Was Yadi’s transcendent defensive play his scoop and pick off last Saturday at Wrigley, or was it when he threw a guy out at second from his knees while literally diving across the plate last year?

That seems very high too me, but your method looks fine, so I probably don’t know what I am talking about.

Fuck, that’s amazing. 20 runs!!!, that’s 2 wins. He’s already been worth 1.8 WAR this year, on his offense and position alone. Add in the 2 wins on defense, and he has been one of the most valuable players in the majors this year.

Although that seems like it would be a bitch to do.

Great article, Chuck. Thanks.
However, in my humble opinion, Rep runs might be a bit smaller than you suggested.

It seems like your Rep runs are calculated like this way:

Rep runs = [ ( Inn / 9 ) x 0.8 – ( SB + CS ) ] x 0.175

However, stolen base attempts cannot be successful every time; the expected value of a stolen base attempt should be lower than 0.175 runs.

Expected outcomes of a stolen base attempt would be:
1. SB
2. CS
3. Not SB, but runner is safe (throwing error, injury, etc.)

I could not find the % of case 3. So let’s ignore it and calculate the expected value with case 1 and 2 only. So far in this season, 2,305 stolen base attemps were made and 1,692 of them were successful. That gives us 73.4% of success rate. A SB is worth 0.175 runs and a CS is worth negative 0.467 runs, so the expected value of a stolen base attempt should be calculated like this:

EV = 0.734 × 0.175 + ( 1 – 0.734 ) x ( – 0.467)

That gives us only 0.004228 runs. If we re-calculate Molina’s Rep runs with this expected value of a stolen base attempt, we get only 0.14 runs, significantly lower than your original calculation.

Don’t get me wrong; I don’t want to say a catcher’s strong reputation is worth almost nothing. Aggressive baserunning puts a lot of stress on opponents and does increase the chance of fielding errors. If your opponents choose not to run on you, you certainly gain some value. I just think the effect of a catcher’s reputation would be a bit smaller than originally suggested, because the expected value of SBA is pretty small.

equivalent to a PB in this scenario. A wild pitch is technically supposed to be on the pitcher and not the catcher (though a good catcher will prevent many a wild pitch). I see Yadi’s WP+PB is higher than the next 6 guys on the list (though with a great deal more playing time), and wonder what it would be if it were .5WP+PB. I don’t know if it’s fair to say that half of all wild pitches are outside of a catcher’s control, but I don’t know what an accurate % would be.

/hrbosky

Actually, I agree with Al on that. But I still love Yadi.

can you update the order in the chart? Easiest way to see relative position for me.

Albert has come up to the plate thirty six times this year (two thousand and nine) with a runner at third base and less than two outs.
- Eleven times he has walked (all intentionally)
- Out of the remaining twenty five times he was allowed to hit, eighty percent of the time he drove in at least the runner from third base (thirty eight total RBI’s)
- Four grand slams and one two-run homer
- One RBI double, one two-run double
- Three RBI singles, three two-run singles
- Five sacrifice flies, including one good for two runs
- Two RBI grounders
- Two double plays hit into, neither of which scored a run
- Two strikeouts and one liner to third

Albert is fully awesome

I threw up a quick FanShot about this, but those things tend to get pushed down really quickly. Anyway, I have 2 tix to Sunday’s game vs. the DBacks that I can no longer use. It’s a 1:15 start.

I wish I could simply donate them to a VEBer, but that won’t fly with my budget. I’ve got them posted at a bunch of different outlets and could probably stomach taking a little less from a VEBer if it came down to it.

Some really good pitcher is slated to start for Arizona, so if you’d like to see him and want more details, let me know. Feel free to post stuff here or send me a private message.

Again, my apologies for the advertising.

The quantification of catching defense is a noble pursuit, and I think you put together a great run at it.

Some questions for you and everyone else:

(1) So, we should pencil Ruiz in for a Gold Glove in 2012, but only if his BA is about .275?

(2) Now that catching defense has been handled, should chuckb get to work on tracking down Bigfoot or the Loch Ness Monster as his next feat?

(3) Lastly, how many times out of 10 would Yadi throw out 1987 Vince Coleman? (I am envisioning some sort of ABC Wide World of Sports special at Busch Stadium II with Yadi and Vince wearing “The Great Steal Challenge Which Violates the Time/Space Continuum” jerseys, Jack Buck doing the play-by-play, Fredbird, Musial throwing out the ceremonial first pitch, astroturf, and American-made Busch beer as the sponsor. Come to think of it, Nessie and Bigfoot can wait. Chuck, please get to work on time travel…)

not to mention, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter

great article as usual chuck!

Machine at first
Yadi at catcher
Walrus at third
Raz in center

Others think it should be happening this year, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

That’s all I got….. I hate these off-days.

It’s good to see some quantification to our assurance that Yadi is just about the best defensive catcher in the game.

Now my (nitpicking) complaint. You have the signs reversed between the table and the lead-in discussion. For instance, in the description it says:

BR runs represents the number of runs that a catcher has cost his team by being unable to throw base runners out. A negative number means that he’s prevented more runs than he’s cost his team by throwing runners out.

But in the table, Yadi has a positive number for BR runs (thus costing his team) while Jason Kendall (for example) has a large negative number (thus preventing runs). To get positive numbers for RAA (positive being good) the BR runs column should represent BR runs prevented (which it does in the table, but not in the text).

A fairly minor point, perhaps, but I spent 10 minutes trying to figure out why Kendall had a better BR rating than Yadi.

he should technically be eligible to play tomorrow, right?

Jeff wrote a hilarious piece comparing each Mariners player to something that would happen to you in the car. Very random, but also very funny.

but it’s a slow day and RB got his press credentials pulled.

Posnanski again lauds the greatness of Stan including the following:

“Sometimes it seems like Musial’s brilliance has been lost — or, at least misplaced — in baseball history. Maybe it’s because his greatness was in his consistency — and consistency is so hard to capture. He had 1,815 hits at home and 1,815 hits on the road. He hit .300 for 16 consecutive years and won seven batting titles. He led the league in runs five times, in RBIs twice, he walked 100 times or more three times. And so on. And so on.

Then, maybe it’s because his greatness was in his class — and class is hard to capture too. Nobody has ever been more loved — by teammates and competitors alike — than Stan Musial. Nobody ever played the game with more heart."

per MLBTR, the Sox are shopping him and “have informed teams that they are willing to assume virtually all of shortstop Julio Lugo’s remaining salary in a trade.”

He’s under contract next year as well.

Move him to 2nd and put Skip in LF?

not sure if i’m diggin julo lugo…freddie sanchez, yes. it will cost more but makes more sense to me. lugo has always came off to me as a wannabe thug. and now he’s underacheiving. are they paying next years salary as well? no thanks

Aaron Harang was talking to the broadcasters with the headset in the dugout. And he may be the dullest human on the planet. Also, Homer Bailey…not so good. But you knew that.

mild “stiffness” today…(strauss twitter)…i’ll be soooo pissed off if he got hurt in that stupid ass homerun derby

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/dancaesar/story/C12877188F080525862575F6000A9483?OpenDocument