Bernie *loves* RBIs as a measuring stick for offensive talent
Bernie Miklasz, ladies and gentlmen, has had it. And he's not going to take anymore. He's had with you whiners out there who don't think that Mark DeRosa is an "impact bat." That term, of course, is a TLRism traditionally reserved for Matt Holliday. (Oh, and Bernie's had it with the folks pining for Holliday, too. I'm unsure if that includes TLR.) Bernie begins:
Mark DeRosa is not a judy hitter: One can only laugh at the whining by the minority (but loud) minority of media and fan voices out there who pan the DeRosa trade because he isn’t an "impact bat." You’d think that the guy was just barely a notch above, say, Brian Barden or Joe Thurston. Do these folks even bother to do any homework? Have they paid any attention to the 2009 season?
I will begin by saying that any time one can find a way to insult Go-Go-Joe and his right-handed counterpart in the "replacement player" hyrdra that has been third base for the Cards this season, I am usually all for it. And, yes, I'm excited to see Bernie's term paper entitled, "DeRosa: Impact Bat," which is apparently based on...three months of baseball. What? That's a little more than 300 PAs, which should never be the baseline by which anyone measures a player's ability as a hitter. What's that? Oh, excuse me, Crash. Yes, you can type. No, no problem at all. Go ahead...
Bernie, do you know what the difference between hitting .300 and .250 is? It's twenty-five hits. Twenty-five hits in five hundred at-bats is fifty points, okay? Wait? What? Excuse me. Do you know the difference between hitting .300 and .250 is in about half of a season is? Twelf and a half hits. Yes, I know you can't have a half of a hit, but I'm talking math here, Meat. Twelve and a half hits! There's three months in a half of a season; that's about twelf and a half weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week (and a half a flare in that half-week)--just one--a gorp...you get a "groundball with eyes"...you get a quail, just one more dying quail a week...and you're in Busch Stadium.
Thanks, Crash. That was great. No, no, man. It was great. You absolutely do NOT need any new material. I'd like to add one thing, just one. Bo Hart hit .277 in 322 PAs back in aught-three. Really, Crash. What, you don't believe me? Well, get off my front yard lazy boy and go look that shit up. See? I told you. Look, man, I'd love to go hit some balls at the cage, but I've got to read over Bernie's midterm paper. Yeah, okay, have fun. Say "hi" to Annie for me.
Okay, sorry about that. Back to the Miks.
At the time of the trade that sent DeRosa from Cleveland to St. Louis, DeRosa was 18th in the majors in RBIs. He had more RBIs than Matt Holliday, Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Jim Thome, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Lee,Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, Ryan Zimmerman, DavidWright, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Derrek Lee, Carlos Beltran, James Loney, Nate McLouth,Johnny Damon, Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu,Brandon Phillips, Alfonso Soriano, Dan Uggla and J.D. Drew.
James Loney!? What!? He OPS'd .772 in his first full season as a big league first baseman and is OPSing .731 this season. Why in the blue blazes of Hades is he on your list?
Runs batted in. "RBIs" to the baseball card enthusiasts amongst us. I see that Bernie has read Joe Morgan's book, even if he doesn't cite to the source material of how to measure a good hitter (or, "impact bat" if you live in the Gateway City):
Run production is how you measure hitters. Wins and losses are how you measure pitchers. Batting averages and ERAs are personal stats.
--Joe Morgan in Baseball for Dummies
Run production, which includes RBIs, as the measuring stick of a hitter. Not BA, not OPS, not WAR, not WS, not VORP. RBIs. In order to bat in a run, a runner must have reached base before one steps to the bat. Thus, without runners on-base in front of you, your likely to have less Runs Batted In than players who are fortunate enough to bat with runners on-base in front of them. Mark DeRosa played for Cleveland. He has 88 PA with runners in scoring position. He has gone 22-for-76 in those situations, walking 8 times, being walked intentionally once, and hitting a sacrifice fly 3 times. With men on, DeRosa has had 157 PAs and 45 RBI, which is good for 90 percent of his RBI total.
Still, 50 RBIs is 50 RBIs, man, and that's better than a whole shitload of great impact bats. I mean, clearly Mark DeRosa is better at hitting than Chase Utley. Clearly. He has 50 fucking RBIs! And, Utley, has...51 RBIs. Well, when Bernie wrote the column, DeRosa must have been ahead in the RBI tally by all of one or two RBIs. Clearly better. Oh, and Utley has knocked in his 51 runs in 143 PAs with men on. Yes, Utley has more RBIs in 14 fewer PAs with runners on-base. That's impact, man, deep impact--like the crappy movie from a few years back. What's more,Utley's hit 11, yes 11, solo HRs. DeRosa has 13 HRs total. Utley's OPS? It's .991 and he plays second base like he's channeling his inner Oquendo. D-Ro? His OPS is .782 this season. Yet, the Bern thinks that DeRosa is as impactful, or perhaps moreso because of his RBI total, than Chase Utley?
A quick rundown of the other players whom DeRosa is more impactful than:
Hanley: 52 RBI (now) in 147 PAs with runners on
Miggy: 47 RBI (now) in 139 PAs with runners on
Wright: 40 RBI in 170 PAs with runners on (even though he's hitting .356/.435/.514/.949 with men on)
Puma: 45 RBI in 150 PAs with runners on
Aside from showing that Bernie is a little disingenuous with his representations, this shows how silly the comparison is. Who cares if DeRosa has 1, 2, 5, or 10 more ribbies than [name your impact bat]? DeRosa's OPS is .782, which isn't horrible or anything, but he's replacing Joe Thurston and the Go-Go's at third, who have "hit" .223/.300/.368/.668 (this includes a game from D-Ro). So, he's an upgrade by a whopping 120 points of OPS, which is a shot in the arm offensively no matter how you look at it. We don't need to be hailing him as a mightier driver in of runs than Miggy or Hanley or The Puma, because that's just a bald-faced distortion of his offensive talent and only serves to underline the worthlessness of RBIs as an indicator of hitting talent. Way to use your platform, Bernie. I tip my "STL" cap to you.
De Rosa had as many RBIs as Adam Dunn and as many homers as Thome. DeRosa had more homers than a long list of guys including Holliday, C. Lee, D. Lee, C. Jones,Brad Hawpe, McLouth, Zimmerman, Wright.
DeRosa no longer has "as many RBIs as Adam Dunn." Trust me, Bernie, he's on my Fantasy Team. (I mean, c'mon, Bernie. This blog posted on my Google Reader this afternoon and it's already factually inaccurate.) And while D-Ro may have "as many homers as Thome," Big Jim has had his 13 jacks in 87 fewer PAs (because Big Jim doesn't play in the field any more during Inter-League). This is a silly sentence, Bernie, and the P-D should expect better.
DeRosa may not be, say, Ryan Howard in the slugging department.
Or, Thome, or Miggy, or Puma, or Dunn, or Hanley, or Youk, or Gonzalez....In fact, they have a stat, "Slugging Percentage," that measures slugging. You see, it weights hits so that HRs are worth four times as much as singles. Albert Pujols leads the world in this category and Mark DeRosa, well, he's 80th in MLB in that category with a .446 slugging percentage. Furthermore, after an admittedly quick skim, it seems that every slugger you list slugs more than him. If "impact" means "slugger," then D-Ro is not at the top of the heap.
But he’s been one of the better run producers in baseball this season.
Um, see above, where I quote Joe Morgan in Baseball for Dummies. That is how Joe Morgan grades batsmen.
I have no idea what the mewling is all about; what exactly did you expect GM John Mozeliak to do here, more than a month before the trade deadline? Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams were unavailable, and Stan Musial wasn’t prepared to come out of retirement. Do you see any other sluggers being offered or traded these days? Where are they? And what is an "impact" bat, exactly? If adding a guy who has more RBIs than Beltran, Berkman and Utley isn’t "impact" in your book, then please educate the rest of us. Thanks.
"If adding a guy who has more RBIs than Beltran, Berkman and Utley isn't 'impact' in your book, then please educate the rest of us. Thanks...," Wow, that's what it says. Really. I mean, wow. Education is the most valuable of all commodities. My parents instilled that in me.
Beltran has been on the DL for a week. Remember when you were in New York for the series versus the Metropolitans and he did not play a single inning? Beltran was OPSing .9fucking52 before his knee put him on the shelf. He had driven in 40 runs in 142 PAs. Oh, and he hit .356/.458/.585/1.042 with men on. D-Ro? .304/.365/.529/.894 with men on. That's good, but it's not Carlos Beltran good. In fact, Utley is OPSing 1.106 with men on and The Puma is OPSing .902 with men on. So, if your barometer is performance with runners on the base paths, which apparently Bernie's is because he is using RBIs as his measuring stick, all three of those guys are better than Mark DeRosa. What's more, each OPSes higher than D-Ro for the year: D-Ro, .782; Beltran, .952; Utley, .991; and Puma: .891. Inferring that DeRosa will have more impact on the Cardinals than those three have on their respective teams is utter nonsense.
Any GM, manager, beatwriter, fan, or Fantasy Baseball participant would gladly take Beltran (pre-injury), Berkman, or Utley when posed with the question: "Which of the following two MLB players is more of an "impact" bat? Mark DeRosa or Beltran/Puma/Utley?" This is not to say that DeRosa will not have an "impact," just not as big of an impact as some other, better offensive player. That statement is just silliness.
2. Enough already, for now, about Matt Holliday...
I agree. Moving along, then. (Although, folks should read about Beane's astronomical asking price.)
3. If anything, the Cardinals should be looking for a starting pitcher...
Hmmm. I'm intrigued. Go on...
Todd Wellemeyer has the third-worst ERA (5.53) among MLB starting pitchers and is allowing more base runners per nine innings than any big-league starting pitcher. After being plugged into the rotation as an injury replacement for Kyle Lohse, Brad Thompson was terrific for a while but has gotten bopped around in his last two starts, allowing two of the lesser offenses in the NL (Mets and Giants) to rack him for 9 ER in 11 IP.
Legend has it that The Almighty Duncan saw the foolish Royals cast off a rough-around-the-edges reliever in whom the saw potential. The Cards acquired this hurler int he midst of The Lost Season of Oh Seven." Duncan then instilled in this pitcher the virtues of throwing strikes low in the zone, throwing a sinker to induce groundballs, and pitching to contact. The pitcher thrived and USA Today wrote not one, but two, stories about The Almighty's incredible coaching powers, one featuring a prominent quote by the young Royals castoff on the front page of the Sports section. Now, The Colonel has an ERA of 5.53 (gasp!) after posting one of a mere 3.71 last season. Of course, it should be pointed out that there is this newfangled stat entitled "Fielding Independent Pitching," or, "FIP" to the nerdy seemhead crowd. Wellemeyer's was 4.51 last season, suggesting that his ERA should have been high. And, it is 4.81 this season, suggesting his ERA should be lower. Further delving into Wellemeyer's morass, it should be noted that his good slider is being thrown 6 percent less as a share of his overall pitch count than last year and his changeup has been horrendous this season (4.6 above average value last season; -12.7 value below average this season). Perhaps, scrapping the changeup is in order. No, I don't know how he'd retire lefties in doing so, but it's not like he is now. They are hitting .347/.426/.614/1.040 against him for the year. That's better than Mark DeRosa! Very impactful.
The Faberge Egg propagandists would have you believe that the Cardinals can install one of the Class AAA pitchers from Memphis, but they are not an upgrade at this point.
For starters, insulting folks whose website I frequent really rankles me. "Faberge Egg propagandists?" Where I come from, you might as well call us "communists." This makes the lot who believe in building from within to be blindly devoted to prospects at all costs. If you bother to read Future Redbirds, or, comments on this blog, I think that most folks here take a reasoned and objective view toward the value and ability of the kids on the farm. Sure, some spats with the Proven Veteran adherents will erupt, often bringing out the worst in both camps. Nonetheless, this sentence prompted me to order a faux Faberge Egg for my office and while I'm not Octopussy or a communist, I feel that building our club on a foundation of cheap, homegrown propsects is essential to our sustained competitiveness. And, more to the point, how do you know that Mitchell Boggs or Blake Hawksworth wouldn't be an upgrade over The Colonel or Brad Thompson?
But, the real issue, which is being distorted by Bernie's clever framing, is how do we know that they can't do a largely equivalent job for cheaper, allowing us to divert payroll elsewhere come next spring (like for a Proven Veteran bullpen arm to replace Perez)?
4. Question for the minor-league experts: I wanted to say this up front — I’m being sincere when I ask this: is there anything down below that suggests the Cardinals are well on the way to developing a power-arm starting pitcher? The guys who keep coming up here – Mitchell Boggs, P.J. Walters, Clayton Mortensen — tend to nibble and throw a lot of pitches instead of going after hitters. Seems to me that this is a genuine void in the system; perhaps Lance Lynn (at AA Springfield) fits the profile.
So, what are they? "Faberge egg propagandists" or "minor-league exerpts?" What this open question really demonstrates, I guess, is that Bernie knows nothing about the farm system, about prospects, or about player development. So, when he calls "minor-league experts" "Faberge egg propagandists," it is name-calling born out of complete ignorants. (This isn't terribly surprising since name-calling generally is started by ignoramuses.) It makes me wonder why Bernie doesn't take a few minutes out of his day this offseason to educate himself so his columns and blogs are not founded on ignorance.
If there’s someone in the system who is a legit hard thrower (a starter, not a reliever) please let us know. This is another reason why the Cardinals must sign No. 1 draft pick Shelby Miller, who is a power arm.
Yes, we must sign Miller because we don't have someone with legit, top-of-the-rotation raw stuff. He would quickly become the prized Faberge Egg. It's a brilliant scheme, really. If Miller isn't signed, then we can get a "DeWallet" column. If he is, then we get three years of "Faberge Egg" columns calling on Mo to trade Miller for the next DeRosa-type "impact" run producer. In a way, it's brilliant...
5. DeRosa vs. the NL Central: I was curious as to how the new Cardinal did as a Cub against the rest of the NL Central in 2007-2008...
Why? I mean, he played for the Cubs in both seasons, so he didn't face Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Marshall, etc. Ben Sheets and CC left. The Pirates have by and large maintained their core of young starters, but they are doing way better this year, so the comparison probably isn't apt. There just isn't enough of a sample size against the pitchers to draw anything meaningful from how DeRosa hit against players wearing a certain cap and jersey...
Overall in 2007-2008, DeRosa had 14 homers and 79 RBIs in 500 ABs against Central teams; only 13 players had more RBIs in intramural competition, and only seven had more doubles.
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OH MY GOD! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mark DeRosa has the 14th most fucking RBIs versus NL Central teams in 2007 and 2008!!!!!!!! I take it all back. He is an impact bat like Beltran/Utley/Puma, only better and more impactful!
15 recs |
52 comments
Comments
You should bring that up to Bernie on his board..
So he can rebuttle you.
by Evilfrog on Jun 30, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and ban you
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 30, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll just say he has inside sources that say differently
but never reveal anything else.
by dcfcblues on Jul 1, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it
Good post.
I tire of Bernie’s stuff very quickly. He is a journalist, and it is part of his job to be critical. However, THIS is not being critical, it’s part number 93,408 of the Bernie Miklasz rile them up and go revolt scheme. This is a blatant LOOK AT ME I’M HOLDING SOMEONE ACCOUNTABLE!
This article is also founded on some wacky premise that a large number of folks are wound up that DeRosa isn’t a run producer. Who is that exactly? I presume he means the people who email him or send him letters or whatever. Still, I don’t think the number of emails or letters he receives is a representative sample of Cardinals fans. Whatever.
I love his little diatribe about how this team doesn’t have power arms, but wonders if Lancy Lynn could fill that void. Um…if you were to take three seconds and check up on Lynn you’d realize he’s a pitchability righty. But I wouldn’t expect him to look up anything on the team he you know, gets paid to write about…that’s what losers would do.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 30, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Got kind of a FJM vibe going here....
Well done.
by mtalken on Jun 30, 2009 7:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
rec
great work, bgh
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jun 30, 2009 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
impressive rant...
… but bernie has shown that can be saber-savvy when he wants to be. i took that column as a way to beat the dunderheads on the P-D boards at their own game: they judge “impact” solely in terms of HR and RBI, and bernie is saying that by those metrics DeRosa is as much of an “impact hitter” as Holliday or the other guys on his list.
by kindred on Jun 30, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There's an incredible amount of intellectual dishonesty that underlies this article.
As bgh notes, Bernie pillories the protectors of the “Fabrege Eggs” and then asks for opinions on minor league players. While I don’t think that is directed at Future Redbirds, there’s an inherent problem in that he’s ridiculing something he later admits to not knowing about.
He twittered the line about nibblers last night and it bothered me then too. Clayton Mortensen isn’t a nibbler in the minors. He has command issues but he throws a heavy sinker repeatedly to get his outs. But, after one inning, the proclomation was made — he’s a nibbler. Mortensen has been promoted quickly, too quickly for my taste, and he’s not quite major league ready but imagining him as Wellemeyer’s equal at this point, isn’t that hard for me. (PJ Walters is a nibbler and I’m still not sure why Boggs doesn’t just start gunslinging his pitches up there as good as they are.)
The other problem is that he starts this article off with praise for DeRosa without noting that another player’s who value he routinely ridiculed (Chris Perez) netted that player. Mark DeRosa is someone Bernie (rightly) lobbied for. Mark DeRosa was acquired because the Cardinals drafted a talented relief arm that made the trade possible. So the argument that the Cardinals are continually overvaluing their prospects (or that the “experts” are) is flawed.
Because Bernie is the big wig at STL PD, he gets a lot of latitude to make flawed arguments and there’s not a lot of accountability for shady arguments or mud slinging quips. It’s great to be cordial with people but I wish that some individuals would be a little blunter and a little less ass kissing about how he portrays the system.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jun 30, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Also
his description of Lance Lynn as a possible “power-arm starting pitcher” who will “go after hitters” is totally disingenuous, given he profiles similarly to our AAA talent and has a whopping 6.28 K/9 this year in AA, which is LESS than what mortensen and walters have done this year at a higher level in AAA, and less than what Boggs has put up in his short MLB career to date.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 1, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's just throwing Lynn's name out there
because he doesn’t know what type of pitcher he is. Not because he actually thinks he’s a power arm.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jul 1, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie isn't stupid...
It is just that the guy has to write something 300+ days a year. Disagree with what he writes, if you’d like, but don’t attack the man.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
by Zubin on Jun 30, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
where did he attack the man? the whole article disparages his opinions, but it doesn't seem
to attack him personally. he could have written “bernie you’re a big stupid oaf” but he didn’t. he went through his article and showed you WHY it’s stupid. he didn’t TELL you that bernie’s stupid.
you drew that conclusion because he did a good (if somewhat inflammatory) job of showing why it’s stupid.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 30, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As opposed to ...
Bernie calling anyone that disagrees with him regarding Dunkin’ , TLR or Dave Duncan: Haters, Bashers, mindless fools?
Of all the P-D sportswriters, Bernie is the most incendiary when it comes to addressing the ‘opposition’. You can’t really fault people for giving what they are getting from the man. Were he to turn down the smug superiority, then one could engage with the guy.
It doesn’t seem that having to pump something out 250+ times a season is that big a worry for him. Since he doesn’t seem to care about consistency, self-contradiction and just being flat-out wrong, he can just fill the pages with stream of consiousness.
I mean, really, June 19th Ludwick, Ankiel need to step up; and, June 25th Carpenter needs some runs. This is hard-hitting journalism? How about asking, in a post-game session with TLR, “How come you couldn’t flip Shu and DeRosa, 2B and LF, on Monday, improve the defense?”
by chenequa on Jul 1, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't mean he's stupid, but ...
if the man mails it in on a few of those 300+ days a year then he should be called on it. His entire job centers around the accountability of managers, players, owners, GMs, etc. for every decision, play, AB, etc. Consequently, it is completely fair to take umbrage with any of his articles. Specifically, when he writes an article that is not just criticizing a point of view that is based more on facts than the one he is presenting, but is also demeaning any who would believe in it.
There were plenty of points that he could have made regarding how this move would have improved the offensive output of this team (assuming he didn’t get hurt in his first week of play for us), but that wasn’t the tact that he took. Instead, he decides to criticize those that take issue with DeRosa being defined as an “impact bat,” whatever that means to those who use it. He attempts to define what “impact bat” means by making absurd player comparisons based on a small sample size and a single, subjective statistic. He doesn’t even effectively define the value that is inherent in that statistic, nor does he acknowledge it’s short-comings. Those short-comings are the reason that so many other statistics that have been created to try to better qualitatively analyze the abilities of players.
Mr. Miklasz seems to be lost in between the two worlds. He picks certain statistics to canonize, and then claims to be a statistics junkie. He praises Bill James, but then doesn’t seem to value his analysis if it conflicts with what he wants to say. He routinely waffles on his points of view about players and the organization. Which would all be somewhat acceptable, if it weren’t for the smug arrogance with which he approaches opposing opinions.
by etp_stl on Jul 12, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good read
nice mix of facts, sarcasm and anger. makes for a good read
by prophetjohn on Jun 30, 2009 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Some damn good fanposts lately
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 30, 2009 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Welley's elbow still an issue?
Further delving into Wellemeyer’s morass, it should be noted that his good slider is being thrown 6 percent less as a share of his overall pitch count than last year and his changeup has been horrendous this season (4.6 above average value last season; -12.7 value below average this season).
Anybody else think this is the case? His velocity is also down from last year.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
by gocards62 on Jul 1, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty Nice Post, but
watch the typos.
“it is name-calling born out of complete ignorants.”
When you are insulting someone’s intelligence, and then misspell “ignorance,” it kind of undercuts the argument of your superior intelligence. You wrote a zillion words, and it was generally clean, but it was a bad place for a typo.
by tarakas on Jul 1, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
True, it was a bad time for a typo, but ...
he wasn’t challenging his intelligence. He was challenging his knowledge. There is a difference there, and only one is truly an insult.
by etp_stl on Jul 12, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there anything down below that suggests the Cardinals are well on the way to developing a power-arm starting pitcher?
the way this line is written, it makes it seem like they have a magical plan to teach these guys how to throw harder.
Furthermore, what does it matter if they did have a power pitcher? Dave Duncan would try to teach him a slider, thus messing with his mechanics and causing him to lose 4 mph off his fastball. Or, like Wellemeyer, teach him to slow things down so that he can find more command…of which he really never finds.
Then Yadi will ask them to nibble anyways.
It’s gotta be tough coming up with stuff to write everyday and do the radio show. Perhaps this was just a bad day for Bernie.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2009 2:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Power Arms
“the way this line is written, it makes it seem like they have a magical plan to teach these guys how to throw harder.”
This goes to the subject of projectability, which IMO is 90% crap.
In most cases, pitchers are who they are — “they are who we thought they were” — when you draft them.
They don’t tend to pick up 5 MPH in the minor leagues, not even the HS guys.
Offhand, I can’t think of any pitchers who picked up MPH in the minor leagues. All of the cases that I can think of (Koufax, Maddux) involve pitchers backing off a few MPH in order to be effective.
by thepainguy on Jul 5, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie's Retort
Not to me, but to emails he received, some of which, I assume came from members of this very community (but not me, because I only engage Goold after he wrote me back a five- or six-paragraph response to my inquiries about the organization’s valuation of Grudz vs. Renteria back during the Hot Stove of Aught-Five/Six). Here it is:
3. RBIs aren’t an important measuring unit for judging a hitter’s value: I didn’t realize that. When I wrote about DeRosa’s impressive RBI total the other day, I received a few e-mails from perturbed quasi sabermatricians, informing me that RBIs are meaningless. Thanks for that. I guess I’m crazy, but as I watched the Cardinals struggle for one run into the 8th inning on Wednesday, I was thinking that an RBI might be a good idea. I saw them load the bases with two outs in the 8th. The score was tied 1-1. Thurston was up. Now, I know this is an old-fashioned, outdated and total-dinosaur concept that has kept mainstream sportswriting in the dark ages … but I sort of thought it might be beneficial for the Cardinals right there if Thurston delivered a single to drive in a run or two. You know, I pondered the possibilities and thought that maybe an RBI single in that situation – to give the Cardinals a 2-1 or 3-1 lead – might be a more desirable outcome than, say, a strikeout to end the inning. Thurston, indeed, struck out. Perhaps he was also informed that RBIs were not all that important.
(Sarcasm. I’m just kidding. Relax. Thank you.)
I realize that this is a sarcastic paragraph, but it misses the point. Joe Thurston shouldn’t be starting, or batting late in the game. Ever. He’s not a good hitter, no matter which metric you use. Using Bernie’s preferred method of RBIs. He has 19 of those (which is far, far worse than “Impact” Mark DeRosa, who is injured, I’m just taking a shot here and I like Mark DeRosa and am not entirely against the trade, but could be, depending on the PTBNL). I know this was not an option last night, but it’s an interesting comparison. Brendan Ryan has 12 RBIs. Based on Bernie’s logic, we’d want Joe Thurston, who is “hitting” .219/.327/.353 (about the only skill he has is drawing a base-on-balls), at the bat with RISP over someone like Brendan Ryan, who is hitting .293/.333/.389. Thurston has 19 RBIs to Ryan’s 12 RBIs. Clearly, he is better at producing runs than Ryan and is therefore a better hitter, a more impacting hitter. Joe Thurston having 54 PAs with RISP and 96 with men on to Ryan’s 46 PAs with RISP and 66 PAs with men on has nothing to do with their RBI totals, which are entirely reflective of how roster decisions should be made.
Who here would not have preferred DeRosa up instead of Thurston last night? Nobody? That’s what I thought. Why is that? It has nothing to do with RBI totals, but hitting ability. DeRosa, for his career, is a .277/.346/.424/.770 hitter for his career and a .261/.334/.443/.777 hitter this season. Joe Thurston, for his career, is a .221/.311/.340/.651 hitter. This year, which makes up the majority of his PAs, he’s hitting the numbers referenced above. Skills is the key characteristic here and RBIs do not particularly reflect skill.
And before anyone points out Thursty Joe’s .286 BA with RISP. Raul Ibanez is hitting .279 with RISP. Maybe Bernie will write a column about how he’d prefer to have Thurston up instead of Ibanez in that situation. Then again, Ibanez has 59 RBIs, so probably not.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 2, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Bernie might be referring to this:
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=639535&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0
and to this
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=639070
I might get bored sometimes. Thank you though for this. I enjoyed reading this so much that I finally decided to sign up for the site.
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jul 3, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He might be,
but one of the rules of life for me is to never click on links that begin with “www.stltoday.com/forum,” so I will never know…
Welcome to the site. Although, if something I wrote prompted you to join, I’m worried for you in this and other endeavors you might partake upon in life. In all seriousness, though, glad to have you. Don’t be a stranger. The more discussion, the merrier, I believe.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 3, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To Bernie's Credit
I would like to point out that I very much agree with this paragraph of Bernie’s Bytes. I might have included something about Go-Go-Joe’s horrendous baserunning, but, other than that, I think he does a very good job of summing up many a fan’s sentiments on the subject:
2. Joe Thurston? I don’t know what to say. I do not want to be disrespectful in any way. Look, I like the guy. He’s an underdog you want to root for. He’s plugged away, been a grinder, never gave up on the dream, finally stayed in the bigs for more than a cup of java. He’s a terrific person. I don’t forget what he did for the Cardinals in April, filling in (mostly at 3B) on an emergency basis, and batting .278 / .371 / .407 for the month. He contributed to a winning month. And unlike a lot of the STL hitters, Thurston will actually take walk. But here’s the lowdown: since May 6, Thurston is batting .172 / .304 / .276. And he’s made seven errors during that time. On the season, Thurston has made nine outs on the bases, frequently getting nailed on helter-skelter dashes. I can’t fault the dude; Thurston isn’t writing out the lineup card. Thurston is here because Troy Glaus got hurt, and David Freese got hurt, and because Brian Barden went 10 for 69 (.145) and got demoted. But surely the Cardinals can come up with something better than what Thurston has been giving them for the last couple of months. Can Jarrett Hoffpauir play third until Mark DeRosa is ready?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 2, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that .304 in the middle of his slash line is much better than what i expected to see, honestly.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jul 2, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
He’s still walking at a pretty good clip. But, he just appears completely over-matched when he is faced with the attempting to swing and hit the ball.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 2, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that what our concern with Izturis was last year?
Iz2 kept taking walks last year, but when he swung nothing good happened. There is a reason why this is Thurston’s first real shot at the majors. Lord help me, but this guy is not even comparable to what Iz2 or Miles provided last year.
by etp_stl on Jul 12, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
I made a typo. I meant to type “I might have included something more about Go-Go-Joe’s horrendous baserunning.” Something about how he seems to discover a new way to create an out on the bases each week. The horrible nature of his baserunning deserves more, I say!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 2, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll give Bernie credit for this
Granted, he’s talking about something obvious…but hey at least he’s willing to appraise Thurston honestly and not cling to the whole “but he’s scrappy” thing that I’m sure some guys would run towards.
VivaElBirdos...Scoring less, but more frequently since approximately 1903.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 3, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I realize I'm late to this conversation...
… but I have a hard time understanding where all of the contempt for Bernie comes from. He may present uninformed arguments from time to time, but it’s not like we’re dealing with Jeff Gordon articles here.
Actually, I think that Bernie does more good (than bad) in educating the STL baseball community about appropriate analysis. He has a weekly segment with Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus on his radio show and routinely comments, “See? I was wrong; that’s why I like to have Sheehan on the show because he sets me straight.” And when Bernie gives an opinion, he generally spends time backing it up with some type of concrete evidence. It’s not like all of his opinions are shooting from the hip or something.
by AndyB83 on Jul 3, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His radio show might be a bastion of thoughtfulness, but I'll never know.
I don’t listen to talk radio, because it’s, well, talk radio. Plus, I don’t live in St. Louis, so I only have his writings by which to go. If he does have Joe Sheehan on every week, then months ago he should have come to fact-based conclusion that writing a post about how DeRosa is an “impact bat” because of his RBI total relative to other accomplished hitters over the span of three months in 2009 is silliness. This post is an assault on reason and his “faberge egg propagandist” quip is a black mark on him and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch as a newspaper. Bernie is a smart person and that is why he should not stoop to levels such as this post. It should be beneath him. However, he’s shown a propensity for plumbing the depths of the lowest common denominator—seemingly, to feed the frenzy on the forums at the stltoday.com—and it’s a real shame.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 3, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just respectfully disagree...
But I think you are taking Bernie’s argument out of context… Bernie is one of the more reasonable media personalities in STL (in my opinion). My job requires quite a bit of driving so I have had a chance to hear them all. All that I surmised from the article you are referring to is that those individuals who are unsatisfied with the trade for DeRosa are out of line… he is an impact bat… especially in a lineup that has been as anemic as the Cardinals. Of course he isn’t on the same level as some of the other players that Bernie mentions… and of course RBI’s aren’t the tell-all stat for ballplayers’ level of productivity… but DeRosa was likely the best-available player on the trade market at this time. And he will improve the offense.
I just think this thread accuses him of making a bigger statement than he really was. That’s all. And the P-D writers do say silly things every now and then that more astute fans of the game can snicker at… but out of all of the columnists to choose from (Goold aside), I just think that Bernie is kind of a random target because he constantly points readers/listeners to numbers (and not just of the AVG, RBI, Runs, ERA, Wins, Errors variety).
by AndyB83 on Jul 3, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I just think that Bernie is kind of a random target because he constantly points readers/listeners to numbers (and not just of the AVG, RBI, Runs, ERA, Wins, Errors variety).
Show me one instance in which Bernie used numbers other than those.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He uses avanced defensive metrics
all the time to show Duncan isn’t the worst LFer in the world.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jul 4, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just today...
On his radio program, Bernie was referring to FIP and other sabermetric-based stats… Couldn’t hear all of them because I was having a conversation with a client at the time…. but alxfritz is right; he refers to John Dewan’s +/- system all of the time for defensive metrics.
by AndyB83 on Jul 6, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've seen him use VORP a bunch...
… and he uses OPS and WHIP all the time. i know that’s not saying much, but he writes for a large daily with a general audience. if he whips out wOBA in a column it won’t get past the editor. you write to a 6th-grade level, remember?
he uses more stats in his blog posts and on his radio show than he does in his columns, because they are the places he can get away with it.
by kindred on Jul 11, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa will have an impact
And I think the whole “impact bat” pining is a bit like chasing a white unicorn. Bernie very easily could have made an argument about the impact DeRosa will have on our offense that had nothing to do with RBIs. The problem with this column is Bernie disingenuously suggesting DeRosa’s RBIs mean he is as much, or more of, and impact bat as the list of perennial All-Stars he lists. Admitting that he is no Adam Dunn is fine, because even though DeRosa isn’t, he will still help the Cards win. Any time a journalist writes something like this, he should get called out on it. Merely pointing people in the direction of actual metrics by which to gauge player performance doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot when you use your platform on the P-D website to make disingenuous arguments based on a stat that doesn’t really show anything.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 4, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I only chase red unicorns.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jul 4, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly right.
Bernie does use some of the advanced metrics in his arguments at different times, but he is subjective about how he uses them. He could have made an argument here about how DeRosa was the best bat available, and how his bat significantly improves the Cardinals’ lineup. Instead, he decided to contrast irrational objections with hyperbolic comparisons. It is bad argumentation, and it wouldn’t fly in any high school debate class. Thank you, bgh, for calling him out on such a blatant and smug abuse of his position. If his editors won’t call him out when he mails it in, then someone else will have to.
by etp_stl on Jul 12, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hm. The saga of Bernie continues
Bernie can be pretty infuriating. I say this because, like some posters above, I have seen/heard instances where Bernie actually comes across as very reasonable and willing to look at stats other than RBI, Wins, etc. Then he writes something like this. He seems to me to be setting up a straw man (people allegedly complaining about DeRosa’s “impact”) and then knocking down the straw man with some emotionally compelling but very flawed and inaccurate “data”. He may end up convincing his audience, if indeed there are people who complain about DeRosa, but it is very tainted. DeRosa is a valuable guy because he can hit pretty decently, will be an improvement over several anemic offensive alternatives, and can play passable defense at multiple positions. He is not an “Impact Hitter to Protect Pujols ©” and he never was going to be. He just happens to be a very good fit given our needs at the time. Bernie may end up doing some good in defending the DeRosa acquisition (if you assume it was a good move, I’m still trying to decide what I think about it) but he’s furthering the ignorance of his audience by relying on crappy arguments.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "5.7 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Jul 6, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well put
I will add that he does not need to resort to this poor quality of argument to win the debate. There is plenty of other data out there to support the proposition that Mark DeRosa will help the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals win. And maybe make the playoffs. And, as we’ve all learned, anything can happen in October.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 6, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
The needlessness of the article is all the more puzzling and frustrating. It’s easy to point out DeRosa’s real value, and it’s also very easy to point out the folly of adherence to the RBI Standard. Bernie did neither with this article.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "5.7 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Jul 6, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure...
He could have used other statistics… maybe he even should have. Many of us here would have liked to have seen more meaningful data.
But I think we may be missing something if we hold him to the same standards as writers on this blog, baseball prospectus, fangraphs, etc… One of the qualities of being a successful writer/speaker is knowing your audience. Everyone understands an RBI… I doubt the P-D wants Bernie to write about stats that are going to pass right over the heads of most.
by AndyB83 on Jul 6, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Knowing his audience
In this frame, then the blog post was even worse. It didn’t appear in the printed paper, but online only, just like Goold’s Birdland. Knowing the types of people who read sports blogs, one would think he would put together a coherent and meaningful argument as to why DeRosa is a good acquisition, using such stats as batting average and on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, and OPS (which is now a constant on ESPN baseball broadcasts). He doesn’t need to go to wOBA or WAR, although it would be appreciated. I guess I just disagree that the way to address ignorance is by feeding it ignorant writings. Something like this:
Cardinals third baseman in 2009: .212 BA (27th in MLB)/.283 OBP (25th in MLB)/.338 SLG (27th in MLB)/.621 OPS (27th in MLB)/6 HR (22nd in MLB)/28 RBI (if you insist)
Mark DeRosa 2009: .270/.342/.457/.799/13 HR/50 RBI
MLB Average third baseman: .262/.333/.415/.748/9 HR/40 RBI
Average Joe Fan: “Dude, oh my goodness. I don’t know who these anti-DeRosans are, but they are off-base. The Cardinals were getting production at third that was way below average and now they acquired Mark DeRosa who is above average. ‘OPS’ is ‘on-base percentage plus slugging percentage.’ I know that from listening to Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips on Sunday Night Baseball. DeRosa is much better than our third basemen have been. That net improvement could be enough to get us into the playoffs with our pitching and weak division.”
That’s what is so infuriating. One post, he will cite to Dewan’s +/- system, which isn’t exactly something your average fan is butching up on during the offseason. Then, he throws this slop out there about how great DeRosa is because of his RBI total.
Also, no matter how it is spun, suggesting he is as impacting a player as Chase Utley or Carlos Beltran is flat out disingenuous. He knows better and should not be doing that. It doesn’t even pass the smell test. If I ordered lunch and got a sandwich that was the equivalent of his argument, I would send it back because it smelled iffy.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 6, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"If I ordered a sandwich..."
That is an awesome metaphor, if it does indeed qualify as a metaphor.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "5.7 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Jul 6, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
knowing his audience
is different from denigrating those who aren’t part of his “typical” audience. He frequently uses sarcasm in a Murray Chass sort of way to deride those who use sabermetric stats. It’s not the same as “not using those stats” b/c he lashes out at those who do. And by the way, saying that “RBIs aren’t important” is not the same as saying that “RBIs are not an important measuring unit for judging a player’s contribution.” Of course, anyone would have wanted Thurston to get a hit in that situation but that doesn’t mean that Thurston would have necessarily been a better player by getting 2 more RBI there. In fact, if he had gotten 0 or 1 RBI there w/ a single, Thurston’s talent or contribution would have been no less than had he gotten 2. Bernie knows this and yet disingenuously ignores it so that he can lash out at those he doesn’t truly understand. He simply gets his rocks off by using sarcasm to deride others. It’s unprofessional and immature and people here or there for that matter have a right to call him out on it.
by chuckb on Jul 12, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I concede...
… that it would have been really easy to include some of those other basic stats that would have provided a more illuminating depiction of the upgrade that the Cards have in DeRosa. And your point about the article being in blog format is well made.
I enjoyed this discussion… thanks for keeping it diplomatic.
by AndyB83 on Jul 6, 2009 8:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No problem
And I understand from whence you are coming. I always try to keep the discussion diplomatic because I think folks forcing one to flesh out his or her argument is good for the community and the person making the argument. It tests the argument’s strength. I think that is a healthy thing.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 7, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs


















