The Deadline Approacheth
by chuckb on Jul 26, 2009 1:23 AM EDT
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PrintCards – division leader – I still believe the Cards could use 1 more starting pitcher but doubt that anything will happen along those lines between now and Friday. I expect we’ll see what Holliday’s addition does to the lineup and give Wellemeyer another couple of weeks to sort himself out. If those things don’t work, we can always look through the waiver wire to see who slips through. One thing I know is that Tony will not allow 20% of the remainder of our starts to be turned over to Mitch Boggs or Blake Hawksworth, no matter how well they’re pitching at Memphis. It’ll be Wellemeyer or some other vet. To this point, Wellemeyer has been basically a replacement level pitcher so it’s likely that any starter we could trade for would be worth no more than 1 win. Still, Holliday’s trade proves that we’re all-in and that win could ultimately be the difference.
Cubs – 0.5 GB – It scares the hell out of me that the Cubs, who’ve been savaged by injuries this season, are just half a game back. Yes, I realize that Dempster and Lilly have recently gone on the DL and we just added Holliday but the Cubs were the odds-on favorite to win the division before the season started and are an extremely talented, if aging quickly, team. I can’t imagine the Cubs NOT making a trade for a starter prior to Friday’s deadline. Additionally, it appears as though Dempster’s ready to return from the DL, as he’s set to make Tuesday’s start against the Astros.
The Cubs have struggled somewhat at the plate this season but that’s at least partly attributable to injuries to Ramirez, Lee, Bradley, Soto and Soriano. This team is, by far, the Cards’ scariest competitor. They’ve got to stay close, get everyone healthy, and make a September run.
Astros – 1.5 GB – That the Astros are just a game and a half out of first tells us that the NL Central isn’t exactly the best division in baseball. Matthew Carruth over at fangraphs recently explained how the Astros were the luckiest team in baseball to this point. Unfortunately for them, that good fortune seems to have hit a snag as Fat Elvis recently went on the DL when he injured his calf when he heard that Carlos Lee got an extra package of Twinkies from the team’s vending machine. The problem is that the Astros had little depth to begin with and their offense isn’t exactly the best in the NL anyway.
Somewhat surprisingly, their pitching has been respectable as it’s built around 2 solid starters and some vets in their mid-50s. This team has had trouble at 2B, 3B, and C all season and Michael Bourn has played over his head to this point. They’re going to need a hitter – probably someone who can play 1B now and 3B (if possible) when Berkman returns from the D.L. If they wait 2 weeks w/o making a move, they could be 4-5 games out and in 4th place rather easily and then it’s probably game over for them. I’d suggest someone like Chad Tracy from the D-backs or Scott Rolen. They could then have Geoff Blum play 1st for the next couple of weeks. They’re not trading for Rolen, however, unless the Jays agree to eat a lot of next year’s salary. Kevin Kouzmanoff’s another option and they could try and bring back either Aubrey Huff or Ty Wigginton from the Orioles.
Brewers – 2.5 games back – How is this team still alive? Their pitching has been the worst in the NL so far this season. There has been some talk of them being in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes but I don’t see that they have the horses to compete w/ the Phils, Angels, or Red Sox. Still, if they’re going to stay in it they’re going to have to have some pitching. Their bullpen’s been great but, outside of Yovani Gallardo, their starters have been atrocious. I could see them making a run at Cliff Lee but I think it’s more likely they acquire someone like Jarrod Washburn or, if he’s healthy, Erik Bedard. If I were them, I’d try and acquire a back end guy like Doug Davis or Washburn and see if they can hang in there long enough to add another starter, if necessary, next month. They’ve already added Felipe Lopez to help them out at 2B but they’re not going anywhere w/o at least 1 more starter.
It’s interesting that Justin Inaz has the Brewers as the division’s top team in his most recent power ratings, albeit by just one one-thousandth of a point over the Cards. Of course, this happened before the Holliday trade but I’d take our starters over theirs any day of the week. The Cubs aren’t far behind.
Our own vivaelpujols recently posted his Playoff Odds over at BtB and he has the Cards as having a 56% chance of making the playoffs. The Cubs sit at 40% and the Brewers are at 14%. That sounds about right to me, though my hunch would have the Cubs and Cards a little closer together. Interestingly, BP also has the Cards as having a 56% chance of making the playoffs though they have the Cubs at just 30%.
It’s not quite a 2 team race, but in my mind, the Brewers and Astros have the biggest ground to make up if they’re going to stay alive. One has to like the Brewers’ offense but they’re not going anywhere w/o some pretty substantial improvement in their starting pitching. Likewise, the Astros need a pretty big change to stay alive. The Cubs, on the other hand, need to stay afloat and get healthy. I think they could use a starter to help them do just that but this is a team that is very dangerous. They’ve been supreme underachievers to this point and could gain that half game fairly easily.
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I really can't see how the Cards
are so far (14 points) ahead of the Cubs in the Playoff Odds. Though this probably has a little to do with the fact that I really don’t know what goes into calculating the Playoff Odds… Anyone care to enlighten me?
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
Well, BP uses a sim, which is pretty simple
I had to do it with a bit more complicated of a method. It took me forever.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, that should be expected
considering Yahoo now has a deal with all SB Nation sites to directly link to them.
On with the (good) youth movement!
another long man
is that what we really need?
I''m a Jenius!
If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!
What we NEED and
what TLR WANTS are not always the same thing.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 26, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Despite TLR's track record...
I have a hard time believing Mitchell Boggs won’t be in the rotation after one, or at most two, more terrible starts from Wellemeyer. I can’t see any way he makes it out of the third inning tomorrow. One through five in this Phillies lineup, all lefties, is the worst possible scenario for what is already the worst pitcher in baseball. So even if he gets one more at home against the Astros, I can only assume they’ll shell him again, and I think he’s finished.
Or maybe not. But one can hope.
V, b.
It is the worst possible scenario.
That’s why he will throw a two-hitter. Nothing Welly does ever makes any sense.
I imagine Welley is going to get destoryed
To many good lefties. Will be like a lineup’s vs Welley
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
For some reason, my formula has the Cubs winning the wild card a lot more than PECOTA does... there might have been a calcuation error
If you look at the division odds, PECOTA and I match up well.
PECOTA
Cubs: 26%
Cardinals: 53%
Astros: 13%
Brewers: 8%
Reds: 1%
Pirates: 1%
BtB
Cubs: 29%
Cardinals: 54%
Brewers: 13%
Astros: 3%
Pirates: 0%
Reds: 1%
My projections are regressed to preseason projections, so the Astros come off a lot worse and the Brewers a lot better. Either way, we look to be the heavy favorites to win the division.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
It really is a shame about Welle
because I must admit that I would MUCH rather see Boggs pitching in his spot.
On with the (good) youth movement!
yeah
anyone have any idea how many times we’re gonna need a 5th starter the rest of the way? i know our schedule is comparatively light and maybe even if we have to have welle we can skip him a few times. we have 62 games left, so that’s theoretically 12 and a half trips through the rotation.. if we can skip welle maybe 4 times, i guess him making 8 starts the rest of the year isn’t SO bad. and maybe TLR can plug boggs in for at least one of those? ah what the hell am i thinking neither of those things is gonna happen.
Schumaker: "Finally, we get a middle-of-the-order hitter!"
DeRosa: "I guess I was just an appetizer."
our schedule is not comparatively light
The Brewers have the easiest schedule coming down the stretch, and they have three series against us in September and October.
If the Cubs are indeed heating up, they have an entire month of nothing but division rivals and Wild Card rivals the Giants.
The Cardinals MUST win their easy August or we will be slammed in September, a combination of heavy road trips and winning teams.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
schedule strength
Schedules by winning percentage. Dark green is a winning team, light green is a .500 or one game over .500 team. Note the italics = within the division.
Average winning % of remaining opponents
Cardinals
0.491557
Cubs
0.489036
Brewers
0.478817
Astros
0.505673
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
we have extra days off
due to playing extra games in the first half, so we may be able to skip the 5th spot in the rotation a few times down the stretch.
Same here
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
kinda funny
Cubs fans think that they are still the favorite of course. or at least the ones I’ve been talking to. they of course bring up the point that you did, chuck. that if they are doing this well with all the injuries, then they should be able to be much better once everything is clicking. I think the Cards have the upper hand though, hopefully. although as you noted I think the distance between the two teams is much closer than the projections. why the heck have the Astros been so lucky lately?
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 26, 2009 3:09 AM EDT reply actions
DeWallet opening?
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch talked to Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. about the team’s huge acquisition of left fielder Matt Holliday. DeWitt implied that he hopes to sign Holliday to an extension: “We’re not looking at this as a one-year deal, I assure you.”
Ah, the old Jocketty tactic of the trade and sign. Who else thinks this might not go as smoothly as DeWitt hopes? I think Boston and New York will both be looking for a LF in 2010, will they not?
I don’t know quite how to wrap my head around this — the finances of signing Holliday long-term seem damn near impossible when combined with the other…ahem…obligations. But the MV3 of Pujols-Holliday-Ludwick for the forseeable future really is a pretty enticing picture…
That is encouraging...
Maybe Holliday will tell Boras to fuck off like A-Rod did…but not likely.
V, b.
It might happen if
we all click our heels three times and hope really, really, really hard.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jul 26, 2009 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions
just ell me when the heel clicking is scheduled!
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
it's possible...
… that this is calculated gamble by Mo/DeWitt. i.e., if Boston takes themselves out of the market by signing Bay, then maybe DeWitt is betting on leveraging Holliday’s preference for staying in the NL to lure him away from the Yanks. especially if it’s anything like a Larry Walker situation, where he just falls in love with StL, the org, and the fans.
he’ll still have to pay the price. but this could give the Cards some negotiating room that they might otherwise not have.
but the can’t just sign Holliday this off-season. if they give him more than $16mn/year (as they will likely have to), then they have to re-up Pujols immediately. there’s no way that Holliday can be paid more than Pujols. so DeWitt has to be prepared for payroll to go up significantly. if he is, then great: good times are ahead. if he isn’t, then the team is in trouble.
This recession is affecting everyone
Yankees included. As rich as they are, they don’t have a bottomless pit of money. They spent a piss pot of money on Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixiera, plus they have their other monster contracts with ARod, Mariano, etc. They pay more money in luxury tax than anyone, and they aren’t getting as much revenue as they thought from their new softball field.
At some point, they have to take a pass on the biggest fish in the sea, and maybe this off seaon will be it.
And like you said, if he really likes the atmosphere of STL, like so many others have, that will play heavily into his decision. It did for Kyle Lohse, another Boras clent. Boras got a market deal for Lohse, and it was done pretty quickly after the season ended, as I recall.
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
Did you know that...
…even after signing all those players last off-season, their current team is LESS expensive than last year’s?
Several contracts came off the books for them…the big ones being Mussina, Abreu, and Giambi (although they still had to pay him a $5M buyout). Conceivably they could have added another guy if they wanted to.
I just think that’s interesting…
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
right...
… their payroll went down this year, and it will next year as well. Matsui, Damon, Pavano, Pettitte, Nady, Wang, Molina, Hinske are coming off the books. that’s more than $40mn off the books, and the only escalating salary they have is Sabathia.
they don’t have many glaring needs, but a power-hitting OFer to replace Matsui and Damon is definitely one of them. they’ll be in on Holliday for sure.
it won't go smoothly
but I was thinking about this last night when I should’ve been sleeping. I haven’t gone through the numbers, mind you, but signing Holliday might work if Ludwick is traded this offseason. The Catch-22 is that if we sign Holliday, it becomes obvious that we have to trade Ludwick (not an altogether horrible thing considering his age) and, therefore, his trade value decreases. If we trade Ludwick first in order to maximize his value, then we HAVE to sign Holliday and his value to us increases. Not an easy conundrum.
BTW, lots of people are going to do numbers on NEXT YEAR’S payroll, w or w/o Holliday. That’s the wrong way to look at it, IMO. The only way to look at it is in 2011 and beyond — w/ Albert earning $25-30 M and Wainwright’s $ going up and Rasmus becoming arbitration eligible, etc. Where will we get the money to sign pitching depth? Lohse will be earning $11+ M per year but we’ll have just 2-3 starters + maybe 1 from the farm. Where are we going to get the $ to pay for a 3B? What about when Yadi becomes a free agent? What happens when we need $ for all these other guys and Holliday is an aging 34 year old OF playing 110-120 games b/c of injury and is making $18 M per year? That’s the issue. It’s not next year’s payroll. We can afford Holliday next year. What about when Albert’s earning $28 M per year?
he would have to waive the no trade clause in his contract
iirc
by BirdsonFire on Jul 26, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
hopefully Shelby Miller will be up by then
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 26, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not optimistic
I could see this being one of those “Well, we made a competitive offer…” type situations. Holliday is a Boras guy, and I don’t think the “St. Louis Magic” is a)real or b)effective on a Boras guy. There are 3 teams that I can think of off the top of my head (NYY, SF, NYM) that could really use Holliday’s services, and if Boston would rather have Holliday then they could join in too. The Cardinals lose a bidding war, period.
If they do pull a rabbit out of a hat, then we’re in a bit of a pickle. How in the heck-fire do you extend Albert? Maybe they (Holliday and Pujols I mean) could work out some kind of a package deal where they both agree to play here for awhile and sign team-friendly deals in the process, but I doubt that very much.
This situation makes me very, very nervous.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
i think the near-term answer on the financing
With regards to the dewitt quote, is that we need a 3b, a LF, and a starting pitcher (pineiro’s spot) for next season. This is assuming we have one starting pitching role (welly’s) filled internally. We can afford to pay for two of SP, LF, and 3B, but not three, without greatly expanding payroll.
If we’re serious about holliday, best guess: we see if mather or freese or even descalso can handle third and pay for the others. We just lost one of our better starting pitcher options.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 26, 2009 4:09 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I am in a state of near-shock
I cannot believe that Bernie Miklasz wrote this:
Holliday is a deceivingly good left fielder. At times he will look awkward (he had one mishap Friday at Philadelphia), but overall defensively he is rated as the No. 1 left fielder in the majors according to the Revised Zone Ratings at Hardball Times, and in the John Dewan plus-minus system at Bill James Online. Holliday is ranked sixth among LFs in the Ultimate Zone Ratings at FanGraphs.Bernie busting out the defensive stats. Hey-oh! Maybe Goold is finally rubbing off on the rest of the PD Cardinals writers?
He always uses defensive stats
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 4:29 AM EDT up reply actions
+1 that's what I was just getting ready to say
When the SABR stats proves his point he uses them, when they disprove it he uses mainstream.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
Yeah, always when it's convenient for him to do so...
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
IE, the definition
of “zero intellectual integrity”.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
Kinney?
This isn’t the first time I’ve been more than dissapointed in kinney this year. Hopefully we’ll send him down today and call up Boggs, and they send wellemeyer to the pen to get his head straight for a start or two.
a few interesting tidbits from the Commish:
Even though the Cardinals have had the pitcher batting eighth and a position player ninth for more than half their schedule, they do not lead the NL in either batting average or on-base percentage by No. 9 hitters. That honor belongs to the Colorado Rockies, who have a slew of good-hitting pitchers, including former Cardinal Jason Marquis, who was leading the majors in pitching victories, too.
ouch.
In their long and storied history, the Cardinals never have been involved in a perfect game, either pro or con, other than the five-inning, rain-shortened perfecto that Montreal’s David Palmer threw at them in the second game of a twi-night doubleheader on April 21, 1984 at Busch Stadium.
That game was listed with the others in the record books for a while but later was stricken, keeping intact the Cardinals’ distinction of never having an official no-hitter thrown by an opposing pitcher at any of the three ball yards that have been called Busch Stadium. The last no-hitter pitched against the Cardinals here was in 1906 by Brooklyn’s Mal Eason at Robison Field.
so... who else wants pat-down searches at the Bank?
To take away all the !#)$*@) laser pointers?
(The Sith are displeased.)
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
well they've already taken away the fans' Duracells
you have to leave them something
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
Want to put a stop to the laser pointers?
Make an announcement at the start of the game that use of a laser pointer at a visiting player will result in a forfeit by the home team. If it subsequently happens, award the forfeit. And keep doing it until the Phillies have to be in last place because their trashy fans can’t behave themselves.
by Michael_68_1999 on Jul 26, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Than the Phildelphia Cardinal Fan
Hatches an Evil Plan
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
exactly
This will only please the Sith.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Wellemeyer
to the pen I don’t think is good either. I just can’t see him being effective out of the pen. I think it will be the bullpen that will do the Cards in if anything does this year.
Charlie Brown, tell your statistcs to shut up! *
Because there is NEVER any statistics to explain what goes on in Houston. Maybe it’s the GOB showing favoritism towards a team that has a ballpark named after such a wholesome drink. Maybe the GOB don’t like fat jokes directed at Lee and Berkman. Maybe they sacrificed a goat.
I don’t see them winning in the end. I do, however, see them managing to hang around and cause a lot of trouble until the end. It’s what they do almost every year. Yeah, I know the stats say something different, but so does Houston’s history.
*this is not a prickly or snarky comment. I’m just trying to point out that there really are some things that numbers just can’t tell you. Houston, for example.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Jul 26, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
who's buried in Tal's Hill, anyway?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I never thought of that.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
The memories
of hope of postseasons past.
by Michael_68_1999 on Jul 26, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jeff Bagwell's shoulder ligaments
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 26, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe even Roger Clemens' syringes
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 26, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ba-doom CCHHH!
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if they hang around long enough
that’s just one more team to beat the Cubs & Brewers, not such a bad thing, no?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 26, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, well, they're not the only teams to spoil
The Cards have 9 more games with Houston.
9 for the Brew Crew, 7 for the cubs.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
You know what Jill?
I’ll buy your intuition. I’m just too giddy looking at the possible lineups to be worried about other teams right now.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not all intuition.
Check Houston’s record the last several years. It’s like every year is defined by “luck” or something else with them. Some weird, odd, fluky thing, every year, where the whole is better than the sum of their parts. I just say don’t count them out until THEY are out.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Ok
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I know you are sitting in a corner somewhere laughing me!
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Has anyone else noticed
that every team we play seems to have one or two guys that just hit every thing that is thrown at them and is usually is the ones that beat us (this series it was Victorina) untill he got the whole lineup going yesterday.
yet everday you see Duncan drag out that black notebook with about 30 pages (never grows) in it that is suppose to contain the lowdown on the whole league’s hitters.
I sugest he throw that damn thing away and get him a good Acer notebook with a quad four duo processor and about a 500 gigabit hard drive.
by ridgesee on Jul 26, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
considering the fact
that we’ve gone most of the season w/ a 13 man pitching staff, many of whom would go a week or more w/o pitching, that would be extremely disconcerting, to say the least. I don’t know. He’s blown up 3-4 times this year so I’m not putting a lot of stock into 1 horrific outing until they happen more frequently.
I agree
I don’t think he’s fatigued…he just can’t be used back to back games against the same team. The numbers (SSS of course) are pretty grim when you look at them, but he’s also (and I said this in the game thread yesterday) sort of like a sidearmer…he’s kind of a gimic pitcher. Now, that gimic is the ability to throw a strawberry through a freight train, but nevertheless once you’ve seen it it is considerably less deceptive.
If he is tired then La Russa and Duncan screwed the pooch severely. They have their 13-man bullpen chew toy, there is no excuse for anyone to be fatigued.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I was actually wondering
if he would improve a little more later in the year. some hitters might have slower bat speed as the year winds down and his fastball could become more effective ala his september call-up domination last year.
I''m a Jenius!
If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!
motte
has never been used on back to back days before this season.
Hopefully that brief experiment is over.
good job we used him at a critical point in that 8-1 blowout eh?
instead of, you know, the 4 or 5 longmen and low-leverage AAA guys we’re constantly carrying on the roster…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm now convinced
That the cardinals will make another move(s) this year, all though not necessarily big ones. Just tune the bullpen a little. Think the Pirates would trade Matt Capps? I’d have to imagine he’s on the market since he is on their team..
Also, I’m back after a year long without posting (if anyone remembers me) but I have been reading all along.
I''m a Jenius!
If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!
Here's how I see it...
The Contenders: Cardinals and Cubs
I think this division comes down to these two teams. The Cubs have been slammed by the injury bug, there’s no getting around that. But on the other hand they’ve also just played poorly. Soto, Bradley, and Soriano have been flops. Dempster has pitched more like himself. Zambrano and Lilly (losing him for a few weeks will really hurt) have done well, and Derrek Lee has hit pretty well too. This is a very talented team and if their underacheivers turn around they will be scary.
Our squad has a pretty darn good pitching staff outside of Wellemeyer, and it looks the offense shouldn’t be a concern anymore (crosses fingers that Holliday isn’t struck down by a bolt of lightning). On a sidenote, I really really hope though that TLR doesn’t go insane and decide Ankiel is the starting CFer. Yes, he’s hitting better lately. But Rasmus is a better bet to play well the rest of the season from where I sit, and Rick is just as likely to flop from here on out.
The What the Hell is Going On-Tenders
I honestly have no idea how either Milwaukee or Houston is hanging on. Houston makes a little bit of sense to me b/c they have a good top two (Rodriguez and Oswalt) and they do have a really good lineup. However, they also have a few hitters who are due for a regression. Bourn and Tejada both have really high BABIP’s (note-Bourn is really really fast so I would imagine his BABIP would be high, but right now it’s .362!), and Tejada is seriously impatient hitter which, to me, would suggest he’s due for a long slump. Losing Berkman, esp. if it’s for an extended period with lingering effects, is a big loss b/c he’s Lance Berkman. They’re also giving starts to Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz…so there’s that.
The Crew have a horribly atrocious pitching staff. I mean, just…horrible. Teams that pitch that horribly have to mash like mad, and yes the Brewers have a great offense. But that offense has relied a lot on Casey McGehee and Craig Counsell posting near-900 and .800 OPSs respectively, which I don’t foresee continuing. And, of course, Manny, Dave and the Former Cardinal Family Band are an abomination. This HAS to catch up with them eventually, right?
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions
DGoold twitters that the lineup is the same as yesterday
with the exception of LaRue for Molina. So no Boog and no Rasmus again.
Also, Hawksworth up for Kinney. (Jess Todd must have misplaced his cellphone or something.)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
It's amazing
Tony is going to give back the wins we just got from getting Holliday.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn
Which reason is it?
- Young kids shouldn’t have to handle the pressure of a playoff chase.
- Those guys are in short slumps that outweigh the season-long slumps of Ankiel and Lugo.
- They wouldn’t get off my lawn!
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't mind Lugo
He’s probably as good as Ryan (/ducks shoes)… but the Rasmus thing is ridiculous.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
[takes off shoes]
I find I am irrational about Boog.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
He does need to find what kind of player Lugo is
He seems to not know much about him so that is my guess why he is still playing every day and the fact he is hitting very well probably doesn’t hurt
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
look at the rotoworld feed
on the main page. rasmus is hurt, at least to some degree.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
I have a problem w/ the Lugo thing...
…In the sense that, in my mind, it reflects a larger philosophical flaw in Tony La Russa’s managerial system. You and I and most of the VEB community can piddle our ways over to Fangraphs and B-P and B-Ref and THT (a veritable alphabet soup of baseball knowledge!!!) and pour through the stats and see that, yes, there isn’t much of a difference between all-glove/no-hit Ryan and some-hit/no-glove Lugo and call it a day.
La Russa based on his interviews and based on some mildly prominent book written about his managerial style, thinks completely differently. He thinks young players need to babied and protected and can’t be trusted to handle key situations b/c it will break them. He believes in looking at small sample sizes (i.e. hitter/pitcher splits and recent streaks) and eschews the larger picture.
He’s not playing Lugo over Ryan b/c he knows that if things break as they predictably could that they provide more or less the same WAR…He’s playing Lugo b/c Lugo got hits yesterday and b/c Boog will melt under pressure b/c he’s a young player, and said melting will break his brain. He’s developing a player by banishing them to the bench.
Anyway, that’s just how I feel…
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe he is just playing Lugo
Becaue he is the new guy and wants to see what he can do?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Possible
…And I’m going to tell myself that to keep from losing my mind.
I guess we’ll have to give it a week or so to know for sure.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Brendan Ryan is not that young.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I know that....
…but LaRussa said the other day that Ryan Ludwick is young too…even though Ludwick is on the flip side of 30. I have no doubt that he sees Ryan as being young.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony is crazy.
Of this I am sure.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jul 26, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ankiel
I think Tony is still gun show about playing rookies in pressure spots b/c of Ankiel. He feels responsible for ruining his pitching career. Doesnt want to do the same to a rookie/young player.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
Ryan Ludwick is not young.
Brendan Ryan is not young. Albert Pujols was young, and Tony played him. Of course, Rasmus isn’t playing as well as Pujols did that year, but his defense is very valuable.
Anyway, calling players over 30 “young” is crazy and nonsensical.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I agree that Tony is nonsensical at times.
Im just trying to figure out why he is doing what he is doing to Rasmus. I think there are a couple of key points.
1) Rasmus is young and doesnt want to ruin his career by playing him in pressure spots.
2) Tony has an allegiance to Ankiel b/c he feels he is responsible for Rick’s failure as a pitcher.
Obviously, both points are interrelated.
Tony is nonsensical but I dont think it comes from a bad place rather he is trying to do what he thinks is right.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
hey!!
i resent and resemble that last line
sorry
just figured that was the confusion portion
You did clear up confusion.
I was only joking, albeit a bad one.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
That has a lot to do with it, I'm sure
If he does, he shouldn’t though. He did nothing wrong by starting Ankiel in that series…that team had two really good pitchers, him and Kile, and one of them had to start. If the Cards lose game one with Kile and Ankiel has to put humpty-dumpty back together again that’s probably MORE pressure filled.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
IIRC he literally said that in 3 Nights
He blames himself for Ankiels meltdown.
I know for a fact he uses small sample sizes written down on little index cards and uses superstition (he paces in certain patterns based on how well/bad they’re doing).
He is captian cognitive bias. I would totally expect him to manage the way Rebirdnation8206 says he’s prolly doin’.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
i think
It’s easier to look at the big picture when you aren’t accountable for the little one.
It’s a terrible balance, and I think Tony does as good a job as anybody of keeping things from crashing on either side.
That said, Colby is hurt and is 3-31, he sits. That shouldn’t even merit comment I don’t think.
Lugo is on fire right now and if this is him returning to Tampa Bay form, well, I think Ryan sits and is a late inning defensive replacement. If lugo can manage to get back to slightly below average defense, Ryan might not make any more starts at short.
Ryan:.274/.311/ .363
Lugo: .311/.371/.454
Based on what I've learned about TLR
…he would be playing Ankiel over Rasmus right now whether or not he was hurt b/c Ankiel has played well the last couple of days and b/c Rasmus is young. The heel situation give him a convenient excuse.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
could the reason Todd isn't back up
is he because he is the PTBNL? I can’t think of any other reason why he isn’t up with the big club
Why not mention of Raz's injury?!?
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 26, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Because it's an excuse and not a reason
much the same as I didn’t mention in the post that Ankiel’s shoulder is still screwed up.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
U are right.....
We should just play hurt players when we have other options, and rest would help them.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
Rasmus
is the future. Tony would be an idiot to not play the hot hands now. Colby has taken himself out of this. Ankiel has played himself into this. Enjoy.
REALLY?
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
...yeah, I mean... Opera said something that makes sense...
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
No he didn't
Tony would be an idiot to not play the hot hands now. Colby has taken himself out of this. Ankiel has played himself into this. Enjoy.
That’s the opposite of sense.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
oh okay
eating and reading apparently a bad idea.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 26, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Tony plays the "hot hand" card
only when it suits him. If Raz is injured (apparently he has sore heel) that is a legitimate reason to keep him out in favor of Ank. OTOH, Tony wasted a lot of at bats on Ank and Dunc trying to “get them started” when Raz was hot so I think he plays it whatever way that suits the way he wants to spin it.
by nmstar on Jul 26, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ohh... I agree with you
I thought you said +1, not -1… my bad, your completely right.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Opera said something stupid
nmstar said “-1” because he dissaproved. I thought he said “+1”, so I all capped at him. It was a misunderstanding.
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Who's on First?
What’s on second?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
Couldn’t have said it better myself
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 26, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Make the decision...
…then come up with the logic behind it later.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
3 games is enough
to convince you that Ankiel’s the better player? Really? God help us if LaRue has a 3 hit game today!
don't think that applies here
since neither is a rookie. But if Yadi was, it would make sense to TLR!
Speaking of LaRue
Has Tony ever admitted that he is Welley’s personal catcher? This is not just a typical Sunday off for Yadi. He was also off on Tuesday, another game that Welley pitched. I could understand staying with this Welley/LaRue thing if it was working, but it’s not.
Let me get this straight...
Ankiel has had a season long slump, but still plays b/c, well, he has to. The other options are Stavinoha and Duncan. Rasmus plays admirably over the same time frame, considering he is only 22, and is arguably the Cardinals 2nd best player from mid-May→present. Matt Holliday is brought aboard b/c the LF situation is awful and the offense needs some help. One of the players who HELPED make the LF situation horrible stands to lose playing time. BUT…Rasmus is in a post ASG funk, so of course NOW we’re going to bench guys who are stinking, so Ankiel gets moved to CF, gets three starts and plays well. Oh great, we’ve found our CFer!!!
But wait…do those three games of good play outweigh a season of suckitude? To a logical person, no they do not. But to TLR, and apparently to you…And quit this “new environment” bullshit. It’s been two fucking games since Holliday got here, and the Cardinals got the shit kicked out of them yesterday. Albert has only one hit since Holliday got here, by that logic he hasn’t adjusted to the environment either. Give me a break. TWO GAMES don’t tell you ANYTHING because it’s TWO FRIGGIN’ GAMES.
You always make vague references to “The Cream.” Rasmus is the cream and it’s apparent to anyone who spends 37 seconds comparing him to Ankiel at Fangraphs. Rasmus is a better fielder. Rasmus, despite hacking too much for my tastes, has a modicum of plate discipline. Rasmus has shown more power. What else do you want? Oh, wait, no…two or three games tell YOU everything you need to know! Ankiel likes the “new environment” and as such he’s turned around, while Rasmus is a terrified beta dog who can’t run with alpha dogs and is the not-cream that rises to not-top.
If Ankiel plays like this the rest of the season, I’ll be happy to some extent b/c it will help the team a lot. But it won’t happen. Furthermore, Ankiel is one of La Russa’s “children,” and as such his suck-leash will be a lot longer than Rasmus’s. Ankiel will go in a funk and Rasmus will play once, go 1-4 with 2 k’s, and it will be back to the bench for Colby. How does that help anything? Ankiel gets to hurt the team by playing poorly and Rasmus gets to sit on the bench and not-develop. Lose-lose.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
I buy in that Ankiel is just now better post collision… you can’t say that didn’t have something to do with it, and that something was short term likely and not going to completely f up his playing the rest of the season.
(also.. CD poisoned his Dicky-O’s)
I'm not willing to dismiss it entirely
But Ankiel is a dead-mistake hitter. He can’t go out and “make” his own hits, if that makes any sense. If you hang a breaking ball, he’ll hit it. If you throw a below-average fastball over the heart of the plate, he’ll hit it.
He hasn’t been seeing those pitches much this season, and has gotten himself out on I-don’t-know-how-many high fastballs and off-speed pitches in the dirt.
Sure, his shoulder may have altered how hard he could hit the ball when he made contact, but his bigger problem is still his atrocious approach and pitch recognition.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
the possibility of a Cardinal taking the field while functioning at about 50% can’t be dismissed. Maybe Ank is finally healthy again.
I agree. ankiel was not healthy and could be now
but this begs the question, why play ankiel while he was hurt and then turn around and use Colby’s heel as a convenient excuse not to play him? Another implication is that it’s ok to play Ankiel hurt but not Colby. Either way it seems disingenuous to me
Why I hate computers
So my laptop just stopped working one day for no reason. I could not figure out what was wrong it. It powered on but no sound or video. I took it apart and tried to diagnose the problem, nothing seemed to help. So I got mad and start to shake the laptop violently and banging it against my knee. It works fine now.
Stat Whore
Tony knows Mo is shopping Ankiel. Let him play. His value is going up. Ankiel had a sore shoulder…….until he didn’t. Tony is finally transparent at this point. Enjoy whats happening. Colby has stopped adjusting. He is back to flares and weak flies OPO. He isn’t taking any advice and he isn’t responding to the new environment. Ankiel is Ankiel. His head will explode soon enough. If he goes by the deadline. He will get allot of starts.
"Ankiel had a sore shoulder…….until he didn’t."
Chlorophyll? More like borophyll!
by jd is legend on Jul 26, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jd
When you are paid millions, there are plenty of paid apologists. Ankiel had a sore shoulder until Holiday showed up. Now its better. Lohse stinks up a start, and there are plenty of reasons why. Of course if you’re on a 1yr Welly deal, no one loves you and explains for you why life is hard.
welley has also been
off the charts bad. dead last in every pitching category.
Jesus Christ would have a tough time apologizing for wellemeyer.
Ankiel has no trade value
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 26, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Not true
he has plenty of commercial value here, and elsewhere maybe. He might be worth a trade in a salary bail for a pitcher.
No, it's true
he has NO trade value whatsoever and there’s no way that a couple of good games is going to increase that value.
but
Opera makes a good point about the salary bail. duncan, who probably had even less value due to his defense, brought in a bit player. could ankiel not do the same?
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
You'd have to find a team that was desperate to get ANYTHING...
…for a player that they had DFA’d. That’s why the Cardinals were able to get Lugo…the Sawx were prepared to take anything to get rid of him. Hell, they’re even paying most, if not all, of his contract still. They would have had to do that anyway, at least now they buy low on a player who used to show a ton of power.
So, theoretically the FO could find some team with a DFA player that they’re sprinting away from as fast as possible and that could be a trade partner. I don’t think those teams exist.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
fair enough
and i dont think its reason enough to start ankiel, at least when rasmus is healthy. i was just being devils advocate more or less. maybe we can fleece kansas city out of soria. :)
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
Nothing wrong with that...
…This community thrives largely b/c it is a place where fair questions and logical opinions are welcomed. Things get nasty when someone is overly confrontational, delusional, or closed-minded. Avoid that trap and you are “made in the shade!”
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
i wholeheartedly agree
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
No
Hitters in the middle of a terrible season with no solid history of good play have no trade value. What logical contending team would want a sub-.300 OBP hitter? If someone offered that to you, would you take it?
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
"He isn’t taking any advice and he isn't responding to the new environment."
Your insights are so valuable.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Spants,
Its hard for me at time to chat with folks that have short memories or don’t follow the technical aspects of the game. Don’t forget that Colby has forsaken the terrible Hal, wisely. Tony doesn’t do hitting, but he knows when its happening. Colby has a problem that isn’t being addressed because of his attitude. Albert hasn’t responded to the new environment, Yadi either. Maybe Rick hit a wall today. Colby isn’t the starter right now.
albert hasn't responded to the new environment??
im not sure that i know what the ‘new environment’ is. do you mean the holliday era? if so, its been 2 days. im pretty confident albert will turn it around, as pretty much everyone else is to.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
If it's so hard, then why bother?
Like I said before, and I’ll probably say again, everything you say is convoluted dreck.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jul 26, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You haven't opened up to the various...
new ideas that change brings, maybe thats’ okay. technical aspects of the gam e are difficult yet simple in they’re way, Tony noes this, but others have yet to learn. Look beyond what you already know or will know and you will see what you haven’t in the passed.
Acquire Wlad!!!
by guayzimi on Jul 26, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Eh. It took like two seconds.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
A few things.....
1. Can we please stop with the defensive comparisons between Raz and Ank? I’m not saying Raz isn’t better, but the difference is minute. Ank is a pretty darn good defensive centerfielder. And if you are looking at a metric that says otherwise, I say your metric is “inaccurate.”
2. Colby is nursing a sore heal. Along with being in a slump. The two may not be mutually exclusive. In the mean time, Ankiel is tearing the cover off the ball, and playing stellar defense. Let it go.
3. If Lugo hits, he plays. 2B, SS, or possibly as a fill-in at 3B if DeRosa needs a day off. They guy has more talent than Ryan. If he is going to show it, Ryan may sit some down the stretch. It isn’t like Ryan needs playing time to improve. I’m pretty sure we’ve seen the best Ryan has to offer.
4. The bullpen scares me. I think Motte is hitting the wall that K-Mac hit last year. I sure wish we’d go get a veteran guy like Springer, somebody to help hold things together in the 6th/7th/8th. Kinney doesn’t seem to have it. Motte is wearing down.
5. Cards really need a win today. We can’t afford to lose this series with the Dodgers ng to town next.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 26, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A few responses.
1. No.
2, No. Well… maybe.
3. Ryan is a better defender, but I’m okay with Lugo playing if he’s hitting.
4. Motte shouldn’t be allowed to throw to the same potent lineup two days in a row.
5. Agreed.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Colby is just not as flashy as Ankiel
Because he doesn’t have to be. He is faster and a better CFer all around. All he has ever played is CFer. While Ankiel is still learning the position. You don’t see Rasmus having to sprint to balls than dive to catch balls often like Ankiel does. Because Rasmus gets much better breaks on balls because he is a center fielder by trade.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't see it.....
I’ve seen Colby misread balls that he possibly could have caught.
I’ve also seen Rick make SEVERAL plays at the wall this year. I don’t remember Colby making those plays. Rick is willing to give up his body, I don’t see that in Colby. And it isn’t b/c Colby is standing at the ball waiting for those same balls to come down.
I’d bet if you lined Rick and Raz up, their “40 times” would be very close.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 26, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
it's not the 40 time that matters ...
it’s the break/read off balls directly off the bat.
by hangingfromatree on Jul 26, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
that said
i’ve been impressed with ankiel’s defense in center from the beginning. but colby is very good.
by hangingfromatree on Jul 26, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus vs Ankiel
Reminds me so much of the Tortoise and the Hare
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Laughable.....
I call it the “Mancrush Syndrome”. Some of you think Colby is perfect already.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 26, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
not perfect,
just clearly better than ankiel.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
No, no, no, no...
…How many times have you heard people bemoan his lack of plate discipline? That’s a HUGE issue that could have lasting consequences. The more common refrain is “He’s done admirably for a 22 year old kid.” Do you disagree with the basic proposition that Rasmus has had a very good season when everything is put on the table?
Ironic, however, that you have such a problem with posters here and their alleged mancrush on Rasmus when you utterly refuse to see any flaw whatsoever in anything that La Russa has ever done, short of his DUI.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
i wouldn't say "very good"
i’d say reasonably good. he’s not hitting .280 anymore, that’s for sure. but he’s certainly met expectations.
by hangingfromatree on Jul 26, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
he's been adequate, certainly
probably as good as we could’ve expected in a 22 year old rookie season.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with a lot of your points 1-5 above, sooner
but I take issue with
Rick is willing to give up his body, I don’t see that in Colby.
That, to my mind, is kinda reckless and actually a BAD thing (not that I don’t think Rasmus will dive when he needs to, just taking the whole “giving up body = good” statement in isolation). Potentially ending your season by colliding with a wall/otherwise seriously hurting yourself making defensive plays is probably a bad thing for the team overall. A valuable hitter like Rasmus (or 2008 Rick Ankiel, not so much this year) taking themselves out of the lineup for months to merely chase down one long double isn’t good sense in my book. The fans may like it but I’d rather our outfielders stayed vertical when they’re near the wall, and stayed healthy…
Jim Edmonds would be an absolute shoe-in HOFer, rather than a borderline one, if he hadn’t hurt himself so often with his rough-and-tumble defence, and, although it was exciting to watch (he’s my favourite ever cardinal) he’d have been more valuable overall if he’d kept himself more healthy but missed one or two catches per season.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing that I expect to be true
Ankiel’s and Rasmus will both see a hit to their UZR numbers from the rest of the season on. Not from playing worst but by Duncan gone. Their is a competent LFer now in all situations. The CFer no longer has to cover the range of the LFer anymore.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 26, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
agree with this 100%
and Holliday is not just a “competent LF”, but probably a guy who could fake CF, like ankiel or Ludwick.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
your first point is poor, imo
you are insistent on ignoring any metric, or anything for that matter, that disagrees with your own personal belief. are you not at least willing to consider the metric?
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
It's been shown (in serveral studies) that people
drastically over estimate both the quality and the quantity of thier knowledge. Most people only consider what they “know” as relevant and strongly disregard what they don’t “know”.
Most people can’t drop their ego and get passed their scientifically proven biases.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
Responses, point by point
- Your eyes are more accurate than data. Okay, if you want to believe that then I can’t stop you. I disagree b/c I have a rudimentary understanding of human psychology (i.e. remembering big/exciting things, certain things playing tricks on what you remember, etc) and doubt very much that you can objectively tell who is a better player simply by watching broadcasts. But maybe you can.
- Based on what I’ve learned about LaRussa, Rasmus’s 3-31 slump would outweigh Ankiel’s season of suck whether or not Rasmus’s heel was in good shape or not. This gives TLR another crutch to use. I don’t know, maybe Rasmus is in catastrophic pain. But I don’t think it would change TLR’s mind.
- I’m really sort of indifferent about who ends up being the SS. If Lugo hits the crap out of the ball and isn’t an abomination, I can live with it. If things break that way they’ll be similar WAR wise anyway. It becomes an issue if it reflects larger logical flaws in La Russa’s managerial style, like i said above. This one by itself is not a deal breaker.
- If Motte is hitting a wall than TLR/Duncan screwed something up. They have carried 13 pitchers in the bullpen for a good portion of the season, so there is no excuse for wearing a guy out. Also, he shouldn’t be used on consecutive days vs. the same team b/c he’s a gimick pitcher…with that gimick being one extremely hard fastball. The more you see that pitch, the less deceptive it becomes. There is no reason to use him in an 8-1 game at the beginning of a big series with a good team.
- You’re damn right they do. You and I could not be in greater agreement.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Lugo
If Lugo continues to hit the crap out of the ball (circa Lopez 08), the Cards could have moved Skip to left and not have needed an extra bat. Then the Cards could have used Wallace et al. and gotten the starting pitcher that we all know they need. Obvioiusly, its too late but its just a thought. Though, the Lugo trade would not have been enough to extinguish Tony’s fire for a Pujols protection bat.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
it'd be interesting to poll the board on this
I put no faith whatsoever in defensive statistics. Offense, pitching, sure. I think the statistical tools we have to understand those aspects of the game are IMHO believable. But the defensive systems all involve judgment calls of some sort, which introduces unknowable, unquantifiable error.
Personally I think Ankiel is a fine CF. I am confident that Rasmus is better, but not head-and-shoulders better. But somehow Ankiel diving for balls means….I dunno, Edmonds did lots of “exciting” things too, but nobody ever used that as an argument to say Edmonds was an inferior CF.
kind of a side note
but what do both ankiel and edmonds playing style have in common?
injuries
the minimal flash that rasmus shows has a tangible value in that he doesnt get hurt slamming into the wall/ground
going with the judgement bit...
i feel that ank does not read the ball as well as colby does
jimmy baseball was art in action
ank resembles desperation at times in his pursuit of the ball
cheese just glides out there
I agree with everything you just said
when he took the HR away from Werth yesterday, it looked to me like he had no idea where the ball was going at first.
That said, as long as he makes the out, the official scorer doesn’t give out style points…. ;)
I don't think that UZR or any defensive metric is perfect...
…but they’re infinitely better than the judgment of someone who is sitting on their couch at home watching the game. Soonerfan is building his argument around the proposition that defensive metrics suck b/c they don’t jibe with what he sees watching the game on TV. Is that logical?
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish you woulda used air quotes
when you said “sees”.
“laser”.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
What are some possible reasons why Jess Todd is not in the bigs?
His numbers are great. What more does he need to do?
Is it because they want him to continue to grow in the closers role and in St. Louis he wouldn’t be used as regularly?
Does it have something to do with possibly being on the PTBNL list for DeRosa?
Any ideas?
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
he needs to hold a puppy hostage
then tlr will call him up immediately
Isn't his name on
someones PTBNL list? Maybe they don’t want to show him in a good light now hoping he will be passed over.
what if we're holding rasmus out
in hopes of using him as trade bait. :(
I really hope I’m joking but considering Tony’s unwillingness to play him or his overall fixation with Holliday and Ankiel, I wouldn’t put it past him.
I''m a Jenius!
If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!
You know, that occurred to me too.
He’s their best trade chip.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
yeah I could be going to an extreme
but it’s been worrying me, I think Moz said in the post-Holliday trade that they were going all in. If we want to acquire another impact player, he has got to go.
I''m a Jenius!
If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!
That would cause a RIOT on this board.
To be a fly on the wall in Chuckb or Azuravatar’s basement…..
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
it would cause more than a riot just here
when next year we have no CF, LF, 3B and if we spend much money to fill those holes we lose our 1B soon cause of contracts already on the books
I say this without malice or spite
but if Colby Rasmus is traded this year, I’m done blogging and I’d be hard pressed to continue watching the Cardinals. You’d likely see me following the Blues.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
There is an appearance
that the Cardinals have changed directions. They haven’t. Colby is their Farm System poster boy.
If you do the math you will see that Holiday is here because of the Lugo gift. The Lugo money was the change up front in the Holiday deal. It helped to give away Chris. The fact that Lugo can play, and wants to play is just a Tony discovery by letting him try. DeWitt is lucky. He will have lots of salary next year to right the books. The future of all these guys depend on future revenue and of course, politics.
that was illuminating.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Getting a strange post is like trading for Westcoastbirdwatcher, only you don’t have to trade for him!
You know, it really is…
Wait, what?
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Why?
You don’t want to see a team completely sabotage its own future in order win this year? You don’t agree with the Jockettian notion that you can torch your farm and then sign your newly acquired toys to below-market value contracts b/c St. Louis is magical?
Actually I don’t agree with that either…I won’t start following the Blues though. I couldn’t name 20 current hockey players, and that’s no joke.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I can only hope that Tony will play Ankiel all week.
That he hits .400 with five homers, and then gets traded by Mo at the deadline for a back-end rotation starter.
by notmorganfreeman on Jul 26, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
what could they trade rasmus for that's actually available?
That really doesn’t make sense – there’s no rental anywhere that is half as valuable as colby, and about the only player who might be just about worth it is Roy Halladay, who they can’t afford to pay next year anyway. Rasmus isn’t going anywhere.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby, Albert
appear to be struggling, wouldn’t you say. Albert’s body language isn’t good. It would appear that God is speaking in tongues or teaching a difficulty lesson. Stay with it big Guy. You too Albert.
Colby’s sore heal certainly seems inflamed again today. Lets hope that the home crowd changes things.
"God speaking in tongues"
Nice and offensive.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Spants
Thats a prayer from me to Albert. And I must apologize that you don’t recognize that. Also this is my last response to you as a poster. Go with God friend.
I'm not religious.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Yes of course. Don't be silly.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I think we're dealing with a spants-strike here
Odd
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 26, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
can we please get a new manager?
one who doesn’t walk all over the GM on his way to the owners office to cry & whine till he gets his own way? one who will play the best players no matter what, one who won’t toss good players under the bus just so he can prop up his toys. this is what Tony has cost the Cards, right from FR
6 years of David Freese
2 years of Troy Glaus
1 year Khalil Greene
3 or so months of Mark Derosa
2 Months of Matt Holliday
1 year plus of Julio Lugo
To aquire all that talent we’ve given up
1 year of Jim Edmonds
4 years of Anthony Reyes
4 years of Scott Rolen
6 years of Mark Worrell
6 years of Luke Gregorson
6 years of Chris Perez
6 years of Jess Todd
6 years of Brett Wallace
6 years of Clayton Morteson
6 years of Shane Peterson
3 Years of Chris Duncan
that’s just insane. no manager, even one with 8000 wins should ever cost his team that much. wake up Bill, please before you allow him to do anymore damage.
and can we please get rid of the idiots in the FO who call the minor leagues rotten eggs? is peace, tranquility & harmony too damn much to ask for? i’m going back to bed.
FOR RENT
back to bed at 8:30 on a Sunday night
I either envy your Saturday night, or I feel sorry for the damage these trades and this weekend has done to your liver.
Now after reading that list over, and over, and over again, I have but one thing to ask you:
Would you please pass the bourbon?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
definitely feel sorry.
dude has been sick.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
still am, and in desperate need of better drugs
tragically, i’m outta bourbon matty. although i don’t know if i could keep any down right now.
don’t cry for me VEB, the truth is I never left you, all through my wild days & my mad existence, i kept my promise, so please don’t keep your distance
sick, drugless & bourbonless is no way to go though life son.
and then my friends, you die.
fin
FOR RENT
Wow, that is ridiculous
F%#& Billy Beane. Actually... I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 27, 2009 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions
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