Fixing the Defense
by TheBirds on Jun 2, 2009 9:57 AM EDT
20 comments
Hopefully you can read this and it makes sense, since I kind of wrote this in fragments. Also, I hope this seems worthy of a fanpost, as this is about as well thought out as it gets for me.
Things have gotten a little crazy with the defense lately. You've got a few solid role players playing out of position and at least to me it seems like it is too much to handle for them. I tried examining the effects of a simple rearrangement of all the cogs so that everyone was in a natural position and based on UZR/150 it appears this move is worthwhile. Since TLR really doesn't have a stable lineup, I tried to compare the defensive alignment I would most like to see compared with the defensive alignment we most see currently. To the right of a players name is the UZR/150, or the number of runs below or above the average fielder at the position per 150 games (fixed). I've only shown it if the player is moving somewhere different.
My Ideal
1B Albert
2B Thurston 4.2
SS Ryan*
3B Barden 21.8
C Molina
Current
1B Albert
2B Skip -29.3
SS Ryan
3B Thurston -9.4
C Molina
Obviously isn't going to be the perfect for explaining the current defensive situation, but at a net difference of 67.4 runs if these 2 infields were to play a complete season even with a great margin of error this seems pretty telling to me. So is this worth the loss of Skip's bat in the IF with a gain of Barden's? Well, I'd say so by a mile. But really, this should be great evidence for a trade for a good player at 3rd. If you do this, suddenly all the pieces of the IF come into place, offensively and defensively.
As you can see, the two things that stand out most are the Skip is a butcher at second and Barden is pretty good at third base. It's a little early to really determine this conclusively based on UZR, but it does make quite a bit of sense. A guy who, for all his highly touted defense, really isn't that great of an outfielder isn't going to make a good converted second baseman. Also, a guy who has experience at third but is nimble enough to play the MIF is probably going to be a pretty good third baseman.
I also feel for Thurston, the guy actually would be having a pretty decent year by a second baseman's standards, but he's really underachieving at third. Beyond UZR, he almost kills Albert every time he starts there. This is less about Thurston at 3rd and more about him being a pretty good replacement for Skip that is currently displaced. He has a decent bat, would you believe he's got a line of .258/.370/.435! in spite of many thinking he's having a terrible year. Maybe I should lay off the guy. His main problem is he is redundant as a lefty 2B, so why not fix this problem and the defense.
Basically, I advocate trading for a solid player at third, but at the very least make the move of putting everyone where they are able to be. It's disappointing to pull the plug on the Skip to second experiment, but I just don't think it's going to bear much fruit and I am starting to see why it isn't done that often.
One thing that is really confusing is the ERA of the staff has been very good, below their FIP when after everything I've seen I would have guessed it would have been higher.
* Would rather see T. Greene but that is a different issue.
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Not sure yet what I think about the idea
But I have to admit that Thurston had been a better hitter so far than I thought or expected. I don’t know what much we should expect from him going forward, I’ll leave that up to more savvy people. I just don’t want him playing third if we can help it.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 2, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's my defensive pipe dream...
- Trade for Beltre (14 UZR/150), Derosa (22 last season, -12 this season, so we’ll say +10), or Jhonny Peralta (who would take more to acquire) who all have great gloves at 3B and hit left handed pitching well for their careers.
- Platoon Ryan, who’s actually hitting better than Thurston over the last month, with Thurston at second base where he’s a +5 to +10 defender.
- Put Tyler Greene at SS, who’s a +15 glove there and who hit fairly well in his stint with the Cardinals.
- Trade Duncan and Ankiel for 3B options (preferably Peralta) or a starting pitcher and maybe another prospect, move Skippy into a platoon in LF where he’s a great defender, with someone like Robinson or John Jay. Or trade Schumaker and platoon Duncan out there. Defensively though, Skip would be much better.
Lineup looks like this defensively (all numbers UZR/150):
1B – Pujols = 6.5
2B – Ryan/Thurston = +8/4 = 5 on avg as Thurston would play more
SS – Greene/Ryan = +15/15 = 15
3B – Beltre/Derosa/Peralta = +15/10/+8 = +11
LF – Skip/Robinson/Jay = +15 estimate, could be +20 actually
CF – Rasmus = +15 to +20
RF – Ludwick = +8
C- Molina = Best damn catcher in the game
That’s a sick defense and our offense would look like this:
- Skip/Robinson/Jay
- Rasmus (preferably, or Ryan/Thurston if they are hitting better and getting on base)
- Pujols
- Ludwick
- Beltre/Derosa/Peralta
- Tyler Greene
- Molina
- Pitcher
- Ryan/Thurston
That’s a hell of a lot better lineup than what we have now. If Duncan/Ankiel/prospects could bring us a 3B like Peralta then I think our lineup is actually much better than it is right now. If K. Greene comes back and starts hitting well he could replace T. Greene. This would also clear up some of our issues with the 40 man roster crunch this upcoming offseason.
Thoughts?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 2, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i really like the idea of thurston starting at second.
i’d rather see us trade skip or use him as a bench OF. i’m guessing thurston will even out at a .750 ops or so — unless skip’s really going to hit well over .800 for ops for the whole season, i’d suspect thurston’s better defense means he makes more sense there.
i also really like the idea of tyler as an every day ss, with ryan as 2b platoon/ss backup.
one thing that does get neglected in this discussion on 3b is that Barden is, on the whole, a quite good 3b defensively. i think his hitting will come back from being down the current well he’s in. Barden’s BABIP for May — .146. it does seem somewhat a function of luck. he’s had a lot of line drives hit right at people this month. he has a lot of hard-hit balls.
now, he could still be an excellent reserve infielder to a 3b with a better bat; i do think we need to value him carefully and make sure we’re talking about getting a truly better 3b in any trade. based on his minor league defensive stats and his current defensive stats, he’s probably a better defender than peralta and about even with derosa.
isn’t jon jay left-handed?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 2, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn’t jon jay left-handed?
Yup.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 2, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, my mistake
I wrote that post three different times and I had us trading Skip in one of them so I got all confused about the platoons.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 2, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
67 runs saved?
That would be the equivelant of adding an all-star bat to the lineup. Without making a trade.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 2, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you know Sleepy?
it really is
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 2, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Okay
To the right of a players name is the UZR/150, or the number of runs below or above the average fielder at the position.
No, no, no, no, no. UZR/150 is basically how many runs a player would save in 150 games, given his current pace this year. Do you really not see the problem with using that as a projection? You are basically taking what these players have done in a very small sample size (in the case of Barden at third and Thurston at second it is minuscule) and using that as an estimate of their true talent level. You can’t do that.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 2, 2009 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True
That said, I think Skip has pretty well demonstrated he’s a terrible 2B (not his fault, he was moved to the OF in college for a reason. And we’re seeing it).. And Thurston isn’t a very good 3B, mostly his arm.
Even if Barden is really average at 3b and Thurston at 2b (which is a reasonable assumption), it will improve the defense dramatically.
by DiscoJer on Jun 2, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I realize that and said there would be a great margin or error.
But you can’t really use regular UZR.
To be fair I am using the career rates not just this year, which for most of these guys doen’t mean a whole lot.
Still, you don’t think it means anything that if these guys played at their usual level of defense so far, however limited the sample size may be, there is such a stark difference.
It could be much less than 67 runs, but hell I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s reasonably close to that. The things Skip is bad at just don’t seem to be a quick fix.
Also most of the arguement was made without the use of a statistic since I really couldn’t find any satisfactory way to doing it that way.
by TheBirds on Jun 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would use CHONE's preseason defensive projections as they are made from a much larger sample size of minor league fielding data
by vivaelpujols on Jun 2, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stinks that they don't project Skip at second, but how could they.
I didn’t know they projected defense, probably should have. This would have been useful.
by TheBirds on Jun 2, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really hard to draw many conclusions based on this
Well, aside from Thurston being below average rather than average and Barden not being the second coming of Rolen.
by TheBirds on Jun 2, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair to Thursty
-6 runs over the season at 2B is just about as close as you can get (given the large error that will inevitably be associated with minor league play-by-play/zone rating data) to average without actually being average. I don’t think it’d be a huge surprise if his glove (based on what we’ve seen so far – i.e. good athleticism, OK range, decent reactions, so-so glovework) is somewhere in the region of average at 2B.
Barden’s minor league numbers, major league play so far, AND the chone projection all seem to point to the conclusion that his defence is good-to-excellent at 3B.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 3, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forget the numbers for a second.
We have been watching this team all year and what does your gut tell you? Well, it tells me that Thruston is a 2Ber than Skip, and Barden is a better 3Ber than Thurston.
So what would it hurt to try this line up for a couple of nights? Give Barden chance to snap out of his slump.
LF Skip
2B Thurston
Sir Albert
RF Ludstick
C Molina
CF Rasmus
3B Barden
Pitcher
SS Ryan
I like Thurston in the 2 hole becuase on is OBP and speed, and Rasmus further down the order becuase it is nice to have a little power lower in the line up. It would be nice if Barden picked it up a little. If not we make a move.
I have been in favor of a Beltre trade since I first mentioned back on May 18th, but why not try this? Like “TheBirds” says put them in their “natural postions” and let them play.
by nybirdfan on Jun 3, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fixing the Defense Must Also Fix The Offense
I agree that moving Schumaker to LF and Thurston to 2B are good options. I also like T.Greene at SS but the problem is that this offense still has big problems. They obviously need to trade for a quality 3B who can help the offense but I don’t see anyone doing that. Beltre is hitting in the 220’s and DeRosa is hitting 261 and Atkins is off the chart. The guy that has really heated up is Holliday who is now pushing .280 after a 3 hit game last night. I think he is the best guy available.
They may not get Holliday but I think they will look for the best guy available from an offensive perspective and then fill-in defensively.
by Warcard on Jun 3, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
…hot… stove…. holliday…, no…….. can’t…… no more…… holliday…… no….. trade rumours….. please….. no…….
/
……GaaaghhhhhhHhhHhh…………………. I’m MeLtInGGGGGGGgggggggggg………
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 3, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
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