Is the playoff ticket already in hand?

by jomfa on Jul 30, 2009 1:12 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

With the offensive additions lately, it's easy to think the Cardinals are a shoe-in for the playoffs, but as Lee Corso would say, "not so fast"...

The Cardinals have 58 games remaining. This season, starting pitching has decided 71% of the games they've played. Before looking at the record the bullpen has had for the games they've decided, let's stick with the starters. Assuming each of (Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro and Lohse) account for 9 starting decisions each the rest of the way and the #5 pitcher accounts for 6 - gauging by the current win percentage for each, the team would yield 25 wins by the end of the season. Okay, now the bullpen - the bullpen has won 50% of the games decided by them which leaves 16 games or 8 wins. The overall, season-long win total for the team would be 89... enough to win the division? Make the playoffs? Okay, so the offense has improved and maybe Wainwright , Pineiro and Lohse are really worth an extra win - plus, the bullpen gets 2 more wins and has a 66% win percentage instead of 1/2. The win total goes up to 94... which looks a lot better when considering what it takes to win the division and/or make the playoffs, but we're still talking about the team carrying a 66% win percentage the rest of the season which can be a tall order for any team down the stretch. I think things look good for the Cardinals the rest of the way, but we haven't automatically printed our ticket to the post-season.

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Judging pitchers/teams by pitcher W/L record is useless.

it is an outdated stat and basically meaningless.

We’re probably about a 90-win team now. It would take something pretty special to win 94, I’m not sure we’re that good even if we get a bit lucky.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Judging the team by pitcher W/L is less meaningless than judging individual pitchers

Since the main problem with pitcher w/l is the fact that it ignores run support, which is something the pitcher can’t control, but something that the team CAN control.

That said, just projecting the current teams’ Pythagorean gives you 88 team wins for the season. So, as a first approximation, projecting pitcher W/L over the course of the season works (for this team, at least) roughly as well as Pythagorean.

But then again, one would expect Lugo/DeRosa/Holliday and whatever we get out of Glaus (probably jut a PH to replace Stavinoha) to cause the second half to outperform the first half.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 30, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to mention...

… that Carp and Lohse missed a lot of starts in the first half, and we’ll be able to skip the 5th spot in the rotation for much of the next month and a half. so ceteris paribus we should get better aggregate starting pitching in the 2nd half than we got in the first half even if Piniero regresses some. the subtraction of Thompson/5th spot and addition of Carp/Lohse could easily be worth a few wins on its own.

and if the starters pitch better, then that could mean a lighter load for the bullpen, which might make them more effective as well. i’m not counting on that, but it could happen.

by kindred on Jul 31, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm more confident than I've been in a LONG time.

You’d have to go back to the 2004 season as a comparison of how good I feel about this team. But we are are neck and neck with another good team. It’s going to be a fun summer that’s for sure!

THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!

by stltrav09 on Jul 30, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

89-73 - My Predicted Record of NL Central Winner

Cardinals 33-25
Cubs 36-27
Astros 38-23
Brewers 39-22

Those are the records each team would have to post for the rest of the season to get to 89-73. Every team in the division has to have a better winning percentage from here on out than they have had to this point to get to 89 wins. It’s going to be an exciting race and don’t dismiss the possibility of the second place in the central of winning the wild card. I know it doesn’t look likely now, but if a couple of NL Central teams get really hot and get above the 90-win mark, the wild card might not come from the West. I’ll stick with 89 for now as the number of wins for the winner and only team from the Central making the playoffs.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jul 30, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wild Card

Team W L PCT GB E# L10
San Fran 55 46 .545 - - 5-5
Chi Cubs 53 46 .535 1.0 62 7-3
Colorado 54 47 .535 1.0 61 5-5
Florida 53 48 .525 2.0 60 7-3
Atlanta 51 50 .505 4.0 58 6-4
Houston 51 50 .505 4.0 58 5-5
Milwaukee 51 51 .500 4.5 57 3-7

Sorry the formatting is bad – here’s the link to the Wild Card standings

Once the Cubs finish this thrashing of the Astros, the Cubs will be tied for first and the Cubs/Cards would be .5 games back from the Giants for the Wild Card. The Cards and the Cubs are both playing hot and the Giants and Rockies are not. The Cubs are finally living up to to pre-season expectations and the Cards have Holliday and DeRosa joining a team that is rolling. It’s likely that Houston and Milwaukee are done, but how is it unlikely that the Wild Card will come from the Central?

by IllinoisCubs on Jul 30, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i had 87 at the start of the year

but 89 sounds good too. It’ll be around that number. I thought then 90 wins would be enough, I still do now…

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 30, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're about 50/50

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Jul 30, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

surprised it's not gone up now the crew are falling away....

we’re right in the WC hunt too…

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 30, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most playoff projections absolutely hated the crew and the stros,

so their wasn’t much to gain from them and we had to split it with the cubs.

15=/=25

by hazel on Jul 30, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah pretty much

Although a lot of my projection is PECOTA, and they liked the Brewers OK. However, their record and their performance thus far kinda sucks.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Jul 30, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Open Dates and the Cubs

The Cards have five more open dates than the Cubs down the stretch. As of last night, the Cubs have to go 3-2 to catch the Cards. Here are the Cubs opponents for those dates

Mon, 8/3 at Reds
Thu, 8/13 Phillies
Mon, 8/31 Astros
Thu, 9/17 Brewers
Thu, 9/24 at Giants

by ubeddie on Jul 30, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Please delete, Mods.

Do not tempt the GOB.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jul 30, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I say we go to the Cubs site

and post fanposts about how sure we are they are going to make the playoffs in a reverse jinx attempt.

by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jul 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when we lose horribly and our best players are all injured

I will blame This Post.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Jul 31, 2009 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think so

The Cubs and Cardinals are playing much better than the Giants and the Rockies. I think the Cubs/Cardinals will be the Central Division Champs and Wild Card winner. I don’t think the Central Division will be decided until the last week of the season but I think it will be clear that the Cubs and Cardinals will be going to the playoffs before that, possibly even early September.

by IllinoisCubs on Jul 30, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The title of this post makes me want to kick a puppy

why would you tempt the GOB with this?

by dcfcblues on Jul 31, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't get ahead of yourself

All us Cards fans are hopeful, but I wouldn’t mess with the baseball gods.

Nelly > Dunc

by zoomzoomj88 on Aug 1, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

God please

After a couple of years of the Cubs winning all the time their fans are acting like yankee fans I just want to see St louis return to the top like they normally do

take it easy
why care about a bloggers grammar
no matter how much you hate me you still read and comment me

by angryandy on Aug 2, 2009 6:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs