Explanation of Mo/TLR Dynamic

by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 25, 2009 1:18 PM EDT Comment 14 comments

I haven't posted in a year, but the Holliday trade prompted me to write. Thanks to everyone for providing

those out of town with insightful information. Reading the site everyday, I find myself agreeing with Kindred, Hardcore and Fourstick alot and the recent trade is another example. Sure, Wallace's future is uncertain, but we needed to risk that he could be a cost controlled impact bat for payroll reasons. I think a move for Willingham and a league average 5th starter would have given us three wins over the former league worst LF production and the worst starter in the major leagues. If Welley takes his turn every fifth day (they should go to four man in August) his WHIP will exceed his weight by the end of September.

In sum, I'm surprised lboros expressed some optimism on the payroll front for next decade and don't know if DeScal and Freese project well enough...but who knows.

This gets me to my question. Given the LaDunc reaction to Duncan's trade, how much of the Holliday trade was LaRussa's doing? I know much of it can be attributed to him, but do people feel like it was an ultimatum or else he would leave after this year? To the extent it this is true, did the FO think that TLR's departure would seriously jeopardize the resigning of Pujols? Is TLR's presence in STL as important as being competitive? I know that Pujols wants the club to spend money, but even he must realize that attempting to sign Holiday to more than 5 years (he rejected $72/4) and himself would hurt his objective of playing for a winner unless Garcia and Boggs pan out or the draft yields something quickly. Albert's going to want at least $25 million. I don't see how they can have Holliday and Albert and a sub $100 million payroll, but if Holliday walks then the Cards aren't committed. I just don't see Albert staying. Ironically, if they did win the WS, he might say that I've accomplished enough here and want to get paid elsewhere.

What I don't want to happen is see this dragged out through mid 2011, with the club saying they're making a full faith effort to negotiate and then saying he cost too much.

Separately, I really hope the Moneyball movie isn't made in five years.

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I believe:

the Holliday move was 100% an ultimatum by Tony.
that having Tony around will help keep Albert around.
that having Holliday around will help keep Albert around.
the Cardinals can have both Holliday and Pujols and keep their payroll around $110 M
that Holliday will be overpaid – if re-signed
the Cardinals overpaid in players to get Holliday…a more reasonable move would have been to get Dunn or WIllingham for far less.
that John Mozielak didn’t want to make this trade

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 25, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

we can have Holliday & Pujols and keep the payroll well below $110M

but it’s kinda a moot point as there’s no way payroll exceeds $100M next year, I think. Even that would be a significant increase on this year’s roll.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

a related unconfirmed scoop

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/7/24/961768/cardinals-still-acquire-matt#18637983

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Jul 25, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

yadi2second

Thank you. I usually miss the 5-7pm threads. Its too bad TLR has this much control.

by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 25, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

i have no idea...

… Mo has been trying to get Holliday for more than a year. perhaps Beane lowered his asking price, or maybe Mo changed his mind and decided to pay the price and not suffer the same fate as last year when the team tanked down the stretch. i doubt that Mo made such a serious move to compensate for trading Duncan, and i don’t think TLR has as much sway as the more conspiracy-minded believe.

more likely, in my mind, is that Duncan was moved pre-emptively b/c Mo knew he was going to deal for Holliday.

by kindred on Jul 25, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

it wouldn't make sense

It’s not like Mo traded lil Duncan and then found out that Tony and papa Duncan were upset about it. So he went out and got Holliday to make up for it.

by Evilfrog on Jul 25, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I got sick to my stomach yesterday

when Dan and Al mentioned something along the lines of “Finally all the draft work pays off. This is why you develop young prospects, to turn them into major league talent. Great move.”

what a horrible way to look at a trade and the farm system.

I''m a Jenius!

If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!

by gibbons on Jul 25, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

how sick would you be if you were a Yankee fan?

what I’m really asking is… do you think the current Cardinals’ roster (or over the last five years, say) is too overloaded with Hessians or imports (ie veterans from other teams which we acquired by selling off the farm kids)?
Maybe the numbers support you, I’m not sure. I can only say that it doesn’t feel like that to me (compared to what I sense other clubs have done and do)
Granted the Holliday move is a boomer (and I liked Wallace very much, so much so I have been arguing for weeks that he should have been called up to the show) and combined with the similarly timed acquisition of DeRosa and Lugo is DOES feel a bit like a changed ball club.

As for Dan and Al-speak, since I don’t get the Cardinal TV feed I am not plagued with/by them, but I have the sense that they make their living saying things in a stupid way.

by the Tewk on Jul 25, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions

it's well known Tony got this deal done

and if you can’t see the wrong in that, then no one can help you

FOR RENT

by gdm426 on Jul 25, 2009 10:48 PM EDT reply actions

as AZ said,

Tony was definitely influential, but was by no means the soul factor.

“The Holliday trade was, in part, a concession to TLR. (Note that I only said in part. That’s not the total reason for the trade.)”

http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/07/25/matt-holliday-tangled-web/

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Jul 25, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

*sole

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Jul 25, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

well of course

because he is not the GM, no matter how much influence he has over them, Moz has the final say (other than DeWitt of course). however, Tony’s wanted Holliday since Jocketty was here and I think that Holliday was inherently on Moz’s wishlist because of this. hard to prove but just a personal opinion..

I''m a Jenius!

If Adam Kennedy can make a MLB roster, anyone can!

by gibbons on Jul 26, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

your post is confusing to me

for instance: re Wallace “…we needed to risk that he could be a cost controlled impact bat for payroll reasons.”
What did that mean, in English?

by the Tewk on Jul 25, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions

I'm sorry

I’d like to know more about how much more payroll increase Dewitt will allow, but I’m assuming that Albert will cost about $27 million and the team payroll will not go above $95-$100 million in 2012. If that’s the case, I think that the risk of relying on an unproven prospect to provide alot of production is worth taking because, as fourstick points out, it will be a challenge to keep Albert.

by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 26, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions