Put me in, coach
| PA | AB | H | HR | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | UZR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludwick | 116 | 103 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 22 | .204 | .278 | .330 | 2.0 |
| Ankiel | 118 | 111 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 26 | .225 | .271 | .396 | 2.5 |
| Duncan | 105 | 92 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 26 | .217 | .305 | .283 | -2.5 |
| Rasmus | 99 | 98 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 15 | .327 | .327 | .531 | 10.4 |
What’s wrong w/ this picture? Rasmus has the most hits and the fewest Ks and has the fewest PAs of the 4. His slugging % over the month-plus is nearly Ludwick’s and Duncan’s respective OPSes. Now, I’m a little disappointed and frustrated by the fact that he hasn’t walked since May 25 but his OPS is still over .850 over the time period. If the other 3 were hitting, there would be more reason to be concerned about Rasmus’s lack of walks but considering the OPS difference between he and #2 – Ankiel (191 points!) – harping on the lack of walks seems to be nitpicking. Rasmus though is a liability defensively, right? Wrong. He’s the best we’ve got and it’s not even close …AND he plays the toughest, and most important, of the 3 defensive positions. I understand that the guy needs a day off every now and then, but there is absolutely no reason for him NOT to be in the starting lineup every day. Sit him against lefties? Why? So Ankiel and Duncan can play in his stead? Look at the numbers? They’re both lefties as well who struggle against southpaws. Exactly what do we gain by sitting him? There’s no excuse or justification for him not to be in the lineup every day. What more needs to be said?
Good article over at fangraphs re: Pineiro’s metamorphosis this season. Is it sustainable? The article says "yes." It’s meaningful b/c Pineiro will be a free agent at the end of the season. I need to see more in order to be convinced but he’s been fantastic, by and large.
I was glad to see Jarrett Hoffpauir’s promotion and his success last night. Hoffpauir’s always been one of my pets – a guy I always wanted to see get a chance and thought he deserved more than he’s gotten. I even wrote a thread about him about a year and a half ago comparing his minor league numbers to Dustin Pedroia’s. Just to be clear, I never said he’d be the same as Pedroia, just that he had some of the same skills and, though it took him longer to succeed at every level than it did Pedroia, I thought he had a chance to become a solid big leaguer. I’ve since tempered my optimism and he may never get another major league hit, but his walk and hit last night were huge (WPA = .469; Albert’s = .459) and I’m happy for him. Hoffpauir:chuckb::Blake Hawksworth:DanUp.
Finally, I guess I should offer a bit of an explanation for my bizarre post last Sunday. I was clearly responding to the chatter that we were involved in talks for Matt Holliday but I was also preparing to leave on vacation Sunday morning. I put together that thread Saturday morning and never found out about the trade for DeRosa, which happened actually before my Holliday post went up, until Monday or Tuesday when I saw a snippet of someone playing LF for the Cards and wearing number 7. Joe Mather? Nope, he’s out for the year. WTF? Who is this masked man and please, God, don’t let it be Matt Holliday! Anyway, we likely paid a steep price for DeRosa. He’ll help, as I said last Sunday, and if trades are measured by what they do THIS SEASON, we’ll win. It seems, however, that we gave up Chris Perez and either Francisco Samuel or Jess Todd for DeRosa. That ain’t cheap! DeRosa’s probably a type-B free agent at the end of the year so he’s worth a supplemental draft pick but I feel it’s likely that the 2 pitchers will provide more wins, and probably several more, over the next 5-7 years than DeRosa and that supplemental pick will for the Cards. That said, if DeRosa’s win and a half gets us into the playoffs, might it be worth it anyway?
There are many who see trades as zero-sum games – that one team wins the trade and the other, necessarily, loses. I don’t agree, simply b/c the two teams often have different goals – as we and the Indians do now. Ours is to win today while still maintaining the ability to win next year and beyond. Theirs is to win in the future. DeRosa may help us win the division or Wild Card this year and the 2 pitchers may help the Indians be successful in the future and then we would have both gotten what we wanted. Still, I’d have much rather given up only Perez.
One of the trades that people often use as a cautionary tale about making trade deadline deals is one made in 1987 when the Atlanta Braves traded starting pitcher Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect named John Smoltz. Alexander, for most of his career, was an OK starting pitcher and Smoltz was a star for a Braves team that won about 74 division championships in a row. He’ll be a Hall of Famer, in all likelihood, and people often point to that trade as a bad one for the Tigers and a great one for the Braves. It clearly was a great one for the Braves, who weren’t going anywhere in 1987. However, Alexander had a 1.53 in 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. His FIP was 3.20 in those 11 starts – 2nd only to his 1972 season in a 19 year career. Over those 11 starts and 88 IP, he was worth 3.9 wins. The Tigers finished 98-64 that season, defeating the Blue Jays by just 2 games in the AL East. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that Alexander’s acquisition was the difference. Though he didn’t pitch well in the ALCS and they lost to the eventual World Champion Twins, you would have to say that this trade was a winner for the Tigers as well. The Braves and the Tigers had different goals at the time and both came out winners in this trade. Get to the postseason and take your chances.
I think this trade will be measured in much the same way. If the Cards make it to the postseason, both sides will be winners in the trade. If we don’t, however, the Indians win and the Cards overpaid. Wouldn't it be interesting if the outcome of this trade wasn't determined by how DeRosa plays or how the 2 pitchers pitch for the Indians, but rather by how much Rasmus plays over the last 3 months? Hmmm....
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167 comments
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Comments
With our 56 men for a 40 man boat problem upcoming,
I don’t think it’s totally beyond reasonable to give up a bit more than seems necessary when we can consolidate our talent into fewer people and a few picks that won’t be Rule V eligible. What are we down to now, 50? There are still some 5-10 players who can’t be protected, so between figuring out who shouldn’t be protected and consolidating that minor league talent into major league production, I think the Derosa move should make that a bit easier.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jul 4, 2009 3:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A very good point
Although it should be noted that Todd shouldn’t even have been put on the 40 man roster in the first place. He wouldn’t have had to be protected in December otherwise. The same thing with Mortensen,. So if you’re going to advance them, using up a spot in December, then why not use them?
At least a lot of our minor league prospects are making themselves unattractive to other teams. We should be grateful.
by chessed on Jul 4, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you have any kind of summary
of who is in the pool of guys who have to be protected or potentially discarded? I tend to be generally against rentals, but if this falls into the category of something is better than nothing then I would be more accepting of getting a low return for prospects.
I figure I have about 20-30 more years to be a Cards fan and I want them to win the most they can over the long run. 2006 be damned, I don’t want to make short term decisions just to get into the playoffs. Now if what I regarded as a short-term decision actually makes more long-term sense then that is another thing.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jul 4, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This article
From last February, in “The Cardinal Nation”
http://thecardinalnation.com/2009/02/04/cards-2009-rule5-draft-part2/
is what scared me in the first place. It will all work out in the long run one way or the other, and if we lose someone that ends up an all-star, that’s the breaks. But we shouldn’t complain about any moves the team makes without taking the 40 man roster into consideration.
by chessed on Jul 5, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's quite a few players that the Cardinals can leave unprotected without cause for concern.
Off the top of my head: Scherer, Hawksworth, Hoffpauir, Stavinoha, Robinson
That’s 5 without even looking. The Cardinals will have a few decisions to make but I think the 40 man roster crunch isn’t as bad as it’s made out to be. The team is just going to have to stop holding onto the marginal talents and protect upside guys like Daryl Jones who are still a bit further away.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jul 4, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
please ditch Stavinoah
Watching him play actually makes me depressed
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 5, 2009 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
only thing...
… Raz has recently had a fairly significant medical condition that has kept him out of the lineup.
over than that, i wholeheartedly agree: if he’s healthy, Raz should be playing every day.
by kindred on Jul 4, 2009 3:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Colby's lack of walks is TERRIBLE
I’m sorry, but he’s killing himself by not letting them walk him, practically turning himself into corey patterson with plus defense. I know it’s dumb rookie thinking, and he’ll be better next year or the year after or whatever, maybe, but at best given the approach he’s had so far he’ll have a .315ish OBP if he carries on the way he has been the last 2 months. Over the last 2 months, .277/.297/.503 (.800 OPS). And that .500ish SLF won’t carry.
And yes, I understand that a .800 OPS out of your +10-20 CF is awesome. It really, really, is. But colby needs to be the OBP machine that he showed he could be in the minors. OBP >>> SLG. Accept it, colby, and accept that the only active player with a career BA over .315 is Matt Holliday, and you aren’t Matt Holliday, so you need to take some of the cheap walks instead of making outs to make yourself even more valuable to your friggin’ team.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 4:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
eh, hit post too early
jeter, ichiro, pujols, holiday, helton.
Anyway, Rasmus isn’t one of those guys, yet. So take some frigging walks, before you turn into corey effing patterson.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(he's not nomar, or manny, or magglio, or chipper, or Arod, either)
and that takes us pretty close to .300. With some polancos and juan pierres and young’s and casey’s left aside, as should be. because a .300 OBP is frigging awful.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you walk when the other team is throwing you strikes?
Rasmus has swung at 24.9% of pitches out of the zone. By comparison Duncan who has a good OBP has swung at 24.2%. Its not like he is up there swinging at everything.
Pitches thrown in zone by the pitcher.
Molina: 53.6
Ryan: 52.3%
Rasmus: 51.7%
Schumaker: 51.2%
K Green: 50.4%
Ludwick: 49.4%
Thurston: 48.9%
Duncan: 46.4%
Ankiel: 46.0%
Pujols: 43.2%
Now I guess when you are up there and the other pitcher is throwing strikes you could try to take pitches but that is just going to put you behind in the count. So until the other pitchers stop pouring the strikes in he is doing what he can, hit the strikes.
by DriverZn on Jul 4, 2009 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should have said, duncan draws decent amount of walks.
not has a good obp…
by DriverZn on Jul 4, 2009 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rasmus is also swinging at many more strikes
His Z-Swing mark of 76.0 ranks 8th in the majors this year. That’s not neccesarily a bad thing, and it is probably the reason that he is hitting for good power, but it definitely is not conducive to walking.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cobly is not killing the team
His current OBP is .319, which isn’t great, but it’s only .10 points below average. When you combine that with his current .458 slugging, he has been an above average hitter this year, with a .338 wOBA compared to a .328 league average. There is no evidence that this kind of production, even with a lack of walks, isn’t sustainable. His BABIP is only slightly elevated (.314), but he is also fast and hits an above average ammount of line drives (19.0%), so there is no reason why he shouldn’t keep that up.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not killing the team, no
but he’s not playing anywhere near his potential.
The run value difference between a .319 OBP and a .360 OBP is more than the difference between a .375 and a .450 SLG (and that .319 OBP reflects his month of April, where he did a good job of getting on base; since then, he’s been below .300).
To be as valuable as a .360/.390 (.750 OPS) with a .300 OBP, which is the player he seems to want to be, he’d have to slug close to .500. But that becomes something like a hard ceiling, since he’s not likely to slug much more than that, whereas if he walks occasionally his “value” ceiling could be higher than that.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
if he sees less strikes
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 4, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you know why he is not playing anywhere near his potential?
It might have to do with the fact that he is fucking 22 years old. Are we really that spoiled that we are complaining about a 22 year old, great fielding, center fielder who has also hit like the average 3rd baseman?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Also, I'm disagreeing with you
Rasmus could obviously walk more. His minor league rates suggest that he will, so stop worrying and complaining that he hasn’t lived up to his potential in his first ~250 plate appearances.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*not* disagreeing with you
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colby doesn't value walks
His own words. From the Post:
“I know it’s there (but) I’m just trying to hit the ball hard,” Rasmus said this past weekend. “For me, I want to go up there swinging. For example, if I’m thinking about walking, I get tentative and start taking pitches. I’m not trying to walk. I’m trying to do damage. I’m trying to run around the bases and score on all of those doubles Albert Pujols hits.”
by Youneverknow on Jul 4, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he'd do a lot more running around the bases scoring on doubles
if he walked 10% of the time.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Damage"
Where have I heard that term before as pertaining to the #2 slot? Hmmmmm.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 4, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rasmus friggin kicks ass
4B - beer baseball bands blog
DeRosa>MB
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 4, 2009 4:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BTW awesomely topical title
have 3rd row seats for fogerty tonight at the hollywood bowl, with the LA phil and fireworks etc. CF is one of the greatest songs of all time.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 4:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Observations
I’ve come to the conclusion that Pujols, Ryan, and Rasmus should play everyday that they’re able. I wonder how much Rasmus’s stomach ailments, or whatever the heck was going on, factored into his diminished PT over the past week or so. At any rate, the kid is legitimately as good as advertised. I do have a couple of concerns, though…
One thing that I do see though that worries me is that he’s a strictly pull hitter right now. He’s clearly wiry strong and can still hit outside pitches hard into the pull gap on occasion, but more often than not he either hits a weak pull-side flare or groundball or hits a lazy fly to left. With that said, the kid is just that, a kid, and he’s slugging .453 at the major league level with a horrible first month or so under his belt.
Second, this lack of walks is utterly disturbing. To me this is a much more serious issue than his pull-approach. Based on a quick look at his plate-discipline table on fangraphs, he doesn’t swing at more pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. However he DOES swing at a lot of pitches IN the zone, a whole 10% more in fact. He also makes contact with these pitches at a league average rate. Furthermore, when Colby does swing at out-of-zone pitches, he’s very unlikely to connect (48% to lg. average 62%).
To me, and I may be misinterpreting things, this suggests that he swings at an inordinate amount of pitchers’ strikes, thereby getting himself out (after all, just because it’s a strike doesn’t mean you should swing…this ain’t slow pitch!). Furthermore, when he does chase, which again isn’t more than the average player, he swings and misses a lot, which leads to strikes and strikeouts. With all this in mind, it seems that he gets himself out before a pitcher has a chance to walk him. I’m probably missing something here, but it’s still interesting to think about and I guess it’s the best I can come with as far as explaining why a guy who takes an average amount of O-swings doesn’t ever walk.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 4:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I do wonder how much of is is trying to do what he is told.
He is told “Be aggressive in the zone” and that is exactly what he is doing based on the numbers. Combine that with getting an above average number of pitches in the zone and you won’t have many walks.
by DriverZn on Jul 4, 2009 4:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got something about that I'm working on right now.
Should have it posted sometime this afternoon or early Sunday.
You can't teach a hammer to love nails.
by the red baron on Jul 4, 2009 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A regression analysis of what consitutes a walk?
I would be interested in that.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is told "Be aggressive in the zone" and that is exactly what he is doing based on the numbers.
I think that has a lot to do with it and that sort of troubles me. This is a bad thing to teach, and it really bothered me that LaRussa came out and said this in regards to the whole team right when they were in the middle of a fine stretch of hitting. Just because a pitch is in the strike zone does not mean it should be swung at. An 0-0 FB on the low outside corner is a take pitch, for example. Hopefully this is a skill Colby can hone and not lose entirely based on this “swing at every strike” idea. We’re talking about a guy with high ISO-patience numbers all throughout the minors, and all of a sudden this guy who profiled as a Grady Sizemore-type (high OBP, plus power and glove) is playing like, well, not like that. I’m not pissed about the results, but it worries me in the long run.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Colby took BB in April
April
19 games 59 BA 9 BB .259 AVG .357 OBP .305 SLG
May
26 games 85 BA 3 BB .212 AVG .256 OBP .447 SLG
I agree that he is doing what he has been told to do.
by spfldbird on Jul 4, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one more reason
to add to the list of many that indicated TLR should ride off into the sunset, or cincinnati, or any damn place else.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jul 4, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is right
and, considering his SLG of late, it’s difficult to argue with. However, it seems to be a short-term answer when plate discipline and the ability to walk is a skill developed over the long-term so I’m not so concerned about its impact this year but I am concerned about the impact over the next several years. I’ve argued before that LaRussa is a short-term manager b/c he has short-term goals that aren’t necessarily conducive to maintaining a strong organization over the long-term. He won’t be here in 5 years so he’s less concerned about Rasmus’s long-term development than he is what Rasmus can provide for his team this year.
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let's hope Tony isn't here in 5 years!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he'll be here
until he passes John McGraw, at least.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jul 4, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ypu bite your tongue!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope he is
that means we have won another WS between now and then.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty much agree
Colby has been swinging at almost anything in the zone, whether he can drive it or not. And he’s done borderline-acceptable with that approach, so far, and his baseline talent allows him to put a lot of “pitcher’s pitches” into play that other would miss or foul off. causing him to make lots of outs, and get a few hits.
but he hasn’t been anywhere near what he can be. Colby SHOULD BE should be something special, and he won’t be able to BE something special until he gets better at picking the pitches he swings at.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.313 OBP is an out machine
Now, he’s a great fielder and is a talented guy in terms of hitting the ball hard…so he’ll have a fair share of hits and drive the ball well and will always be a positive contributor in terms of total value. But I look at this kid as being the Cardinals answer to Grady Sizemore.
This offseason Eric Wedge, who seems a better manager (from the way-outside FTR) than the results have shown, was asked if he was troubled by Sizemore’s declining BA. His answer was a diplomatic version of “Who gives a shit?” Fact is that Sizemore gets fewer hits than some, but when he does hit the ball he pisses on it, generally. On top of that, he’s on base all of the time allowing him to use his great speed and baserunning ability.
It seems that Rasmus has been told that he’s only useful getting hits, and therefore should swing at strikes because, OMG…YOU MAY NOT SEE ANOTHER ONE!!! and OMG YOU MAY NOT GET A HIT!!! Personally, I don’t care…yeah a hit is more valuable than a walk, but a walk is pretty damn good too. It comes down to NOT recording outs, and for all the damage Rasmus has done he’s still getting out at a high rate. Like I said earlier, he’ll always be valuable and you can only figure he’ll be a more powerful hitter as he matures a bit, but to be truly elite he’s got to learn to shrink his hitting zone in hitter’s counts and be more patient in that regard. Hell, the way I look at it that should make him hit better too!
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 4:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wedge on Sizemore's BA
Sizemore has had a disappointing season, but the dude is pretty awesome. If you follow the link to the original article, the author seems to be a BA fan. Dweeb. He should go to his mom’s basement or something!
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 4:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
we’re looking at a guy here, and trying to explain why a 3.5 WAR player should be a 6 WAR player. he won’t be a failure at 3.5 WAR, but golly, wouldn’t it be nice to have a 6 WAR guy in CF?
Brendan Ryan will be doing the best he can to have a .770 OPS. And that is AWESOME, for B-R. But Colby should never be that bad.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 4:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you play for TLR and you are a rookie.
You do what you are told or you sit on the bench. The problem isn’t Colby, its the orders he is following.
by DriverZn on Jul 4, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colby's current WAR is 2.2 in 258 plate appearances
Prorate that to a full season, and he is playing like a 5 WAR player.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
to do that
he’d have to be something like +30 with the glove. That’s almost twice as good as ANYONE in mlb was, last year, in CF.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 4, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You'd also have to factor in improved walk totals
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
At the rate he’s going, he’ll be a 3.5ish win player. if he starts taking walks, he’ll be a 5ish win player. not sure what you mean by “factor in the improved walk totals”.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jul 6, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you regress his current defense to what you think it should be
Than you also have to regress his walk totals.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 6, 2009 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
walking is a skill, not luck
excluding IBB’s and HBP’s, of course. And assuming Angel hernandez isn;t behind home plate.
Anyway, Colby has the potential to HAVE plenty of that skill, based on his minor league performance, but from his stated quotes, he’s not interested in developing that skill. That should be scary to anyone remotely sabermetrically inclined, regardless of what his splits over 35 games look like.
he’s walked a couple of times since this conversation started, so hopefully…
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
by SleepyCA on Jul 9, 2009 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rasmus and strikeouts
The Rasmus walk situation does not bother me for now because
he is seeing pitches to hit and is doing a pretty good job of getting wood on a
viable portion of them.
What does bother me though, are hitters and especially in key situations
who get ahead of pitchers in the count and just refuse to take a walk by swinging at pitches
out of the zone. (ex. Tyler Greene’s 9th inning bat last night). For a time in the bottom of the nineth
it looked like we would need that extra run.
The Red’s pitcher was definitely having trouble throwing strikes, got behind 2 and 0 and Greene goes
after ball three high and outside. Several other pitches were balls before Greene ended up striking
out looking bad with bases loaded. To me that is in excuseable.
Also though Duncan does draw a fair amount of walks, he looks at strike 3 down the middle to much for me.
by ridgesee on Jul 4, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe the Hoff can take him aside and say
I see your walk-off and raise you my awesome history-making debut.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 4, 2009 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colby is the least of their problems.....
Colby is doing extremely well and sure he needs to get a few walks but that is the least of their problems. Colby is the second best offensive threat on this team and I don’t hear anyone complaining when the #1 guy doesn’t get walks.
Look his walks will come but what this team needs is for someone to hit the ball and right now that is Albert, Schumaker, Molina, Rasmus, and Ryan. Everyone else has done so poorly that they do not even deserve to be on the field. This new theory of “this team will not win ONLY if the Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick hit” is hogwash. The Cards have some better internal options and they need to bench those who are not producing and make some moves – internal and external. Houffpauir is a good example – little guy who is overachieving but he is achieving. I would much rather see him in the line-up making contact than Duncan, Ankiel or Ludwick. WHIFFIING ALL THE TIME. When is enough – enough? Put some butts on the bench and play some more of the kids.
by Warcard on Jul 4, 2009 8:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well put
You said what most fans are thinking. TLR’s benching one of the only guys hitting on the team for other lefties who are ice-cold AND can’t field. There’s no justifiable reason for keeping him out of the lineup , no matter what his “magic baseball computer” spits out.
As for Rasmus’ “medical condition”—it’s easily-controllable heartburn. Anything more serious, and he’d be on the DL.
(Unless they’re lying about the diagnosis and Rasmus actually has an ulcer).
by olddomination on Jul 4, 2009 8:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pujols: part-time hitting coach
Pujols, in the on-deck circle, summoned Hoffpauir before the latter faced off against lefthander Daniel Ray Herrera.
“He told me to relax, get a pitch to hit and punch it the other way,” said the 26-year-old Hoffpauir. “Albert said (Herrera’s) changeup was his best pitch.”
[…] The pitch to Hoffpauir was a changeup, just as Pujols had said. “That’s why he’s so good. That’s why he’s Albert,” Hoffpauir said.
There was no question that Hoffpauir was nervous in his debut. “I think my knees were touching each other, I was shaking so hard,” he said.
link
Part of me thinks: Albert Pujols is ridiculous.
Another part thinks: Don’t they pay people to do this? This coaching batters thing?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 4, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Amazing
Thanks for posting that.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Hal McRae and Albert Pujols walked up to me.
“I looked at Hal and said ‘uh, who are you?’”
by sdrone on Jul 4, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The hitting coach probably did say something
But when Pujols says it you listen a little closer I’d imagine.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jul 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How awesome would it be to play with Pujols?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously Pujols is an incredibly physically gifted player
But It’s been well documented that his greatest asset may be his “Baseball IQ” which is off the charts. Case in point, he is leading the team in stolen bases, and may be one of the slowest runners on the team. He just KNOWS certain things. He’s deductive reasoning and intuition allow him to play the game like it’s MLB2K9 in “easy” mode where you predict a fastball is coming and the screen lights up the area the ball is coming.
To be around a mind like that makes everybody on the team at least 75% better. Which begs the question, how terrible is Thurston really if he’s playing this bad and has the greatest baseball minds in the game to feed him information?
by cloistermaximus on Jul 4, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, also....
the people in front of him are never sent because they are on base in front of Albert Pujols. So they are not gonna rack up steals.
by sdrone on Jul 4, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Raz isn't healthy.....
That is why he missed a couple of days.
2 of those 3 missed starts, he was getting diagnosed/treated.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And still getting 2 PA's
he wasn’t that hurt.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you talking about the game last night?
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad
he had three PA’s when he was “too hurt to start” on 6/30.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Raz did just fine with BBs in the minors.
That says he gets the idea and has satisfactory strike-zone judgment. Those things aren’t lost by a promotion to the bigs.
Patience. The lack of walks WILL sort itself out. And what will remain is a 22YO who is demonstrating clearly that he can blast the best stuff they throw him.
by StanTheManFan on Jul 4, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And if we don't get somebody hitting behind AP.....
He may not see a pitch to hit in the 2nd half.
Seriously. If I were Dusty Baker yesterday, I may have walked AP with the bases loaded yesterday. I’d rather be up 3-1 with the bases juiced and AP out of the way, than up 3-0 with them loaded, and AP hitting. As good as Albert has been prior to this season, he has to be in the middle of one of those magical seasons that we’ll all look back on several years from now as possibly one of the best seasons ever.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have to think that he might have had his last official AB with the bases loaded for awhile
Unless a walk in that situation is a walk-off, or a 9th inning AB, they have to be crazy yo keep pitching to him!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crazy like a fox.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
The chance of Pujols getting an extra base hit is far less than even a league average hitter getting at least a single. Meaning that when you walk Pujols, we will score more runs.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sometimes you just have to say screw the book
APu has not read the book!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the book says no there...
but I can think of only one time all year when an IBB burned a team other than us.
by stlfan on Jul 4, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not even "the book"
It’s just basic logic. For his career Pujols hits a homer every 14 at bats or so, which is like “holy shit” amazing. Still, an average hitter gets a hit every 4 at bats or so, meaning there is no way that it is mathematically smart to walk Pujols.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK. What I meant by "the book"
was “stats be damned.” As the other manager, I’d rather be right and the stats have led every other manager to the wrong conclusion this year because Albert has destroyed with men on and everyone after him (read Ludwick in the 4 hole last night and Ankiel in the 5 hole last night) have not.
by stlfan on Jul 4, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "right" conclusion is not dictated by the results
A results based manager would get fired after his third game.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that
and it makes sense, but man…I am starting to wonder when the opposing managers are going to start not trusting the math.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trusting the math = more wins
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, I agree with ya
but I don’t understand the logic behind a lot of managers’ decision. I am just surprised mos haven’t went there.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
walk him there
and they would have won the game.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you figure that?
Ludwick could just as well have singled or doubled with the bases loaded.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And my argument has always been.....
That the “book”, or AP’s career stats are just that, an average of what he has done over 9+ years, against all kinds of pitchers, going through slumps, etc.
It also assumes the guy hitting behind Pujols is a legit threat, on that day, to get a hit once every 3 or 4 AB’s. I don’t think that is the case.
But back to AP. Answer me this…..what is his HR rater per AB in seasons where he is tearing the cover off the ball, during a strech of games where he is hitting well, with the bases loaded, against a certain pitcher, or type of pitcher? You really going to tell me AP only had a 1 in 14 chance of hitting a GS off of Weathers yesterday? And he didn’t need a HR to make it a bad decision to pitch to him. A double probably does the same thing.
You don’t let the best hitter of our generation beat you, ESPECIALLY when we are running out the garbage behind AP that we currently are.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay
Let’s look at Pujols’ numbers over the past 14 days: 42 AB, 7 homers, 1.627 OPS. Can we confidentally say that this has been the hottest 2 week stretch Pujols has ever had? Even in this stretch, he is hitting a homer every 6 at bats. Now let’s look at Ludwick’s numbers over the past 14 days: 42 AB, 9 hits, 1 homer, .214 batting average. That means that Ludwick has had a hit every 4.6 at bats.
Even if you are taking the past 2 weeks as a proper estimate of what each player will do in his next at bat (which is completely wrong, but I’ll roll with it), it still makes sense to pitch to Pujols.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Faulty argument.....
If you are arguing based only on AP hitting a HR, then you have to account for 4 runs in the scenario where you walk him. Meaning, you walk AP (one run scores), then the next guy has to either double (to score 3), or two guys have to single. That make sense?
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, here is the full numbers analysis
Using Pujols average this season, he hits a homer every 8.8 at bats, or 11% of the time. A home run in that situation = 4 runs, so lets make it simple and multiply the frequency by the run output. That equals .44 runs.
Doing the same for every thing that Pujols could have in that situation (double, triple, single), I got a total of 1.42 expected runs in that situation for Pujols.
Doing the same for Ludwick, I got a total of .6 expected runs. If you add the 1 run that we would already have because of the Pujols walk to that total, you get 1.6 expected runs.
Of course this isn’t perfect because it doesn’t consider the value of an out, which tilts it even more into Ludwick’s favor.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Being "hot"
in the past is not predictive about how he’ll perform in the future. Take what Pujols has done over 9 seasons and what the following batter has done over his time in the majors and, as long as Ludwick is major league average or better, it makes sense to pitch to Pujols. That he has 4 homers this year w/ the bases loaded is too small a sample to suggest that he’s likely to hit one in his next PA w/ the bases loaded.
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I disagree.....
That being hot isn’t something to factor. If you take two players that have hit .300 in their 10 year careers, and one of them is hitting .500 over the last week, while the other is hitting .150 over that stretch, are you really trying to convince me that each player has a 30% chance of getting a hit in their next AB, all things equal? I don’t believe that. When you are in a zone, when you are seeing the ball well, and you are confident and comfortable, you have a better chance than if you are not.
Think about it this way…..a guy’s average is just that, his average. That includes the weeks where he is on fire and hitting .400, and the weeks where he isn’t hitting well, and hits around .200. So if you can pinpoint when a guy is in a stretch of games where he is hitting .400, why would you not treat him as such?
I will agree that it might be difficult to determine when a guy is in such a streak, and when he is coming out of such a streak, but that is a different argument.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you take two players that have hit .300 in their 10 year careers, and one of them is hitting .500 over the last week, while the other is hitting .150 over that stretch, are you really trying to convince me that each player has a 30% chance of getting a hit in their next AB, all things equal?
Read this.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and both of those hitters
hit ground balls. following the HR.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ludwick and Ankiel
followed Pujol’s grandslam with ground ball outs.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Events aren't isolated or seperate
There is no fucking way of knowing what Ankiel or Ludwick would have done if Pujols was walked.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a non-sequitur to the point some of us make....
Though I’m not exactly sure if it’s the point Sooner is making, the point I (usually) make in response to these issues is partially addressed by this statement in your cited research:
There’s a debate about whether hot streaks are random fluctuation of events or an actual change in skills for a temporary period of time. I don’t even begin to know the answer to that question, and I can see the validity of both arguments. But that’s not what this post is about.
So, to me, the real issue is whether a good manager – using experience, inside knowledge, and gut instincts (which is just a euphemism for heuristics) can more often than choose an optimal solution for a particular event (e.g., a single plate appearance), even when the “stats” suggest it’s not the “right” one. This is especially interesting because the population of data that comprises the simplistic stats is not constant (all the variations “cancel out”) but the next PA is a singular event with its own set of especially relevant conditions.
In any event, it is way, way too simplistic to say that the only, best way to predict the outcome of the next PA is to look at a guy’s entire, past career rather than a preceding, time-limited series of plate appearances. That’s nothing more than another heuristic.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 4, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your giving managers too much credit
I doubt that they are much better at prediction whether or not players will do well or poorly, than a Bayesian style projection system incorporating all information. I would garauntee you that if you asked each manager to predict the next game for each player on his team, the computer would do better.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree all you want
research has been done and has shown that streakiness or slumpiness isn’t at all predictive. Go w/ what you know over hundreds of PAs and not what you know over 20 or 30. Those 20 or 30 just aren’t predictive…period.
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but this is what we pay managres for
to recognize this. Otherwise we could just write a quick program make these decisions and fire all the managers.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could, and in most instances they would do better than the Managers
but this is what we pay managres for to recognize this.
How am I supposed to disprove that? Chuck?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The article linked above.....
Doesn’t say that. It says the predicativeness is slight, but it still acknowledges it.
As for my scenario though, that article doesn’t address it. It took the streaks of every kind of player, and compares it to an average player. I’d argue that right now, Ankiel/Luddy aren’t average. I’d also venture to say that Pujols might transend that study.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it says the predicativeness is slight, but it still acknowledges it.
.004 points of wOBA is insignificant.
As for my scenario though, that article doesn’t address it. It took the streaks of every kind of player, and compares it to an average player.
No it doesn’t. It takes the top 5% of hot streaks in major league baseball. That list is mostly comprised of guys like Pujols, A-Rod, Vlad. The aggregate wOBA of the hitters in the study was .365, which is well above average.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would appreciate a link to the research
I’ve always thought that it was wrong to treat PAs as independent samples. I am pretty sure the errors are auto-correlated which means that they should be treated as time series instead. But I have an open mind, and I am willing to look at the research.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Jul 4, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops, you already did
Sorry, I didn’t read carefully. You were referring to Tango et. al. and their study using 2000-2003 data (“the Book”) via Baker’s blog entry. Something just does not sound right with the results of their study.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Jul 4, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll have to actually show counter data.
For now, just consider me wrong until I am able to show that performance data is better modeled as a time series.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Jul 4, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you mean by "as a time series"
Isn’t that what Tango did?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
My understanding is this. Their prediction is based on long term averages assuming each sample is independent. The fact that they acknowledge that streaks exist is some evidence that we are dealing with a time series and some sort of ARIMA model should be used instead. I am sorry that I am not doing a very good job explaining what I am trying to say. Once I have the time, I will try to do a mini-replication of their Chapter 2 experiment with more recent data.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Jul 4, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But less frequently?
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 4, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Logically Correct but
While watching the AB I knew that something great was happening soon.
Book says no correctly but I believe the numbers didn’t see the look in APs eyes.
I believe he fouled off a few ball 4 pitches purposely just to stay in the box.
He is very special.
by courtsteve on Jul 4, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you admit that you are throwing logic out the window?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jul 4, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walking Albert
I didn’t see the game, but when I saw how late that grand slam came in the game and it’s eventual outcome, my very first thought was: “why didn’t they walk him?”
I’d have to agree, until everyone else starts hitting better.
by stlfan on Jul 4, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I’m not saying I’d walk AP in that situation if Luddy was hitting like he was last year. But he isn’t.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yessir.
A major league scout from another team observed the other day that “(Albert) Pujols should be promoted. He’s too good for this league.”
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
That's great.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jul 4, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just ready for Hoffpauir's first HR
Then I can say “Dong jacked Hoff!”
Happy 4th!
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 4, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I don't know whether to rec or flag
but since it is a holiday, let’s just laugh!
Indeed, Happy 4th! (damn the rain here though!)
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Per Leach
1. Schumaker 2B
2. Rasmus CF
3. Pujols 1B
4. Duncan LF
5. Ankiel RF
6. Molina C
7. Thurston 3B
8. Thompson P
9. Ryan SS
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eh, not bad
I still don’t know why Duncan is still in the majors.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Replace Dunc/Ank w/ Ludwick
and I’m happy.
Can’t wait for DeRosa to be halthy and take over @ 3rd, though.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa needs to hurry back so I can quit complaining about Thursty
and yes Tony, DeRosa needs to be the everyday 3B!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one of my biggest complaints with this team
is that we historically don’t rush players with injuries back quick enough….
/sarcasm
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 5, 2009 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not like we have several
ready-made replacements. Look at Ludwick’s numbers since May 29.
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather have Robinson
At least he can play defense pretty well. And don’t tell me there aren’t other guys available. The Mariners just got Ryan Langerhans for Mike f. Morse.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't
at least the 3 we have offer the possibility of an extra base hit. Robinson to me is like So Taguchi, and I liked So but I wouldn’t want to run him out there every day.
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duncan doesn't look like he can hit extra base hits either
Since his intial injury, in the middle of 2007, he’s hitting like a AAA middle infielder.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't it seem like
Thurston gets a start every time he makes a costly error, which is pretty often
by riotmute on Jul 4, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we have an amazingily
lack of depth at 3rd base.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is amazing
of course, Allen Craig’s never been given a chance. That said, w/ Skip and Ryan playing every day, is there a reason Thurston hasn’t been demoted? He’s not a backup SS. Craig’s gotta be able to offer at least as much at 3rd as Thurston — offensively and defensively — and has power. Or play Tyler Greene.
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thurston isn't a bad hitter
And given his defense at second, there is no reason why he shouldn’t eventually be a good defender at third.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is a joke right?
he is an awful hitter correct
gonna need more franklins to get through this one.
by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm being serious
He’s below average to be sure, but he’s not nearly as bad as people on this board make him out to be.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do you back this up?
Thursty has been terrible with the stick for 2 months?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't really use his last 2 months as a representation of his true ability
Everyone has peaks and valleys, and only taking the valleys is unfair. His overall season line is a .299 wOBA, which is awfu, but it also comes with a .263 BABIP despite a very good 23.1% LD rate. His prOPS, which attempts to guess what he would be hitting with better luck, has him at a .736 mark with a .362 OBP. That makes him an above average hitter.
Of course, Thurston historically sucks, but even his preseason projections were for about a .320 wOBA. If you combine the two, he looks like a league average hitter going forward, maybe a little worse.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is why I like asking these kind of questions
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 5, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
But even if so, we don’t have a better option currently.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 4, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why can't Tyler Greene
play some third base? He looks pretty decent there and Thurston looks awful.
gonna need more franklins to get through this one.
by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
T. Greene's bat has been horirable
worse than Thurston’s this year. IF you can believe that.
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but if everyone's bat is gonna suck, put the best glove there
I don’t care if it is Greene, Barden, Freese , or Red. But really, are Freese and Barden hurt? It makes no sense to not give one of them another chance considering how hard Thursty has been struggling for the past 2 months. If anyone can give me a logical reason why this hasn’t happened, I will be grateful.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know his bat has been awful
but it is a much smaller sample size. I think we can see that Thurston isn’t “breaking out of this slump” because he isn’t in a slump. He is just plan bad.
I am not saying Greene is the answer, in fact I know he isn’t the long term answer. But, at this point, I would much rather yell at Greene through the T.V. than Thurston. My wife said I was yelling at Thurston in my sleep last night.
gonna need more franklins to get through this one.
by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld says T Greene in for Ryan because he had some stomach problems
Is this a team-wide problem?
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 4, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TLR
just read the site and went to put T. Greene over Thurston, but by the time he got back to the lineup card he MISREMEMBERED and put him in for Ryan
gonna need more franklins to get through this one.
by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 4, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a stomach problem
I am tired of stomaching this teams O. Can I be part of the team?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chuck
I thought the two PA’s by Hoffpauir were exactly what this team lacks, someone to fill a role.
I like that. I start him today and put Shu in left, Colby in center and the riff raff in RH. More stomach problems? Fire the clubbie.
by OperaCard on Jul 4, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hoff might stick on the Major League club for a while
apparently he kills lefties
by Evilfrog on Jul 4, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You know EF
This is an interesting line-up by Tony. It really shows what is going on for him. He has to play Colby or be lynched. He has a chance to reward a kid for good baseball savvy by starting him, moving Shu and letting the slumper’s slumber. But he doesn’t, because it might just produce 10 runs and he loses control. People clamoring for change see the obvious. But he doesn’t respond. This to me is the true indication of his intentions. He can’t win the division let alone playoff games without help. He knows this. He won’t get help unless he can move Ankiel or Ludwick before the 31st. He is playing for success in the larger picture. I hope!!
by OperaCard on Jul 4, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I second that.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jul 4, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its difficult to see maybe Viva
You need to shake things up. You have a kid in his debut, take to perfect situational at bats. That might be worth exploring. But you don’t.
by OperaCard on Jul 4, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not disagreeing with you (I think)
I just don’t know what you are trying to say.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why isnt't this blueish yellow?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 4, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colby on the bases
With only the 7th most baserunning opportunities on the team (OPPS), such as opportunities to advance on balls in play or steal bases etc., Colby’s EQPBR, or runs earned on the base paths above the average, is 1.997, which is best on the team.
In 2006 Colby stole 28 bags in 36 attempts, (77.7%) almost Jacoby #‘s, granted against weaker catcher’s arms and slower pitcher’s deliveries.
So, Colby is obviously fast, but he is a great baserunner too. This is one large reason why his lack of walks and therefore OBP practically equalling his average is a concern.
Tony should consider batting Colby in front of Yadi until he starts walking more in front of Pujols, then again maybe the two hole will only ever see strikes due to fear of Pujols. By batting in front of Yadi he can show off his speed and steal more bases (Larussa probably is hesitent to send runnners batting in front of Pujols), or run on hit and runs. Yadi after all rarely swings and misses.
Batting order doesn’t really matter though according to Bill James. But I would like to see Colby attempt to steal more often.
by voigtzr on Jul 4, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just noticed
the cubs had Rich Harden intentionally walk Fielder to load the bases with 1 out and the Brewers have gone on to score 5 runs here in the 1st. As Sleepy would say, that IBB was a “bad idea”.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 4, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
cardsfanatic
We need some addition by subtraction. These guys need to go ASAP; Chris Duncan, Brad Thompson, Rick Ankeil, and Most urgently, Joe Thurston, These folks are pathetically WEAK offensively even if Rick, has defensive pluses.
Please FO humour us with these subtractions immediately .
by cardsfanatic on Jul 4, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OT: Steve McNair was found shot to death
Holy hell. He was only 36 too. What a tragedy.
On a related note, I love how in the wake of Sean Taylor’s death people in the media got a lot of material off of the whole “NFL players are scared!” angle. Then when Plaxico Burress shoots himself he’s an idiot for carrying a gun. I think that’s a bit contradictory.
Note-Now, Plaxico Burress didn’t seem to think that whole situation out so well, but if NFL players ARE targets like that, is it really a bad idea to tote a gun?
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 4, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's a bad idea to flaunt your money and bling
in front of people who might want to kill you. And a lot of these guys continue to hang out with bad people.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 4, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your assessment of The Chris Perez Trade
Chuck, this is dead on and thank you for articulating it so perfectly.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 4, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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