Albert and the 7 Dwarfs

There's a missing dwarf in the last paragraph.

Maybe a dead dwarf?

I’d like to see the Cardinals shuffle up some of the other AAA players as you suggested. It’s obvious that Barden has no place on this team right now and I’d rather see if Mather is healthy and can hit big leaguers again. I’m still expecting a Jason Werth type season out of him.

It seems like the Cardinals could make some gains by playing BRyan and TGreene in the middle infield and move Skippy’s bat back to the outfield where his defense isn’t awful. You get the added defensive value and a better bat since Ankiel and Duncan seem to be swinging their purses at the plate.

There’s some internal moves that the team could make, which seem pretty clear, but I get the distinct impression that they’re again waiting for outside help and this is part of TLR’s way to pressure the front office.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree Completely

I think they are waiting for outside help. Its not like the Cards dont have several positions that can be upgraded – they are not going to be picky shoppers….

by njnick on Jun 8, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree completely

I’d like to see vs RHP:

LF Schu
RF Ludwick (til he gets the bat going)
1B Pujols
CF Rasmus (can’t be worse at cleanup than anyone else)
3B Mather
SS Ty Greene
C Yadi
2B Ryan

A lot of holes out there right now…

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

To that lineup. It shores up the defense in the middle and potentially adds a little offensive production with Greene’s bat, plugs some offensive production (though still little power, but I’ll take what we can get) + a defensive upgrade into Left, and hopefully adds some pop at the 3B position—not huge upgrades, mind you, but definite improvements in the short term while we look for outside help. These are all things that can be done RIGHT NOW to improve this team. But will they be done? Probably not…

by mattyp on Jun 8, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So.....

Remove our 2nd best hitter to date from the lineup?

Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan

by SoonerfanTU on Jun 8, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thurston?

More or less forgot about him. I’d put him at 2nd over Ryan.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Mather at 3rd is a mistake

there’s a reason he didn’t stick there in Spring Training.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought defensively he was fine...

but he came up injured and went in the tank offensively. Did he get moved to the OF before the end of ST? It does seem like he was playing mostly OF at Memphis in April before going on the DL.

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Mather is the answer at 3B personally.

I’d rather the Cardinals trade for Beltre and utilize Thurston in a utility role.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

neither do I

but i think you could platoon him there with Thurston while we look for outside help

by mattyp on Jun 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to see Mather or Craig get called up

Either/Both could get PAs vs. LHPing.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 8, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he wouldn't be as good if he was playing everyday.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who? Thurston?

He pretty much has been, but nice try.

Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan

by SoonerfanTU on Jun 8, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You made the comment about Rasmus the other day

and how his stats would suffer in an everyday role.

Rasmus – 181PAs
Thurston – 165PAs

If you weren’t such a self-righteous a$$ all the time, people might be more open to your viewpoints.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

and colby has had

50% more PA’s vs LHP, as well. Thurston has (rightly) been pretty strictly platooned. Though it is interesting that JT has a .960 OPS against LHP so far, in the limited exposure he’s had.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on Jun 8, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus

has been our 2nd best hitter — by a hair over Ludwick and Thurston.

by chuckb on Jun 8, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't really know how you can not put Thurston at second vs. RHP

He’s been one of the most productive bats so far. (It is sad to say that.)

by mojowo11 on Jun 8, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They may be waiting for outside help

but isn’t that a little foolish? What has happened in the past couple seasons that would inspire them to think anything is on it’s way? They waited and even listened as their manager openly campaigned for a bat to be added to the lineup only to be basically ignored. You may be right, they may be waiting, but I’m not sure what’s been said to them to make them think something’s different this year.

And I’m by no way advocating selling the farm for Matt Holliday. I’m just wondering where their “hope” is coming from since the front office hasn’t really provided much the past couple of seasons either during season or in the offseason.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with moving schu to the OF at the moment

I’m beginning to believe Dunc/Ank might be a lost cause this year if we want to compete – if it’s a rebuilding year, we can let them hack away to try to get back what they once had at the plate but, as chuck points out, both have been bad now for a not inconsiderable amount of time – with Dunc’s crappy D, he was last relevant in early 2007. Ank has been a bad hitter since the middle of last year, and he’s probably only average as a corner OF.

I would move Schu to LF and pick up a right-handed bat to platoon with him – as I mentioned before, I imagine Austin Kearns can be had for next to nothing – he’s cheap, about an average hitter (hits lefties well) and is an excellent defensive RF, so could handle the position with the glove. Schu plus Kearns platoon = above-average production from LF. If Mather can come up and show (pretty quick) that he can still hit at this level, we don’t even need to get Kearns as Mather’s probably just as good. Ludwick starts every day in right, Rasmus starts every day in centre. Pick one out of Ank/Dunc/Mather/Stavi/whoever to be the 5th OF. We could even carry 2 of them if we weren’t carrying 8 f’ing relievers. I really think this, plus trading for a respectable 3B (I’m still on the DeRosa bandwagon but Beltre would be fine too) would solve a lot of our issues.

We use Thurston/Ryan platoon at 2B, Greene plus Ryan at SS, send down the rest of the damn middle infielders, and Schu can play at 2nd in a pinch. Greene and Ryan are both +ve defensive SSs. If we have DeRosa, that’s another guy who can play any position, so we don’t need the flexibility of a Barden-type. That, plus sending down a reliever, leaves some space for some actual hitters on the bench, rather than having Wellemeyer and Waino pinch hitting with a bunch of crappy middle infielders.

We now have a defense of Thurston (maybe average) and Ryan () at 2B, Ryan/Greene at SS (), DeRosa/Beltre at 3B (+ or avge), Pujols at 1B (), Yadi catching (), Schu/Mather/Kearns in LF (all ), Rasmus in centre () and Ludwick in right (+). So, we now have a better hitting team, a deeper bench, and PLUS DEFENDERS AT EVERY SINGLE SPOT IN THE LINEUP. All it’ll take is (possibly) a low-level prospect package to land kearns (may not even be necessary if Mather hits) and to trade (maybe) someone like Chris Perez and possibly one of our lower ceiling back-of-the-rotation pitching prospects for DeRosa/Beltre.

This improves our team a lot, and costs very little. We hit better, we field better. No big prospects are burnt, we don’t need to kill the budget; rightly so, because although we’re a contender in the NL central this year, we’re not one of the better teams in baseball so going all-in on a “win now” would be foolish. We might need to risk losing ank or dunc, but both are possibly gone in the winter anyhow, neither have any value (I’d be happy to trade either for a bag of balls at the moment, especially ank, who REALLY should’ve been dealt over the last winter) and neither would get much playing time for the rest of 2009 in our contending team in this plan anyhow, so no major loss.

Tony/Mo, please please do this. Don’t let us slip out of contention in a winning division for the want of making a couple of straightforward moves.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

uttered the same yesterday. wonder if enough of us say it, it will come true?

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jun 8, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That wasn't a very fun list of random facts.

by BTown Birds fan on Jun 8, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No...no it wasn't.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAPPY MONDAY!!!!

by cdb on Jun 8, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I felt like I was reading an article with facts from The Great Recession of the 2000s

I think it is safe to say that both are wide and deep…

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 8, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't bare to read the stat lines in that post.

I glossed over them. It would have been easier on the eyes if instead you just substitute the word BAD for every numerical stat.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heh

This year Cardinals 3B are hitting BAD/BAD/BAD for an OPS of BAD+BAD=STILL BAD.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

That's better!

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

couldn't bare?

do you usually disrobe to read stat lines? Not judging, by the way…

by mattyp on Jun 8, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's good stuff...

right there. Freudian?

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you ?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it to early for a David Carradine joke?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor

by themanthemyth on Jun 8, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It made me sick too

I think this season is going to be very long.

They x-rayed my head and didn't find anything.

Dizzy Dean

by DizzyDean on Jun 8, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it all boils down to

“Only 2 NL teams have swung at a higher % of pitches outside the strike zone than the Cards have.”

Fix that, and the offense will come around.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on Jun 8, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely...

I wasn’t so surprised to see that Thurston has swung at more first pitches than anybody else (is that by % or count…cause Brendan likes to swing at pitch #1)…what surprises me is that Thursty has walked as much as he has in spite of how aggressive he can be at times.

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i chalk a lot of this up to tony's demand that people be more aggressive back in late april.

some of the offensive decline is clearly injury related (ankiel, ludwick) and some is random noise that will filter out. i look at the offensive output and think that what is not attributable to those two factors is probably related to this BS about guys not swinging aggressively.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think we're being overly critical of tlr

to put this on him. These guys are professional hitters.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who,

like most professionals, have to follow company guidelines.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on Jun 8, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, what else is more likely to systematically make a team full of hitters stop hitting?

if it’s not random chance (which probably does play a big role), then a team-wide change in approach at the plate would be what you’d look for.

what is going to carry more weight than the manager’s statement?

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna say random chance

I wonder if we’re swinging at more pitches (and more first pitches, specifically) since that statement? That’d be evidence that would support your assertion, maybe you could look that up.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

out-of-zone swings

ankiel: 41.5% (May) 35.9% (Apr)
LaRue: 37.0% (May) 35.7% (Apr)
KGreene: 34.1% (May) 21.6% (Apr)
Barden: 29.4% (May) 21.9% (Apr)
Skippy: 27.9% (May) 22.4% (Apr)
Dunc: 27.6% (May) 17.6% (Apr)
Colby: 25.7% (May) 16.2% (Apr)
Yadi: 25.9% (May) 17.4% (Apr)
Ludwick: 21.3%(May) 32.9% (Apr)
Albert: 23.6% (May) 21.0% (Apr)
BRyan: 15.8% (May) 26.4% (Apr)
Thurston: 21.5% (may) 28.6% (Apr)

Among positions players, only Ludwick, Thurston, and Brendan Ryan improved their plate discipline (in terms of swinging at pitches out of the zone) in May. Most people got worse, some remarkably worse — Duncan swung at 10% more balls out of the zone, Colby 9%, Barden 8%.

That’s a huge factor. Some of it may be just that they don’t get as many hittable pitches with big hitters out of the lineup, some of it may be the pitchers they faced, some of it may be a sense that they need to produce more with big hitters out of the lineup.

But the inevitable outcome of swinging more at bad pitches is a decreased walk rate, fewer hits (since the contact rate is low outside the zone), and more outs. I think it’s fair to blame the manager when he gives his players advice, the players take that advice, and play worse because of it.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Larussa

Larussa didn’t tell them to swing at shitty pitches. They are Professional hitters who need to determine a good pitch to swing at vs. a pitch to take.

I think Larussa wanted them being more aggressive on early count pitches that were in the strike zone.

You can’t blame larussa for players having poor pitch recognition.

by ICbirdfan on Jun 8, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct about that

But I think a lot of people are worried that Tony tried to fix something that wasn’t broke. I dunno, maybe he thought we were getting lucky or something early on. The problem was that most people were excited about how patient the team appeared to be early on. Then Tony said something about “aggressiveness” and this seemed to correlate with a sharp, team-wide drop in patience, often assumed to be the antipode of “aggressiveness”. It is not so simple in real life of course.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree....

When Larussa/coaches talk about being aggressive I think about certain counts…

0-0 If the pitcher throws a ball right down the middle or a crappy get me over curve then hammer the pitch..

2-0 Don’t automatically take a pitch if it is groove.

3-0 It is ok to have the green light if you get your pitch.

Just don’t expend the zone in those counts as the pitcher still have to bring you more strikes.

by ICbirdfan on Jun 8, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno, maybe he thought we were getting lucky or something early on.

in which case, he was correct.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so, 75% of the players on the team decided spontaneously to swing more

at bad pitches? right after the manager told them to be more aggressive?

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather a manager let his players be aggressive...

Seems opposite of TLR though since he bunts at times where I don’t know why in the hell he is having a guy bunt… I would prefer he “let guys” be aggressing like Yadi. He loves to bunt with Yadi, just let Yadi push the ball to the right side. Yadi seems to be very good at that and maybe the ball will get through the infield…..

Back to you. You seem to want to blame something on Larussa. I am just saying he told the players to be more aggress and take advantage of mistake pitches. Is it his fault guys chose to expand the zone?

I don’t understand your desire to blame Larussa. You seem to want to blame him?

by ICbirdfan on Jun 8, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's pretty persuasive evidence then tom

although I still think the blame lies more with the players than the manager, and as you’ll have seen i’m far from a tlr fan in general.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this team is full of a bunch of aggressive swingers.

It’s been (and, they’ve been) that way for years. The only thing that’s different right now is that most of ’em are missing the ball.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, that's just wrong. i don't know how to say it any more politely.

i put the numbers up. more guys are SWINGING AT (not missing) balls out of the zone. that’s the opposite of what you said.

what is different is that they are swinging at more balls out of the zone, not simply that they are missing the ball more.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question....

1. What is the career average for each player?

Who is to say Joe Thurston type guys are not nearly as good as they showed in April. Lets face it some guys were bound to regress.

Also maybe pitchers are more sharp now than they were in April. My question is does a guy get credit for not swining at a pitch that is 4 inches off the plate? A player should not get credit for taking a pitch that far off the plate.

I guess I don’t know what to think other than the players are just not hitting right now. I don’t know if it should be a surprise. Did you think some guys would continue to hit how they did early in the year?

by ICbirdfan on Jun 8, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes and no.

There’s almost no one on this team who isn’t a swinger. Skip, Ludwick, Ankiel, Molina, Glaus, Ryan, Khalil. Really, outside of Pujols, Duncan is probably the most patient hitter on the team.

Just don’t misunderstand my words. Just because I said they’re swingers doesn’t mean they were constantly swinging at pitches all over the place. But, when swingers struggle, the often expand the zone and swing a bad pitches. Now, this could result in misses but often it results in weak grounders and pop ups.

Also, you can be an aggressive swinger and not necessarily be swinging at pitches out of zone. You just have better pitch recognition and lay off those pitches.

Ultimately though, I think this “problem” is more about naturally aggressive swingers who are all (okay, most) struggling and expanding the zone which makes things worse. “Aggressive” can be good and it can be bad. Obviously, LaRussa doesn’t want his hitters swinging nilly-willy at everything they see. But there is a benefit to being aggressive with the first fastball you see.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You summed it up very well Tacke Box.... Could not have said it better myself

by ICbirdfan on Jun 8, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well if Tony is responsible for others not hitting is he also responsible for Alberts sick Offensive stats this year?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

albert is producing at more or less the same levels as he has for the last eight years.

it’s not surprising that tony’s admonition would have more of an impact on, say, colby or brian barden than on albert.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barden isn't very good

that’s why he’s regressed to what he is – a mediocre hitter who’s probably OK as a backup utility player. His minor league stats do not support the likelihood of him being a .800+ OPS guy at major league level….

Barden and Thurston were both hitting way over their head in april and it was pretty obvious that they were both gonna regress. Molina hitting a slump is troubling, as he looked like he’d taken yet another step forward in his career as a hitter in April, but maybe that’s sort of a false dawn. Still, he’s no more than a mediocre hitter for the most part, and he was always a free swinger.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

barden was not always a free swinger.

as you can see above, he was swinging at about the same rate in April at out of zone pitches as other players. he did dramatically increase his out of zone swinging in may.

his babip also dropped dramatically in may to .146 from .400 in april. he’s not nearly as good as he was in april, but he’s not nearly as bad as he has been in may.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about we bring in Mark McGwire?

I think a lot of these young guys would respect and listen to him and if they don’t he can body slam them to the ground.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you want to know the horrifying truth?

You guys suck!

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

chuckb's Monday post, the abridged version:

We suck.

I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain

by jd is legend on Jun 8, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not quite

More like: “We all suck except Pujols.”

by mojowo11 on Jun 8, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe

“We even have Albert Pujols and we still suck.”

I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain

by jd is legend on Jun 8, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Thanks for the extremely depressing realization.

unrec’d

Mang Says...
"There is no "I" in team, or in B g Mac Land, either."

by all4tookie on Jun 8, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can get on board with that version.

It’s appropriately depressing for today’s post.

by mojowo11 on Jun 8, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the plus side

The Cards are 2 games back of division lead and tied for the Wild Card.

Unfortunately this is probably what DeWitt, Mo, Tony and Luhnow look at when judging performance and determining what steps should be made to improve the team. I wonder if there aren’t some interesting power plays going on between Mo, Luhnow and LaRussa regarding team direction and personnel moves.

Some moves are needed on the offensive side, but the moves will probably continue to be mind boggling.

by ubeddie on Jun 8, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I doubt LaRussa is

He’s just beginning to voice his displeasure. I would guess he is a little more than displeased.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Tony will get so displease

that he’ll finally notice his team isn’t taking any walks and is swinging at everything. Then he might tell the team to start being patient again.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much of that comes down to McRae?

His quote in the P-D bothers me.

“We’re not putting anything together,” hitting coach Hal McRae said. “We’re not getting runners on base. We’re not bunching any hits. We’re not getting any bases on balls. I can’t think of what the reason is. I know it’s not occurring. I don’t have an explanation for it.”

That says a lot to me. Maybe it’s time for a coaching change.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

quote fail

the last line was mine.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, it at least looks like Hal is recognizing the symptoms

I know squat about how much the manager/hitting coach can really do to get their players to hit better, but yeah. It’s a little scary right now.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FJM moment

He spells out what we all know thanks to Chuck’s post and also by watching any game in the last month, that the team is lacking patience.

Then he says he doesn’t know what is happening.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh. Imagine the Police scene.

It’s clear that the victim has been stabbed because there is a stab wound in his abdomen. Also, there’s definitely a knife with his blood on it right here at the crime scene. Furthermore, some dude the police brought in has his fingerprints all over the knife and confessed to stabbing someone last night. I just have no idea what is going on here!

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

Rec'd

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's been my thinking too

I think this comes down to the hitting coach. Look at Milwaukee. They changed hitting coaches and have seen drastci results. They are more patient now. Something has to be done. I don’t know anyone keeps their job when the results are this bad.

They x-rayed my head and didn't find anything.

Dizzy Dean

by DizzyDean on Jun 8, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not much.

He just makes sure their swings are consent. It’s not like he can stop them from swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.

by Evilfrog on Jun 8, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty amazed

Schu has not been a + bat so far. Decent Avg, decent OBP, hasn’t SLGed much but he’s basically the same hitter he was last year when he was a 2+ win player in LF. Is he above average this year by wOBA?

I know his defence is gonna suck at 2B but it surprises me that his bat isn’t above average (although I’m sure it’s above average for a 2B)…

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs sez;

Schu’s whoa-whoa-whoa-whoa-woba is .328, and the average so far this year is .331.

OK, now I’m confused. I recall that in a thread a few days ago (Friday maybe?) I was told that wOBA was scaled exactly to OBP, so that average OBP and average wOBA were equal by definition. Fangraphs has the 2009 average OBP at .335 and the average wOBA at .331. So either I misunderstood the math of it, or Fangraphs doesn’t update things daily in quite the manner I thought they did.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

guessing wOBA might be updated less frequently, so OBP is more up-to-date?

although .004 is quite a big difference in OBP, league-wide. Could be that they’re only properly scaled together at the end of the year…

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It did strike me as a big difference too

I just thought it was interesting. It probably has something to do with how they adjust it or whatever, as you say. The thing is, when whoever it was said that they were scaled perfectly I at first was very surprised, because I thought for sure I had seen different numbers in the average OBP and wOBA fields on fangraphs before. But then I decided I must have been remembering wrong, it made too much sense for them to just scale it to match OBP. So I was remembering correctly, but that doesn’t make it untrue. Fun times.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it's an exact scale.

EqA & GPA are both scaled to look like batting average to give you a frame of reference not to allow you to use the league average BA as the average for EqA or GPA. Same goes for wOBA and OBP.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_to_calculate_war/

…The .338 is whatever the league average wOBA is, which is EXACTLY equal to whatever the league average OBP is…

— Tom Tango, creator of wOBA

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba/

…First off, wOBA is a linear weight formula presented as a rate statistic scaled to On Base Percentage. Essentially, what that means is that average wOBA will always equal average OBP for any given year. If you know what the league’s OBP is, you know what the league’s wOBA is…

— Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

Seems exactly scaled to me, based on those quotes. Perhaps some lag is in the calculations, as another suggested. I’m also seeing an AL .339 OBP and NL .334 OBP over at Hardball Times (updated yesterday), both higher than Fangraphs’ quoted .331.

by astrostl on Jun 8, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I stand corrected.

There are some differences in how they handle reaching bases on errors and other trivial events that might cause the OBP discrepancy between sites.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where's Mo's diary at?

We need an entry into the mind of the man at the helm soon…..

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

amen.

those were hilarious. there’s a lot of material to work with right now, i’d imagine.

cardinals are the things with feathers that perch within the soul.

by ilrosso on Jun 8, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point I'm ready to buy TLR's argument that we need a bat

OTOH, if Yahoo is correct, K Mac gave up 4 runs and still has a WHIP of 1.2×. So I guess that’s good. We can get all these pitching blowups out of the way in 1 series.

by sdrone on Jun 8, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

KMac's FIP is pretty bad this year

too many walks. I’d rather see more of Motte/Perez/Reyes in the close 7th & 8th innings in the near future.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where are all the Ankiel defenders at?

I’d like any of those who were vehemently against an Ankiel trade in the offseason to please step forward and explain how any deal, no matter how small, could be worth less value than Rick Ankiel currently has to the Cardinals?

Chuckb made the case at least one time (and I’m pretty sure 2 or 3 others) that the best possible situation for the Cardinals would be to trade Ankiel prior to the season for pitching or middle infield help, and that was before Rasmus made the club out of spring training. People were screaming about letting the “next Jimmy Edmonds” out of the house for a bag of balls. I hope that most of us have now come to our senses, but it’s way too late to salvage anything of value for him now.

We’re currently paying him $2.825M to be worth about $4M less than that on the field. Yes, folks, the man actually has negative value to the club right now.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

from what I recall the consensus was that trading him would be OK

I certainly wouldn’t have minded it. Ian Kennedy was the one I wanted (don’t think the Ank-for-Hughes bandwagon was at all realistic).

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

I was under the impressing the majority of people here were in favor of trading Ankiel.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Rick is a blast to watch when he is on. But I believe most people would have been ok with trading him this off season for either pitching or middle infield help. At that time we had Mather, Barton, and Rasmus knocking on the Door.

by Evilfrog on Jun 8, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was down for Ank + some middling prospect for Kelly Johnson

But I think the Braves wanted Ludwick instead

I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain

by jd is legend on Jun 8, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do you want people to say? Sorry, you were right?

by njnick on Jun 8, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that hindsight?

Who knew he would struggle like this? We knew he was streaky but we’ve seen his potential.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and although I don't think we've got the time to let him get his stroke back

it’s not impossible that he will. He had a major abdominal injury that sapped his power at the back end of last year, and a collision that was somewhat akin to a car crash in CF this year. Remember how long Edmonds was ineffective with his post-concussion, before getting back to something like his best late-career form last year. You could argue that the injuries have something to do with his lack of production, although I feel that pitchers have figured him out somewhat and he was never that great a hitter to begin with. Either way, his approach at the moment sucks and he needs to be DLed again, traded for a bag of balls, or left on the bench as much as possible.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it's not hindsight

It’s our worst possible outcome realized — something that ChuckB pointed out in his post: Not trading Ankiel results in three possible outcomes and two of them are bad.

He hits like he did at the beginning of last season, helps the Cardinals stay in contention, and then walks at the end of the year to a big money deal someplace else. We might get a compensation pick for the trouble (even that is highly unlikely), but nothing more than that, so we get very little value if any value at all.
He hits decent, the Cardinals aren’t in contention due to injuries, and we trade him at the deadline for a prospect.
He hits like this, is worth nothing, and we have no reason to bring him back because of our depth in the outfield. He also has no trade value, so he’s essentially a worthless player.

I’d settle for #2, but #1 seems unlikely, and #3 is exactly where we are now. You didn’t need hindsight to come up with these scenarios before the season, and with the outfield depth that the Cardinals had, it was silly to not trade him for middle infield or pitching help if a deal was on the table. The only reason for keeping him would be if you thought he would hit 30+ HR and OPS above .850 and then take a sweetheart deal to stay in St. Louis. Otherwise there’s simply no reason to not trade him away when he still has value.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

do you want a cookie?

by Evilfrog on Jun 8, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying I was right, because I don't know what his value was on the trade market

I’m simply saying that nobody that was defending keeping him has been doing that in the last 6 weeks.

It’s easy to defend a guy and project him to be awesome and then just come up with a fancy trade idea for Matt Holliday when your guy doesn’t pan out. The consensus here is that he should have been dealt, regardless of the numbers that he was projected to put up this season, because he simply had his highest value to the Cardinals prior to the 2009 season. He was unlikely to be worth more than he was in February at any point this season.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're simply saying that the people who wanted to keep him

have realized their mistake and moved on?

I really don’t get where you’re going here.

by sdrone on Jun 8, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope that's the case...

…but I think there’s just a lot of people rooting for him because of his story and not evaluating him as a player. He’s not great defensively, he doesn’t seem to be able to make adjustments at the plate, and good pitchers own him because of it. He also seems to be injury prone.

Now he is worth nothing, so hopefully he can figure out a way to stop waving at sliders in the dirt and fastballs at eye-level and provide us with some sort of production the rest of this season. If not it’s a drastic mistake on the part of the front office for not trading him for something of value when the opportunity was there.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"...but I think there's a lot of people rooting for him because of his story"

Bingo. I have been very afraid of this. As much as we love our “stories” in sports they often contradict the more game theory-esque element (if I’m not butchering that term) which is to win. It’s a similar phenomenon to the love of marginal call-ups. We love that the “little guys” make it and (at least appear to) succeed. I mean little guys in terms of talent, not size. The difference is that those guys often come out of nowhere. It’s easy to love their story, but also a lot easier to let go of them once they stop being effective. Ankiel’s story, however, is almost mythical. It far predates his call up as an outfielder. The “story” in other words is more deeply rooted in our psyches for Ankiel and it is apparently more difficult to be realistic and prudent with him, even for the manager apparently. I don’t mean to single out Tony, it’s not as if he’s totally blind to Ankiel’s struggles. On the other hand, please somebody try to convince me that Tony has not played Ankiel more than he deserves to play.
We just want Ankiel to succeed way more than we should reasonably expect him to succeed. At least Cardinal Nation as a whole seems to.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Given his thusfar negative value

Ankiel not only hasn’t deserved to play, but he’d have best helped the team by playing for the other team every day.

by mojowo11 on Jun 8, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm broadly on your side here

as I’d have traded him in the off-season if anything decent was available too, but I dunno if it was a drastic mistake to keep him.

Duncan looked like a lost cause, Mather was still a one-season wonder in AAA and looked likely to be our starting 3B or corner IF/OF depth guy on the bench, and we weren’t certain colby would make a TLR-managed team out of spring training (I recall there was talk of keeping him down until June to delay the clock), and it appeared as if Ank’s production at the start of 08 was “real” (increase in power, taking more walks, swinging at less garbage pitches = good!) and his overall 2008 stats (and therefore arguably his value) were depressed by his injury, so there was a very real danger that we would trade him for, say, a mediocre prospect and only get back cents on the dollar, in terms of his value.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your forgetting that we moved Skip

precisely because of Ankiel’s presence in the outfield. If you trade him for a middle infielder like Martin Prado, Prado is hitting 7th and giving us better than league average defense at the second base position and Skip is probably still in LF, rotating with Duncan, Rasmus, and Ludwick, just like last year, only replacing Rick with Rasmus. You have Mather at the Corner IF, OF role, Ryan or Greene starting at SS and the other one as the utility guy.

We had enough depth in the outfield to let Rick go, but everyone was enamored with his potential to be a power hitting centerfielder. I’d just as soon let other teams be enamored with his potential while we glean a middle infielder that marginally improves our ballclub to better than league average at one of those two positions. That’s a smart business decision. Keeping him was not a smart business decision, which is essentially what I’ve been saying all along. It’s a great personal story, but you’ve got to get past that when evaluating his talent.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true

about skip, I mean, although i think our lack of a 2B played into it too (I think we should’ve just signed durham and been done with it, personally… more cheapskate antics from the front office).

Like I say, I’d have looked to move him, probably for pitching, but who knows if we could’ve got anything meaningful back? Ankiel only limped his way into being a 2-win CF last year.

I quite like the prado idea. Is his defence really any good? He’s been pretty bad at 2B so far in his (short) MLB career.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sign Durham

We should of just kept Kennedy

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or that

we do like dumping talent, don’t we – long list in the last year or two. Mind you, it was kinda kennedy’s fault he got released – he made the situation practically untenable for TLR and the org with his comments.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think tlr played his own special part

that was above and beyond what a normal manager would have said and done.

How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor

by themanthemyth on Jun 8, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

blasphemy

TLR never falls out with any of his players.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

He platooned and often didn’t play at all, a player who was absolutely horrible for the better part of two years and then that player got pissed and demanded a trade.

Obviously LaRussa mishandled that one…..

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say they moved Skip because....

there was a gaping hole at 2b and, whether Rick is here or not, Skip’s bat doesn’t play as a corner outfielder.

You seem to be just creating straw man throughout this thread. And all of it is predicated on the FO’s ability to get something worthwhile in a trade for Rick – a streaky, older, soon-to-be-FA with Boras as his agent, just-injured and oft-injured OF miscast as a CF. You don’t have a shred of evidence that the FO could have fetched anything valuable for Rick. Indeed, your entire argument is based on the fallacy that OTHER teams value Rick’s personal story over properly “evaluating his talent” and therefore would have given up something even remotely valuable for Rick.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 8, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Well put.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

I’m not saying that at all, actually. I’m saying that there was a complete lack of trade rumors about Ankiel last offseason and that there were a bunch of people who didn’t want to trade him at all or even have a discussion about it.

If the front office didn’t even try to move him, then that’s a very bad business decision, and I feel like this is exactly what happened, because moving him for just about any player of marginal value last winter would have been better than the alternative.

There’s no straw man here, sir. My entire argument is that when we get jaded with the words “story” and “potential” we let our feelings get in the way of making the proper business decisions. I have a hard time believing that a team looking for an left handed outfield bat, such as the Braves, wouldn’t have been interested in trading from a position of depth (middle infield) to acquire Ankiel. Considering they just overpaid in talent for Mclouth, I think my argument is justified.

Also, there’s no shortage of chirping on these boards when someone makes a prediction and it turns true, but rarely does someone come out and admit when they’re wrong. I’m simply pointing out that most of the people who were clamoring to keep Rick 4 months ago are nowhere to be found taking that position now.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your arguments are all over the board and contradict themselves

Who is this “bunch of people” who didn’t even want to have a discussion about trading him? That was discussed ad nauseum on this board. I don’t remember anyone saying they didn’t want to trade Ankiel because of his “story” (which is your straw man), but I do remember people saying that since Ank wasn’t worth much in trade, but that he could be valuable in helping the Cards this year, he should be kept. In fact, you use that same argument to justify why some other team would have wanted to trade for him — but then fail to recognize that the same reasoning applied to those who wanted him to remain a Cardinal.

And I can’t believe you’re using the McLouth deal as a comparison — McLouth is younger, hasn’t been injured, has a team-friendly deal, Pitt got real prospects in return (i.e. Hernandez), and Atlanta only made the deal after its OF proved they couldn’t hit (i.e. Schafer). Other than the fact that there was a trade for a left-handed-hitting outfielder, you’re really not close to showing that the Braves would have traded something valuable for Rick in the offseason. And moreover, you haven’t done anything but conjecture that the Cards didn’t try to trade Rick to the Braves.

If you can’t recognize that your argument here is a straw man then I’m afraid you, sir, don’t know what a straw-man argument is.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 8, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here you go again

assuming someone else doesn’t know things or assuming other things didn’t happen.

Here’s the thread: Go ahead and re-read it and tell me there weren’t a bunch of people beating the drum for him to stay here. Here’s another one, showing who the Cardinal faithful would like to trade the most, notice Ankiel doesn’t get the most votes.

You, sir, apparently don’t understand the “one man’s garbage is another man’s gold”. The reason’s that Ankiel isn’t attractive to us, a team with a lot of outfielders, is why he’s attractive to a lot of other teams:

He’s only got one year left on his contract.
He will test the free agent market most likely.
He could be a buy low candidate for a team that needs a lefty slugger and is nearing contention, but needs a cheap outfield upgrade to get there.

Where’s the straw man argument? I’m only saying that the teams in question most likely would have been interested in Rick had he been available. There’s no way to know whether he was or not, and no way to know whether they asked about him or not — my point has nothing to do with those. I’m saying that if he was asked about, the team should have made every effort to move him — but there are a lot of people who would not have liked to see him traded.

RE: Mclouth

They’re actually 1.5 years apart. McClouth has 1.5 more big league seasons under his belt and hasn’t been hurt as much in his career, but he also costs a lot more and cost a lot more to pick up than Rick probably would have. IT’s not like he’s 4 years younger…

My arguments have yet to contradict themselves. My whole point is that if there was a trade opportunity it should have been made and that there would have been a lot of people here unhappy with the return at that time and probably very happy with the return at this point.

I’m done arguing with you — we don’t agree, but my point is valid.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're misrepresenting that poll question slightly.

Since many people forgot about that thing (I know I did) let me re-post the question.

Which of the following outfielders would you be most willing to trade this offseason?

and the options were Schumaker, Ankiel, Ludwick, and Rasmus, with Skip winning the poll with 56 votes and Ankiel coming in 2nd with 29 votes (fwiw, Ludwick had 5 and Rasmus had 1).

The question doesn’t ask, which outfielder do you want to remove from this team, it asks whom would you be willing to trade.

Skip was a redundant part plain and simple. Plus, he had greater trade value than Ankiel. A lot goes in to that question and “trade value” is something I know I and I assume a lot of other people took into account when we voted for Skip (I’m pretty sure I voted for Skip). As well as him being a lesser, somewhat redundant part (corner outfielder/left-handed) especially when we all thought Barton was going to get the playing time.

Ank had almost zero trade value and it was probably more worth it to see if he could either become a 30 hr threat or at the very least prove to some team that he wasn’t going to break down and that he could be a viable power bat (something he’s never proven). The absolute same goes for Duncan but I don’t think anyone really thought he’d see the field again after that surgery.

And as far as your classification of Ankiel:

1. He’s only got one year left on his contract.
2. He will test the free agent market most likely.
3. He could be a buy low candidate for a team that needs a lefty slugger and is nearing contention, but needs a cheap outfield upgrade to get there.

Well, the first is a reason why a rebuilding team like the Braves wouldn’t want him. Number 2 is another reason why a rebuilding team like the Braves wouldn’t want him. And number 3 (if there was a shot in hell it could come true) is the reason why we should have kept him. But, in reality, most teams figured it wasn’t worth it to give up anything of value for a 30 year old, oft injured, poor fielding, outfielder who has absolutely no track record to speak of (that’s postitive) so in the end, he was ours.

Even if it isn’t the Braves you’re talking about, which of the teams looking to contend would wager any amount of confidence that Rick Ankiel could be counted on to get them to the next level. He’s never done it. Never.

I said it before. The only deal they might have gotten for him was one similar to what we gave up for to get Khalil and that level of talent definitely wouldn’t have helped us this year or next year and wouldn’t have come close to bringing in a major league ready player especially a pitcher or a middle infielder.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves aren't rebuilding

They went into the season looking to contend. You don’t go out and sign two starting pitchers if you’re not planning on contending in the next couple of years. If they were rebuilding they would have dealt Chipper while he still had value and they never would have dealt for Mclouth.

I’m not saying he’d get them to the next level, but he’s worth a gamble similar to the one we took on Khalil, only he makes less than half as much money and is done at the end of the year and he’s coming of a year when he hit 25 homers when healthy. I think he’s a far better gamble for a team with an outfield need than someone like Greene was for us, actually. Considering the depth in the Braves system in the middle infield and the talent they have at the major league level, I’d be surprised if they wouldn’t have taken Ankiel and a RH relief prospect for someone like Prado or even Kelly Johnson.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves are in the last stages of their rebuild

they’ve got a lot of young guys complimented by proven vets they just added this year. Rick Ankiel doesn’t fit into any of those categories nor does he fit into what they were doing. At all.

Now, if they would have been interested in giving up some AAA relief (not starting) pitcher and a PTBNL for Ankiel, would that have satisfied you? Because that’s what we gave up for Khalil (i.e., nothing).

I keep hearing Martin Prado’s name in this discussion (can’t remember if it was you or not) but there’s no way in hell we get Prado for Ankiel even if we were to sweeten the pot and I have a feeling it’d have taken a pretty sweet sweetener to sweeten that pot because Prado is young and plays a premium position (middle infield as opposed to corner outfield) and has a mlb and milb track record in doing it. Ankiel doesn’t have either. The only track record Ankiel has is full of potholes and is constantly under repair.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's their 4th infielder

I don’t see how their 4th infielder has more value to them as a club (when they have two more of similar talent at AAA) than a starting left fielder — they signed Garrett Anderson to fill this role at nearly 3 times what Ankiel would have cost and he’s not performing much better than Rick. I don’t see how Ankiel doesn’t fill a role for them but Anderson does — they are essentially the same player at this point in their careers, only Ankiel had more upside at the time.

Let’s see….would I rather have Luis Valdez or Mariano Gomez right now than Rick Ankiel? Why yes, yes I would. We could probably package those guys with another player for someone like Mark DeRosa right now or at least have someone to call up if/when we need to trade Chris Perez for third base or middle infield help. Rick Ankiel has absolutely no value to our team right now — we’re basically wishing on a star that he turns things around and becomes productive at some point this season.

Again, you’re assumption that there wasn’t a market for Rick Ankiel is no worse than my assumption that there was, so we’re arguing over something neither of us can prove. What isn’t up for debate is that the Cardinals front office made an error in judgment if they didn’t trade Ankiel last offseason but had the opportunity to do so.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 9, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If only asserting that your point was valid could magically make it so...

You, sir, apparently don’t understand the "one man’s garbage is another man’s gold".

In the offseason, Ankiel was worth far more to us than he would have been to another team. That’s what you (and the rest of the people on this board who actually think players like Ank or Dunc could be traded for anything of value) don’t understand. These guys are our “gold,” but otherwise garbage. Ank had far more worth to the Cards as a found-money, potential 30hr-decent defense guy. No other team would have traded for him thinking that he, given all the negatives pointed out above, was going to be that for them.

Your whole “argument” is a non sequitur. No one was arguing that Rick shouldn’t be traded simply because he was a great story — the people who did not want Rick traded thought he had more value to us than what he would bring back in a trade (because he had no value in trade — and had the potential to play well for us).

All you’re doing is asserting that Rick had value to other teams (I disagree) and/or that the FO didn’t take advanatage of this (I say there was nothing to take advantage of). Fine, you’re entitled to your opinion, but that’s all it is — don’t pretend it’s objective fact when you get called on it.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 8, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where did I state this as fact?

Ever? In my entire argument? I didn’t — so stop saying i did. You stating that I’ve said things I’ve never said doesn’t make it true either.

My argument is persuasive because there is evidence that teams make this type of deal all the time. I don’t think you quite understand what I’m saying, most likely because you keep assuming what I’m representing is fact. It isn’t. It’s simply a persuasive argument that Ankiel should have been moved in the offseason for literally any value at all, because at this point he represents absolutely no value to us whatsoever and is taking a roster spot from someone that might be able to help the team.

The front office gambled that he would have a great season, blossom into a good defensive center-fielder, and net us a sandwich pick when he signed with someone else after the season. He’s currently worth less than replacement value. What good does that do us? They took a gamble and they lost. Period. I don’t see why acknowledging that is so hard.

You know absolutely no more than I do about the market for Ankiel via trade this offseason, so stating that there wasn’t a market for him is as big a leap as me saying there was.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 9, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

your entire argument is based on the fallacy that OTHER teams value Rick’s personal story over properly "evaluating his talent" and therefore would have given up something even remotely valuable for Rick.

Um, no. There are a lot of teams that don’t have the outfield depth that the Cardinals do. The Braves would be one of those teams. The Giants and Mariners would be two others. Two of those teams thought they would be in contention this year in their divisions, and both of them needed a left handed hitting outfielder to boot. You’re assuming that they wouldn’t have even thought about making a trade for one year of Ankiel by moving a middle infield or pitching prospect?

It’s a good gamble for them because they don’t give up much, they get back a potentially good player who will play decent corner outfield defense regardless. We have players to replace Ankiel in the outfield, so if we can upgrade another position with a player of even marginal value. If not, we sign Ray Durham and pencil him in at second base for about what Ankiel is making to stink up the joint this year.

You’re telling me that some team wouldn’t deal from depth to pick up a potential 30 HR talent who makes less than $3M and who would be off the books after the season? I totally disagree…

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd tell you that they correctly evaluated Ankiel

as someone who’s not a potential 30 HR talent.

by sdrone on Jun 8, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with fourstick

that there was a chance, going on last season (i.e. Ank was great for 3-4 months, on track to hit 30+ bombs and OPSing in the high .800s, albeit streakily, as well as playing solid defence for the most part, then got injured and has since stunk for 4 solid months) that Ank’s “true talent” was what he showed early in 2008; he was walking more, he was hitting for power, and, although he was still striking out, was seemingly developing into a decent 3-true-outcomes guy with a decent glove (that we thought might develop into a + OF).

Now, my concern with trading ank in the winter (although I’d have still done it for something like Prado) is that a lot of teams are risk-averse in trading for short-term upgrades; they’re going to look at what Ank’s done, career wise and over the WHOLE of 2008 (when he was barely league-average, after his late-season swoon) and not give back much value for him. Whereas there was a CHANCE (which ultimately hasn’t been realised as he’s looked more and more lost at the plate and his apparent improvements at the start of 08 have evaporated) he’d be the player he was for the first 4 months of 2008 – the 30+ HR guy.

So, I kind of agree with fourstick that he had value, but moreso agree with Willie that he probably had more value to us (in terms of upside, given our OF depth) than he might’ve had to other teams (who aren’t going to pay 100 cents on the dollar on the assumption that April-July 2008 was the “real” Ank).

If someone gives up a Prado or a Johnson for him + another piece, we were fools not to take that, however, I don’t think that was ever on the table. When we asked about Johnson the price was Ludwick, not Ankiel + something else that doesn’t help the Braves in 09. They wanted Luddy.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we could have gotten Johnson

unless they were simply looking to dump his salary. But I do think that we could have gotten something similar to Prado because he’s essentially their 4th infielder while Ankiel could have started for them in left or center field.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 9, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's toast

Ankiel has run his course. Keep Rasmus at CF.

They x-rayed my head and didn't find anything.

Dizzy Dean

by DizzyDean on Jun 8, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the league -

has finally figured Ankiel out. Adjustments don’t seem to come easy to him.

There's some fucking pros out there that wanna fucking play the game ... ... but you're stuck in the fucking stigma of the fucking Dodgers, and the Phillies, and the Cardinals, and all that cheap shit.

by Urban Pawnee on Jun 8, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Irony...

Adjustments don’t seem to come easy to him.

you do realize that you made this comment about one of a handful of players in the history of baseball to convert from being highly touted MLB pitcher to MLB hitter?

mind you he doesn’t hit much anyways, and I completely understand/agree with what you’re saying, I’m just too analytical to let that irony go by.

Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!

by timmycardinals on Jun 8, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Perfect and rec'd

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 8, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ank has been through a lot of sh*t with this club.

Maybe a fresh start would help him.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll fess up...

I wasn’t for trading Ank in the offseason, though I wasn’t really against it, either. I felt that the last two months of ‘08 had really hurt his value, and that he needed to prove himself with a good Spring, and increase his value. I actually felt this way about he and Duncan, and was hoping we’d be able to trade one of the two in May…things don’t always happen the way we’d like.

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ank's offseason value

was next to nothing because he needed to show he could recover, play well and stay healthy Now that he’s shown what he can do, his value is still next to nothing since he is a free agent at season’s end. It was fantasy to think that Ankiel would get anything better than a AA pitcher in return.

by ubeddie on Jun 8, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But he could have been paired in a trade with someone else

to acquire a middle infielder or a starting pitcher I’d guess.

GM’s are notoriously interested in upside, they just don’t want to pay for it. So if we gave someone a decent prospect and Ankiel they might jump at the chance because he had proved he could play in the outfield and slug at this level. There had to be some offers out there that were better options than keeping him.

I’m not saying he was worth much of anything, but I think we could have gotten somebody like Martin Prado or Omar Infante from the Braves, or possibly someone like Jason Bartlett from the Rays, who were looking to move him this offseason in favor of Reid Brignac. Obviously we had no way to know that Bartlett was going to OPS over 1.000, but neither did the Rays, and he would have filled a defensive hole on our current team. All three of those guys have WAY more value than does Ankiel right now, and they also fill a badly needed hole on our current roster, that of productive utility infielder.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You could readily argue that we already had Bartlett, though

pre-2009 we had two good fielding middle infielders (Ryan and T Greene) who could likely be projected to hit similarly to Bartlett (who had four straight years of poor wOBAing, and had only surpassed a .700 OPS in one of them).

I’d have been opposed to an Ank-plus-prospect for Bartlett trade over the summer personally – Jason Bartletts, pre-2009 aren’t too hard to find.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't have liked a Bartlett trade either

but he would have brought back at least as much value as we lost with Rick and added a solid defender with good speed at SS. We also don’t make the Khalil Greene trade at that point either, even though I was in favor of that one and that hasn’t worked out well at all.

I still think that Atlanta would have given up one of those two guys for Rick in the offseason. They started the season with Jordan Schafer in CF!!!!

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thougth they pretty much had their sights on Ludwick

and had no interest (and rightfully so) in Ankiel.

Seriously, why would anyone have had any real interest in Rick Ankiel? He’s gonna be 30 in July, he’s been a hitter for about 5 years, he has a history of injuries (and pretty severe ones to boot), not to mention a pretty famous “mental” issue, and is juuuuuuust about to get real expensive.

Where is the “realistic” upside? Sure, I suppose you could argue that he “couldnt’ get worse”…..but he did. He’s our problem and I can’t envision another GM giving up something of any value for him.

Granted, we did it with Khalil (took San Diego’s problem and made it ours), but we didn’t give up anything of any real value either. And frankly, looking at the Khalil trade is a good indicator of what you probably could have gotten for Ankiel. And that’s nothing.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if worrell hadn't needed TJ straight after trading

they might’ve got two above-average right-handed relievers. Not too bad for a salary dump. Ank’s cheaper and had a better 08 than KBot.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't think I'd have wanted infante either

but if Prado’s on the table, yippe-kay-ay.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You forgot to mention

Since coming off the DL Ludwick is for 31 with one HR.

by Evilfrog on Jun 8, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Missing number

But yeah, that’s concerning to me. He’s hit ever since being with StL. His injury was a hammy, not something you would think would mess with his swing. He’s just slumping. And without looking at numbers he must be up there in the swing-at-1st-pitch rankings.

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's had terrible plate discipline since coming back from injury

TRADE FOR DEROSA!!!

by Cuttah on Jun 8, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's also been tattooing the ball straight at fielders

I think someone said he had like a .150 BABIP in May or something, that’s ludicrously unlucky. I’m not really worried about him yet.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His BABIP for the season

is only .238 as well. However, part of the cause may be that his LD rate has fallen over 10% from last year to 16.1%. I’m not that worried about him either, but to a degree he’s going to be regress-wick this season.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jun 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was depressing

The good news: Rasmus is 33rd in the majors in WAR.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jun 8, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Ooh,

I like that stat.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on Jun 8, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus Good, Pujols Good, Team Bad...Bad like fire,Aaaargh!

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on Jun 8, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, um...

I was out of town all weekend, and missed a lot of information. Mercifully, I didn’t have to witness our utter destruction at the hand of the Rockies in any form other than box score or bottom-of-screen-scroll. That said, Todd? Hawksworth? T. Greene? Dick York, Dick Sargent, Sargeant York? What’s going on here?
Long story short, can anybody sum up the state of the roster for me? I would understand if it is too painful and frustrating.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

(ahem)

Utter nonsensical chaos.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on Jun 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ever read Flowers for Algernon?

You can't teach a hammer to love nails.

by the red baron on Jun 8, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Because I figure from the descriptions I’ve heard that it’ll be too damn depres—aw crap. It was our planet! You bastards!
Related note: this is the same reason I might never watch Schindler’s List or Pan’s Labyrinth again for as long as I live.

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, fair enough.

But Flowers is particularly poignant for this team, as it’s the story of a man who gains great intelligence, then slowly regresses back toward being, um, special.

Sound like anyone we know?

You can't teach a hammer to love nails.

by the red baron on Jun 8, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems apt.

Is Hawksworth going to start? Is he taking Piñeiro’s place or something?

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No idea.

I meant in relation to our manager, and his love for doing stuff just because.

You can't teach a hammer to love nails.

by the red baron on Jun 8, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think LaRussa writes Pujols at #3

Than he uses a 12 sided custom Dungeon and Dragon’s dice with the Cardinal’s names on them to figure out the rest of the lineup

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't it apply to the whole team as well?

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on Jun 8, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have

But it has been awhile

I just remember the Mouse

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at least Albert had a 2 run sac fly this weekend

that was the highlight

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 8, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've changed my mind

I don’t think Mo should make a trade until Tony starts Colby and Ludwick everyday for a week straight. Who’s to say the offense really is a problem that needs to be fixed externally when the manager is putting the best possible team on the field everyday?

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Does that mean putting Schu in LF...

starting Ryan (Greene)/Thurston at 2B depending on SP handedness, and calling up Craig or Mather to play third and/or LF against lefties (probably Mather due to 40-man concerns)?

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Yes. It means exactly that.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

+1

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jun 8, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup

Skip 4
Rasmus 8
Pujols 3
Ludwick 9
Duncan 7
Yadi 2
T. Greene 5
Thompson 1
Ryan 6.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FWIW...

I like this lineup…whose at third instead of Thurston, I assume Ryan?

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nevermind...I

now see the numbers for position. Surprised to see Greene at third instead of Ryan, does TG have much experience there?

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

quote from PD blog

Rookie Tyler Greene will make his major-league debut at third base, with Brendan Ryan handling shortstop. La Russa has said before that with both guys in the lineup, Greene would play the corner because he views him as the better option.

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd disagree with this personally

but I guess it’s probably virtually no difference either way. Without looking it up, I thought Ryan had more experience at 3rd in his career, whilst Greene is a career short-stop (and arguably better than Ryan there, although they’re both v good).

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He does...but I think Greene has the stronger arm of the two

and they have about the same amount of Range. Greene also seems to be better on plays to his left, so if he hugs the line a tad he’ll be a better option at 3rd as most of the plays will be that direction.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 8, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, Who's at second.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take my chances with Rick over Duncan

but I like the rest of that lineup

TRADE FOR DEROSA!!!

by Cuttah on Jun 8, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

might as well put the best glove in i suppose.

I have slightly more confidence in dunc’s at-bats though. He actually looked good through april.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least he walks

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's a toss up

they both suck lately

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 8, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what happened to pitcher 9th?

scrapped so soon again?

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he does it when there's a second guy who profiles as a "leadoff man" in the team

i.e. he’ll do it when both schu and ryan (our supposed leadoff hitters) are available.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought he did away with it for good yesterday though

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when it comes to the lineup

tlr’s “for good” = “for the next 24 hours, maybe”

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why put Greene 7th?

Isn’t it safe to say he has the most speed in that lineup? Wouldn’t you rather have someone other than the pitcher and B Ryan trying to bring him in?

by paposse on Jun 8, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, not safe to say

brendan is faster

by prophetjohn on Jun 8, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you generally want speed right before your singles hitters

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 8, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

T. Greene: .345
B. Ryan: .337
LaRue: .320 (with a team worst among postion players w/ more than 20 ABs LD rate of 11.5 )
Schumaker: .315
Duncan: .307
Pujols: .299
Thurston: .298
Rasmus: .295
Ankiel: .274
Molina: .265
Stavinoha: .262
Barden: .253
Ludwick: .238 (with a 16.1 LD rate)
K Greene: .221(with a team 2nd among position players w/ over 20 ABs 22.2 % LD rate)

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what is considered average? lucky? unlucky?

TRADE FOR DEROSA!!!

by Cuttah on Jun 8, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lucky and unluck depend on lots of things

but the NL Avg BABIP is .297, depending on the other factors like LD rate for instance (19% is LG Avg), you can use that as a reference. Ludwick has a below Avg BABIP but also a below Avg LD rate, so he isn’t as unlucky as it seems

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it is also dependent on groundball-to-flyball ratio

and infield flyball percentage, among other things.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is Rasmus' LD rate against lefties?

His BABIP is .133.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not sure how to find that

his overall is 19%, but I can’t find a way to separate it out, maybe someone with more BR Fu than me can figure it out.

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I was wondering if I was missing something on fangraphs

Have no idea how to do it.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've always thought the lack of a lefty/righty and home/away splits option on fangraphs sucks

no idea why they don’t add that, seems an obvious thing to me. You can check his splits on baseballreference.com (his page is sponsored by azru!) but I don’t think it quotes BABIP on the splits.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Send down Barden, Call up Craig!

Is it just me or is this a no brainer?

THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!

by stltrav09 on Jun 8, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+10000000000

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 8, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WPA after nine weeks

per FanGraphs

Hitters
Team Total: -0.720 (9th in NL, 18th in majors)
Best 3: Pujols (2.543, 4th in NL), Stavinoha (.465 – yup, 2nd!), Ludwick (.450) – bonus: Rasmus 4th @ .339
Worst 3 (non-P): Ankiel ( -.899), K.Greene ( -.620), Molina ( -.330) [PITCHERS: -1.509, Wainwright -.451]
Best lineup spot: 3rd (2.503); worst: 9th ( -1.197); otherwise: 6th ( -.976)
Best WPA by (non-P) position: 1B (2.476); worst: 3B ( -.587) [Pinch hitters: -.942]
Best single-game performance: Rasmus 5/10 v CIN (.382); worst: Ankiel on 4/18 v Cubs ( -.343)
Best Plate Appearance: Ankiel’s RBI 2B on 4/30 (.351); worst: Greene’s game-ending DP on 4/17 ( -.290)

Starters
Team Total: 1.787 (3rd in NL, 6th in majors)
Best to worst: Carp (1.769, 2nd in NL), Wainwright, Lohse, Thompson, Boggs, Walters, Pineiro, Welley ( -.795)
Best single-game performance: Carpenter v MIL 5/25 (+.540); worst: Wainwright vs PHI ( -.419)

Relievers
Team Total: 1.462 (6th in NL, 11th in majors)
Best to worst: Franklin (1.476, 6th in NL), Motte, Perez, McClellan, Miller, Boggs, Reyes, Hawksworth, Todd, Walters, Boyer, Thompson, Kinney ( -.584)
Best single-game performance: Perez final out v CIN 5/10 (.279); worst: Motte on Day 1 ( -.833)

Pitching
Who are we beating up: 8-hitters ( -1.202) & shortstops ( -1.613)
Who is beating us up: leadoff (.767) & 3rd basemen (1.414)

Best inning – hitting: 5th (.944); pitching: 9th (1.078); combined: 4th (1.623)
Worst inning – hitting: 2nd ( -2.020); pitching: 5th ( -.513); combined: 2nd ( -1.280)

Last two weeks: Batting -1.894, Starters +0.148, Bullpen +0.250
Trending up: Carpenter (1.074), Pujols (.622), Motte (.340), Franklin (.278), Stavinoha (.242), Perez (.235)
Trending down: Ludwick ( -.577), Ankiel ( -.549), Pineiro ( -.438), Wellemeyer ( -.420), Molina ( -.418), McClellan ( -.316), Barden ( -.284), Carpenter (as a hitter -.259), Ryan ( -.224)

Over the last two weeks, our cleanup hitters have posted a WPA of -.756, which is drug down by two major things. One, they just aren’t hitting – that’s obvious. Two, Pujols has been getting on base in front of them, making all of their failures that much more important.

I will also generate a rundown of our performance since May 1 later today.

Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.

by Solanus on Jun 8, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I will also generate a rundown of our performance since May 1 later today.

cringes

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just a glutton for bad news, eh Alx?

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe

by gocards62 on Jun 8, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bad news Alxfritz is hungry for

Since May 1st, the “offensive” offense:
Positives – Pujols (1.089), Rasmus (.496), Stavinoha (.465), Pineiro (.010), Boggs (.008) – that’s it, folks!
Negatives – Ankiel ( -.778), Barden ( -.758), Molina ( -.586), Duncan ( -.507), K.Greene ( -.456), Ludwick ( -.313), Thurston ( -.305), the entire pitching staff as hitters ( -1.005)

The pitchers
Positives – Carpenter (1.359), Motte (.761), Perez (.515), Miller (.348)
Negatives – Pineiro ( -.623), Lohse ( -.553), Wellemeyer ( -.345), Boyer ( -.332)

By lineup spot
Spot STL OPP
1st -.423 .341
2nd .380 -.726
3rd 1.049 -.351 (best advantage for us)
4th -1.275 .336 (giving every advantage away – worst disadvantage)
5th -.274 -.087
6th -.377 .924
7th -.908 -.076
8th -.839 -1.685
9th -.693 -.548

By position
C -.587 -.287
1B 1.022 .776
2B -.221 -.453
SS -.638 -1.294 (despite the overall horrible numbers, this is our biggest advantage)
3B -.828 .583 (biggest disadvantage)
LF .106 .221
CF -.050 -.083
RF -.589 -.352
P -.920 -.699
PH -.655 -.284

By Inning
1st -.007 -.193
2nd -1.318 -.403 (worst disadvantage)
3rd -.084 -.418
4th -.224 .431
5th -.281 .270
6th .025 -.179 (of innings 1-9, the only one with a positive value for the hitters; also, our biggest advantage)
7th -.130 -.108
8th -.737 -.675
9th -.991 -.481
10th .155 .155 (win on 5/10 v CIN, loss on 5/26 v MIL)

P.S. Can someone please remind me how I can format this properly? Just link me to the right spot. Thanks.

Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.

by Solanus on Jun 8, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

use "pre" tags

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on Jun 8, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In Honour of Dwarves

I rear-ended a car this morning. So there we are alongside the road and slowly the driver gets out of the car . . . and you know how you just get sooo stressed and life seems to get funny? Well, I could NOT believe it . . he was a DWARF! He storms over to my car, looks up at me and says, “I AM NOT HAPPY!” So, I look down at him and say, “Well, which one are you then?”… and THAT’S when the fight started . .

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

have you posted that before?

seen it somewhere on here I think.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I have posted this before

I don’t normally repost jokes. But it seems appropriate and we need a laugh.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to make a fanpost about all of Moz's transactions

Just goinh down the line and see how they have worked out so far. It is honestly not shaping up to looking to good.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

he doesn’t seem to be having the best time so far, but I am not sure if it is him that is the problem or an over involved owner

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

Maybe Not

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 8, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

right

that is why I said I wasn’t sure, it could be him, it could be DeWitt, could be any combination of them both. We just don’t have all the info

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It seems like last year he was a genius...

Freese looked great at AAA whild Jimmy got DFA’d by the Padres, Glaus was healthy and producing while ScoRo started the year on the DL, and Lohse was considered the best FA pickup of the offseason. This year…even the things that looked good a year ago don’t look so good now. I guess the Pineiro contract looks better now.

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hard to pin glaus' freak injury on him IMO

and so far, although he’s made a lot of head-scratching mistakes, at least none of them have been biggies (i.e. losing Barton, messing about with the roster etc. – all bad moves, but none of them disastrous).

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thurston heading to Cal tonight

after the game tonight Thurston hes flying west for the next two days, inducing labor tomorrow, spending Wednesday with his wife and child, then taking the red eye to Fla for Thursday’s noon eastern game….guy will be worn out on Thursday

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090608&content_id=5208024&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl&partnerId=rss_stl

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jun 8, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What is he doing to...

induce labor?

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He might have to.

There are ways.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on Jun 8, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fun ways.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You just punch her in the stomach right?

And the kid comes shooting out.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You'd

have to kick. Punches aren’t hard enough.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on Jun 8, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adrain Beltre - Last 14 days

.375/.412/.479/.891

right-handed batter who is probably available. Gonna cost some AAA pitching and maybe a outfield prospect (non-DJ Tools category). Get it done Mo.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but, if you were SEA

wouldn’t you want Jones?

Seriously, i’m appointing you GM of the Mariners.

Who do you ask for in return for Beltre.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, as long as I'm an opposing GM

Do you have any left-handed hitting first basemen with power? Preferably the kind whose power is currently MIA.

by mojowo11 on Jun 8, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SEA can't expect to get a lot back in return for Beltre.

He’s not guaranteed to be a Type A, he’s started off the year in a horrible slump and he’s a rental. I’d hope that no GM would be dumb enough to give up a top 50 prospect (D. Jones) for 4 months of Beltre.

I’d ask for one of Boggs/Mortensen, one of Jay/Henley and someone a little farther down the ladder like Lynn/Kopp/Samuel. I wouldn’t offer to eat much if any salary though. Those are all players that are expendable for the Cardinals and would fit well into SEA. Boggs & Mortensen both have middle of the rotation upside and would benefit from Safeco. Jay and Henley are both true CFs with good doubles power that would play well in a spacious corner outfield position. Lynn & Kopp offer you another chance at a mid-rotation starter and Samuel is a live arm. I think you can build a package with parts like this that would be very attractive for a SEA system that’s starved for upper level talent.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That goes two ways for me...

Boggs+Jay/Henley+Kopp/Samuel I could live with that. Mort+Lynn+OFer…not so much.

"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs

by cardzfanbub on Jun 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You might be able to get away giving them less than that.

Point is, I think you could do it sans Wallace & Jones.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jun 8, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather trade mort and lynn

than boggs and jay. Strange huh?

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

especially if we pay 100%

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jun 8, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what a pitiful offense!

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 8, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

take another one, Skip.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

at what point...

does hal mcrae get fired?

by bigmcq16 on Jun 8, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Raise your hand if you're anxious about the outcome of this inning

An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.

HL Mencken

by akaitori on Jun 8, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shannon's lost track of the count. Belike his attention is wandering. Blame him?

An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.

HL Mencken

by akaitori on Jun 8, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FYI.

this isn’t the game thread.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're not the game thread.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude, your mom's not the game thread.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 8, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Your mom goes to college.

"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah

by Alxfritz on Jun 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why am i the only one who's not sold on thurston?

i don’t get it. he’s a bad player & does his best to hurt Albert every other throw to 1st, no matter if he’s at 3rd or 2nd. just because he’s the less sucky of the sucky players not named Pujols, Rasmus & Ludwick doesn’t mean he should be playing every damn day.

in fact, the only reason he’s gotten more playing time is because he hits left handed. doesn’t matter the whole OF is nothing put lefty’s, doesn’t matter Skippy is a lefty, Tony has to have another fucking lefty in the lineup so matter what. damned wins, damned everything, he has to have his splits no matter what.

all Barden did was win ROM & what does he get for his trouble? he gets royally fucked over by his manager. and no one cares.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

by gdm426 on Jun 8, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Barden is getting "royally fucked by his manager"?

Are you serious?

He’s OPSing .677.

He’s lucky he’s not in Memphis right now.

I’m not saying Thurston is so much better, but the only thing Barden does better than JT is catch the baseball.

I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.

by Tackle Box on Jun 8, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

last month he got benched in favor for a guy who did only one thing better than he did

which was hit left handed. that’s what i was talking about. sure now he’s cooled off considerably & is not doing much, if anything to help the team win. he should probably now be in memphis.

i really should let it go, it’s not worth it. i don’t know why of all the things that have gone wrong this season, this gets me all upset.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

by gdm426 on Jun 8, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

barden is a better fielder than thurston

and yeah, i think brian should be in memphis, most likely.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 9, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DFA'ing Boyer should help.

It’s clear to me that BB, a relief pitcher who never actually came to the plate, was the problem with our offense. (and no, it’s not because we didn’t get to hit against him ;)

BB first entered a game for STL on 25 April. Up until 25 April, the offense was awesome, bordering on historically great; we fickle fans were sure we’d score 1000 runs. The team OPS peaked for the season (so far) on that very day, at .303/.383/.488 (.871 OPS). We beat the Cubs that day, the final game of a 5-game winning streak, and BB’s first inning as a cardinal was the last inning of the game.

We lost to the Cubs the next day, 10-3. Since then, and not including today, the offense has been reduced to a neifi perez- like .231/.300/.379. As documented in this thread, the terrible offensive performance has been nearly universal, a team-wide slump the likes of which I’ve never seen.

I don’t believe that these two events are a mere coincidence. IMO, Blaine is a Jonah- a symbol of bad luck, an unwanted teammate who must be sacrificed to please the cruel GOB and quiet the storm. Someone had to be thrown overboard, and I think Mo chose the right man.

If my theory is correct, now that he’s gone, today will mark the low point in the season, offensively. Although it may take a few days for all of the bad mojo to be exorcised from the clubhouse.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on Jun 8, 2009 8:17 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs