Whither Ludwick
by chuckb on Jul 5, 2009 10:35 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintOf course, you don’t need me to tell you Pujols is good. The whole idea is pretty silly, really. I just fell across that stuff as I was trying to figure out what the hell is wrong w/ Ryan Ludwick. The first thing that stands out is the noticeable drop in Ludwick’s LD rate. Last year it was 26.3% which I think most of us knew was unsustainably high but it’s gone from one of baseball’s highest to one of baseball’s lowest. This year it’s nearly 10% lower (16.8%). Not coincidently, I’m sure, his FB rate is about 8.5% higher – from 46.5% to 54.9%. Needless to say, unless all those extra fly balls are leaving the ballpark, fewer line drives and more fly balls means a lower batting average. As a result, his BABIP has fallen 100 points – from .349 to .250. As it turns out, his fly balls are leaving the ballpark at a much lower rate as well as his HR/FB has fallen from 19.9% to 11.6%, which is much closer to league average. Still, Ludwick has very good power so his HR/FB shouldn’t be nearly league average. Between 18-20% or so is where it probably belongs. One of the reasons fewer fly balls are leaving the park is b/c he’s popping more balls up – many more. His IFFB% has gone up from 8.6% to 12.6% but when you consider that his FB rate has risen as well – last year he popped up about 4% of the time; this year he’s popping up about 7% of the time. Fewer line drives, more popups – he’s simply not squaring up the ball the way he did last year.
Is he overanxious at the plate? Last year he averaged 3.84 P/PA and he’s at 3.79 this year – hardly a huge difference. However, he’s seeing fewer strikes this year – down from 52.3% to 49.8%. This is somewhat surprising considering how prolific he was last year. You’d expect that pitchers would have pitched around him more last year and, since he’s not hitting the ball well, they’d be more likely to go after him this year. This tells me that he probably is somewhat anxious at the plate. His walk rate is down from 10.3% to 8.5%. He’s swinging at more pitches this year – 4.5% more pitches outside the zone and 4.5% more inside the zone. It stands to reason that he’s pressing somewhat. The offense is struggling and he’s struggling and so it’s unsurprising that he’s become anxious. Still, it seems to be working against him and he needs to relax and see more pitches and look for his pitch, rather than just swinging at what the pitcher tosses up there. If he’s seeing fewer strikes, he should be seeing more P/PA – not fewer – even if it’s just .05 P/PA fewer.
He’s actually making contact more frequently than he did last year, to which the reduction in his K rate (from 27.1% to 20.1%) will attest. Maybe we need him to be more picky and then, when he gets his pitch, more aggressive. Maybe we’re better off w/ more swing-and-misses b/c it allows him another pitch (often) rather than a popup to 2nd. Last year Ludwick crushed fastballs, to the tune of 34.9 wRAA but this year he’s just at 3.2 wRAA against the fastball. He’s seeing a bit fewer fastballs this year (down to 51.6% from 55.4%) and a few more sliders this year – with which he’s really struggling. He was about average w/ the slider last year and he’s more than 4 runs below average in half a season so far this year.
You’d have to say that some of his struggles this season are attributable to bad luck. His BABIP has fallen by 100 points and is about 40-45 points below league average. Still, he appears to be more anxious and, as a result, isn’t hitting the ball nearly as solidly as he did last year. It would behoove him – and the team – to be more patient at the plate and then, when he gets his pitch, explode into it. If he’s worrying about swinging and missing, he should stop. I’ll take a few more Ks to get his slugging % back over .500. It’s down more than 160 points from last season.
I still have faith in Ludwick. I think his upside is higher than either Duncan’s or Ankiel’s – last year’s success supports that – so I’d rather see him playing every day than either of the other 2 lefties. Honestly, what does Duncan have to offer? A few more walks, I suppose, but at least Ludwick has the possibility of hitting the ball out of the yard. He is still 2nd on the team in dingers, though Rasmus is right on his heels.
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dfa duncan
would much rather bring Stavinoha back up and dfa Duncan already!!
Bat Rasmus 4th after Pujols, have Ludwick either #2 or #5 in the batting order and play Rasmus/Ludwick everyday.
"How can a Mexican lose the ball in the sun" ? Harry Caray
by bigchieftootiemontana on Jul 5, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions
If we're gonna dfa an outfielder
I’d almost prefer it be Ankiel. I just see nothing that he does that is positive.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
arm, better defense, slightly more power than Dunc
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Those aren't "positives"
Well, the arm is a positive, but that’s the only thing he does that would fall into that category. And to clarify, just because he plays defense better than Duncan doesn’t make it a positive.
The power is negligible so if I’m weighing Ank’s arm vs Dunc’s 50 extra obp points, I’ll take Dunc.
But, then again, you are comparing our two worst outfielders and, while I’m not buying the power thing, the only thing Ank does better than Duncan is throw and catch. He does throw bullets, but his fielding is not good. Definitely not a positive although it is less of an issue in left field.
Another positive (i guess it’s a positive) I’ll give you is Ank is definitely faster than Duncan (although, I might think duncan is a better baserunner) but when you’re getting on base at a .284 clip, it doesn’t really matter how fast you are especially when you’re just fast, and not like Vince Coleman fast. That kind of fast makes up for a whole lot of deficiencies.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
weird thing is
Ank plays way better in RF than anywhere else, but they hardly ever play him there. Ank with his extra speed and way better arm seems to be a good thing to me, since they both stink at offense for the most part.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Last year heading in to this season
I really felt the best outfield configuration was Ank in right, Colby in center and Lud in left. And it was based pretty much solely on Ankiel’s arm being a much greater asset in right as opposed to left.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I think Ank is only marginally faster than Dunc.
I would never go out and say that Ank is fast. He has 5-10 SB speed…not even Pujols numbers. Duncan runs the bases way better.
Stavinoha is horrible
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 5, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
the animals came two by two,
and were promptly infected. God later said, “Oops, that was the wrong Noah.”
cardinals are the things with feathers that perch within the soul.
there's no need to DFA duncan
he has one option year left, so we could just send him to Memphis for the rest of the season. Which makes it even more perplexing that they’re keeping a replacement-level player on the team and giving him regular starts…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Giving him regular starts
is the part driving most nuts. Dunc is a better option than what is healthy in Memphis as a pinch hitter.
An outfield of Rasmus, Ludwick and Holliday (or someone of his caliber with a bat) would be nice. Too bad no GM on the planet is dumb enough to take Ankiel and Dunc. Don’t get me wrong, some day I think Ankiel will be a good outfielder, and would in fact like him to stay a Cardinal but he’s got to start producing consistently. Duncan on the other hand, well, are there any openings in AA for a 1B that used to be able to hit?
I always wonder about what people mean when they say...
some day I think Ankiel will be a good outfielder
When? He’s 30 years old and is in his 2nd full season in MLB. He’s never had a good full season not to mention his salary is going to sky rocket next year.
Who has the time, patience, and cash to wait this dude out before he goes in to decline….that is assuming he actually reaches his potential before he starts to decline. Personally, I think you’ve seen the best of Rick and that was last year (heck, maybe it was that callup at the end of 2007?)
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
He’s never had a good full season not to mention his salary is going to sky rocket next year.
He was worth 2.0 WAR last year in a little over 2/3 of a full season, and it could have been higher had he not been injured for the last ~50 plate appearances. In 07, he was worth 1.4 WAR in less than 1/3 of a season, not to mention his great numbers in the minors. In fact this year is the only year in which he hasn’t been productive as a hitter.
Derosa.
And he's still yet to play a full major league season
and has a history of getting injured.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Ank & Free agency
I don’t see Ankiel getting the big bucks next year. The combination of his less than stellar offense and the backlash of a tough economic market are going to have a big impact on his value. At best, he will sign a one year deal around $5 mm.
Its likely
Boras will have a plan. Other organizations may have different opinions and solutions to his swing issues. He will not receive a hard, multi-year contract anywhere. Think Felipe Lopez at 3.5 for a year.
something i dont get
We have the best player in baseball, a top five starter and a top five closer in the NL.
It looks like that’s going to hold true for 2-5 more seasons.
We’re not a matt holiday in the middle of the most expensive part of a season to acquire new talent away. Matt holiday isn’t even that good. When the best player in baseball, perhaps the best to ever play the game, is on your team you don’t want to clip a series title here, and a series appearance there.
You want a dynasty, and you need to build for one. With a mid-market team that means some help from pujols financially and an organization that builds within and keeps it within. Reaching for mid level talent to augment your lineup mid-season is an easy way to piss it away.
Franklin gave us legitimate depth in our closer spot which allowed us to get DeRosa. We have no more depth unless there’s a first basemen out there that I don’t know about.
Somewhere
in the second paragraph of that post, I was thinking, “of Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick, he [Ludwick’s] the one that can actually deliver.” And finding that conclusion at the end of your piece, made me realize how good it is, as a Cards fan, to be able enjoy these excellent posts on a daily basis and concur or disagree with this important baseball thing.
I read something about an alteration in Ludwick’s stance, has he altered his approach? Somehow, it is not surprising that a guy like Ludwick, who to my eyes is a natural ball-player and formidable hitter, after those hindered years of trying to obtain a foothold on a peak and finally doing so, might struggle with a follow-up. But he seemed to start out the season well, and watching him and considering your comments suggests if he just overcame a few personal obstacles he’d transform this offense.
Ludwick’s the one to do it.
Other mysteries remain. TL
haven't we asked this before?
/tongue-in-cheek
I’ve been trying to look for the stories from last year since the Put me in coach thread and the hue and cry about Rasmus. Should dig deeper, but check it out:
Making his numbers even more spectacular is the fact that his raw numbers are so high (homers, RBI) and yet he doesn’t even have enough PA’s to qualify for the batting title. Of the top 30 hitters in baseball in terms of VORP, only 1 fails to qualify – Ryan Ludwick. In fact, Ludwick has taken only 7.3% of the team’s PA’s. This is the lowest percentage of team PA’s of any hitter among the top 138 hitters in baseball, as measured by VORP. (Kaz Matsui and Alfonso Soriano, 80th and 101st, respectively, have also taken only 7.3% of their team’s PA’s but they both have been injured and have served time on the DL this year.)
My point here isn’t to beat Tony up about Ludwick having so few PA’s, but rather to illustrate just how tremendous Ludwick has been so far this season. Imagine what his numbers would be like if he had Ankiel’s or Schumaker’s 151 AB’s rather than the 112 he had entering yesterday’s game. Still, at what point does Ludwick become an everyday player? If not now, when?
- the illustrious chuckb
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2008/5/18/519933/did-anyone-honestly-antici
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
my opinion
is to put Ludwick in the lineup, bat him forth or fifth and stick with him. Duncan is a liability to the club and needs to go. Ankiel should stay as fourth outfielder.
I haven’t given up on Ankiel, yet I agree with what someone said on a thread the other day that he seems to be a little stubborn on taking instruction and refuses to learn form his mistakes.
I just can’t shake the feeling that he might just figure something out and then explode someday. the talent is there. With Duncan it’s not.
the fact that ludwick's not starting every day
despite the fact he was one of the 3 or 4 best OF in baseball last year is embarassing. TLR is baffling. Even whilst struggling, there is no way Ank or Dunc are close to being as good as Lud (he’s a better hitter and defender than both), so why play worse players? Lame.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Why do people continue to be surprised at TLR odd behavior?
Why does anyone thing the guy can really evaluate talent?
He played Rick/Dunc over Ludwick last year when he was one of the best hitters in the MLB. Why would you be surprised that it continues?
He seems completely unable to evaluate Thurston, Ankiel, Miles, McCellan, Perez, or Mulder objectively. He is the person that pushed for trading Haren for Mulder.
At what point do we just admit he cannot evaluate talent. He can push players to play hard, but he only works well with one type of player. He respect grit more than real talent.
Hopefully Mgt will finally realize how limited he is and replace him with a manager more in touch with “modern” baseball.
by DriverZn on Jul 6, 2009 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I dunno about the
Haren/Mulder comment. Jocketty was a great GM at finding deals for proven vets. He was the one going after that, I believe.
That was in regards to his "argument" with his pitching coach over trading Haren.
Tony is on the record as pushing it in spite of Duncan’s objection.
Ryan is truely
a victim of Hal McRae’s inability to communicate. The reasons Tony said in March that “this guy is all screwed up” haven’t change a bit. In an attempt to defend the holes in his swing, the adjustments made have rendered him ineffective in even dealing with the down and in pitch he handled so well last year resulting in Hr’s. The “open stance step in timing mechanism”, put in this year, has been a disaster even for his favorite pitch. What has happened is, instead of adjusting his swing plane and hitting some off field line drives, thus earning some inside pitches, he is “stepping in” during this crucial time. The result are those lazy fly balls to right that usually come late in the count because he is still using his open should upper cut swing against the “pitch away”. Hal’s big challenge to him is based on the believe that he will eventually time this “step in” better and all problems will go away. Right!!!!!!!!
Just getting to the game
Its the Six. Luddy has closed the distance on his step in move by half, and has pulled the ball every time it appears. It still sucks but at least there is exploration.
Wow
Alot of Duncan hating going on here.
I agree that he isn’t getting much done this year (though he has arguably been as good as Luddy, and better than Rick), but I think the guy still has talent. I’d rather him be coming off the bench for us, but we don’t have 3 clearly better options.
Another thing that is funny are all those that say TLR plays favorites, and doesn’t play those that are “producing”. Fair enough, but if he were doing that, Luddy would likely be on the bench. Because outside of Colby, none of the OF’s are doing a damn thing.
I’d really hate to be Mo this offseason, trying to figure out what he has in guys like Luddy, Duncan, Ank (if we try to keep him), and Ryan.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
When you look at what those 3 guys will make in dollars
i personally think it becomes painfully obvious who stays and who goes.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I assume.....
You think we’ll keep Luddy, Duncan, and Ryan, and let Ank walk?
I have no problem with that. I just hope that if we do that, we either resign DeRosa to play LF, or go find a GOOD OF bat, one that would relegate Duncan to the bench.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
There's always a chance the other outfielder could be
Joe Mather or Daryl Jones or….who knows. It’s way too early to talk about who should fill that 3rd/4th spot. I’m just saying that IMO, signing Rick is a horrible mistake.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I will cry if we resign Ankiel
I don’t want him on this team anymore. Duncan is still cost controlled and the same for Ludwick.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 5, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Jones will be ready next year.....
And that is just my personal opinion after watching him last week.
Mather is a decent option, but only if Luddy returns to form. Otherwise, we need better.
But I agree that I don’t want to resign Rick, at what it would likely take to do so.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
I just threw those names out there
I’m not making predictions about who’s going to be called up or who has a future or whatever. Just making a statement about Rick.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I am hoping Jay has a strong second half
He reminds me a lot Skip honestly with probably a better glove.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 5, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but can he play 2nd?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Ludwick should play because:
OPS RISP
Luddy—>.970
Dunc—→.761
Dick——>.611
OPS High Leverage
Luddy—>.893
Dunc—→.838
Dick——>.445
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Ouch
The stats confirm what I’ve been seeing with my eyes. I wonder what Tyler Greene’s clutch stats are. I think I know.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
probably similar to his non-clutch ones
i.e. terrible.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the sample size for Rick
is close to getting big enough to say that it is.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
well played
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
how the hell is Duncan as good as Ludwick
and better than Ankiel… I don’t buy it
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
My world is shattered
The Giants have had a scout following Sanchez, a source confirmed yesterday, and their interest in LaRoche goes back several months. Their preference at first base, though, is for a right-handed bat.
Stat Whore
Does this mean...
Chris Duncan for Matt Cain is not going to happen?
since A-B is no longer ours...
can we throw in A-B for the Golden Gate and see if they don’t figure it out?
RBI Overrated?
As an aside, you commented that RBI may be an overrated statistic. To me, RBI is the bottom line offensive statistic, with the only caveat being you have to also consider where in the lineup the batter hits and who is in front and behind. That being said, the only thing that matters for an offense is how many runs are scored. Hits, walks, doubles, triples and even homeruns are only the means to an end. If a guy produces 100 RBI with 40 homeruns, or 100 RBI with 5 homeruns, it doesn’t seem any different.
This is likely a discussion for another post, or maybe it has been hashed out enough before, but I am intrigued about your rationale on this statistic.
I'd like to see a stat.....
And maybe it exists, that measures how often a guy drives in runners from 2nd and 3rd.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
His line
.250/.500/.250/.750 in 6 AB’s.
He has been a lot better with men in RISP than not, .970 OPS RISP vs .650 not
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 5, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea.....
But I’m talking something like Player X has come to the plate with 25 runners on 2nd and/or 3rd base, and he has driven in 10 of them.
Something like that.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
Who's more valuable?
Player A with 0 runs scored and 100 rbi, or Player B with 100 runs scored and 0 rbi?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
how did
player B score? He has 0 RBI, so someone did something to get him home? Some runs score wo an RBI but vast majority have a RBI. The two stats are related.
Really, it doesn't matter
I could say he hit 100 doubles while Player A hit him in with 100 singles. Or Player B walked 100 times and stole 2nd base 100 times and again scored on those 100 singles.
Frankly, I’m not sure it matters.
I get that it’s about as simplistic as it gets. Sure, you need guys who knock in runs, but you also need guys who can get on base and score (fyi, they’re equally important). In this example, you could almost give Player A the name Brendan Ryan and Player B the name Albert Pujols. Albert is going to hit a lot of doubles and runs the bases well and aggressively, which would allow him to score on all those singles hit behind him by Brendan Ryan.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Runs
of,course, are the most important. It is, after all, what the offense is supposed to do, and what the lineup construction should be designed to do. Nicodemus may be right about this being a subject for another post, but I was curious about the examples you gave. I sometimes wonder if some people overrate RBI while some underrate it. Given the same situations, a good hitter will have more RBI than a lesser hitter, but both have to have someone on base in front of them.
That's exactly the point
and why rbi’s are not a good predictor of offensive talent. It is almost totally dependent upon someone else (outside of home runs). If you don’t hit the ball out of the park, you can’t get rbi.
Heck, you can even get rbi while making outs. What does that say?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I don't know
anyone who has claimed rbi to be ppredictive. But, runs – outsside of homeruns- are also dependant on someone else ( it is possible for a player to get on base and steal his way around the bases to score, but how often doess that happen?) A player who gets an rbi while making an out means a run has scored for the team. Again, runs are most important, bur every rbi means a run scored.
game thread up
Thanks joker
at least someone got it.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Luddy's July 5th game
1 for 5, 3 runs scored. Now that is production. And he even left 2 RISP with 2 out.
So...
Say Randy Winn has an OBP of .328 this year and a SLG of .401 (which he does) while…Ben Fransisco has an OBP of .321 this year and a SLG of .395 (which he does). If Winn had scored 42 runs and driven in 34 (which he has) and Fransisco had scored 50 and driven in 40 (which he hasn’t) would you rather have Winn? What if Fransisco had scored 55 and driven in 50? There’s a big difference between 42 runs and 55 runs. There’s a big difference between 34 and 50 RBI.
I would rather have francisco
because it means my team would’ve scored more runs up to this point. However, his RBI/runs stats have absolutely no predictive value to say that he’ll be any more productive in the future than Winn will. They’re largely dependent on how the rest of the team will perform.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't believe we're still having discussions about RBIs
as useful tools to valuing players. What is this — 1978?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
The player with 0 RBI's
Because he is scoring more runs, you can bet that he is getting on base at a higher clip; thus he is making less outs and allowing more hitters to come to the plate.
Derosa.
Albert has
a TON of RBI so far. Imagine how many he’d have if people actually got on base in front of him. Most of Albert’s home runs have been solo shots, something that has cost him RBI.
At any rate, RBI is team-dependent. It’s sort of – but not exactly – like W-L for pitchers.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
RBI Overrated.
RBI is without a doubt among the most overrated statistics in the history of statistics. Yes, the team scored a run, but despite the fact that one player got an RBI for it, it takes into account nothing about his power, patience, the activity of the defense, the runner who scored, etc.
Ryan Howard gets more RBIs than Albert Pujols almost every year. No one in their right mind would argue that Howard is better than Pujols (except a few idiot baseball writers who come out of the woodwork every year to vote for the MVP). Ryan Howard bats behind Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, people who put up OBPs in the mid-to-high 300s rather than whoever Tony LaRussa thinks needs to “see better pitches” batting in front of Pujols. These guys on the Philly squad are also all good, speedy baserunners. Ryan Howard is on a better offense and sometimes gets as many as 50 plate appearances more than Pujols in a year. Albert Pujols also would definitely get more RBIs if he didn’t walk so much, are you going to argue that he should be less patient?
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
To amplify
Howard had 47 more PAs and 60 more ABs than Pujols in 2008 with RISP. Howard took advantage with a 1.028 OPS in those opportunities including a .320 BA and .589 SLG. Meanwhile Pujols OPSed 1.201 with a .339 BA and .678 SLG. Howard was intentionally walked 16 times with RISP while Pujols was IBBed 34 times.
Howard had 30 more RBIs, but he was not a superior run producer.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
RBI is completely context-dependent
with the only caveat being you have to also consider where in the lineup the batter hits and who is in front and behind.
This is exactly why you can’t use RBI as any kind of measure of offensive ability. A few years back, 2005 I believe, Andruw Jones had a 135 RBI or something, but only hit like .230 w/ a low OBP in RBI situations. That means he got a lot of RBI NOT because of his own abilities, but because his teammates were good enough to get on base a lot.
The point of baseball metrics is to isolate individual contributions to the greatest possible degree and to create a numeric representation of those results. RBI isn’t isolated, and therefore isn’t all that useful.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 5, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Tommy Herr: an example both ways
Herr hit over .300 twice in his career; in a full season of ‘85 he drove in an incredible (for him) 110 runs, but he was mostly hitting in the 3 hole as I recall, and usually in back of two switch-hitting rabbits. Also, ’85 was a successful year for the team overall.
Playing only a half season in ’83, he had a career best batting avg of .323, but in a little more than half the ab’s of the ‘85 season, he had a relatively paltry 31 rbi. And, ’83 was something of a re-building year for the team, and I am sure Herr did not hit in an rbi spot that year.
So, which is the ’true’ Tommy Herr? Both? Neither? Like you guys are saying, rbi’s as a barometer is complex and inconclusive.
Yeah!!!
Rbi’s are like a big chew of Red Man. It can be very satisfying for those in need of satisfaction.
All things being equal. Do you pick a guy with 100rbi’s to pinch hit, or a gut with 50. The fans will tell you that they notice something. What is it that they notice?
Depends on the situation.
All things are not equal. Who has the higher batting average? Are there runners in scoring position and what are the numbers in that situation?
RBI depends on batting order. If all things are equal (which rarely happens by the way) the guy with 50 RBI might be the 2nd place hitter, the guy with 100 RBI the 3rd place hitter. The 2nd place hitter might score more runs, and maybe he’s faster which is why he bats second.
RBI is NOT how I’m making that decision.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Your thinking
is very clear and concise. The problem is, when you select criteria like these and admit all thing are never equal, you must realize they’re not equal for a reason. The process which makes a hitter the number 2or the 4 is just as valid an indication of prowess as any other. I would also add 3 and 4 hitters are paid allot more as are the coaches that decide this truth.
I choose the Red Man. Take a big chaw, spit a big string of snoose on the dugout floor, and say “son, were paying you play ball here”. Now get in there and make me proud." I won’t say which one I chose because its a crap shoot anyway.
RBI's are dependant on your teammates,
and they only consider one side of the ball, when there are really 2: driving in runs and scoring runs. If a guy drives in a lot of runs while getting on base at a .300 clip, he isn’t very valuable as he is wasting a lot of outs and not putting himself in a position to score.
Derosa.
do you play poker?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Lineup
Skip 2B
Raz CF
AP 1B
Luddy RF
Ankiel LF
Molina C
Thurston 3B
Carpenter P
Ryan SS
Probably the best lineup we can run out there these days.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
so much for the talk at stlcardinals.com
that Hoff had earned a start- even though Tony doesn’t believe in that kind of stuff
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
i think he probably should
we need a non-crap RH platoon mate for Schu. It’s worth giving the Hoff a chance.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Hoff isn't a good option
His offense is okay, but his defense makes him a pretty bad player. I would rather have Tyler Greene there.
Derosa.
OT: Exciting tennis going on right now.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
yeah it is
not quite Nadal-Federer level but it’s still terrific. Roddick doesn’t look anything like a guy who’s 18-2 vs Fed in his career
That match
last year was phenomenal. I’m pretty geeked about Roddick’s performance, though.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Roddick is
going to need to break Federer’s serve one more time to win this thing.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
this match has been all about the serves
Roddick has broken Fed’s serves a couple times; Fed hasn’t broken one yet. I can’t believe I’m saying this but Roddick has the edge right now
Ugh.
Chance might’ve been missed.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Roddick's been missing the easier shots
Getting brilliant shots in the faster volleys. Don’t tire out and don’t think too much, Andy.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Indeed.
I want Roddick to win.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
THAT shot
was great!
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
crap, he called for a challenge
When the line judge said fault. And it was in.
Stupid Rolex.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
dude, don't tempt the GOB
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
amazing
2 years in a row w/ a truly epic wimbledon final. i wish more ppl in the US were into Tennis!
Agreed.
And agreed.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
67 games so far
A new record for men’s. er, gentlemen’s. I think that’s for the championship.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Insane.
And they’re playing so fast, too.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
this is awesome
roddick looks as good as i’ve ever seen him
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
man, you can't let Federer get to 40
He’ll just finish it with an ace.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
scratch that
If he’s serving.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
21 games in the 5th set
new record
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
hurry the eff up
Ballgame is starting soon.
It’s Carpenter, it’ll be in the fifth inning by break point.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is killing me!
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
no, this is like watching Carpenter
Which I want to be doing right now.
Stupid old tv.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
if only Roddick had finished off the 2nd set
and again, i’m not even sure who i want to win, but he had him back then
either way, it's history
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I agree.
Missed opportunity.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
longest championship match ever
4 hours in.
Those shadows are going to be a factor, I think.
The Queen snubbed them because the other Andy didn’t make it.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
weak
if she was gonna go, she needs to go, period.
she can just not plan to go at all. but to back out cause her guy lost is weak
she's old
I’m sure she’s watching on the telly.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yesss clouds
Stay there clouds! No more of this sun-shadow nonsense.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that's what the Armada said
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
fucccck
Come on, Andy.
135 mph serve.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
couple times fed's been close
to getting the break he needs. How long can Roddick keep saving it from Deuce?
ugggggghhhh man.
And they are sweating. Performance fabrics. Cameras stopped showing Andy toweling off after every point.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Andy sweats A LOT.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Poor Andy.
What an amazing match.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
i hope this match was a sign of things to come for andy
he had the serve, forehand and backhand working
His backhand
did look much improved. That was easily the weakest part of his game until recently.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
exactly
and though i do feel for him, I’m excited to see if he can keep this up cause if he does he’ll win. he’s 26, so he’s got another couple good years left
I have this sinking
feeling that’s the best we’ll ever see Roddick. Hope I’m way wrong.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
i think you're right
at the end of the day he’s always going to be just that one notch below being a real world-beater. FWIW I think Murray could end up being the same, although he’s got a better recent record vs Nadal and Federer.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions
technical Q:
how do I get that “new comment” black box from appearing on the bottom right of my screen every time someone makes a new response to a prompt?
ie I want to stop it from showing up.
Unclick
the Auto-Refresh box under the main post, before the comments. I think.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
same
I’m almost sure that works.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Of course,
you won’t get new posts that way. You’d have to manually refresh.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
thanks
it’s a cul-de-sac then. I WANT the new post automatically, just don’t want the alert thingie.
I appreciate the help
What do you
have against the alert?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
it blocks some of the words I am reading
temporaily, of course… but mainly it makes it harder to post a comment, because I have to jiggle wiggle my track ball during my typing
Really?
Mine is always in the dead space. Weird. What browser are you using?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
mine too.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Luddy worked out too much over the winter & gained too much muscle
in an effort to prove to the world last year was not a fluke & he deserves to make multiple millions per year. then like Opera Don’t Call Me WCBW Card pointed out, he messed with his swing in order to compensate for the extra muscle mass, and now he’s half the hitter he once was.
so what needs to be done to fix his swing? is it as easy as watching some tape of last season like Adam did to fix his mechanics? could be. the Cards supposedly have the best video program in baseball, heck Albert even uses it in games so see what he’s doing wrong. sure sounds like something a hitting coach should suggest. do the Cards have one of those?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
McRae should be fired.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Gotta B Anxious
Just got back from seeing two games at Great American. Lud put on a show during BP Friday that was amazing. HR, HR, bigger HR. He squared everything and must have hit 12 big flies in 15 BP pitches. I have got to believe it is in his head. During the game, he didn’t seem the same. Almost like he would determine if he would swing before the pitch was thrown. Not as bad as Ank on that, but similar.
TLR: Please start Colby!
in first place again
wooo!
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions
next up Wainwright vs. Gallardo (both 8-5) on Tuesday
3.79 fip vs. 3.66 fip
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Pre vs Post injury
Could something still be lingering from his injury? Ludwick had 120 plate appearances before getting hurt and 122 since returning. His overall stats (BA/OBP/SLG) suggest he might not be fully healed, which has been a problem his whole career.
Pre – .274/.339/.538
Post – .204/.281/.324
To be fair,
Luddy’s other injuries were of the more freak nature. I think not going on rehab is what screwed him. He’s pressing, not injured. Except for that shiner.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
"luggage"
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
The first rule about "luggage" is
don’t talk about “luggage!”
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
there is really nothing wrong with ludwick
last year he played way over his head. i never saw him sustaining anything close to a .300 batting average. he is more like a .250-.265 hitter with some pop. he is a serviceable outfielder but by no means should he be batting cleanup (and he wouldn’t if we had anyone else capable of hitting not names Rasmus).
if we had traded ludwick for holliday last year
the members of this blog would’ve lynched Mo. And rightly so.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2009 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Why rightly so?
Obviously, moving forward, we’ve seen that Holliday has been a much better player this year and will probably continue to do so in the future. Ludwick has had exactly one healthy season and he played amazingly well…however, will we ever see another completely healthy season out of him to perform anywhere near that well? I just don’t know. Holliday has put together about a dozen straight healthy seasons going back further than his MLB playing days. He just plays every day at a top level. I’ll take the guy that does that year in and year out rather than slightly better, once.
The original refused offer
was Ludwick, Shumaker and Boggs.
I think at this point I'd have made that trade if it were Perez...
depending on what “prospects” means. We could really use those .060 OBP points in front of Albert.
So I meant to do that one...
figured it went along with the theme…although may have been funnier if I hadn’t meant to.
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