Addressing the real Problems, current values, and hitting lefties

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 3, 2009 12:34 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

I have heard a lot of chatter about us needing a new 3B and a RH bat. I am not so sure about needing a new 3B but we do need a RH bat. I am going to over a few topics such as what is the current value's of players on our team($$$), their splits, roster management, and what is needed to patch these holes.

I am going to start with the most debated topic and work backwards, 3B.

Our team avg at 3B is .253/.335/.379/.714

The majority split between 2 players

Joe Thurston .255/.363/.387/.750 @ 3B

.268/.380/.441/.821 @ Overall

Brian Barden .253/.315/.434/.749 @ 3B

.237/.294/.398/.692 @ Overall

Defensively Barden is above average while Thurston is below average. Neither though is horrible or great with the glove though.

Now I am going to look at their splits of LH vs RH pitchers. They both have small samples so I will also like at their career splits in the minors also

vs Lefties

Joe Thurston .280/400/.560/.960 in 25 AB's

.290/.345/.383/.728 (minor league)

Brian Barden .225/.279/.400/.679 in 40 AB's

.286/ 359/.446/.805 (minor league)

Vs Righties

Joe Thurston .265/.375/.412/.787 in 102 AB's

.299/.358/.455/.813 (minor league)

Brian Barden .245/.305/.396/.701 in 53 AB's

.289/.347/.438/.785 (minor league)

Barden has the better career numbers but Thurston has been far superior this year. Mostly from his huge power numbers and high walk rate. Now Thurston might come down a little bit but his BB walk rate of 14.8% is what stands out for me above all. Now I will let you all make your decisions on who you think will be the better player going forward I just wanted to provide some facts off the bat.

Now lets look at the team LH vs RH splits

vs Lefties Team .237/.326/.376/.703

Pujols .314/.493/.745/1.238 in 51 AB's

Thurston .280/.400/.560/.960 in 25 AB's

Stavinoha .357/.375/.571/.946 in 14 AB's

.321/385/.435/.820 in Minor's vs Lefties

B. Ryan .282/.383/.410/.793 in 39 AB's

Ludwick .314/.390/.400/.790 in 35 AB's

Molina .250/.367/.350/.717 in 40 AB's

Duncan .245/.286/.396/.682 in 53 AB's

Barden .225/.279/.400/.679 in 40 AB's

Schumaker .294/.351/.324/.675 in 34 AB's

Rasmus .132/.250/.211/.461 in 38 AB's

.275/.371/.455/.826 in Minor's vs Lefties

K. Greene .150/.250/.200/.450 in 40 AB's

Ankiel .148/.207/.185/.392 in 27 AB's

What stands out to me is that none of the Ofer's can hit lefties to save their lives. Ankiel is horrid and Rasmus is not much better. But at least his career minor number's show he doesn't have that large of platoon splits. Overall pretty poor but a couple positives in the IF. Especially Ryan and Thurston.

vs Righties Team .264/.335/.436/.771

Pujols .350/.458/.650/1.108 in 123 AB's

Rasmus .281/.331/.500/.831 in 114 AB's

Duncan .262/.372/.458/.830 in 107 AB's

Schumaker .309/.353/.453/.807 in 139 AB's

Ludwick .221/.284/.512/.796 in 86 AB's

Thurston .265/.375/.412/.787 in 102 AB's

Ankiel .250/.329/.431/.760 in 72 AB's

T. Greene .250/.273/.438/.710 in 32 AB's

Molina .274/.341/.368/.709 in 117 AB's

Barden .245/.305/.96/.701 in 53 AB's

K. Greene .231/.311/.354/.665 in 65 AB's

N. Stavinoha .226/.226/.387/.613 in 31 AB's

B. Ryan .256/.273/.326/.598 in 43 AB's

Much better here. Especially in the OF but now the IF craps out.

Now lets look at how our team rates in actual value so far ($$$)

via i33.photobucket.com

Just ignore the pitchers since this is hitting and fielding only. My god does Khalil Greene suck. Schumaker can't even get to replacement level. Brad Thompson has a better bat than Ankiel. Colby and Ryan more valuable than previously thought due to excellent leather.

Now that we have an idea of the problems lets talk about solutions. First off it has to be Ankiel. If he the fourth best Ofer to hit righties and can't hit lefties what so ever and no long plays CF than what does value he have? None. IMO, he is the biggest dead weight to this team after K Greene. Khalil is gone for now to work out his issues. The same has to be done with Ankiel. If he can't get his stroke back than he has negative value in a corner spot. Second, Schumaker experiment at 2B is just painful to endure but at least he can hit righties. But he doesn't do it at a high enough clip though to justify his poor defense. I think he should be traded for whatever.

Now I am going to throw up some optimal lineups

vs Lefties

Ryan @ SS
Thurston @ 2B
Pujols @ 1B
Ludwick@ RF
Stavinoha@ LF
Molina@ C
Barden@ 3B
Rasmus@ CF
Pitcher

vs Righties

Schumaker@ 2B
Rasmus@ CF
Pujols@ 1B
Duncan@ LF
Ludwick@ RF
Thurston@ 3B
Molina@ C
T. Greene@ SS
Pitcher

Now I think we could add a 3B but we need a RH bat that can hit lefties above everything else. So I am just going to look at the potential 3B's LH split.

Potential 3B vs LH

Mark DeRosa - .347/.407/.612/1.020 in 49 AB's

.312/.386/.489/.875 (2006-2008)

Adrian Beltre - .242/.319/.355/.674 in 62 AB's

.302/.373/.528/.901 (2006-2008)

Miguel Tejada - .362/.388/.553/.941 in 47 AB's

.313/.366/.473/.839 (2006-2008)

Garrett Atkins .214/.274/.286/.560 in 56 AB's

.323/.404/.537/.941 (2006-2008)

Melvin Mora .261/.333/.370/.703 in 46 AB's

.275/.353/.486/.839 (2006-2008)

For me I think the best choice is DeRosa do to his flexibility. Regardless all we really need these guys for is to play against lefties so when giving up prospects you have to take on that consideration. But if you can somehow include Barden, Ankiel, and Schumaker than it is just bonus. I just don't think Barden and Ankiel really have a spot on this team especially if we acquire some one new. Schumaker is still our best leadoff hitter vs Righties. Only if he is the OF though. I am not sure this whole 2B thing is going to work out.

P.S

Sorry about the poor formatting. I hate SB Nation's formatting and hatred of my table making skills.

0 recs | Comment 17 comments

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An intriguing comparison

Joe Thurston:

.268/.380/.441/.821

Troy Glaus ’08:

.270/.372/.483/.856

The problem is that Thurston really doesn’t have HR power and never will (based on his swing and career numbers in the minors). We do need more pop out of a position and can probably get it with the versatile Mark DeRosa who can play left or third very well defensively and mashes LHP.

Also, this is premised on the assumption that Thurston will maintain a 14.8% walk rate. I don’t think that he will. In 2007, in AAA, he walked 8.1% of the time. In 2008, at the same level, he walked at a rate of 6.5%. Don’t get me wrong. I’m thrilled that he is drawing this many walks. However, being pleased with a development and believing that it will continue over the remaining months of the season are two different things.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 3, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the real problem is that glaus is a good defender and had a particularly stellar year with his

glove in 08. his defense was at least half of what made him the huge value he was last year.

thurston is a second baseman playing third.

hey, lets have him play second and put our fourth outfielder back in the outfield and put rick ankiel back on the DL and on a rehab assignment in memphis!

/crazytalk

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Jun 3, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree Thurston power but...

He does have Doubles power with Triple’s speed to make up for it. His walk rate is most likely unmaintainable but as long he keeps it up I don’t want him out of the lineup.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 3, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

are they really so bad

that ‘problems’ is now a proper noun?

by prophetjohn on Jun 3, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Now you Know how Serious the Problem really is

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff,

but I’m wondering why your conclusion is that Mark Derosa is our best bet. He does fit into the framework of utility guys and good splits for platooning, but he just doesn’t look like that big an improvement. Brian Barden and Nick Stavinoha can fill DeRosa’s spot pretty competently with good splits against RHers and in Barden’s case, above-average defense at 3B. If you’re replacing Barden at third you’re replacing him with a below-average defender who will look a lot like Joe Thurston out there.

I would love to have DeRosa on the roster instead of Brad Thompson, but he is going to make the infield that much more crowded, coming from a team that is in the hunt and is asking for ML-ready pitching.

Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.

Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

by hazel on Jun 3, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wrong

DeRosa is a ~~good~~great-fielding third baseman. I’m not big into UZR over such a small part of a season, so DeRosa being rated a 3.1 so far this year doesn’t really convince me of much, especially after his 2.1 rating there last season and 4.7 rating there in 2007. This would lead me to believe him to be a good fielder at third base. In left field, he has been good with the glove, as well. DeRosa is an interesting study in the spottiness of UZR and fielding metrics since his is a collection of small sample sizes due to his utility role. Nonetheless, during his time in Chicago-for whatever reason—it seems that he defended well at third and in left (as compared to second, where he has been consistently Schumakevellian.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 3, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, I crossed out my entire comment

Here’s the non-struck version:

DeRosa is a goodgreat-fielding third baseman. I’m not big into UZR over such a small part of a season, so DeRosa being rated a 3.1 so far this year doesn’t really convince me of much, especially after his 2.1 rating there last season and 4.7 rating there in 2007. This would lead me to believe him to be a good fielder at third base. In left field, he has been good with the glove, as well. DeRosa is an interesting study in the spottiness of UZR and fielding metrics since his is a collection of small sample sizes due to his utility role. Nonetheless, during his time in Chicago-for whatever reason—it seems that he defended well at third and in left (as compared to second, where he has been consistently Schumakevellian.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 3, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Number one,

you did not even address the issue of cost. The Indians are in the hunt. What would prompt them to give up a productive player? His salary is low and the Indians are asking for ML ready pitching.

Number two. If by “goodgreat” you mean average, then yes. He was a very, very bad defender at third over a large sample size when he was younger playing for the braves. Over a smaller sample (400 innings) he was very good in chicago. Now he is older and he has been very bad for more than 300 innings in cleveland, nearly equalling the sample size of his entire chicago 3B career. None of these is a particularly large sample but the bad outweighs the good and a 35-year old having a defensive renaissance is not a good bet to make.

And where do you get the idea that he is a good LF by the way? UZR is the only metric that has him well above average in the OF (Chone says dead on average, for instance). So bash away but if you use it to support one sentiment could you be consistent?

Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.

Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

by hazel on Jun 3, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the Indians are in the hunt?

the have on of the worst records in baseball, and have lost Sizemore , Cabrera, Hafner, and Betancourt to the DL. I don’t think they are trending up.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 3, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Their division sucks

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Major League ready pitching"

That can have many meanings. It could be Mitchell Boggs or it could be (but probably isn’t) Brad Thompson. It could also be a relief prospect like Salas. It could be Chris Perez, as well. I don’t think that trading Chris Perez for a four-month rental is the answer. I don’t think that anybody does. But, we are pretty deep on RHed relievers that could probably pitch in another club’s big league bullpen. I think we need to avoid giving a narrow definition to vague terms from MLBTR.

As for playing third defensively, I believe that the field can make a difference. As it did with Edgar Renteria. I don’t know what the difference between the Fenway and Busch II infields was, but it had a dramatic effect on his UZR rating. I suppose I was assuming that Wrigley’s infield plays better than ~~Jacobs’~~ Cleveland’s infield. Looking at the over 400 innings at third base for the Cubs as compared to the 311 innings played in Cleveland gives you two opposite assessments of his talent according to UZR. And his Cleveland numbers are more in line with his career numbers, even if a little bit worse.

As for his good play in LF. I guess I consider average defense to be “good” in LF. Our UZR in LF so far this year is -6.1 for a UZR/150 of -22.9, which is last in all of baseball (for UZR/150). If DeRosa is at -0.7 to 0.7, he stops the bleeding a bit and relieves Duncan of PAs vs. LHP.

DeRosa’s WAR is interesting because Thurston’s is .5 higher due to Go-Go-Joe’s nice OPS. I’d love to dump Skippy and just play the Barden/Thurston platoon at second and then DeRosa at third.

I just read where Baseball Prospectus puts the Indians’ postseason odds at a little over 12%, which isn’t that far below the Twins’ odds. So, I suppose they are still in the hunt. But, with Sizemore’s injury, I don’t know how much of a hit that percentage will take. I’d say they still have a decent shot, especially if Hafner comes back healthy and hits like he was before he re-injured his shoulder. However, they do have Andy Marte hitting .323/.535/.512/.867 in AAA. Maybe this is the year he will finally get a full shot in the big leagues.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 4, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent Research

I think that DeRosa may be the target and I think he certainly helps. My problem is that I am never going to be convinced that this team can win with Duncan in LF and Schumaker at 2B. I am also convinced that neither will be traded and that they are going to see the majority of playing time in those two spots. This is one reason that I really like the idea of trading for Holliday because it would almost certainly mean the end of Duncan in LF. Holliday is not going to happen so I would like to see Schumaker moved to LF with Rasmus and Ludwick in the other two spots, but that is not going to happen either!

by Warcard on Jun 3, 2009 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2 things from tonight:

1st, why is Ankiel playing over Rasmus tonight? MAYBE if we were facing a lefty, but even then I would almost rather see Stavinoha out there. Super-smart-knowing-2.5-hours-in-advance-we-need-a pinch hitter?

2nd, from MLeach: TLR on staying with 13 pitchers: “Playing a player short has been good for us. There’s been a minimum of [undesirable] innings pitched by relievers.”

I just don’t get it..

http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/wednesday_evening_tidbits.html for the rest of his Wednesday tidbits.

by leefyg on Jun 3, 2009 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A couple things about this

1st. Can we please stop with the Chris Duncan as centerpiece of trade talk? He’s the definition of average at best. His hitting isn’t great and his defense isn’t good in the outfield. “He needs to play 1st for another team” everybody says. If you factor in the positional adjustment, he’s worth nothing at first base. Not going to happen in the near future.

2nd, we don’t need to add another average bat like DeRosa to our lineup of average hitters. If we are going to make a run, we need someone who can produce in the 4th-5th spots in our lineup. If DeRosa is batting there, we still don’t have a dangerous lineup (maybe, just maybe, against lefties [maybe]). If we are going to add a bat (which we should), it has to be a impact one (Holliday, Tejada, Huff come to mind as reasonable options). Right now, JOE THURSTON is the second most productive hitter on our team. Even if he’s the fourth, it means we need some serious help.

by thp0344 on Jun 4, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs