I Love Seeing Ludwick in Red

by dbish on Jul 27, 2009 10:21 PM EDT

I have a history of speaking early, but it's never really stopped me. Watching Ludwick's two great catches in the 4th, I'm more than happy he wasn't involved in the Holliday trade. Living in New York, I can't keep up with the day-to-day of the Cards' farm system, but I think even if I knew all the intricacies of what we have back in the storeroom, I'd still prefer what we have on the floor in Ludwick.

From the comments I've read, many Busch frequenters were disappointed to give up Wallace--and maybe those disappointments are warranted--but I'm convinced keeping Ludwick was the right move. He embodies the kind of player we want in St. Louis: he works hard, he's good with the bat, his arm (as evidenced in the 8th) isn't something I'd like to come across in a dark alley, he's not afraid to make SportsCenter-esque catches (and he more often than not makes them), and most importantly, you can see on his face the ever-present determination to do his job.

I think, in the age of Sabermetrics (that's the only thing this age of baseball is known for, right?), it's just as important to look into a player's face as it is to look at his numbers. And it's all in his face. You see the pride, you see the willingness to win, you see the competition, you see the disappointment when he hasn't performed, you see the guy who only wants to play baseball. You see the dominant player who's career was hampered by injury, then resurfaced only to be traded, then finally was given room to grow, then was discussed in more talks of trade. I'm not under the impression that last season was a fluke or a one-time accomplishment; I think it shows what kind of player he is--not what he can be. And now, as the fear of being dealt yet again is lifted, I believe we'll see the guy who knows he's here to stay--the guy who can focus on baseball, and baseball only, for the coming months.

If it were up to me Ryan (I'll assume we're on a first name basis), I'd say go ahead and buy a home in the area if you haven't already. You're the guy we want in right field. You're the guy we want hitting in tandem with Pujols, and for the time being, Holliday. We've seen who you are and we're thankful all those American League teams were so impatient with you. If I were 8 years old and still living in Fenton, yours would be the poster I'd want next to Albert's. Hell, I'm 25 and will probably still check e-bay after I submit this post.

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Just to be clear

People would be much more pissed around here if we gave up Luddy for Holliday.

F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Jul 27, 2009 10:41 PM EDT reply actions

I'd be livid

but that would be emotional, not calculated.

Actually, and this is surprising to me, messing around with sky kalkman’s trade value calculator from BTBS, they seem about equal, assuming Wallace is really a “$25M prospect” and assuming Luddy is a 4, 4, and 3.5 WAR player over the rest of his time here (assuming he makes $3.7, $7.0, and $11.0 and they don’t offer arb after ’11).

Lots and lots of assumptions, of course. And it would also be much less of a gain for this team, this year, depending on how many WARs rick ankiel puts up in RF after the trade.

the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog

by SleepyCA on Jul 28, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

According to those numbers, Ludwick's surplus value is over $35M- at least $10M more than Wallace.

Plus draft picks, plus playoff probability for this season. Not sure how you got him as equal to Wallace.

15=/=25

by hazel on Jul 28, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

no draft picks, ie "they don’t offer arb after ’11"

and pro-rate the value for the rest of this season, works out to 24.4M.

the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog

by SleepyCA on Jul 28, 2009 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions

eh, 22M

assuming the right ratio is ($3.7M*(1-102/162) = $2.3M) on this year’s remaining salary and value is 4 WAR*(1-102/162).

the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog

by SleepyCA on Jul 28, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions

spreadsheet link here

link

the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog

by SleepyCA on Jul 28, 2009 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions

And we would lose playoff odds by trading ludwck this year

F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Jul 28, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, good catch, that wasn't in Sky's spreadsheet

I didn’t include that, but did speak to it. So much would depend on Ankiel’s performance, which is a wild card.

the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog

by SleepyCA on Jul 28, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

If their trade value is equal

then it would be tremendously more stupid to trade Ludwick, considering that the Holliday trade is a ‘win now’ trade any way you slice it.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 28, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think anyone is saying we should have swapped Wallace out for Ludwick.

It’s more a combination of our impending opening at 3B, a lingering bad taste from the continuing reign of Dan Haren, and a series of sabernomic analyses that have pegged the value of the players swapped as tilted toward the Athletics side.

In order to give this a more positive spin, let me also gush: It’s obvious that Ludwick has arrived and is for real. It’s nice to see another of these post-prospect, late career players mature fully into a real star in the St. Louis organization. Ludwick has all of the most important tools: Power, patience, defense, and brains, and I’d love to see the Cards sign him to a longer term deal to acknowledge and reward his progress.

15=/=25

by hazel on Jul 27, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions

I love seeing Ludwick in red too...

His attitude towards the game quickly made him my favorite current Cardinal.

by tlg80 on Jul 28, 2009 2:10 AM EDT reply actions

it's kinda weird

i feel like with all (justified) excitement over holliday, and to a lesser extent, derosa and lugo, luddy and even albert have taken a bit of a back seat. like before the next half inning, they’ll show holliday running in and specifically mention that he’s due up in the next inning and i’m like what about the best player in a generation? he’s up next also. i dunno. he needs to get going again, too. if albert would hit again, this team would be beyond dominant. especially if ankiel and lugo continue to hit

but yeah. no trade luddy! 3yrs ~15MM at the end of the season. get this dude locked up. and don’t make holliday a bigger priority

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Jul 28, 2009 3:52 AM EDT reply actions

I really think we need to tie up Rasmus' arby years

and get Ludwick signed for another 3 years before we even talk about Holliday. Holliday is a luxury; it’d be cool to have him, but below-market value stars like Ras and Lud are the core of a successful team.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree 100%

Ludwick is at a place now where he has proven himself and I really think he can help this team for years to come. If we are lucky enough to have that kind of bat for 5mm a year, I say do it right now. Then re-up Pujols for whatever he wants. If there is money left or if Dewitt decides to raise payroll, then we go after holliday and lock up rasmus. With that kind of foundation, along with carp, wainwright, and molina, this could be a lot of fun for the next few years.

by cdc81 on Jul 29, 2009 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions

that whole excitement thing will only last a week or so.

Holliday, Lugo, and DeRosa are exciting in that they’re new. Once it’s more like they’re just “one of the boys,” it’ll get back to the old routine. I know I’m more excited to watch them right now because I still don’t know what they’ll bring and it’s kind of a mystery, but once that’s figured out, I’ll be back to thinking of Pujols first.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 28, 2009 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions

love Luddy...

… and i’ve long been unhappy with the lack of respect paid to him by the Cards fans, press, and org. he HAS BEEN adequate “protection” for Pujols for several years now, and he deserves much more respect than he’s gotten. he’s a very good player, well better than types like Carlos Lee or Soriano or Dunn, who just doesn’t get the credit he is due.

if we’d traded him for Holliday, i’d go on a fucking rampage.

by kindred on Jul 28, 2009 6:57 AM EDT reply actions

But that’s mainly in the little world in my head

How did the pig corner the breakfast market?

by STLRegalia on Jul 29, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

+1000

by Jumsy on Jul 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, I hope Ludwick stays with the Cards for a while

if the rest of the season goes well

Luddy in red (heh)

Cardinal fanatic since '82

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 28, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

that should've been the headline...

nice one.

by dbish on Jul 28, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions

a few quotes on MLBTR last week (7/24)

MLBTR

One GM had this to say about the Holliday deal “In light of the current climate, good return on a 70-game guy. All based on what (Wallace) turns out to be. We are not high on the other two guys.”

I wish they would discole which GM said that.

Meanwhile, a scout offered this about Brett Wallace: “He can hit but he throws like a girl. They acquired a DH — I think he might be Jack Cust Jr. with fewer Ks. (Outfielder Shane) Peterson is the hidden gem!”

does the exclamation point mean he’s being sarcastic?

I’m sure this was discussed, but since I missed out, I’m bringing it up.

How did the pig corner the breakfast market?

by STLRegalia on Jul 29, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions