Trever Miller, LOOGY Extraordinaire

by Ghostrider520 on Aug 1, 2009 11:43 AM EDT Comment 4 comments

We all remember the off-season saga that was the signing, un-signing, and then signing of Trever Miller. To think, the Cardinals almost pulled the plug on the deal because of Miller's shoulder issue. I can't even imagine where we would be in the standings without him consistently retiring left-handed batters (and occasionally some right-handed ones).

So, how good has Trever been this year?

Overall line: 42 appearances, 27.1 IP, 18 hits, 6 ER, 9 BB, 32 Ks, 6 holds, 0.99 WHIP, 1.98 ERA

Left-handed batters are 7 for 64 against Miller. 7 for 64! That translates to a .109 average. Of those 64 plate appearances, 29 have ended via the strikeout (with only 4 walks, to boot). Even when you include appearances against right-handed batters, his K/BB ratio of 3.56 is outstanding. His LOB% is pretty remarkable too, 87.7%.

Miller is poised to post his best season yet. His lowest ERA was 3.02 in 2006 (with a WHIP of 1.09) as a member of the Houston Astros. He appeared in 70 games that year, although I don't see him getting close to that this year.

In my opinion, there are a handful of reasons behind his success this year.

Limited exposure. Tony is not running him out there every night in an attempt to turn his arm into a noodle. He's on pace to appear in 67 games, but those appearances have typically been limited to just 1 batter.
Less fastballs, more sliders. In 2007 and 2008 (ERA of 4.86 and 4.15, respectively) Miller was throwing his fastball close to 60% of the time. In 2009, Miller has gone with the heater just shy of 50% of the time. As for the slider, Miller threw it 13% of the time in 2007 and 17% of the time in 2008. In 2009, Miller has thrown the 76 MPH (on average) slider 40% of the time.
A more effective slider. While his slider velocity has not changed over the past few seasons, it is breaking at a rate of -5.9 inches (horizontal movement). He has also significantly decreased the vertical movement of the pitch, meaning there is less of a chance that he will throw a "humpy" slider a la Brad Lidge in 2005. We all remember what happens to hanging sliders right? They get deposited on the train tracks. The pitch is moving vertically about 1 inch, as opposed to 4 inches in 2007 and 3 inches in 2009.

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He's been good.

At the start of the season I felt Reyes was going to be the guy who eats up lefties (pun intended).

by thp0344 on Aug 1, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

I agree about the slider

it seems to have a lot of “sweep” against lefties, and I think it’s hugely exacerbated by his almost sidearm action. I haven’t watched much of him in the past, but I wonder if his arm has dropped even lower than usual this year. That slider seems to sweep across the bows of lefties from the first base side and they just kind of wave the bat ineffectually at it.

The exposure is obviously key as well. It’s nice this year (as opposed to 08 and 07) to have TWO LHRP who can actually dispose of lefties at an excellent rate. Sets up lots of great match-up and switch opportunities for LaRussa, and I think it helps the righties too. Really, I feel Motte should be used sparingly (to avoid over-exposure) and I’m pretty happy for TLR to use a Motte/LOOGY combo in critical innings where there’s a lefty hitter, leaving KMac for the full inning responsibilities (though I’m happy with Motte vs three righties).

However, I don’t feel we should necessarily hope for Miller back next year – he’s a type A (though might end up a type B) and those draft picks are really valuable. Either way, he returns a supplemental (probably somewhere in the 40s or 50s) and, although I can’t see us getting a first rounder if he’s a type A (no-one with an unprotected pick will waste it on a LOOGY, and anyone who does likely has already signed another type A, the Yankees for instance, and so their first round pick likely goes to someone else) we might get a 2nd rounder too. Obviously he might also accept arby (especially if he’s a Type A, as that likely drives down his FA value) which would be good too as he’s only been paid 500k this year.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Aug 2, 2009 5:46 AM EDT reply actions

I agree about the money/contract situation.

But, his $500,000 contract is base. He’ll be earning a handful of performance bonuses though. So, his ultimate payout will be somewhere around $1 million to $1.5 million. I’m sure the base plus bonus amounts will raise his “new” asking base salary to $1 million or more for 2010. That all depends on him staying healthy and pitching as well as he has all year though.

Contract bonuses: $0.2M each for 40, 45, 50, 55 games; $0.225M each for 60, 65 games; $0.23M for 70 games

by Ghostrider520 on Aug 2, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions