.600 ball in August?

by gocards62 on Aug 1, 2009 10:50 AM EDT Comment 27 comments

While this figure is above our current winning percentage (.571), it's not that hard to imagine given the new 4-man rotation and our August schedule.

Each of our starters (Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Kyle Lohse) gets six starts. Our #5 guys (BoggsThompsonWaltersMeyer) gets TWO. I've attached a table to show when and where. Going on past performance and matching up teams RS and RA, here's my prediction. The SP may or may not get the win; I'm predicting team W/L.

				Opponent			Head to Head
Date	Opp	Opp Record	Card Starter	RS	RA	RD	STL W	STL L	Prediction
1-Aug	HOU	51-52	Carp	431	480	-49	4	3	W
2-Aug	HOU	51-52	WW							L
4-Aug	atNYM	49-52	JP	435	462	-27	1	3	W
5-Aug	atNYM	49-52	KL							L
7-Aug	atPIT	44-58	Carp	420	446	-26	5	4		L
8-Aug	atPIT	44-58	WW						W
9-Aug	atPIT	44-58	JP							L
10-Aug	Cin	45-57	KL	408	491	-83	4	3	W
11-Aug	Cin	45-57	#5							L
12-Aug	Cin	45-57	Carp						W
14-Aug	SD	42-62	WW	391	524	-133	NR		W
15-Aug	SD	42-62	JP						W
16-Aug	SD	42-62	KL							L
17-Aug	atLAD	64-39	Carp	504	403	101	3	1		L
18-Aug	atLAD	64-39	WW							L
19-Aug	atLAD	64-39	JP						W
20-Aug	atSD	42-62	KL	391	524	-133	NR			L
21-Aug	atSD	42-62	#5						W
22-Aug	atSD	42-62	Carp						W
23-Aug	atSD	42-62	WW						W
25-Aug	HOU	51-52	JP	431	480	-49	4	3		L
26-Aug	HOU	51-52	KL						W
27-Aug	HOU	51-52	Carp						W
28-Aug	WAS	32-71	WW	454	563	-109	3	1	W
29-Aug	WAS	32-71	JP						W
30-Aug	WAS	32-71	KL						W

		STL Run Differential		470	435	35
		Head to head					24	18	16	10
		Pct						0.571		0.615

			Starts		Team W	Team L
		Carp	6		4	2
		Wainwright	6		4	2
		Pineiro	6		4	2
		Lohse	6		3	3
		#5	2		1	1

			26		16	10
						0.615

Poll

Do you think the Cardinals will play .600 (or better) in August?

Yes

181 votes

No

31 votes

212 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

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Comments

We play one team with a winning pythag?

Awesome.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Aug 1, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and we've already beaten them 3 of 4

The poster formerly known as JoeyBombs.

by RasRoY on Aug 1, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure the #5 will pitch in 4 games in August

In your diagram, Wainwright is pitching on short rest on the 18th and Pineiro is pitching on short rest on the 29th.

by thp0344 on Aug 1, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

come on

who voted no??? What the heck we should only be optimistic!

by KyleW on Aug 1, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

August Rotation

When I figured it out here back on the 19th, I had the following occurring in August:

Carp 6 starts
Waino 6 starts
Pineiro 5 starts
Lohse 5 starts
5th pitcher 4 starts

by stlfan on Aug 1, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

August needs to look like this:

Based on who is pitching for us based on my numbers above and the other team’s record/pythag, I think that we should go somewhere between 17-9 and 20-6, assuming the team stays healthy and that Boog is not injured badly (back soon.)

Carp faces HOU (W), @PIT (W), CIN (W), @LAD (W/L?), @SD (W), HOU (W) – 5-1 or 6-0
Waino faces HOU (W), @PIT (W), SD (W), @LAD (W/L?), HOU (W), WAS (W) – 5-1 or 6-0
Pineiro faces @NYM (W), @PIT (W), SD (W), @SD (W), HOU (W/L?) – 4-1 or 5-0
Lohse faces @NYM (L), CIN (W), SD (W), @SD (W), WAS (W) – 4-1

faces CIN (L), @LAD (L), @SD (W), WAS (W) – 2-2

That is what needs to happen because in September/October we face:
Milwaukee 9 times (5-4 minimum with 6 of 9 at home)
Cincinnati 3 times (2-1 minimum on road)
Pittsburgh 3 times (2-1 minimum on road)
Atlanta 3 times (2-1 minimum at home)
Florida 3 times (2-1 minimum at home)
Chicago 3 times (1-2 minimum on road)
Houston 3 times (0-3 minimum on road)
Colorado 3 times (0-3 minimum on road)

That’s 30 games at 14-16, possibly…if we stay healthy.) I think August needs to be ridiculous, especially with how the team is playing right now (having gone 16-10 in July and winning 6 of the last 9.)

by stlfan on Aug 1, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It'll be a sad sad day....

if the cardinals lose 2 of 3 to the Remains of the Pittsburgh Pirates, with Carp, Waino, and Lohse pitching….i think we should be able to assume 2 wins there.

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 1, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dammit...

i meant Carp, Waino, and Pineiro

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 1, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We have struggled w/the Bucs

despite the statistical edge. Maybe not this month w/their depleted lineup.

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe

by gocards62 on Aug 1, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah...totally not the same team they struggled against earlier

LaRoche
Sanchez
Wilson
Morgan
Hinske
McClouth
Burnett
Grabow
Snell
Gorzelanny

are all gone…

Meanwhile the cardinals have added Holliday, DeRosa, and Lugo and Joel, Carp and Waino have been dominant for a couple months now.

Also in the 9 games that we’ve played against them this season:

Wellemeyer has 3 starts
Boggs has 2 starts
Lohse has 1 start –
Carp has 1 start – 1 hit the bucs for 7 innings in season debut
Pineiro has 1 start – before he turned into christy mathewson
Wainwright has 1 start – The Motte blown save on opening day

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 1, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we need August desperately

September is a meat-grinder, and it finishes away, except the closer with the Brewers. If anyone in the division is spoiling us, it’s gonna be the Brew Crew, who meet our Birds 3×.

If we don’t win in August, the chances of October ball are significantly diminished. Count on it.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 1, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if we go 16-10 like I predict

Cubs have to go 19-10 to keep up

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe

by gocards62 on Aug 1, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the cubs have a big chunk

Where they’re playing almost exclusively inside the division. The lone exception is the Giants, who might still be in the Wild Card hunt.

If they make it out of those weeks, they’ll still be dangerous. If they don’t, our way ahead is a bit easier.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 1, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope so

I don’t think I could take another year of crybaby Cub fans in the playoffs

take it easy
why care about a bloggers grammar
no matter how much you hate me you still read and comment me

by angryandy on Aug 2, 2009 6:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope so, too

But the bullpen scares me, so does Albert’s elbow. Holiday isn’t going to hit .571 forever

And while I want to think Joel Pineiro is real, I also really, really, really want to believe in Santa Claus. But I just can’t bring myself to do so.

by DiscoJer on Aug 2, 2009 7:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he is real

he’s filled with tasty candy

Santa is also real, but he has back spasms. he’s counting on the elves to come through.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 2, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chicago's September

3 @ HOU
1 @ Pale Hose
3 @ Mets
3 @ PIT

3 vs CIN
4 vs MIL
3 @ STL
3 @ MIL
4 @ Giants

3 vs PIT
3 vs Dbacks

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 2, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

meanwhile, we meet:

3 vs MIL
3 @ PIT
3 @ MIL

3 vs Braves
3 vs Marlins

3 vs CHI
3 @ HOU

3 @ Rockies

3 @ CIN
3 vs MIL

So if the Cubs stay in, we may know by the 20th. If the Brewers play spoiler, it’ll be the last day of the season.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 2, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You also have to look at the Cubs...

being on the road for 20 games out of the final 33 games. They are 7 games below .500 away from home, and I expect that trend to continue while the Cards are .500 on the road.

by Jumsy on Aug 2, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my concern

is that the timing of the road trips don’t favor the Cardinals if the race remains tight.

The Cubs close at home for the last two series.
The Cardinals are away between the 21st of September to the 1st of October for three series, before closing at home… against Milwaukee.

I’m not inclined to worry, unless they cut it close.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 3, 2009 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You've got the first two Cubs series backward.

They start the month at home (actually only 2 games in September, 1st game of the series is 8/31) against the ’Stros and the White Sox make-up, then go to Citi Field, etc.

by ArkansasTravs on Aug 3, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my bad

I suspect correction shenanigans… I swear I went back to change things to “vs.”

But the order of the games is correct, yeah? I’m not pointing out the road/home in that comment.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Aug 4, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs