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Quality starts...but not the good kind.

The team's offensive woes have been discussed ad nauseum, but what I think we haven't really touched on in detail is just what these deficiencies do for the teams we face. Obviously it's easier to beat a team when it's only scoring 2-3 runs/game, but the lack of offensive production turns basically any pitcher into a "quality starter" when facing the Cards. Consider the following table:

 

Star-divide

Quality Start = 6+ IP, 3 ER or fewer

Date-Opponent

Opposing Starter's Stats

Starter's current stats

4/26- CHC (L 10-3)

Harden 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER

4-2, 4.74 ERA in 43.2 IP

4/27- ATL (W 3-2)

Jurrjens 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER

5-3; 2.84 ERA in 73 IP

4/28- ATL (L 2-1)

Reyes 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER

0-2; 7 ERA in 27 IP

4/29- ATL (W 5-3)

Vazquez 8 IP, 9 H, 5 ER

4-4; 3.58 ERA in 70.1 IP

4/30- WAS (W 9-4)

Cabrera 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER

0-5; 5.85 ERA in 40 IP

5/1- WAS (W 6-2)

Zimmerman 5.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER

2-3; 5.71 ERA in 52 IP

5/2- WAS (L 6-1)

Martis 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER

5-1; 5.31 ERA in 62.2 IP

5/3- WAS PP'd

5/4- PHI (L 6-1)

Blanton 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER

4-3; 5.86 in 58.1 IP

5/5- PHI (L 10-7)

Myers 5.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER

4-3; 4.66 in 63.2 IP

5/6- PIT (W 4-2)

Duke 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER

6-4; 2.62 in 79 IP

5/7- PIT (W 5-2)

Ohlendorf 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER

5-5; 4.85 ERA in 65 IP

5/8- CIN (L 6-4)

Cueto 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER

5-3; 2.43 ERA in 74 IP

5/9- CIN (L 8-3)

Harang 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER

5-6; 4.11 ERA in 76.2 IP

5/10- CIN (W 8-7)

Volquez 6.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER

4-2; 4.35 ERA in 49.2 IP

5/12 - PIT (L 7-1)

Duke 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER

6-4; 2.62 in 79 IP

5/13- PIT (L 5-2)

Ohlendorf (again) 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER

5-5; 4.85 ERA in 65 IP

5/14- PIT (L 5-1)

Karstens 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER

2-3; 5.30 ERA in 56 IP

5/15- MIL (SUSP)

5/16- MIL (L 1-0)

Suppan 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER

3-4; 5.09 ERA in 58.1 IP

5/17- MIL (L 8-2)

Parra 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER

3-7; 6.75 ERA in 57.1 IP

5/18- MIL (L 8-4)

Looper 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER

5-3; 4.65 ERA in 62 IP

5/19- CHC (W 3-0)

Lilly 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER

6-4; 3.28 ERA in 71.1 IP

5/20- CHC (W 2-1)

Dempster 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER

4-3; 4.48 ERA in 68.1 IP

5/21- CHC (W 3-1)

Marshall 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER

3-4; 4.73 ERA in 45.2 IP

5/22- KC (W 5-0)

Davies 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER

2-5; 5.20 ERA in 64 IP

5/23- KC (W 5-0)

Hochevar 6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER

0-2; 10.80 ERA in 11.2 IP

5/24- KC (L 3-2)

Bannister 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER

4-3; 4.97 ERA in 50.2 IP

5/25- MIL (L 1-0)

Gallardo 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER

6-2; 2.84 ERA in 73 IP

5/26- MIL (W 8-1)

Suppan 3.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER

3-4; 5.09 ERA in 58.1 IP

5/27- MIL (W 3-2)

Parra 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER

3-7; 6.75 ERA in 57.1 IP

5/29- SF (L 4-2)

Cain 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER

7-1; 2.27 ERA in 71.1 IP

5/30- SF (W 6-2)

Zito (!) 6.2 IP, 10 H, 3 ER

2-6; 3.86 ERA in 67.2 IP

5/31- SF (L 5-3)

Sanchez 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER

2-4; 4.75 ERA in 47.1 IP

6/1- CIN (L 5-3)

Volquez 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER; Lincoln et al., 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER

4-2; 4.35 ERA in 49.2 IP

6/2- CIN (W 5-2)

Arroyo 5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER

7-4; 5.37 ERA in 70.1 IP

6/3- CIN (L 9-3)

Cueto 6.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER

5-3; 2.43 ERA in 74 IP

6/4- CIN (W 3-1)

Harang 8 IP, 8 H, 3 ER

5-6; 4.11 ERA in 76.2 IP

6/5- COL (L 11-4

De La Rosa 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER

1-6; 5.28 ERA in 61.1 IP

I realize that traditional pitching stats (e.g., W/L, ERA) don't tell the whole story and are often misleading, but I think they are useful for descriptive purposes. If we look at the starting performances for each of the pitchers we've faced since 4/26 (i.e., the last game against the Cubs), which can loosely be considered the start of the Cards' troubles, given their disappointing 12-15 May, we can clearly see that 25 out of the last 37 starters we've faced have turned in "quality starts" against whatever lineup iteration we've happened to pencil in for that particular day.

Of course, one of the pitchers among the 37 counted for this exercise was Edison Volquez, who left his start on 6/1 with an injury after 1 IP. Unfortunately for the Birdos, the incomparable Mike Lincoln and company filled in admirably, yielding just 1 ER and 5 H over 8 strong innings of relief. We should probably discard this start from the pool, so we're looking at 25/36 now, but however you slice it, failing to put up more than 1 ER against 8 innings of bullpen mop-up duty when a stud starter leaves the game is pretty disappointing, to say the least.

As far as the performances of those remaining 12 starters, many of them looked pretty strong against our anemic offense as well. If we relax the "quality start" criteria by just one unit (i.e., 5+ IP, 4 ER or fewer), we can add 3 more performances to the "quality" starts against the Cards pool, for a running tab of 28 out of the past 36 pitchers we've faced. Clearly, you can't win baseball games when you don't score runs and our glaring offensive troubles really stack the deck against the team, even when the opposing team sends a very average starter to the hill.

During this period, the Cards have tallied a meager 130 runs over 37 games, good for a 3.5 runs/game average. Four times during this period we've lost when the opponent has scored 3 or fewer runs; we've lost another game when the opposition only scored 4 runs.

Further, it's not like the Cards have been facing off against baseball's best. Scan the table and instead of names like Lincecum, Hamels, and Greinke, you'll see such world beaters as JoJo Reyes (0-2; 7.00 ERA total, but 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER vs. STL), Shairon Martis (5-1; 5.31 ERA total, but a complete game, 5 hit, 1 ER performance vs. STL), Joe Blanton (4-3; 5.86 ERA total, but 6 IP, 4 hit, 1 ER), Ross Ohlendorf (5-5; 4.85 ERA total, but 12 IP, 9 H, 6 ER in two games vs. STL), Luke Hochevar (0-2; 10.80 ERA total, but 6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER vs. STL), Manny Parra (3-7; 6.75 ERA total, but 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ERA vs. STL), and Jorge "Cy" De La Rosa (1-6; 5.28 ERA total, but 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER vs. STL) absolutely shutting down the Cardinals' bats.  

Thankfully, prior to last night, anyway, our collective pitching staff was among the best in baseball. Unfortunately, the starters (or the team, usually) don't have the glamour stats (e.g., Wins) to show for their efforts. If not for some gutsy (and perhaps unsustainable) performances by our starters over the last month-plus, this rough patch would look even worse within the context of the W/L column.

No matter which lens through which we look, I think it's clear that we need an offensive upgrade from somewhere in order to help pick up some of the slack. When the other team's 3rd, 4th, 5th, and/or call-up starters are regularly tossing up gems against your offense, it's fairly obvious that your lineup could use a significant shot in the arm. Our pitching staff can't be expected to be lights-out every night and at some point, our offense needs to throw up more than three-and-a-half runs per game on a regular basis.

 

1 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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CRAP!!!

Sorry about the weird pasting data…I thought I knew how to keep that off of there. That’s what the “paste from Word” tool gave me.

Sorry about the slop up front…hopefully it doesn’t kill the “drinkability” of the post.

by goodymobb on Jun 6, 2009 6:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Okay...

Maybe I figured it out after all…weird.

by goodymobb on Jun 6, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

so what’s your bottom line:

1. the cards are unlucky. they are running into pitchers that throwing out of thier shoes (above thier ability)

2. the cards crappy hitting is making a lot of mediocre pitchers look good

3. no excuses. the cards should be hitting against these guys

4. something i havent thought of

5. a combination of all of the above (my opinion)

by schweaty on Jun 6, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i'd lean more to 5, all of the above

it’s madness i tell you. madness.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

by gdm426 on Jun 7, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

5

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 7, 2009 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it has to be 4

we don’t know all the answers behind this asinine roster management, but there just has to be a reason behind it, and thus a reason for crapping the bed against less than stellar pitching.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 7, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ONE specific thing probably oversimplifies things...

but at least for me, I think that it’s 2 (crappy hitting makes mediocre pitchers look like aces), primarily, with a little number 3 mixed in for good measure.

I think that this is just a different way to look at the situation…we know the offense has been horrible, but ultimately, such a horrible offense really hamstrings your squad. When you have the other team’s mediocre starters tossing up gems on a regular basis, what sort of chance do you stand when the calendar works out so that you’re facing some of the frontline pitchers in the league?

by goodymobb on Jun 7, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

UPDATE

The last opposing pitcher data I had was from Friday’s game. I went back and added in the games since Friday.

Perhaps to no one’s surprise, we’ve seen quality starts from opposing pitchers in each game since, including from tonight’s starter, who lasted 7 innings and gave up just 3 ER.

So if you’re keeping score at home (and apparently I am), that’s 7 quality starts in a row turned in by opposing pitchers.

Ugh.

by goodymobb on Jun 9, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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