bad stretches playing against weaker competition in the NL.
Much of this debate is rooted in the strength of the two leagues – we can’t be blinded by the fact the NL is way worse.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I don't understand what that has to do with anything actually
You might as well put up a graph that shows the AL winning the last 12 All-Star games — it means about the same thing.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
No, because there is a sample of about 1200 games in interleague play
vs. a 12 game sample in the All Star break.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Does the BtB thing use a multiple interleague years in the adjustment?
And if so, is there some sort of weighting to make the more recent years more important? Obviously the rosters are gonna change a whole lots in 5 years.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'm not sure exactly what that means
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
It's basically a muli-year average
So it does some regression on it’s own.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
But does interleague data for say, 2006 count as heavily as from 2008?
Sorry, my brain is getting taxed by this whole debate.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Yes
I believe. I’m not the right person to ask though, try All4tookie or brackenthebox.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah. if that is the case, I don't understand why
interleague performance from years ago should have anything to do with determining who has been “playing the best” this year.
But a lot of this is kind of over my head. The guy who does these is clearly very clever but it seems abstracted to the point of utter confusion to me.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Pegacorns are too real for reality.
I feel it in my heart how awesome they are.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Its really the only decent way to...
get a decent league adjustment. You can’t base it on just one year’s worth of games, that’s not enough data. From the link VEP posted before, the difference in leagues is actually quite larger but they take a significant haircut to be conservative.
And yes I used second person and I don’t care.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Hm. I understand the sample/data issue, but it still seems weird to me.
It’s like saying “I want to study a rare disease. But it’s so rare that I can’t tell much by studying just the people who have the disease. So, I’ll add data taken from people with similar but different diseases until I have enough data to draw some sort of actual conclusion.”
Am I totally off base?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
No, not at all
Think of all the problems – players switching leagues, draft impact, injuries, etc. It is by no means perfect. It’s kind of a 10,000ft view and tries to avoid being extreme in either direction because there is no way to directly compare the two.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I guess in the end it's not really something worth getting worked up about
It’s like trying to compare players from different eras. I understand that it’s a valiant effort but it just seems to have so many problems.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
For everyone involved:
Also,
I am barely qualified to opine on the subtleties of bottom of the vat domestic light beers, much less advanced mathematics. So there is that.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Well, there is no accounting for taste.
Sure, I know that Sam Adams might be “better” than Schlafly according to some expert, but damn it I’ll take the Schlafly because I like it better.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Has every team
played every other team in that sample? If not, then your sample isn’t reflective of either league then is it?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Why not?
We’re measuring strength of entire leagues right? In order to be accurate, then every team should play every team. If you have the same teams playing the same teams every year, does that mean that the league is better or that the matchups better favor a certain league?
I’d bet on the latter.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
So which do you think is the better league and why?
Because this doesn’t hold water:
If you take out the league adjustment (which is fucking stupid by the way, the AL teams get to play with a DH (and get to use veteran hitting studs as DH’s when they wouldn’t play anything in the NL), so of course their power rankings are going to be higher — you should be adjusting the NL UP instead of down)
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I think the AL is a better league
for a variety of reasons, but mostly because they have more high payroll teams and a smaller league and they gave the NL the Brewers, who aren’t exactly a powerhouse.
My problem isn’t with that, I concede it’s a better league, just not nearly that much better than it’s being given credit for, and using a moving average of interleague play is a shoddy way to measure the difference between leagues.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Large differences between FIP and ERA and tRA
FIP has the Angels one of the worst pitching squads while tRA has them one of the best
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The Angels tERA reported by Justin is 4.82
The Angels FIP reported by FanGraphs is 4.62. That is a .20 point difference, not a Large difference.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Aren't tRA and tERA different stats, though?
Or am I confused about something. I’ve been trying to keep these things straight in my head, which is the only reason I’m jumping in here.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
tERA is tRA scaled to ERA instead of RA
FIP is… FIP.
Fuck, that’s a lot of acronyms.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh
So tERA is just the same thing as tRA but scaled to be easier to digest, then? I thought they were actually computed differently.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I wish Graham would just cave and
scale the fucking stat to ERA to start with.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
good call
Not sure what I was looking at. Not that
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't like your NL vs. AL argument
The AL is undoubtedly the better league, and its not because of the DH. AL teams have to spend money on DHs that NL teams save and put to use on the roster elsewhere.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
You're kidding right?
The AL is undoubtedly the better league, and its not because of the DH. AL teams have to spend money on DHs that NL teams save and put to use on the roster elsewhere.
Perhaps we should normalize for payroll then? And number of teams in the league? You don’t think it makes a difference that the AL has two fewer teams and the NL has 2 more teams in which pitchers hit? You don’t think that makes a difference? Phew….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What?
I didn’t say we should normalize for payroll – we shouldn’t. That’s what makes the AL a better league..they spend more money and have more talent.
NL pitching staffs get worse switching leagues – you can’t ignore that.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Agreed
But adjusting for league based on interleague play is just stupid. If everyone played everyone that would be one thing, but they don’t, and the same teams play the same teams every year, so one team sucks and another is awesome every year, then the league with the good team is going to have an advantage.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
No, because if there is imbalance in one matchup
Then there has to be the opposite imbalance in another one. So if all of the 90 win teams in the AL played the 70 win teams in the NL, that means all of the 90 win teams in the NL would play the 70 win teams in the AL.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Then there has to be the opposite imbalance in another one. So if all of the 90 win teams in the AL played the 70 win teams in the NL, that means all of the 90 win teams in the NL would play the 70 win teams in the AL.
Prove it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What?
You haven’t proven that that AL has more favorable matchups.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 21, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
that doesn’t make much sense to me. And in fact it really can’t be correct if the AL is beating the NL in interleague play. there are more wins at the end of the year in the AL then.
Also, I really don’t think that using the interleague play record is a valid dataset for proving or disproving this argument, as roster construction is different for the two leagues – yet that is not allowed to change for interleague matchups. I would hazard to say that the NL is at a distinct roster disadvantave in AL parks, while the AL is only slightly disadvantaged in NL parks. No numbers to back that up though….
Hmm..
This study looked at exactly that and found that the AL has an inherent advantage that equates to roughly an extra half a win in total for all AL teams per season. So there is an advantage, just a very small one.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
It's to show how well each team has been playing
I wouldn’t put so much emphasis on the “power rankings” part of it. It’s the data, and the eW% that’s more interesting (to me).
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that's what I mean...
I can see how the individual inputs are valuable by themselves, but throwing them together to inaccurately rate the teams makes little sense.
V, b.
How does it "innacurately" rate the team?
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It thinks the Cardinals are a 58-64 team
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I thinks the Cardinals have played like a 58-64 team
It isn’t a projection.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
probably jumping into this convo too late
but what?
the cards have played like a -6 team?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Since when is he projecting anything?
If it’s saying the Cardinals have played like a 58-64 team based on talent and league adjustment, then it’s saying that they ARE a 58-64 team. Good God.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
No it's not
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That is simply
The link is discussion about UZR but the idea translates well. All he is saying is that the team has performed like a 58-64 team in a neutral league, nothing more, nothing less. Not that they ARE a .475 team, just that that was what happened.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I would say...
ranking the Cardinals as the 19th best team in baseball is pretty “inaccurate”.
Not to mention the teams on the list that are much, much too high.
V, b.
Is this just a semantics misunderstanding then?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I like the idea
I question the implementation. Without getting into the details, any power ranking that has the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks as the 13th best team in MLB (ahead of our Cardinals, too) is faulty.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
How had we played like the 14th-best MLB team as of May 26 but 19th-best as of August 18?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
Part of that could be that, even if the Cards theoretically improved from May 26 to August 18, there might be other teams who improved more, or something.
A lot of the problem is that teams’ actual records are based on playing mostly within their own league. Then, you take the teams in the separate leagues and give them unbalanced schedules so that they play more games against their division than they otherwise would.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Well then let me rephrase
How did the Cardinals play like a .504 team up to May 26 but like a .478 team up to August 18?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
See, I have no clue
I don’t totally understand it, in its entirety. My only guess is that somehow we fell based on comparison to how other good teams have performed.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Can we talk about why we are still ranked below the Cubs at least?
By the objective measures that I understand (WAR, Pythag, etc.) we are better than them this season.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Wow, this is a pretty angry conversation...
…about something that I’ve been doing most of the season. I will say that I have noted that the strongest critiques are almost always from fans of teams ranked poorly. FWIW, my Reds come in last, while my most-hated team, the Yankees come in first. ::sigh::
Anyway, some points:
1. The league adjustments are based on interleague records, and (loosely) the studies done on players swapping leagues. The two match up. And those league-change studies are the basis of the typical adjustment of a half-win a season for AL players vs. NL players most people use (though FanGraphs does nothing at this point, afaik).
2. If you don’t like the league adjustments, just look a the eW%lg column. You can click on it to sort by it. That column essentially assumes no difference in quality between leagues. I don’t think that’s true, but it makes some people happier.
3. If you’re going to compare actual records to expected records, you really should use the eW%lg column. It’s quite literally a component pythagenpat estimate of W%. The eW% column assumes league adjustments, which is much more hypothetical (what if you took all the AL and NL teams and threw them into one league).
4. Sorry to hear some folks don’t like the name of the list. This is the first time in 3 months someone has objected to it, so I think I’m going to stay with it.
5. As Sky mentioned at BtB, there are a lot of things not in the calculations yet: baserunning (beyond SB & CS), bullpen leverage, and strength of schedule being the biggest of them. And there are reasonable criticisms of how I’m implementing tRA, park effects, etc. Happy to talk about that. My feeling is that most of those things, if implemented, will have pretty small effects. But I don’t know that.
6. As for the Cardinals, through Tuesday, here’s what I have:
True W%: 0.562
Pythag W%: 0.548
eW% lg (without league adjustment): 0.504
So yes, definitely a “miss” low. In fact, it’s the second-largest “miss” in baseball, behind only the Giants. Why? Let’s look at runs scored and runs allowed:
Actual RS (after park adjustments): 556
Estimated RS (after park adjustments): 542
So eRS is 14 runs shy of the actual total. I don’t know why that is—I literally just take actual RS and wRC from fangraphs and park-correct both of them in the same way. Could be lucky, could be baserunning, could be something else. That’s not a small disparity, but it’s not huge either at this point in the season. We can add in some baserunning, but BPro has them (looking it up) at +1 run above average, so that doesn’t help much.
Actual Runs allowed (park adjusted): 502
Estimated RS (park adjusted): 537
So there’s the biggie. I’m estimating 35 more runs allowed than actually has happened. Looking quickly, the Cards tERA is 4.11 whereas their FIP (as I do it, anyway) is 4.04. Pretty close match there, but if I used FIP instead of tRA to estimated runs allowed it comes in at 523 RA. Definitely better.
Fielding-wise, UZR at fangraphs has them (or did through Tuesday) at -13 runs. THT’s team fielding stat, which is a mesh of DER and batted ball data, has them at -3 runs. I’m using the average of the two, which is -8 runs, in the power rankings. You could argue we should drop down -3 runs if you don’t like UZR, though I think UZR’s a better fielding estimate than THT’s (and studes has concurred with me on that point in the past). Thinking about it, though, I’m not including Molina’s defense in any of this, so I think that would help justify going to the -3 runs.
So if we do everything in a direction that makes the Cards look better (which is not exactly the objective way to make a decision, but whatever), we get an estimate of 518 runs allowed vs. 543 estimated runs scored. That would put the component pythag at 0.524. Closer to reality than the 0.504 I had before, but still shy of the actual W%. And again, I’m doing everything here to make the Cards look better, which almost certainly will have the opposite effect on other teams. In other words, these decisions aren’t necessarily the “correct” ones just because the make the Cardinals look better.
So, I guess what I’m saying is that why I can certainly sympathize with folks being upset that your team is ranked lower than you’d like, I think it is the case that, at least based on the component stats I’m using, that the team might be “overperforming.” Whether that’s due to lucky, leverage, or something else, I have no idea. But that’s what the BtB power rankings do—they give you something else to look at when evaluating the relative strength of teams.
Hope that helps. And look on the bright side—with all of your additions this season, the Cardinals are almost certainly a better team than their component stats would indicate! :) Enjoy the ride.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
by JinAZ on Aug 20, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This post needed less reason
and more angry accusations.
I’m just not sure you’re going to be able to hang out here, Justin.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Who's angry?
I’m simply saying that it doesn’t conform to what a reasonable person would expect from something called a “power poll”. It’s simply another way of measuring team performance statistically using runs. Nothing more.
I haven’t emailed him about it because I don’t care to do so, mainly because I don’t find the exercise to provide any value.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I was thinking...
…about just saying that this is a Reds fan’s way of sticking it to the Redbirds. ‘Cause, you know, my team sure as heck isn’t sticking it to anyone right now.
But I decided against it. Frankly, given the Reds’ current rank, I find this whole ranking thing kind of depressing. I have to look at the actual standings to feel better about the Reds. And that’s really sad, because even in reality, the Reds kind of suck.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
Are the park adjustments
Based upon this year or multiple years of data?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on the stat
Though all are multi-year, regressed park factors.
For straight-up runs data—actual runs scored and allowed, or wRC from fangraphs, I use Patriot’s 5-year regressed park factors. Stadiums where we don’t have 5 years yet (like Busch, i think) get more severe regression.
For tRA, I use David Gassko’s batted ball park factors. If I remember right, they are based on 3-years of data and are regressed (though he didn’t elaborate on how he did the regression).
UZR has built-in park factors. I don’t touch it. THT’s team fielding stat does not have any AFAIK, and I’m doing nothing to do those data except converting them from plays to runs.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
Thanks for taking the time to break all of this down.
And for stopping by.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I really think most of the problem comes from what people expect when they see "power rankings"
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
People also expect Ryan Howard to appear on an MVP list, but I choose to use MVP in a way that does not include that name.
Seriously, though, any suggestions for an alternate name? BtB’s Rankings of Performance So Far doesn’t really have the same ring.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
It's pretty unambiguously explained right below the title
I don’t get what the problem is
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Here are a few
- 2009 Expected Team Performance Metric
- Normalized Yearly Win Percentage
- Pythagorean Win %
All those do a much better job of explaining what the poll is about than “power rankings”. When I see the term “power rankings”, I assume I’m looking at something about where teams would stack up currently based on their current roster construction, how well their playing, etc. My problem with this ranking is that it’s blatantly obvious that if you weight the May/June Cardinals the same as you weight the August/September Cardinals, your not weighting two things that are the same, they just have the same name. There would be numerous ways to get rank teams currently if you have the time to do so and it would be a much more interesting ranking than this one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Pretty wordy, and they sound a bit too stat-geeky for my taste.
This is still the first time in three months anyone has been bothered by the name. I’m just not that worried about it.
It’s an overall ranking of all the teams by a specific methodology. We could just call it “BtB MLB Team Rankings” or something, but Power Rankings is more fun.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
How bout
League and Park adjusted luck free rankings
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you got me
I don’t know what else to call it. I’m just sensing that that is the reason for the confusion/disagreement. Maybe “True Performance” rankings or something like that?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Really?
You mean nobody complains when their team is ranked high by your metric? I find that really, really hard to believe….
/end sarcasm.
In all seriousness though, I understand what you’re trying to do here, and I’m fine with it. I just don’t think it tells us anything particularly informative.
My particular complaint is that you’re essentially saying that the May/June Cardinal team is the same as the July/August Cardinal team, when that’s clearly not the case. With the current roster construction all season long, do you think that the Cardinals would rank 19th? I’d be shocked if they were that low, which is why I take umbridge with your “power rankings”. If you had some way to rank the teams based on the season by giving extra weight to how they’ve been playing lately, I think this would be a more informative metric.
My other issue is the way you adjust for league. I really have a hard time believing that using interleague play to gauge how much better one league is than another is a really poor way to do so, because everyone does not play everyone else. Sure, the AL is better, but from what I can see you’re giving them nearly a win and a half edge over the National League, when most estimates that I’ve seen would give them around a half win edge. That may not seem like a lot, but it is going to re-order your list somewhat.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
A few things
I’m not saying the current Cardinals team isn’t any better than the pre-trade Cards team. Basically, what I’m saying is that if you take teams with these component statistics, and let them play 10,000 games, this is how we’d expect them to turn out. I’ve mentioned a few times in my write-ups and comments over the past months that I think the Cards have made themselves so much better that they’re almost certain to overperform any ytd team stats-based estimate of their true talent. But that’s what VivaElPujols’s playoff odds calculator is for—he does make that adjustment, plus works in some actual pre-season projections for good measure. Good Stuff.
As for the league adjustments…this is a debate we’ve gone over a lot. At this point, I’m happy to hear some alternative suggestions on how to estimate the league disparity. The problem is, people are quick to criticize, but other than ignoring it people don’t seem to have specific suggestions on what to do. I will say that I’m using 5 years of interleague data, which is over 1000 games. We could incorporate strength of schedule somehow, but my feeling is that it’s still a pretty good indicator of talent differences across the leagues.
Also, that the half-win edge you mention is a per-player season adjustment (i.e. an average AL hitter is a 2.5 WAR player, but an average NL hitter is a 2.0 WAR player). So what you’d need to do is take that half-win and multiply it by the number of player seasons (position players and pitching) that you get. It turns out that if you do that, you get almost exactly the adjustment that I’m using (see here for a slightly more detailed description of this). Actually, you get a slightly larger adjustment, but we dropped it by 10% a while back because we were worried about a confound that was causing “double-dipping.”
I know the league adjustment is jarring. But part of why it looks so bad for the NL, aside from the genuine inferiority of that league, is that there are very few clearly above-average NL teams, even without the league adjustment. By component pythag, we have the Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies, D-backs (yes, that one’s surprising), Braves…and that’s basically it. That’s 5 of 16 teams that are “clearly” over 0.500. In the AL, though, we have NYA, BOS, TB, TOR, CHA, TEX, and LAA. That’s 7 of 14 teams that are clearly above average before any league-adjustments are made.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
by JinAZ on Aug 20, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What color is the sky
in the world these teams play in? Does that come into play with the results?
Shut up, Fritz™.
Thanks!
For the explanation, and for dropping by. Keep up the good work!
Play ball!
by IL and StL Fan on Aug 20, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for popping by.
Awesome explanation of what you do and why you do it.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
If Weaver and Suppan (The Jeff's)
Can get us a WS Trophy, I have to like the idea that Smoltz can contribute positively to the ‘09 playoff camapign. I’ve enjoyed as much as anybody Piniero’s success this year, but I’m not sold that he can keep up his mastery for the rest of the year. I leave it up to the great minds on this site to see if Piniero has regressed to the mean the past 5 starts, but it certainlly seems that way from a guy who watches nearly every game.
It’s a long shot I know (poor choice of words??), but I had a dream last night that Smoltz caught fire, worked out his poor mechanics to date and was lights out the rest of the way, effectively winning the #3 spot in the rotation. We sent Lohse to the bullpen and the Cards suddenly became the instant favorite to win the NL. Of course Padma Lakshmi was also in this dream, which shows this may have certainly been a ’special ’dream- one in which I would have been fine staying asleep for longer.
Any way this works out, it will at least be exciting to see what happens from here (inevitable anyway) considering the front office has decided to do their best to win another Championship because they know the world ends in 2012 anyway. That’s all I got, thanks for listening.
NorCal CARDS FAN
thanks for the Smoltz - Wellemeyer comparison chuckb
it’s pretty safe to say that Smoltz will be at the very least as good as Welley was. which was not absolutely atrocious for a 5th starter. by the time the playoffs roll around, Smoltz could have gained a mph or so on his fastball, and better control.
also I liked the Smoltz – Weaver comparison in the quote, for nostalgic reasons!
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions
Just so we are clear, here is Mitchell Boggs vs John Smoltz in the same tables
Smoltz on top, Boggs on bottom.
FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 LD% GB%
4.94 7.43 2.03 1.70 18.1 42.8
3.70 8.20 5.54 0.24 20.3 48.3
BA OBP SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP
.440 .490 .758 3.78 6.48 3.24 8.06
.384 .477 .548 7.56 6.48 0.00 7.15
Someone make that into a table. The fact that we are considering Smoltz instead of Boggs, who has pitched circles around him this year shows how desperate they are to NOT use Mitchell Boggs.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions
Boggs walks too many people
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
He walks the same amount of lefties as Smoltz!
And strikes out twice as many.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
that says more about putting Smoltz in the Bullpen
Than keeping along Boggs
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
vs LHB
BABIP
Smoltz: .466
Boggs: .475
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
What about overall?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Overall BABIP
Smoltz:..386
Boggs: .432
It all depends on who you think is going to GET better. Boggs is already better than Smoltz has currently been. But if you think Smoltz will suddenly become Mitchell Boggs – the walks, then maybe you replace Boggs. Otherwise, you are just replacing a guy that is better with a guy that is worse for the gravel in his belly.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
if they would have replaced Welley with Boggs a month or two ago
Boggs would probably be kicking ass right now.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
ya never know
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW
anyone know how to do ‘splits’ on fangraphs?
I’m trying to find the LD rate for Boggs and Smoltz vs LHB.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Does anywhere on the internet give LD rate
based on splits?
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I could probably get it from Pitch f/x data
What do you need?
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to know the LD rate and GB rate of Boggs
and Smoltz vs LHB.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually
Gameday doesn’t report batted ball data, so I can’t help, sorry :(
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
In table form
FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 LD% GB% 4.94 7.43 2.03 1.70 18.1 42.8 3.70 8.20 5.54 0.24 20.3 48.3 BA OBP SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP .440 .490 .758 3.78 6.48 3.24 8.06 .384 .477 .548 7.56 6.48 0.00 7.15
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
>>>"The fact that we are considering Smoltz instead of Boggs, who has pitched circles around him this year shows how desperate they are to NOT use Mitchell Boggs."
If the Cardinals were deadset on using Smoltz as a starter, I’d agree, but their interest in Smoltz came from a desperate need for a right-handed reliever, and Smoltz’s stats, as slim as the sample size is, seems to indicate he would be a vast improvement over anybody the Cardinals obviously have. Them handing Smoltz the fifth starter’s job is more appeasing a future HoF to convince him to sign—while Smoltz is probably willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win, but to get him on that team in the first place, he wants at least an opportunity to start. Considering the six or so games left in the season a fifth starter will pitch, the Cardinals probably felt it was a small risk for them to bring aboard a guy who can seriously boost the bullpen if and when they get to the post-season.
That’s the one advantage Smoltz has over Boggs—Boggs’ required warm-ups limit him to being a starter, which is why LaRussa prefers to keep Hawksworth in the bullpen and give the starting opportunities to Boggs, rather than switch them up. Smoltz doesn’t have that problem and can be shifted there if needed (and Boggs—or a September call-up for Garcia—can make the last few starts).
in the last 30 days
our offense has gone from lower middle of the pack to 12th in the major leagues. wOBA at .342, it’s .323 on the season…. in the last 2 weeks, it’s at .354, and our OBP is up .330 to .369. no doubt that the team has changed drastically.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
*fangraphs
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Good work.
:D
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Hey guys,
I seem to vaguely remember this SP in our minor league system that was tearing it up, major, over the past few weeks. I assumed maybe he’d get a call-up if Boggs wasn’t working out, but obviously since that didn’t happen I must’ve been imagining it.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Garcia
won’t be back until at least August 22nd, which is when he has to come off the DL.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think so,
yes. P.J. Walters, I think his name was. I assume he doesn’t exist, because neither does the change-up.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
If by "tearing it up"
you mean “had 4 good innings against Soriano then got smacked around in later games”
There is no such thing as a "change-up."
There are no personal catchers.
John Smoltz has always been our fifth starter.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Is VEB the
Ministry of Truth, then?
War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength. I love Big Brother.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Sinkers is Victory
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
MOAR
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
SINKERZ!!!!1111!!!!ONEONE!!!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Two-seam fastballs, good sir
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I likez urz bettah
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
poor little red riding peej.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think he meant Adam Ottavino
just so azru will drink himself to death.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been prepping my liver to go at any moment
hate to drag things like that out.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Do you know...
if Hearne is doing something different this year? Last I heard he was about to wash out of A ball, now he’s knocking on the door.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
He played in the Mexican League last year with
a modicum of success, IIRC, but he’s another player I want to watch some Memphis video of. (Someday I won’t have a job to contend with my blogging desires.)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
He can't be a legitimate...
middle of the rotation possiblity, can he? I remember reading Larry’s rundown of him with the interview… Unless he’s got something new, it seems inconceivable he would get ML hitters out on a consistent basis.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
I'm inclined to say that he's not an ML pitcher
based on what I’ve read/heard in the past but stranger things have happened.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I would have thought the same thing
Now seeing Randy Wells pitch really well for the Cubs, it reminds me that there are other pathways to success and commanding multiple pitches within the zone is a legitimate pathway to success. I have not watched any of Hearne and therefore do not know if he fits the criterion, but his lack of walks and relative success point to someone who moves the ball around keeping hitters off balance and inducing weak(er) contact.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
Right but for every Randy Wells
you’ve got a Yusmeiro Petit.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Whoa!
You have a liver? Why in the hell would anybody put a liver in a perfectly good robot?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Alchohol as a coolent
liver is the best filter.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
It's a terrible airport anyway.
Shut up, Fritz™.
by Alxfritz on Aug 20, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 13 recs
man
you haven’t been to bergstrom international. shit is a shoebox
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I like that airport!
good food and there’s always entertainment.
I flew out of New River, NC last month. That airport was literally smaller than the fictional Nantucket airport on Wings.
Shut up, Fritz™.
there is this one place
has some baller biscuits and gravy. pretty lacking in variety, though
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Charles de Gaulle
will always, in my mind, be the worst airport in the history of the world.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Agreed. Any airport that collapses...
and squishes you while you sip your cappucino in the concourse sucks.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Haven't been there
Rode on a bus under it once, but haven’t been inside it.
I hate Atlanta’s airport. Way too busy and crowded. Also Charlotte’s has a pretty terrible layout.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Ugh.
The people were very rude, the airport’s design was absolute shit, and the general experience was very poor (if you didn’t get that general impression).
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
i hate houston (lost luggage many times)
and toronto (boo for terminals you can’t walk between to or get to easily). i never minded CDG when i’ve flown there.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
hobby aint bad
bush sucks, though
way too big
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
bush sucks, though
way too big
It's official. Cardinals third basemen are jinxed.
by YesWeOquendo on Aug 20, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Chalres de Gaul Airport
Can take years off of your life.
From the same people that brought you the Maginot Line…
Play ball!
by IL and StL Fan on Aug 20, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha
I actually get that joke
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
OT: Whoa, Memphis.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Man that's stupid.
Those punishments make no sense unless you have a mind eraser from Men in Black for all of their fans.
Shut up, Fritz™.
Hmm
Picked an interesting day to wear my Memphis t-shirt then, eh?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, glad to see your mom gave that back to you
Thanks for letting me wear it home
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
No problem
Anything to help a brotha out
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Appears so.
BTW, they didn’t really make it to the Final Four or win 38 games. Just so y’know.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I figured this would happen eventually
If only so the program can turn over a new leaf under a new coach.
Calipari is a cheater, always has been a cheater, always will be a cheater.
Kentucky will rue the day they ran Tubby out of town.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Calipari didn't cheat...
the kid supposedly did it on his own.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Isn't it his second final four vacated?
Even if he didn’t cheat, thats still not a very tight ship he runs.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
That's what's under question right now
Did Calipari know about it? Given his history at UMass, I can’t blame people for thinking he’s guilty until proven innocent.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Calipari's assistant arranged for the stand-in.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Uh-huh
Right. Smoke, meet fire.
Nearly everybody cheats in college basketball. It’s not like it’s just him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
John Calipari and Kelvin Sampson would run the most awesome, dirtiest program in the history of NCAAB
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
*could co-run
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget
Eddie Sutton — he’d be the mastermind behind it all.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He's the AD!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
And Jerry Tarkanian, along with John Thompson.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Also don't forget
Jim Harrick and Quin Snyder. Assistant coaches? Gym teacher and head recruiter?
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Jim Harrick Jr. son has to teach a course
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/ugatest1.html
Making my institution look great!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
he pushes the envelope, as does everyone else. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t know that Rose got a stand-in to take the test. It’s like torturing a terrorist in a cave somewhere. The top guy is specifically prevented from knowing for his own good.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
If that's the case
then shame on him. He should be looking into these things since it’s his program, instead he’s sweeping it under the rug. Think about the other members of that Memphis team who get punished by this and had nothing to do with it.
That said, the NBA needs to change it’s entrance requirements — this shit is getting borderline ridiculous: These kids have no business in college.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
college basketball is a total charade
That i still find compelling.
I was just about to list all of the awful things that make me hate college basketball (the cheating, the lying, pretending not to pay kids) but i realized that i really like college basketball.
And this is such a non-scandal.
Caipari may be a cheater
be he gave me an awesome sig
"I've got six players coming in who think they poop ice cream,"
wow awesome typing there dude
Calipari* but*
"I've got six players coming in who think they poop ice cream,"
Awesome quote of the day
"I’m not worried about it because they have never said Coach Cal did anything wrong at all," Beshear said. "I think he’s a very upstanding guy. I think that’s his reputation and I think that reputation will be with him here. I really don’t foresee any problems."
— Kentucky Governer Steve Beshear.
It must take an upstanding guy to get two different Final Four runs redacted at two different schools in the span of 14 years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Kentucky basketball fans are BY FAR...
the most delusional, short-sighted fanbase in all of American sports. It isn’t even close.
Cal is a cheater, and he’s absolutely nothing without Worldwide Wes.
V, b.
by LukeMP1186 on Aug 20, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wow. I have no experience with that
But you think they are more delusional than Notre Dame or Nebraska football fans?
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
ND fans delusional?
You mean my guarantee that we win 10 games and get a BCS bid this year aren’t well founded?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
*guarantees
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
ND only has one preseason top-25 team on its schedule, right?
Definitely not out of the realm of possibility. I personally want ND to epic FAIL this year for two reasons:
1. I hate Charlie Weis and Jimmy Clausen
2. I want Weis fired and Urban Meyer to take over at ND, thus getting him out of the SEC
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I also hate that ND/Syracuse was televised nationally last season
The worst game ever televised? Possibly. At least ND ate it hard.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the schedule is cake and we only have 4 real road games
Not to mention something like 9 of 12 opponents are starting new quarterbacks.
And I want Meyer as much as anybody but I don’t think he jumps ship any time soon. He has a pretty good gig going on there and we don’t exactly have a ton to offer.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
What else would he have to prove?
Assuming he wins the NC at Florida this year (not a huge assumption, IMO), that would be 3 NCs in 4 seasons. Nowhere to go but down at that school. He’s stated in the past that ND is his dream job. He may say otherwise now, but don’t forget Roy “I don’t give a damn about Carolina” Williams in the 2003 (?) Final Four.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Roy never had a chance at that job
until they canned Doherty.
Meyer turned down ND when they hired Weis to take the job at Florida. They would have paid him anything to go coach there and he didn’t do that. If ND fires Weis, they’ll find it awfully hard to pay Meyer what he makes at Florida after paying off Weis’ buyout.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
There a few reasons why he wouldn't, IMO
1. Have you been to South Bend? I could argue that it is worse than Utah.
2. The program is a lot further away from being a top contender year in year out. He is going to have to bust his ass like never before on the recruiting trail, all the while answering to a pretty strict board that doesn’t let him run the program exactly how he wants
3. He has won 2 (or 3) titles at FL. At what point does he want to be Pete Carroll?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Well
Like I say, he’s stated in the past he’d love to coach for ND. He’s a catholic and all, so it makes sense. He’s already got recruiting ties in Florida (maybe the top state in the country as far as talent goes) and ND is a name brand school, so I don’t think he’d have trouble recruiting. I’m sure one of the stipulations he’d have in order to take the job would be total control (or at least almost total control) of the program. ND may not have the best history with regards to that, but look at Alabama. Their board had always meddled until they were at a crossroads in hiring a coach in 2007. They could either keep doing things the way they always had or they could allow Nick Saban to have control of the program and hire him. (clinches teeth) That’s paid great dividends for them already.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you need a little of this in your life
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Boy am I glad I can minimize that photo.
I don’t want to know why you have that photo anywhere you can get to it.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
One problem ND has is that
their academic standards are higher than most schools, and way higher than the NCAA. That eliminates a suprising number of recruits right there.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Let's pretend you're Urban Meyer
Why in the hell would you leave Florida for Notre Dame, when you already turned down Notre Dame once when they would have paid you whatever you wanted?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Because you lose Tim Tebow and Brandon Spikes, along with other key cogs
3 national championships in your first 5 years at a school is ridiculous. And impossible to keep up. Might as well strike while the iron is hot, before you start getting criticized by Gator fans for winning “only” 10 games a season and not winning NCs. I don’t doubt that ND could find the donors to pay Meyer whatever he wants even after paying the Weis buyout.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll just say this...
I hate Alabama football more than anything, and they have very, very delusional, living in the past fanbase. And they aren’t in the same stratosphere as Kentucky basketball fans.
I think Notre Dame fans get a bad reputation from all the moron “fans” all over the country that have no association with the school. I can’t really speak for Nebraska fans, but I can’t imagine them being any worse than Alabama fans, and like I said, they don’t even touch Kentucky.
V, b.
You mean
Notre Dame has fans that didn’t go to school there?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Haha, yes...
And that’s obviously the case with any college fanbase. But it’s much worse with Notre Dame thanks to all the national television coverage.
V, b.
Which are the same people...
that call themselves Yankees, Lakers, and Cowboys fans. And Duke for basketball.
V, b.
Hey...
I’m a Lakers fan and always have been…I resent being grouped in with Duke, the Yankees and the fucking Dallas Cowboys fans.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I live on the KY border.
There are no worse fans in sports, including Cubs fans. UK fans are absolutely horrible fans. Imagine the worst aspect of delusional Cubs fans mixed in with the outward hostility of Phillie fans. Then you have arrived at something that would be approximated as a minor UK fan.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Honest to goodness, you learn something new every day
I had no idea they were that crazy. On the list of things relevant to anything I care about, Kentucky basketball has been way at the bottom of the list for about 10 years now – right below the price of dog food (don’t own a dog) and right above pencil sharpeners. I just honestly never cared one way or the other. Now I have a reason to care: I like delusional fan bases to be disappointed.
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It is Kentucky
What else do they have to live for
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 20, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
No, no, no...
Not being a fan of those teams individually. I’m talking about the people that are fans of all of those teams.
V, b.
So I'm hoping I get a pass too..
..for being Catholic, from Indiana, and going there?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I think the more correct terms for this would be either indulgence or absolution
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
btw, most fun I ever had at a college football game
(non-ND vs USC division) was @ Tennessee in 2004. It helped that we won, but your fans were awesome and helped me and my friends get extremely intoxicated.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Yeah...
That was a bizarre game that cost us a BCS bid. If we take a knee before the half, there’s no bad snap, Ainge doesn’t get pancaked diving on the ball and separate his shoulder, the worst Clausen brother doesn’t come in and give away the game on the pick six in the 2nd half, and I’m happy.
Instead, Fulmer decided to not be conservative for the first time EVER, and that was that. But I’m glad you enjoyed it. The atmosphere was pretty good that day.
V, b.
Same here
I believe the Second Vatican Counsel declared it a mortal sin to be Catholic and not cheer for Notre Dame.
To better enforce this doctrine, my Catholic high school had Notre Dame colors, Notre Dame looking football uniforms, and the Notre Dame fight song.
by Ray Lankford on Aug 20, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
It's sort of like the hagiographic attitude towards JFK that Catholics in my parents' generation were exposed to at school.
Portraits of the guy in every room like he was St. Thomas Aquinas or something.
Actually I’ve never really cared too much about Notre Dame. It’s probably because I’ve never cared about college sports though. Also I’ve fallen into a somewhat snobby attitude about Catholic education which I won’t get into here. That said, I do like how they have relatively high academic standards.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
We had those
and it was named Notre Dame!
(truthfully our football unis were styled after Penn State and baseball were the yankees, though),
Shut up, Fritz™.
i was raised baptist on the east coast
wait, what are you talking about again?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
I love that quote
Doesn’t the governor of Kentucky have anything better to be doing?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Calipari is a high-profile, highly paid state (or commonwealth) employee
He probably got asked the question
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Then he should just say
“I have no comment on this”
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well, he could be covering for Pitino
if he’s not too busy I guess.
Pujols over the last month
is at .399 wOBA. he’s going through a slight slump, but it’s not that bad. his BABIP over last 30 days is at .274… so it’s at least partly due to bad luck.
over the last 2 weeks though, he’s picked it up and his OPS is back over 1.000. Yadi’s been on a tear, with .450 wOBA
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions
Quibble
I agree he’s been struggling, but his BABIP for the season is around .288, so I don’t think it’s entirely due to bad luck.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
do you think it's due to him swinging for the fences more this season?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's due to him having
home runs be a higher percentage of his hits. I don’t think he’s always swinging for the fences though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
makes sense
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Bolt
With the world record in the 200 now.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
oh sure
use the correct term why don’t you
I thought the same thing.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
He made it his own..
back in the Olympics. Michael Johnson was a bad ass to keep it so long.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
He broke his own record
that he set in Beijing.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Right.
I typed that badly. I meant a new world record.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
pinch runner?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
He kind of takes awhile...
to get going. Tyson Gay would be better. They say Bolt could own the 400m if he wanted to train for it.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
If he broke
Michael Johnson’s record in the 400 meters he would be the greatest track athlete of all time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Nobody's ever held
the world records in the 100, 200, and 400 before.
That’s an extremely impressive feat because the 400 is a totally different type of race.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
With the improvement in humans
through chemistry and evolution, the turnover time on these records grows shorter and shorter.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Right,but it
would still be impressive for one runner to hold all of those records, no matter the turn over.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
That's what makes Michael Johnson so amazing...
in 1992 he was faster than guys up to 2008.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Agreed
Don’t forget the improvements in the track surfaces, shoes, and training.
However, that really doesn’t affect my point. Nobody in the history of track and field has held those three records at the same time. Regardless of time, history, training, chemistry, or whatever. It would be a very impressive feat for him to hold all of them at the same time. There have been guys who have held the 100 and 200 WR at the same time, but, as I said above, the 400 is a totally different race.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He should.
Not like he has anything left to prove in the 1 and 2.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
only if he gets to set up blocks
over top of the bases to get in his starting position.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Speaking of track...
What’s up with the “chick” from South Africa? Is she a woman or not? Money quote from some woman I heard on the radio this morning: “Gender is not clear-cut. DNA is not clear-cut. Genitals are not clear-cut.”
Anybody understand this?
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
This is super bizarre.
I’m reminded of the House episode with the supermodel 16 year old who turned out to be a boy. Mental also had an episode about a track runner who had a botched circumcision and was raised as a girl. (That show wasn’t nearly as good as I had hoped it would be. Was expecting a House-type with mental patients but was disappointed.)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
"Botched circumsion"...
Did the surgeon have Tourette’s?
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Happens pretty often, actually. (I think 0.1%)
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I thought it would remind you of the Futurama episode
where Bender dresses up like a female robot, so he can compete in the female robot olympics.
Didn't the dad sleep with her/him as well?
That episode was creepy.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
But it wasn't his fault because he was drunk.
Seriously. Drunk or not, if you have sex with your daughter…there are very few words that express how much that disgusts me.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Especially if she is your son.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Yeah, I don't see how that makes a difference.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
you're very correct
just a twisted story line all together.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Yeah, as I think about it,
for some reason SHE/HE got him drunk so that she could have sex with him. Which just blows my mind. Nevertheless, I hope a dad could still realize how wrong that is whilst inebriated, although perhaps I’m being too harsh.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I thought chromosomes were pretty clear-cut...
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Not necessarily
There’s more to it than just genes. link – NSFW
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I am aware of those phenomena
But I was assuming that the likelihood of this particular person having a rare condition like that was pretty small, and that it’s much more likely that this person is either clearly male or female. If she has ambiguous gender because of those biological issue that is one thing, but barring that I think it shouldn’t be too hard to determine.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Ok...
so people are either XX or XY, but then you can have endocrine or other hormonal issues that aren’t appropriate for your sex… Wow, then there are the Russian chicks injecting god knows what. That’s quite a scene.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
People are not neccesarily either XX or XY...
There are rare cases where there is an extra chromosome, making people XXY or XYY. XXY is what most people would refer to as a hermaphodite. I believe the XYY men are hyper agressive/violent because of the extra testoterone. I remember ready in college that there is a significant percentage of the prison population that is XYY, which kinda makes sense.
I don’t know the details on Caster Semenya, but the rules were made under the assumption that gender is a pretty cut and dry issue, but a very small percentage of the time, that is not the case.
by southsidepat on Aug 20, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There are also XXX as well.
The XYY stuff about aggression has been revealed to not actually be true, though. As it turns out, there usually isn’t too much difference between an XYY male and an XY male other than increased risk of learning disability and possibly a slightly lower average IQ (but that is based on comparison to siblings, and there’s a natural variance among siblings that is basically just as great, so I don’t know what that really tells us).
I am not pulling the specific stuff from memory by the way, I looked it up on wikipedia because I was pretty sure I had read that the aggression stuff wasn’t believed to be true anymore.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
The prison thing is correct.
The percentage of the free population in the U.S. that is XXY is about half that of the U.S. prison population.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Most males have seen the exposed chest of on popular hermaphrodite...
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Aug 20, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
xyy
Had to research that prison thing when i read it. It was just too neat to be true. And the dreaded SSS boogeyman rears his ugly head.
there are kids born with what's called "ambiguous genitalia" (you asked). at birth, doctors
will sometimes say “do you want your baby to be a boy or a girl?” parents then get to decide how the ambiguity gets resolved. surgery ensues.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
More news about it.
Using the old “eye-test,” she does look like a dude, but that’s pretty unfair. It’s an intriguing story. Someone will probably buy the movie rights.*
*sarcasm, I hope
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
anyone have quick access
to the pablo sandoval cake clip?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Assman
From Stark’s Column:
“ON RYAN FRANKLIN: “Ryan Franklin can get you out with four pitches. He might be the most underrated back-end guy in baseball.”"
NO!
He sucks! Bring me the head of Jayson Stark!
And that is very unintentionally funny too.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Damn straight
Franklin takes it in the other end. He sucks.
He sure is back end
the back end of our roster.
So this Avatar movie
is it completely rendered in a computer or is it like Star Wars where they used sets + computers?
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 20, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions
I think it's more of a hybrid
I’ve seen some stuff about live action sets combined with CG characters but I’ve also seen a lot of stuff about completely CG scenes… so clearly there’s a lot of different things going on.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
from what I remember reading
there’s live action, but a lot of it is filmed and motion captured in a way that resembles the polar express etc. It also sounds pretty similar to Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow, one of my favorite failed action movies.
that makes me think of the onion avclub's failure/fiasco/secret success series.
i liked sky captain, but it’s probably straddling the failure/secret success line.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Chris Carpenter leads the majors in WPA
Carp: 4.24, Greinke 3.76, Lincecum 3.75
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 4:33 PM EDT reply actions
I hate it when I get my Smoltz twisted.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Ladies and gentleman, I present the BCB comment of the day:
WAT?
If our lineup simply performs to their career norms, we’ll overtake the Cardinals and win the division by 3 games.
V, b.
Nice. That's going in the archives.
I’ll add that to the myriad of rationales used by this year’s vintage of Cubs’ fans that I’ll helpfully spit out when the next one starts making its rounds. So far (and please please let me know if I’m leaving any out) we have:
- Less losses than the Cards
- Tougher schedule at the moment than the Cards
- Less games played = four games in hand…mark it, dude
- Lineup will simply perform to career norms (got news for ya…yer lookin’ at the career norms right now, pal) = division won by 3 (3? that’s really specific for not being accompanied by an explanation) games
This is going to be a rewarding project when all is said and done. I can feel it.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 20, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I love you Albert
"You don’t have to be a hero every time at the plate," reminded Pujols. "You can win a game with a diving catch or running the bases the right way. There are a lot of ways to win the game, and obviously tonight that was the right way. In late innings you see a lot of pop-ups because guys are trying to hit the ball out of the park. In a tie game like that, a lot of time you see a lot of extra innings. But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in."
I wish I was 11 sometimes so I could hero worship him and it be less creepy.
Shut up, Fritz™.
Somewhere, at this exact moment
Joe Morgan got a tingle in his pants and is wondering why.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Aug 20, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you know that Joe Morgan helped the Pujols family enter this country?
He then got Albert to move from the east coast to near Kansas City and told the Cardinals to draft him.
Albert’s career is entirely due to Joe Morgan.
True story.
Wot?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
OT: New Hipster trend.
Apparently I now have to give up Franklins and start exercising. I guess I can still do that in the basement.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Great.
Just what the Obese States of America needs: being fat is cool. I hope dying at 40 doesn’t also become trendy.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
God, I can barely bring myself to read about half that article.
I love how, if a few losers in New York (OMG New York!) start doing something it’s suddenly a trend. Furthermore, I’m pretty sure the “pot belly” conversation in Pulp Fiction was either about Fabienne being pregnant or wanting to have a baby, and not knowing how to tell her husband. It had nothing to do with hipsters for crying out loud.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Tell that to the hipsters.
Or would it be the douche that wouldn’t figure it out?
(‘-’)
I’m looking at you Jack Shafer.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Let's be reasonable.
Do you think hipsters have the gumption to actually do anything active?
only if they did it ironically.
“ooh, look at me, i’m doing aerobics in my legwarmers.”
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
GOBs bless
Wainright hasn’t gone less than six innings since April 11th (2nd start of the year) and has lowered his ERA in 11 straight starts.
Shut up, Fritz™.
Excellent
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 20, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You think you got it bad?
I asked him to Prom. The problem is I went to a Catholic high school and graduated in the 90’s.
I’m really hoping he lets me have the prom I never had.
?
?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I'm not sure you want the answer to that question.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 20, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
You were truly a pioneer
I might even call you a hero!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I started to watch the first episode of "Shaq Vs." on Hulu...
Godawful. I didn’t even make it to the competition. I was annoyed by Ben Roethlisberger after like five minutes.
V, b.
I hate Roethlisberger,
but only because a) I think he’s a douche, b) I hate all things Pittsburgh. Pretty shallow of me. sigh
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Even shallower:
I hate him because of the Fathead’s commercial he did a few years ago. Ben (in a weird voice): “Hello, people in TV land, get a Fathead” Ugghh — just thinking about it makes me feel awkward. I’ve hated him ever since.
by Ray Lankford on Aug 21, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
OT: Sports Pickle
Tony LaRussa brings in Capricorn to pitch to a Leo
This is salaciously interesting too.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That Brad Lidge
bit was awesome.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Is SB refreshing only every few minutes?
The black side panel explodes … it’s getting annoying. Though not obnoxious. I prefer it when the conversations refresh as the comments come in.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
It's been killing me
during game threads. Seems like just the last couple days. Has there been a traffic spike? Seems like a lot more action during game threads.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Game threads have been nuts.
I participate more often than I used to.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Yeah, I've noticed a spike in comments
and a degradation of the smoothness in the site. Ah well. Game threads have been b-a-n-a-n-a-s.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
really fucking nuts
there’s so much going on, the game has become secondary
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
You've worded pefectly
the atmosphere of the game threads of late.
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Tonights lineup:
From FSN Midwest Twitter:
Schumaker 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ankiel RF
DeRosa 3B
Molina C
Ryan SS
Pineiro P
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
Luddy gets the day off
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
he can style his mohawk?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That bases loaded K was one of the worst...
displays I’ve seen in a while.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Especially
when he’s walked the previous two batters.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I have often wondered if, when a batter is not hitting well, if they shouldn't shorten
their swing and just make sure to get contact, rather than flailing at the ball?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 20, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
or the day contemplating if he should just cut it off?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
probably for the best
he looked incredibly lost at the plate last night.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
yeah
he hasn’t had much time off it seems since the injury
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 20, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
This series out west is absolutely killing
my sleep. My lucidity has completely went out the window the last couple of mornings. /random musing
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I'm on the East Coast this week
it’s been BRUTAL.
Luckily we don;t have to be at our conference until 9, unlike being at work at 7 back in the real world.
Shut up, Fritz™.
I'm on the east coast EVERY week
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 21, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
"Every day like this?"
“Seven dayy-ayyys!”
by Ray Lankford on Aug 21, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Three more of these to go...
five run rule in effect.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
I thought it was 4
games in SD?
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Oh, GOB be praised.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Thank goodness I've been on vacation
and have wireless internet. Otherwise I’d be a walking zombie.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
It's been really annoying
I keep deciding that it’s better to just go to bed and get sleep than to stay up for two more hours and wake up a zombie.
The only positive is that with this team, I no longer feel like once I go to bed they’ll end up losing every time.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
They even come from behind sometimes!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
th_t's wh_t sh_ s__d
would you like to buy a vowel?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Sheff's pouting...
er, “clearing his thoughts” again:
http://www.metsblog.com/2009/08/20/news-mets-reject-sheffields-reqiest-for-extension/
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
lol.
Mo is a kid in a candy store.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I guess if you are going to go all in
go ALL the fucking way in. (she said that? OMG!)
by Ray Lankford on Aug 21, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cards are turning into a place for old closers to reside....
can we get Lee Smith and Tom Henke a call? Give them some kind of job….just get them here too
No shit?
Is September going to turn into Playoff Auditions Month?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 20, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanx I like nothing better than a good rumor.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 20, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
that rumor
is pretty hilarious… it doesn’t even seem like it’s MLBTR worthy at this point.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
Some of you may remember me bitching about my door-slamming roommate...
Well that fuckwad just killed my pregame sleep. I expect all of you to testify on my behalf at my murder trial.
V, b.
is he a cubs fan?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I got your back.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
And sisterhood!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 21, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
you have problem?
you call me. i call someone. problem go away.
cool?
not saying,
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i like the way you think
we could be good friends
by BirdsonFire on Aug 20, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
good stuff chuck, but i have a couple questions that i hope you or someone can answer
can someone explain this last part to me?
thanks to the continued overestimation of the usefulness of ERA. The sooner people realize that it’s an obsolete pitching statistic, the better off baseball will be.
why is ERA obsolete? i get why wins are not a good way to measure a pitchers success, but i don’t understand why ERA is not. is it because there are too many things going on that the pitcher cannnot control? or is there more to it than that? what stats have, or should have replaced ERA now to properly measure how good a pitcher is?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
good and bad fielding behind the pitcher is one factor.
good and bad luck is another — if pineiro does a great job getting groundballs down and induces 20 GB in a complete game, he may benefit from a large number of balls getting hit right at boog. whereas, if he induces the same number of GB in a second game, but an unusually large number go through a gap, his ERA in this second game will suffer.
pitchers can control their GB rates, FB rates, K rates, BB rates, LD rates, etc. they can MAYBE control which side of the field balls in play end up on (by pitching in or pitching away). but they have no ability to make a groundball go right towards a fielder.
there are other factors — the hometown factor re: scoring errors — but i’d say luck and fielding are the two reasons to ignore ERA as a measure of pitcher skill.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
And to a lesser extent...
the notion of a run being “earned” or “unearned” based on the scorekeeper assigning errors. My favorite is when a guy boots the third out, the pitcher then gives up 12 runs, and his ERA is 0.00.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
yep
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 21, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Park factors make a huge difference too
Sorry I’m late to the party
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
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