The Matt Holliday Limbo Trade

Trading Wallace for Holliday would a shitastic deal from our point of view. Our future rests on your shoulders, Ankiel… fuck.

… not if Wallace is involved. i don’t think Wallace should be untouchable, but he should get us back equivalent value: a young, cost-controlled position player that is blocked by a superstar.

i bet a million internet dollars that Oakland would demand more than just Wallace, too. Beane has strongly signaled that he’s fine with taking Holliday’s two drafts picks. theoretically, those picks have as much value as Wallace has. if it requires Wallace + another mid-level prospect then it’s a terribly bad loser for the Cards.

the finance quote, but I hate finance classes.

Or did you just watch the movie ‘The Holliday’ (irony)? It’s not often that someone throws in ‘meet-cute’ into a baseball conversation.

And as far as my opinion goes, I don’t like shipping Wallace to Oakland, even straight up, for Holliday. Besides the usual repetoire of responses saying he hasn’t even seen Major League service time, he’s a very valuable chip in our stockpile.

Put it this way, I’m not betting one of my highest (probably most valuable) chip on pocket jacks and hoping that the flop and the river throw me another one. I’m going to ante a little and see whats out there, and see if my $5,000 chip suddenly doubles in value. If it doesn’t then we haven’t really lost anything, and this doesn’t mean I can’t bet on another big hand.

I know we are in a weak position with Holliday, but there are other hands to be played. Billy Beane will not hesitate to drain our system again. Hell people, they were gonna make a movie out of him call ‘Moneyball’. (RED FLAG) They aren’t going to ship Holliday off without getting a serious payout in return, even if they can’t sign him.

Alright, I’m going to bed.

Makes the right points and explained so well. I agree. I’m just not on board with making that kind of long term sacrifice for 200 or so at bats. It helps this team, and they deserve the help, but there are other ways of doing it that are less costly. There may be other ways of doing it with Oakland even. I’m not even against trading Wallace in theory, it’s just that this is for 2 months…..2 months!

Those guys have more young pitching than they can use. They can give us something to dream on too. They can even continue to fill out a rotation comprised of only quality young arms while doing it. Someone has to be the odd man out in Oakland long term. Actually if you count Outman and Duchscherer in the mix with their current rotation there are a couple odd men out. If he wants Wallace so bad, make him give something up there too. He can dip further into the prospect pool. How deep depends on who we are talking about and whether they can help us this year.

As a straight up deal, there is only one outcome that makes this worth it. I can’t get on board with that. If that means the deal is dead, then fine. I think Beane can dig a little deeper if we hold out.

for a start, Willingham is a reasonable corner outfielder.

regarding his future as a hitter, have the batted ball nazis weighed-in on wallace’s groundball rate?

Mo has already given tony a big eff you by trading c dunc. I wonder if there is anyway he gives tony one more. Why not bring up wallace for those two months what would the difference in production from him to holliday be. also since tony seems to HAVE to play a lhb in the 5 hole we slot wallace there and we move derosa to lf essentially trading ankiels production for the walrus. who cares about his service clock when albert’s clock is ticking. he is a once in a generation talent you have to surround him with a team capable of winning it all as often as possible.

or…. is he going to appease larussa since he wouldn’t play wallace anyway and go get holliday to shut him up about trading duncan even though that’s alot of rhb’s in a row in our lineup.

If the team cannot sign Holliday, then Wallace reamins a viable trading prospect plus the best insurance the team has for Albert’s potential/eventual/inevitable departure.

I kind of think Wallace might end up in LF. How bad would he be there now? Surely not Adam Dunn bad! Could he be an upgrade over Ankiel? I don’t like the idea of bringing up Wallace yet, but I like that option a HELL of a lot more than trading him.

Not that I think Mo is so stupid that he will deal Wallace for 2 months of Holliday. I would be shocked if that happens.

bottom of the ninth
caught the boat on the river
throw it real deep, mo!

But I don’t think the Cardinals should trade with the As.

EVER.

Its not that I have a grudge against Beane or his boys in Oakland. But it may be twenty years before the sting of the Mulder trade dissipates. Trading a top prospect to Oakland for a struggling slugger is just asking to be struck by lightning. The Cardinals need to keep their assets and get them into the bigs. Wallace is a huge piece of that.

Go here for an explanation of what I’m about to say…

Holliday is probably worth 2 wins, or $9 million. He’s also worth another $5 in draft picks. He’s due $6 in salary. So all told, Holliday’s trade value is $8m. Wallace is at least a top 50 prospect, worth $22 M.

$22>$8.

Lots of gambling going on here. IF Holliday can lead the Cards into the playoffs. IF Luhnow can draft a player in the first round of Wallace’s caliber. IF they can extend Holliday.

The more I think about it, the less in favor I am of acquiring Holliday. It makes no sense from a business perspective. I’m becoming irrational about it. The only way this deal makes sense, in terms of the price of prospects, is if we extend Holliday. I believe that extending Holliday would make re-signing Pujols next to impossible due to the salary that Holliday will demand and the salary that Pujols will command in his next round of contract talks. Brett Wallace is exactly the type of player that will allow us to keep Albert Pujols. He is also the type of player that TLR is loathe to pencil in every day. Thus, to me, it has become TLR or Pujols and I know who I will choose 100 times out of 100.

Isn’t it now time to simply send Joe Thurston down to Memphis (I don’t know if he’s out of options and I don’t care) in favor of Allen Craig as a RHB in LF? Furthermore, isn’t it time to make Todd Wellemeyer this thirteenth pitcher and install either Hawksworth or Boggs in the no. 5 slot. At worst, one of them would be as bad as Wellemeyer. At best, they’ll represent an upgrade and get them ready for a rotation spot in 2010 (when Wellemeyer is gone). I don’t see anything to lose on the club’s part from either one of these roster decisions. What’s more, if Craig comes up and hits, it gives Mo some leverage in his discussions about other available OFers.

It does make sense to draft a player simply for the fact you want to use him as a trade chip down the road. You simply draft the player with the strongest bat left in the draft preferably a college player who is already hitting at a high level against a high level of talent. I would say Wallace was already equivalent to a good High A (Palm Beach) player straight out of college. Then rush him through the system to take advantage of small sample sizes and to increase his perceived value. Maybe the Cardinals never had any real intention to hold onto Brett Wallace

there seem to be three reasons for not bringing up wallace he clock and the people are uncertain of his ability to hit right now and his lack of defensive ability. what we need to consider is not those questions but would he be worth more than ankiel? i’d have to think he most certainly would be. he would move derosa to lf and derosa and ank are comparable outfielders and most people tend to think derosa is just beloow average at 3b i think replacing a known crappy hitter in ank with a question mark is better than mortgaging the future assuming the cardinals are unwilling to raise payroll to keep holliday not to mention keeping wallace’s left handed bat helps to balance out the lineup better than 6 righties in a row. bring up wallace an unknown quantity is better than known ineptitude he can’t be worse than ank. they can’t pitch around him like the have in the minors.

I’m going to call bullshit. Beane has repeatedly said he’s willing to keep the draft picks, but he’s obviously beginning to sweat. The value of Holliday to the A’s isn’t much, and the picks are worth less than $7M, while Wallace is worth probably $20M+ right now. Beane obviously wants Wallace, but this trade is a fantasy. He’s an overrated GM and is definitely not as hot as Brad Pitt.

Hey y’all, I thought it might be useful to point out that, contrary to what some of us have said above, Mozeliak seems to be pretty reasonable and clear-eyed about this hypothetical trade, knowing both what we would gain and what we would lose. Here’s what he said to Goold:

“I’ve always said that we don’t have ‘untouchables,’” Mozeliak said. “It does matter on the type of deal, but I don’t think it’s wise to label a (prospect) ‘untouchable.’ Control (of the acquired player) is always a factor when you consider what kind of talent you’re going to give up. How long you will have him is a big part of your acquisition cost.”

So there you go: Mo knows that two-months’ worth of Holliday is not commensurate with six years’ worth of Wallace. And I think—I hope, I know, I suspect, I will it!—that he will act (or remain inactive) with that knowledge firmly in mind.

So other teams in the NL don’t get them?

per MLBTR. They are indeed in the market for a left handed 1b. Too bad we traded Duncan already.

when would this deal be worth it…NLDS appearance? NLCS? World series? World series win?

getting involved in every trade that gets talked about, and is thereby driving up the price.

ricciardi: i don’t know theo, the cardinals said they’d trade me pujols and cash for halladay.

beane: if you want holliday, you’ve got to give me a prospect in the top 25 in the country. why? the cardinals said they would!

link

“Them that’s talkin’ don’t know, and them that knows ain’t talkin’!”

I dunno whether the Cardinals think Wallace can ever play 3B or not; if he can’t, then he’s more valuable as a trading chip than he is on the ML roster. Internal scouting of Craig may indicate weaknesses that aren’t reflected in his AAA numbers — does he have “holes” in his swing?

Can Albert be a good influence on Dominican Julio Lugo? Will Ankiel start hitting any time this season? Do you make a move for the sake of making a move?

Count me among those who wouldn’t trade Wallace for Matt, but who would for Roy…

The Cardinals are about to acquire Holliday for Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Mortenson

Please tell me this isn’t happening.

I didn’t think Mo was a f-ing moron!

sigh

If this is true he goes from the one of the best GMs to one of the worst in my eyes.

Link

maybe the Cardinals are convinced Wallace cannot play the field, and maybe the entire rest of baseball is convinced as well, and so his value on the market is not what we think it is.

what the hell is mo thinking? This trade “makes me want to vomit”

I fucking hate it.

if this deal is real. This is a straight up fleecing. This is f-ing retarded.

Holliday should do well in STL, and gives us another guy that gets on base. He also plays a pretty solid defense. So we now lock down LF and 3B (DeRosa).

I’m excited. This is what championship contending teams do. They make moves to improve the team. I’m guessing the FO saw no way Wallace could play 3B or LF, and felt like it was time to get something in return.