Jess Todd is the PTBNL in the DeRosa deal.
by prophetjohn on Jul 26, 2009 8:22 PM EDT
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PrintThat's right, Goold is reporting that Jess Todd has been selected by the Indians as the second player for Mark DeRosa.
That means that our system is now essentially lacking of anyone who could make a significant impact this year - except maybe Boggs - with Brett Wallace, Jess Todd and Clayton Mortenson being sold off for our shiny new toys of Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa. I really think that Todd is the bigger loss between him and Chris Perez and all that said, the deal isn't nearly as ridiculous as the Holliday deal. Either way, I sure hope that Mo can do some selling and get something out of Glaus and Kaheel. If not maybe we can get five first round picks in '10. That doesn't do much to help us in the next couple years, but it's a bit of a consolation.
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As if I wasn't depressed enough
after our stellar pitching performance this afternoon.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 26, 2009 8:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
no, no no.
The Indians start to tank again, then trade Todd to a National League team.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And don't forget,
there is possibly a PTBNL (PTBNL or cash) remaining from the Dunc-Lugo deal. The way things are going, it will probably be Boggs or Descalso. Hope we win it all this year ’cuz with our gutted farm, it may be a long, long time until the next one.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 26, 2009 8:47 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
it won't be
it’s already been stated that the PTBNL in the Lugo deal is someone of no significance. The PTBNL in the DeRosa deal was widely known to be one of our better relief prospects, just depended on which one.
That makes me feel a bit better
but it still seems like we’ve given up a whole lot of future for a couple of rentals.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 26, 2009 10:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this is terrible news.
But there are several guys who could contribute this year- Hawksworth, GreeneT, Boggs, ALLEN CRAIG, maybe even David Freese.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
yeah,
I forgot about Craig. And John Jay, too.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 26, 2009 8:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Craig?
Now that is funny. I had to pick myself up off the floor after reading that.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
congratulations.
or did i miss something?
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
I think
He’s just talking about how Craig never gets a shot
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jul 27, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I agree with Sleepy's opinion that Craig could contribute this year
and now I see all along that he had it in CAPS, so just go ahead and shut your fingers down mattyfrommo!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I read a comment on the PD website while the Holliday rumors were still going on
that they’d rather trade Wallace than Greene.
The poster formerly known as JoeyBombs.
that sounds practically impossible
who made the comment? a member of the staff? the difference in value between the two is momumental. whoever said that is off their rocker, imo.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
I believe that was Descalso, wasn't it?
I read that there was some feeling that Descalso had possibly replaced Wallace as the top hitting prospect because he was a year younger and a better defensive player with the possibility of sticking at 2B or moving to 3B.
that is much more plausible
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
Motte was the reason they thought they could let Perez go
Great call Dave Duncan. Motte and his 97 MPH Straight as an arrow fastball is sure working out well
Dave Duncan
doesn’t decide who to trade. If he did, we’d still have Danny Haren.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
And he probably would have had him ditch the splitter for a sinker
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 26, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
But Danny's so awesome it woulda worked.
And you know it.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I know
I just love taking cheap shots at management any chance I get :P
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 27, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
im more upset about todd than perez
really, i dont see perez’ command coming around enough to be effective. also, if, and i know its a big if, but if motte ever develops anything resembling a decent 2nd pitch, he would become very valuable.
seriously, motte should try every pitch in existence, and just use whichever is the least worst. obviously, slider isnt the answer.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
i think he needs to learn a changeup
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 27, 2009 5:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Seems like a good decision.
Motte’s 3 years older, a converted catcher, and really just throws a fastball that requires max effort to be valuable. Perez has a command problem, like most young pitchers, that he should be able to grow out of. Well, maybe it wasn’t so good.
Samuel was the reason the felt they could let Perez and Todd go.
Among the plethora of other hard throwing right-handers in the system.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Anyone else not care?
Perez is clearly on the fast-track to bust-dom while Todd has a lot of potential but is probably worth less than $2M at this point (Cleveland would do well to convert him back to starting ASAP). DeRosa himself is worth more than the pair of them, not to mention the possibility of not one but two draft picks.
This is nothing compared to the Hollicaust.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
that really is not what we are calling the Holliday debacle, is it?
If so, I am glad I missed this weekend’s threads.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 26, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on what Wallace does.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
why?
Doesn’t it depend on what Holliday does?
Wallace was never going to play in St. Louis. People who think he was, are just wanting to convince themselves of something that was never destined. He’s a 1B and that position is blocked, just like with the thankfully gone and overvalued Daric Barton who apparently can’t hit OR play defense… yet was our #1 prospect once upon a time.
You sell high. The value for Wallace was very, very high right now. Even if he wins the Triple Crown and 12 straight Gold Gloves at 1B for whoever the A’s trade him to in the future, he was never going to do that in St. Louis. As long as Holliday does well, trading for him with “guy who was going to play mediocre 3B, 4th or 5th starter and career AAA/Bench guy” seems like a pretty top notch deal for us, and a good situation for Oakland.
if holliday
somehow plays so well this year that he helps us win the next 3-5 years, then he’s more valuable than the walrus. the sky hish team morale isn’t going to last that long and soon enough we’re the same team we were a week ago plus a rh ss who’s probably not quite as good as he’s been the last few days (no loss on him, btw. great move) and matt holliday
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
This is a Jess Todd thread,
so I’m loath to rehash the argument once again, suffice to say, none of what you say is anything more than forceful speculation and you’ll look dumb when Wallace is the starter at 3B next year in Oakland.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jul 27, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
where else will he play?
oakland is pretty well stocked on 1b/dh types
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Not so much, really
Giambi’s probably gone at the end of the year, likewise Nomar, who sucks these days anyhow. Cust’s the only one they’ve got who’s worth starting, and he can play the OF (very badly) in a pinch. I still think Barton’s got a big league future (horrible BABIP this year but he’s walked a ridiculously high amount – I think he could be a league average 1B in the not-too-distant future), but Wallace is probably ahead of him on their depth chart now.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought I heard on a XM/Sirius show saturday morning
that Oakland’s assistant GM said that Wallace was going to be given a shot at 3B for Oakland next year. Of course he could have blowing smoke out of his ass, but I don’t see how people can be so sure Brett won’t play 3B in the majors.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
exactly
ankiel plays league average defense at CF but is thought to be fine. people seem to think that league average defense is an awful thing.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
1) most metrics reckon ankiel is worse than league average in centre (in fact, he’s barely league average in the corners), although I tend to think he might be a bit better than they say.
2) I don’t think anyone is really under the impression that Wallace will be league average at 3B! His ceiling is probably a Skip-esque “Below average but his bat makes up for it”.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions
i was under the impression
that several scouts have said he would be league average at 3B. in all honesty i haven’t seen those scouting reports but i remember some of our more respected posters say as much.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
Several credible sources have the trade as AT LEAST a $10M loss for the cardinals.
Please read the initial thread to see this exhaustively discussed.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
we could call it Black Christmas, but I think no one will get the horror reference
There’s always Independence Day, of course, wherein Cards fans = Randy Quaid.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
that's the one...
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i haven't seen it called that anywhere else,
but, with all due respect, it’s baseball, not the attempted extermination of a whole race of people by a psychopathic madman, and as such, i think that calling it a ‘hollicaust’ is in rather poor taste.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
that is exactly my problem with it
I think it has been proven that VEBers can be witty enough to come up with something that isn’t a kick to junk of good taste.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
See, now THAT was funny
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 27, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd call it the
LOLliday Situation.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 27, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In his last 5 appearance Perez seems to be back to his old self.
Last 5:
5IP, 6k, 1bb, 0er
Also his velocity appears to be back acording to fangraphs, though I am waiting for an update for the last few outing before drawing too many conclusions.
his old self? averaging less than
2 BB/9 is a completely new self.
Of course, that’s why 5 innings doesn’t say much.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 27, 2009 1:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Me.
I could care less.
This operation has proven that “right-handed hard throwing reliever” isn’t an area of weakness. We have a pipeline of them and there’s no reason not to trade ’em off from time to time.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I COULDN"T care less.
Damnit. I’m better than that.
I flag myself……
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 27, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Scorched Earth Policy
Our farm is quickly going the way of the Cubs. All of this to make an 85-win team an 87-win team? I mean, really?
Jess Todd was my favorite minor leaguer. This is very disheartening. Couldn’t it have been our AAA catcher? Don’t the Indians have a million-dollar arm with a ten-cent head in A ball?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Indians and Cardinals Fan
The Indians don’t need another catcher, they’ve got Carlos Sntana.
I don’t know who you’re referring to in the second part of your statement but the Indians need more pitching especially relief pitching. They have a pretty solid offense (Top 10 in the AL) with terrible pitching so they are going to stock up on pitchers.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jul 26, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
how has perez been received by indians fans so far?
and for that matter, anthony reyes?
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
Perez is sort of split. His first appearence and then one after that were terrible but about par for the course with our bullpen so people just kind of went with it. he has been terrific recently and maybe winning people to his side.
Some Perez commentary:
Why not? This Indians team is about to go all Mad Max. The next 9 weeks are going to be surreal. I bet they get to 84 wins and look insane every step of the way.
This guy plays for us now:
Character is dead. Long live unpredictability.
by afh4 on Jul 24, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Obviously heavy sarcasm but I think he is winnig some fans.
Reyes I think was considered terrible at the beginning of this year but then we found out he was pitching hurt and now he won’t be back until sometime next year so most people I think are sort of annoyed with that but witholding judgment.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jul 26, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
wait what?
diner is hurt? wtf happened those last two innings i didn’t watch?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
oh, anthony reyes?
pshh
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Bummer...
I originally thought the DeRosa trade was a good deal but not now. For some reason, I didn’t think that Todd would be the PTBNL.
Hope we don’t sign either DeRosa or Holliday for next year, unless they take an extreme “Home-town Discount”. We would at least get some draft picks to re-stock the farm.
4 draft picks+$28M per season for the next two years and $22.5M/season for the five years after that.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
i'll still take the players over the picks
I’d rather have a very good lineup for the next 2-4 years, then a couple extra draft picks who have a low probability of seeing the major leagues.
but if you sign players, you lose draft picks
aaaargh. circles within circles.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
unless I'm missing something
If there were two identical type A players about to hit free agency, one on your own team, and one on another team, you’d be better off signing the guy from the other team:
(a) resign your player: no picks lost, no picks gained; net change of 0 picks
(b) sign the other FA: one pick lost, two picks gained; net change of +1 picks
I suppose if you were drafting 16th and the team that signs your FA were drafting 14th or made another big signing, you might have a net loss, but that seems rare.
by brackenthebox on Jul 28, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
yes picks lost
where do you think we get those picks from for someone signing our type A?
the team that signs them coughs them up.
your plan only works when we’re in the bottom half of MLB. and even then you’re still losing picks, you’re just trading a 2nd rounder for a first rounder
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
wait
i misread your point
yeah, because of the supplemental
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
yeah, he's right
i was just trying to be funny, but failed, as usual ;)
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
Visiting from LetsGoTribe … pardon the possibly dumb question, but is there a reason that Todd was called up last month for one game? Seems like a pretty odd choice to start a guy’s option clock for one game … but maybe his contract called for him to be called up within two years? But that would be an unusual clause to see in a second rounder’s contract.
Can anyone shed some light on this?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I'm not exactly sure what there reasoning was
but it couldn’t have been sound.
Enjoy your trade, Todd is very good for a PTBNL.
Thank you, sorry this is such an aggravation for you guys. Of course they stressed this was not a normal PTBN situation, and as Indians fans, we knew what that meant, since Shapiro did the same thing in the Sabathia deal last year (eventually getting Michael Brantley). But I guess it could blindside a fanbase that didn’t know that the PTBN was actually going to be a serious part of the deal, since the PTBNL is reliably not a serious part of any other deal.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
We'd always heard that the PTBNL would be either Todd or Francisco Samuel
Todd, obviously, is outstanding and on the cusp of the majors. Samuel has tremendous potential. We knew we’d be giving up alot to go along with Perez. It still sucks to see one of our best (if not THE best) prospects depart as a “throw-in” in a trade for a 3-month rental.
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 27, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
samuel could be better
if only he could pull his command together. until he does that, he’s lucky to be at AA
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Because
The Cardinals roster management has been absolutely horrendous this year.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jul 27, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Thinking that has to be it, unfortunately.
Thanks to everyone for responding.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
No problem
Enjoy watching the Destroyer. I know he was fun to watch in AA Springfield last year. At the Texas Leauge ASG, he K’d 5 batters in 2 innings.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jul 27, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
guessing your team and our team were talking
and they wanted to see Todd destroy some folks at the MLB level. granted it didn’t work out that way, but that’s how it goes.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
A questionable deal just became clear: Cards gave up toooooooo much for too little. . . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
Ouch.
That one stings a little.
"I will grow a mustache bigger than Wyatt Earp's if we keep winning," - Adam Wainwright
by Beware the Molinas on Jul 26, 2009 11:59 PM EDT reply actions
Fuck
Why, tgf, do you say fuck?
Well, let me tell you why.
First off, Jess Todd is now really going to destroy us all. He’s 23 in AAA with a 2.35 FIP and a 4.83 K/BB ratio over 40 appearances. That’s much better than Chris Perez was in Memphis at the same age in 2008 (3.28 FIP, 3.17 K/BB).
Second, this trade blows. Perez and Todd for 3 months of DeRosa?! Perez alone should have done it, or even Perez + C level prospect. But no, we have to throw in Jess Todd. If he was on a list of possible PTBNLs, who in their right mind wouldn’t pick him?!?
Third, who drugged Mo to make him pull of these trades? I understand trading some of our depth, but neither of these trades were smart. This deal was clearly balanced in favor of the Indians, and the Holliday deal was clearly in favor of the A’s. At a time when prospects are valued heavily, why is it that we had to give up so much to two weak teams for players whose contracts are about to expire?
Fourth, I don’t understand this. This sucks.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
i need better drugs, call me MO
or email. whatev. i feel like shit, so please hurry.
what a dumb fucking trade MO.
i hope you are happy Tony. no one else fucking is.
FOR RENT
"At a time when prospects are valued heavily"
Maybe too heavily?
I’m not sayin’….I’m just sayin……
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
you've got the framing wrong...
… it’s either Perez + Todd for 3 months of DeRosa plus 1 (probably 2) high draft picks OR we could re-sign DeRosa without sacrificing our own first round pick.
the DeRosa deal was fine. the Holliday deal… i’m not a fan. but i’ll enjoy Holliday’s two months in St. Louis, and hopefully we get a championship out of it.
Hold the same opinions
I think there are multiple ways to field a decent bullpen. If you don’t get too hung out on the closer label, you can find people that can get people out for an inning without breaking the bank. So I don’t have the same uneasy feeling about giving 2 bullpen guys for DeRosa. I will say I was surprised we moved Todd to the pen when he wasn’t showing any troubles starting. I suspect it might be good long term for Todd given the number of sliders he snaps off, but it’s tough to decide that immediately after he was your org’s pitcher of the year. I wonder how Cleveland uses him next year?
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 27, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
My problem is
That we have sold off nearly all of our depth, especially when it comes to relievers. Here are players we have traded away recently: Anthony Reyes, Gregerson, Perdomo, Worrell, Todd, Perez, Barton, Duncan, Peterson, and Wallace, plus another PTBNL. What have we gotten? Khalil Greene, Julio Lugo, and rentals on DeRosa and Holliday.
Losing Todd is just the icing on the cake for me.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jul 27, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
We do know the world doesn't stop spinning
this November, right?
We went from one of the younger teams in baseball to dirt-ass-old.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 27, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions
Well it might stop spinning
with a WS victory and a Pujols extension. Or it might stop spinning when I realize see Holliday and DeRosa in other uniforms along with some of our prospects.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jul 27, 2009 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions
well, shit!
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 27, 2009 1:10 AM EDT reply actions
It's not that big of a deal.
We have a shit ton of right handed relievers. He wasn’t going to impact the roster this year, and by next year, Francisco Samuel will make you forget about Jess Todd. As will Casey Mulligan and a handful of other hard-throwing right-handed relievers.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
that was awesome
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i also forgot to point out
jaime garcia. i guess he’s the most likely to significantly contribute this season
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
good point
though I’ll believe it when I see it.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
i hold out a shred of hope for jaime
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This season?
Probably not. But definitely next season.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
and now that i've had a chance to let this settle in,
i’m not too upset. whether it be because DeRosa has been stellar since coming off the DL or because Todd is really the centerpiece of the trade with Perez being a throw in that could be great or could tread along in mediocrity for his career or simply because the atrocity that is the Holliday trade overshadows it, i’m not quite as suicidal as i was about losing wallace. todd was easily our best relief prospect, but we’re deep, like almost drowning in right handed relief. surely one of samuel, salas, sanchez, reifer, etc can step up and be a solid 7/8/9th inning guy. and not to mention, the prospect of re-signing DeRo is pretty feasible. offer him $6MM for arb. either he takes it or we get a pick. and if he keeps hitting out of his mind, maybe he works his way up to type A and we get ourselves another first round pick
Todd is a lot to lose, but, jus’ sayin’, this only hurts as bad it does because it’s a couple days after we found out we just dealt the best hitting prospect our farm has turned out in 9 years. i disagree with whoever said Todd’s only worth $2MM (i could see him being an ~3FIP guy in a year or two time) but he’s relatively replaceable.
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I just ballparked the $2M based on the probability that he makes it or busts and the value he's likely to have if he does make it.
And I think he’s worth less than $2M.
Otherwise, I agree.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
i expected this...
… and i remember being scoffed at when i said that DeRosa was worth more than Perez plus a fringe prospect.
i’m still okay with it. it’s much better than the Wallace trade at least. frankly, we don’t know what Todd’s value really is. he’s been a starter for almost all of his career. so while his numbers right now are gaudy, the rest of the league could catch up to him. he doesn’t have typical late-inning stuff, and plenty of relievers look great in the minors before getting lit up in the bigs. and Perez is… Perez. he’ll probably have an okay career: K a bunch, BB a bunch, but basically he’s probably a 7th inning guy. that sort of player isn’t worth a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
and we’ve got Samuel, Salas, and Reifer who can potentially step into that role as early as ’10 or ’11.
so i still think it’s a pretty good trade.
todd is hardly a fringe prospect
but your overall point is pretty solid
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
no, that was my point...
… many on the board (originally) thought the PTNBL would be a fringe prospect, and i insisted that DeRosa had more value than he. i thought it would require Perez + somebody like Todd/Mort/Boggs. Todd is not at all a fringe prospect; he’s a solid prospect.
but his value to this team is as a starter. if he can only be a reliever, then it’s not such a huge loss for us.
Samuel is still walking a batter an inning
Reifer is looking more and more like a non-prospect, and Salas has pretty much fallen off the prospect radar this year. I’m not terribly high on any of them ever contributing at the major league level, and I’d be very surprised if more than one of them did. Todd was a much better prospect than all of them.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 27, 2009 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions
we'll see...
… Reifer is a ways away, but he’s still K-ing more than a batter per inning, and he suppresses HRs. Samuel is still walking a lot, but he’s also K-ing a lot and not giving up many hits. he’s still young (22) and has time to refine his control.
and yes, Salas has dropped off some, but my point is that 6-7th innings guys are somewhat fungible for us. if we project McClellan and Motte to be our primary late-inning guys for the next 5 years or so, then we only need ONE of the other three to be decent in order to have a good, young pen. or somebody else could emerge. before this year Todd wasn’t considered a reliever at all, much less a top-prospect-type reliever. and that’s not even talking about Kinney. these pieces are somewhat easy to replace, so i’m not terribly concerned about sacrificing one or two of them.
frankly, i’d sacrifice 3 Jess Todds to keep 1 Clay Mort.
thing is
you usually cannot count on relievers to be that effective for four to five years. Neither Motte or McClellan is lights-out anyway so much like the system depth at 3B, the depth in RHRP is quickly drying up if not already having disappeared,.
if we project McClellan and Motte to be our primary late-inning guys for the next 5 years or so, then
we’ll have an exceptionally mediocre, albeit cheap, bullpen? KMac isn’t a huge amount better than replacement level and is walking way too many. Motte needs to find pitch #2 before he’s an impact reliever – I still believe in him but he’s no sure thing just yet. I suspect we’re putting a fair few eggs in the Joe Kelly/Scott Bittle basket (I’m really excited about Bittle, personally….).
frankly, i’d sacrifice 3 Jess Todds to keep 1 Clay Mort.
Oh, I agree, but only if the Todds are merely bullpen guys – I actually think Todd still has more promise than Mort as a starting pitcher, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Indians convert him back. If I recall correctly, his AAA numbers as a starter were better than Mort’s, and at a younger age with better stuff.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions
minor quibbles...
… i used to word “project” for a reason: i think the potential of both Motte and McClellan is higher than their recent performances. neither has been especially bad by recent Cardinals pen standards, but both have the room and tools to improve. especially Motte of course, but Mac is still just two years removed from A ball and a major injury. he still has plenty of room to grow (although i might prefer to see him switched back to a starting role; whatever).
but even if they are mediocre — i.e., league average 7th/8th/9th inning guys, which is basically what they are now in aggregate — that’s still something to build on. they have potential to be more than that, but even that baseline is satisfactory in my view. if we get just one or two of Reifer/Samuel/Salas/whoever else to fill in another spot, then we’re in decent enough shape. and if Motte and/or McClellan and/or Reifer/Samuel/Salas gets better, then we’re in really good shape. and if we have to add a Latroy Hawkins-type to fill in a set-up role, then we can do that cheaply (and easily) enough.
as for Todd… for whatever reason the Cards didn’t think he was going to be able to stick as a starter. and his number were much better as a reliever, so that transformation seems to have done him some good. he was probably our 4rd or 5th best SP prospect (behind Garcia, Mort, Boggs, and maybe Lynn), but he was our best reliever prospect. i doubt the Indians convert him back; he just seems more effective in the pen.
I don't have a problem with Motte or KMac
in fact I like both of them and think they can be useful contributors. Motte especially is likely to improve considerably, I think. But the deck is pretty clear other than that – Kinney seems to have fallen off the face of the earth, Boggs should probably be our 5th or 6th SP next year, and Franklin’s due a bit of regression (though I’d still sign him next year).
I still feel we probably need a short-term band-aid in the pen next year – as you said, a Hawkins-type would be good. I’d even consider picking up Springer again as he’d likely be available for the minimum.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree on Todd/Mort. I really don’t see what Todd did wrong as a starter – reasonable control, good K rate, good stuff. Maybe Mort fits into our organisational philosophy a bit better but I feel Todd has a higher ceiling (and I think he could be a late-inning RP right now).
As for Sanchez/Salas/Samuel/Reifer, I think I’d be happy if one of them “makes it” as an impact reliever. I wonder if Joe Kelly and Scott Bittle may soon overtake the lot of them…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
In the same way Todd has been anointed a great prospect based on 40 innings,
Reifer is now a non-spec after 34.1 IP? Even if Todd hits his highest projection and eventually puts up his AAA numbers in the majors he’s a 1.5-2 WAR player. Mortensen could have put up 2 WAR over Wellemeyer this season with an upside of 3-4 WAR per year over the next few.
Relief pitching is just not that valuable, and it’s incredibly unpredictable. The Mets traded and signed relief help and their two most expensive relievers have made $20M and yielded a lame half a win- less than Ryan Franklin. Speaking of Franklin, people like him come out of the woodwork to post great seasons every year, and there is no way of telling if they’re headed toward more all-star appearances or a quick fade back into obscurity.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
Todd had been a good starting prospect and had put up good numbers in AA and AAA
Reifer certainly isn’t a non-prospect yet, but as I’ve said in a couple of threads, just about every team has a few guys in the low-As who can K like 100,000 batters per 9 innings with woeful control. Only a small percentage of those guys a) improve their control to the point of being a useful MLB commodity and b) carry their strikeout rates up the minor league ladder to MLB. Those guys still need to be King more than a batter per inning (typically) to be effective by the time they reach the high minors, EVEN IF they can suppress the walk rate down below the Chris Perez-ian level (4 or 5 per 9).
Reifer taking backwards steps this year doesn’t exclude him from being a prospect, but makes him a very minor one. He’s got a small percentage chance of reaching the major leagues. That’s just how relief prospects with good stuff and no control tend to pan out. If his control is going in the opposite direction to the way it needs to be, that’s not a great sign. He wasn’t on many Cardinals top-20 lists last year and the only reason he might be this year is that we’ve traded/dumped about 8 or 9 guys from the high minors.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions
More awful news
Descalso and maybe Boggs/Garcia aside, that’s pretty much no help the club will be getting from the minors next year. This isn’t especially surprising but it’s a hell of a lot to give up for just under 3 months of DeRosa. Todd is going to pan out as a good reliever or back-of-the-rotation starter, I think, he’s a real asset :-(.
Mo is really starting to look a lot less like the genius we thought he might’ve been, and more like a run-of-the-mill major league GM who doesn’t value players very well. We’ve really mortgaged our future on this, the Holliday deal and that awful Lohse contract. Bleugh.
Despite getting to see Holliday the rest of the year, I’m a little depressed about the Cards at the moment. I can’t help but feel we could’ve gotten similar value in WAR over the rest of the season without giving up nearly all our remaining meaningful prospects.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
I agree with all of that, especially the last paragraph
I expected much better from Mo.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 27, 2009 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions
You were right to expect
better from Mo, but you’re not factoring in the wild card here, which is that he’s not the GM any more, TLR is.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 27, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
second year
something i pointed out over at FR was that this is exactly what Mo was guarding us from last year with not overpaying for a RP. imo his job is much more secure having made these trades than not. if he lets another year go by without making a move to improve (even when no one else is) people would be calling for his head.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
Trip to the cool aid - can only hope that Mo has some indication that Dero and Holliday are willing to re-up with the team.
Otherwise these trades are really unfathomable. . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
I don't know about DeRosa, but ...
the latest reports coming from several reports are that DeWitt is extremely motivated to re-sign Holliday. It also seems as though he thinks that’s a key to re-signing Pujols. He knows his finances better than I, so I have to hope that he can then finance a competitive team around those pieces and the expensive rotation we currently have.
Recent events have led me to conclude
that John Mozeliak is a bad general manager.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
Defense submits for evidence:
Exhibit A. Mo did not trade for Francoeur or Yunieksy Betancourt.
Defense rests.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jul 27, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The court holds that John Mozeliak is not one of the two worst GMs in baseball.
However, the court also requests more evidence as to whether he is in fact “bad.”
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I think he's merely average.
Unfortunately, even with Albert Pujols, our mid-market team probably needs a better-than-average front office to be a perennial contender.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Stechschulte's Save Record Safe
Gene Stechschulte saved 26 games for the Memphis Redbirds in 2000. Jess Todd had 25 for Memphis this season, so the single season saves record for the AAA Redbirds is safe.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
ah
now we get to the bottom of this
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 27, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
LaRussa and Mozeliak both need to go
LaRussa’s petulance and Moz’s spinelessness have eviscerated our farm system and put us all-in in a situation where we have the third best hand at the table.
Is very bad to steal A-Pu's rum...is very bad.
what good is a farm system
If you don’t win at the Major league level? It’s good for the fans who go to the game in Memphis I guess…
how is mo spineless?
trading brett wallace for a (potential) rental of matt holliday takes some balls. we can question his intelligence all day, but i don’t think his courage is up for much debate
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 27, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
How quickly people seem to be forgetting
the trade of Chris Duncan…
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
not sure
whate you’re getting at, but i love that trade. even if lugo completely flops and plays like he did in boston, i’m no worse than indifferent to the trade. but he’s been awesome so far. defense hasn’t been terrible, but he’s hit in every game so far and had an xbh in all games but this last one
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
yeah
plus we’re paying ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the guy. Duncan is a long shot to ever be a meaningful major leaguer again, IMO.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 28, 2009 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Brett Wallace
I have watched Brett Wallace at memphis, and let me tell you that guy is a DH or a firstbasemen, he would never make it as a third basemen. So what good is he to Cardinals with Pujols? None, might as well flip and try to win now, rather than keep him and possibly get less.
less than three
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Sh*t
I was afraid this was going to happen when the rumors were so strong that Todd’s name was on the list. ‘course I’ve probably got an irrational attachment to Todd due to his time at Arkansas (the University, not the Angels AA team). Afterall, he certainly wasn’t our #1 prospect, but may have been the prospect (of those left, that is) most likely to make a contribution soon (like, September perhaps?).
So, in my mind, this was a trade of Todd + Perez for DeRosa, not Perez + Todd. Having DeRosa and Holliday is good for the club this year, I’m just worried that they’ve severely crippled their chances in 2010, 2011 UNLESS they can re-sign at least Holliday.
One thing I’m not really worried about too much is that re-signing Holliday makes it less likely to be able to sign Pujols to an extension. DeWitt, et al, certainly know that, as good as Matt Holliday is, if he is signed to an extension then, after 2011, we fans are told that there’s not enough money to re-sign Pujols, that there would be an absolute revolt.
There is no way...
The Cardinals would set themselves up to not be able to re-sign Albert. The FO understands the type of revolt from fans that would result in Pujols not re-signing, so they will do everything in their power to bring Albert back year after year. If the Padres are worried about a revolt by trading Adrian Gonzalez, then there’s no chance the Cards haven’t thought about this.
The best thing we Cards fans can do to make sure that all the pieces are brought back, is to attend the games and sell the stadium out day in and day out. The FO will recognize the profits from building the new stadium and extend payroll because the value of being a winner is greater (in profits) than being a loser and not filling the seats. If the fans decide the Cards have thrown away the next 5 years and are upset and don’t go to the games, then you are just throwing away the next 5 years.
I have a feeling that this offseason, Mo will have contracts ready to be offered to Pujols, Rasmus, Holliday, Derosa, and Ludwick. (Pujols 180/8 years (if he wants more money, then maybe he can work out a Griffey type deal with Cincy where money is deferred and he will make around 5M/year for the next 15 years), Rasmus 24/6 (backloaded – kicks in after Ludwick’s deal), Holliday 80/5, Derosa Arb or 11/2, Ludwick (17/3).
That would open up a spot for Descalso (replacing Derosa, creates some payroll flexibility in 2 years), Daryl Jones (replacing Ludwick, in terms of cost, Jones replaces Rasmus and Rasmus replaces Luddy’s cost), and provides protection for Pujols for the majority of his next contract (causing Pujols to take the discounted rate of 22.5M/year plus a some high value performance bonuses – top 3 MVP, Triple Crown, All-Star, WS MVP). Once Rasmus’ deal is up, you can re-sign him with Holliday money and hopefully Wagner Mateo makes his way onto the ML roster (Rasmus, Mateo, Jones).
I think DeRosa and Ludwick will cost more than that
I think it’s a bit too early to project Wagner Mateo (!) onto a major league roster, too….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 29, 2009 5:24 AM EDT up reply actions
So after giving a player...
one of the largest signing bonuses of the year, you don’t project him to be on a major league roster? I admit, 5 years may be early, but you don’t know what other players will be drafted that could fill in that slot (just used a name fans should be familiar with, drafted player x doesn’t have the same kind of thoughts attached to it as a recently signed top foreign talent).
Too early for a Rasmus contract
They’ll wait a year or two only buying out his last 2-3 years of arbitration.
by ArkansasTravs on Jul 29, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
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