FanPost

Ank vs. Dunc: Who Would Get Voted Off?


So, we have 2 redundant outfielders with similar skillsets. If we had the choice to "vote one off" the proverbial Cardinal island, who would it be?

First, let's look at Chris Duncan's statistics... he has 1286 career plate appearances, .817 OPS and .352 wOBA. I think it is safe to say that he is more "clutch" than Ank, but I wouldn't say by a huge margin. He has a better eye, but his defense in the outfield is not as good. His RF/G (range factor per game in LF) is 1.5 for his career. He doesn't have as good an arm as Ankiel, I think we could all agree with that. Duncan has 9 errors in LF for his career. By WAR, Duncan is 3.7 WAR for his career (.1 WAR for this season, his ceiling being in 2006 at 2 WAR).

Ok, Ankiel.... Rick has 963 plate appearances, or about 75% of the major league hitting experience of Chris Duncan. Since they've both been hurt off and on, I think Ank is more of a work in progress, which is pretty much just my opinion. Ank's career OPS is .786, which includes some time as a pitcher. Not drastically less than Duncan. His wOBA is .337, again, kind of in the same league of hitting capabilities imo. He's also a faster runner fwiw. In left field, Ank has a RF/G of 1.6 in left field, but has shown better numbers in RF and CF, so I think he may improve if he gets more playing time there. He has a rifle for an arm, and he could probably be a much better left fielder than Duncan if he gets more playing time there. By WAR, Ankiel is 3.8 career since 2007, again pretty comparable to Dunc.

So I think I prefer Ankiel at this point, but they are so close that I'm not sure what to make of it...

Ank's pros and cons:

  • less playing time in the outfield as Duncan, some of it playing while hurt. He is a better defender.
  • Ank has slightly more power than Duncan career-wise (higher ISO, idential SLG%)
  • Ankiel does not have a good batting eye, Duncan's is better. Ank does not handle pressure well.

Dunc's pros and cons:

  • the guy is a stretch to call an outfielder. the only reason he should be playing the OF is if he has power, which he doesn't really have a ton of (I'm not sure that I buy the argument that he will have more next season)
  • Duncan has good plate discipline, not great though. He goes through streaks like Ank does.
  • Duncan is not the fastest runner in the world, and is as cringe-inducing to watch in the outfield as Ank is to watch hitting.

So, not a ton of difference between the two, but I'd have to give a slight edge to Ankiel, if for no other reason, he has more speed and a better arm. They both could just be slumping this year and could swing out of this, and I'd love to hear everyone's opinions about this, because one of them should be riding the bench a lot more often, and I'd have to say that should be Duncan. Lastly, I'd like to note that Duncan's BABIP in 2009 is a lot higher than Ank's in '09, so I think that Rick has been a little unlucky (and at least he puts the ball into play more often).