Can Pujols Catch Ramirez?
by JWO on Aug 13, 2009 11:40 AM EDT
35 comments
I've been watching the standings the last few weeks, and begun to wonder if Albert really does have a shot at the triple crown. Based on numbers as of 13 August, he seems to have a good / great chance at winning the HR and RBI races. Reynolds is an unknown commodity who I believe will fade. Fielder is a great hitter, but playing for a team that is rapidly slipping from the standings and will likely have diminishing production.
Its the batting title that's elusive, and that's due to one man hitting for the Marlins. Albert appears to have broken out of his mini-slump and is again dominating. But Hanley Ramirez's numbers are SICK (not "ridiculous" - that title belongs to El Hombre). Here's the skinny on their past ten games:
Pujols: 39 AB, 15 Hits, .385 AVG (4 BBs, 5 SOs)
Ramirez: 46 AB, 19 Hits, .413 AVG (1 BB, 7 SOs)
I'm ignoring the other hitting statistics - for the purposes of this discussion, they're irrelevant. For my VEB bretheren, what do you think are the chances Albert overtakes Hanley? Give me a % guesstimate.
I'll start off with 35%. I don't think Pujols cools off. The problem is, Ramirez will stay north of .340 for the rest of the season. That will (sadly) be just enough to win the batting title.
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it would be exceptionally difficult to make up that difference if ramirez keeps
hitting .350. If you run the numbers, Albert would have to hit .400 to .420 for the rest of the season, depending on how much he gets walked. If Ramirez slacks off and ends up with a .340 average (he would only have to hit .320 the rest of the way, pretty close to his career average), albert would have to hit .380 the rest of the way. if hanley only hits .300 the rest of the season, he’d still end up hitting .330 or better.
you would have to hope for either a truly spectacular 2 month hitting streak from the mang (though I never bet against pujols) or a collapse from ramirez (or an injury that takes him out and makes him ineligible for the title). i would not say the chances of that are close to 35%.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 13, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Isn't albert like a 15% to hit .380+ any given month?
so he’d need two of those, plus Ramirez would have to underperform his career line. 35% seems reasonable to me on the face of it, but looking at the numbers it seems like a much, much longer shot.
15=/=25
by hazel on Aug 13, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, i didn't run it all the way out to the probabilities, which wouldn't be too hard to do.
i would guess, by eyeballing it, that we’re talking a 5-10% chance here.
most likely scenario, some combination of the above – albert goes on a .360ish tear and hanley slumps late, dropping his final BA to .325.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 13, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone Got..
…Jeff Gillooly’s number??
;=8)
I hate Jason Marquis!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Aug 14, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Injuries = not funny
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 15, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so .380 the rest of the way
would be about 61 hits, assuming 3.5 Ab/G (what he’s had so far this year). .327 the rest of the way would be 52 hits. So he’ll have to get 9 lucky/clutch hits over the next ~2 months to hit .380.
If Hanley hits at his career average (.316) and gets 180 AB, and albert hits .371 (7 lucky/clutch hits over what he’s done so far) and gets 160 AB, they’ll tie at .342. Well, technically, albert will win, .34155 to .34154.
OTOH, ramirez would have to go 0 for 30 to have his batting average fall to .327 at this point.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 14, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't bet on it, BUT
Albert’s chances are tantalizingly close to realistic. Ramirez’s BA is currently .351, and that is pretty imposing. Fangraphs has his BABIP listed north of .390 for the year, and I would normally say something about that being unsustainable. However, we’re so late in the season that I’m not really sure that applies. Hanley has maintained a very high BA the entire season and doesn’t show any sign of stopping. Meanwhile, Albert has thus far been having one of his merely “ho-hum” seasons where his BA hovers around .330 or so. He is as .327 currently, so that’s a .027 gap which is pretty substantial.
A lot has been made of Albert’s uncommonly low BABIP this year, which I find very interesting. The prevalent theory seems to be that he is elevating the ball more, becoming more of a homerun hitter in the process. This leads to smaller BABIP. Coincidentally, the same thing probably happened in 2006 when he went on a similar ridiculous homer pace. He ended up cooling off but still finished the season with a career high in homeruns (49) and a then career low in BABIP (.294). His current BABIP is .293. It’s entirely possible that I have misunderstood something about the relationship between HR, flyballs, BABIP, and BA but that’s what it looks like to me.
So, Albert, I propose the following; once you feel secure that you will finish the year tops in HR, start concentrating on linedrives again and bet that average up to the .340 range. It’ll be ridiculously hard to do but it’s possible. Hanley’s career high BA in the majors (Small Sample Size Alert!) is .332 which is what you hit in your sleep. I would put the chances at around 25% but it might happen.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Aug 13, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's hitting a lot of LD's that leave the park
that’s the only reason his BABIP is low.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 14, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More likely to win Triple Crown:
Albert or 2010 Kentucky Derby Winner?
by vexedtechie on Aug 13, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Napkin Numbers
Forgive the formatting.
First, Pujols’s current stats:
G AB H
114 401 131
Extrapolation:
AB/G GToGo ABToGo Exp#AB
3.5 48 168.8 569.8
Calculation:
Target TotalHits ReqHits ReqBA
0.324 185 54 0.318
0.326 186 55 0.324 <— Where Pujols is now
0.328 187 56 0.331
0.330 188 57 0.338 <— If AP hits his career AVG the rest of the season
0.332 189 58 0.345
0.334 190 59 0.351
0.336 191 60 0.358
0.338 193 62 0.365
0.340 194 63 0.372
0.342 195 64 0.378
0.344 196 65 0.385
0.346 197 66 0.392
0.348 198 67 0.399 <— A Todd Helton-esque pace to end the season
0.350 199 68 0.405 <— Where Ramirez is now
0.352 201 70 0.412
0.354 202 71 0.419
0.356 203 72 0.426
0.358 204 73 0.432
0.360 205 74 0.439
With 48 games to go, I think it’s more about how much Ramirez struggles than Pujols returns to form.
Fan of: Cards, Blues, Yellow Jackets, Rams, Wolverines, and Blazers.
by ColinMacLeod on Aug 13, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would say 5%
35% is a gross over-estimate.
Pujols won’t win the triple crown. He’ll just have to be content with another boring MVP….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 14, 2009 6:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
6ly
How boring!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Aug 14, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for "6ly"
don’t know if that’s been used here before, but it’s the first i’ve seen it. i heart this meme.
by nycbirdo on Aug 14, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally stole it from someone...
Don’t remember who. It has probably been used a handful of times, so I can’t take credit for it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Aug 14, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
6ly came into common use earlier this week.
I had to add a vague edit to the glossary.
Because we don’t want to make it too easy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 14, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
6ly's been used since freakin' mid-May... lol
by vexedtechie on Aug 14, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think mattyfrommo might've come up with it. Not sure, though.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 14, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mattyfrommo
Mid-June.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Aug 14, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was him.
I thought it was hilarious.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Aug 14, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree With that Assessment
Pujols is going to win the MVP going away, but he won’t get the triple crown. You’ve got to go back a long way to find a NL hitter who has combined high batting averages with power as well as Pujols has over the last 9 seasons.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Aug 14, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's Only A Difference of 55 Years, But...
Here are Musial’s numbers from 1946-1954.
Here are Albert’s numbers since 2001.
Of course, Pujols still has more than 40 games left to round out his ninth full season in the bigs, but I found it interesting that Pujols since 2001 has an OPS+ of 172 and Musial had an OPS+ of 171 in the nine seasons immediately following World War II.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Aug 14, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who else do you think gets votes in the NL for MVP?
utley, maybe ibanez. hanley will get a few votes. unless you want to put a pitcher into the MVP mix, just not a lot of guys having ridiculous years in the NL. adrian gonzalez just shut down after his monster start to the year.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 14, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a little afraid they'll decide this is one of those years that a pitcher deserves it
and vote for Lincecum. I don’t really think that will happen, mind you. And it’s not like they’re checking WAR on fangraphs every day. And Albert might already be a lock for it. But sometimes I think too much about this stuff and worry over nothing.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Aug 14, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha - sadly, it's just possible you might be right...
if albert doesn’t win the MVP this year, it is an even bigger disgrace than 2006. I could sort of believe you about the pitcher thing, but seriously, Albert’s gonna probably reach 50 HR when all’s said and done, with a collossal average and like 130, 140, maybe even more RBI. They give Ryan Howard press every year for those sort of counting stats, when he’s hitting .230 and getting on base about .340. Albert’ll do it this year, for a possible NL central winner, with a .330-odd average and a .440-odd OBP. It should be unanimous, as far as I’m concerned…. He is the best player in MLB this year and it isn’t even particularly close.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 15, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless the marlins get the WC and it goes to hanley.
A shortstop with a .980 OPS playing (slightly) above average defense is pretty competitive and wouldn’t be a huge slight.
Same applies to Utley.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Aug 15, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say Larry Jones is close to Pujols
in terms of pure hitting (he’s maybe a bit off on power) when he’s fit. Trouble is, that’s maybe 200 ABs per year…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 15, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha i had to look up larry jones
For a second there I thought you meant larry walker but chipper is an ok choice
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Aug 15, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another item I forgot to mention
I didn’t talk about strength of schedule. Consider who the Cardinals and Marlins have to play in their final batch of games:
Cardinals
Padres – 7 (.422)
Dodgers – 3 (.600)
Astros – 6 (.487)
Nationals – 3 (.348)
Brewers – 9 (.491)
Pirates – 3 (.404)
Braves – 3 (.526)
Marlins – 3 (.530)
Cubs – 3 (.513)
Rockies – 3 (.557)
Reds – 3 (.439)
AVERAGE – .479 record
Marlins
Rockies – 3 (.557)
Astros – 3 (.487)
Braves – 10 (.526)
Mets -9 (.465)
Padres – 3 (.422)
Nationals – 6 (.348)
Cardinals – 3 (.552)
Reds – 4 (.439)
Phillies – 6 (.571)
AVERAGE – .484 record
Actually, I’m stunned the numbers are this even. I thought the Cards might have more of an advantage here. And neither Pujols nor Ramirez has to face the Giants and their pitching. So I guess this is a push.
by JWO on Aug 14, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The pitching staff and park is what really matters:
By my count, Hanley has 16 games against good pitching staffs and/or in pitcher’s parks:
- 10 games against Atlanta
- 3 games at St. Louis
- 3 games at home vs. Colorado
Then he has 25 games against lousy pitching staffs and/or in hitter’s parks:
- 6 games against Washington
- 9 games against New York
- 3 games at Houston
- 3 games at home vs. San Diego
- 4 games at Cincinnati
In addition, he has 7 games against the Phillies
Albert seems to have an even easier road ahead. The only good pitching staffs we’ll see coming up are:
- 3 games at Los Angeles
- 3 games at home vs. Atlanta
Crappy staffs include:
- 7 games against San Diego
- 21 games against the putrid foursome of Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston, and Cincy. Cincy hasn’t been bad but the games are at their park
- 6 at home against Washington and Florida – two terrible staffs
Other games:
- 3 at Colorado
- 3 at home against Chicago
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
by guayzimi on Aug 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
will pujols at least win the decade triple crown?
Ichiro has a career BA of .332.7714
pujols’ is .3338019
but he’s also hitting .325 and ichiro is hittting .359
If pujols kept that avg. and Ichiro kept his and stayed at the same pace will pujols win the triple crown for the entire decade?
by CodyG on Aug 15, 2009 4:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He will not win the decade triple crown for all of MLB. A-rod has somewhere close to 80 more home runs over the decade.
He will win the decade triple crown for the NL however.
by cbsnyder on Aug 15, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are suggesting that albert pujols is not capable of hitting 90+ HR
over the next month and a half? bite your tongue, sir.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Aug 17, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh snap you're right
well than there’s nothing to worry about..can he at least lead the league in active career ba for the rest of the season then?
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Aug 15, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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