JOHN SMOLTZ??
by aaron_notmiles on Aug 18, 2009 11:48 AM EDT
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According to Sportscenter just now, Mo has expressed serious interest in obtaining one 42 year old RHP, John Andrew Smoltz. With Boston, the 1996 Cy Young Award winner went 2 and 5 with a lofty 8.32 ERA and has only thrown 40 innings in 8 starts this season to date. Righties are hitting a measley .232/.259/.390 against with lefties absolutely crushing him at a .440/.490/.758 line with 6 of his 8 HRs given up to lefties. In 24 high leverage at bats, Smoltz has given up 12 hits including a double and 3 HRs. In his last full season (2007) Smoltzy went 14 and 8 with 205.2 IP and a 1.182 WHIP. He had 197 punch-outs and an ERA+ of 137. With his recent implosion in Boston and subsequent DFAing, I put it to you, VEBers, is Smoltz worth picking up? How could/should/will we use Smoltz? Keep in mind he was a top notch closer in the 02, 03, and 04 seasons notching 55, 45, and 44 saves respectively.
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If we are picking him up
It’s going to be as our 5th starter, since he’s said repeatedly that he wants to start. If we could convince him to be a reliever, I would be ecstatic, but as a 5th starter, my reaction is “meh, better than any other option”/
Man, with this outfield, need to get rid of that Rasmus, no Ankiel, wait no, Rasmus wait...uhhhh
Just read an article
That said that Smoltz was open to being a reliever or a starter…
….my bad
Man, with this outfield, need to get rid of that Rasmus, no Ankiel, wait no, Rasmus wait...uhhhh
No Whey...
…he will be a reliever, perhaps a set-up for Franklin at best, but he won’t start, not this year.
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
If you didn't read it late last night:
RT @JoeStrauss : Cardinals working on arrangement where Smoltz would come aboard as fifth starter. Smoltz looking beyond this season. #stlcards
....my quick smells like french toast...
I personally
think that he would be an interesting Duncan reclamation project as a starter. Obviously Smoltz has been a strikeout pitcher for all of his career; his name is synonymous with using a 4-seamer and a slider to strike out batters, but Duncan is known for taking aging pitchers of his ilk and re-inventing them as he has done with Piniero and Lohse (until he started losing command this season). He is an obvious upgrade to our rotation, but there is the question of health.
definitely worth a shot
Smoltz would only cost the club the prorated major league minimum for the remainder of the season. If we sign him today, he would cost about $103, 703.70. That’s if dividing $400,000 (minimum salary) by 162 (full season) and multiplying that figure by 40 (games remaining) is the right way to figure this. (I taught history, not math!)
What is there to lose? I suppose if he stinks worse than Welley or Boggs, then he could hurt us in the rotation. But seems to me that he can bring a lot to the club in intangibles.
My first memory of Cardinals baseball is seeing Darrell Porter jump into Bruce Sutter's arms on October 20, 1982!
I LOVE the intangibles
he might not be the Larry Walker of the bullpen, but maybe a cousin to that phenomenon; his effect on Motte, especially, might be good.
I'm for it
I, however, think, that he’d be more valuable as a reliever than a starter. I just think that the fifth spot in the rotation doesn’t matter much, as I don’t see the Cubs catching up to the Cards. I suppose, GOB willing, that we could shift him to the bullpen in the even we make the playoffs.
Life's a river, kid, you gotta go where it takes you.
-Wayne Malloy
by KerouacCardinal on Aug 18, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions
FWIW
Duncan and Smoltz would be looking at this to punch their tickets to Cooperstown. Dunc especially, since coaches don’t currently get in. High motivation to make this one good.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Likely # 5 starter
Which would be OK. I hope that Smoltz wouldn’t get get hit too hard against lefties, but I’m sure he and Duncan could work on that – after all, DD is one of the best at his job.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Smoltz as a Card, or the # 5 for that matter. I’d take him over Welly any day.
Forget Christmas in July... every day's a Holliday in St. Louis.
It makes a lot of sense for both sides...
- Smoltz could come in and take the 5th starts for the rest of the season and then move to the bullpen in the playoffs. He’s really the only guy out there who is effective at both.
- At this point I think he could benefit from Duncan’s philosophy and gameplanning since he’s not throwing it by people as much anymore.
- He’s only got 1 ring, and I think the Cards would give him the best shot at a second one.
- He fits the veteran that LaRussa covets on his teams
- If he’s effective in the rotation for the rest of this season, I really don’t see the harm in bringing him back next year if he’s willing to sign a below market contract.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 18, 2009 4:45 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
this move just seems to make all the sense in the world:
—at just over $100,000 he is cheap, relatively speaking
—we have an opening at the 5th spot in the rotation. he can sort out his issues against lefties from there and if he can’t swing it we simply put him in the pen as a ROOGY/setup man.
—he will not disrupt team chemistry (which i know some think is overrated)
—larussa and duncan would love to have him around
—if cardinal fans win him over, he may want to return next year…then we don’t have to throw 8-10 mill. piniero’s way…then we can maybe resign derosa…it would be one big, happy family
I dabbled in pacifism once....not in 'Nam of course
sorry, pretty much same thing....
fourstick said. was in a hurry and couldn’t read all the comments….and the redundancies went on, and on, and on, and on, and on…..
I dabbled in pacifism once....not in 'Nam of course
No worries
I think that’s the way a lot of people feel here. I was just trying to list them all in one post — those certainly aren’t all my ideas.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
DeRo, Wainer, Lohse
the effect on all three would be good — various reasons: (friend, idol, threat of competition); and key personnel (Carp, Pu, Yadi) would be neutral at worst.
Waivers?
Doesn’t he have to clear waivers before anybody can sign him?
He already cleared waivers and was let go by Boston.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 18, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Release waivers are different.
He can’t sign with anyone until tomorrow.
For Pistol:
I’m curious…is the unnamed source someone you know, or did you read this somewhere and it’s attributed to an unnamed source?
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
voldemort?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Where's HCL?
The guy who really needs to come back to earth is Julio Lugo. He flat-out sucks, or at least he did until he sold his soul at the foot of the Gateway Arch. by Not Bruce Froemming BCB
some pitcher in Arizona made a bet on this too?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
And much better than Welley
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
No fucking way
unless Boggs goes out and gives up 18 runs tonight and strikes out no one, he is still better than Smoltz has been.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 18, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow
I think there is a little gray area between “yes” and “no fucking way.”
Smoltz clearly has something left in the tank due to all the numbers that have been tossed around (and thus don’t need to be rehashed). Conversely, Boggs has been fortunate in regards to HR/FB, esp. considering he’s given up more than 50% fly balls in his time in The Show. It is also true that he’s unquestionably outpitched Smoltz to this point, in the sense that the results have been better and their respective FIPs justify those results.
However, the important questions are these: is Boggs likely to continue outpitching Smoltz? Is Smoltz giving up more home runs because of a decline in skill? Is he struggling v. LHH b/c his splitter has disappeared? Does he only have enough juice to go through the lineup one time effectively? These are very real questions and I’m not sure if the answers are particularly clear right now. Just looking at their respective xFIPs doesn’t do it for me.
"I know how the numbers work. I know how OBP works. I know all the numbers that will never be printed in the newspaper. They're slowly working their way on to major league scoreboards. But, how the game really works, it's not what you see out there, and it’s not about short term emotions in games. It's numbers behind numbers… it's how the game works."--Brian Bannister
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 18, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Better than Welly, could be better than Boggs
Welly’s the obvious. Boggsy hasn’t been up long enough for me to choose, but I’d say that Boggs could be replaced at the 5 spot by Smoltz.
Forget Christmas in July... every day's a Holliday in St. Louis.
I Dunno About that....
:=8/
Pick him up, yes, as a reliever, not a starter!
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
Does this have an origin?
Like a published article or a personal friend or something?
"I know how the numbers work. I know how OBP works. I know all the numbers that will never be printed in the newspaper. They're slowly working their way on to major league scoreboards. But, how the game really works, it's not what you see out there, and it’s not about short term emotions in games. It's numbers behind numbers… it's how the game works."--Brian Bannister
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 18, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The post dispatch article
stated that he wouldn’t clear waivers until Wednesday.
link
i believe he becomes a FA tonight at midnight...
… but no team will claim him and have to pay his full salary. so the Cards probably have a deal agreed, but it can’t be made official until tonight.
Makes sense.
Frankly I think the Cards lose nothing by signing Smoltz. I prefer to see him as a 7th or 8th inning guy, but running him out to start can’t be a lot worse than Mitch Boggs can it? Definitely could use him as a ROOGY if need be too.
I agree
I think we sign him knowing that is where he’ll be eventually, assuming we make the playoffs. In his limited innings this year, despite getting hit hard, he’s been outstanding the first time. That is some very real support that it will be a help.
I don’t mind trying him as the 5th guy initially too much either way. If that’s a big deal to him because he can show something for next year, and that is what makes it happen, then it’s not too big a deal. Heck maybe he figures something out and can go through a lineup a 2nd and 3rd time. If not, just pay attention to what he is bringing in innings 1 and 2.
You could argue it deprives Boggs of his best opportunity, but I have a strong suspicion he’s ultimately a bullpen guy for us anyway.
by Merry CRasmus on Aug 18, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
at what point are/were the cards allowed to negotiate w/ smoltz?
anybody know?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Anonymous, back alley at midnite negotiations.
That’s when all the best stuff happens.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 18, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm trying to imagine DeRosa and Wainwright in some smoky lounge...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i'm not sure...
… it seems like it would against MLB rules to negotiate with a player before he’d cleared waivers. it could affect a team’s decision to claim him or not, which could affect how much Boston ends up paying him. but maybe that’s not the case, or maybe Smoltz is “unofficially” talking to DeRosa and Wainwright and they are carrying messages to Mo.
I think when you're HOF'er (or damn near one)
a team is not allowed to claim you off of waivers without calling your agent first to see if it’s OK.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 18, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
could be john smoltz or nobody, guys.
almost missed this blurb:
As for another free-agent relief option, Duncan expressed little enthusiasm for Justin Speier, who was recently released by the Angels.
at the very bottom of an article at mothership.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
fiddlesticks
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
he's a fly ball pitcher
Duncan’s “little enthusiasm” is absurd. Speier’s a pretty good option who is basically a ROOGY. Right now, he’s better than either McClellan or Motte. The fact that he’s a ROOGY shouldn’t deter us considering the fact that we get so many innings out of our starters and that we have 2 lefty options in the pen. Duncan doesn’t like him b/c he’s a fly ball pitcher — and that alone shouldn’t be disqualifying. That’s patently absurd!
I want to see Smoltz signed....
Just for the pure entertainment value.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 18, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions
as long as it doesn't cost us games
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I am prepared to take this chance.
(based on my knowledge of who Smoltz will be replacing)
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 18, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Brad Thompson?
Or will Welle be put on the shelf for good/given a very long rehab assignment?
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Absolutely
If our alternative is welle/Boggs, then I’m all for it. To yadi’s point, if we go up 8-10 games on the Cubs then we’ve got very little to lose. Finally, he knows he won’t be in playoff rotation, so if he rounds into form in September, then we have a useful ROOGY for the playoffs.
And let’s not forget, this is John Smoltz. I’m all for having a hall of famer on the roster for the playoffs and WS. How can that be bad.
Just win
Welle is already a guaranteed loss
so even if losing I don’t consider this move costing us games.
On with the (good) youth movement!
Interesting post at BBS
graphing Smoltz’s 2009 season, with acknowledgement of the small sample problem.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/18/994008/john-smoltz-whats-left-in-the-tank
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Musial
I have a little bit of a problem with what he said there. Not so much in any of the support he gives, but more so in the conclusion. It amounts to saying, his stuff is not near as good as 2007 (primarily) and 2008 so he isn’t worth picking up. The problem is he was damn good in 2007. So good he was picking up some Cy Young votes. There is a wide chasm between 2007 and completely useless. That he is not near the same is understood by all, but that doesn’t really answer the question.
I will say that his graph showing how dramatically the fastball has lost its effectiveness is alarming. That’s clearly the main reason he is getting destroyed. It a small sample, but there is almost certainly something there to be concerned about. However, you can hang some hope on how well he did the first time through a lineup (again with a small sample). It’s probably still a bit of an open question, all things considered.
I’m not saying he is sure to help, but he very well COULD help. The Cards have some time, and a little bit of a lead, to find out. They also have the needs to fill. So why not give it a shot?
by Merry CRasmus on Aug 18, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I have the same problem that you did
I asked Harry about it in the comments section, and he revealed that his pitches remained above average with the exception of the fastball, which was slightly below.
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
So _if_ this Smoltz thing is true,
does that mean that, between him and Lugo, Boston will be paying somewhere around 1/8 of our payroll from here on out? If so, I wish they would do that more often.
by BTown Birds fan on Aug 18, 2009 7:21 PM EDT reply actions
Boston won't be paying the Cards any of Smoltz's salary
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 18, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
They won't? I thought they would have to pay all of his contract but pro-rated league minimum.
I’m really confused about how all this works with DFAs, releases, waivers, etc.
by BTown Birds fan on Aug 18, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
cards will pay prorated league minimum, boston pays the rest
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
It may be semantics to you...
but Lugo’s full contract is on “our” payroll and Boston is paying it (this is a result of the fact that we traded for Lugo; he was not a FA that we signed).
In contrast, Boston released Smoltz. They owe him, not us, the guaranteed portion of his contract with them. Therefore, Smoltz’ contract is not on “our” payroll; Boston doesn’t pay the Cards anything (unlike Lugo).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 18, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
But Smoltz is on our payroll
at league minimum, which he is willing to take because the Red Sox will be paying him $5 M.
If not for their generous contribution, Smoltz would go to the highest bidder.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 18, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, that's definitely just semantics to me,
at least for the point I was making, which I maybe could have made more clearly. Of the money the people on our roster are getting paid (which as, HL points out, obviously has an impact on their willingness/ability to play for us), somewhere around 1/8 of it is coming out of the pockets of the Red Sox. The fact that some of it goes directly to Smoltz instead of passing through an STL bank account seems pretty trivial (except for stuff like payroll rankings and related PR…).
by BTown Birds fan on Aug 18, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Let the Greg Maddux return rumors start now that favre has returned.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
Maddux doesn't have that kind of rep
Clemens on the other hand…….
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Aug 18, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Michael Jordan?? I heard he was a ballplayer
also I heard he’s got good D.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
I saw him play baseball in AA
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Aug 18, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
well I have ten of his baseball cards.
and now they’re worthless. I think.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
I have a few, too
from Upper Deck. Whadda you have? Wanna trade?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Aug 18, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
The Intro...
to Space Jam does not count.
by mynameistyler on Aug 19, 2009 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
No really!
Birmingham Barons @ Huntsville Stars
Circa 1995. He was there, man! And he sucked!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 19, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Please, No Mooore!
:=8/
The refs won’t give him 12 steps to the basket in the Majors…
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
Duncan...
will fix what ever ails Smoltz.
Sign him now and put him in the pen.
Please.
duncan can teach an armless man how to pitch.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
he said armless...
not dickless.
/too harsh?
by Willie McGee's Twin on Aug 23, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Very much so
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Aug 23, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
done deal?
well, according to Jayson Stark Smoltz is strongly leaning towards Cards as a setup role. Gotta say I like it. Low risk/ high reward.
mlb network just said that it's a done deal
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 19, 2009 1:15 AM EDT reply actions
Going to be the 5th starter according to StL PD
Whatever happens, it’s going to be awesome to see Smoltz as a Cardinal even if he hasn’t got much left. He’s been one of my favorite players for a long time, and I really hope he surprises me.
Well this is a deal that makes an absolute shit-ton of sense for everybody
nice to see us doing something cheap, high-upside, and logical.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
seems like it's probably gonna get done?
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/08/19/john-smoltz-set-to-join-cardinals/
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
watch him get into a personality conflict with TLR
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
He's ours "unless someone else claims him"
So says PD, and it makes another team claiming him sound very unlikely. 100K for Smoltz for the rest of the year. This…seems like a steal for us.
I know whom to call for a hole in my roof or a whole new roof.
this is 6, man. this is *6*
"That would be tremendous news if it happens," said Chris Carpenter, thrilled enough by the possibility that he said he would entertain relinquishing his No. 29 to Smoltz.
!!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
what you got?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
he just wants to luggage you
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 19, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
If Carp gives up 29 I will luggage him
I have a Carp jersey and a Carp jersey t-shirt. He CANNOT give up that number!
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 19, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Gonna happen just after noon
According to SI.com
I'm dumb, she's a lesbian. I thought I had found the one.
We were good as married in my mind, but married in my mind's no good.
Pink triangle on her sleeve let me know the truth.
Carp is willing to give up his number for him.......
I would bet Smoltz will be too classy to want that.
Smotlz should NOT accept Carp's jersey number
I normally don’t care about these things, but in this case Smoltz would be sending the wrong message by taking the jersey number of Carpenter.
Carp has just as many Cy-Young’s and World Series titles as Smoltz does (each has one), and is currently pitching lights-out, while Smoltz comes aboard as a waver wire fodder.
Smotlz needs to just “fit-in” on this team and focus on his on field perfomance.
How embarrassing would it be if he took Carp’s jersey then got shelled in a few starts and was re-released by the Cardinals?
This is a fresh start for Smoltz— new team & new jersey number.
y'know, I was kind of on the fence about it
But if Chris Carpenter wants to give Chris Carpenter’s number to a guy he has a lot of respect for, that’s ultimately on Chris Carpenter. As much as we care about the honor of the team, it’s the guys on the field writing the record books.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 19, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
It's nice that Carp is willing to do it...
but that doesn’t mean that Smoltz should take it… the whole point is that Carp should get the respect from Smoltz
Smotlz has never been better in his career that Carp is right now.
by salukihoops on Aug 19, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+100
I'm dumb, she's a lesbian. I thought I had found the one.
We were good as married in my mind, but married in my mind's no good.
Pink triangle on her sleeve let me know the truth.
it is what it is
If someone else is making Carp do it, that’s one thing. If it’s Carp’s call, it doesn’t matter what we think. For all we know, he picked 29 as a tribute to Smoltz.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 19, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Smotlz will wear #30
According to the team, Smoltz will join the Cardinals on Thursday in San Diego and will wear uniform No. 30.
Rest of the regular season as the #5
which means that in any given series, our opponents might be slotted to face, in this order, Carpenter-Smoltz-Wainwright. I know I should be more critical of Smoltz’s potential as a 42 year old, recently injured starter, but I am SO friggin’ stoked about a Carpenter-Smoltz-Wainwright trio, I can’t help myself.
If he is able to regain form as a starter, that’s a pretty nice 1-2-3 option to throw out there (of course, a 1-2-3 with Joel instead of Smoltz is not all that bad either)
And if he doesn’t pan out as a starter that we want to carry into the postseason, maybe that’s the point that he’ll accept the setup roll.
Either way, I just want to thank the Boston Red Sox for not only taking C Dunc off our hands, but for providing two good players for the rest of the season (and one for next), virtually free of charge. Quickly becoming my second favorite team….
That combo looks nice
But keep in mind Smoltz has gotten pummeled vs. LHH and the second time through the order. His best fit is in the bullpen, maybe throwing the 7th and/or 8th every few days.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 19, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
he's definitely been pummeled,
but BABIP seems to suggest that a lot of that is just bad luck, right?
BABIP
his line drive rate is elevated over his historical rate, so the higher BABIP is not all bad luck, but at a .390 BABIP hopefully at least some of it is.
Goold points out the relative lack of success he is having with his fastball this year (and cross references Fangraphs as back-up), which seems to line up with what people have observed as well.
His LD rate is below his career rate
Where are you getting your data from.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions
LD Rate
You’re right, his LD rate is lower than his career figures, I must have been looking at his last year rate, which was ridiculously low. I was looking at Fangraphs by the way.
Seems clear the problem isn’t the LD rate, but the fact that way too many of those fly balls are being sent into the stands.
There is no way that that split is meaningful in anyway
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 20, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Pitcher K/pa stats stabilize at 150 PAs. he has 101 PA's against LHB this year.
some of those splits are getting close to meaningful.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
after looking around some, i read that the league average for starters is 16% K/PA
he has 12 K v. 101 LHB
he has 21 K v. 85 RHB.
so if we assume league average performance for enough PAs to get him up to 150, we would expect him to get 8 more K’s (.16*(150-101)) in 49 PA’s v. LHB, and about 10 more K’s in 65 PA’s (.16*(150-85)) against RHB.
(12+8)/150 → 13% K/PA rate against RHB
(21+10)/150 → 20% K/PA rate against LHB
his total splits may not be significant. but there is a difference in his success with RHB and LHB at least in terms of strikeouts.
I saw another indicator that league average K/PA is closer to 18%, which would mean we’d expect a 22% K rate against RHB, and 14% K rate against LHB. Either way, the platoon split has some meaning.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
crap - put the wrong labels on the middle numbers.
(12+8)/150 → 13% K/PA rate against LHB
(21+10)/150 → 20% K/PA rate against RHB
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
LD Rate
You’re right, his LD rate is lower than his career figures, I must have been looking at his last year rate, which was ridiculously low. I was looking at Fangraphs by the way.
Seems clear the problem isn’t the LD rate, but the fact that way too many of those fly balls are being sent into the stands.
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