Schumaker,Rasmus, Pujols, Dunn?
Here's my bright ideaIf you've never been to mlbtraderumors.com I highly recommend it. I've been browsing it for the last several years. I think I may have even learned of the JD Drew to the Braves while there a few years back. Anyway, today I saw a story that The Nats may be dealing Adam Dunn in exchange for some good pithcing prospects. If anyone would be willing to pull the trigger, I would love to pull off a deal bringing over Dunn and Belliard and shipping out Duncan/Ankiel (or both) and also offering Walters and Todd. Or something along those lines. Belliard only has 69 AB's and is batting about .170 but that would give us another option for the Middle Infield/ Outfield swaps that Tony wanted use Skip for, it would get rid of Dunc (total flop) and /or Ank, who I still root for and think has better days ahead, but will ultimately leave for more money. I actually expect a little less than a Drew type deal for him next year, his tools impress people. Most importantly that deal would provide some solid and consistent protection for Pujols whether you bat him 2nd or 4th. He strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and hits a ton of homers. And we could still pull him late after his last bat to get better Defense in the outfield. Pujols is batting .340 w/ 16 homeruns and zero protection all year. What would he be hitting in a situation where pitchers could not pitch around him because they'd be staring down 285 pounds of Hillbilly Jim (thats what I call Dunn). I think he makes about 15 mil but if you add his production plus what it will do for Pujols I think we'd be getting a bargain. I also think it would really help Raz and Ludwick to have another thumper in the lineup so they can focus on getting their averages up. It may be all a dream, but it's one I would love to wake up to. Wouldn't it be exciting to be the team that pulls off a BIG DEAL THIS YEAR!!! I don't want another broken down second hand pickup who might have a last hurrah in them. I want instant impact and thats what Dunn would be. Lets do something this time.
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hmm this would be easier to pull of than my plan
i say while we’re calling about dunn, we at least ask about zimmerman…but i wouldn’t be mad if dunn was in the four hole
I’m afraid that we won’t go after anyone of substance. DeRosa doesn’t get us over the hump. We’ve been hanging around because in April our hitters did the job, and for a couple of weeks in May our starters did the job. When both of them start averaging out we’ll be a middle of the pack team. 3rd or 4th place in the Central will disgust me this year. This is a totally winable division with just a couple of pieces being added and subtracted. If we don’t go for it this year and make a big move, when will we? How do we get ahold of MO?
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
well
he’s a lefty and he’s about as bad in left as duncan. i wouldn’t be staunchly opposed to this deal, but i’d rather see most of the other options first. even holliday before him. i don’t see a dunn deal as very likely. probably more likely than zimmerman, though
Being a lefty is a benefit to us. That helps us deplete bullpens late in the game. Raz-Pujols-Dunn-Ludwick (left-right-left-right). If they want to use lefty-lefty/righty-righty matchups late in the game they have to burn through pitchers to do it. That leaves the bottom of our lineup facing whoever they have left
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
Being a lefty is not of benefit to us
we need a right-handed bat, because we’re getting chewed up by left-handed pitchers. Dunn doesn’t have a bad platoon split, but he’s still a better hitter of RHP than LHP (only .829 OPS, career).
Expending prospects and cash for a slightly better version of Duncan/Ankiel is a terrible idea. Because of his egregious defence, Dunn’s not been much more than an average player the last 4 seasons, in fact, for the last 3 full seasons, he’s been BELOW AVERAGE (according to fangraphs) thanks to his horrible glove.
As a 1B or DH, maybe. As an outfielder, no thanks. Dreadful idea.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
slightly better? Dunn’s a huge offensive upgrade from those two combined. And as far as Derosa goes, he’s batting .264 and Dunn’s at .269. Their averages are comparable but their power is not. I didnt even check their on base% but I’ll bet Dunn is way up on him there too. I dont think our biggest problem is our outfields defense. If it were nobody would be worried about Ank right now. If the left fielders defense is killing us then we could put LaRue out there and upgrade. Our problem is that we cant score. And a big reason for that is the lack of protection for Albert. Dunn answers that from day one. If he were batting cleanup ALbert would be seeing way more pitches, and even when Albert makes an out we still have a big bat to contend with. DeRosa does not command that kind of respect form pitchers. Pitchers go after Dunn with way more intensity than they do Derosa and he still produces better results. Dunn would get us over the hump!
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
Wow you went as far as not checking their on base %...
…persuasive argument.
Dunn is a big offensive upgrade over Dunc and Ankiel, but he’s also a terrible, terrible fielder. Like, epically bad. Which makes his value, as a left fielder, basically somewhere around average. He has, in fact, been BELOW AVERAGE the past three years (combined average of less than 2 wins above replacement per season).
A run saved is as good as a run scored; saying “our left field defence isn’t a problem so we can run out a great hitter who’s an appalling hitter” is facile. We can just play Ankiel or Schumaker there and get similar production from two guys who are inferior hitters but better defenders.
I have no idea what you’re even talking about as regards LaRue. This post seems to mostly be nonsensical.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn’s career obp is .382
DeRosa’s is .347
Dunn’s hit 206 homers the last 5 years, Derosa has 77 for career
Dunn slg% is.520, Derosa .423
Dunn’s FP is.973 DeRosa .975
The fewest games Dunn has started has been 101
The most DeRosa has started has been 80. Why? He’s not a starter. He’s not an impact player.
He’s a good utility player, he’s not a big difference maker.
Our problem is not that we don’t have enough guys who aren’t willing to move around and do whatever they’re asked, our problem is that as the year goes on (if Ludwick/Ankiel/Duncan don’t really step up) we’re going to watch Pujols get walked in high leverage situations because whoever we put behind him can’t do any damage. A guy like Dunn gives us the same bad defense we have from Duncan with a major offensive upgrade. Dunn is not the whole package, I didnt say he was. He’s a one dimesional player who just happens to provide the thing we need most. If what we needed most was improved defense in left we could accomplish that in-house. We need a power bat to make sure that as the year goes on the best hitter in the game gets a chance to hit, not walk and watch the cleanup batter ground out to 2nd base. Id much rather have a combo of Dunn in LF with Barden/Thurston on 3B than DeRosa at 3B with Duncan in left
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
Dunn's cumulative WAR over the past 3 years: 4.7
Derosa’s: 6.8
Dunn is a much better hitter than DeRosa, nobody is going to argue that. However, Dunn also plays an un-valuable defenfensive postion and plays it terrible. His UZR this year is already -13.8 runs! DeRosa on the other hand is a slightly below average fielder at a harder defensive postion. Hence DeRosa is currently a better player.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't arguing for DeRosa
I was just telling you (not voicing an opinion, because this is fact) that Dunn is a dreadful fielder and gives back nearly all of his above-average bat with his woeful glove, in LF.
If we had a spot at 1B or DH, Dunn is a good add. In left field, he’s just not very good, and not worth expending any talent/$ for.
And Dunn doesn’t give us the same bad defense Duncan did/does – he’s EVEN WORSE.
I agree we need a better hitter but
a) we need a RIGHT-HANDED hitter, not yet another lefty, otherwise we could just call up wallace and his awful defense and put him at 3B.
b) bringing in someone who’s a great hitter but a merely average player because of his crappy defense is not improving the team.
As much as you make vague, subjective statements about “needing a power bat”, and “needing protection for APu”, you haven’t addressed those two points, which is the entire crux of my (correct) argument, nothing to do with DeRosa.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions
its a dunn deal
what you all seem to be missing is that all dunn has played on are crappy teams. to actually put him in a lineup that could do something would be dangerous! not only would he good for the lineup but he would be great for the team, he has a great club presence.
however we will never get rid of baby dunc as long as poppa dunc is around. it would most likely be ank, top pitching prospect, and some bargin bin deal to get dunn.
by conan_the_barbarian on Jun 5, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
And no,
Dunn’s defense has always been terrible and will continue to be terrible. This combined with his good hitting still makes him below average. Please actually read the posts you are commenting.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
defense?
would you have wanted sammy sosa on your team, how about ted williams, or how about vlad Guerrero. all guys that have fielding percentages the same or lower than dunn. not only that dunn has a shot to put up more HR than a couple of these guys. challange!
by conan_the_barbarian on Jun 5, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
You just used fielding percentage as part of an argument.
This is grounds for dismissal from the internet.
Fielding percentage measures success rate on plays in which a fielder gets his hands on the ball. Do you see how that could be misleading when applied to one of the heaviest and least mobile players in baseball? If not, let me spell it out for you a bit further: Fielding percentage is a terrible stat because it doesn’t measure range or arm strength. It only measures success rate on balls a player gets to. When a player has terrible range they can only make it to easy balls, therefore their success rate and fielding percentage skyrockets while they badly hurt their team.
Meanwhile, actual useful stats such as UZR and outfield arm rate him as well below average. Often, they rate him far enough below average that the gains he gives to an offense are almost completely wiped out by his horrible defense.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
wat
Dunn’s a huge offensive upgrade from [Duncan/Ankiel
wat
i know it’s hard to be as bad as duncan. but dunn is “a huge offensive upgrade” over ankiel? gtfo of here
Dunn is the worst defender in the majors
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
am i reading that wrong
or are you agreeing with me?
i just don’t see how ankiel isn’t miles better than dunn
I'm agreeing with you
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
are you guys mixing terms?
Ankiel is a much better defender than Dunn
Dunn is a huge OFFENSIVE improvement over Duncan and Ankiel
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
by boba schrute on Jun 4, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
but his defense is so bad that it makes him about as good as those two guys.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
disagree vehemently
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions
He's
cost more runs on defense than Skip. And Dunn has played LF forever.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I was only being half serious
I personally just can’t see his defense being such a liability that it makes him no more an effective player as Ankiel, Skip, Duncan, etc
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Ankiel is better at Dunn at defense
but he’s miles behind Dunn in hitting. hence, Dunn is the better player
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Dunn is a similar hitter to Ankiel
Only better at everything. If you imagine Ankiel, only he actually lives up to the “40 home run power” every single damn year, and he also gets on base, then you have Adam Dunn.
I honestly don’t know how much the defense question equalizes them, I’ll leave that to the smarter people.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
Ankiel is playing so putridly on offense right now
that it seems insulting to Dunn to even compare them
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn is at least average as a LF, if not slightly above
realistically, it’s prob a stretch to call Ank and Dunc average at this point. So Dunn’s better, but not by much, and he doesn’t solve our RHB problem, and he doesn’t have much upside (it’s always possible Dunc finds his power and hits like it’s 06, or Ank gets locked in again as he was in 08… I don’t think either of them gets WORSE than they currently are, but I don’t think Dunn gets much better).
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't mind Dunn IF and only if
it means he replaces Duncan.
TRADE FOR DEROSA!!!
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs," Carpenter said. "That is a fact."
He’s not a good fielder, that’s for sure. But he can hit the ball a mile. When Duncan a couple years ago I could overlook his D with no problem because I knew he could make up for it with the bat. If we put Dunn behind Albert in the lineup look out Central. And who knows how much more damage Dunn will do when they have to pitch to him. Those two guys back to back would spell trouble. Think back to a few short years ago when we could throw a Pujols-Edmonds-Rolen at a team, wouldnt it be nice to lineup with Raz-Pujols-Dunn-Ludwick? Thats intimidation. That’s the kind of order that distracts pitchers. They’ll be thinking about the next several batters instead of just focusing on Pujols. Right now I think that Raz and Lud are worried to much about providing the pop in the lineup when AP’s getting walked. Dunn has made a career taking that pressure on himself and blasting the ball. He’s a winner for us!
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
isn't it obvious?
The Todd call-up is all about him getting some big league experience before he is traded for Dunn
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I wish it were obvious.
I havent heard a word whispered about Dunn being linked to the Cards. I’m just hoping that someone up top might be thinking about it. Recent history makes me think that this front office are vultures. They go around picking up scraps from other teams instead of looking for the cream of the crop. I feel like they owe us something. We keep going through the turnstyles at Busch. They never look out and see an empty stadium do they? We have more people in the ninth inning on the wrong end of a blowout than the Marlins, Pirates, Nats have on a Sunday afternoon. If they want to play it cheap and call it a rebuilding season then do it. Don’t go out shopping at the second hand store and tell me youre trying to win a championship though
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
All fair comment
re: ownership etc.
However, getting Dunn is not the way to go about it. He’s a terrible fit for the Cardinals, because we don’t need a first baseman or a DH.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't see how dunn is an impact player and derosa isn't.
dunn has been worth, because of his atrocious defense, 1.8, 2.9, and 1.3 wins.
in the last 3 years, derosa’s been worth: 2.9, 2.6, 3.8 WAR.
if this were an AL team, he’d be great. but one of ankiel or duncan might be as likely to produce what adam dunn will this year, balancing out defense and offense.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 4, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
He’s an impact player for us because he gives fills our glaring hole. DeRosa is a good player. He’ll do whatever he’s asked. I hear he’s a great teamate and very popular wherever he goes. But the thing is, he’s still an above average utility player. His balance game doesnt give us what we’re lacking. Some power and presence in the middle of our lineup. Why have we used 8 different cleanup men this year behind Albert? Because none of them have done the job. Alberts still getting walked or pitched around because opposing pitchers know that we have nothing behind him. And going out and getting the best defender in the league is not going to solve that problem. We’re in need of somebody who poses a threat to other pitchers and protects Albert, not someone who is going to have a .005 higher fielding % than Thurston or Barden. I’m in favor of getting DeRosa for some help, but not for a solution.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
Dunn
fills one hole while digging another.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 4, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
right now we have the defensive hole w/o the benefit of any offense
I’d love to hear suggestions on how to fix our scoring problem, but I’m telling you, DeRosa’s .264 is not the answer. We need some “BOOM, BOOM, FIYAPOWA”
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
stop citing batting average
care about defense. care about postion
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
You are the only one quoting fielding percentage
Nobody else cares about that shit. You fail to acknowledge that despite the fact that Dunn is an excellent hitter, his defense takes away almost all of his offensive value.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
you hit the trifecta.
not someone who is going to have a .005 higher fielding % than Thurston or Barden
fielding percentage cite – check
DeRosa’s .264 is not the answer
analysis of a player’s offense solely by batting average – check.
BOOM, BOOM, FIYAPOWA
meaningless drivel in lieu of analysis – check.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Trifecta indeed.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
You forgot to mention that i haven’t been using spellcheck either. DeRosa does some things better than Dunn. He’s faster, he’s a better defender, he has better hair and cholesterol. I still say what we need to change the team in a drastic way is a big bat behind Pujols, not an upgrade at utility player. Maybe you think that he’s a utility player for some other reason than he’s not good enough to be a position player. If that’s the way to use your impact players then why doesn’t anyone do it? He could help us, but he won’t change our team that much. I’m afraid that we’re a team that is walking a line with first place on one side and fifth place on the other. We’ve gotten by so far this year by one aspect of our team playing over their heads. Our offense was incredible in April, but K. Green didn’t stick at cleanup, Barden and Thurston aren’t batting .380 anymore. They leveled off. Our pitching was unhittable for a few games in May, we only had to score 1 or 2 runs to win. They came back to earth. If we have a June-August of this group or even this group plus DeRosa playing at a reasonable level, I don’t think we stand a chance. The rest of the league will start pitching to Pujols less and less as the games become more important unless we give them a reason not to pitch around him. Throw Dunn out of the picture, DeRosa doesn’t provide a reason for the pitchers to let Albert hit. Now you’ve given your little barbs about my “meaningless drivel” without providing any reason why I should think that DeRosa will provide what we’re missing. You can’t win with one star and a several hardworking moveable pieces.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
I think you might be on the wrong site
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/cards
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
We should set him up with Bernie
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn is another Duncan
An OF meant to be a 1B. Dunn’s a lefty bat, but he’s another OF. Like many other posts on getting another OF, we DO NOT need outfielders – we have enough as is!
I’ll take DeRosa or a 3B/SS over an OF like Dunn.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
i'd take Dunn everyday of the week over Dunk
only because he’s healthy, and Dunk is still on the mend
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I like Dunn...but come on...
Anyway, today I saw a story that The Nats may be dealing Adam Dunn in exchange for some good pithcing prospects.
So you’re going to send them Ankiel, Walters, and Todd. Well Ankiel used to be a good pitching prospect, but now he plays outfield, Walters is a long reliever at best, and Todd has been moved to the bullpen. So where are the “good pitching prospects” that they want? That doesn’t even include our three best pitching prospects, which would be Mortenson, Boggs, and Lynn, because they’re all starters.
Ank, who I still root for and think has better days ahead, but will ultimately leave for more money. I actually expect a little less than a Drew type deal for him next year, his tools impress people.
I still root for him, but I’d give that up if the Cubs signed him to a “JD Drew” type of deal. Because that might help hold down their franchise for the next 5 years. Do you know how good JD Drew is? Because comparing him to Rick Ankiel would make JD’s parents cry. It really would:
Drew (career): .283/.391/.501 OPS+ 128 He’s also worth half a win on defense in RF.
Do you want to know some other guys who have around a 128 career OPS+? Dave Winfield (130), Chase Utley (129), Carl Yastrzemski (128), Sammy Sosa (128), and Rickey Henderson (127). I’d say that’s pretty good company — and Rick Ankiel is nowhere near as talented as any of those players, great tools or not. I did Rick and favor and only used his last three years as a position player here:
Ankiel (career): 263/.329./493/.821 OPS+ 112
That looks pretty good. Now lets look at 2009: .223/.296/.369/.665 OPS+ 74
Drew’s never been that bad, and he’s been hurt more than Ankiel has. Would you give that guy a $70M contract? Hopefully Jim Hendry does….
Pujols is batting .340 w/ 16 homeruns and zero protection all year.
That’s because lineup protection is a myth, and the hitters hitting in front of Pujols have been pretty good this year, putting guys on base in front of him so other teams can’t walk him. That’s much more important that putting a great hitter behind him. Ryan Ludwick had a .900+ OPS in April and so did Chris Duncan, and both of them hit 4th nearly the entire month.
I also think it would really help Raz and Ludwick to have another thumper in the lineup so they can focus on getting their averages up.
I would prefer they just focused on hitting the ball hard, swinging at only strikes, and getting on base as much as possible, but I guess that might help their “averages go up” too. So I guess we both win that one. But I don’t see how Dunn’s presence improves everyone else on the team when they already have the best hitter in baseball on their team and that doesn’t seem to be helping any of them at all.
I would actually support a trade for Dunn, in fact, I was one of the guys clamoring to sign him this offseason because he’s a guy that would play well in our outfield. But your package would barely bring back Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard, much less Adam Dunn.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I’ll gladly let you put together the package to get something done, but his is the type of bat we need to protect Albert. As far as lineup protection being a myth, I’m not sure how you come up with that. If that’s the case then why have we had to search up and down our lineup to try and find someone to hit behind him and stay there. Last year Ludwick was the answer, but it was because of the way he hit. If there’s a percieved easy out after Pujols (theyre all easi-ER than Pujols) then why ever pitch to him. For Albert to see pitches we need someone on base in fronrt of him and an rbi threat behind him. If we don’t get that from someone he’s going to see more and more walks. I’m not going to keep going with this topic. I didn’t know Dunn was such a pariah to Cardinal fans. He’s a guy I’ve wanted on our side for a long time and I think he would plug a major hole for us right now. DeRosa is a good utility player that is worth having buyt doesn’t fix our main weakness. Scoring runs.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
See...you're only looking at one side of the ball.
This is why we use stats like WAR (that’s Wins Above Replacement) to evaluate things because it measures both his offense and his defense.
Defensively, Dunn is about the worst outfielder in the major leagues. I’ve argued before that he’s not much worse than Duncan, but that’s actually false by UZR — Dunn is nearly a win (10 runs saved = 1 win) worse than Duncan in the outfield for his entire career. I’ve also argued that UZR isn’t a great tool for measuring guys at different positions, and I still believe that, but it’s a fantastic tool for measuring players playing the SAME position, and since Duncan and Dunn both play LF it applies.
Now, when you take that into account, his bat isn’t nearly so good in comparison with Derosa’s, because Derosa is worth a 0.5 – 1 wins with the glove. His bat isn’t as good as Dunn’s, but when you’re factoring in defense, Derosa is actually about a win better over the course of a season (for the last two seasons in a row) than Dunn is, despite the offensive disparity.
As far as lineup protection being a myth, I’m not sure how you come up with that.
It’s been proven sabermetrically, time and again, that lineup protection has very little correlation to the performance of a particular batter. As I said, getting people on base in front of Pujols is a bigger help than having someone hit behind him. If you’re saying that we should trade for Dunn and hit him second, I’d be all for that. But I think you want to hit him 4th, and that’s not where he would make the greatest impact on our lineup. If you haven’t noticed, Albert Pujols is leading the National League in OPS right now, hitting at an 1.137 clip and slugging nearly .700 on the season despite nary a bat behind him? Is he going to OPS 1.400 with Dunn hitting behind him? Um, no, so how can you defend the “lineup protection” argument when Pujols is hitting so well right now?
I didn’t know Dunn was such a pariah to Cardinal fans.
Who said he was a pariah to any of us Cardinal fans? I think that a lot of us would accept a trade for Dunn, as long as we’re minimizing the defensive liability while he keeps OPSing over 1.000. If anything, he’s a pariah for those of us who value defense as well as offense because he’s been a terrible defensive player his entire career. He’s a sabermetric paradox the likes of which we’ve rarely ever seen — Isolated Patience of nearly .200, incredible walk rate, great wOBA despite low contact rate, horrible defense. He’s a conundrum, not a pariah.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think he would plug a major hole
heh
heh
by prophetjohn on Jun 4, 2009 10:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
then he would fit right in St Louis then
seeing as they are the capitol of STD’s and such
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
That's what
she said?
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll probably never get my wish and see Dunn batting behind Pujols but when I take a simple look at the two scenarios we’re looking at it’s a no brainer to me
Duncan in LF/DeRosa at 3B
or
Dunn in LF Barden/Thurston at 3B
Dunn is going to give us a much bigger improvement over Duncan than DeRosa gives us over the platoon of Barden/Thurston
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
I agree that Barden and Thurston are a pretty good platoon, and that DeRosa wouldn't be a huge upgrade
But you are definitely overvaluing Dunn. He is an excellent hitter, nobody is going to argue that, but his defense is beyond atrocious and negates all of his offensive value. By linear weights, he was worth about 28 runs above average with the bat last year, but his UZR was -28 also. Combine that with the fact that he plays an easy defensive position and he was a below average player last year. This year, he is following the same trend. He’s been worth +13 runs with the bat, and -13 runs with the glove.
Ankiel, OTOH, might not be nearly as good of a hitter as Dunn, but he is also a solid defender in a corner spot. if he could get back to last years performance with the bat, he would be a better player than Dunn this year.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Right now with Ank and Duncan in the outfield we have 1 good defender and 1 thats as bad as Dunn. Iv’e never seen anyone make simple plays look as difficult as Duncan. But you also have to consider that those two guys arent hitting squat. They’re clogging up two spots of prime real estate in our lineup usually hitting # 2 or 4-6. That’s a lot of wasted opportunities between the two of them. If you want to keep one of them around, Ankiel would be the perfect late inning defensive replacement for Dunn. Duncan would be the perfect catcher on a rec softball team. And I honestly dont think I’m overvaluing Dunn. I think I know exactly what we’s be getting from him. A big slow lumbering ape that can’t field or throw but can hit a ton and works a lot of walks. Currently we have a big slow lumbering ape that cant field and looks like its a complete accident if he puts the ball in play. Dunn is a huge upgrade because of his offense. His defense is a wash if he’s replacing Duncan. Think of how sick everyone would have been at the game tonight if Dusty Baker would have followed Hrabosky’s advice and not pitched to Albert. Carpenter would have taken a 1-0 loss because nobody in our lineup seems capable of producing. We need to get some offense before they just start giving Albert the full blown Bonds treatment. DeRosa just doesnt provide that much of a threat. If we have Dunn following Albert, he’s going to see more strikes. And we all saw tonight what he does when he gets some strikes. Harang challenged Albert because he’s had success in the past. I think Albert was only hitting in the .240’s before tonight. Most guys arent going to be bold enough to pitch to him unless there’s a dangerous hitter in the on deck circle. I dont want to see Albert getting walked all year because he’s our only offensive weapon.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
by boba schrute on Jun 5, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
You really seem to have a problem with player value
Dunn gives away as many runs with his glove as he creates with his bat. It’s pretty simple. Right now, Dunn is below average player. He will not help this team more than Duncan, who’s defense is actually quite a bit better than Dunn’s. I really don’t know how to explain this to you any more clearly.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 5, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Your formulas might show somehow that Dunn is a zero value player but for some reason mlb clubs continue to pay him tens of millions of dollars. It’s because he produces. He hits at a high enough level that it overshadows his shoddy defense. It’s no different than paying a light hitting SS for great defense. When Ozzie was playing we didn’t have him because he was a complete player. There were ss’s with more power, higher averages, more steals, but we kept marching him out there because he was so good at one aspect of the game. If someone has a piece of the puzzle that your team needs, you go after them. The need defines the value of a player, not a formula. Our glaring need is offense. That’s what he does. Thats all he does. I’ve seen nearly every game this year, when we lose, more often than not, it’s been because of a lack of hitting, not fly balls dropped in left field. Dunn hits at a high level in the major leagues every year. So maybe instead of trying to explain it to me clearly, maybe you can start explaining to professional teams, people who get paid to make these decisions, why they are all idoits for wanting the Adam Dunns of the world batting 4th in their lineups and playing left field instead of Mark DeRosa. If you can convince people in the industry he’s no good you’ll have my full support. But as long as I keep seeing him produce and teams are still paying him a lot of money because of it, I’m still going to hope the Cards get him. If they can get a more complete player, even better. Maybe Matt Holliday ends up here after all. But if the choice was Dunn or DeRosa (which is not even the case) Dunn would solve our offensive woes a lot faster.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
We’re on the same side here vivaelpujols. Dunn’s just my opinion about how to generate some runs and help Pujols see some more pitches. I’m no expert, just a fan. If my opinion mattered then I’d be getting paid for it. I’ve heard a bunch of criticism of Dunn’s game but haven’t heard much of an alternate plan from anyone besides DeRosa to 3B. You seem well versed on the inner workings of the game and you’re obviously a big beleiver in crunching the numbers. What’s your solution? Who fills our offensive void in the forseeable future?
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
I don't think the void neccesarily needs to be filled on offense
Watching our team struggle to score runs may be ugly to watch, but if our pitching/defense is good, we will win games. I personally wouldn’t trade for DeRosa, because I think that Thurston/Barden make a pretty good platoon and the upgrade wouldn’t be enough to give up.
It’s clear that left field is the biggest weakness for us, however, as I’ve expressed above, I don’t think that Dunn is that much better that the guys we have now. Matt Holliday would be the perfect fit. He projects to be a 5-6 WAR player, and he hits from the right side, which is something that we are lacking right now.
However, he would probably cost too much to get. I couldn’t see Oakland taking anything less than Wallace + prospect (which is comparable to what the Brewers traded to get Sabathia). Then again, he probably offers the largest upgrade of any player that’s available, and given that the Cards are likely right in that sweet spot between 86-93 wins where even a couple of extra wins could improve our chances of making the playoffs dramatically, he might just be worth it.
Short of Holliday, there is no big impact guy who would be worth what we would have to give up. I would like to see us go for a low risk – high reward type player, like Kevin Kouzmanoff or BEN SHEETS.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
Dunn would be nice
but ultimately he would see limited playing time due to him being taken out of the game all the time for defensive replacements. he’s another lefty bat… and one of Dunn’s best assets is taking walks, which aren’t going to help as much batting behind Pujols. his batting average is so low that he’s not going to be knocking in tons of runs unless he hits it out, which of course is entirely possible. still, if the best thing he can do is knock in Pujols, then I’m not so sure it’s a good idea since he historically has a low BA and strikes out alot. still, I really like Adam Dunn as a player, but ultimately he needs to start playing in the AL as a DH
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2009 3:17 AM EDT reply actions
So I read today...
That Hank Blalock might be made available for relief pitching/ I’ve never seen the guy play but his historical stas on mlb.com say that he’s played 3B before. He already has 12 homeruns this year so he has some power. I dont know how good his defense can be beacuse it looks like he’s currently a DH. It also appears that if Glaus comes back able to hit but not field then Mo may seek to trade him to someone in need of 1B or DH. And yesterday after I posted my Dunn idea, which most hate, I read that Matt Holliday may be getting a look from the Cards once again. I hear that he’s is starting to hit pretty well after a very slow start. I think he’s batting in the .270’s with 7 hr’s and would be a big upgrade at the plate and in left field. Haven’t heard what the A’s want for him but I’m still feeling a bit miffed because of the Mulder deal. I donb’t think that they may have any inclinations that Holliday’s not healthy, but we got the short end of the stick last time. Holliday and/or Blalock would provide some much needed offense.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
His defense is terrible and he's been a real injury issue most of his recent career
he is a good hitter though. I don’t think he can even play 3B anymore, let alone be any good there. I reckon we’d have to play him at 1B and we already have someone there, I think…
Garrett Atkins might be the only legitimate stick who’s readily available and who can play 3B, but again, he’s not very good with the glove, and you have to worry about the Coors effect…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Not only that
he’s short one rib…meaning, well, I’m not quite sure what that means exactly…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
MYTH: Dunn in LF=Duncan in LF
If you think Duncan makes routine plays more dramatic, you haven’t seen anything. Dunn literally single-handedly lost the WBC for the USA with his defense. If you think Chris Duncan has been worse this year than usual, you’d be correct. For most years, his fielding is just below average, never reaching even the -5 plateau over a whole season (this is partially due to playing time, but read on). However, this year he figures to almost triple that figure, giving up a whopping 13 runs on defense.
If you think that’s as bad as it gets, you’re sorely mistaken. Adam Dunn has already given up 13 runs with the defensive holocaust that he is. Let me repeat myself. Adam Dunn has already been more damaging to his team with his defense in 52 games than Chris Duncan figures to be in his worst season over 150 games.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

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