Over the same time period, Joel Pineiro contributed 1.4 runs
by DanUpBaby on Jul 21, 2009 4:07 AM EDT
485 comments
When I was young I was not a fan of the concept of moral victory. My anger after Cardinals losses knew no bounds, made me miserable the rest of the night, and Edgar Renteria looking good out there or Brett Tomko pitching out of trouble wasn't going to do much to placate it.
But I like to think I've mellowed since I was thirteen (or sixteen), so: Since the Cardinals are still four games over .500 for the month; since the Cubs and the Brewers both lost; and since it's been a while since the Cardinals have had good sinkhole-related news to cheer about, I'll allow it.
The moral victory I'm going to take, as you might imagine, is that Rick Ankiel hit a double. I don't profess to believe that Rick Ankiel, having pulled one ball as sharply as I have seen all season, is fixed. But even one double is a big deal when it means one half of the Cardinals' left field Platoon of Necessity managed an extra base hit three weeks and one day after his last one. In the space between that XBH and today's—Duncan's last double was a month ago today, if you forgot to mark the anniversary—the two primary left fielders went 4-65 with 13 walks: .061/.215/.061.
I'm a masochist, so I took a look at every Cardinals box score between the 28th and yesterday with the handiest run estimator, extrapolated runs, to see what the left fielders have contributed in that time period. As a control group, I offer the hot corner, which has been quarantined since some time in April.
I can't begin to tell you how grisly this whole thing is. The third basemen don't get their first hit until the fourth of July; at that point they're worth -1.9 runs in 23 at-bats, which is extremely difficult to do. This is not above some average—they are literally removing runs from the team. They are breaking the estimator. They, uh, break out the next day, when Joe Thurston's RBI single improves them to 2-27.
The only day both positions pick up two hits is July 9. Stavinoha/Ankiel and Thurston/Schumaker share the credit; the umpires convene to make sure it is legal for the Cardinals to counteract the LF/3B One Hit Act of June, 2009 by playing no fewer than five players at both positions over the course of the game, and after much deliberation Tony La Russa is vindicated in a landmark decision.
Before yesterday's game, the two positions combined, according to XR, to contribute two of the Cardinals' 70 runs in those 17 games. Not above average. Not above replacement. Two runs. Skip Schumaker, the league-averagest hitter who ever did play in a league with an average, was responsible for nine. Not the position of second base—Skip Schumaker by himself.
The final numbers look like this: .132/.220/.132. No extra bases. Exactly twice as many strikeouts (32) as hits (16). Lots of Joe Thurston—and he was the best part. (On June 30 the two positions shared him; in true La Russa fashion, he started in left and moved to third.)
Between Rick Ankiel's doubles the Cardinals have averaged 4.1 runs a game. They've basically done it with six position players. If Ankiel's better than replacement level, if Mark DeRosa can eke out a few singles every so often, it's not just a moral victory, it's a real one.
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holy fucking shit
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
good old boy?
giant oily baby?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
damnit, sorry
i forgot the TWFS
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
continuing on with no body just a subject line
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Fuck, UZR*
You HAVE to read this and MGL’s comments.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 21, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm a consistent arguer not about UZR itself,
But about how people use the information that UZR provides.
I agree with everything MGL and Dewan said about UZR in this post.
Here’s what I take away from this:
- UZR measures a sample of player performance and does not measure “talent”, "ability, or “value”, simply performance over a specified number of plays. Hence, it is not predictive of future numbers in any way, shape, or form.
- You need outside inference (i.e. not fact, in fact, but opinion) to derive any kind of perceived ability, or lack thereof, from UZR data.
- If you’re using UZR to measure talent without looking at other factors, you are totally missing the point.
My issue with UZR is not that it’s horrible at measuring defense, but that it’s not perfect at measuring defense, that it’s not as good as metrics like wOBA are for offense. Dewan basically points this out in his analysis here:
On offense I believe we’re measuring 80-90 percent of the true ability of players. On defense, I believe we’re at about the 60 percent level.
I think that’s a pretty good analysis of the issue right now. He goes on to say that defensive metrics are improving every day and that BIS has now developed a batted ball timer. That should improve the accuracy of the data used for UZR.
It’s not the metric I have a problem with. It’s the people who use that metric to “prove” that one player is more valuable than another. Sure, in 2008, UZR tells us that Carl Crawford was 25.6 RAA. What does that really tell us? One thing — that Carl Crawford’s UZR in 2008 was 25.6 RAA. It doesn’t tell us anything about Carl Crawford’s talent or ability, nor does it tell us what we should expect from Crawford in 2009. Using UZR to determine any player’s “value” is really just an exercise in futility, because it’s not measuring talent, ability, or value, it’s simply measuring UZR.
Does it tell us some things? Yes, it does. Does it tell us everything? No, it does not. Can it help us determine how good a player is on defense? Sure, but you need other sources of information, as well as UZR’s info, to get a good handle on how talented a player is at defense. I do think it’s the best metric we have for measuring defense, but that sure doesn’t mean I think that we should use it as a measuring stick to determine player value, which is essentially what MGL is saying in his first comment on that post:
When a player has a good or great UZR in any time period, it does NOT mean that he is a good or great player and it does not even mean that he had a good or great year with the glove. What does it mean, you ask? Well, it doesn’t mean anything other than he had a good or great UZR.
This is what I’m talking about when I say that “UZR itself really doesn’t tell you anything”, you need inferred information to make judgments on players. Using just UZR to determine a player’s defensive “worth” is a futile exercise, because that’s not what it’s measuring.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Black Swan.
ask the fellows on wall street.
One day a skeptical turkey gets fed. It gets fed the next, then the next. The turkey’s confidence that he will be fed the next day because, well it’s happened the past 1,000 days, right? The 1,001th day was the day before thanksgiving and the turkey was in for a little suprise when the butcher showed.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Jul 21, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You are being glib
We’re not looking an Ankiels’ numbers and suggesting that he will hit .300 for the next 70 years.
The problem is with defensive sample sizes, IMO
There just aren’t anywhere near as many opportunities to field a baseball as there are to hit a baseball in a given season. Whereas, wOBA, for example, is indicative of offensive talent on its very own, UZR really isn’t capable, and certainly not in a single season’s worth of data, of being a good enough reflection of a player’s defensive talent for us to point at it and say, “Carl Crawford is a 25.6 RAA fielder.” Now, we can combine it with scouting, etc. and say, “Carl Crawford is the best defensive left fielder in the American League.” But, we can say that Carl Crawford is 5.6 RAA better than Left Fielder B (despite Left Fielder B’s parents grooming him from birth to be a MLB left fielder).
Adam Kennedy is a good example of the up and down nature of UZR:
2002 UZR in 1,112 innings: 2.2
2003 UZR in 1,119.2 innings: 11.1
2004 UZR in 1,225 innings: 13.2
2005 UZR in 1,107.2 innings: 16.1
2006 UZR in 1,140.2 innings: 0.5
2007 UZR in 630.1 innings: -5.7
2008 UZR in 635.2 innings: 21.8
2009 UZR In 403.0 innings: -10.3
These are all at 2B and courtesy of the fine folks over at Fangraphs, the official UZR website of VivaelBirdos.com. Well, maybe not the official UZR website for VivaelBirdos.com, but, if we were a Nascar team, Fangraphs would sure have a sticker on our car…
As you can see, the last five years worth of AK’s UZR has been a bit of a rollercoaster.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Agreed
Sample sizes have a ton to do with it, but we also just don’t have good enough measurements of the samples themselves to form exacting analyses of each player. Infielders are measured better than outfielders because they get more chances in the sample, but also because the infield is the same size in every park. That would be like saying that wOBA evaluates power hitters better than slap hitters.
I do think we’re going to see some serious breakthroughs in measuring defense in the next few years, as more and more data is added to the collection and guys like MGL and Dewan figure out ways to use that data to measure more effectively.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
These are all at 2B and courtesy of the fine folks over at Fangraphs, the official UZR website of VivaelBirdos.com. Well, maybe not the official UZR website for VivaelBirdos.com, but, if we were a Nascar team, Fangraphs would sure have a sticker on our car…
Okay… how much are they paying you?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 21, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
So its just as consistant as his offense?
Its not as if he was consistent with either.
Think of it like a coin flip..
you KNOW the probability is 50/50. If you flip the coin 100 times, it may be 60 heads/40 tails. These results are clearly not predictive of what to expect in the future.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Biases in a system and noise
do not mean that it is non-predictive. Even batting average is a predictive statistic. It’s always to what degree that metric is predictive that varies.
I’m going to take away this:
I do think it’s the best metric we have for measuring defense
If it’s the best measuring stick we have (and it’s not completely worthless), then I’m going ot use that measuring stick to evaluate defense within reason. If I evaluate defense with it, then I can evaluate a players overall value.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Dude
The guy who created the metric doesn’t think it’s predictive. Harder to get a stronger endorsement than that isn’t it?
Fine, use it to measure value. But then don’t come back and be defensive when someone criticizes you for doing so, because MGL himself says you shouldn’t be using it to value defense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
But explain how it’s any less predictive than any other statistical measure. I guess sample size? The 60/40 coin flip analogy doesn’t work. It applies to any statistical measure.
I think a big part of it is due to...
the subjectivity of the criteria that determines whether a ball was in range or not. Offensive stats are pretty much all objective and results driven.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
With Defense imo
You have to look at the whole team’s data. Not just the UZR but the Range,Error, and Arm. While offensive is based upon only one players output on the defensive side it is a team effort. The perfect example is when Rasmus cover’s Duncan’s range to artificially hold afloat his UZR numbers. It makes Duncan range numbers have lower upside numbers but he also performs less errors because of the limited range. Rasmus’s UZR numbers increase do to a large range to artificially increase his numbers. If he played against a player with superior range or even average quality it would greatly reduce Rasmus’s overall UZR numbers.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Just for clarity...
against means next to…?
If he played against a player with superior range or even average quality it would greatly reduce Rasmus’s overall UZR numbers.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Sorry about that
I meant next to
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Sorry about that
I meant next to
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
"Offensive stats are pretty much all objective and results driven"
I’m not sure that this is true. Definitely easier to categorize (single, double, etc), but that doesn’t make it objective. All singles are not created equal. Some doubles are hotshots off the top of the wall, some are routine grounders down the line. Some HRs bounce off Jose Canseco’s head. Offensive stats are far less objective than they are typically given credit for, they just happen to have more convenient containers than defense.
(I totally get your point here, though. Defense is far, far behind in terms of objectivity.)
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I didn't say they were...
entirely objective, and really meant in comparison to defensive stats. Over the course of a full season things tend to even out. If not we have batted ball data and BABIP to highlight outliers. These are actual measurements of actual events (though the batted ball data is subjective to a degree). Maybe that’s part of the problem with UZR in that when there are significant changes season to season (i.e. Kennedy) there is no other good metric to explain what caused the change.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
the 60/40 coin flip analogy works
Because UZR doesn’t measure “true talent” (equivalent to the 50/50 heads/tails probability). It only measures the results. Did you even read MGL’s comments?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I didn't say that wOBA was more predictive than UZR
Even though correlation to the data set suggests that it is.
What I said was that UZR, all by itself, cannot be used to predict future performance, therefore, you can’t measure future “value” of a player’s defense using just UZR. You can make inferences on the data based on scouting and other things, but you simply can’t use UZR all by itself to determine any of that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
UZR abuse annoys me
UZR is an easily acquired defensive stat that people abuse. It is a good counting stat such as RBI but in such small samples of even a season let alone half a season it is a poor predictor. My biggest beef is with the UZR/150 crap. What they really need to do is combine with CHONE’s pre-season defensive data. Like when they do an update projection such as with ZIPS mid season. So combine the current season’s data with past seasons do have a weighted average so you have a better predictor of future events.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
they eye is the only true measure of defense
/runs and hides
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
You are partially right
I think Tango’s system allows for fan input to rate defensive players. I like a balance between both actual scouting and stats
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I detest Tango's fan scouting system
People just simply don’t know what they see and assign way too many external attributions….i.e. Gold Glove and MVP voting.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
simple could be better
didn’t Ozzie routinely put up some of the best numbers in history in simple assists and putouts at SS early in his career? Just makes sense that to do that he got to more balls than anybody else.
Maybe we just need to accept that we can’t predict the future that well with stats. Well, some people can. But those people own private islands.
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope, let's abandon all metrics and we can just debate what we see.
In fact, MGL says the same thing about offense:
It is the same thing with offense. People think that the measurement of offense is "perfect" because we have these neat little bins that offensive performance goes into (singles, doubles, triples). Well, guess what? For the purposes of measuring offensive talent and using that measurement to predict future offensive performance, those neat little bins are crap. A player could have a good or great year on lwts or OPS and he could be a bad player who either DID have a good or great year on offense, OR he could be an average (or bad) player who did NOT have a great year on offense, but we were fooled into thinking that he did because of those misleading artificial neat little offensive bins.
And regardless of what MGL says, there is a year-to-year correlation. So, to some degree, it does UZR this year does predict UZR next year. (The predictive issue is a separate issue from what we’re measuring.)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
It's just black or white with you isn't it?
Az: “Fourstick doesn’t think UZR is predictive — let’s just scrap the whole fucking thing along with all the other metrics that aren’t predictive!!! Where’s my blowtorch!!!”.
I agree with what he says about offense too, but if you want to get into correlations, the offensive data sets correlate a whole lot better than the defensive one’s do. Year-to-Year correlation isn’t very good with UZR, making it a poor predictive metric on it’s own. Combined with other things it can be a good measure of defense, but by itself it doesn’t tell you everything.
Which is what my original point was all about: I tire of people using UZR numbers to measure a players defensive value, because that isn’t what it’s measuring. It’s not gospel, so don’t treat it like one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Your comment that I replied to was that I shouldn't be using it to measure defense
and that it isn’t predictive.
You added no qualifers. You didn’t say it’s not “very” predictive or it’s not a good predictor but that
The guy who created the metric doesn’t think it’s predictive.
What am I supposed to respond to?
I’m well aware of the predictive limitations of UZR and it’s correlations. My point was that it DOES correlate meaning it DOES predict to a degree.
That’s why I’ve never quoted it and said player X is worth exactly Y defensive runs based solely on his UZR. It’s always a ballpark (I like bins of 5) and it’s always in combination with what I’ve seen. But, regardless of its limitations, it IS the best metric we have available and I will continue to use it as such. I’ll also continue to defend it against inaccurate statements like the ones above.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I really wish
You’d stop quoting me out of context and changing what I say to fit your presuppositions. It’s really, REALLY fucking annoying.
Your comment that I replied to was that I shouldn’t be using it to measure defense and that it isn’t predictive.
I never said that. I said this:
I tire of people using UZR numbers to measure a players defensive value, because that isn’t what it’s measuring.
…which is a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POINT ENTIRELY.
When you use UZR to value a player using WAR, you’re using UZR to value that player’s ability to play defense, his defensive value. It is incorrect to do that. INCORRECT.
You. Are. Wrong. Stop arguing with me about the semantics of it.
Also, if you want to keep playing stupid all the time, that’s fine, but don’t expect me to coddle you like a pre-schooler all the time and then accuse me of berating you. When you act like you have the intelligence of a 10 year old, you will be dealt with as such.
Please point out my “inaccurate statements”. And please to that with direct quotations that include the context of the argument, not just the half sentence that you disagree with.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm done having this conversation.
I won’t fight with you over something that we both have a fundamental difference of understanding. This isn’t a concession that you’re right. It is a concession that you’re acting like a jackass all the time and I’m tired of trying to figure out whatever the fuck it is you think you’re saying.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
And this is not my best moment.
I won’t delete it because I’m sure it’s been read but there was no need for me to say that. I’m frustrated because I think we’re both talking past each other and neither one of us wants to give an inch. Whether that’s the case or not I don’t know. I do know this conversation isn’t fruitful for me anymore and I need to walk away from it.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I'm fond of both
AZ and 4stick, and would say that the phrase applies to both.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I'm not trying to be arrogant
I just support a point of view on some of this stuff that is unpopular with both Az and vivaelpujols. They seem to get really upset with you when you don’t just take their word for things.
I’ve done nothing but try to prove my point over the course of the last couple of days in three different threads, only to have the burden of proof changed on me and been told that I’ve “changed the subject” a number of times.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Bullshit
Again I’ll ask, do you really not understand why we were so pissed off at you during that thread?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 6:41 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I really don't
The language in my posts comes from having to always provide the “burden of proof” in these debates, when you’ve never shown that what you say can be proved statistically relevant. Instead, I have to show that:
- I’m as intelligent about this stuff as you are, which I shouldn’t have to prove.
- My conclusions about my arguments can be backed up statistically and are completely accurate, when yours in no way conform to that same standard.
- I can stay on point while two people don’t read the entirety of posts and also misquote and misrepresent what I’m saying because the misrepresentation makes me look foolish and is easier to argue against.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
In the last thread
You and AZ both agreed that there was about a 1 win difference between Escobar and Ryan. Then you said (quoted in the entirity:
Sure, overall Escobar might be worth one more win, but based on the scarcity of players who can play league average SS and have a wOBA of .336, I would guess he’s worth more than that. I know that the WAR calculation derives a metric for "position", but I’m not sure this entirely captures how scarce Escobar’s offense really is at that position.
That was quoted July 18th, 12.51 PM.
We then asked you to clarify that position multiple times. You response to the queries was to try and annectodatally show that a >.340 wOBA player was more rare at shortstop than a >5 run defender. We all asked why it should matter, as long they had equal overall value. And then you started getting defensive, and insulting Azru (who insulted you back), once you realized that your initial position was on this ice.
Then at 10:51 July 20th, Azru posted the links about aging curves.
Than at 11:28, July 20th, I then restarted the discussion down at the bottom and asked you this:
Why does scarcer equal more valuable? If a player saves 10 runs, how does he contribute to winning games any less than a player who gains 10 runs?
You then responded:
But the player who gains 10 runs is harder to find (i.e. scarce) than the player who saves 10 runs. It’s simple economics: A good is more valuable if the demand is higher than the supply. It’s price will go up as the demand exceeds the supply so the good has more "value" to the seller because there are fewer like goods available.
And
Assuming Ryan is going to be a +10 SS for the next three years running is an extremely favorable assumption. Especially since Tango’s analysis indicates that he will begin to decline at age 28 (next season). If he’s not at least a +10 defender, it’s going to be very difficult for him to be anywhere near a 2 win player because his bat provides him little to no value at all. Will Escobar begin to decline too? Yes, but his bat will continue to provide value for at least 2-3 more years, which makes it extremely likely he will be worth 5-6 more wins over that time frame than Ryan will be*.
I then responded to the first quote by saying:
Why would a team pay more for an offensive minded shortstop than a defensive minded one? That’s just bad business. Like AZ said, it doesn’t matter how a player derives his value if they are in the same population.
Which effectively shuts down the crux of your value argument. However, your second argument was a good one, but it also came completely out of the blue and was not part of your initial position. While we were still arguing with your initial and conveluted point about scarcity, you were on to aging curves.
It definitely appeared that you were intentionally trying to trip us up. Then when me, Azru and prophetjohn told you that your initial point, the one you were arguing, was not actually validated until a day and a half later, you said:
because you guys can’t pick up what I’m putting down early on and I have to spell it out like I work for Sesame Street, that means I’m wrong, when I was right all along? Go take a long leap off a short bridge then.
Now are you still going to tell me that your arguments were honest and pure the entire time, and that you were just vainly struggling against the arrogant vivaelpujols and Az. Or maybe, your argument evolved over time, and we were left arguing your initial point while you could insult us for not seeing something that wasn’t initially there.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I really didn't mean that as an insult...
I’m just saying I’ve seen both you and AZ come over as let’s call it “overly-confident” at times. You both are well versed in sabr’s, and have a right to be a little arrogant about it. As I said I’m fond of each of you, and the community is richer with your presence.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I agree I may have come across as arrogant
just that it really wasn’t my intent to do so. I don’t think that Az and Viva are trying to be arrogant either, I just think we sit on opposite sides of the fence on the issue.
All I’m trying to get is a concession that we shouldn’t be determining player “value” using UZR numbers as the gospel for defense because they aren’t as precise as offensive metrics like wOBA, so we shouldn’t be representing that they are by saying that wOBA is the offensive component and UZR is the defensive component of their “value”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I wonder if there would be value in taking...
a percentage of UZR (based somehow off of a margin of error) and use that number to estimate value. Perhaps .75 * UZR/150. That makes +/- 20 player +/- 15. This may be pointless because UZR doesn’t necessarily overrate good defenders and underrate bad defenders (a +5 player per UZR may actually be a +10 player).
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 22, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
reporting both numbers separately
with error bars might be your best bet. A little harder to digest, but not too bad. The errors should be uncorrelated so you could easily propagate them through, but then you just get big error bars on your total value calculation.
by brackenthebox on Jul 22, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll take Azru's debate.
He is saying that properly regressing past UZR data can be predictive of future performance. There has been shown to be a correlation of UZR in Colin’s article linked above… that essentially proves that it can be predictive, to a certain degree. Just not as high as offensive measurements for the reasons that you have mentioned.
When you say “UZR is not predictive” that cannot be true because the question isn’t a yes or no answer. Previous years of UZR is predicitve of future defensive talent… to a certain degree. Just like offensive measurements are predictive to a higher degree. I don’t know why it is either/or with you.
And in terms of player valuation, it doesn’t really make a difference. If you give a confidence level of +/- .20 points of wOBA and a +/- 5 runs on UZR (numbers pulled out of ass, btw), that holds true for all players… ones with good and bad UZR’s alike.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
And in terms of player valuation, it doesn’t really make a difference. If you give a confidence level of +/- .20 points of wOBA and a +/- 5 runs on UZR (numbers pulled out of ass, btw), that holds true for all players… ones with good and bad UZR’s alike.
But the people who state “X player is worth X WAR” aren’t giving a confidence level, are they? They are simply stating that the runs from wOBA are EQUAL to the runs from UZR (when they aren’t, because the confidence level is completely different), essentially implying that we can measure defense with the same confidence as offense, which isn’t true (again, the confidence level is much higher for offense than for defense) If those people were giving a confidence level when discussing WAR calculations of value, I wouldn’t have near as big of a problem with this issue, but they don’t, and by not doing so they completely misrepresent the measurements of a players ability so that people who don’t understand where those numbers come from think they are equally precise when that isn’t the case.
UZR isn’t predictive as a metric — you have to regress it just like you do wOBA, and when you do, you find that the R2 for UZR isn’t anywhere near what it is for wOBA. So why are they treated with the same level of predictive nature when calculating WAR? Shouldn’t we be noting this somewhere? We have a whole slew of people who aren’t statistically inclined fooled into thinking that the measurements put forth in value calculations have the same precision, when they’re not. We’re simplifying it so it’s easier to use, but when we do that we’re also misrepresenting the abilities of players. I find this to be an egregious offense, because of the error bars associated with it, apparently you think it’s ok to have a range of a full win for UZR and less than .5 of a win for wOBA (going off the numbers you pulled out of your ass) and calling them the equal in terms of value. Don’t you agree that’s a bit ridiculous?
Again, so I’m not misunderstood, UZR isn’t worthless — it does provide some value. But like I said in my opening reply, when people use it to calculate a player’s ability or value I have a problem with it because the correlation isn’t high enough to be doing that with an acceptable level of accuracy by statistical modeling standards.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Excellent points
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I just feel like we're doing
sabermetric analysis a disservice by not meeting acceptable statistical modeling standards when using data. I hate to see that because I think saber analysis is a very valuable tool for player valuation and I hope that soon we can say that we can measure both offense and defense with a similar amount of precision. I’m just pessimistic that it’s going to happen over a similar or relevant (in baseball terms) range, like a half season or full season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm sorry
But I still don’t understand. I know that UZR is less predictive than wOBA, but it’s equally un-predictive for players with good UZR’s as well as bad UZR’s.
If you have a +5 UZR run defender, and the standard error for UZR is 5, than you are as sure that he is a 0 run defender as you are that he is a 10 run defender.
Similarly, if you have a -10 run defender, you can be equally sure that he is a -5 run defender as you are that he is a -15 run defender going forward.
When you say:
I find this to be an egregious offense, because of the error bars associated with it, apparently you think it’s ok to have a range of a full win for UZR and less than .5 of a win for wOBA (going off the numbers you pulled out of your ass) and calling them the equal in terms of value.
I’m not actually calling them equal in value. If WAR was a counting stat (meaning, not compared to average), that I would be. However, UZR, as a component of WAR, is based against average, so the variance has to apply equally to all types of players.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok
variance has to apply equally to all types of players.
Does it though? That’s really my question. Does the variance for a SS and a LF compare? We’re adjusting them for position to help us compare them as players, but is the UZR variance for Adam Dunn and Brendan Ryan equal over the same sample size? I don’t know, so I’m simply asking the question.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Colin Wyers did a study
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/how-reliable-is-uzr/
I’m sure you have read it. He concludes that IF UZR is slightly more predictive than OF UZR, however the difference is only .10 points of R, which isn’t huge (at least to my understanding). So yes, people should be giving a slightly wider range to OF WAR then IF WAR, but the difference isn’t huge, mabye 3-4 runs.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
That link is an excellent read (I actually had not seen that before), and I agree with it’s conclusions — hopefully with better raw data we can diminish the difference to near zero. Now…
If I concede that we can measure past value to a reasonably accurate extent, will you concede my point that we can’t predict future value to a reasonably accurate extent? I think, given all the data that has been presented in this conversation, that that’s a reasonably accurate analysis, correct?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I guess I'll just have to take your word for it
Because you absolutely have no proof of this that will stand up to any statistical relevance without outside sources of data.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
So you think that when evaluation defensive ability
We shouldn’t look at UZR at all?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 21, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Where did I say this? That’s the absolute furthest thing from what I’ve said.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What are you trying to say?
Please keep it short and concise.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 21, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Please re-read my original post word-for-word.
Short enough for you?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Case in point:
You obviously skipped this part of my post because there’s no way you could have read it and inferred what you did.
Does it tell us some things? Yes, it does. Does it tell us everything? No, it does not. Can it help us determine how good a player is on defense? Sure, but you need other sources of information, as well as UZR’s info, to get a good handle on how talented a player is at defense. I do think it’s the best metric we have for measuring defense, but that sure doesn’t mean I think that we should use it as a measuring stick to determine player value, which is essentially what MGL is saying in his first comment on that post:
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
MGL seems to be saying
we can’t really use UZR as a measure of a player’s fielding performance, because it is not a metric that uses accurately measured data. So, assigning WAR values to UZR is kinda spurious, really.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Which is really
what my argument has been over the last 5 days in 2 different threads. I don’t know why others have taken this as a bone of contention with me when it’s clearly the way that a lot of sabermetricians feel about UZR.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm probably being semantically vague in that statement
I perhaps mean “value” instead of “performance”, but I’m not totally sure :-).
I do think UZR is as useful as any defensive metric we’ve got, but I think it should be compared to +/-, plus scouting/eye reports to evaluate defence, and I think we’re getting into sticky territory when we try to say “player X is a 5 win player” when a lot of that value is defensive.
That is, I’m a lot happier with the evaluation of Adam Dunn as “above average” when the only thing that’s reduced his excellent offensive output to make him a 2-3 win player over his career is his almost historically bad UZR numbers, than I am to evaluate Brendan Ryan as an “above average” player when the vast majority of his value comes for a small sample size of his SS defence. It is entirely believable, to me, that Dunn loses 20 runs per season with his crappy defence, but even if he does, his positive value from his bat (which I believe to be relatively accurately and predictively measured by stats) balances it out and slightly more. Ryan needs his small-sample UZR (which, incidentally, ranks him as pretty much a historically top-5-percentile shortstop) to be accurate for his 2-3 valuation to be valid, and I think that the measurement of his defence is more likely to be awry (and more than likely on the high side, given his historically high rating).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
No more Ank in CF
Can we please just pencil in Rasmus as the Everyday center fielder and relegate Ankiel to left field?
Can we call the Thurston/Stavinoha experiment over with already?
And call up Allen Craig? He is becoming Memphis’s version of the Swiss Army DeRosa. Craig couldn’t possibly be worse than those two and, perhaps, might be a bit better. Thurston and Stavinoha have proven themselves to be below average and a drag on the club. Neither should ever play in left field or third base.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
+1 on Craig
What does the guy have to do to get a shot? I mean how much worse than Stavinoha can he be? Really?
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
who knows what they are doing
its TLR you know
if you believe MLEs
he’s really no better. But I’d like to see him have a shot, at least he has some upside. Stav is a career minor leaguer, and will always be that.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
And how about Duncan?
Never one to buy into the nepotism charge, I now wonder whether Duncan is getting the benefit of the doubt when he should be regaining his form at Memphis. I have never seen such inept ABs over such a protracted period. It is painful to watch.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
You know, heathen...
it really is!
Seriously though, it’s getting absurd. Every time Dunc comes up, we have to listen to Al tell everyone how he’s “just caught in between, you know, late on the fastball and ahead of the changeup.” The fact that we’re subjected to such comments on such a repeating basis should be reason enough alone to see less Duncan.
Obviously we’d all love to have old(er) school Dunc out there mashing and getting on base, but I think it’s pretty clear that that trophy-humping ship has sailed.
by goodymobb on Jul 21, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
On the plus side though
He’s still walking at a pretty good rate for a guy who hasn’t put good wood on anything in the last 6 weeks. It’s amazing to me that pitchers are being so careful with him when he’s done everything in his power to prove that he can’t hit a ball to the warning track anymore. He’s hitting a paltry .228 and still on-basing at .330 this season. You have to admit that’s a pretty impressive walk rate for a guy who can’t hit himself out of a wet paper bag.
Ankiel, on the other hand….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Everyone calm down
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
And hit a homer
The man hits like an outfielder when you play him out there (minor sample size issues).
this is not as crazy as it seems.
next year, boog is likely going to be our starting SS. we need to have somebody on our team who can step in if boog takes a pitch off his elbow in the first and not embarrass the club. unless you want to see skip schumaker, emergency shortstop, we are going to have to carry one of tyler greene or brian barden. they are really the only two players who could be a backup SS. if you have to carry one of these guys, you want them to be defensively flexible. if barden takes a couple of innings at a corner outfield position, i say good for him.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
barden also isn't as embarassing with the bat
which makes him at least vaguely useful as a PH.
However, this should all be moot – I want Escobar!!!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I hear ya...
I am freakin’ THRILLED when Dunc works a walk.
Ready for a true story? Here you go:
My buddy and I are at Sunday’s game in the Legend’s Club (decent seats, but you can’t beat the all-inclusive tickets, especially when you can score them for half price). Anywho, we’re watching the game and admiring Piniero’s effectiveness, coupled with the offense’s ineptitude when Duncan comes to the plate.
So there’s this older gentlemen (probably mid-late 50s) keeping a book next to us. Nice guy, minding his own business just watching the game and keeping score. Anyway, as soon as Duncan is announced, he marks a “K.” No kidding. Doesn’t call attention to it at all…he’s not looking for reinforcement for his funny scoring joke in any way, shape, or form. He is legitimately convinced that Dunc will K and that’s that. Well, Dunc proceeds to K looking and the guy doesn’t bat an eye. He just moves on to the next hitter’s place on his scorecard. Unbelievable.
Actually, I’d almost give him better odds of doing something positive if he just went up there with the “take a walk” mentality and didn’t even give himself the opportunity to “get caught in between.”
LOL.
What would make that story even better is if the guy, when Dunc came to the plate, carefully put aside his pencil, pulled a ballpoint pen out of his pocket, wrote down “K” and then put the pen back in his pocket.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
funnier if the older gentleman
was Dave Duncan.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
He saves the ball point pen for when Ankiel steps to the plate.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Did the older gentleman mark a "K" or a backwards "K"?
And, can somebody tell me the difference between “backward” and “backwards.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Neither, which was weird.
So genuine scorekeeping question:
I’ve always scored strikeouts either “K” or “backwards K” (for the looking variety). This guy was circling K’s. Is that another way to denote the “looking strikeout?”
I didn’t get a good look at his card (I didn’t wanna creep him out staring at his lap), so I don’t know if he was doing all of his Ks with circles or what. Dunc’s K that I’m thinking of was definitely the backwards variety.
On your “backward vs. backwards” question, I’ll defer, thank you.
I have always used the "K" or "backwards K" for the looking variety, too.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yes
I used to have a coach who scored them this way and it always drove me nuts.
And I believe it’s “backward”
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm going with "backwards"
just for the sake of arguing and because, right or wrong, that’s how I say it. does the ‘s’ make it the action of being backward?
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
Even the experts don't seem to know
http://www.askoxford.com/asktheexperts/faq/usage/backward
Either as an adverb, “backward” as an adjective
by brackenthebox on Jul 21, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I just think is sounds dumb to say "backward K"
so I win
(in my world, where I make all the rules)
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
I actually agree with you
but if I’ve learned anything on this site, it’s that I can’t trust my eyes (or ears in this case). I’ve only heard “backward k” and “backwards k” a few hundred times in my life. AskOxford has taken into account every single time the words have been used ever in the history of man.
by brackenthebox on Jul 21, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
i like "backwards"
of course, my mom always used to make fun of me for saying “anyways”.
i would have loved to hear the guy swearing if he had written the K down wrong
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually,
I circle the outs in an inning, so that’s what he could be doing.
Yep, every Hall of Famer did something unique. Mike Schmidt played with his hat sideways. Roberto Clemente chewed other people's fingernails. Tris Speaker was Japanese. Lou Boudreau rode a dolphin into the batter's box. Nap Lajoie would only use John Wilkes Booth's dismembered leg as a bat. And he corked it. Johnny Mize was from the future. - FJM
I do, too.
BUT, I write the out number and circle that.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Further clarification
If a batter strikes out, I write “K” and then the out number and circle the out number. It would look something like this: K (1)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah, he wasn't doing that...
It was just a circle around the K, if memory serves.
And the more I think about it, the more I’m pretty sure he didn’t have any backward(s) Ks.
I got one, too
I was at sunday’s game as well, also in the all-inclusive seats. There were probably 6 kids between the ages of 8 and 10 sitting behind us. Now these kids had to be the most baseball-savvy 8 year olds that I have ever seen. They’re debating who should hit in the two spot, the virtues of the pitcher batting eighth, etc. Really impressive stuff.
Anyway, Duncan comes up in the first. They are on this guy MERCILESSLY. One kid says, “Well crap, Duncan’s gonna strike out.” another kid’s yelling, “Hey Duncan! I can predict the future! You’re back on the bench in three pitches!”
Sure enough. They were right.
by Jhusk on Jul 21, 2009 10:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
HA
There were some little Dunc little haters in my section too. Funny!
And when TLR subbed Ank later in the game and Ank made a running catch (fairly routine, but still), the little shavers exclaimed in unison “No way Duncan gets to that one!”
On this...
He’s hitting a paltry .228 and still on-basing at .330 this season. You have to admit that’s a pretty impressive walk rate for a guy who can’t hit himself out of a wet paper bag.
Same goes for Thurston who’s batting .231 with a .331 OBP. Compare those with Ludwick (.332), Ankiel (.279), Rasmus (.320), and Ryan (.313). All of these guys play better defense and/or hit for more power, but there is no question this team is lacking in on base ability.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
If not on-base ability, then at least on-base production
I think we all know Luddy can muster better than .332, and Rasmus almost certainly could, too.
And at one time, I’d say Ank can manage much better than .279, but now is not that time, no it is not.
Yeah...
I’ll give you that we could easily expect Luddy, Rasmus and Ankiel to bump their OBP’s up by .030 – maybe even by year end. Still it’s an ugly list to look at!
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Very true.
It’s our great weakness. Maybe if we didn’t swing at the first pitch so often…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
but but but
sometimes the 1st pitch is the only strike you’ll see the entire at bat!
(if that’s the case, well, take the effin’ walk and don’t swing at the junk)
What the hell happened in May?
That’s really the question. This team was leading the majors in OBP for the month of April and then things fell of a fucking cliff.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
this is a team that last year
seemed to overachieve greatly in that respect, OBP. But, on the other hand, if you overachieve with consistency, isn’t it just achieving? I can’t wait until I’m the GM and hitting coach for this team. Duncan, you just keep doing your thing, and I’ll find you another Jo-El out there on the market on the cheap.
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
On the plus side
DeRosa’s usually been a good OBP player, and his two dingers last night has me convinced that the wrist injury (usually a power-sapper) isn’t a major issue – hopefully pitchers will therefore keep being careful around him and he’ll keep drawing walks…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
That obp is what is keeping him in the lineup, IMO
and what makes him a better option than Ankiel, again IMO.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I too think he has been a better option...
than Ank in the past due to his patience/batting eye, but IF Ank starts showing some power again (he swung the bat extremely well last night) his power/defense/speed may make him a better option than Duncan who is either going to strike out or walk in 80% of his PA’s right now.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed,
and, hopefully, last night was a sign of improvement, not just a one night aberation on Ank’s recent trend.
I will say, however, that watching the three against the D’Backs this weekend Ankiel looked like he was making progress. He was, at least, not striking out every time and he did put one to the track Sunday. I hope, then, that last night’s “outbreak” is a continuation of that trend and that he is, finally, getting straightened out.
by ArkansasTravs on Jul 21, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we all do...
of course it seems in early June we were saying the same thing(s). The swing that he broke his bat on last night was the hardest I’ve seen him swing in a LONG time.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Yeah. he hit awesome a while back.
Was it in Florida? I’m having a hard time remembering. But he hit like 2 hrs in a game or something.
Just looked it up. It was Florida and he almost hit for the cycle (a single short).
Jeez. He went 8 for 13 in that series with 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. Maybe we should talk the Fish in to taking him off our hands…
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I'm astonished, watching
these games and realizing that our opponents don’t know how futile Dick ‘n’ Dunc are right now. Didn’t one team give Ank an IBB a week or two ago? If I’m the other manager, I get a warm happy feeling every time I see one of those guys batting FIFTH. Really, I know TLR is doing everything he can to get these guys back on track, but he’s making himself look foolish at this point.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
At this point,
shouldn’t we bat Rasmus fifth and DeRosa or even Yadi (despite the double play threat) second?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah I agree
And like MdRedbird said, if I’m the opposing manager and I look at the lineup and see a 3, 4, 5 of Albert, Lud, and Ank/Dunc, well, that’s about the time I make a big fat mental note to “pitch around” Albert AND Lud in a tight situation.
I think I like DeRo in the 2 hole anyway. I’d be cool with Rasmus in the 5 spot. And it’s been discussed before, but moving Colby down a little would give him the opportunity to run too, which would open up chances for straight steals, hit and runs, etc. Colby in the 5 spot, where he can use his gap power, work a walk, steal a base, etc., then he’s on 2nd and in scoring position with a good contact guy Yadi hitting 6th. That way we might actually score some runs once we get past the 3 and 4 hitters.
When Duncan is in the lineup...
I want him in the two hole (in a perfect world Duncan ONLY plays vs. righties). This is the only place he fits right now outside of the 9-spot.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd be alright with that IF he goes up there
looking for the walk. I really don’t want him swinging….
There was just a story on the P-D website where Dunc was quoted as saying something like “pitchers are messing with my head…I want to hit a fastball so bad and I haven’t seen one.”
The dude is lost up there. I really, really don’t want him swinging, which would be a risky (at best) way to approach an at bat. Tough call.
but...
if you go with the traditional thinking, the #2 spot should see plenty of strikes. I don’t know if that thinking is actually accurate or not, but I’d hate to send Duncan into a situation with the thought of taking a walk if he’s mostly likely going to see 3 strikes within the first 3-5 pitches.
Yeah, why
waste some perfectly hittable strikes on Dunc when you could send a good hitter (or at least an average one) into that spot and really benefit?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like that idea of Rasmus hitting 5th.
1. Schu 2. DeRosa 3. Albert 4. Luddy 5. Rasmus 6. Yadi 7. Pitcher spot 8. Ank/Dunc 9. BRyan
I really like the idea of some hit-and-run opportunities with Rasmus and Yadi hitting back-to-back.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
has DeRosa gotten a hit yet?
I like him in the 2 spot too, and don’t doubt the hits will come, but when?
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
that could possibly be a grammar fail
but i confused myself trying to think it through
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
haha
I had softball, so didn’t get to watch. YOU SUCK DeROSA
(maybe this will keep the hits coming)
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
I almost prefer Rasmus to hit behind Yadi
but I’m not entirely sold on it.
Rasmus of late (well, before the all-star break) was hitting the crap out of the ball. With Schu and DeRosa (even Ryan) getting on base for Albert, I kinda like the idea of Luddy and Yadi getting on base in front of Rasmus.
Like I said, I’m not entirely sold on this idea especially since Yaid grounds into so many DPs. But, in theory and on paper, I wouldn’t be upset. Then again. Putting Dunc or Ank behind Rasmus kind of lessens the pitches he’d probably see. Hell, hitting the pitcher 7th is probably a better option……..heh
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
You like that?
I didn’t know if I could sneak that through or not. It might just be crazy enough to get Tony to try it. He gets his precious double lead-off with Ryan hitting 9th, and the black hole of Ankiel can do the least damage to our lineup if they hit 8th. I bet our pitcher’s spot is hitting competitively with them anyway. Personally I would rather see Wainwright at the plate than Duncan or Ankiel right now.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
i kind of like it
again, we have a group of pro hitters in there, and i’m not sure it makes that much of a difference who hits where. I kind of like the idea of Colby hitting with some RBI opportunities, plus adding a LH bat behind Albert and Lud. And honestly, I want Molina up there as much as possible. Hell, hit him leadoff and put Schu 2nd, just to take advantage of the L/R switch. We’re not going to have anybody run in front of Albert anyways, so why not put Yadi up there?
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Cardinals' No. 2 Batters
This is the most problematic aspect of TLR’s jump start via the no. 2 spot mentality. St. Louis no. 2 hitters have an OBP of .320 this season. That ranks twenty-second in MLB for OBP out that lineup spot. It’s abysmal. Nonetheless, those batsmen who have managed to reach base safely have scored 61 times this season, which is eleventh (but, counting ties, is sixth in MLB). Imagine if we had a .350 OBP out of that slot. This awful lineup construction is costing the club runs and Pujols RBIs. TLR might cost Albert Pujols the Triple Crown with his nonsensical lineups. If you want to “protect” Pujols, then get a man on first base in front of him.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
THAT is why i want to gouge my
Eyes out with a spoon when I see stavinoha and his .250 obp in the two slot.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 21, 2009 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Or Ankiel, or K-Greene, or (taking us down Memory Lane) Juan Encarnacion
TLR’s philsophy on the no. 2 slot costs the club runs and hurts their effort at winning.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
but still
going into last night, the dude had a .256 OBP. I was more upset with Nick batting in the 2 hole than I was with Razzums on the bench. Seriously, how can batting someone with a .256 OBP in front of Pujols be a good idea. This craptacxular OBP in front of APU has got to stop. And we wonder why this team has trouble scoring runs.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
it was the hometown lineup
TLR probably found out how many Stavinohas were in the crowd, and how they drove 200 miles uphill both ways.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
How did this information pertaining to Rasmuses traveling escape him on Opening Day?
Or the Freeses for that matter?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
at gametime they had only...
driven uphill one way, but heading uphill back home was so much easier since Stavy played.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
that's the thinking
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
this is maybe why adam dunn makes a bit of sense...
not that I think we can get him.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
This offense is terrible
With Wellie v. Wandy tonight and Oswalt tomorrow it feels like the sweep is inevitable.
Please prove me wrong Cardinals. I think Albert may need to put this team on his back again for a few days.
by OCCardsFan on Jul 21, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm much more worried about Wandy tonight
He might no-hit us if he walks Pujols every time he gets to the plate.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well, he is left-handed, right?
Parris and Burwell (I know, I know) were “debating” the merits of a 4 man rotation just a bit ago. With all the off-days in August, I’d seriously consider it if it meant not sending Welley out there every 5th day and putting the team in a 3-4 run hole early.
Or just use one of the youngsters, who we pretty much all agree would be at least as “effective” with upside.
Now, one of these is the logical choice and the other is some weird reactionary approach to the problem. Given past behavior, which is more likely?
It actually would make some sense to go with a combo
Why not let Walters or Boggs (probably the latter imo) take the 5th starter role but skip them whenever possible due to off days? Though you may also want to be a bit more careful with Carp’s and Waino’s pitch counts so they have something left for the postseason.
I'd take that.
Or hell, just figure that every 5th day you’re gonna basically split the start between 2 guys, with the long men in the bullpen instructed to be ready. I would take either Walters or Boggs vs. Welle/Thompson right now.
yes...
They have a lefty… a good lefty at that on the mound and we send up Toddie.
AccuScore gives us a 35% chance of winning. It’s more like 3.5% chance in my mind.
by redbird2006 on Jul 21, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
If your offense is as likely to get shut down...
as ours is tonight it’s probably a good time to pitch TW. Let one of the other four guys pitch on a night we might score 2+ runs.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Adam Dunn to fill the LF hole
one low-level pitcher would do it.
Please Mo. The offense is dying on the vine
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
Adam Dunn's defense is too bad
It would likely negate much or all of his offensive value.
Besides, the “Adam Dunn HR count vs. Natinals wins” race is still in full swing. He can’t leave Washington.
Dunn over Glaus
His defense isn’t any worse than Duncans a few years ago and we managed along to a world series. We can sub him out late and use him as a PH in the other games.
I’d love to see Dunn on the team.
by redbird2006 on Jul 21, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
This is not a good argument.
A run saved is as good as a run scored.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Sure a run saved is as good as a run scored, no doubt.
Do you really save exactly 1.000 runs by playing someone over Dunn? Does Dunn really cost his team 162 runs a year?
Put him in the outfield when Pinerio is pitching and there are 3 fly balls all night. Use him as a late inning pinch hitter. There are uses for Dunn where his bat far outweighs his defensive liability.
Like I said, we won with Duncan out there because Tony can optimize his play. We can do the same with Dunn.
by redbird2006 on Jul 21, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Adam Dunn in LF is like a zoo forcing an otter to spend half its day outside of water
He was meant to hit, not to field and should be set free in the AL.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 21, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
so should most the animals in the zoo
but I want to pay to go see them
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jul 21, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I dont know where you are getting I argued he costs his team 162 runs a year,
and he certainly doesn’t create that many in a season.
Dunn hasn’t been a 3 WAR player since 2005, and he is on pace to be a ~1.5 WAR guy this year. He makes $8 million a year.
I 100% agree that he is light years better than Dunkiel at the plate, and I love his approach. But he really is that bad on defense that he drains all that value. You or I out there in a lawn chair out there is about the same.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Where are you getting this negative 1.5 WAR data
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
its ~1.5 (roughly 1.5), not -1.5
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
But it is mostly because of his huge negative OF defensive numbers
I do not believe those numbers will stay at the same level when paired up with a superb CFer. I bet by the end of the season Nyjer Morgan will have monster UZR numbers because he is a superior CFer that will help with Dunn’s range.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
True, and it will be interesting to see if his value ramps up in the second half.
I just really think we would be (have been) better by moving Skippy to left and getting serviceable 2B (see Durham, Ray) for a much smaller figure.
FWIW, Fangraphs has Adam Dunn as 7.3 Runs above replacement (offensive only), 17th among MLB LFers.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
But he also has the 7th highest wOBA of OFer's in baseball
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Im an idiot, RAR includes defense
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
We probably should have shifted Skip to LF a long time ago...
and shifted Thurston to second, and brought up either Hoff or Barden as a platoon partner.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
And to your winning the World Series with Duncan in LF argument,
Wang in a toaster. Just because we overcame it doesn’t mean it was a good idea.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
When a Maaannnnnnnn loves a Toaster....
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
Dunn replacing Duncan is an improvement.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Dunn is the prototype #2 hitter
in a TLR lineup—power & high OBP. He’s gonna see lots of strikes.
Okay his defense is lousy, but he’s got CR playing next to him and Boog now plays short LF as our SS.
I don’t believe his overall contribution will be worse or even close to equal DunK/AnK. It will be a plus.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
I agree
Yes, he’s bad in the field. Yes, his defensive suckitude will cut into his overall productivity. But I still firmly believe that Dunn, on the whole, would be an upgrade over Dick or Dunc.
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
For sure
But that’s not saying much. You, 42 year old Ray Lankford, would be an upgrade over Dick & Dunc.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
True
I am still a stud.
However, Dunn’s OBP and power would provide a big boost to a team currently struggling to score runs. I know a run is a run is a run (prevented vs. scored) but it seems like – and this may just be my subjective take – that given our solid starting pitching, it may be worth more to us to be able to score (TWSS) more than a run or two a game. We are currently doing an OK job of preventing runs, right? (I ask because I genuinely do not know — baseball reference.com says we are 4th in the NL in Runs under pitching stats. Is that good or bad?)
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holy Shit - OT
baseball reference.com has Ryan Franklin’s ERA+ at 544! Can that be right?
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
That is correct, sir.
FWIW, he should be getting some run as a Cy Young candidate — at least as much as Brad Lidge got last year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
ERA+ of 544!
Am I confusing myself? I see on baseball reference.com that the highest ever “adjusted ERA+” was slightly over 290. No way Franklin is really a 544, right? I mean, Bob Gibson’s 1968 season was an ERA+ of 258. I love Franklin and all, but I just have a hard time believing that he is 2X better than the greatest Cardinal pitching season ever.
What am I missing?
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Dennis Eckersley's ERA+ for the 1990 season was 606
I would not judge ERA+ for relievers as same as ERA+ for starters because of the difference in innings pitched. That said, Franklin has been nearly as unhittable this year as Eck was in that campaign, he’s just walking more people. Eck only had 2 non-IBB walks that entire fucking SEASON in 75 innings.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think that highest ever ERA+ of 290 must just be for starters
There are definitely relievers who’ve had higher ones (Eric Gagne’s was 335 in 2003 when he didn’t blow any saves, and Rivera’s been over 300 a couple times). Not that an ERA+ of 544 isn’t awesome, but imagine how much more awesome a >300 ERA+ would be for a starter who does it for 200+ innings instead of 60-70.
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 21, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
You must be right about the starter thing.
As I scrolled through the list, I couldn’t find any relievers.
Incidentally – and I know everyone will love this – guess who is 11th ALL TIME in single season ERA+. Just take a wild guess. I’ll give you a hint: its this season.
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Dan Haren?
OK, where’s my f***ing cookie?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That can't be right
Surely I’d at least know the name of a person having a historically good season.
You must be right about the starter thing.
As I scrolled through the list, I couldn’t find any relievers.
Incidentally – and I know everyone will love this – guess who is 11th ALL TIME in single season ERA+. Just take a wild guess. I’ll give you a hint: its this season.
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
He Who Shall Not Be Named
but is a former Athletics, former Cardinals pitcher?
by longhornscardinals on Jul 21, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
At least we did our part..
to help on Saturday.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Ahhhh - I gotcha now.
Actually, when I posted it I remember thinking, “man, that’s weird that he saw Matthewson but not Haren”
Little slow today!
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Slacker
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 21, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you
We’re not getting any value from our LF situation right now, so I think rolling the dice that Dunn doesn’t absolutely murder us on defense is a good gamble to make. His bat in front of or behind Pujols would certainly lead to more runs being scored, I don’t think anyone can quibble with that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It's an interesting idea
How much worse is he than Duncan in LF? Surely, his overall value is higher than Duncan’s and maybe even Ankiel’s (?).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Has to be.
I have no idea, but it just has to be.
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Dunn vs. Duncan
Over 8000 innings in LF, Dunn is a -12 by UZR/150.
Over 1903 innings in LF, Duncan is a -8.3 by UZR/150.
If you assume a +/-5, they could be essentially indifferent defensively, and Dunn brings about 2 wins of difference with the bat. It’s actually probably closer to 3 wins this season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
At this moment,
just about any position player on the Cardinals’ AAA or AA squads would probably be an offensive upgrade on those 2.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
just imagine if we still had Rolen
we could put Dunn out there in the corner and tell him to just worry about catching stuff in that little part of left field.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Considering how bad the play has been in LF,
Dunn’s 0 total value due to his defense would be an improvement over the -1 to -3 values we’re getting now, and he’s worth three wins on offense.
If he’s available for cheap, we’d be crazy not to roll the dice that he doesn’t kill us on defense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I doubt his Defense
Would be any worst than Chris Duncan’s. Most of Dunn’s poor OF UZR numbers are due to poor range. If had a superior CFer to help with his range he would most likely be an equal to Chris Duncan in the field.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
He hasn't ever played
with a CF who had great range, so you might be right.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I am curious how
Nyjer Morgan helps Dunn’s UZR numbers since he is a plus CFer.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
OF interrelation
Is there any analysis to back this up? How many balls that are within an average LFer’s range, which Dunn doesn’t get to due to his poor range, could be caught by a superb CFer? I have to think very, very few.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
You are just thinking the CFer is playing straight up
But think of shifts in the OF. If a CFer shifts left to cover more LF ground and you have an average RFer in terms of range. The CFer could cover additional ground on the left side while still maintaining his RF side since he doesn’t have to cover the RFer also
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I was, but wouldn't that hamper defensive shifts to batter tendancies?
Additionally, I wonder if anyone has actually looked at this scenario. Does a superb center fielder have the ability to field balls that Dunn cannot get to but that are within the range of an average left fielder? I realize these would be on what I’ll refer to as the “outer boundaries” of average range, but surely the number of those balls that Rasmus, for example, could field on the fly that could be fielded on the fly by an average right fielder but not Adam Dunn are not that numerous.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
To me
the only reasons NOT to get Adam Dunn are these:
- The Nationals want to much in return for him.
- He doesn’t help this team against left handed pitching.
That’s it. I have concerns about his defense, but I think the Cardinals can weather that storm for a guy who would be a 3 win player on offense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
3 win player on offense - calc?
Fangraphs has him at 7.3 RAR, 17th among MLB LFers. Did you mean without the positional adjustment?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
RAR factors in defense
I said he was a 3 win player on offense, which he will be easily over the full season even if you adjust for position. He’s at 22 Runs so far this season and a positional adjustment of -5 would leave him at around 17 so far. I would assume that he’ll be worth at least 13 runs in the second half of the season on offense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Im an idiot
I thought RAR was offense only
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Quick question
How many runs would batting someone with an OBP above .320 create creat the rest of the way?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I don't know how to calculate that
Does anyone have a model that gives them runs created at certain intervals of OBP? Like if you improve OBP by .40 points it’s worth how many runs?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think it would depend on SLG as well
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Slugging would add runs as well
but shouldn’t we be able to get a rough estimate of in the increase in OBP ~ increase in runs?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Speaking of trades...
Mo made the trade everyone wanted. He got Derosa. It sucks that we traded for an injured player. I find it admirable that Derosa is going to play through the injury but now I wish we still had Perez and the Brewers had gotten him instead.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
Isn't Perez hurt too
I heard Perez was going on the DL cause of his Heel and could have season ending surgery cause of it
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes me feel a little better if it's true. But they still have Perez next year and we have to sign Derosa and pay him to boot.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
-1 for feeling better about someone ending their season
We aren’t Cubs fans
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
by all4tookie on Jul 21, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
he only reasons NOT to get Adam Dunn are these:
The Nationals want to much in return for him.
He doesn’t help this team against left handed pitching.
he isn’t a lefty killer but he hits lefties just fine. I’d say he helps, because his wOBA vs LHP will be way higher than Dunc, Ank or Stavinoha’s. And because it allows DeRosa to play 3B instead of Sucky Joe.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that he's better against lefties that what we have
but that Kearns and Murton would be better against lefties than Dunn would be and they would probably cost far less than Dunn would in terms of what we’d give up in trade. We’d be clear of Kearns next season and Murton is still cost controlled. That’s what I meant by that statement. I still think Dunn would be a great addition.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Example
Colby Rasmus has the 2nd Highest RF/9 of CFers in baseball of 2.7 and Duncan has the lowest RF/9 of LFer’s with a 1.5.
Nyjer Morgan’s RF/9 is also a 2.7 in CF with Dunn’s RF/9 1.7. Now Duncan has a UZR of RngR of -1.6 while Dunn’s is -10.2.
So even though Dunn has a higher range than Duncan he has most much negative value in UZR numbers because someone isn’t there to pickup the slack for him. Nyjer Morgan just joined the Nationals 15 games ago so hasn’t had a huge impact on Dunn’s numbers yet. But if I was a betting man I would bet that Dunn’s UZR numbers would not continue at a similar pace throughout the season.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
So, UZR is *that* interdependent amongst OFers?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Honestly... I don't know
But it is something that has been bothering me for awhile now
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 21, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
adam dunn is too sinister.
Our offense is more than ok against RHP. Aside from the legit complaints about his defense, his platoon splits run the wrong way.
Ops V. Lhp .748
V. Rhp 1.034
Let’s get a RH bat. That’s a lot of money and some terrible D to accept for a guy who hits from the wrong side.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 21, 2009 12:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
His career numbers are better
Career vs. LHP: .827 OPS in 1625 PA.
by pitchingandefense on Jul 21, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
OPS vs. LHP for..
Duncan: .650
Ankiel: .548!!
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
the Nats CFers routinely fall down while trying to catch the ball
Milledge, Harris, Dukes – they all suck. Actually, no, don’t suck: Milledge is sitll a little kid, Harris is what he’s going to be, and Dukes is what he’s going to be, which is better than the other options. Morgan is being forced into some work there, I think. What this all comes down to is this – Dunn would work well with this team, and even Ank in CF is an upgrade over those other guys. He’s a perfect player to hit behind (or, dare I suggest it because the moment I say anything other than Pujols And His Treatment is perfect) hits in front of Albert. Lets get Dunn.
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm confused...it thought you were comparing 3rd and LF
yet you used skippy’s stats at second
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
I think he was simply giving Skippy as a frame of reference.....
Not actually injecting him into the discussion as a LF or 3B option.
Fangraphs has an article on the players who take the most called strikes
Duncan is eighth in the Big League. He takes 33% of all pitches in the strike zone. One thing that is encouraging is that there are some pretty good hitters on that list. Not him, of course, but others.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chris-k-young
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
by heathen on Jul 21, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Rec
Only for this line:
Not him, of course, but others.
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 21, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Duncan cannot hit a curve or anything on the outside half of the plate
He has a better chance of the umpire calling them balls than hitting them.
by redbird2006 on Jul 21, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Or anything that isn't a fastball, pretty much.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
either
we need to make a trade for a significant bat or we need to call up walrus and see what he’s made of
current team can’t compete in post season
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I think it can
It’s just that a lot of stuff has to go right and judging by the past couple of seasons, that probably won’t happen. Dammit.
I do agree that we need to add something to the offense to increase the likelihood of the offense improving though
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
not sure current team can make postseason
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Jul 21, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm not either
but if they do, it’s three and out
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 21, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
That was my sentiment going into the '06 postseason
Thankfully, I was wrong.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah
i think we’ve filled our quota for 86 win championship teams for this century
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 21, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
err
83
86 was last year
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 21, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven't seen anything to say they can't.....
Doesn’t mean they will though.
All we need if for one more guy to start hitting. Whether that is Ankiel, or Duncan, or Glaus, or DeRosa…..just one of those guys, to go along with what AP, Luddy, Raz, and Molina are doing, and we’ll be fine.
As for those begging for a trade…..we made our trade for the year. We don’t have enough spare pieces, or extra $‘s to just keep making them. Before long, we’d have a bench that is being paid $20M this year, and that just isn’t feasible.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think it's just one guy
As Dan said in his post, we’ve been scoring 4.1 runs with only 6 guys hitting basically. You can’t assume that’s going to continue to happen. The Cards need at least replacement level or better offense out of the 3B and LF positions going forward. Ryan’s defense makes up for some of his offensive liabilities, but we can’t have huge offensive holes at 3B and LF and expect to compete for this division in September.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The past couple septembers have been ugly
and if we continue to get nothing from LF and 3b it’s likely to be another september collapse. I know the SP has been great but at some point we are going to need more offense, period.
More than one guy
Currently they have offensive and defensive sieves at two spots on the field. DeRosa should help at one or the other, but you can’t really keep giving at-bats to a sieve and not have it hurt you.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Sooner, why not get someone very cheap who'll help a lot?
One of the worst things of mozeliak’s tenure (so far) is that (apart from Thurston) we’ve been pretty bad at exploiting freely-available talent. Matt Murton won’t cost a big prospect, he’s still cheap and is probably at least an average left-fielder. Austin Kearns would cost nothing, we could even get the nats to eat some of the rest of his contract by giving up a pitching prospect. It sounds like Elijah Dukes (who is a genuinely good prospect) could be had for a pretty small amount. The Brewers just got Felipe Lopez for a pair of C-grade garbage prospects. Then there’s guys like Ray Durham who wouldn’t cost anything except a couple of million for the rest of the way. There’ve been arms like Chad Gaudin and Odalis Perez available for nothing this year who’re better than Wellemeyer.
“Making a trade” doesn’t necessarily mean dumping the future of the ball-club (Wallace, Jones) for a rental. We can add meaningful pieces that help our team now because we’re trotting out dreadful players (Dunc, Ank, Thurston, plus all the AAAA crap like Tyler Greene and Stavinoha we’ve seen this year) on a regular basis. Real, productive major leaguers ARE available cheaply at this point of the season, not the “impact bat” that TLR might want, but merely “league average” talent. Mozeliak’s inactivity, when we have so many spots on our regular lineup that are so easy to improve, is pretty galling, IMO. Just one or two wins added to our end-of-year tally will really bump up our playoff chances a lot, in a very close division.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
The Walrus and The Good China
Analogy alert!
We’ve all been worried that we don’t have any clean dishes (worthy LF/3B options) with which to eat the beef stroganoff (get decent offense). We have several options:
- Try to eat it out of our bare hands – do nothing useful and suffer for it
- Just use the dirty plates – continuing plugging Duncan and Ankiel in there, hoping it will get better
- Pour the stroganoff in a cup and eat it using salad tongs – put Thursty or a limited version Glaus out in LF just for the hell of it
- Pull out a paper plate and make do – Robinson and Barden can’t be that bad, right?
- Break out the plates still in the box that your wife swore she would never use because she hated the pattern, but you’ll be damned if you’ll get rid of them after spending 50 bucks on the set – we can actually call up Allen Craig, right?
- Those versatile soup bowls could definitely work, but they have a crack right down the middle and who knows when they’ll break – DeRosa’s wrist injury
- Borrow a set from your wife’s parents, knowing your mother-in-law will hold it against you for the next century – Dunn might be useful, but probably isn’t worth it
- Use the good china to eat Tuesday-night, leftover stew – call up Brett Wallace before he needs to be up here, when we have plenty of realistic options left
- I don’t know, maybe clean the frickin’ plates – get Ankiel healed, send Duncan to the minors; come back when you can actually hit
I think we’re asking too much by bringing up Wallace now and Dunn is not going to solve our problems any more than a quick look around the house & a little shuffling would do. Use the simple options we have available (Craig, maybe Freese, hopefully DeRosa doesn’t break down) and supplement with gap fillers like Robinson and Barden – they can’t be worse than what we’ve been getting. Send down the two coach’s sons to get righted and, most of all, get rid of the awful plate that lost its shine after the first month (Thurston).
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Jul 21, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
I'm hungry.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
are you saying Adam Dunn = mother-in-law?
I like a combination of dishwashing and soup bowls. Thing is, until everyone is 100% fib-free healthy, I don’t know how it’ll serve us down the stretch.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
No
If I was trying to say Adam Dunn = mother-in-law, my first thought would be, “Damn she’s really big & ugly!”
My thought there was that a mother-in-law (opposing GM) would look rather poorly upon her daughter’s deadbeat husband (Mozeliak) who would rather drive out of his way and look foolish to others (attempt a trade) to borrow simple plates (get someone who offers little real improvement) when all that was needed was to wash the ones in the sink (fix Dick’n’Dunk) or use the ones already available (our minor leaguers).
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
I thought the mother-in-law...
was the portion of the fan base that would be upset over the pieces we gave away when they become very useful down the road.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Mo as deadbeat husband... now there's something to photoshop...
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Maybe not NOW
But if we don’t bring out the good china in September, we are nothing but a bunch of miserly old biddies.
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw on the PD someone said that Strauss said the Cards are looking at Dunn.
So it must be true right?
Anyways, Dunn in LF would be awesome. If we can play Glaus in LF with only one arm Dunn would be fine as well.
3Pujols
4Dunn
4Ludwick
We just might have ten run everdays with that line-up. Not to mention with all the ground ball pitchers we have that is less fly balls for Big Country to run …ahem, walk down.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
With those two OBPs in front of Luds he should get a lot of oppurtunities to drive in some runs.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
Can't get past his comps at B-R
Top ten similar batters through age 28 for the Big Donkey:
Strawberry, Canseco, Killebrew, Colavito, Jackson, Glaus, Brunansky, Bonds, Maris, Powell.
I know his D is bad, but I can’t help but think Colby can make up for a small part of that.
And I find it hard to believe that replacing Dunkiel with a bat comparable to Harmon Killebrew or Rocky Colavito only adds one win to this team. Not with how much he’d impact the hitters around him.
by pitchingandefense on Jul 21, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
"Impact the hitters around him" - is he going to teach them how to better identify balls and strikes?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Sorry, but that's just a smart-ass and pretty unnecessary comment....
So Albert doesn’t “impact the hitters around him” in any way, shape, or form? Albert getting on base at like 45% doesn’t provide more opportunities to Lud? Albert waiting on deck in the midst of a ridiculous season doesn’t alter the opposing team’s strategy?
Insn't pitchinganddefense looking at
adding a bat comparable to Killebrew, Colavito or the others on that list is the benefit and “NOT the impact he’d have on the hitters around him”….i.e., the impact is irrelevant considering you’d be adding Harmon Killebrew to the lineup?
My problem with all4tookie’s comment is, IMO, he’s clipped what was written by pitchingfordefense and is then implying a different meaning.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I dunno...
And I find it hard to believe that replacing Dunkiel with a bat comparable to Harmon Killebrew or Rocky Colavito only adds one win to this team. Not with how much he’d impact the hitters around him.
Maybe you’re right…it does seem like more of pitching’s point was adding a guy similar to those comp’s IS the upgrade.
Either way, it seems an unnecessary comment.
Relax everyone, sorry to ruffle feathers. I took what he/she was saying at face value,
literally thinking he/she was implying that Dunn’s addition to the lineup somehow makes people around him better.
If he/she wasn’t implying that, my snarky comment was an attempt to get clarification on the point. How does he impact those around him then?
I do not subscribe to the thinking that Albert can magically make someone else better. He does, however, make their on-base contributions more valuable. If that was his/her argument, fine, but it seemed to me that he/she was implying that he actually made them better. And anyway, the “1-win” improvement we were talking about is a reference to WAR which is team-independent so already deals with that anyway. Also, the “protection” theory is certainly not a slam-dunk proposition.
To refute my snarkiness, maybe draw a comparison to Carp pointing out the flaw in A.D.A.M.‘s release point as tangible evidence of another player helping another get better. But the fact of the matter is that pitchinganddefense’s statement can be easily interpreted that a significant portion of Dunn’s value to the lineup would derive from his “impact on the hitters around him” which I wholeheartedly disagree with.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
So you really don't believe that our #2 and #4 hitters
see a disproportionate amount of fastballs to hit with Albert either on-deck or on base?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
This has been shown to be false
by numerous statistical models. There’s very little evidence that so called “protection” in the lineup can increase things like rate stats of a hitter. Sure, a guy might drive in more runs hitting behind a great hitter or score more runs hitting in front of a great hitter, but his overall offensive rate stats aren’t going to change due to a difference in the players hitting around him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That's my point
I should have clarified a little better, I suppose. I simply meant by replacing our current LF with someone who posts much greater OBP and SLG numbers, then the other hitters in the lineup are afforded the opportunity to hit more frequently with runners on base and runners in scoring position.
by pitchingandefense on Jul 21, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
In other words
his presence in the lineup will help the TEAM score more runs, but not necessarily help the guys hitting around him hit better.
I totally agree with this.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The obvious answer is that pitchers will try that much harder to get them out...
…and certainly the pitcher will walk them less (which isn’t a good thing for the offense). It has been thoroughly shown that impact of “protection” is minimal. You can find more information here via THT.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Huh, thanks for the info.
I sure wouldn’t have thought that to be the case, but I totally defer to your expertise.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
haha hardly expertise.
Expertise is chuckb and vivaelpujols and feloniusmonk, et al. Just a lot of reading and google for me. Baseball Between the Numbers, The Book, and www.beyondtheboxscore.com will blow your mind if you get into it. Much of Baseball Between the Numbers is freely available in preview form from the link.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Not a Big Deal
I haven’t posted here for long, but I have been a long time reader, and this is why. The posters here are knowledgeable and police themselves, just as goodymobb and Tackle Box are doing.
Having said that, I come here to gain knowledge from posters like all4tookie, who is extremely sharp with numbers. We disagree about the value of Adam Dunn though.
I think Dunn’s most direct value would be the damage he’d lend to the lineup, but I also think he impacts those around him, simply because the hitters behind him hit more often with someone on base. And I do subscribe to the theory that a pitcher throwing to a hitter with “Harmon Colavito” on deck is throwing his pitches under more stress, and will be more prone to making a mistake to the current hitter.
by pitchingandefense on Jul 21, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn like Pujols causes pitchers to alter their game plan.
You don’t want runners on in front of either one nor do you want to pitch to batters behind them with them on base.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
yes
Look at the strides that Zimmerman has made this year.
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
i believe they're interested
i’m not a fan of the deal, though. we can get the .5 – 1 WAR that he’d give us the rest of the season a lot cheaper elsewhere. if we had a DH or 1B slot open, it’d be another story. his defense is too bad for him to really be helpful
and word is the nats aren’t interested in dealing him anyway
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 21, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Seconded.
Skip → LF
Thurston/Hoffpauir → 2B
Dunkiel → Pine
There is your 1 WAR right there for free.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
booooooooooooooooooooooooooring
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 21, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. Dunn is the exciting choice.
If you just want a glove with a marginal bat bring up D Jones. His glove should be ready and he can hit as well as Ank/Dunc right now I would hope.
"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly
Also,
Stavinoha —> Memphis
Craig —> St. Louis
I think that would help add to the ~ 1 WAR total.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Sure, but Tony will never do it
call it conviction, stubborness, or outright foolishness, but Tony will not bring himself to scrap the Schumaker experiment.
after that turn on the double play last night
I’m foolish enough to call the experiment a success
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
here's a question for y'all
just looking at FanGraphs value tables for Schu – he’s broken the -15 UZR/150 barrier now (which probably makes him at least a 1 win player this year, if we’re down that route) but I’m slightly baffled by his value calculations at the bottom – he’s got -0.3 runs for his positional adjustment, but he’s played nearly 600 innings at 2B (a tough defensive spot) and 10 innings at CF (also tough), but less than 100 innings in the corner outfield spots. How come he’s losing value for positional adjustment then?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't know why this keeps coming up.
the nationals’ gm said “we’re not trading dunn. that’s as definitive as i can be.” so unless you think he’s lying or something, i don’t think dunn’s an option.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Personally, I think he's lying.
Dunn is far from an untouchable commodity and he’s not a seat filler. What other benefit would he hold for the Nats than as a trade chip?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I think he would definitely be moved for a nice prospect
not Wallace nice, but a nice B+ prospect should get it done. That GM just can’t believe they will contend next year.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
well, yes, it definitely doesn't
make any sense for dunn to be completely off the table, but it’s washington. not the greatest run organization ever.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
its Washington
the town is based on lies. Dunn is available.
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
If we want a Nationals OF...
then we should look at Josh Willingham. He’s cheaper and is capable of getting on base vs. LH pitching (career .391 obp vs. LH).
I've tried to find a reason to disagree with you
but I haven’t found it yet. I’m actually scratching my head about how he ended up on Washington in the first place. He only played 102 games last year for the Marlins, was he injured or something?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
the Hammer seems streaky
not sure he’s an everyday hitter. but, he’s the kind of player (meaning, marginally good) that TLR would love to platoon with
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
"platoon with"
is that some dirty sexual reference that I’m not familiar with?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
...it is now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I thought maybe it had something to do with...
a plate and spooning. Maybe spooning at home plate (which doesn’t have to be sexual).
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
if we can combine this with solanus' dinner plate metaphor
We might have something here…
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Injury concerns
I thought some were worried about his durability. Does he have a balky hip, too? Or am I misremembering? Injury issues aside, I’d be interested in both Willingham and Cody Ross as a LF solution. I don’t know what the asking price would be, but Ross especially seems to me to be a practical acquisition. He hits LHPing to the tune of .272/.356/.598/.954 and plays a serviceable outfield defensively (I think, but didn’t look up).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I would love to have Ross
I just don’t think the Marlins will move him till the offseason. He is arb-eligible after this year so he is as good as gone in the offseason. Hopefully the Fish will stink it up over the next week and they will look to sell him off.
i would infinitely prefer either of these guys to Dunn.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
*Iff* we pick up dunn
2 dunn
3 pujols
4/5 luddy/colby
dunn gets on incredibly well… keep him in front of pujols… luddy and colby not so much, but they got some pop and can rake when they get hot
I'm not necessarily advocating this but..
Dunn, Pujols, Colby, Lud would be a L, R. L, R combination that would be an absolute meat grinder for a manger to maneuver though the last couple of innings.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
All things being equal
I would recommend that you keep it Dunn, Pujols, Ludwick, Rasmus (not that I’m advocating aquiring Dunn). The two lefties are currently batting poorly versus southpaws and having them means the opposing manager can simply bring in a lefty, shut down Dunn, avoid Pujols, shut down Razzums, and depart before getting to Luddy. I hope Colby does better in his platoon splits, but he has been awful against same-sided hurlers.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
i wonder
what dunn’s walk rates are vs lefties and righties
Dunn's walks
2009
vs RHP – 61 BBs / 276 PA = .221
vs LHP – 12 BBs / 119 PA = .101
Career
vs RHP – 643 BBs / 2831 PA = .227
vs LHP – 227 BBs / 1625 PA = .140
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
true
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
he's been awful because he hasn't seen that many
in the minors he hit lefty’s just fine. if Tony would leave him alone up here he’d do the same
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I am just wondering if the light would go ooff and Tony would put Dunn in the 2 hole
I may be totally off base here, but it seems since Walker left Tony has been more about putting people in front of Pujols to try to get them hot instead of putting the highest OBP there.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
If we had Dunn playing every day
there wouldn’t really be anyone on the team that falls into the category of “needing to warm up” except maybe DeRosa and having him bat there isn’t the worst thing in the world especially against lefties.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
wow
who would think an injured Derosa and Glaus in LF would seem like FAR better options than what we’ve been seeing on offense from 3rd and left. holy fuck
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
let us not also forget that we are in first place
that combination is a complete mind job
that's what I was thinking too
after reading Dan’s post today, it’s a freaking WONDER that we are in first place.
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
this team is terrible
we should just replace everybody with the Memphis team. and tell Carp and Pujols to just play hearts or something until we actually get a good team together
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
haven't we done that in many respects already?
craig, wallace and glaus are about the only ones that haven’t played with us yet
I just picture Colby’s eyes getting really big as he answers this question and he smashes his fist into the other hand.
What is your greatest fear?
Being on a rollercoaster and it goes off the tracks and — smash! — it hits ground.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Great interview.
Thanks for the link.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
best baseball movie?
summer catch. -2 colby, -2.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 21, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
but +2 for mmmbop
Now that’s a respectable most embarassing ipod song.
Surely the Summer Catch answers is the dry wit that Goold was describing. I refuse to believe anyone thinks Summer Catch is a good movie.
by peach concrete on Jul 21, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby is what, 15? He probably hasn't seen Bull Durham.
This could also have something to do with Jessica Biel (hey, don’t look at me funny, I had to use imdb).
So manly
I’m afraid of the scoop on top of my ice cream cone falling to the ground and—- splat! —-it hits the ground. Then I cry.
But it’s weird that athletes are now replying exactly as I would seeing as how they’re the same age. I totally hate calls. Aside from Summer Catch, that’s bullshit, the answer is Bull Durham.
Not afraid to nitpick
It always amazes me how many people love Bull Durham
I can’t stand that movie. From Tim Robbins horrible horrible pitching mechanics to the dreadful character played by Susan Sarandon all wrapped around a friggin’ love story.
Barf.
Bull Durham is to baseball what Pearl Harbor (the Ben Affleck movie) was to WWII.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Repent...
And thou shall be saved.
Bull Durham =/= Pearl Harbor.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
They're both chick flicks.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I disagree
Pearl Harbor is just a bad movie. I don’t even think “chicks” liked it. Or, at least, they shouldn’t have. If “Bull Durham” is a chick flick, then so is “Roman Holiday” and “Casablanca.” I reject the notion that because a movie deals with adult relationships, it is therefore only for chicks.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Casablanca is not a chick flick
I will not accept that my favorite movie ever is a chick flick. If anything it is the ultimate guy movie…I mean really, Ingrid Bergman. WOWZERS.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 21, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's not what he was saying
He’s saying Bull Durham is not a chick flick, and as an example he used the fact that Casablanca is not a chick flick.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I caught that
I just had to find a way to get my love for Bergman out there.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
+1 for the Ingrid Bergman Lust
And another +1 for Casablanca being your favorite movie.
by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Ooh, she's low maintenance
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
Agreed
Oh god, there’s like feelings and stuff? CHICK FLICK! Or not…
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It's also
by far the best movie that deals with the actual game of baseball on film. Just some of things that Crash says when he’s talking to Nuke and the jargon used throughout the movie are fantastic. There’s no better writer of sports movies than Ron Shelton (Bull Durham, White Men Can’t Jump), imho.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
well
I bought it the other day to check it out, since it seems kind of popular on here. my friend made fun of me the other day for buying it though, said it was just a cheesy love story not much of a baseball movie
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not about love
It’s about sex and baseball and breathing through your eyelids. It’s about tricking yourself to forget what you work so hard to perfect in order to perform something unnatural in front of thousands of people for millions of dollars. It’s about being in the locker room with your boys and farting and telling dick jokes. It’s about the value of words; both written and spoken. It’s about realizing your dad truly is as full of shit as anybody else, regardless of how much you worship him. It’s about superstitions an philosophy and quadrophonic Blaupunkts and announcing your fucking presence with authority.
It’s definitely not a love story, though. Unless you consider it a story about how much we love baseball.
If you love baseball so much
then you should be offended that Tim Robbins was chosen to play the part of a professional pitcher when it’s obvious he’s never thrown a baseball in his life (at least it looks like it).
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Costner pitching as Billy whatshisface
was worse.
Maybe I just hate that movie, though.
Whenever I watch Bull Durham, I see Mark Fidrych as Nuke. That gets me through. Big things sometimes come in odd/small/funny packages.
Haha
Robbins pitching mechanics are awesome in that movie. They intentionally made him out-rageous with the whole arm action sweeping back to his hip and the eye thing and whatnot. And the scenes actually about baseball depict the minor leagues perfectly.
Not afraid to nitpick
But they're SUPPOSED to be ridiculous...
…The film attempts to evoke the goofy and absurd character of the bus leagues. It is a comedy after all. If you’re going to base your opinion of a movie on being “unrealistic” than honestly you shouldn’t watch movies. By definition, none of them are realistic.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Its really about
Believing in the soul, the cock, the pussy, the small of a woman’s back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. Believing Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. Believing there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. Believing in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
I like Bull Durham, and always have
despite the fact that I can’t stand Susan Sarandon’s character. At the end I just wish Crash would tell her to go to hell but he never does.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I just saw a new one (for me, anyway) the other night.
It was called “The Final Season.” About a small high school in Iowa that had won like 19 straight state championships in baseball, but gets incorporated into a larger school district and has one last chance to win the championship again before the school is closed. It was pretty good. Kind of like the “Hoosiers” of high school baseball. Plus it has the manager from Major League in it. And Tom Arnold.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 21, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it is based on a true story, too.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 21, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Sand Fucking Lot
Get serious
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Bad News Bears
Eight Men Out, Field of Dreams, Major League to go along with Sandlot and The Natural
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
*61
is a good movie too.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
It's the best baseball movie
really. Just because none of the other films had acting as good as that film.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
The Rookie and A League of Their Own
are two more good one’s I’d put way ahead of Bull Durham.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
baseball movies suck.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a decent one.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Did he say "funky butt-loving?"
“Chet Steadman” is one of my favorite fictional character names. It just sounds like the kind of guy that the home fans would love but everyone else would think is a huge d-bag.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Benny Rodriguez : Henry Rowengartner :: Albert Pujols : Steve Trachsel
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
The Natural was one of my favorite movies as a kid
it rocks
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I will go there. My Top 5 Baseball Movies.
1) The Natural
2) Bull Durham
3) Sandlot
4) Major League
5) Field of Dreams
The order shifts with each day of the week, but the top 5 is pretty well set in stone.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Has anybody ever seen or even heard of
A baseball movie called “The Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars and Motor Kings?” I honestly don’t even know if it’s a good movie but I remember watching when I was a kid once on a Saturday, probably on channel 11 or something. I think it’s about some former Negro League players trying to make it back into the league. It stars Billy Dee Williams, James Earl Jones, and Richard Pryor, and based on that I’m not sure how it can be all that bad but apparently nobody on the planet has ever seen it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Agree. A great movie.
You all should also see Bang the Drum Slowly with Michael Moriarity and Robert DeNiro
Then stop at the library and check out all of the truly great baseball books written by Mark Harris. Start with “The Southpaw”
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I have a huge problem with "The Natural"
because I am a big fan of the book, and Redford changed the ending to Hollywoodize the movie, which changes the morality play of the story as well as the theme. Here’s my list:
- Bull Durham
- Field of Dreams
- 61*
- Major League
- Bad News Bears
Honorable Mention: For Love of the Game — because Billy Chapel is such a great baseball name.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I got For Love of the Game in a DVD package at a charity auction
I haven’t made it to it yet, but it is on my list of things to do this weekend.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Just get ready
for Kevin Costner to out cheese himself.
It’s a decent plot — minus the love story — I just could not stand how it was put together.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
this.
we were promised a great baseball movie, instead we got a stupid love story with some unrealistic baseball moments thrown in.
and i agree with you fourstick, Vin & John C were the only good things about that movie.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
i hate that movie
like really, really hate it
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
Why?
It’s certainly not my favorite, but you have Vin Scully calling the game that they keep flashing back to, John C. Reilly playing a Stache Larue type journeyman catcher, and Kelly Preston as the hot love interest. There have certainly been movies done much worse than this one. I thought it was a cool thing to have a pitcher wrapping up his storybook career with a perfect game in Yankee Stadium as the central story wrapped around him getting his personal life in order over the course of flashbacks from the past.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm with you on this one fourstick.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Overall, the set-up for that movie is a good one...
…It’s a very flawed film, but as far as entertainment value goes it’s acceptable. Costner’s stuff is underwhelming, but the baseball scenes are generally interesting to me. I really enjoyed his inner-conversation with himself. I played a lot of ball up until I was about 23 and that part is very true-to-life, as many of the pitchers I’ve played with literally talk themselves through a game.
Oh, and Kelly Preston, despite acting semi-poorly, is extremely hot in that film. She was much nicer than her character is Jerry Maguire, who was also hot, but a total insane biotch.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I like For Love of the Game
I think it gets a bad rap because of Kelly Preston. But I get why they made her such a focal point of the movie. It’s about a guy who’s like 40, who’s pitched his entire life and now he’s at a crossroads in his life and it’s all wrapped around his last game.
Plus, Vin Scully does the play-by-play and that automatically vaults this movie skyward. During the game sequences, Vin is natural and just makes the whole thing believable.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
+1
Changing the story is one thing…gutting it is another.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
And that's a perfect example of why reading is bad for you.
Reading ruins movies.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
My Favorite BB movie: Bang the Drum Slowly
Robert DeNiro is absolutely fabulous as a dying ballplayer having a career year.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
I HATE HATE HATE The Natural
It takes a dark, book noir (??? sure) and turns it into a celebration of baseball Jesus Roy Hobbs. What is Glenn Close for? To stand and bask in the ethereal light for no apparent reason and inspire him, somehow, and then give him lemonade and say that her kid is Roy’s kid at the point when the plot requires it. How about Pop Fisher, aka Wilford Diabeetus? Well he’s there to be endlessly kind and understanding and have no real depth whatsoever.
How about the New York Knights? How did they even make the majors at all? They are literally the most inept baseball team anyone has ever ever seen and all of a sudden Roy shows up and they can play defense like a veritable crew of vacuum cleaners, even though before they couldn’t have fielded a ground ball if the fucking thing had literally stopped in front of them.
And at the end? SPOILER ALERT FOR BOOK AND MOVIE…
They WIN! But they DON’T WIN!!! They completely alter the book IN EVERY SINGLE WAY! I mean, I think it’s unrealistic to produce a film that is a word for word replication of the book, but to change literally everything that the book is? Inexcusable.
I may have mentioned this, but I really hate that movie both because of how it’s made and how badly it butchers the source material. And no, I didn’t base my feelings of the movie on the book originally because I saw the movie first.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
what?..... Hollywood didn't make the movie like the book?
sarcasm aside….. what you said could be about almost any movie based on a book. The Dirty Dozen movie is much better than the book (non sports, but it came to mind quickly). Field of Dreams book is suppose to be way better than the movie…. and I really like movie and I hope to read it someday. I don’t have a point here…. other than Hollywood should not be counted on to give you “the real story”.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 21, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
No...
…but to completely tear up the source material and start over, while calling it the same thing, is kind of a dick thing to do (in my mind at least). That’s what happened with The Natural…plus, it’s a severely flawed movie anyway in my mind. Two of the main characters are really stuck there with nothing much to do and the team is hopelessly and unbelievably bad without Roy. To me, the set up doesn’t make much sense.
The fact that I read the book, liked it more, and thought that the book and movie were really only connected in title and characters and general set-up was sort of the coup d grace.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Kinda the opposite with "Bladerunner"
the book it’s based on is kinda OK (not Dick’s best), but the film basically alters the source material so much that they ended up changing the name. And ultimately, the film’s actually better, IMO.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I've got to disagree
I realize that the movie is only tangentially related to the book, and is a significant departure thematically, but I’d rather have that done well (Breakfast at Tiffany’s) than a faithful adaption done poorly (Great Gatsby.) That the movie has its own take on the myth of the Natural, a redemptive one, is no strike against it for me.
I could never get into Malamud, incidentally, this book included. Too heavy-handed thematically.
But see...
…I don’t think the movie IS done well. There are factors about it that simply bother me. Oh well..
Ultimately, as with all films, what really matter is if you liked the movie and enjoy watching it.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
You are entitled to your opinion...
but I don’t think The Natural is near as well done as Breakfast at Tiffany’s, and would put it somewhere near The Great Gatsby in terms of story and characters. While the Gatsby movie followed the book, they essentially wrote out a lot of the backstory of both Gatsby and the female characters to make him more mysterious and to keep the movie focussed more on his mystery than on the relationships which are so key to the book thematically. Pretty much the same issue that I have with The Natural, except Redford totally bastardized the book and then called it the same thing. I’d like to see someone try to do that with “The Catcher in the Rye” — Salinger would eat them for lunch.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I hear that 'Sugar'
which came out this spring (and unfortunately didn’t make it to Nashville) is actually a fantastic movie about baseball.
by peach concrete on Jul 21, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Question about the save stat
How does Chad Durbin get a save in last night’s Cubs – Phillies game for protecting a 9 to 1 lead? I thought the lead had to be 3 runs or less?
rules for a save are as follows:
have to be the finishing pitcher, can’t be the winning pitcher, pitched at least 1/3 of an inning, and have to satisfy one of the following conditions: enter the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning OR enter the game with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck OR pitch for at least three innings.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
Ah, so he gets it with the last or
Same reason that guy for TX got a save when the Rangers beat the Orioles by 212 runs.
I live in Cincinnati, and no, I don't want Adam Dunn
Maybe I missed this comment, but, St. Louis is not really in a position to add salary and the Nationals are not going to pay any part of his salary and value Dunn actually highly. And we want to give up a B minor leaguer and 14 million dollars for a guy who cannot play any D at all?
I would much rather try to fill in with Skip, Ankiel, DeRosa, or Robinson.
a few thoughts
The problem w/ your planned solutions is many:
Skip wont be playing LF, he is TLR’s 2B whether it makes sense to move skip back or not
Ankiel and Duncan arent likely to suddenly remember to hit the ball.
DeRosa is filling in at 3B mostly (or should be)
And Robinson really?
and is Dunn really that much worse than weak-armed Glaus in the OF?
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
and he’s better than both Duncan and Ankiel…….and now we’ve come full circle!!!!
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
sweeeeet
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope he beats Rome up
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 21, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
When on Rome...
"I'll be glad to have Ryan [Braun] help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." - Doug Melvin
Do as Jim Everett did
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 21, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
SHIT!
There goes my hypothesis that the only guys Jim Rome can get are the C-listers, although I’d hardly call Waino a scrub.
I just always crack up when (about 3x/year) I happen to be home at a time when JRIB is on TV. I love his opening monologues just for their cartoonishness. It’s always like:
“What. Is. Up? I am Jim Rome and here is what I am burning on today. Michael Vick….Brett Favre….don’t go anywhere because after the break, I’ve got Utah Jazz shooting guard Byron Russell joining me today. Stick around!”
(only all of that is in his douchey Jim Rome voice)
Its actually on the radio show, and he didn’t say what time. I assume it’ll be over the phone so unfortunately no chance for Waino to beat Rome up
by SGFCardinals on Jul 21, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
i swear my first International Poly Sci professor was Jim Rome
this was about 1999 or 2000, btw
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
SVP Show with Peter Gammons...
…discussing possibility of picking up Rolen again. “LaRussa can easily forgive and forget especially if there’s a possibility of winning.”
Discuss.
Not happening.....
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
Say what you want about the odds of Rolen coming back, but
Peter Gammons is the best reporter in baseball, by far.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I love Peter Gammons.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
And now I'm crying
because I miss the dude and also because my mommy never learned me how to use “reply”.
yeah right
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
if that were to actualyl happen
I would give Tony the longest leash in the history of professional sports. It would come close to making up for everything else Tony has done that has made my hairline oh so unsexy.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Rolen > LaRussa
as far as Cardinals prospects of winning.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
true
Rolen as player manager could work, that would solve the problem
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I am still saying
they are gonna need a replacement for Gaston in Toronto. Make this trade Mo!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Two things Scott Rolen wouldn't do
1) Let Todd Wellemeyer pitch
2) Let Chris Duncan PH
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
3) put anyone on the DL ever
j/k I miss rolen
by brackenthebox on Jul 21, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I have thought about this a time or two
And I miss Rolen. If it happened, I’d be happy. What would trade for him? Glaus? Hahaha. Then, Mo would graduate to genius GM.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Mitchell Boggs
Probably. Maybe Tyler Greene.
We’d be taking on his contract so that would be the big incentive for Toronto.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Peter Gammons is drunk?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
gammons should go into late night comedy.
i would be shocked if this happened.
The first thing that a pitcher has to understand is that Albert is better than you.-- Jim Palmer
just debunked on the pregame
it will never happen. good old pete is once again talking out of his ass
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
Milwaukee and Houston tied
Reds have fallen back, Cubs in second
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions
Lineup per FSMW tweet:
Schumaker 2B
Stavinoha LF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
DeRosa 3B
Rasmus CF
LaRue C
Wellemeyer P
Ryan SS
....my quick smells like french toast...
Besides Stav in the 2 hole
Prob the best we can do. Best option in my mind would look like this…
Schu
DeRosa
Pujols
Ludwick
Rasmus
Stav
LaRue
Welle
Ryan
After reading the stories about DeRosa, Ankiel, Duncan and Lohse
I think I’ve figured out how to fix the health care system.
Sign every American to the St. Louis Cardinals. Because they seem to think they can get everyone healthy just be being in the presence of the Greatest Fans in Baseball.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions
BP
now I kow its not MLB pitching but DERO didnt look too bad, hopefully hell start to hit.. im sure it hurts but I have more optomism about him than Dunc or Ank
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
I'm more worried about Stavinoha getting playing time than anything else at this point
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm more worried about Stavinoha getting playing time than anything else at this point
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
aren't you?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
Hopefully
Pudge isn’t catching. Last nights stance adjustments to Ryan were Hals, showing him how to take advantage of the Crawford boxes.. We aren’t winning anything unless Tony deals with this “New School” style. Ludwick and Albert have to punish Wandy away, also Ryan has always had a hard time being “the man”, I hope someone can focus his “hitting expectations”. Getting beat away like he was last night is sick somehow. You can destroy this pitcher if you just hit where he is throwing. Pound him away and then set traps when he comes at your hands.
Rick may get the start again. He won’t hit tonight if he does. We will need 6 or better.
I agree with most of this..
is Ryan a SS or RF?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
Are you alternating sentences?
One about pitching, the next about hitting?
Questions for you
Do you happen to live on the west coast? Do you watch the birds there? Do you absolutely love conspiracies?
By the way – no offense is meant by this. Your style/predictions reminds me of a certain visitor to this site who hasn’t been heard from in the last year.
You are mental. In a kinda cool way.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
SD
Its a short hand of a sort. Treat every sentence as a paragraph. If it doesn’t make sense, just let it go. After the game it might become more clear. I just hope Pudge took a beating last night and gets the night off.
the Colonel has requested his personal catcher
That and some Dos Equis on a silver tray.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i like his personal catcher
seems to work, takes care of a couple of things at the same time
by Expatcardfan on Jul 21, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone over at Your Stadium Sucks?
Over at Deadspin. It’s Busch’s turn.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
warning: Skip bashing
They don’t understand orgasms, I take it. I was skimming.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That was really, really weak.
The only thing they bag on is the media constantly s’ing the fanbases d, which is something most of the actual fanbase can’t stand?
They should have just had Will write it.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
i read that last week
they also ripped on old Busch. lame
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I like the way someone described possible-borderline-hall-of-famer Scott Rolen
as a “mediocre white player from the club’s recent past”.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone yesterday suggested Elijah Dukes for LF
I don’t really like the but he does play average defense and seems like he has a balanced offensive attack. I asked them over at federalbaseball.com and they told me…
As for what it would take? The Nationals’ got him for 1 minor league pitcher, Glenn Gibson (4th Round pick in ‘06) and his value probably hasn’t changed…
I’d hazard a guess that a SP would pry him away, although my sneaking suspicion is that a ML-ready RP type would do it too. Why? Because this team is not only more concerned about fielding a reasonable team this season when it flagrantly doesn’t matter, but they’re also incapable of judging value. Send over some 25-year-old in AA who got like a 1.50 ERA and they’ll pounce.
Where does he fit for you and what do you have to offer in the way of relievers and middle infielders?
What do you guys think? I guess this is what happens when you’re waiting for the baseball game haha.
....my quick smells like french toast...
What about Marco Scutaro?
He plays a lot of different positions and could probably fill either the LF position or 2B if they moved Skip to LF. Plus, he hits the crap out of lefties.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Last I heard
The Jays were optimistic that they could sign him to a deal prior to him hitting free agency or even after that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You're probably right.
Plus he is probably going to be a Type A FA so they probably won’t trade him. I’d love to have him though.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Then again
Gammons seems to think that the reason they set the deadline for Halladay is that if they’re going to trade him they’re also going to be looking at moving Rios, Rolen, and Scutaro, so it may totally depend on what happens with Doc. He’s like the keystone in a game of Jenga — if he goes the entire tower falls down.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
scutaro
is brendan ryan with a little bit more pop having a career year who will be severely over-valued by the Jays. Pass, pass and thrice pass.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
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