Inspired by Derrick Goold's look at Pujols' chances of winning the batting title, I have taken a look at the numbers regarding the NL HR and RBI race.  I believe (and I dont' think it's an uncommon belief) the biggest obstacle to Pujols getting the Triple Crown this season is the fact that he will likely be walked more and more as the season begins.  Unfortunately, I don't have a way of using that as a predictor - if anyone does, please enlighten me.  Also, I noted to day that STL has played more games than every team except Florida, which could be inflating El Hombre's stats. So, what I did was look at the top 7 in each category and find pace based on team games as well as games played and also looked at career rates in an attempt to predict where players might end up.

Teams and players involved: Florida: Hanley Ramirez; Washington: Adam Dunn; Philly: Ibanez, Howard, Utley; Arizona: Mark Reynolds; Milwaukee: Prince Fielder; SD: Adrian Gonzalez; STL: Pujols.  I also looked at Beltran (NYM), since he has a great BA and has played about 20 games less than almost everyone else on that list.

(All numbers as of this morning)

Pujols currently has an 8 HR lead and an 8 RBI lead, but has played the most games in the NL.  If all players in the top-7 keep playing at the same rate they have been taking the field (i.e. games played / team games), the final rankings will look like this:

HR  (HR/Team games * 162)

1. Pujols 59

2T. Gonzalez 45

2T. Reynolds 44

4. Ibanez 42

4T. Dunn 42

6T. Fielder 41

6T. Howard 41

8. Utley 39

RBI (RBI/Team games * 162)

1. Pujols 156

2. Fielder 145

3. Howard 122

4. Utley 118

5. Reynolds 116

6T. Dunn 114

6T. Ibanez 114

8. Ramirez 110

I figured that didn't account for any injuries that a player had suffered this season and wasn't likely to re-suffer, so I next looked at Expected HR (or RBI) if a player played in ALL remaining team games, based on their current pace of HR (or RBI) per game.  With one major exception, the standings don't change that much:

HR (current HR + HR/Games Played * Remaining Team Games)

1. Pujols 59

2. Ibanez 50

3T. Gonzalez 45

3T. Reynolds 45

5. Dunn 42

6T. Fielder 41

6T. Howard 41

8. Utley 39

(Carlos Beltran should end up with 18 HR using this metric).  Ibanez shoots up the rankings based on the fact that he has only played in 62 games so far this season.

RBI (current RBI + RBI/Games Played * Remaining Team Games)

1. Pujols 157

2. Fielder 145

3. Ibanez 133

4. Howard 122

5. Utley 119

6. Reynolds 117

7. Ramirez 116

8. Dunn 114

(Beltran should end up with 90 RBI using this metric)  Some shakeup at the bottom, and Ibanez moves up the ranking solidly, but not nearly enough to surpass Fielder or Pujols.

How about career pace?  A player could be hot right now, and over the course of a season, players tend to end up about where their careers show they should.  Using career pace over the number of team games remaining (same calculation as last metric, but career numbers rather than season numbers), the numbers are significantly different, indicating how hot some of these guys have been.  HR is a little more reliable,as it depends much less on team help than RBI (which is at least 50% team performance).

HR (expected, using career pace of HR/Game)

1. Pujols 52

2. Howard 45

3. Dunn 42

4. Fielder 39

4T. Reynolds 39

4T. Gonzalez 39

7. Utley 34

8. Ibanez 33

(Beltran should end up with 22 HR this season, based on career pace).  While Pujols is still safe, you can really see who is playing out of their minds.

RBI (expected, using career pace of RBI/Game)

1. Pujols 144

2. Howard 130

3. Fielder 126

4. Dunn 114

4T. Utley 114

6. Reynolds 110

7. Ibanez 105

8. Ramirez 96

(Beltran should end up with about 91 RBI this season).

All standard disclaimers apply (injuries, hot streaks, teams pitching around Pujols, etc), but these numbers certainly make it appear that Pujols has a great chance, even if he doesn't get pitched to much, of winning the RBI and HR crowns.

There doesn't appear to be anyone else who can break 50 HR (Ibanez is the only one in these projections that gets past 45, and his career certainly indicates that 40 will be a stretch).  So, 15 - 20 more HR in the next 74ish games for Pujols and he should be safe in that category.  Another month like June, and he's sitting at 46 before you can blink. 

RBI will be tougher, it looks like 150 should be impossible for anyone else to reach, and 140 might be safe.  This means another 60 RBI in the next 2 1/2 months.  Certainly possible, the way he's been playing this season.  However, BOTH of these numbers would be career highs, which casts some doubt on his ability.  I think that the batting title will be his best chance, unless Joey Votto is still hitting around .360 after another 280 AB.  He's only 11 points behind a guy who is currently batting more than 15 points above his best season ever and is tied with a guy (Beltran) who is 30 points above his best ever season.  The less teams pitch to him, the better chance he has of increasing his average.