Too early to celebrate, but...
by chuckb on Aug 2, 2009 11:01 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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| 5 | 4 | 84 | 86 | 24 | 61 | 7 | 3.86 |
| 4 | 3 | 66 | 64 | 20 | 51 | 6 | 3.75 |
| 4 | 3 | 62 | 59 | 15 | 48 | 6 | 3.48 |
| 6 | 2 | 74 | 58 | 13 | 55 | 3 | 2.75 |
| 119 | 111 | 29 | 89 | 7 | 3.10 |
Ok, now try this and see if it helps:
| W | L | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 84 | 86 | 24 | 61 | 7 | 3.86 |
| 4 | 3 | 66 | 64 | 20 | 51 | 6 | 3.75 |
| 4 | 3 | 62 | 59 | 15 | 48 | 6 | 3.48 |
| 6 | 2 | 74 | 58 | 13 | 55 | 3 | 2.75 |
| 119 | 111 | 29 | 89 | 7 | 3.10 |
Those are the preseason Chone, Marcel, ZIPS, PECOTA, and VEB community projections for one Mr. Christopher Carpenter. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. And here’s where we sit on this, the 2nd day of August, 2009.
| W | L | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3 | 115.2 | 92 | 18 | 83 | 5 | 2.10 |
Wow! I’m not sure what more needs to be said. It’s too soon to pop the champagne cork but he’s been utterly fantastic this season. (You know he’s a terrible hitter, right? I mean Viva El Stinko! For his career he’s a .100/.129/.111 hitter w/ a MINUS 36 OPS plus!) On the mound he’s been absolutely terrific and I’ll be the first to admit being way off in my expectations of him. I thought the VEB community was far too optimistic in expecting 119 innings out of him and he’ll reach that this week (God-willing!). Right now he leads the league in ERA and is tied for the lead in HRs against. Only our very own Joel Pineiro has given up fewer walks than Carp (all these stats are among qualified pitchers, of course.) and he’s third in the league in FIP.
He’s fifth in the NL in K/BB and fourth in HR/9. He’s first in the NL in WPA and WPA/LI. Carpenter has, through about 2/3 of the season, already been worth 3.3 WAR – about $15 M. I, for one, never thought that Carp’s value would ever approach what we were paying him but he’s already been worth $1 M more than we’re set to pay him this season ($14 M) and he’s on a pace to be worth another 2.01 WAR the rest of the season ($9.0 M). Sheesh, I hope I’m not jinxing him but few of us expected to get this much production out of him and I doubt anyone expected him to be this good when he did pitch. His health and production have helped make our rotation among the most formidable in the NL and probably the majors as well. There’s no doubt that if our rotation had pitched the way it did last year -- which wasn’t horrible, btw – we wouldn’t be within shouting distance of the division lead. Now, most consider us the favorite.
Carpenter’s probably a shoo-in for the Comeback Player of the Year award and, if he holds up, should get some Cy Young consideration. Right now I would, objectively, have him behind Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren, and in the same company as Pineiro and Javier Vazquez but, if he keeps this up, he’s probably looking at a top-3 finish. Whoda thunk it? Not me, I’ll be the first to admit. Looking at those projections at the top of the screen, I thought that if we got 85 innings out of Carpenter we’d have to consider ourselves fortunate. In fact, if he’d have never pitched meaningful innings again I wouldn’t have been all that surprised.
As I said, assuming I haven’t jinxed him, his numbers should be pretty stout at the end of the year. Right now he’s averaging 6.8 innings per start (and that’s counting a 3-inning stint on April 14 where he left the game w/ an injury). In his other 16 starts, he’s averaging 7.04 innings per start and he’s set to make 11 more starts the rest of the way. That includes pitching on the season’s final day – a start he’s unlikely to make if we’ve already clinched a playoff spot – so I’m going to assume that he’ll make 10 more starts this season (ever the optimist!). That’s roughly 70 more innings. At his current pace, his numbers will look like this at the end of the season.
| W | L | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 5 | 186 | 148 | 29 | 133 | 8 | 2.10 |
Not too shabby, huh? In a league w/ Lincecum and Haren, those probably aren’t Cy Young numbers but that’s probably just b/c of the 6 weeks or so he spent on the DL in April and May. If he had pitched then, his numbers would be as good as anyone’s. Hell, they’re damned near as good as anyone’s as they are. Hopefully, those 6 weeks away from pitching will help keep his arm strong in October.
Later we send our 3rd best starter (so far this season) to the mound for the sweep against the dreaded Astros. We may need a win to stay a half game ahead of the small bears.
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Todays lineup via BJRains tweet
Schumaker 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ankiel RF
DeRosa 3B
Molina C
Lugo SS
Wainwright P
....my quick smells like french toast...
The PECOTA 90th-percentile projection
is even more telling:
W: 8; L: 4; IP: 115.3; H: 106; BB: 27; K: 87; HR: 8; ERA: 3.03
In other words, he has already reached his 90th-percentile projection, and beyond.
It’s perhaps notable that PECOTA assigns him a “similarity score,” used among other things to show how close the comparisons used by PECOTA really are, of just 13. They point out that a similarity score below 20 is “historically unusual,” which might imply a low-confidence prediction, although their “beta” statistic claims that Carp is no harder to predict than average. Note that another guy with a similarity score of 13 is one … Albert Pujols.
Every start by Carp is a blessing
He really is an amazing pitching specimen. Who else has had these kind of layoffs and severity of injuries and come back as if he never missed a day? Having said that, you knew that if he was healthy he would put up good numbers — the projections probably assume the kind of deterioration in ability of mere mortals after big surgeries. He just seems to defy that convention. Actually he’s done that twice now, so it’s no fluke.
As great as Albert is, Carp is doing some things I think that haven’t been done before. The 6 week layoff may be good for us in the long run. Let’s hope the GOB are with Carp this year.
Just win
What I REALLY like about those stats
Is that Carpenter has pitched a lot more innings and STILL ALLOWED FEWER WALKS than predicted!
Puzzle
Carpenter has been fantastic, and thanks for the numbers. But there is a strange thing developing with the lineup since Holliday joined the club. In the nine games since he showed up all non pitchers not named Holliday, Lugo or DeRosa have a collective BA of .235, an OPS of .294, an SLG of .290. This is a small sample sure, and Baseball rules would have mandated that somebody take those plate appearances, but these numbers do include Albert and a somewhat resurgent Ludwick and Ankiel. I’m not complaining about the value of the people the front office has added, far from it – without them, these last nine games would have been a disaster. It’s certainly a case for asking is your glass half empty or half full. What is going on here…should we be worried about this?
pujols will break out
he seems to go through one or two of these 2 week mini slumps a year whether it be in spring training, the regular season, or the postseason
then he breaks out and hits 7 homeruns in a week or something
by cardsforever on Aug 2, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
you must mean OBP, right? Either that or you mistyped the OPS value
it is sad though; A few weeks ago we were talking with some degree of possibility about a triple crown for #5. Now he’s fallen well behind in batting, the rest of the league is catching up in homers, and Fielder has now caught him in RBIs (although its pretty sick he can have almost no offensive production with the bat for weeks at time and still be tops on multiple leader boards). Not that these categories encompass his entire value to the team’s offense, it was just kind of neat to think he might pull off a feat last accomplished in what, 1967?
it may sound funny
but in feeling the same thing deweydell pointed out, I’m hoping today for a game where Holliday, DeRo and Lugo all go 0 for 4… and we still WIN. Maybe not even from Albert; I would love to see some sticking today from Colby and Ank.
It’s nice tho that even without Luddy, this is a pretty good line-up.
Let the Blake Hawksworth craze begin!!
From STLCardinals.com
Watch live on MLB.TV as Blake Hawksworth, who is settling into his role in the ’pen, and the Cards host the Astros in the finale of their their weekend set Sunday at 1:15 CT.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
by stltrav09 on Aug 2, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I really hope Bud doesn't find his inner Chuck today...
Let’s go Waino. We need this sweep.
Any idiot would know that.
I taught my son his lower body action
He throws harder than anyone in his rec league and gave up one hit this year in 20 or so innings.
170 is his official weight.
I’d be stunned if he weighed more than 175. He’s two inches taller than my husband who is 5’9" and a built 195 pounds. There is no freaking way Tim weighs 180-190.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
He's not as small as some people say
I’ve stood right next to him and shaken his hand.
Also, stories about him just taking a few minutes to warm up before a game are true.
He is truly a pitching freak.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I did that.....
when I played. I’d also only take a couple of warm-up tosses between innings. Like, 3.
There are 3 things the average man thinks he can do better than everybody else: build a fire, run a motel, and manage a baseball team.
-- Rocky Bridges
it is very possible
he wouldn’t want the weight on his chest
legs would be better for him
Lincecum?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Mat Holliday.
When we traded for the dude, I knew it was going to be fun to watch this offense play games, and I knew that we added a couple of wins. I knew all that.
I just didn’t expect him to be so damn fun to watch.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I've always had a Matt Holliday (baseball) crush.
That said, I didn’t want the trade to happen. But when it did, I was pretty stoked to watch him.
Of course, no one could predict this level of production. The man is a beast.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
He really is the perfect #4 behind Pujols.....
Because he doesn’t have to rely on the longball to be effective. I love that he is just a tough out, and takes pitches, and has a good eye. To be the most effective lineup we could be, we didn’t need a masher behind Albert, we needed a “good bat.” That is what Holliday is.
There are 3 things the average man thinks he can do better than everybody else: build a fire, run a motel, and manage a baseball team.
-- Rocky Bridges
I'm off to see this mythical Holliday character.
I don’t believe in him yet, as I haven’t seen him in person.
Also, Pujols loves my wife being at games for some reason, so if he jacks a dong, you can thank us later.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
Um
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Aug 2, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
most hilarious post ever
i hope that mrs pujols got it done for him so that he doesnt have to jack a dong on live television
by krippledmaster on Aug 2, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
OK so being ever slow
i finally got a twitter account. Anyone got a list of good people to follow, cards related or otherwise worthwhile?
Pretty much all the Dispatch writers are on it
@MatthewLeach
@Jluhnow
@cdnhawk (Blake Hawksworth)
@joestrauss
@joesheehan
@dgoold
@miklasz
@injuryexpert (will carroll)
@kingclip (kevin goldstein)
@keithlaw
@azruavatar and @erik_manning are on it too
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball.
by Cardinals645 on Aug 2, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Tweet from Luhnow
Allen Craig player of month for July. Was there any doubt?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 2, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Does this mean that the lack of love for Allen Craig stems from somewhere other than Player Development?
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball.
I think Luhnow is the most popular Cardinal guy on VEB
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 2, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
the most interesting Cardinal guy
in the world
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and every single one of those are repeated right here on VEB a mere seconds after anything of any importance is "tweeted"
which is why i think twitter is un-necessary in my life.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
All the ones directly related to the Cardinals
Plus, there’s some value in seeing it in their exact words, instead of playing telephone.
But I see your point.
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball.
it's awesome if
you want to conglomerate all the breaking news services to one application. That’s what I use it for. Twitter sends the updates to my phone and I’m constantly aware of what’s happening in the larger world around me.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
I hate people
That talk about nothing on their Twitter page
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 2, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I just tweeted something very important
about this dog with huge nipples that I saw the other day. Breaking news.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
maybe that's one of the reasons I don't like it.
there’s a lot (and I mean A LOT) of just absolute crap out there i don’t care about.
I did sign up for twitter back in spring training because everyone was talking about how goold or some other P-D writer was tweeting good stuff from ST all the time. And it was good stuff, but i soon realized that each time it showed up there, within seconds it was here, so i just felt like i was wasting my own time.
But, i guess someone has to follow that stuff and post it here on VEB, right? otherwise I’d never find out about it. heh….
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I also like
@MattBaker31 – Beat Writer for Springfield
@cardinals_qf – Fangraphs feeds of Cardinal games
@Ackerman1120 – Tom Ackerman
@101espn – ESPN Radio
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 2, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
fyi it's @matthewhleach
Matthewleach gets you a business man.
I like to follow mattbaker31 the springfield newspaper’s minor league beat guy. He’s good for prospects.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 2, 2009 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah he really has come into his own this season
I like his stuff. AA to me is where guys turn into prospects, imo. The largest jump in difficulty is from High A to AA.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 2, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Is anyone else just a little less excited about Cardinal baseball without Brendan Ryan
Get well soon Boog.
It does seem a little empty out there doesn't it?
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 2, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel better about Lugo
Than T Greene or K Greene
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 2, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I heartily agree
but without the Boog….it jes ain’t the same.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 2, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
He plays the game with more energy than all 3 combined
although T. Greene is also pretty fun to watch field when he’s on.
I just keep finding myself saying about Lugo.
“He’s so damn fast!”
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
yeah
him and Boog’s speed rating at fangraphs are over 6…. which is pretty fast
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 2, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Boog :(
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Up here in the NE
Article in Boston that the Red Sox may want to dump Dice-K over cultural differences around training. 3 years/$28 million remaining. Two good years under his belt and a shoulder problem now. Be interested to know what they would want —
Just win
yeah, we've already got Boggs if we want that.
although even with a flimsy pen Boggs hasn’t been too damaging because every other starter, particularly the Cy3 can go deep into games.
taping the game
and going to see the Portland Beavers play the Sacramento River Cats this afternoon. Hopefully Wallace won’t hit like 3 HR and make me sad.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
Ludwick seems to be the big loser in the Holiday trade so far
He got bumped from the cleanup spot even though he was on fire at the time.
He hasn’t hit for shit since he got bumped.
And now he’s gonna sit for the 2nd time in 4 games.
what a load of crap.
Milt Thompson FTW!
go cards!
wainwright kicks ass
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 2, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions
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