Pujols's First Half IBBs
by chuckb on Jul 18, 2009 2:00 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintIn the first half of the season (if you can call 91 games "half" a season), Pujols was intentionally walked 32 times. Just for reference, 88 major leaguers who qualify for the batting title have fewer than 32 TOTAL walks so far this season, including Bengie Molina with 3, Cristian Guzman w/ 7, and All-Star Miguel Tejada w/ 10. Everyone’s favorite free-swinger, Jeff Francoeur has a whopping 12 walks this season. I thought, considering all the discussion about intentionally walking Pujols, that it would be interesting to explore what resulted from the 32 intentional walks that Pujols received this year.
I’ve been hesitant about doing this b/c we are dealing w/ a very small sample and I fear that too much will be made of the results, whatever they are. I’m going on record as saying that, based on The Book’s research, I believe it is a mistake to intentionally walk Pujols in almost every circumstance and I’m sticking with that whether the subsequent hitters are 0-32 or 32-32 w/ 500 RBI. It’s only 32 PAs, people! Well, it isn’t really b/c often several others likely batted after the 4th place hitter but we’re still dealing w/ a very small sample – one that’s too small to make any definitive judgments. Still, I’d like to see what the results were.
Interestingly, the Cards were ahead 19 of the 32 times that Pujols was intentionally walked. The teams were tied 9 times and Pujols has only been intentionally walked w/ the Cards behind 4 times. Our largest lead was 6 runs but there was a 5-run lead and 4 4-run leads. All 4 of the margins when the Cards were behind were 1-run margins.
Pujols was walked intentionally just once w/ the bases empty. 17 times Pujols received an IBB w/ a runner on 2nd only. He has received intentional walks 7 times w/ a runner on 3rd base only and 7 times w/ runners on both 2nd and 3rd. Pujols has been intentionally walked 14 times w/ 2 outs and 14 times w/ 1 out. He’s received 4 intentional walks w/ nobody out. When we examined the intentional walk, I concluded that the only time he should be intentionally walked is w/ runners on 2nd and 3rd and 2 out in the inning. This intentional walk has occurred only twice this year – by Jared Burton of the Reds on May 10 and by Manny Parra of the Brewers on May 27.
With all the talk of "not letting Pujols beat you w/ the game on the line," Pujols was received 12 intentional walks in the first 3 innings, including 5 in the first inning. 10 of his intentional walks have come in innings 4-6 and 10 more have occurred in innings 7-9.
Let’s then look at the results. Next batter is how the batter following Pujols has done in those situations. Subsequent batters is how all the batters that followed Pujols in the inning have fared. Pujols ’09 is his numbers this year and Pujols career is Pujols’s numbers for his career. Situational Pujols is how Pujols has done in his career w/ runners on 2nd, 3rd, or 2nd and 3rd.
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next batter | 32 | .320 | .406 | .440 | .399 |
| subsequent batters | 82 | .288 | .378 | .455 | .363 |
| Pujols ‘09 | 386 | .332 | .456 | .723 | .470 |
| Pujols career | 5768 | .334 | .427 | .630 | .437 |
| situational Pujols | 833 | .337 | .552* | .644 | .453 |
* -- includes 179 intentional walks
It’s unreasonable to expect the subsequent hitters to be Pujols, of course, but we can see that they’ve fared pretty well – better than they have on the season – following a Pujols intentional walk. And it’s worth noting that all of those 82 PAs included an additional runner on base (Pujols) than Pujols would have hit with had the bat not been taken out of his hand.
If we were so inclined, we can try using Pujols’s career numbers or ’09 numbers to attempt to simulate what would have happened had Pujols been allowed to hit in those circumstances. We do know that the next batter and the subsequent hitters have done a very good job when called upon – slumps and poor performance otherwise notwithstanding – and that the team has scored 33 runs AFTER Pujols’s 32 unintentional walks. We haven’t been successful every time, or even half the time, but we have had a few big innings and averaged more than a run per intentional walk.
Perhaps allowing Pujols to hit would have led to more runs but, when we first began exploring this scenario, we used The Book’s research to determine that, when followed by a league average hitter (approximately .332 wOBA), Pujols should be pitched to unless there were runners on 2nd and 3rd w/ 2 outs. This assumed that Pujols was had a wOBA of .465 (the table used in the book). As you’ll see, Pujols’s wOBA for the season is .470 – very close to the example used in the book. For his career it’s .437. You should also notice that our subsequent hitters have performed BETTER than league average -- .399 and .363 wOBA vs. .332 – following a Pujols IBB. Therefore, it’s reasonable to conclude that the team has scored more runs following those 32 IBB than it would have if Pujols had been pitched to those 32 times.
It is just 82 PAs so we really cannot conclude too much from such a small sample. But it’s fair to state that the team has done pretty well and, in fact, better than we should have been expected to perform following a Pujols IBB. While I love to watch him hit as well, I’m going to hope that teams continue to walk him, unless there are runners on 2nd and 3rd w/ 2 out!
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Agreed
It makes ZERO sense in almost all situations to intentionally walk someone. Even if that player is Pujols.
Derosa.
do the numbers shake out differently with total walks?
Some of those are intentional. The pitcher just makes a show of it.
I doubt the stats would be different, but it would be interesting. Nice work.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Here's a circumstance in which walking Pujols makes sense
You’re the visiting team in Busch III. It’s a tie game in the bottom of the 9th. The winning run is on base, and there’s an empty base between Pujols and him (i.e. winning run is on 3rd and 2nd and/or 1st is open, or winning run is on 2nd and 1st is open). Therefore, walking Pujols doesn’t move the winning run any further up on the bases, and it increases the odds of the person at the plate to make an out. That’s about the only time I can think of where it would make statistical sense to intentionally walk Pujols (or anyone).
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
The problem with this logic
is that you are using an average result to decide what to do in a tactical situation. If I were manager, I would like to have these stats handy and then apply the game facts to determine whether the specific odds, in your opinion, at that point in time are consistent. I can easily see managers looking at mini-trends to make different decisions. It would be my view that if you don’t have a strong tactical view you follow the stats, but that if you have a set of facts that makes you think in that situation that you are better off walking Pujols, then you walk Pujols.
If Ankiel is next, suffering through a slump and the pitcher has a history of owning Ankiel (ok bad example, everyone owns Rick), then I’m sure you think differently about facing Pujols.
Just win
Yeah
If I’m the opposing manager and Ank/Dunc is EVER hitting directly behind Albert, I’m walking Albert 8 days a week. If Colby’s hitting there and you have a lefty on the mound, I probably walk Albert in that spot too.
However, the data are pretty strong, IMO, and I generally buy into the point of all this, which is that it’s probably not a good decision (in most circumstances) to give the oposing team a free baserunner.
Does Pujols score?
If Pujols doesn’t score, then the w may be a success. For example, if there is a runner on second and he is walked, if the next batter drives in the runner on second, nothing has been lost by the defence until Pujols scores. They simply chose the odds of pitching to the lesser hitter. If Pujols scores, then the IW has failed. This would also be true for runners on second and third no matter how many outs. As long as you don’t advance a runner into scoring position, and Pujols doesn’t score, the IW is a good bet. But you are just playing the odds.
by Remember Kenny B on Jul 18, 2009 8:09 AM EDT reply actions
May is the key word
Sometimes Pujols doesn’t score, sometimes it leads to a big inning. But in the end the numbers shake down so that pitching to Pujols in the first place is the better bet. If you haven’t read the linked article above that chuckb wrote a while back, it clarifies the situational settings better.
Exactly...
that’s the real test because it’s ALWAYS better to pitch to someone other than Pujols regardless of the result. That’s playing the percentages. The question is, what happens to the extra base runner?
Looking at BR, Pujols has scored eight times out of 32 IBBS, for a scoring rate when IBB’d of 25%. Overall in his career, Pujols has scored about .18 runs per plate appearance. Obviously, one can’t draw sweeping conclusions based on 32 PAs, but for 2009 Pujols has scored at a greater rate when IBB’d than he has for his career as a whole.
i disagree
even Pujols scores the runner in less of his ABs with RISP for his career (690RBI/1175AB w/ RISP, I couldn’t easily split out multiple RBIS per AB such as a grand slam, so I assumed that he had enough to make it fall below 50%). If you walk AP you still have a batter behind him that can score the current runner and AP, to me that is a risky proposition.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
But it's not as though pitching to Pujols guarantees that the runner on second scores
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 18, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Paid off for us yesterday
AJ Hinch made what Tom Tango, chuckb, myself, and probably even TLR (maybe a stretch there) would easily call a huge mistake – walking Pujols with first base occupied.
In the bottom of the 7th, where we pretty much put the game away, Pujols came up with men on 1st and 2nd and 2 outs. Run expectancy before he came up was 0.46. When Hinch called for the IBB, run expectancy went to 0.78. The decision to pitch to Ludwick with the bases loaded instead of Pujols with men on 1st and 2nd increased run expectancy by 0.32, and pretty much locked up the win for us.
If it is a mistake to give anyone an IBB ever, it is a sin to put a man on to load the bases when you already have a force play established. Does not matter what your name is. After Hinch is let go this year, he should read up.
I know whom to call for a hole in my roof or a whole new roof.
and then he brings in a reliever...
with control issues.
Hinch won’t be fired after this year. He’s a sabermetrically-inclined, play-the-youngsters type brought in by Josh Byrnes.
Agreed on Hinch
Although it is interesting that he hadn’t managed a single game at any level prior to getting the job. One wonders if he would have made the same decision based on experience.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I doubt AJ's
contract is very important financially. It probably allows him to be replaced at his old job. AZ will be one of the first teams to take a run at Tony and Dave with some serious dough. Just a hunch.
I was thrilled at this decision
He gave us a chance to break their back and we did. It was a very nice piece of hitting by Ludwick, too. He got a fat pitch over the middle part of the plate, but didn’t try to do too much with it, simply lining it to the opposite field for a base hit and 2 RBI. It was a wonderful bit of capitalization by the streaking Luddy.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Damned if you do...damned if you don't
It seems to be getting to the point where if Pujols is up in a situation where he can do damage and Ludwick is hitting behind him, it doesn’t really matter what the opposing manager does, they’re going to be giving up some runs either way.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Luddy was the key here
in my opinion; THAT is what made it a dumb move. But I can think of at least five Cardinals (if they were batting next) that would have made the move merely questionable… not dumb.
Isn’t this the game where Albert had already hit two HRs?
I like the "more than a run per intentional walk" stat
I know the sample is tiny, but that’s a nice thing to brag about. I know it’s not the same as expecting a run every time Albert is walked but I’m gonna think about that way because it makes me feel better.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
everytime the IBB pujols
They are basically conceding the run and hoping to keep the damage to a minimum. I think of it as playing the infield back with a man on third and one out.
I hate absolutes we need to find the middle ground of 'almost"
It reminds me of a “Two and Half Men” episode that goes something like that
Charlie: Alan, Would you have sex with a beautiful model for a $1?
Alan: (Sheesh) Yeah!
Charlie: Would you stick your ding a ling in a bee hive for lets say $10 million dollars?
Alan: Yeah, I guess so
Charlie: Alan we have now established that you are a prostitute now we just have to figure out your price range
(((Crowd Laughs)))
Walking a batter in some circumstances has to make sense. Lets say some player just couldn’t miss and had a 1.000 batting average. Obviously it would make sense to walk the batter if he had any chance of getting a hit above a single. Now lets say his BA is .500 but he only hits singles and nothing else. When would it make sense to IBB the player? When a man was on third but not when he was on 2nd? What if a player only had a .250 BA but every time he got a hit it was only a HR or a 3B. Under what circumstances would it not be worth the chance to avoid that outcome? A man on?
I know I am talking about extremes here but that is the point. Find out first under what circumstances it makes sense to IBB a player than work backwards. I have not even discussed the factors of the player hitting behind him. My point is things are more complicated as saying it never makes sense to IBB a batter. We need to establish under what circumstances it does make sense. How good does a player have to be effect the decision? Is it AVG driven or SLG driven or both? How much does the player behind him factor into this decision?
Now this might be detailed in the Book but it is not in front of me so I don’t know.
Stat Whore
You can find your answers in chuck's first post on this subject
We need to establish under what circumstances it does make sense. How good does a player have to be effect the decision? Is it AVG driven or SLG driven or both? How much does the player behind him factor into this decision?
According to The Book, if the player in question has a .465 wOBA and the players behind him are league average wOBA (.332 or better), then the only situation where it makes sense to walk the player in question intentionally is when there are men on 2nd and 3rd and two outs.
I’ve paraphrased that from chuckb’s post, but that pretty much answers your question doesn’t it?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Not exactly
But I will have the Book in front of me in a few days anyway. I will try to make some kind of formula to plug in numbers
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 18, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
The manager factor
We also have to consider that if a manager pitches to Albert, and he hits a home run, the manager is thought to be an idiot. If the guy after Albert hits one, everyone says, “Oh well”. Managers can keep their jobs by walking him.
by Remember Kenny B on Jul 18, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Small sample
I’m going back a few years, but I thought in a normal distribution that approximately 30 data points effectively constituted a reasonable sample size. If 82 PAs is still a small sample, how big does it have to be before that issue is taken off the table?
Just win
30 data points effectively constituted a reasonable sample size.
Only if that sample is a sample of the exact same situation. You’re also assuming that we’re dealing with a normal distribution in this case, which is not necessarily true.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Going off on a tangent...
IMO, the D-Backs Jon Garland made a bigger mistake than Hinch’s IBB — as the leadoff batter in the 6th, Garland got to 3-0 on Pujols. At that point, Garland should have just gone ahead and walked him (even though that increases the chance the Cards score in that inning.) Instead, he threw Albert a “meatball” that ended up off the front of the 3rd deck! Sure, it was “only” a solo shot — but that homer gave Carp a little cushion.
Teams are going to continue walking AP, if only to “not let that guy beat us,” no matter whether it’s a “good” move statistically or not…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
I was glad to see him hit that pitch.
Albert is often in a straight “take” mode with a 3-0 count and I think (well, it appears last night) that some pitchers have taken advantage of him and gotten an easy strike (even when they’re clearly un-intentionally walking him). Now, Albert is a good enough hitter that even in a 3-1 or 3-2 count, I trust that he is going to be able to hit a more difficult pitch, but like last night I see absolutely no reason for Pujols not to swing at a 3-0 get-me-over fastball and try to hit it out of the stadium.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
BABIP
If he strikes that pitch and it’s a deep fly there is a 2 or 3 out of 10 chance he gets on base. If he takes three straight pitches there is a 75% chance that he gets on base. The real point is that Pujols neither always takes or always swings, therefore the pitcher cannot simply act a certain way in the situation. It’s one of my favorite things about his approach. For instance, sometimes he takes two or three pitches straight from the start of the PA and the ump gives the pitcher a gift strike or two, and instead of reacting to the umpire, he adjusts his approach knowing the pitcher who got the gift is going to become more aggressive.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
What's his OPS
on get-me-over fastballs down the heart of the plate when the pitcher thinks he’s in a straight take?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/501
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=pujolal01&year=2009&t=b
2009 3-0 count:
PA 54 AB 6 OPS 1.759
2-6 1HR
BABIP .200
I guess my numbers were less than charitable as there is actually almost a 90% chance he gets walked but only a 2 out of ten that he gets a hit on a ball in play. Whoops.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
Actually to be more rigorous,
After 3-0, minus IBB
34 PA 13 AB
4-13 3 HR
.794 OBP
1.000 SLG
1.794 OPS
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
I still don't see the numbers
for when the pitcher throws a get-me-over- fastball like the one Garland threw last night. And that’s the whole key to this. Pitchers don’t always throw a crappy pitch like that, but when they do, he’ll often hit the piss out of it. and with no one on, I’m fine with him swinging there.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
i don't think anyone is disagreeing with that
pretty sure hazel is giving you data that shows your position is a pretty good one. Granted, the “get me over” stuff would have to include first-pitches, 3-2 pitches, etc, but I don’t think anyone wants albert to take balls right down the middle, ever. but a walk is always, always, better than an out.
One way to get the info you desire might be from the gameday “hot zone” thing? The red center in the middle? I can’t help cuz I haven’t (and won’t) buy the gameday permissions that let you see that box, but maybe someone else has?
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
I've actually looked at that
and I think his middle box is blue. Probably because the only time pitchers groove one is in a 3-0 count and he’s often taking. Not positive though.
Hmm. I just looked it up but I can’t get the expanded view of Pujols. Everytime I click on it, it reverts to the last at bat of the game which caused me to get chilly looking at all the dark blue on Rick Ankiel’s zone thing (I refuse to call that a “hot” zone chart when Rick’s picture is above it).
However, in looking at Pujol’s in the small version, I noticed the middle box is dark red and the number looks to be “44” which is pretty darn high. However, I can only compare it to Rick’s middle zone (also dark red) which was a “17”.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Career IBBs
Currently Pujols is tied with Harold Baines for 19th on the all-time leaderboard in IBBs with 189 for his career. Only three players ahead of him on the list are currently active. Those players are Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Ken Griffey Jr.
Vlad and Jr. aren’t getting very many IBBs these days, but Manny has 8 this year and he sat out for 50 games.
Though we have less than half of a season remaining, I would not be surprised to see Albert double his current total, especially as the pennant races get close and manages get more worried. If Albert gets another 33 this year, he’ll jump all the way to tenth all-time, past greats such as Mays, Yaz, Schmidt and Gwynn. Manny will probably stay ahead of Albert this year, but he won’t keep pace.
Albert is almost certain to pass Hank Aaron, the current second-place holder on the list at 293. I doubt he’ll ever pass Bonds and his 688 IBBs unless he moves to the NL West and starts using steroids when he reaches 35.
Full list here.
Everytime
I’d walk Albert EVERY.DAMN.TIME.
On a serious note, I’m glad he does get walked with 1B open. I salivate at those situations because they are giving us an extra baserunner for Ludwick to drive in.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 18, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
A player with a 1.000
onbase percentage still is going to be very dangerous, and very helpful to scoring runs regardless of the relative strength of the rest of the lineup.
by Michael_68_1999 on Jul 18, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
OT ALERT: Anyone else worried about the whole DeRosa thing?
I’m having trouble wrapping my head around the decision to activate him. How affective is he gonna be? He’s been out for what, 2 weeks? And he’s gonna come back with an injury that requires surgery to fix, and they expect him to add offense? I’ve heard from some of my Cubs fan friends that he’s tough and plays through injuries but this seems overly ambitious to me. Especially when you read about how long David Ortiz and Rickie Weeks were/are out due to similar injuries. Throw in what I would call a less than trustworthy past from the team’s medical staff, and confidence in the move dwindles quickly, at least in my head. Sure, DeRo says he’s good to go but how much trust do you put in that, if any? Also, the PD quoted Mark as saying it couldn’t get any worse. Is that true? Seems to me that repeatedly using anything that is partially torn could cause that thing to tear more, no? I guess I’m just looking for some reason to feel good about it but haven’t found any. I know ultimately it doesn’t matter since he is a 3 month rental, and not guaranteed to be here next season, and third is hole in the lineup anyway. But what if playing him now rather than 6 weeks from now means we loose him right before the playoffs(GOB willing). I don’t know, just confusing that he’s ready after 2 weeks when others waited 6-8 weeks, or had surgery out right before they came back.
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions
What do we have to lose?
He won’t be any worse than what he’s replacing, and he’s not our problem long-term. The trade has already been made, so we have to just see what we can get out of him.
V, b.
That's what I've been telling myself too.
But what we have to lose is a healthy or at least possibly healthier DeRo at the end of August thru the remainder of the season
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
During last night's broadcast,
Dan ‘n Al were talking to Hayes, I believe, and they were saying that offseason surgery was a possibility. This would lead me to suspect that it could get worse, but that it probably won’t get better before season’s end, either. Since we are paying him through the end of October, why not run him out there (so long as he is not absolutely inept at the plate)?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
might as well run him out there.
since the only benefit he can give us it on the field this season.
I won’t be expecting any draft pick compensation for him if he has off-season surgery.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
According to the P-D
surgery is the only way the wrist gets better. DeRosa claims it won’t get any worse, but that he can feel the tendon “move.” Ugh. Creepy. I would think he’s capable of a decent average but not much power.
The important equation: Is a less than 100 percent DeRosa better than a 100 percent Thurston?
by Michael_68_1999 on Jul 18, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I would think so
He’ll still get on base more.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Or,
Is a 100% Wallace better than a 100% Thurston or <100% Derosa?
I know, I know! It’s moot because Tony seems bound and determined to keep Brett right where he is. Damn it!
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see why people are so up in arms about TLR's comment.
We see this all the time in sports:
“Coach ____ will be our coach for the remainder of the season.” Two weeks later, he’s canned.
“Player X will not be traded” Two weeks later, traded.
The comment by TLR had more to do with keeping Wallace focused on the task at hand and that is improving everyday down in the minor leagues. Why say something like “If he keeps hitting the crap out of the ball, we’ll be forced to bring him up” and put pressure on the kid?
10 internet dollars says Wallace wears the Birds on Bat before this season is over.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
I guess to me it seems like they've had the opportunity to bring him up already
I’m no expert though, so that could be way off. But the current numbers at 3b for the Cards in 2009 seems like there could have been an opportunity. Although I can’t deny the logic in letting him prove his worth in the minors for a full season either.
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
When?
When he couldn’t hit a lick in AAA? You do realize he just started hitting the ball well about a week and a half ago, right?
There was absolutely no reason (and there still isn’t) to call him up to the majors. Hell, there were more than a few people who were questioning him being promoted to AAA so quickly.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Wasn't thinking of a specific date or anything
just noting the lack of production at 3b since the end of April. And like I said I’m no expert and don’t deny the logic in leaving him in the minors. But, isn’t there going to be a learning curve at every stop? Rasmus never came to a new level and immediately tore it up either.
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I asked "why?"
because you said there had been plenty of times to call him up. But, there really hasn’t.
And yes, there is (well, should be) a learning curve, but he just got called up to AAA like a month ago and had been really struggling until about the last week and a half. IMO, while I’m not a fan of Thurston, I’d prefer he play at third than to experiment with a first round pick and the top prospect in our system this early.
While 3rd could be improved, Thurston isn’t completely killing us. Well, not enough to panic and rush Wallace to MLB, IMO.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I agree with your basic point,
but FWIW he’s been in Memphis longer, and been hitting well longer, than you think. He’s been there for just over two months now (since May 16, not counting a single AAA game on May 3), and he’s been hitting well for more than a month. Starting from June 12, his slash line is .378/.419/.582 (that’s through July 10, which is how far FanGraphs has his stats right now; I don’t know what his last week has been like). He’s hit safely in 24 of 27 games during that stretch, including a 15 game streak, and in one of the hitless games he only had one AB. He struggled for about three weeks after a very hot start, but he’s been on for more than a month.
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 18, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
over the last 10 games he's batting .342
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sorry, but you asked "when", not "why"
And I didn’t say there were “plenty of times” to call him up just that “they have had the opportunity”. When you have 5 third baseman out due to one injury or another, and your top prospect is a third baseman, it seems like an “opportunity”. Perhaps not the most ideal opportunity, but an opportunity nonetheless.
Seriously though, I throw out disclaimers because obviously I understand the insiders know more than me. But I do take exception to your “experiment” charge. If they drafted him as an “experiment”, then maybe they should have gone another direction. Everything I’ve read says the guy can and will hit. And I see no reason not to believe this after what he’s done, for the most part, at every level he’s played.
Having said all of this, I respectfully defer to Tony’s expertise in the matter and apologize if I’ve offended anyone by suggesting Brett may have done better than Thursty over the last 2.5 months.
But I don’t think I’m the only one who has perceived at times a disregard for the “prospect” in favor of the “journeymen or veteran” by Tony.
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
while I agree, that wallace should stay down for a bit longer...
he would’ve already been called up by a lot of other teams, given the circumstances
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Just like Rasmus......
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I never made the call for Rasmus last year
Some may have but not me. I was extremely happy with the outfield last season.
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Cards have had back luck with injuries so..
I won’t be surprised if he plays and then hurts it more and is done for the season. Albert, who we all know is in a separate category ,can play hurt but mere mortals who try are more likely to fail. And the Cardinals seemed to be jinxed. As they say " if they didn’t have back luck, they’d have no luck.
As far as him being worse than what the Cards are playing now, we have no idea how he’ll play with a bum wrist.
goold tweets derosa at third
Bats second today, jarrett hoffpauir to memphis.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 18, 2009 3:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
full lineup per bjrains
Skippy
Derosa
Pujols
Ludwick
Molina
Rasmus
Stavinoha
Carp
Boog
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
wow
Carp’s pitching two nights in a row? heh
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
waino. sorry.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 18, 2009 4:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was just joshin ya, man
/in best cable guy voice
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on Jul 18, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus 6th?
Eh?
Stav against a RHP? Eh?
No Dick or Dunc? Parade!
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 18, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I prefer DeRosa to hit in front of Pujols
and with the way Rasmus has been hitting, it’s good to put him back in the order again to see if he get’s more rbi opportunities since Lud and Yadi have been getting on base a ton lately.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
save for SuperNoha
I really like that lineup. Then again, is Little Miles really any worse at the plate than Duncan or Ankiel?
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
right now...
I’d take Little Miles over Ank and Dunc against lefties or righties.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah.
I know he’s shown more power than either of those two combined over the last month or so.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
hell...
right now, i’d take Jon Jay over ank or dunc.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
or even allen craig or mark shorey...
seriously…i really can’t stand ank and dunc right now
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
DeRosa at 3B tonight...
Hoffpauir sent back to memphis, according to Goold
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions
wow
Derosa back fast, but how long does he last before surgery is the question I guess.
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Why in God's name was Hoffpauir sent down
yet Joe Thurston occupies a roster spot?
For the Love of All That is Good and Holy, WHY?
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
hoffpauir was doing really good imo
not sure why they sent him down
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 18, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm guessing...
if the cardinals thought Hoffpauir could handle 3rd even a little bit, he’d still be on the team. Why haven’t they tried more experimenting with him at other positions? It seems like every MIF they had in the last 5 years got moved all around the field, except him.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
speaking of versatility...
who is our backup SS right now?…Derosa? Who was it before he was activated, Thurston?
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It would almost have to be DeRosa
Simply for the fact there are 33 pitchers on the roster. As to who it was, only TLR knows that.
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
we haven't had a backup SS for a while now.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I think the lack of defensive ability and a not very good arm
keeps him pretty much planted at 2nd base.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I assume it's because he would benefit more from regular playing time
and with DeRosa up all he’s going to do is sit the bench.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
thats really all
he was doing anyway
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
and there’s no point to it. All he was up for was an extra bat on the bench. Now that DeRosa’s activated, they don’t really need him and he can go to AAA and play everyday at 2b.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
i'm really mad about this
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
doesn't make sense to IBB
even players as great as Albert don’t make it on base 50% of the time. this way he is definitely going to be on base. maybe walking him with Ank batting cleanup would be the way to go, but otherwise probably not a great idea.
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 18, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions
Couple of OT requests
I’m going to be in Little Rock for two weeks starting tomorrow. One, what is the best site for free TV feeds over the Intertubes so I won’t have to get a month of mlb.tv? I’ll get mlb.tv if I have to, but I’m also thinking LR might carry the Cardinals. If anyone knows I’d appreciate it.
Secondly, is it worth a two hour drive one way to jump over to Memphis and catch the Redbirds in action for those that have attended a game?
Thanks in advance.
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
I haven't attended a game, but I've been to memphis.
so if you are only looking at a 2 hour drive, i’d highly recommend it,. a chance to see brett wallace, only sweetens the deal.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
If anything, just go check out AutoZone Park
It’s a sight to behold. Oh and eat some ribs.
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 18, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
little rock has way better BBQ than memphis does
yeah, i said it. what? do you wanna fight about it? i wish i had a pic of that little leprechaun.
if you love, heck even if you just kind of like BBQ, you M U S T go to one of the many Sims BBQ joints around the city. it’s the best i’ve ever eaten. THE BEST.
the whole hog is good play too. i haven’t been to the cross eyed pig yet, but i hear good things.
man i’m hungry.
the Angles AA team is in little rock too. so you don’t have to make a two hour drive just to see a baseball game.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
Yeah, I don wanna fight about it
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 18, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
ahhhhh, but i found the leprechaun
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
As a proud Memphian...
Do it. JD is correct on both AutoZone Park and the ribs. If you want ribs, the Rendezvous is right downtown. If not, you should at least get the Rendezvous barbecue nachos at the game. They’re amazing…
V, b.
Proud Memphian
Most of my family that lives there aren’t exactly proud of it at this moment, what with the political nightmare and crime rates
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jul 18, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
As for the Cardinals on TV...
Little Rock is part of the Cardinals’ regional TV territory, so MLB.TV will be blacked out anyway. I’m not sure what the situation is with cable, however. In Memphis, Fox Sports South and SportSouth carry a good deal of the FSMW telecasts, so Little Rock is probably similar in that respect. If you happened to have access to DirecTV, you would get all of the FSMW games.
V, b.
not true
my uncle has DTV & FSNMW is blacked out. all he gets is Rangers & Stros. the same goes for the cable companies. it’s retarded.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
yes, it could have something to due with the Angels AA team there now
i honestly don’t know. it didn’t used to be like this. when i was a kid & we visited family the Cardinals were on every TV.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I bet that's especially frustrating...
considering no one gives a fuck abut the Astros and Rangers. Especially the Rangers…
V, b.
Wow, thanks for the heads up on mlb.tv
I guess I’ll find a sports bar, or hope they’re on TV locally.
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
interesting...
just noticed that Ludwick is 11th in the national league in RBI’s despite not having enough plate appearances to qualify for the league leaders in batting avg.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions
He's really been raking
For about two weeks, and he started off hot before he pulled is hammy. I’m glad TLR realized the guy can flat out hit and isn’t rotating him with Dunc and Ank anymore. It was maddening.
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
If you extrapolated his rbi rate over the same number of
plate appearances as Albert Pujols has…he’d be parked right behind Albert in 2nd place (tied with Fielder) with 81 …roughly
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
So DeRosa was activated, sending Hoffpauir down.
Rotoworld saying that De-Ro will play 3rd and bat 2nd….
I’m wondering if that means if Rasmus is sitting, which is ridiculous is Ankiel AND Duncan are playing…
'Stay Thursty My Friends' - Tony LaRussa
lineup is posted above..
.rasmus bats 6th
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
no...
old man larussa, noticed that haren is slightly better vs. lefties (.183 vs. .195 for righties)…genius at work
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 18, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Nevermind, just saw that someone posted the lineup up north
'Stay Thursty My Friends' - Tony LaRussa
lineup again, tom s posted it earlier
full lineup per bjrains
Skippy
Derosa
Pujols
Ludwick
Molina
Rasmus
Stavinoha
Carp
Boog
Cardinal fanatic since '82
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 18, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions
your avatar is freaking me out
that thing haunted my dreams last night
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
That's odd
That thing haunts TLR’s dreams too, he thinks that by playing Thurston all the time, they might go away.
DeRosa: The Thurstonalizer
'Stay Thursty My Friends' - Tony LaRussa
well if he slept as good as i did i'm surprised thurston isn't batting 3rd & playing 1st
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
Forgive if previously asked or answered
but to chuck’s original topic:
1. did I read this?? “Pujols was walked intentionally just once w/ the bases empty.”
How and when did/could THAT happen. I’m assuming it was a case of the pitcher trying to get Albert to go fishing the first three pitches, and at 3-0 they just said screw it, let’s walk him?
2. which leads to a clarification of what an IBB is.. If only the last of the four balls thrown was intentionally wide does that still count as an IBB?
3. lastly, did I dream this or does someone else remember too that Johnny Bench struck out once on a fake IBB. I think it was an All-Star game, but maybe a playoff game of some sort. Anyway, on a 3-2 count the battery acted as if they were going to put Bench on intentionally, and instead the catcher ducked back behind the plate at the last second and the decoyed and befuddled Bench watched strike three go across the plat.
is that Pat speaking of He Who Must Not Be Named?
:( :( :(
And the deal…
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Help us settle a debate
Cards need a bat:
http://diamond-theory.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=272:the-cardinals-need-to-protect-pujols&catid=1:latest-news
Cards do not need a bat:
http://diamond-theory.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=274:the-cardinals-do-not-need-a-bat&catid=1:latest-news
by thinkbluebleedblue on Jul 18, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions
that might be a good question for a fanpost
kind of lame to come here and post links to your blog, though.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
updating the previous spreadsheet
As a Cards fan, from the perspective of "wanting to see the team win", I fully endorse the IBB’ing of Albert in most situations.
So far this season, using the Book’s "wOBA = .465" figures, 32 runs have scored following an IBB of albert pujols that increased RE; the "post-IBB" RE for those situations predicts the cardinals should have scored 24.21, pre-IBB RE, 21.77, for a net gain of close to (or slightly over) one win, depending on which you compare it to.
Incredibly, in situations in which IBBing pujols decreased RE in "the book", the cardinals have STILL scored zero runs, which really should regress soon, I would hope. Even Joe Thurston should be capable of one frigging 2-out hit with men on 2b, or 2B-3B, etc, following an Albert IBB. Still, the net real-world gain (to the cards) of IBB’ing Pujols this season, as compared to a "typical" .465 wOBA player, has been about 3 runs. Assuming I got everything right in my spreadsheet.
OTOH, as a guy who thinks seeing Albert break Hack Wilson’s record would be incredible fun, I hate seeing him IBB’d. Effing cowards.
the end of every half inning IS a turning point. -Evilfrog
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