Zimming through a Trade Proposal
Which player would you rather have? Both are 3B:
Player A: .301/.367/.516 WOBA .383 UZR/150 16.6
Player B: .270/.372/.483 WOBA .371 UZR/150 5.0
As the Cardinals are currently constructed, you'd probably love to have both of these players. Both are middle of the lineup types that would certainly give our anemic offense a boost. And both can more than hold their own at the hot corner. Obviously, however, Player A is the who you'd rather have assuming all other things are equal. Player A becomes even more attractive when you realize that he is 24 while player B is 32.
How much does the fact that Player A would cost premium prospects change your feeling about him? Add to that that Player B would cost no prospects at all? That may change things just a bit, but I'd have to say most would still like Player A more.
Ok, enough of this secrecy. If you haven't figured it out by now, Player A is Ryan Zimmerman and Player B is Troy Glaus. Zimmerman's stats are his updated ZiPS projections and while I know that projections are just that, his number through June 3 show that he could potentially exceed these numbers(.322/.391/.550 WOBA .401). Glaus's numbers are from 2008(only his second plus defensive year since 2002 by the way). Zimmerman's .358 BABIP is unsustainable which means his BA and OBP will drop, but his ISO is a hefty .227 meaning he will probably still be very productive even with the anticipated dip in BA. In summary, Zimmerman is a baller and I'd love to see him in a uniform that has birds on a bat.
I'm going to look at the McClouth deal as a starting point for this. Notice I said starting point because, lets face it, Zimmerman is better than McClouth. They are, however, both the face of their respective franchises and probably the best offensive players on the teams, IMHO. The guys over at futureredbirds.net seem to think that the Braves got the raw end of the deal, and I tend to agree with them(not to mention look to them for all of my prospecting needs). An equivalent of the deal that landed McClouth would be Daryl Jones, Clayton Mortensen, and a throw in pitcher. This will obviously not land us Zimmerman, as a two 4 star prospects+a throw in offer will be laughed at very quickly. What about a 5 star, a 4, a 3 and a guy who I think should be a 3-star? The deal I am thinking about is Brett Wallace(5 star), Chris Perez(4-star), Bryan Anderson(3-star) or one of our AAA pitchers(Mort, Boggs) and Allen Craig.
Here's my thinking. Wallace becomes the Nationals answer at first base. Nick Johnson is always hurt and Dmitri Young is, well, Dmitri Young. Wallace becomes very expendable for us if we have Zimmerman and Pujols as he doesn't have a position outside of 3b and 1b(not seeing LF as a viable option, though we have had Duncan there the past 3 years). The Nats get their closer in Chris Perez and we have minor league relievers who can take his spot(Todd). They can take their pick of Anderson, Mort, or Boggs depending on their needs(may actually choose Anderson with all of the pitching they have in the pipelines plus Strasburg). Allen Craig becomes the Nats third baseman. I think Craig is underrated. He can hit for power, puts up an ok average and from everything I have read, can handle the hot corner.
I think with this deal, we answer a huge need for this year and for the future(Zimmerman is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2013(09:$3.325M, 10:$6.25M, 11:$8.925M, 12:$12M, 13:$14M). We answer this need without giving up too much. A lineup with Rasmus, Pujols, Zimmerman as the 2-3-4 makes me salivate. This would also show Pujols that we are serious about winning, which can only help when we start with extension talks. DeWitt has said he is ok with adding some payroll this season as well. Oh, and for those of you are wondering about park factors ESPN has Busch and Nationals Park as almost identical.
So, would you guys do this deal? Do you think the Nationals would do this deal? What would it take?
All Stats from Fangraphs.com
Prospect ratings from Baseballprospectus
Contract info from Cot's Baseball Contracts
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45 comments
Comments
just based on the title,
i was prepared to dismiss this out of hand as another duncan-for-cain proposal. by including wallace, perez, and two others, however, you’ve made what i think is at least a reasonable offer.
that said, i still don’t think the nats would do this. in addition to just the talent differential, the key difference between he and mclouth is that mclouth is at his peak – the pirates are trying to sell high, and i think they did ok, though not great. zimmerman, as you point out, is only 24, and is going to keep getting better. not only is he the face of the nationals franchise (unless you’re the dugout, where it’s clearly SteakGrowsOnDmitri, or one year in the future, where it’s clearly strasburg), he’s the position player they want to build around, and rightly so.
i think the package you’ve suggested is fair, but i still think they wouldn’t go for it.
by nycbirdo on Jun 4, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yea
i don’t think the nats are looking to sell…but they are out of it and could help themselves at a couple of positions for the future by trading him…plus free up some money for the huge bonus they are going to have to pay strasburg
i feel about the nats and zimmerman the same i feel about the padres and gonzalez…they could really do good by themselves if they traded them now
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly feel
that if Gonzalez gets out of Petco, he’ll be the 2nd best 1B in baseball… I reckon Atlanta should be looking at selling most of their farm system for A-Gone, if they’re serious about winning now.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
just hypothetically, but would the Phillies trade Ryan Howard straight up for Gonzalez? Factoring out the money involved, just player for player.
I’d do it without thinking twice.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 4, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Amaro is vaguely smart they would
I’d guess the answer’s probably yes, but you never know with franchise players and crazy fanbases etc.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree with everything nycbirdo said
all the ‘spects we’re giving up here are replaceable, FOR THE RIGHT PLAYER, and Zimmerman is a heck of a player. I like the fact we’ve avoided shopping Jones (who I think might be the one prospect in the org with a serious future as a star on the team), and I’m leaning to the view that Perez is probably internally replaceable (we could shop him this year, pick up Franklin’s option in 2010, and still not have to sign any free-agent relievers if Todd sticks).
I think the nats’ issue with it might be that swapping a potential 6-win+ player (i.e. a franchise star) for a bunch of guys who are all likely to be average or above average might be a “win” for them in terms of the total marginal wins gained, but is probably undesirable in that they’re spreading those wins thinly across more players; the oft-quoted idiom that an 8-win player is more valuable than two 4-win players, because the spot you free up by only having the single 8-win player is easier to upgrade than either of the spots held by the 4-win players.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
but i see wallace as potentially being a 4-5 win player at first at some point…maybe i am overvaluing his bat
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 4, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But...
Think about it this way:
- You trade away Zimmerman now.
- You trade Dunn for another batch of prospects.
- You draft Strasburg next week with the #1 pick
- You hope you finish last so you can draft Bryce Harper next year after he passes his GED.
You build around Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Wallace, whoever you get for Dunn, and Harper.
Obviously, you have to bring in Ricky Vaughn to make sure you finish last, but think of the possibilities!!!!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 4, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kinda agree
that the Nats “window” in terms of their current prospects is probably in 2-3 years (J. Zimmerman, Strasburg etc), but then R. Zimmerman is signed to a contract over that period as well, so I think it’s a moot point. If he was a free agent in 2011 it makes more sense.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if i'm the nats, i want wallace, pitching, pitching and pitching.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 4, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
agreed...
i’m talking Wallace, Mortenson, Todd, and Motte/Perez…….he’s really the only thing they’ve got going over there. It’d take a major haul
"Greene over to Schumaker, on to first! Double Play!!"
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jun 4, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
would you do this trae
i think i would…maybe i am overrating zimmerman and am jaded by our third base situation
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace, Mort, Todd, Perez?
Done. Where do I sign? That’s why Lunhow drafts like he does. Maybe few superstars, but boatloads of quality depth from which you can formulate trades and replace those traded.
Mort is replaced by Lynn. Todd/Perez replaced by Reifer/Salas/Samuel/etc…
by soil_illini on Jun 4, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea i would
i’m starting to get jaded by our prospects not being all we thought they were…Mather, Freese, Craig, Anderson, Herron, Barton, Ottavino, and so on
Time to crack open the vault and get Scott Rolen V2.0
"Greene over to Schumaker, on to first! Double Play!!"
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jun 4, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
were any of those outside of Anderson and possiblt Ottavino
ever really considered top prospects (outside of VEB that is)?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 4, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd do this trade
with perez, not motte
by prophetjohn on Jun 4, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way we can get zimmerman
but man, i’d take.
and i’d give up wallace in a heartbeat for him
by prophetjohn on Jun 4, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Couple of Thoughts Related to Your Proposal
Zimmerman would be great and yes I would make that trade. I have no idea whether the Nats would be interested in moving Zimmerman at all but the inquiry should be made. Zimmerman does two things – he is an excellent 3B and he hits behind Pujols. He is by far the best option to fill the Cards needs but I doubt that the Nats are interested.
Ideally I would like to see the Cards solve both problems – Good 3B and someone to protect Pujols. If they cannot get that in one player then I am hoping for two moves. DeRosa and Beltre both would be excellent 3B options but I doubt if they supply enough offense to hit behind Pujols. If Ludwick would return to form then either would probably solve the needs, but Ludwick returning to form is the big question. I think Duncan and Ankiel have already proven that they cannot be counted on to handle that responsibility.
The guy other than Zimmerman who I think fits that need and is available is Holliday. I would love Holliday because he would provide protection for Pujols and he would take Duncan’s spot in LF. In my opinion, it takes two trades to round out the Cards – A trade for Holliday and a trade for DeRosa or Beltre. That is unless you could actually get Zimmerman and if you could then Zimmerman would be enough.
Wallace in your proposal is also interesting and will certainly bring out some negative comments as several believe that Wallace is the future 3B. I would really like to see Wallace in the Cards future but I don’t think it is going to happen. He cannot handle the defense and while the idea sounds good just think of Duncan in LF, Schumaker at 2B and then imagine another defensive liability. Defense wins games and Wallace will never be a defensive gem at 3B. He is a 1B or a DH just like Duncan.
The Cards have plenty of trade chips to make a move for Holliday and for DeRosa or Beltre and Duncan and Wallace should be included in those chips. They also have depth in the pen and could afford to give up Perez – additionally they have depth at SS and could give up Ryan, T.Greene or Kozma. There are trading chips but are they willing to put up the money ?
I think that the Cards can help themselves GREATLY by simply getting their players in the right position and by playing their best players. Schumaker back to LF, Rasmus in CF, Ludwick in RF , Ryan at 2B and Tyler Greene at SS would help as much as anything!
by Warcard on Jun 4, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i am actually one of the people who thinks wallace can handl third
at leas for a few years…i’ve seen him play at memphis twice now, and he made some nice plays and strong throws…he’ll never be a plus, but also won’t be such a negative that he’s unusable
i do not condone trading wallace unless we get a good 3rd baseman back, and preferably a good young third baseman
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 4, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha ha I wonder what it'd take to pry Longoria away
especially now he’s signed that team-friendly decade-long deal.
I’m guessing it STARTS with Pujols. That or Wallace, Rasmus, Jones, Perez and Anderson or something of that sort. That’s scary….
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 4, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we'd probably have to give them our fanbase
they need to fill tropicana field
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 4, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Longoria won't be traded
Because the Rays can compete in the post-season. Right now, the Nationals have no shot at that option.
You only go fire-sale if you have a change in ownership, or your team is completely out of the running.
by JWO on Jun 5, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace Handling 3B
I have only seen him play one time in person but I agree completely with your assessment. I think he could handle 3B as he seems to have a strong accurate arm and he seems to make the basic plays. My problem is that I do not believe that he will ever be a really good defensive 3B and that there needs to be a stronger emphasis on defense. I am also of the opinion that the Cards will never win with Duncan in LF and Schumaker at 2B. I think they can handle the position but they are not a plus on defense. I think Wallace would be a better defensive 3B than Duncan is a LF’der but that, in my opinion, just is not enough. I am one who pulled for Schumaker to make it at 2B and thought that it was a good move, but I can also see how many balls get through and that just won’t cut it at this level.
I hope I am wrong – I hope Wallace ends up being a good 3B and I hope Schumaker and Duncan prove me wrong as well!
by Warcard on Jun 4, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d love to go get Zimmerman but I’m not sure he’s the one the Nats will be shopping. He’s the type that you build around. I just posted an idea about going after Dunn instead. He can’t be a part of the long term for DC. He’s a one dimensional player that just happens to provide the on dimension that we need this year. If Mo could get a Zimmerman deal done, I’d be willing to give up Wallace without thinking about it
by boba schrute on Jun 4, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There is really no reason for them to trade Zimmerman
He is already a 5-6 WAR player and is under contract for 5 more years. Any prospects they get back (unless maybe Wallace, Rasmus and someone else) would justify them giving that up.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you act like WAR is always considered by top o the line GMs*
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 4, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They trade him to get better.....
At other positions.
Maybe they feel they have enough in the pipelines to do this already, or maybe they don’t really like what we are offering back. But teams that are bad at almost every position do themselves no good sitting on one good player.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jun 4, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They do if that guy is under contract
Realistically, there is no way they could replace his production with any players they would get back in a trade.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 4, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well.....
I disagree with that. Maybe not replace it immediately, but I’m not sold that Wallace won’t produce at that level.
And again, it is about getting better at multiple positions. So even if you are slightly worse at 3B after the deal, being better in your pen and your OF (or where ever) makes up for it. And in this hypothetical, the Cards are offering back cost controlled guys too.
Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable." - Manager Bobby Bragan
by SoonerfanTU on Jun 5, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering that Zimm has having a great year
There is NO WAY that Washington will trade him, especially since he’s the team’s biggest star (other than Dunn). We’ll only have to wish that we had him.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
by zoomzoomj88 on Jun 4, 2009 8:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Except Washington has no possibility of making the Post Season
The deal probably won’t happen. But Zimmerman would get the Nationals a maximum return right now. I’d put the odds of this working at around 10%. Maybe.
by JWO on Jun 5, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind trading Wallace + others for Zimmerman
I just don’t think the Nats would be interested.
Forgive me while I dream of
Rasmus
Pujols
Ludwick
ZImmerman
How do you lose with that core in the lineup? Add to that the Defense. Man that would be amazing.
by TheBirds on Jun 4, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd guess Wallace is very much in play
He’s eligible for trade next week, right? I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him moved for the right deal if it presents itself. I would guess it will all depend on how the team evaluates his play at 3rd. It’s still pretty inconclusive to me. Problem is that if it becomes apparent he won’t stick we can find ourselves backed in a corner where it becomes difficult to get full value in return. If teams become increasing confident we don’t have a place to put him but first, we may end up getting 75 cents on the dollar with him.
I will not be surprised at all if he’s this years Matt Laporta.
by Merry CRasmus on Jun 4, 2009 11:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would MUCH rather send him to Minnesota or somewhere in the AL for young, MLB-ready pitching.
If they’d give us, say, Slowey straight up (unlikely) or Blackburn plus ‘spects, I’d look into that before trying an unlikely mega-deal that empties our farm system for Zimmerman.
Arguably, Tampa Bay could use a DH-type as well (possibly a 1B as Pena is out of contract in a couple of years). Baltimore too (Huff’s gone after this year, they’ve got plenty of excellent young pitching depth in the minors).
Either that, or shift him to an AL team for a decent AAA middle infielder. There’s lots of possibilities.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love the idea of getting Zimmerman
and the offer you put on the table is fairly solid, but it’s just impossible for the Nats to fathom giving up what he brings. He gives that franchise some sort of identity. When you think of the Nats, and Zimmerman goes away, who do you think of, Dunn? You can’t build around him. Johnson? Perhaps he is a late bloomer, but he basically brings an aura of identity that Pujols brings, if that makes some sense.
I love the idea of Holliday, especially now, since he is now used to his ballpark and has been mashing it the past month. We won’t be able to deal from our Pitching depth however, as the A’s seem to have plenty. So who would we make the centerpiece of that deal?
Another option? Zimmermann’s happy old sidekick, Adam Dunn. The dude can straight up hit, and can play the outfield at an above Manny level(official baseball term). He may have a ton of strikeouts, but he always will produce 40 homers, and 100 RBI.
Also, Boston has expressed an interest in moving Lowell and move Youkilis to 3rd, and perhaps put someone like V-Mart at first, maybe even their top prospect Lars Anderson, but the drawback here is that he is sort of a clone of Glaus, in the fact that he is a constant injury risk. He is in the 2nd year in a 3 year 36 million dollar contract(I think?), so he is basically what Glaus is being paid. The more I think about it, I think that Glaus IS Mike Lowell!
My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...
by Taskmaster on Jun 4, 2009 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The dude can straight up hit, and can play the outfield at an above Manny level(official baseball term)
It’s pretty hard to be sub-Manny, but Dunn has managed to do so. He was “worth” -28 runs last year, and he’s already -13 this year. That dude should never be allowed to play the field.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 5, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowell probably makes no sense for this team.
he’s still productive and would be a big upgrade now at 3B but he’s not cheap, he’s old, and he’s gone after next year. I’d pass.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2009 6:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I live in Washington, and I'm a Cards fan
With those facts in mind, let me say the Nationals are VERY unlikely to trade Zimmerman. Yes, they need to rebuild. Yes, they need pitching. Yes, they are salary conscious. But they just made Zimmerman a multi-year deal. They consider him the franchise’s cornerstone.
As a baseball move, this trade might make sense. But the odds this deal ever happens is almost zero.
by JWO on Jun 5, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
On second thought
After thinking about this for 15 minutes, I’m upgrading this deal from “almost zero” to “highly unlikely”. This offer DOES make a lot of sense. I still don’t think the Nationals or the Cardinals will pull the trigger. But both clubs are improved by this deal.
Zimmerman hitting behind Albert would be kind of amazing.
I can see the title for Cardinals 2010 Media Guide: “From A (Albert) to Z (Zimmerman)”
by JWO on Jun 5, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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