Cards vs. Cubs Strength of Schedule for Remainder of Season

by KennyWang on Aug 1, 2009 6:46 PM EDT

I wanted to look at the strength of schedule of the two teams most likely to win the NL Central this year. BPro has the Cards chances of winning the central at 57% and the Cubs at 37%. My methodology was to look at the opponents' pythag record so far and then weight the remaining games against those opponents according to their pythag record. I attempted to, but ultimately did not, include any difference because of trades, but most of the teams' transactions will only provide a marginal improvement (.5-1 WAR) for the rest of the season. There were just too many variables like injuries and minor league call-ups that would have tainted any sort of improvement from trades. Plus, most teams are thoroughly intact before the trade deadline. Thus, current pythag record does a good job of assessing strength of schedule.

My formula was to take the pythag record of teams, multiply that by 2 to get a pythag coefficient, then use the coefficient to weight the remaining games the teams have. That gave a "weighted games remaining" where games are discounted or favored more strongly based on the strength of their opponents. Example: A .500 pythag team like the White Sox will have a 1:1 game weighting. A good team like the Dodgers will have a game value >1. A team like the Padres will have a game value <1.

Here's the table:

Cards Opponents	Games	Pythag Record Dif. as of 8/1	Pythag %	Weighted Remaining Games
NYM	2	-4	0.48	1.92
PIT	6	-6	0.47	5.64
LAD	3	21	0.6	3.6
SD	7	-26	0.38	5.32
HOU	5	-11	0.45	4.5
WSH	3	-21	0.4	2.4
MIL	6	-3	0.49	5.88
ATL	3	7	0.53	3.18
FLA	3	-3	0.49	2.94
CHC	3	7	0.53	3.18
COL	3	11	0.55	3.3
CIN	6	-12	0.42	5.04
	Total			Weighted total
	50			46.9	Weighted Total/Actual=.938
Cubs Opponents
FLA	2	-3	0.49	1.96
CIN	6	-12	0.42	5.04
COL	3	11	0.55	3.3
PHI	3	15	0.57	3.42
PIT	9	-6	0.47	8.46
SD	3	-26	0.38	2.28
LAD	4	21	0.6	4.8
WSH	3	-21	0.4	2.4
NYM	6	-4	0.48	5.76
HOU	3	-11	0.45	2.7
CHS	1	0	0.5	1
MIL	7	-3	0.49	6.72
STL	3	6	0.53	3.18
SFG	3	7	0.53	3.18
ARI	3	-7	0.47	2.82
	Total			Weighted Total
	59			57.02	Weighted Total/Actual=0.966

There is a lot of overlap in the schedules, but the weighted total/actual games are the following: Cubs 0.966; Cards 0.938. This means that according to pythag record of opponents, the Cardinals have an easier schedule from here on out than the Cubs. If one considers that the Cards have significantly fewer games, and can maximize their top 4 starting pitchers and be better rested, the difference might be even greater. Things look good for the Cardinals. I welcome for your feedback/suggestions.

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Comments

We play MIL nine more times

Our last series of the regular season is against them, at home, in early October.

Testicle-exploding shit storm, circa 7/12/08 - We will never forget!

by dan on Aug 1, 2009 7:03 PM EDT reply actions

True.

I’ll update tomorrow with correct #s, shouldn’t be enough to skew the outcome, though.

"Never judge a taco by its price" - Dr. Gonzo

by KennyWang on Aug 1, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Another good post

seems we’ve hit another glut of nice fanposts after a couple of weeks’ worth of mostly crappy ones….

And re: new players, the only team in the NL other than us who’ve made a REALLY significant addition, IMO, is the Phillies, and we manage to miss them whilst the Cubs have three games. If they run up against Lee instead of, say, Moyer or something, that could be significant…

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Aug 2, 2009 5:50 AM EDT reply actions

I would argue that

the Giants upgraded their team about as well as Philly did overall. Garko adds a good right handed bat to their offense and first base, and Freddy Sanchez might be a 2 WAR (or MORE) upgrade at second base.

Neither of those guys are game changers like Cliff Lee, but I’d still take Lincecum and Cain over Lee and Hamels any day of the week.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 2, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't forget Pedro!!!

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe

by gocards62 on Aug 3, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Greek to me

but with the new additions plugging holes we had (Holliday, DeRo) and when Albert and Rasmus start hitting again… and if the pitching holds steady, I like our chances to get into the playoffs in any case, regardless of schedule.
The best part of the schedule we do have seems to be that we have played a few more games already than competitors… eg at this writing the Cubs have two fewer losses than do the Birds, yet still 1/2 game out: translated, they have played a whopping FIVE less games than have the Cards — a nice advantage in that it means we won’t need to trot out our fifth starter (our biggest remaining question mark) as often.
The Cubs might pull through and win the division in any case, but I am also sanguine about capturing the wild card (if need be.) I reason that the Giants’ offense is too woeful and the Rockies are too flaky (emotional.)
Success still depends on the basic rotation (Carp, Waino, Lohse, Pinata) holding firm, but if they don’t we have no shot in any case, Holliday or no Holliday.
Lastly, the one thing that does give me a bit of a quease is those nine games with Milwaukee. With the Brew Crew having pitching problems lately, it’s too ‘cofortable’ to cast that forward as a 6-3 or even 7-2 finish with them. They are a weird team and have hurt us before.

by the Tewk on Aug 2, 2009 6:54 AM EDT reply actions

In addition to the actual opponents

You hit on perhaps the biggest key for the division/wild card race, namely, that because of the off days, the Cardinals will get to pitch Carpenter/Wainwright in a greater percentage of their remaining games. With those two on their games, the name of the opponent matters less (but the name of the opposing starter matters a little more).

by olddomination on Aug 2, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions

Good post

In case people aren’t sure how to interpret the .938 vs. .966, if you cut them in half, that’s the (weighted) average winning percentage of the teams each team faces the remainder of the season:

Cards: .469
Cubs: .483

This ‘strength of schedule’ (SOS) difference is part of why the Cardinals keep coming out better in the BP postseason odds simulations,

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

despite the Cards and Cubs having similar pythag win percentages. Let’s take advantage of that SOS difference.

www.mpgillusion.com

by ncgostl on Aug 2, 2009 9:54 AM EDT reply actions

Scary thought

So, I’m a day late to this fanpost, but if we take the teams games left and subtract the games left multiplied by the opponent’s winning percent you have:

Cards 54 games left
54 – (54*0.469) = 28

Cubs 58 games left
58 – (58*0.483) = 31

This would give the cubs 87 wins vs the cards 86 wins. I didn’t adjust for both clubs losing 8/2 and the cubs wining on 8/3. Not sure how much that would affect the end result.

This whole race could come down to who gets the better pitching match-ups from the opposing team. I sure hope the extra days off make a difference. I’m not confident it will.

by hex706f726368 on Aug 3, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions

i fat fingered something on the calculator

Should be 28.674 for the cards and 29.986 for the cubs for ending win totals of 86.674 vs 85.986. So we actually seem to hold an advantage, but my intended point still holds. The opposing pitchers each team gets in their series could be the difference.

by hex706f726368 on Aug 3, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

The thing about relating this to pythag

is that you’re relating it to how they should be finishing related to the number of runs they’ve scored so far. It’s a much better analysis than straight winning percentage for sure, but teams that have just made moves or have a bunch of guys underachieving right now could pose a formidable threat, like Cincinnati could be a very good team down the stretch since they’ve been banged up most of the season and just made a move for a very capable third basemen, a position that they were lacking.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 2, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

FWIW

this works in the opposite direction as well. As much as the Reds scare me with the 6 games we get against them, I’m not as concerned about the Pirates as I was back in April since they’ve gutted their roster. Sadly, we’re the Cardinals, and are doomed to split those 6 games with the Pirates based on organizational charity — it’s the only reason I can figure out as to why we seem to struggle beating them year in and year out.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 2, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe...

the road trip the Cubs start in St. Louis on Sept. 18 will determine if the last week of the season will really matter. The Cubs are playing 10 games on the road against the Cards (3), Brewers (3), and San Francisco (4). 4 against San Fran really reduces the odds of them missing Lincecum, and hopefully they get both Lincecum and Cain that series.

by Jumsy on Aug 2, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions