First Half Relievers
by chuckb on Jul 12, 2009 2:00 AM EDT
in News
70 comments
The best relievers on the team over the first half have been Franklin (5.3 RAR) and the 2 lefties – Trever Miller (2.1 RAR) and Dennys Reyes (1.1 RAR). Aside from those 3, the Cards’ pen has been rather pedestrian w/ only Kyle McClellan getting meaningful innings out of the pen and pitching above replacement level.
In comparing the division’s bullpens I wanted to look at the top 4 relievers (by RAR, provided they have a meaningful number of innings pitched) since those are the ones most likely to get meaningful innings during the second half of the season. This means examining each team’s closer, set up man, and a couple of specialists. After all, it doesn’t really matter how well Blake Hawksworth pitched yesterday afternoon since the team had very little chance to win the game when he entered anyway. It does, however, matter how well Franklin, Motte, McClellan, and the 2 lefties pitch in the 2nd half.
| Cards | RAR | Brewers | RAR | Cubs | RAR | Reds | RAR | Astros | RAR | Pirates | RAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | 5.3 | Hoffman | 8.5 | Guzman | 4.3 | Cordero | 7.8 | Sampson | 8.9 | Grabow | 0.8 |
| Miller | 2.1 | Coffey | 8.1 | Heilman | 1.0 | Masset | 7.5 | Fulchino | 3.2 | Chavez | 0.1 |
| Reyes | 1.1 | Stetter | 5.8 | Gregg | 0.6 | Rhodes | 3.5 | Hawkins | 2.4 | Meek | -0.6 |
| McClellan | 0.4 | DiFelice | 4.6 | Marmol | -0.2 | Herrera | 3.3 | Valverde | 0.9 | Capps | -2.0 |
So the picture for the bullpen isn’t quite so rosy as that for the rotation. As with yesterday, these numbers can’t be seen as being predictive of what might happen in the second half. They’re simply a reporting of what happened during the first half. I’d expect, for example, for Jose Valverde’s numbers to rise since he was hurt for about 6 weeks during the first half. The team totals for their respective pens are as follows:
- Brewers – 27.0 RAR
- Reds – 22.1 RAR
- Astros – 15.4 RAR
- Cards – 8.9 RAR
- Cubs – 5.7 RAR
- Pirates – minus 1.7 RAR
- Cards – 87.1 RAR
- Cubs – 72.9 RAR
- Astros – 66.8 RAR
- Reds – 50.4 RAR
- Pirates – 49.5 RAR
- Brewers – 42.7 RAR
Double header today. First game at noon and then the nightcap at 7. There will be separate game threads for each. Join us and let’s get to the All-Star break w/ a split and I’ll be happy.
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1am main post copy/paste alert!
You have a couple of copy/paste/edit artifacts you might want to prune for clarity:
1st: " The team totals for their respective pens are as follows: The totals for the teams’ 5 starters are as follows: "
2nd: " Adding in the totals of the starters, this brings each team’s rotation’s numbers to: The totals for the teams’ 5 starters are as follows: "
Also, just out of curiosity, what is Motte’s RAR for the 1st half (since he didn’t make the cut for the table)?
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Jul 12, 2009 2:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs is your friend:
short answer: -0.3. for comparison, Chris Perez is -1.4. so far, at least, we traded the right guy.
by kindred on Jul 12, 2009 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You stole ALL of my points.
Well played. (I just happened to see this 6 hours after you…)
by stlfan on Jul 12, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Troy Glaus
went 1-for-5 with a walk, a hit and 2 strikeouts in his rehab debut for Palm Beach. In fact, he had a chance to give Palm Beach the lead in the 9th with the bases loaded and 2 outs, and he struck out swinging.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 12, 2009 3:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
doesn't even qualify as a sample size, as it's only 1 instance
but we don’t need him back if he’s gonna be another lame bat in high leverage situations. but this is why its a rehab. *knock on wood, he’ll progress as his stint goes on…
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
by BVHeck on Jul 12, 2009 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but he has a history of coming through in high leverage
way more than 1 AB.
by Evilfrog on Jul 12, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, what you're saying is...
he’s already better than Rick Ankiel…..
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 12, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Joe Thurston
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
by MilCardFan on Jul 12, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mid season form -beam him up, Mo - he can't be worse than the Thurst . . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on Jul 12, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but can he throw?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Short answer...
no.
Unless/until Glaus can make a throw across the diamond, he’s only useful in September when rosters expand. I don’t see TLR/Mo carrying a guy who can only pinch-hit.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 12, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what I thought
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish they would.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 13, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FRANK THOMAS
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jul 13, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus was the DH
I’m not going to see him as a viable option until he’s playing 3B. As of right now, he’s just another guy in the minors.
by chuckb on Jul 12, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question
may have been discussed already, but, why did they start Glaus’ rehab assignment if he can’t throw? Does the rehab assignment limit run through the ASB, as in a DL assignment is for 15 days, not 15 games? If so, it seems like an odd move to me to start that clock for him knowing that he is not able to make the throws he needs to make.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Jul 12, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's up to 20 games.
And maybe they’re looking to flip him to an AL team? But that seems highly unlikely.
My guess is that Troy said he was ready so they said, “Let’s see.”
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jul 12, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he can hit
He has a place on the bench as a ph. If we got into extra innings and he had to play he could go to 1b and Albert to 3rd. Only in emergency situations.
If he is hitting his value was shown in the 9th yesterday. If Skip reaches, Ankiel was the option. That can’t happen. We waste roster spots on worse. Why not waste it on a guy who can help for once instead of the walking dead?
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 12, 2009 11:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Holy crap.....
I agree.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 12, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really think that's the way it'll play out
For one thing, I don’t want Pujols playing 3rd under any circumstances, and I don’t think Tony does either, though I’m just speculating. And while I’ll agree that I’d rather have Glaus hitting in the 9th yesterday instead of Ankiel, I’m not sure it’s at all a good use of a roster spot to have someone who can ONLY pinch hit. OTOH, if he’s replacing our 13th pitcher — who never pitches — maybe it is an improvement. But he’ll have almost no value whatsoever to the team.
by chuckb on Jul 12, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus' arm
Do we really understand Glaus’ arm issues? Is it that he isn’t 100%, that he can’t throw as well as before, that he can’t throw on bunt, that his arm hurts when he throws?
The facts on this have been scarce unless I missed an official article. I’d be willing to bet he can play third at some level —maybe not at last year’s level in which case I’d add him as soon as ready to hit and hope for the best. Hard to believe you could swing a bat and not be able to throw a ball at all.
I’ll be interested to see the next medical update. I bet he’s a lot closer than we think.
Just win
by The Duke on Jul 12, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's been reported
that he cannot throw 90 feet, regardless of game conditions or situations. He cannot throw across the diamond.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jul 12, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's the case, then ...
why do we think he’ll provide any kind of damage with the bat? I could be wrong, but I don’t see how he has any power in his swing if he can’t throw. I know it’s a different motion, but I’m a little confused by that.
by etp_stl on Jul 12, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT: HL...
I have the game from yesterday recorded on my box. Do you still want it and how do I go about taking it off my DVR and get it to you?
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Jul 12, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he's playing 1B,
i’s rather see albert play 2B
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 12, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, nice
so either he hits the dl again or we see him within 19 days. good news
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this actually gives me hope...
… i think that McClellan, Motte, Reyes, and Kinney can improve in the 2nd-half, enough to off-set the inevitable Franklin regression.
judging by their past numbers, i think that Coffey, Stetter, and (maybe) DiFelice will regress. Hoffman too: if he keeps up his first-half pace, then it would be his best season since 2005. that is unlikely for a 42 year old.
and while Marmol should maybe improve, Gregg and Heilman probably won’t, and Guzman might regress.
i think this bullpen can get the job done. maybe not best in the division, but i think they can perform better than they have so far. if the Brewers regress a bit as they should, then the gap should narrow. and our advantage in SP is pretty steep despite missing close to a half-season from Carp/Lohse. i think we’re in pretty good shape.
by kindred on Jul 12, 2009 4:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice post chuck.
Going to be heading off to Wrigleyville in about a half an hour. I’m thinking a sweep of the day….
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 12, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Kinny could come around
that would be a big boost. Hopefully that can happen,
by ridgesee on Jul 12, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Marmol
I’m not so sure I’d bet on him pitching better down the stretch. To be quite blunt, Lou really abuses him. He’s already pitched in 44 games (40.1 IP) and he’s probably warmed up in close to 70 or so games. And it’s not always in good situations either. Lou had him close out an 8-2 game last week (I think that was the score). Lou wore his ass out last year and he’s now on pace to pitch in even more games this year.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jul 12, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's on that pace
‘cause he sucks. Lou is desperate to get him back to non-sucking. If Marmol can’t cut it, their pen can’t cut it.
That said, yeah, he pitched a ton last year or the year before, can’t remember which, and it might be carrying over.
I need to ask a Cub fan…. to me, Marmol looks a LOT heavier this year.
by sdrone on Jul 12, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's on that pace
Because it’s either him or Aaron Heilman, for the most part. I am not impressed with the Cubs bullpen.
Thoughts on the Vikings, Buckeyes, and Cardinals
www.purplebuckeye.blogspot.com
by MilCardFan on Jul 12, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopeful signs, maybe team's had its injury quotient. Lots of characters in the wings . . .
Dero, Glaus, Lohse and it’s impossible for Dick and Dunc to be worse – only hope that Tony dispatches them (and Thursty) to some well deserved R & R in Batavia or Johnson City. If they continue to spiral downward maybe even the Nats.
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on Jul 12, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Remember Murphy's Law
Nothing is so bad that it can’t get worse…but in Dickn’Dunc’s I don’t see how it possibly could. I think so recovery from Broken Bat Syndrome would be a good move. If they are gonna suck then let the prospects have a go.
by cardfanndeboonies on Jul 12, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT: will Matt Cain be replaced?
Who replaces him?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
gah, post fail
In the All Star Game.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably...
I’d vote for Carp (pitched Friday), but Charlie Manuel has the final say…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 12, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe one of the Braves
Guessing.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it should be
Javier Vazquez. He got completely screwed. Him or Ubaldo Jimenez, I’d say.
by chuckb on Jul 12, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the replacement will have a J in his name
…which doesn’t rule out Joel Piniero, oddly enough.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pineiro (sp)
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to a Strauss tweet a bit ago...
“Carp still in play for A-S Game. Zach Duke to replace M. Cain; Broxton spot still open. First dibs to Brian Wilson, then apparently Carp.”
So take it for what it’s worth…
"Fortune favors the bold!" - Virgil
by player2bnamedl8r on Jul 12, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
apparently I was totally wrong about the J's
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zach Duke?
Are you f-ing kidding me? Is Charlie Manuel trying to lose the game on purpose? There are about 10 starters who would be better choices than Duke, including another Pirate — Paul Maholm. What an imbecile!
by chuckb on Jul 12, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
New tweet from Strauss
“Hoffman for Broxton; Carp’ apparently no go.”
"Fortune favors the bold!" - Virgil
by player2bnamedl8r on Jul 12, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good
i hate seeing my started in the ASG
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jul 12, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this may be my favorite picture of ... this half of the season
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/photos/first-half-relievers/144829
If only there were a split-screen of Yadi’s post-pickoff Look.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 12, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
agreed
that is awesome.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 13, 2009 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did anybody see the Pirates get a little T.E.S.S. of their own last night?
Phillies came back from a 4 run deficit in the bottom of the 9th and put a 5-spot on Matt Capps to walk off. Awesome.
by cloistermaximus on Jul 12, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What does TESS mean?
I’ve seen the acronym a few times here…
by vexedtechie on Jul 12, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Testicle Exploding Shit Storm
Happened on July 12th, 2008.
There really should be an inclusion of it in a VEB FAQ or something since everybody asks about it all the time. For those that were here on the board, it’s known as the most soul crushing loss we’ve sat through as a community.
by cloistermaximus on Jul 12, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy shit, it's the one fucking year anniversary!
Maybe I shouldn’t watch the games today.
by cloistermaximus on Jul 12, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why do you think i laid low all weekend?
i haven’t slept since the team landed in the windy city
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jul 13, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The McLellan numbers are wacky
’cause the other day I was looking at his stats and they seemed awesome. A few bad appearances? I wonder what the deal is.
by sdrone on Jul 12, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lineups per STLToday.com
Schumaker 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Duncan LF
Thurston 3B
LaRue C
Lohse P
Ryan SS
Ugh… Thurston batting 6th?!
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Jul 12, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Better than LaRue.....
batting there. At least Thursty can draw a walk.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 12, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'd rather have LaRue there
Whatever as long as we win…
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Jul 12, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
numbers don't lie
and I feel guilty of ‘casual’ stupidity…namely, I saw my Oakland A’s friend a few days ago and we were swapping first half overviews. Among the clauses I uttered was, “the bullpen has been good.”
I suppose I had Franklin on the brain — or — more likely, I have been so fixated on the 3b and LF situations that my venom (such as it was) was directed there. Or, maybe I am still stung by the performance of the ‘08 bullpen.
Anyway, thanks Chuck for a deeper perspective.
Oh, it also may be because, for me, the lack of Izzy in a Cardinals’ uniform has a long (happy) shelf life.
by the Tewk on Jul 12, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OT: John Kruk is a tool...
He pronounced “Colby Rasmus” as “C’Cody Rosmus”
Learn the ROTY’s name, please?
by vexedtechie on Jul 12, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And he thinks the Cubs are the only team in the division
What a fuckin moron
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Jul 12, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bulbs and splash
Colby needs to quit being so quietly efficient… maybe bust his head against the outfield wall making a catch… or, quit hitting the cut-off man and throw a bullet to home plate. And he needs more crazy mannerisms when batting instead of that boringly still concentration he has.
Also, Kruk (who I usually like in a buffoon sort of way) joins many others at ESPN at not being one of the brighter bulbs on the planet.
by the Tewk on Jul 12, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya I hardly ever watch ESPN anymore
Thank goodness for MLBN!
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Jul 12, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i realize this is way past the prime time of this post.
and if someone pointed this out earlier, i apologize, but the brewers are getting almost twice as much value above replacement from their relievers as from their starters.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 13, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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