Pitching Rotation Down the Stretch
I noticed in a thread recently someone said that the Cardinals have 9 off days in the next 9 weeks. This would lead to the Cardinals being able to use their 5th starter less than everyone else using theirs. I figured it would be a good time to check out which starters could/should start which games.
Obviously, you want your best to start as many as possible. Right after the All-Star Break with a completely fresh bullpen, i would choose to start Carpenter since he usually pitches shorter than Wainwright, thus allowing the bullpen to use their plenty rested arms. My rotation down the stretch (minus any trades that may or may not occur) would be:
Carpenter
Wainwright
Pineiro
Lohse
Wellemeyer/Thompson/Boggs/Mortenson/etc. (whomever they decide to keep/put in the rotation)
Carpenter would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:
7/17 v. ARIZ, 7/22 @ HOU, 7/27 v. LAD, 8/1 v. HOU, 8/7 @ PITT, 8/12 v. CIN, 8/17 @ LAD, 8/22 @ SD, 8/27 v. HOU, 9/1 v. MIL, 9/6 @ PIT, 9/11 v. ATL, 9/16 v. FLA, 9/21 @ HOU, 9/26 @ COL, and 10/1 @ CIN.
That's 16 more games for Carpenter.
4 against HOU, 2 against LAD, CIN and PITT, 1 each against ARIZ, COL, FLA, ATL, MIL, and SD.
9 of his final 16 games would be against the division. He would also then be set to pitch any time after 10/5, thus starting a playoff series should we make it.
Wainwright would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:
7/18 v. ARIZ, 7/23 @ WASH, 7/28 v. LAD, 8/2 v. HOU, 8/8 @ PITT, 8/14 v. SD, 8/19 @LAD, 8/25 v. HOU, 8/30 v. WASH, 9/4 @ PITT, 9/9 @ MIL, 9/14, v. FLA, 9/19 v. CHC, 9/25 @ COL, 9/29 @ CIN, and 10/4 v. MIL.
That's 16 more games for Waino.
2 against HOU, LAD, MIL, WASH, PITT, and 1 each against CHC, COL, CIN, ARIZ, SD, and FLA.
8 of his final 16 games would be against the division. Hopefully, we would have the division wrapped up before his 10/4 start, so that he could get extra rest and be ready for game two of the playoffs. If not, then he'd be ready by the 9th at the latest, by game 3 or 4 of the first round.
Pineiro would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:
7/19 v. ARIZ, 7/24 @ PHI, 7/29 v. LAD, 8/4 @ NYM, 8/9 @ PITT, 8/15 v. SD, 8/20 @ SD, 8/26 v. HOU, 9/2 v. MIL, 9/7 @ MIL, 9/12 v. ATL, 9/18 v. CHC, 9/23 @ HOU, and 9/30 @ CIN.
That's 14 more games for Pineiro.
2 against MIL, SD, and HOU. 1 each against ARIZ, PHI, LAD, NYM, PITT, ATL, CHC, and CIN.
7 of his final 14 games would be against the division. He would then be set to pitch any time on or after 10/5. If there is a one game playoff, he would probably be the guy to go on the 5th. If not, he's ready for game 2 of the first round.
Lohse would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:
7/20 @ HOU, 7/25 @ PHI, 7/30 v. LAD, 8/5 @ NYM, 8/10 v. CIN, 8/16 v. SD, 8/21 @ SD, 8/28 v. WASH, 9/3 v. MIL, 9/8 @ MIL, 9/13 v. ATL, 9/20 v. CHC, 9/27 @ COL, and 10/2 v. MIL.
That's 14 more games for Lohse.
3 against MIL. 2 against SD. 1 each against WASH, HOU, PHI, LAD, NYM, CIN, ATL, CHC, and COL.
6 of his final 14 games would be against the division. He would be set to pitch any time after 10/7. If we need a 4th pitcher in the first round, he's our man and he'd be ready.
That leaves one man to go. 5th pitcher/combo would only have 11 chances to pitch down the stretch, on the following dates vs. the following clubs:
7/21 @ HOU, 7/26 @ PHI, 7/31 v. HOU, 8/11 v. CIN, 8/18 @ LAD, 8/23 @SD, 8/29 v. WASH, 9/5 @ PITT, 9/15 v. FLA, 9/22 @ HOU, and 10/3 v. MIL.
That's 3 against HOU and 1 each against PHI, CIN, LAD, SD, WASH, PITT, FLA, and MIL.
6 of those 11 games would be against the division. Those 11 games, in my opinion, should be started by whomever TLR believes has the best chance of winning the game that day. This should especially be the case because of the lack of consistency in days off between starts.
Endnote: Obviously, I was a little late in getting this up, as we have already won the series against the D'Backs to start the "second half" of the season. Those first three games sized up about how I thought they would go. I think getting 46 starts from the big 3 (Carp, Waino, and Pineiro) down the stretch would be absolutely HUGE for this ballclub and could definitely land them in the crapshoot known as the postseason.
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19 comments
Comments
great
i guess our schedule may pay off in the fact that we have played so many games so far. The least that we throw Wellemeyer/Thompson/Boggs/Mortenson/etc out there the better.
by KyleW on Jul 20, 2009 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what the exact value of this underexposure is.
Replacing around 4 starts by a replacement-level starter with a pitcher who has a FIP between 2.0 and 3.5 is worth…more than one win by my quick and rough calculation. Could be as much as 2 wins, especially if we’re replacing 5 starts.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jul 20, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not so fast
I agree that getting starts for the best pitchers makes sense. But. If the Cardinals are (by some miracle) well ahead of the pack in early September, Tony may want to reduce their workload.
Having a rested Carpenter and Wainwright for the playoffs is nearly as important as making the playoffs.
by JWO on Jul 20, 2009 7:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree...
I was going with the assumption that we need these players the entire time. I did this especially since we play 4 of the 5 division rivals in 12 of the last 15 games. The only division foe we don’t play in the last 2 weeks is the Pirates.
by stlfan on Jul 20, 2009 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't believe we're trotting Welley out this week
in HOU & PHI.
Maybe we can just use the fifth spot as a relievers’ game and limit pitchers to once through the order.
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by gocards62 on Jul 20, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If only Welley was good the first time through.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jul 20, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what you're saying is
Piñiero will be pitching for 2AVEBD@TB?
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on Jul 20, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i was actually thinking about looking at this the other day
to see fi we could hide wellenmeyer…looks like we can!!
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Jul 20, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They should hide him...
in plain sight on the waiver wire.
Our chances are better with Walters/Hawksworth/Mortenson/Boggs at this point.
by guayzimi on Jul 20, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can have all the pitching in the world
but when your O keeps getting shut down time & time by pitchers who every other team destroys, you won’t win a lot of games.
take the game just completed for instance.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jul 20, 2009 10:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice post
If you have the time, I’d be interested to see the pitching matchups with other teams, assuming no injuries, down the stretch as well. Tonight’s pitching matchup certainly doesn’t favor us: Wellemeyer vs. Wandy. I’m betting on the guy with the W in his first name.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jul 21, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't have time right now...
I’ll be out of the country until the 30th or so…but when I get back, I might do it. I was thinking about it already, just waiting to see the results of the efforts here.
by stlfan on Jul 21, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's the schedule match-up for the contenders
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/7/21/956637/nl-central-schedule-strength
With eye-gouging colors.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 21, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to feel like we should dangle Brett Wallace
It seems like all year we’ve ben hanging on by a thread and just one thing could put us over the hump or let us slick into fourth place. If we’re not at least willing to experiement with Wallace on the major league team, then we need to go ahead and start thinking about a package to bring someone in. I think we should go ahead and try him out at third and put DeRosa in left. Colby and Ludwick sill start every game (except for scheduled rest. And Ankiel/Duncan, who knows. We can’t just count on being in the running over the next few years. The Cubs are going to play better thatn they have, The Reds seem like theyre getting stronger every year, and The Astros are going to slap us around in the second half every year until the end of the world. We need to strike while the iron is hot. We’re on the cusp this year but we need to go for it. It may be that Bretts best contribution to this organization is to bring us another player or two. I’d like to keep him, he has promise, but I’d rather win this year than watch Brett and Albert hit great on 3rd place teams for the next few years.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
by boba schrute on Jul 22, 2009 7:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Astros are going to suck for about the next half-decade
I mean, seriously suck. They could be the worst team in baseball in 2-3 years. The Cubs window is rapidly closing, as the stinky, backloaded contracts pile up and Soriano becomes a Carlos-Lee-esque albatross in a year or two, and their bereft farm system provides very little; they’ll still be OK, but they won’t get anywhere near 97 wins again anytime soon. The Brewers are close to as good as they’re going to get if they don’t increase payroll, they have Escobar and Gamel to come up, but have serious pitching concerns and a few cheap players who’re soon going to cost a whole lot more, or leave. The Reds should improve somewhat as their pitching ages, but a lot of their top ‘spects are already at the big club so I don’t think they’ll get hugely good.
90 wins will be enough to win this division for probably the next 2 or 3 years. Whilst I agree that this season is as good a “win now” opportunity as any (as, like, 87, 88 wins might be enough this season), we shouldn’t discount the fact that the next 2-3 years are a huge opportunity (with most of our best players under contract until at least 2011) to build a mini-dynasty in this division. Wallace is tradeable, I think, but we need to get something serious back, preferably not a rental, something that helps us for at least another year and preferably doesn’t cost too much money. We don’t want to trade him in a panic move to “just” win this season, because he’s our biggest chip.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about: just play Wallace?
he fills one hole (3B) and we don’t have to move anybody. Let DeRosa go to 2B—platoon w/Thursty if you must, TLR—and return Skip to the OF and platoon w/Glaus if he’s ready.
Duncan needs to go to Memphis, and AnK becomes the late-inning defensive replacement.
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by gocards62 on Jul 22, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya dunc isnt going anywhere
did you here TLR’s rant?
by KyleW on Jul 22, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your timing is excellent.
no, not “excellent.” what’s the word? “excrement.”
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 22, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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