The pitches the Cardinals throw.

by DriverZn on Jul 4, 2009 3:53 AM EDT Comment 22 comments

A lot has been made about the pitch selection of the Cardinals. Some have complained we throw too many high stress pitches and avoid the low-stress stuff. But how does it break down? For the purpose here I am going to combine the % for sliders and cutters. The data from fangraphs doesn't see to match all that well with what pitchers are often said to be throwing. For instance Carp is listed as throwing more sliders than cutters. First lets look at the total team data.

As a team we throw

58.5% Fastballs, 21st most. (#1 Mariners, 69.7%)
20.3% Sliders and cutters, 10th most. (#1 Cubs, 28.1%)
12.7% Curveballs, 2nd most. (#1 Astros, 14.2%)
8.1% Changeups, 27th most, (#1, Indians, 14.9%)

And the resuts we get

Fastball, 15th @ -7.3 (Dodgers +37.9, Indians -59.2)
Slider & Cutter, 10th @ +21.5 (Athletics +51.3, Nationals -16.1)
Curveballs 1st @ +21.5 (Twins -8.1)
Changeups 26th @ -6.9 (Blue Jays +27.9, Rangers -19.6)

And the same but for just the starters.

58.4% Fastballs, 17st most. (#1 Mets, 68.2%)
17.4% Sliders and cutters, 14th most. (#1 Blue Jays, 26.8%)
14.0% Curveballs, 4nd most. (#1 Astros, 15.9%)
9.3% Changeups, 22th most, (#1, Indians, 17.8%)

Results

Fastball 12th @ -5.5. (Dodgers +20.1, Indians -43.9)
Slider & Cutter 6th @ +16.9 (Diamondbacks +23.4, Phillies -7.3)
Curveballs 1st @ +23.9 (2nd Dodgers 17.7, Twins -8.3)
Changeups 28th @ -9.9 (Blue Jays 19, Phillies -18.7)

As a team our starters have been getting the best results of any team with the Curveball. What's more interesting is of all the secondary pitches no other teams has gotten more value than we have. Wainwright (1st overall) and Carpenter (11th) really use it to great effect.

The other notable is the Changeup where we don't use it often, and we we do the resuts are not good. Kyle Lohse +4.8 is our only regular starter with a net positive changeup. Wellemeyer -12.3 has the bulk of the damage.

Nothing else really stands as a team.

Individually Wainwright is somewhat odd. FB -16.2, SL +8.4, CB +13.9, CH +0.7. He is getting killed on his fastball but dominating with his secondary stuff. He is currently ranked as having the #1 CB, #4 CH, and gulp, 2nd worse FB by result in the majors.

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Comments

The Wagonmaker

Al thinks Wainwright should throw more fastballs, because he’s “lost it” or something weird…but oh those facts. As John Adams said, “Facts are stubborn things.”

Wainwright has thrown a similar number of fastballs this year as the last two and has thrown them HARDER! But yeah, he’s overusing the slider (that pitch for Wainwright seems like more of a BB than a FB to me, anyway I think we all know what I’m talking about), which has been an 8.4 run pitch for him…Damn Al!

The interesting thing about the BOB’s two best guys, Carpenter and Wainwright, is that they have theoretically the same repertoire (FB/CT-SL/CB) but really are different pitchers. Carpenter throws bowling ball sinkers in the low-90’s and is a little more like Roy Halladay IMO, while Wainwright is by approach more of a control master w/ a straigher fastball. Anyway, I’m glad this team has them together, both are pretty damn good.

Interesting post BTW. Thanks for puting this together

VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 4:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Wainwrights fastball has been an awful pitch for him this year, -16.2 runs so far. However his offspeed pitches have all been positive, and his curve and slider (which are too very distinct pitches) are both netting him over 2 wins combined. I wrote a post on Driveline looking at Wainwrights great start against the giants, and a lot of his success was on curveball’s just under the strike zone.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

When I wrote the post, FanGraphs didn’t update their pitch values section yet. Waino’s curve was worthy +10.4 runs. Now, it’s been worth +13.9 runs, meaning it was worth about 3.5 runs in his last start a lone.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that seems ludicrous

even for a really good curveball

Albert Pujols is ridiculous.

by stlhulsey on Jul 6, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much

worse is Wainer’s FB than in previous seasons? He seems to have poorer command of it than in previous seasons.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 4, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Waino's FB

Maybe with the increased velocity came a loss in movement and command? That’s all I can think of right now that might be affecting the numbers so badly.

by stlfan on Jul 4, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Command Problems...

…often result from velocity increases.

Maddux came up throwing 93 but was more effective if he backed off to around 90 because he could command his FB better.

by thepainguy on Jul 4, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Waino's fastball is the same speed this year compared to last

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The average velocity increase is negligible

He’s throwing his FB on average faster, but it’s only a fraction of a MPH.

VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about

the knuckleball and the bat dodger?

Other mysteries remain. TL

by BKKCard on Jul 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The negative fastball doesn't surprise me much.

None of our players outside of Motte features an electric fastball. We’ve got a bunch of pitchers and no throwers (and I’m not sure that’s necessarily the good thing it’s often made out to be).

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jul 4, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Waino's been within 5 runs of average on the fastball in each of the last 2 years

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Motte's Fastball

Being a reliever I assume lowers values but Motte has a 1.4 fastball this compared to 5.6 last year. Franklin has a 5.5 this year versus a -2.4 last year.

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jul 6, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sample size?

The data on Waino’s FB and CB seems aberrant and weird. How bad does your fastball have to be to be worth -15 runs (1.5 Wins, jesus christ) in half a season? To say he has the second worst FB in the majors right now seems pretty ludicrous. It seems to me that most of the data on the FB could be from his first few starts where he probably ditched the secondary stuff to attempt to improve his command, while the huge plusses on his CB are probably from starts like the other night where that pitch alone had a higher value than most of the players that played that night. One night of Waino’s curve has been worth more than Chris Duncan’s season.

Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.

Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

by hazel on Jul 4, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In generall the FB seems like a negative pitch for most pitchers.

Its probably a combination of things. Throwing fastballs after other things have gone wrong such as putting runners on base or getting behind in the count.

I just looked it up, the results for all MLB teams is:
FB: -351
SL+CT: +377
CB: +117
CH: +38

by DriverZn on Jul 4, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I'll look into that

as soon as my SQL stops being a fucking asshole. Some of my “research” has suggested that a players fastball production is correlated well with more variance in pitches, maybe Waino is throwing too many fastballs? Either way, there is no way that his fastball is actually that bad. Given that Pitch Values aren’t defense independent, luck could be playing a huge role as well.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 5, 2009 5:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2-seam, value in aggregation?

Good post, DriverZn, Thanx. Is there an easy way of differentiating 2-seam FB data from 4-seam? I’d be curious to see if the mythical Duncan magic bears out. Also, does it really make sense to look at the aggregate data seeing that each pitcher’s approach is different? As you pointed out the difference in approach b/t Wagonmaker and Carp. But I guess individual pitcher sample sizes a bit small at this point in the season. The aggregate data is nonetheless interesting. So our relievers do more and better with the FB, is the +1.8 differential significant? I have no clue of the variability in the data.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Jul 6, 2009 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know of an easy way to do it. Fangraphs doesn't seperate the two pitches.

PitchFX does, but that would require compiling all the data manually or using a source I don’t know about. I suspect somewhere on the web this data may be out there but I don’t know where to look for it.

The data seems highly variable if for no other reason than sample sizes for some of the less common pitches.

by DriverZn on Jul 6, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Pitch Values aren't defense independant, meaning random variation is probably very prevelent.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 7, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who is having the most success

with the Eephus?

And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.

by tangledbrett on Jul 10, 2009 12:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Parra threw a dandy today

But that was just because he tripped on the mound.

Great post, DriverZn, by the way. It looks like, as a whole, we are making the right pitch selections.

by Merry CRasmus on Jul 10, 2009 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, I mostly agree we are throwing the right stuff

However, there are a few pitchers on our staff I really think would be better off throwing more changeups.

PJ Walters, if he returns
Motte, would be a much, much better 2nd pitch for him than the slider.
Wainwright, its been a + pitch and much less stressful than the slider. Especially if he is going to be tossing 120+ pitches.

by DriverZn on Jul 10, 2009 5:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs