Overmatched!
Cliff Lee dominated our feeble offense all night long. The only real question was not "Would the Cards be able to come back and win the game?" but rather "Would the Cards manage to break up Lee’s no-hitter?" We finally did when Molina’s fly ball to right fell into exactly the right spot – about 6 inches from Choo’s glove and 6 inches fair – but we never really threatened Lee after that 1st inning, 2 walk rally.
Lee’s 3 hit shutout took him all of 93 pitches – just over 10 per inning. 14 times Cards’ hitters swung at the first pitch last night. Rick Ankiel – overmatched all night – struck out 3 times. There’s no doubt that Lee had everything working all night. 70 of his 93 pitches were strikes but Cards’ hitters helped him out by swinging constantly. After the first inning – when Lee was struggling w/ his command – the Cards only had 8 PAs all night that lasted more than 3 pitches. Pujols had 3 of those 8. Skip Schumaker, our de facto leadoff hitter 47 times this season, saw 4 pitches TOTAL all night! Nick Stavihoha, he of the .611 OPS, saw 9 pitches TOTAL in 4 PAs. Of course, 5 of those came in Lee’s shaky first inning. After that, it was 4 pitches in 3 PAs. How he manages to garner any playing time at all is beyond me. He’s going to make a career off of 2 first inning singles!
Carp pitched pretty well himself, save the first inning walk, bad fastball to DeRosa, and spinning cutter he threw to Shoppach in the 5th. It’s unfortunate that he didn’t get to pitch against our hitters or he probably could’ve matched zeroes w/ Lee. Chris Perez had a nice 8th inning; 11 of his 15 pitches were for strikes and he managed to K 2 of the 3 batters he faced.
I have to agree w/ the sentiment expressed by AZ in the overflow thread he posted last night. (Thanks, AZ. I forgot to get one up!) This team is more than 1 hitter away from being a contender. It’s difficult for me to believe this team’s just half a game behind the Brewers. The team’s approach at the plate is horrendous. We’re going to need at least a healthy Glaus and a productive Ryan Ludwick in order to turn this team into a competitor. Skip’s going to have to start walking more frequently and, unfortunately, I don’t see what can be done w/ Ankiel or Duncan to make either a productive hitter. At least Ankiel has some power so we could stomach his .320 or so OBP as long as he manages to hit the occasional homer – if he was batting lower in the order. We’re just never going to score runs w/ 2 .320 OBP guys batting in front of Pujols.
I see no point in getting rid of any young player who has a chance to be a productive major leaguer in exchange for a rental like Beltre or DeRosa. We’re much further than a Beltre or DeRosa from being a contender. Moving Khalil Greene to 3B likely isn’t the answer either, though it’s probably worth a shot. We may as well explore every avenue available to us before we start shipping away Mitch Boggs, Brian Anderson, or Jon Jay.
Bill DeWitt says that the team is "in a pretty good position" and that trading for someone like Beltre, DeRosa, or Miguel Tejada (thank God!) isn’t very likely. Being a half game behind the Brewers is encouraging. The state of the offense right now just isn’t. It needs a lot of help – much more than 1 of those decent hitters can provide. In order to be competitive, we need more from Ludwick, Ankiel, and Skip and we need Glaus to return and be productive. That’s a lot of pieces that have to fall into place. If we’re able to get 3 of the 4, maybe then we can talk about the additional piece we need to acquire. But we can’t acquire 4 hitters and we’re not getting anywhere w/o some of those guys getting it together.
No game today. Hopefully the off day is all we need to get Ankiel’s power back, Ludwick fixed, and everyone else’s plate approach improved! The 1st place Tigers loom!
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315 comments
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Comments
The good news is we're still only a half game out
Even as poor as our approach at the plate has been, we’re still right in the thick of the race. If our brilliant, hall of fame manager can somehow decide that the team needs to be more patient at the plate, maybe, just maybe we can come out of this funk. Remember what we were doing in April? Do it again!
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Take a little league approach
I remember in little league that coaches would tell hitters to “take ’til you get a strike.” Outside of Pujols (who can do whatever he wants, and takes the 1st pitch a lot anyway), we should take until we get a strike.
Other little league coach advice we should follow:
“Don’t be afraid of the ball”
“Quit steppin’ in the bucket”
“Get a little bingo now, little bingo” (probably specific to West End Khoury League ball in Belleville)."
I know whom to call for a hole in my roof or a whole new roof.
by lightbulb on Jun 15, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had a little bingo
growing up in Quincy, IL
by goodymobb on Jun 15, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
other good news
is that Ludwick, Ank, and perhaps even Dunc will get better at hitting. not sure what to make of Khalil at third though. could work if he starts hitting too. also another thing that is encouraging is that when Lohse got hurt, Brad Thompson has stepped it up big time as a replacement (maybe him and Boggs should replace Pinata and Colonel)
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't understand
what would make anyone think that Ankiel is going to hit better? His track record (if looking at his entire mlb career) doesn’t exactly instill confidence that he can overcome adversity. And even if you’re talking about just his career as a hitter, well that’s not much more comforting.
I’d like to think if Ludwick stayed healthy (something that’s been a challenge for him) he will hit. He has a track record of being a very good hitter at every level he’s played at. But, I just don’t have the same confidence in Ankiel, or Duncan for that matter but I think Duncan may just be broken down although if memory serves me correctly, he kinda started hitting late in his minor league career.
Honestly, I don’t think there’s much to be encouraged by.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jun 15, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just saying that he is below his career numbers in slugging and iso
he’s right around his career batting average, but has a high babip. not saying that his power will return for certain, but there’s a good chance that he will hit more home runs than he has, which is his best offensive trait. definitely not thinking that he will raise his average much.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the reason we can be hopeful on Ank...
is that we’ve seen him hit well in the past. You talk about track record, but he basically doesn’t have one. Maybe we’re grasping, but what else can we do. We’re stuck with him, and he’s currently our third best OF option.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jun 15, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do you suddenly gain the ability to swing & connect at the pitches one should?
instead of closing your eyes & swinging wildly at junk low & away, and high heat? unless he starts studding & emulating Albert, i just don’t see him doing that. he’s going to continue to walk to the plate & swing with all his might at nearly every damn pitch that’s thrown at him. come hell or high water he’s going to close his eyes & swing, swing, swing baby. if were lucky, he’ll get to 25 HR’s like he did last year. but since when have those bastard coated bastards with bastard filling GOB’s ever let the Cards have some good luck without paying dearly for it?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question is
how do we get these guys to be more patient at the plate?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
shock collars
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jun 15, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
nice
heh
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
make them carry Albert's things
He’s carrying them on the field anyway.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
last night's plate discipline
I thought about this a lot during the game last night. In this case I think the plate discipline was not the problem.
I absolutely agree that the general rule is to try to make pitchers work and throw more ptiches. You have a better chance of getting a mistake. You also have a better chance of a walk, which is as good as a single. However, when a pitcher like Lee is going, I think it is legitimate to adjust. Lee has good stuff, and he has great control. He is the type of pitcher that is going to give you very little to hit. He is also going to try and get ahead in the count (I’m sure we are all familiar with the statistical advantage to the pitcher of early strikes). Once you fall behind Lee, you are greatly disabled. He is sort of like Bricktop: once you fall behind, you are in his debt, and once you’re in his debt, you’re in his pocket. LaRussa encourages his hitters to attack a good pitch to hit. In this game, it is likely that the best pitch you see is the early stike (this was essentially the discussion on the broadcast with Carp on the mound. The Tribe jumped all over his fpfb and it seemed like when he adjusted, he thwarted them with his usual aplomb.)
Without reviewing the game tape, I can not tell you how many times our hitters went after early pitches that ended up being less than inviting (at least after review). However, I do think that the game plan of attacking an early pitch is as good as falling behind Lee and hitting defensively.
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except if you read the initial post of this thread you would be less in the dark.
14 times our hitters swung at the first pitch. None of those went for home runs or extra bases, so it seems unlikely that that was the “good pitch to hit” for any of them.
Also, Lee does has good command, but he not have good command last night. He walked two players in the first inning, and several of his called strikes were absolute gifts, well outside the zone to the top or away. Working counts a bit more could have exploited this fact, and the more pitches an umpire sees, the more consistent he can be.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jun 15, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Hazel
I think it is a bad choice to say that because none of the first pitches went for home runs or extra bases that they were not good pitches to hit. It may be true. It may also be a case where the hitters missed a good pitch, or mis-took a bad pitch for a good pitch.
I would also argue that he DID have good command. Whether a called strike is an “absolute gift” or not, it is still a strike. (the pitch I think of is a K from later in the game, when the announcers praised the pitch heavily until it was shown to be well outside, then they said Lee earned it! I think Ryan or Green had struck out.) I believe he still through 70 of 93 (75%) for strikes.
I would really like to see our swings at balls out of the zone last night. I think it would be pertinent to this discussion.
Anyway, Hazel, I think that you should judge the plan, not the execution. I stand by the point that the plan was probably good. Did the hitters execute it well? Have they executed very much of anything well lately? Is it a bad plan if they do not execute well?
Suppose they had all seen several pitches, had to battle 0-2, 1-2 all night, and we still didn’t score. Would you then be arguing that we should have been more aggressive? it seems like you would.
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
going 0-14 on first pitches is pretty good evidence that there were at least some
bad pitches sprinkled in there.
pro baseball players should not miss 14 hittable pitches.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I completely agree. I think our hitters go after bad pitches often.
It is, however, beside the initial point that the strategy of being aggressive with the first good pitch you see is a good one against Lee. Just because our hitters were routinely fooled doesn’t make it a bad strategy. Is tony supposed to assume that our hitters can’t tell a good pitch from a bad one? I don’t think tony told them to swing at the first pitch no matter what. I would better money he did not.
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see anything
wrong with making Cliff Lee throw over 100 pitches, especially since he’s thrown well over 100 several times this season. The man stretched a bullpen session into a complete game because of the plan and the poor execution.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 15, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
again, it is a good idea
Do you think that when Carp throws a very efficient game it is because the hitters he faces have bad plans or all fail to execute or do you think that he mows them down?
Say you take a strike or two, and you are battling from behind, are you in that much better a position? Would you necessarily get more balls (%wise) and walks if you took a strike or two?
Even counting the 1st, Lee already threw 75% strikes. That means 2-9 he was throwing more than 75% strikes, likely at least.
It is really easy to say that we could be more patient and make him throw, what 110, pitches? Would that have made the difference?
I think Lee threw a good game. I was more satisfied being shut down last night than I was against Ohka.
Really, I wish our hitters would just hit better! I would like to see more walks, but I don’t think last night was when it was going to happen. I know they sometimes seem over-aggressive, but that does not mean being aggressive is bad.
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when your team has the third worst BB rate in the majors in June
and the eighth worst in May, it sure is bad to be “aggressive”.
in june, we are swinging at the third most pitches out of the zone in the majors. in may, we swung at the fifth most pitches out of the zone.
i fail to see how you can say that being “aggressive” isn’t hurting us.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it is semantics
I would say that is over-aggressive or poor pitch recognition. Poor understanding of the strike zone, pitch recognition and what a good pitch is reflects on the quality of our hitters, not on the plan.
If you say be aggressive with a good pitch, then you are trusting your players to recognize what a good pitch is.
Now, against Tomo Ohka I agree that you can tell your players to take some pitches. Against Lee, I think you have to stay aggressive. If our hitters are going to chase on the first pitch, what do you think they will do on 1-2?
Now, I think you and I and likely anyone reading this will agree that the birds’ pitch recognition is terrible right now and their judgment dubious. To me, that reflects on the hitters. Is the manager at the major league level supposed to teach them the difference between a good pitch and a bad pitch?! I could be wrong, but I thought that you had to know that much by this point. Isn’t that why minor league walk rates and swing rates are valuable?
Being aggressive is not what is hurting us. Being aggressive in sports is almost always good. Having bad judgment is killing us though. Having bad judgment almost always kills you in sports. Should you stop being aggressive or should you try to find a way to improve judgment? Wouldn’t you rather have an aggressive player with bad judgment than a passive player with bad judgment?
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what's more likely: that the professional ball players on the team
have suddenly forgotten what a good pitch looks like? or that the players have decided — independently or in response to managerial encouragement — that they should be more “aggressive” at the plate?
I don’t understand how someone’s pitch recognition gets worse with time, in the absence of a vision problem. i do understand that taking a different approach at the plate, deciding to swing at more borderline pitches, etc. can cause exactly what we’re seeing. when i see that happen team-wide, i look for a team-wide behavioral explanation.
unless we have a team-wide case of myopia. eye exams for everybody!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps I can save you money on eye exams
The issue boils down to: are the cardinals poorly skilled at pitch recognition and judgment OR are they operating under a coach or manger’s directive to swing early and often. That is a little slanted. Let’s say a managerial imperative to attack the first strike you see against Cliff Lee instead.
Here is the lineup.
Ryan
Ankiel
Pujols
Ludwick
stavinoha
molina
rasmus
greene
schumaker
How would you rank the pitch recognition and judgment of Ryan, Ankiel, Stav, molina and greene as a whole? I would say, not well. Ryan is already known for swinging at 1st pitches. Ank does not like to walk and loves to leave the zone. Stavinoha has not impressed me with his ability. Molina is great at not striking out, but i don’t think he is at all above average at these skills. Schumaker is, as previously noted, struggling somewhat this year with this issues.
That leaves Albert, for whom I have no criticism, Ludwick, who is really struggling but is usually good at recognition and Rasmus whom we all agree has a good eye.
I do not think that diminishing eyesight is the problem. I don’t think that the coaching staff is happy with what they see. I think that the team has a lot of free swingers. can you make a free swinger a patient hitter? I don’t know. Things do get better a little, I guess, with duncan playing since he is pretty patient as a whole. However, i aways feel that he expands the zone. Glaus would help out because that guy is very patient. However, I don’t see much improvement on the way.
This lineup really does not inspire a lot of confidence, and the more I look at it the more amazed I am that I really believe we’re going to make the playoffs. I’m not much of a naysayer and I usually think that our guys are great. However, I would feel much better if this long slump would end.
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the free-swinging nature of our club would be a fine answer, if
it were not that we had an april of excellent plate discipline from more or less the same cast of characters. we had the fifth best walk rate in the majors in april at 11.4% (8.1% in may, 5.1% in june). in april, we had a 24.1% O swing rate (may 26.8%, june 30.7%).
we are swinging at more bad pitches — 20% more in june v. april. we are walking in june at less than half the rate we did in april. make of that whatever you will. to me, it seems like we are too aggressive at the plate.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well I think you are too aggressive at the thread! (not being serious)
I was sticking up for the “aggressive” approach at the plate, but last night’s game kept me quiet. It’s suck a hard argument either way though.
When a batter swings at the first pitch and makes an out, it seems to be extra frustrating, because the pitcher only had to throw one pitch. It seems, however, that there have been numerous occasions where first pitches have been struck really well, but hit right at somebody. Right now it doesn’t appear to matter how many pitches they see per PA, they are either going to hit a weak groundball/fly ball or a line drive right at somebody. The GOB hate the cardinals right now and maybe a sacrifice (fire somebody) is needed?
I guess we, as cardinals fans, know how other teams feel when Joel Pinero goes out there and throws a CG
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
such a hard argument*
freud?
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
then what do YOU think explains it
First, I think that being more aggressive as a hitter with a good early count pitch against Lee than an average pitcher. Against an average pitcher I would preach much more patience. I want to make sure that is clear. Overall I think our hitters are being “too aggressive” in terms of making poor decisions. I just think that is the state of the lineup right now.
Second, as much as I miss April, it could be a statistical aberration that we were so good. Further, we were more disciplined with KG in the lineup. he stunk, but he did take some pitches or at least walk.
Third, I bet that this period is also an aberration, just in the opposite direction. Please, God!
Fourth, the interesting thing is Rasmus. Early on, he appeared more selective but was not hitting as well. Now he appears less selective but is hitting well. I think it points to the importance of sample size. I see Rasmus as a hitter with a good eye being aggressive. If he has a good pitch to put a swing on, then I’d prefer him swinging. I feel confident that he would not be trying to avoid walking, but rather pitchers see no need to walk any on our team. If you were coaching against us, wouldn’t you be irate for walking anyone other than Albert. Heck, I might be irate for doing anything other than walking Albert, even.
Fifth! I just don’t see why the coaches would change what was working in April. I guess you take the opposite view. I really think that guys press or struggle coming off injuries or slumps.
6th and thankfully last. I really think the hard thing with this team is the lack of reliable backgrounds on the players. We do not really know what to expect from guys. Luddy? Ankiel? Duncan? and more. I think that makes us really vulnerable to big swings in the perception of the team’s talent and performance.
BTW, I hope I am not being combative. I just feel like discussing. I also really appreciate your statistical prowess.
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great discussion
here’s some hypotheses- no idea how to prove or dispove them, but it’s my anecdotal recollection of how this season has gone:
Other team’s scouting reports all said that we were a bunch of free-swingers at the start of the season. We started the season not swinging freely, causing us some success, in part because pitchers were a little rusty to start the season and in part because we avoided the aces for most of the first month. So we walked a lot and consequently scored a lot of runs.
Other teams adjusted and started pounding the strike zone, forcing us to have to hit our way out of it, which we haven’t been able to do yet, in large part because the GOB are a bunch of ************.
There’s a lot of game theory involved in baseball; you can’t just always take the first pitch, and you can’t always swing at the first pitch, even if it is grooved. And you have to be able to hit to be able to walk; right now, no one on the team poses any offensive threat except for albert.
Wonder what our rate of foul balls per PA is, right now? Seems we’re not doing much of that.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1) being aggressive can be good. swinging at bad pitches is not. right now, we are swinging at bad pitches (per our O-Swing stats).
2) line drives sometimes become outs, sometimes doubles. that’s a common source of statistical aberration. a swing stat is NOT a statistical aberration (unless we’re talking less than 50 PA’s). whether a batter swings or not is not a function of luck — it’s a conscious decision. saying that a 20% increase in O swing rate is a “statistical aberration” is not justifiable.
3) this period of bad hitting can be reversed — but not by waiting for regression to a mean. batters have to decide not to swing at bad pitches.
4) rasmus (and i think duncan) vastly expanded their zone in may and june, trying to force hits to make up for the absence of ludwick and ankiel, and the general poor hitting. this ended up hurting their stats.
5) i don’t know why he chose to mess with a good thing, but i do know that tony told the team to be more agressive at the end of april and that corresponded with the rise of poor plate discipline.
6) it is hard to project players on this year’s squad. to some extent, that’s part of every team, every year. this year’s team is particularly hard in that we have more rookies than anybody, and the non-rookie position players we have are in flux offensively, for reasons of recent injury (ludwick, ankiel, duncan, k. greene). pujols and molina are really the most stable forces on the team.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
If you knew that Tony told them to be more aggressive, then you should have said so.
That is a bit of a game changer!
TED
by TeddyRugby on Jun 15, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He said it shortly after April
he didn’t like that the team was taking too many pitches and he wanted them to be more aggressive in the strikezone. He said the same last August.
Dan and Al pointed it out before one game.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TLR Quote
Here is the quote from Tony after the 2-1 loss to Alt on April 28th
“I didn’t think we were as aggressive as we usually are on pitches that we had to hit. So you sit around on a one-run lead and put yourself in a position for that to happen. We didn’t look like quite ourselves for whatever reason.”
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There really hasn't been much
difference in the amount of first-pitch strikes this year’s team has seen in comparison to last years. The 2008 team actually saw about 1.3 more first pitch strikes per game. Both teams put a nearly identical number of first pitches in play per game.
The difference is that the 2008 team hit .337 with a .297 BABIP on first pitch swings while this year’s version is only hitting .286 with a .246 BABIP. Let’s see, .051 points of difference in BA and .051 points of difference in BABIP. [Insert favorite view of BABIP here.]
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jun 15, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, that doesn't address the issue of
out of zone swings. last year our season-long O-swing rate was 25.2%.
Over the 2009 season, the cards are at 26.5% for o-swing. For may 09 26.8%; june 09 30.7%.
That’s a substantial increase. And it’s not dumb luck.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
A couple of those balls were driven pretty well.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What this team needs
is a powerful Kangaroo court headed by Pujols with the first rule being Ankiel (or anybody else) swinging at shouder high fastball incur a stiff fine.
Thats just for starters. It’s time for these well paid athletes to start answering to each other.
by ridgesee on Jun 15, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like the shock collars idea better
but that’s the kind of thing a Clubhouse Leader would do…
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Put shock collars on his teammates?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Jun 15, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, I'm glad we're about to play the Tigers
Since we never play them in interleague games, I had almost forgotten there was a baseball team in Detroit. How embarrassing! Boy did I luck out. Apparently LaRussa is friends with their manager or something? I wonder why nobody ever mentions this during broadcasts. It’s a good thing the schedules in major league baseball are so balanced.
OK, in all seriousness… Khalil Greene to third didn’t really cause much of a reaction in me when I first heard the news. Nothing is really shocking anymore with this team. But after thinking about it for a while I’m pretty dubious. I mean, I see the reasoning behind it. Wallace has struggled at AAA but since he’s still young they probably weren’t too worried about him struggling there, they see him as having plenty of time to adjust. So clearly they’re not worried about interfering with his development by giving PAs to Greene at third. I guess they believe it’s possible he can hit well enough to make sense there. But at this point I’m not sure it’s worth it. I believe he can field the position well enough, but I also think that the typical “successful” Greene offensive output looks way way better from a SS than a 3B. I can accept the terrible OBP if it’s paired with surprising SLG numbers, especially if it’s our shortstop, who fields well, and doesn’t hit in a prime spot in the order. But we’re gravitating more towards Ryan and Other Greene in the middle infield, and Skip hasn’t exactly impressed with the bat this year. So putting Khalil at third is basically relying even more on our outfield and Albert for offense. Albert has become almost a universal constant, like taxes or entropy. But our outfield has not exactly been the powerhouse so far we expected or hoped.
I guess the short version of my opinion on Greene is: if everything else that is going wrong with this team starts also getting better, than a better hitting Greene might work out at 3B. That might be too unrealistic for me right now.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Um, why not Allen Craig at third?
But, I digress…
My hope is that we can somehow package Skip Schumaker, Brad Thompson and PJ Walters for a stop-gap third base filler. I recognize that this will never happen, but a man can hope and dream, can’t?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought about Allen Craig myself
Looked him up on minorleaguesplits.com. He’s not doing too hot at the moment offensively. AVG/OBP/SLG for the year is .262/.320/.389, OPS of .709. Now, for the last 28 days he looks better at .278/.333/.433/.766, but apparently he’s had a rough go very recently with downright bad #s for the last week and the last two weeks. Linky.
According to that site’s “luck” adjustment (no idea how they calculate it) he has been kind of unlucky though. Also looks better overall when neutralized for park.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if you adjust for Park
He looks downright sexy.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and then you click MLE's
and you want to cry.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt he could be any worst than Stav
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fuck
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paragraphs, man.
Paragraphs.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 15, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I too am somewhat underwhelmed by the whole "Greene at 3B" thing
Thing is, I think we’re making the exact same mistake we made in the first month – Barden and Thurston were hitting at 3B then, and it looked like we had our replacement internally. Never mind that their minor league numbers and entire careers before that didn’t support anything like the level of hitting they achieved in April, the organisation just went with the hot hand (sending Freese down before he even had a chance) and now we’ve got a poor-hitting 3B who’s come back to earth but still been broadly OK (Thurston) and a backup middle-infielder who stopped playing and then stopped hitting (Barden).
Now, T Greene and Ryan are doing a fine job at SS but both are poor hitters, and both will ultimately go back to being poor hitters, just like our previously good-hitting tandem at 3B. Their production is just not going to continue at this level all year. IF Khalil finds his head again I think he’s better off as a “plan C” at SS; he, at least, has some pop in his bat so if Tyler and Ryan cool off totally it gives us something different to trot out in the middle infield.
I suppose it’s probably moot as it’s hard to see K-Bot coming back much better this year, even despite his poor prior luck.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
KBot to 3rd reaks of desperation to me
i don’t see how this can end well
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep Schu off the field vs LHP
might be a stretch to try to find something positive.
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and replace him with another leftie?
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RH infield Raz-Ank-Lud outfield
AP-Ryan-TGreene-KGreene
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
I didn’t take the comment fully in it’s context
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of SS shift to 3B later in their career
Khalil was extremely unlucky so far this season. Hardball times has his projected OPS at .778 vs his real OPS at .582.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 2nd Inning
What a horrible inning. It’s almost as if, after the club work two walks and saw 21 pitches in the inning, the batters decided they needed to be more aggressive. So, in the second inning, Yadi swung at the first pitch and grounded out to short. Rasmus then swung at the first pitch and flew out to left. T-Greene took a first-pitch ball and then grounded the second pitch he saw to the third baseman. 4 pitches, 3 outs. And the rest of our PAs last night largely followed the second inning’s pattern of aggressive swings and poor contact.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lee was throwing
nothing but 4 seam fastballs for strikes. I’m not exactly sure what taking a pitch or two would accomplish other than consistently being behind in the count (which they were anyway) all night. The way he was throwing strikes (and getting some border-liners called) his pitch count wouldn’t have been much higher than what it ended up being.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jun 15, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We bailed him out in the second inning after he struggled to throw strikes in the first.
That was the point of my comment. In the first inning, Lee threw 21 pitches, 11 of which were called “balls.” It’s fundamental baseball from Little League on up that if a pitcher is struggling to find the zone, you make him work. In the second inning—the inning following the first inning where he threw a majority of non-strikes—our first two batters saw two pitches combined. Yadier swung at a high fastball that very likely was out of the zone (although the umpire’s high and wide zone certainly did not hurt Lee’s no-hit bid as the evening progressed). Rasmus probably swung at a strike, but he didn’t put a good swing on the pitch he saw either. Greene took a called strike and then chased a pitch six inches off the plate—a horrible PA. I believe that the second inning allowed Lee to get on track after his poor first inning.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus didn't Greene
bunt? That really pissed me off….
That 2nd inning was horrendous.
I also think that given just how completely over-matched LH hitters are as a general rule against LH pitchers (TLR philosophy, not necessarily mine), why wouldn’t you encourage at least your LH batters to take a pitch or two and get a look at the guy before hacking?
by goodymobb on Jun 15, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You and Steve Phillips and Joe Morgan
That’s all they could talk about. How it is bad baseball to bunt with two outs and no one on. What they like is for someone to come up and hit a double.
by OCCardsFan on Jun 15, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So are you more likely to get on base
bunting or not bunting?
by goodymobb on Jun 15, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BABIP on bunts is typically around .400
With two outs, a 40% chance of getting to first base with no possibility to get to second or hit a home run just isn’t that valuable (+0.134 runs if successful, so the value of the attempt was about (0.4*.134) = +.0536 runs).
OTOH if you assume his odds of getting a hit, walk, or xbh are the same as his performance so far this year, his run expectancy swinging away would have been +0.056, so there’s not much difference.
Assuming that he was completely overmatched, bunting would have presumably been a better choice, especially since he has the ability to steal second, but he’s in the lineup because he’s a RHB and thus theoretically is not overmatched…
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BABIP of bunts would include
a ton of sacrifice bunts that don’t go as AB in that situation. Sometimes, players get lucky and get on base in those situations, even if not called an error. I highly doubt that players hit .400 when bunting for hits total.
by stlfan on Jun 15, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He said with two outs.
So that qualifies out all sacrifices successful or otherwise.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jun 15, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the .400 figure is all bunts
regardless of number of outs. I have no idea what the 2 out bunt-for-hit BABIP split is.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, it also includes bunts that don't advance the runner
which are counted as fielder’s choices. I’d bet there are a lot more of those than there are accidental base hits on attempted sacrifices.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't really making an argument
Just pointing out that you are esteemed company with Joe and Steve. I didn’t really have a problem with it though, seeing how poorly the Cards are hitting. It was a pretty pathetic bunt attempt.
by OCCardsFan on Jun 15, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a problem with bunting with 2 down
I do have a problem attempting to bunt a pitch six inches off the plate.
Listening to Steve Phillips last night nearly made my head explode. He has little-to-no idea about that of which he speaks; that is, baseball. What in blue blazes was his problem with bunting with 2 outs? You don’t score on a single? What is more likely, Steve, to reach 1B safely on a bunt, or, to hit a double? To reach 1B safely on a bunt, of course. You can’t score a run for the Cardinals while the Indians are at the bat. You can score a run for the Cardinals from 1B, however, after reaching safely on a bunt.
Furthermore, what was that about kids learning the game in the batting cage instead of on the field? Is he high? My little brother and his friends easily played 100 games a summer of baseball from age 9 through age 14 (combining Little League, All-Stars, USSSA league, and the traveling team). They also hit a lot in the cage. But, how on earth does one reach the conclusion that players today don’t play live games, they merely hit in the cage? Where does he come up with this stuff?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Phillips comment made me crazy too
What is he basing this on? When I was kid we played like 12 little league games a year. Now every kid you meet is on an “elite” traveling team that plays like 30-40 games a year.
I don’t understand why ESPN thinks he is so great. Though I can’t understand why they are fighting with NFL network to see how much time they can put Matt Millen on the air either.
by OCCardsFan on Jun 15, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to hear those two
call agame with Rick Horton. That way all three announcers can take turns saying “he should have hit a double” whenever somebody makes an out.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jun 15, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew it wasn't a good sign when we didn't score in the first inning last night
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Skip making those two amazing defensive plays definitely doesn't help make the case
that Thurston should start at 2B. it makes things more confusing. they probably won’t start Thurston much at second anyway. so Tyler Greene is getting sent down again, right?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish Duncan
would get sent down. The Cardinals are expecting too much from him too soon.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 15, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scratch that.
I wish Stav would get sent down.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 15, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's been attrocious
Just awful. He should not be on the roster. He can’t defend and can’t hit. At all. His worth lies in hitting HRs vs. the I-Cubs. Let him demonstrate that value.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't get how any of you guys liked Stav even for a second
I remember not that long ago all this Stav infection talk. I have always disliked Stav.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
the guy is not a big leaguer
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he and dunc both share that distinction at present
both should be in Memphis. Dunc could come back, but I think the odds are against it and I’m not sure it’ll happen this year. There is no way he’s even average come the end of the year…
Stav is replacement-level and it’s frankly embarassing to have him on the major league roster when there are FREELY AVAILABLE above-average right-handed bats around the league that either cost a non-prospect or a very minor one. Austin Kearns, Brian Giles, Matt Murton, all of these guys could be had for next to nothing and will be worth 2 more wins than trotting ut Stav/Dunc night-in night-out. Not getting one of these guys by now is pathetic and exposes the lack of ambition of this organisation at the moment.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is up with Brian Giles
He has been the black hole of suck so far this season.Fangraphs have him being worth a negative $6.9M so far this season. Easily the worst player in baseball so far this season.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best option at the moment:
It’s a dramatic one. But, they should really send Duncan down to AAA, send Stavinfection down to AAA, shift Skippy to LF (platooning with Craig), and then platoon Go-Go-Joe and Ryan at 2B.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly would be in favor all these moves
This team needs a shakeup back to reality.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lotsa drama in his personal life
including a video made public that seems to indicate he whacked his pregnant ex.
by ol Pete on Jun 15, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't whack her.
He hit her. Which is still awful, but not the same as a mob-hit.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 15, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Stavinoha
But, that’s because I see as many or more Memphis games in a summer as I do St. Louis games. However, there is no confusing that The Infection is merely a AAA threat at the bat and is helpless in The Show.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seriously?
come on man, your smarter than this. thursty is not an every day player. he’s at best a defensive replacement that’s had way to much playing time & is really overexposed. he’s D is awful. don’t you see him trying to get Albert hurt every damn time he throws to 1st?
no thanks. Boog & T. Greene should be our every day MI’s till MO can find some guys who are equally as slick with the gloves, and bring some much needed powar to the table.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In all fairness to Go-Go-Joe, who I've disliked for a while now,...
…his defense at third base is horrible. At second base, he’s pretty good. I submit this proposition: Second Baseman Thurston is more valuable than Second Baseman Schumaker.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how much does Albert saving his piss poor throws go into how his D @ 2nd is calculated?
i agree he’s better at 2nd, but he’s still not as good as Boog or T. Greene. he should not be starting over either one of those guys if D is the deciding factor. he does have more pop in his bat than either one of them has shown up to this point, but that pop isn’t a regular occurrence.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are undervaluing Thurston's D
and Overrating Tyler Greene’s/Ryan’s bat
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
many of his throws are off the mark correct?
how can i be undervaluing that? sure he gets to the ball, but when his throws are off the mark, putting the best player in the game in jeopardy, how good can he really be? that’s all i want to know.
Boog & T. Greene have very little powar & are singles & slap hitters. that’s pretty much it. they are what they are & they are probably not going to get any better.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
greene has fine power
but he’ll have to change his approach (imo) if he wants to have a decent OBP. I could see him hitting 10-15 HR and OPS’ing < .700.
Still think BR >>TG.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 16, 2009 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not optimistic about him changing his approach and getting on base
he was regularly putting up 25-30% K rates in the high minors, from memory. That’s putrid. He IS going to be a bad hitter in the majors, it just depends how good his defence is…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 16, 2009 5:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his defense is not awful at second base
and (unfortunately) he’s been one of our top 5 hitters so far.
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed,
But if I see Thursty swing at one more breaking pitch down and away…….
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ideally the guy would be a bench guy
but he’s not a bad option at second base. I think we can all agree that his defense is better than Skip’s at 2nd, at this point in time (skip may continue to get better though).
batting-wise, Thurston is at .320 wOBA (.299 career). Skip is at .310 wOBA, but his career is much higher than Thurston’s. this season Thurston has the higher OPS, but I suppose Skip’s offensive struggles could be attributed to learning the keystone. which brings the question, is Thurston’s defense that much better than Schu’s to start him there. I think there is a pretty strong argument for it. but then we wouldn’t be able to tell if the conversion experiment worked or not. guess it’s a wash.
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Lineup
I understand Tony’s desire to mix and match (in addition to his loyalty to those that have performed well for him in the past). The productivity of many spare parts over the years is owed to LaRussa’s managing style.
That said, with the offense so enfeebled, I see little reason to keep sticking marginal players and outright non-answers into the lineup (yes I am looking at you Nick Stavihoha) to try and spark something. Players like Ludwick (who started the season well) and Rasmus (who has improved) should be playing everyday. If Tony wants to mix and match, do it with the 3rd outfield spot, but an outfield with Duncan and Ankiel both starting is brutal offensively and deffensively.
by JMedwick on Jun 15, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ot: do the cards ever sell?
i know we are only a game out and in a very winnable division. i’m not advocating selling or giving up on the season. and i also realize we don’t really have anyone save rasmus to sell high on at this point and we definitely shouldn’t do that.
but my impression is that we always seem to think we are one role player and a bit of luck away from making a run at it. is this actual circumstance or something i’m fabricating in my head?
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jun 15, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well
I would say 2007 was the last time in quite a while where it might actually have made sense to start selling. That’s just off the top of my head. And even then, we were tantalizingly close to competing in a very bad division surprisingly late, and there was a wildcard possibility if I’m not mistaken… could be confusing 2007 with 2008 re: wildcard.
I wasn’t following as closely in 2003, so I don’t remember what our chances of competing looked like as the season went on.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats kind of what i was remembering
is it just that the nl central is always so close that no team is ever really all the way out of it?
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jun 15, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We really haven't been...
far enough out of the race in the last decade to be in a place to sell.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Jun 15, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one really to sell
outside of Carpenter and Lohse, everyone else is cheap and/or in a walk year.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your not gonna be sellers if you have pujols on your team
and your farm system is doing pretty well
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cot's contracts new feature
not sure if this has been posted before, but Cot’s Contracts now has a link to 2009-13 payroll obligations. Here is a direct link to the Cards contract summary spreadsheet
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Happy day!
What a wonderful feature!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 15, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this an organizational issue?
I attended two games about a week ago. I was in amazement at the 9 players that were on the field. Barden? Ryan? Stavinoha? Duncan? Schumaker(2B)? Tyler Greene? To me, our lack of offense comes down to…our lack of talent. These players are not “everyday” players in the major leagues. Yes, it’s great to see some of the Cardinal farm hands getting a shot with the big club, but I don’t see this offense turning around with five of them in the line-up on any given night. Chris Duncan showed promise early on, but this is the Major Leagues, teams make adjustments. He is too easy to get out. I feel the same for Ankiel. You can pitch to him, even when he is on a hot streak. He will not consistently burn you. Teams have adjusted to them. The organization has to take a step back and evaluate its talent base more realistically.
"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"
by BleacherBum on Jun 15, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brendan Ryan would like to disagree
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You guys are quitters
You guys are some pathetic mother fuckers with short term memory. Don’t any of you remember 2006!? We sucked something hard during that season. Have we lost 8 games in a row this season? No. You guys sound like band wagon fans ready to throw in the towel when we a little down on our luck. We are a half a game out of first place and you guys are talking about selling off the team cause we don’t have a chance.
Most people achieved their greatest success one step beyond what looked like their greatest failure.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah
this season is reminding me of ’06
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I only give up
when Larussa starts playing Adam Kennedy and Felipe Lopez in the outfield
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is the first sentence really necessary?
"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"
by BleacherBum on Jun 15, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
seemed a little antagonistic, didn't it?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
frequently. yes.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Works better in person
I am the type of person that rarely raises his voice so when he does it carries weight.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
-10
everyone here has the right to their own opinion, whether you agree or not. that type of reply is way out of line.
your perceived “weight”, is sinking fast.
by ball in play on Jun 15, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your weight
never existed. I’ll take Flim’s opinion any day of the week
by stlhulsey on Jun 15, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so in order to lose some weight
all I have to do is piss people off? I apologize in advance for the next week or two. I might go to the beach later this summer, and could use to drop some weight
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that expressed my opinion precisely. thank you flim. rec'd.
there are glaring problems with this team. but i’ve never given up on them. and i can’t stand reading the endless “praise people who’ve played well in the last four days; blast those who haven’t” posts.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
because this team has looked like shit for only 4 days. Get off your high horses. Is it so inconceivable that this team might actually look like a 80-82 win team to people?
Questioning whether people are bandwagon fans is an ignorant argument and one that I find offensive. I really can’t recall the last time it was ok to refer to people with a different opinion collectively as “mother fuckers”. Flim’s post (and your subsequent agreement and rec) are tasteless and cliche. There’s no argument here other than 1) remember that one time in 2006 and 2) throw in some garbage quote.
Just a really poor showing from the both of you.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jun 15, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
this
i’m shocked at you Flim. your better than that.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a point in there
To me it is found in the last sentence. No I wouldn’t have used the same language, but I can appreciate the general sentiment.
I still refuse to believe we are this bad offensively. Now we probably have some of the most difficult to project players in MLB baseball. It’s entirely possible that Ankiel and Ludwick overperformed their true talent level by a good margin last year. It is just as possible they are underperforming that level now. There is a vast middle ground between the 2 extremes. I’m not a big Skip guy, but I do believe he’s a better OBP guy than his stats show at this very minute. Molina is in a major funk. I don’t think he is what he showed in April, but I don’t think he’s what he has been since either. Again, vast middle ground.
Overall, I love this community. Some really great points brought up and usually backed up with some substance. However, people are really quick to point out when a guy is significantly overperforming. For example, we hold down our expectations about guys like Franklin quite well. This is for the best, but sometimes we don’t seem near as eager to do that for guys on the other side of the spectrum. I don’t know, maybe we don’t want to come across as a blind homer. Hell, maybe my impression is entirely off base altogether. But I don’t think expecting Ludwick, Schumaker, Ankiel, Molina to all have better numbers on October 1 than they do now is all that unreasonable. And if what I that happens, we’re likely to be in range to take the division in September. If ever there was a time to say it is going to get better, this would seem to be it. At least relative to the offense.
So if you interpret what Flim said to mean we’re probably overreacting to a horrible slump and we’re still in the race, then I agree with him. A sell off right now would really piss me off. It may make perfect sense in about 6 weeks, if we just can’t snap out of this, but if a sell off happens right now it’s a brutally bad management decision.
by Merry CRasmus on Jun 15, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
well said.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, we don't have much worth selling
most of our best players are on multi-year contracts, and the guys who are gone in 2010 (Ank, KBot, Pinata, Franklin if we don’t pick up his option, Glaus) won’t bring anything back for various reasons.
I could see us trying to give away some of the relievers (Miller might be worth something to someone desperate for a LOOGY, given his contract and performance so far, and Franklin could bring something minor I guess), but realistically we’re not going to land a blue-chip prospect by having a firesale of “impact” soon-to-be-free-agents; we don’t have any.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pinata and Franklin might be worth something
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
something
but, like I say, not a blue chipper. If we’re like 8 games out by mid-summer then I could see (say) selling someone like Carpenter IF he was on the last year of his contract and if he’d bring back, say, a Matt LaPorta-type impact prospect (i.e. like the CC deal). I would imagine Franklin and Pinata won’t bring back anything like that yield, they’d just give us even more prospects with a league-average ceiling to add to the bunch we already have. So, not without value, but not worth breaking up the team for if there’s ANY hope of competing.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 16, 2009 5:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the quitters & pathetic mother fuckering bandwagon fans is what i was talking about
that’s uncalled for. no matter who you are here, you don’t call everyone who doesn’t agree with your point of view that. i like Flim, he’s a good cat. but that was flat out wrong.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is unrelated to the topic at hand to some extent (i.e. common decency)
but I just wanted to focus on azru’s (possibly quite accurate) assumption that the cards are a low-80s-wins team in 2009.
That’s probably true, but the most recent projections I’ve seen at BtB (and a couple of other sources) seem to suggest somewhere between 85 and 88 wins will be enough to win the division this year. Yes, we suck at the moment, but it doesn’t take much of a push in marginal wins to make us a serious contender, even if you do take the realistic position that we’re maybe an 82, 83 win team at the moment.
And azru, we’re playing terribly at the moment, and I think we only need to go .500 from here out to finish with 82 wins. We’ve been about .500 for the last month and a bit (I believe – we were .500 in May and we’re less than .400 in June I think, to be fair), and this is with most of the team slumping. I’m going to guess we’ll finish on 84 or 85 wins if we don’t add anything, but I reckon we can make a couple of cheap additions (without giving up any meaningful prospects) to really improve our % shot at the post-season. We’ll still be one of the weaker teams in the playoffs, but, to quote the old cliche, it IS a bit of a crapshoot (as 06 showed).
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are we really down on our luck? or just playing awful baseball?
thats a pretty weak ass post from a supposed “Stat Whore.”
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jun 15, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's completely unnecessary
This team hasn’t hit for a month and half and doesn’t appear like that will change any time soon. That’s not being “down on your luck.” That is not being very good.
I hate when people cite 2006. That team was a broken bunch of budding malcontents that only made the playoffs because their division was dog shit and only won the WS because Yadi, Weaver, the young bullpen, and Suppan performed better than they ever had, and in some cases ever will.
Sure, this team COULD make the playoffs and COULD make a run, but quite frankly until this offense shows some life that is highly unlikely. That’s not bandwagoning, that’s looking at basic facts. I’m still going to cheer like hell, but I’m also smart enough to realize that something needs to change and that the pieces that are already in place are probably not going to get it done.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
other than april
we’ve hit and scored like this for the last 6-7 months 08 and 09). mo et al know this, which is why they wanted skip to play 2nd and took the risk with kbot (though i don’t think they were fully aware of his mental issues). we just have too many holes in the line up. if you look at it overall, the most amazing thing to me in this year’s offense is what albert is doing. why he ever sees a strike is perplexing.
overall, i agree that we would benefit from having better decisions at the plate. i don’t have a major problem with swinging at the first strike, but my own “incredibly valuable personal approach” was to look at 0-0 as 3-0. long way to go for me as a hitter and i’d focus on “my strike”. can always swing at the pitcher’s strike once you have a strike on you. i just see us letting the pitchers off too easy. make them get you out!
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Jun 15, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to get all "business model" on you
But do you really think it is likely that we will be able to limp into the playoffs, and win it all with this team we have now? We need to pick a dirrection. Are we going to buy, trading away a prospect or two for an impact player like Holliday or Bedard; or are we going to sell someone like Pineiro, who is having a career year.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take that one step further...
…If limping into the playoffs and then pulling a run out of our asses IS the business model, than someone needs to get fired.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Playoff's are a crap shoot
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you don't build a strong team, you likely won't make the playoffs
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have a strong starting rotation
Carp, Wainwright, and Pineiro are all posting sub 4.0 FIPS
Plus, wants the the playoffs start you can shed players that you just needed for the endurance of the season
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes...
…but the defense is still atrocious, so regardless of those guys’ FIP’s the teams run-prevention will suffer. This is compounded by the fact that this offense is and will be dreadful. So, the way I see it you either make some deals to upgrade the offense OR you rejigger your team to be a run-prevention machine. This team is in no man’s land.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If our lineup going forward is
Molina, Pujols, Schu, Ryan/Tyler, KBot, Ludwick, Raz, Ank, then we have +ve defensive players in every spot but 2B.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the alternative with our payroll?
Factoring in keeping Pujols, especially. Honest question.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying
…that because this team doesn’t have a ton of coin, then the best we can hope to do is keep paying Carp and Pujols and then hope it all works out? I’m sorry, but we can do better than that. Get in on undervalued players. Find a way to drastically improve the defense for cheap.
Right now, I think the team is stuck with what they have. But, if before the season or after this season the plan is to build a team to win 85-7 games and hope that’s good enough, then that’s unacceptable.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But what if a 85-87 win team is good enough to get you in the playoffs?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
even if it is
you should never be content to be mediocre. Teams that have 95-100 win talent put themsleves in a much better position to win it all. I almost wish we wouldn’t have won it in ’06. because now all this playoffs is a crapshoot shit takes hold.
I really am glad we won in ’06. I just wish it would have been with a better team.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 15, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
2006 was awesome.
To see the 2005, 2004 or 2002 teams win it all would have been better. I don’t wish to come off unappreciative, it’s just a brutally honest admission. It was almost as heartbreaking as watching the ’85 team to see the great and deserving ’04 team be swept like impotent he-bitches in the WS.
"Every epoch dreams its successor" - Jules Michelet
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Jun 15, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...no, I'm asking
As I said. For instance: Which undervalued players are you looking at? How do you drastically improve the defense?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They could...
…drastically improve the defense simply by playing Thurston at 2nd and, whenever you would play Duncan in LF, play Skip there instead. Mark Grudzielanek is sitting on his couch somewhere and if he’s in shape and wants to play he could be had for cheap. NEVER EVER EVER play Nick Stavinoha and call up Mather, hoping he puts it together offensively. Always play Colby Rasmus, at least when he’s physically able to play. Play K. Greene sparingly when he comes back. Trade for Adrian Beltre, whose value has been depressed by his poor hitting but can still flat-out field. That’s a list of possibilities that literally took seconds to bang out, and you can’t tell me the FO can’t figure something else out with all the resources they have.
I’m not saying these are moves to make. But any number of these ideas would make the defense better. As for undervalued guys…well you’ll probably have to wait until the offseason, but start kicking the tires on guys with expiring contracts who could play better than guys the Cardinals already have. These guys could probably be had for less than their worth. Besides Beltre, Bedard, Kouzmanoff (who is bound to hit better at some point), and Austin Kearns (who can flat out field) have expiring contracts and could help this team in one way or another. This list took about 2 minutes to put together.
You asked this:
What’s the alternative with our payroll? Factoring in keeping Pujols, especially. Honest question.
I said that you find undervalued players in the offseason or expiring contracts (who are likely to be valued less than their worth because of said expiring contract and the team’s desire to get something out of said player) or you say to hell with the offense and simply boost your run prevention internally. Those are options that are feasible and won’t cost terribly much.
You seem to be saying that having Pujols and worrying about his future contract hamstrings this team. I don’t think that it does. Simply throwing up your hands and tossing some crappy team on the field that does nothing particularly well will pretty much guarantee Pujols will bolt, because that team won’t be very good. This team can be improved NOW for cheap, and can definately be improved by blowing it up in the offseason when we know better about who is worth keeping and who isn’t, provided that the FO is willing to spend a little bit. I don’t think this team’s payroll is so small that it can’t be aggressively used. The Cards aren’t the Yankees, but they aren’t the Marlins either.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for explaining
For the record, though, “What’s the alternative with our payroll? Factoring in keeping Pujols, especially.” does not mean all the things you think it means. It means: explain your strategy and factor in this priority. Thank you for finally doing so.
Also for the record,
Honest question.is internetese for I’m not being sarcastic, ironic, facetious, or even humorous. I am asking you what you think.
Step back and take a breath, dude. If you’re gonna jump the one person who wants to know what you think, I don’t know how you’re doing convincing the rest of the board.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AUSTIN KEANRS
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As an undervalued player who we could get for nothing
ZIPS projects him to be a league average hitter, and he has a career 9.3 UZR/150 in right. Plus he is a righty who absolutely mashes lefties (career .406 wOBA against them). Given the Nationals outfield glut and his BABIP related struggles so far this year, we could get him for literally nothing. He would probably be a 1 win upgrade over our current left field situation.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
given our LF situation is Chris Duncan
and, against lefties, the replacement-tastic Nick Stavinoha, I think he could even be worth two wins….
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is it time to start the TRADE FOR AUSTIN KEARNS petition?
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
by hazel on Jun 15, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball Prospectus still thinks we have a chance
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change
Brewers 34 29 .490 83.4 78.6 24.65438 6.37568 31.03006 -2.19134 -11.10115
Cardinals 34 30 .517 85.5 76.5 36.07849 7.37315 43.45164 -3.62489 1.13470
Reds 31 31 .467 78.5 83.5 7.95116 3.05456 11.00572 -2.48448 -8.80986
Cubs 30 30 .503 82.5 79.5 20.62227 6.12243 26.74469 2.38825 -1.63140
Pirates 30 33 .478 78.2 83.8 7.23880 2.76513 10.00393 1.95751 3.51818
Astros 29 32 .457 75.3 86.7 3.45491 1.35067 4.80557 1.15436 -0.34093
Take a look at those numbers. Most people think we are playing the worst baseball ever but we have actually INCREASED our chances to make the playoff’s over these last 7 days.
People talk like we don’t have a chance and one more bat won’t make a difference. Well I disagree. Right now BP is projecting that the
Cardinals will finish with 85.5 wins
Brewers will finish with 83.4 wins
Cubs will finish with 82.5 wins
That is a 3 game win difference between 1st and 3rd. So adding one player that could potentially add 1 or 2 wins over the rest of the season would still make a huge difference.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did we increase our chances
or the Brewers decrease theirs?
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most likely since the Reds and the Brewers are playing worst than us
But that is the point. We aren’t the only teams doing poorly right now.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right that's what I am saying
But I don’t like just sitting on our asses hoping for the best with our current club. If it looks like we don’t have much of a chance come the trade deadline, it’s time to start selling off the guys who are overperforming. Guys like Franklin and Pineiro might be able to bring in a decent haul from a desperate contender, and they don’t factor in to our future plans at all.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But do you understand why we are sitting on our asses?
If you look at our minor league system right now. Most of our best trading chips are currently under performing. So unless we can trade them on their potential we are going to be selling short on them. My guess the FO is trying to hold off as long as possible so we can give up as little as possible. A lot of teams still think they are in it so prices are still high.
We don’t know what the FO is doing. But I bet they are looking for a bat.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade chips, Flim.
I disagree a bit. Perez is throwing well. Todd looks great. Motte is doing a pretty good job. Yeah the AAA bats kind of suck right now, but the arms are looking good.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Jun 15, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm gonna go for a probably piss-weak "third way"
and try to stay in the hunt, make some cheap, shrewd additions (one or two of the 3B and RH OF options discussed), keep all our best prospects and try to put out a competitive team. I don’t think “go for broke in 09” is warranted, as many have noted, as we’re probably at least 2 star-calibre players away from being the best team in the NL, maybe even more. But we’re a couple of marginal adds away from having maybe a 30% shot at the post-season, and,as fans, I’m sure we don’t want to see the team blown up when we’ve got a shot at being competitive in a poor division.
Also, I have no confidence whatsoever in him being back in the regular season, but if Glaus is back in the playoffs (esp. if we add another arm towards the end of the year), even if we limp in as an 86-win team, replacing whoever’s at 3B with Glaus makes us into a 90-win calibre team, going into the post-season. I don’t honestly think there’s too many strong teams in the NL this year – add Glaus and maybe a RH OF and if we’re healthy I think only Philadelphia and LA are notably better than us.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We currently have a 46% chance at the playoffs
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno how BP figures that number
but I’d view it with a bit of an internet raised eyebrow, personally. The BtB predictions have us 3rd on 83 wins. 85 wins (what BP predicts) wouldn’t make the playoffs 46% of the time, I wouldn’t have thought. I think the Cubs, not the Crew, are the big threat. If they get everyone back from injuries and manage to stay fit like they did last year, I still think they’re a potential 90-win team.
Still, I’m solidly in the “we’re still well in the hunt, but we need to do something” camp.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what can the team do now that won't hurt the future?
are the Nats really willing to give up Dunn & Kearns for scraps? are the O’s ready to deal for scraps? the M’s? the DBacks? i don’t think so. i think any trade will require good young players the Cards should not give up for rentals. the days of Walt giving up scraps for stars are long, long gone. i think people need to realize the Cards don’t have a plethora of talent any other team wants. there’s still only a select few other teams want, and those are the ones the Cards would be foolish to part with.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could get Kearns for a bag of balls
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could get Kearns for a bag of balls
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently we need 2 bags
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can we spare two bags?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree a rh bat is key
But this is not feasible unless we fix the outfield situation. As all of us do, I want Rasmus to be one of our lefty outfielders. However, if we bring in another rh bat with out dealing with the lh outfield crunch that Ankiel and Duncan cause, then we are pretty much punching Rasmus’s ticket down to the minors. Either that or Ludwick will be benched every other game so that duncan can start againt lefties…..shutter……..
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
Kearns is a long way from the potential masher we saw in Cinncy
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but he still kills lefties and plays great defense
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This season he is also batting .207, .194 against lefties and makes 8 mil this year
I don’t think this team has the flexibility to buy low and expect him to work through his season long slump…….
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if you've noticed
But this team is expecting the entire roster to work through their season long slump.
BTW, Kearns’ OBP is still .344, which is decent. Definitely better than the .207 BA makes him seem.
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So throwing another struggling "vet" to the mix will solve our problem?
I thought that we are trying to improve the team, not add to the laundry list of problems that need to be addressed…..
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His BABIP is .275
There is a reason for his struggles. ZIPS projects him to be a league average hitter the rest of the season. He kills lefties, he plays great defense. He is much better than our current left field options.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least his struggles have come along with a decent OBP
Which is better than what our struggling guys have done
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned a bunch of players we could get for NOTHING
who would help us right now.
Austin Kearns. Brian Giles. Matt Murton. All of these are better than Stavinoha, better than Duncan. That’s what I’m saying – I don’t think we’re good enough to give up much of our young talent to risk it all in 09, but we can get APPRECIABLY better by giving up next to nothing. Kearns and Giles are salary dumps.
If we wanted a RH 3B we could get Garrett Atkins for nothing, too – I don’t really want Atkins, but these sort of players are available for nothing. We have so many black holes in the lineup that just adding LEAGUE AVERAGE players in several positions helps us immensely.
By the end of the year, if we make no additions, we will likely be somewhere in the region of REPLACEMENT LEVEL at 2B, 3B and LF, the way it’s going. Minor additions and playing players in their correct position can easily add 3 or 4 marginal wins to our total, for NOTHING, which may put us in contention for the division.
That’s what I’m saying – don’t sell the future to compete now, but make the minor additions to plug our black holes. We won’t suddenly become one of the best teams in baseball, but we become competitive.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 16, 2009 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cuttin our chances
as we and all nl central teams drop further and further behind the league’s best teams, it will be win the divisdion or buy a nice tv for the playoffs.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Jun 15, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Throw in the towel?
I never said this season is over, my point is that to expect a repeat of 2006 is unrealistic. If you are counting on that great, but I will go with the history books. What happened in 2006 was special because no team with 83 wins had done it before. Do you really expect lightning to strike twice.
"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"
by BleacherBum on Jun 15, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no, I think we expect
to win 85-87 this year, and the addition of a +3-4 WAR player like holliday or F sanchez would make that team into an 89-91 win team. And once you make the playoffs, all bets are off.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point exactly
Even talking about selling off sounds so ludicrous to me. These are not $4.4 million dollars wins we are talking about either. These are $10M wins. The wins that matter between going to the playoff’s and not going.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't have minded as much about getting shut down by Cliff Lee
if we hadn’t lost a few games already for Carp. they guy ain’t getting any run support
4B - beer baseball bands blog
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Part of what happened last night is perception.
Lets face it, we Expect Carp to do to other teams what Lee did to us yesterday. When that happens we don’t say their hitters were at fault, we recognize that Carp is just that good. Well, sadly for us, Lee is that good also and he was on.
The other part is so many of our viewers have been conditioned to think there is “one true way” to pitch. I really hope Duncan was paying attention to how Lee went against almost everything he teaches our pitchers and was, gasp, outstanding. We have pitchers with the stuff to work the upper half of the zone like Lee did all night, and no we didn’t suddenly tee off his 92mph high fastballs. However, when Motte or Perez is on the mound you will see Molina setup low and away again and again, WHY? Now with perez where he sets up doesn’t matter that much since none of us know where the ball is going to go anyway. However, with Motte he often hits the target.
Why take away half the zone from the pitcher and basically let the other team know where we are going to be pitching all night?
by DriverZn on Jun 15, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
what?
lee put on a pitch-to-contact clinic last night. Pounded the strike zone, set up his cutter with the 4-seamer all night long, got a ton of ground balls, etc. The team only struck out 6 times all night long, and Rick Ankiel was 3 of those and T Greene was one on a called strike that wasn’t close to a strike.
That was just good pitching.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee's got nothing on Joel
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(excpet a cy young award)
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
by STLRegalia on Jun 15, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was, we should use the WHOLE strike zone.
not just the low and away corner.
by DriverZn on Jun 15, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boredom + Probably not worth a fanshot
Since I am getting that familiar “damn it seems like we’re just getting screwed by lefty pitching” feeling I decided to check b-ref and see if we are facing an unusual amount of LHP so far. The answer, surprisingly or unsurprisingly, is a resounding “maybe!”
This is far from perfect, as I merely made a list of PAs against lefties for each NL team so far this year to see how we compare. Maybe it would be better to see the # of actual lefty pitchers faced or something like that, but this was easier.
This still takes into account AL lefties we face, and I didn’t see much point in comparing to AL offenses. Listed in order from greatest to least.
Braves: 822
Pads: 794
Phils: 776
Cards: 720
Marlins: 714
Rocks: 688
Nats: 660
Dodgers: 659
Mets: 625
Dbacks: 616
Pirates: 579
Reds: 577
Brewers: 555
Giants: 552
Astros: 498
Cubs: 429
So out of 16 NL teams, we are in the top 25% when it comes to amount of PAs against lefthanders, so far this season. Does this surprise anybody? Is this going to be the kind of stat that will fluctuate wildly no matter what, and doesn’t tell you all that much? Probably. Also, if lefties are shutting you down then theoretically you’d have fewer PAs per game against them, but you’d have at least a set # per game assuming they last a decent amount of innings against you. Just food for thought. Or harsh dismissal as totally meaningless and irrelevant, take your pick. I like giving you the power to decide.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I have been looking at our contact and swing rates
I honestly wish I knew how to look at our Z and O Swing/Contact rates against Lefties vs Righties
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the pa's v. a LHP are not wholly random. since we have lots of LH batters, we will see more
LHP — either by pitching more LOOGY-type relievers or teams rejuggling their rotations to bring more lefties to start against the cards.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, at first I didn't buy that a team would juggle their rotation like that
But maybe they would. I have been assuming that if there was an effect, it would be more due to relievers than starters but maybe managers really do throw lefty starters at us. Who knows.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Piniella does it
at least for the Brewers where he avoids starting LHers.
by ol Pete on Jun 15, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LHP Starters
team record 12-9
vs RHP starters 22-21
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That I did not expect.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me neither
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
W-L is a pretty dubious stat though
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
W-L are only the primary criteria used for making the postseason. other than that, useless…
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
by madding on Jun 15, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just saying that it's not very accurate
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it provides us w/ no information that helps us make decisions to improve the team
by FunkeeC on Jun 15, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't imply usefulness
just thought it was interesting that the Cards have a winning record. FWIW recent history against LHP starters
2008 27-29
2007 29-27
2006 23-34
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my reply was aimed at madding not you
but based on those previous 3 yrs, looks like we are certainly playing about the same vs lefties as we have in the past
by FunkeeC on Jun 15, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not madding
I think alot of times people remember how bad the team was in 06 against LHP. True we don’t hit for shit, but since the start of 07, the team plays about .500 against lefties.
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When talking about pitching W-L, I agree
However, the problem with the numbers ubeddie cited is that in the games vs. LHP starters, hardly any of them were pitched completely with LHP (last night obviously was one of them), and the same can be said for the games vs. RHP starters.
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is getting to be like
“It’s like getting a great player back in trade”.
by sdrone on Jun 15, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm more interested
in what the teams slash lines are versus lhp, then I am the win loss record.
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me too
I am just surprised that we have actually managed to win against lefty starters so much this year. Small samples and whatnot. I doubt we’re actually hitting better against them.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
B-R page
FWIW here is a link to the slash lines Click on the vs LHP as LH and it pulls up individual batter stats.
vs LHP as RH .238/.325/.397
vs LHP as LH .216/.289/.315
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, not great
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cards & League averages
Cards
vs LHP as RH .238/.325/.397
vs LHP as LH .216/.289/.315
League
vs LHP as RH .266/.343/.425
vs LHP as LH .238/.313/387
Against LHP, it looks like our RH are hitting as well as league average LH and our LH just suck.
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
surprised to see the braves at the top
they’re pretty right-hand-hitter heavy, aren’t they? I am guessing that’s partly why they added McLouth…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just want to know...
why John Mozeliak, and before him, Walt Jocketty, make no attempts over the offseason to fix the problem with this team versus LHP? They continuously fail in bringing in guys with favorable splits versus LHP (and i’m not talking about just impact players, even role/platoon players). We’ve had this issue with LHP since atleast 06, and probably earlier (my memory sucks), you’d think they’d atleast make an effort to fix this shit.
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
given we have a manager who loves to play lefty-righty splits
we seem especially bad at it in other areas of the game. No decent righty hitters (other than Lud and Albert) and no LHP starters either.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anybody else pick up on this stat?
Cards are tied for fewest comeback wins (10) in ML
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
by gocards62 on Jun 15, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol yes, cause that usually means that our pitching isnt very good that game
and we have all seen what our offense looks like
by FunkeeC on Jun 15, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
record aafter the sixth inning
B-R has a Scoring Page which shows the team is 4-20 when trailing at the start of the 6th inning. At least the Cubs are worse at 3-23
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm frustrated
Look…Cliff Lee is a very good pitcher. However, the Cardinals made life easy for him. Plain and simple, they got themselves out more often than not. I don’t buy the “well, maybe those WERE their pitches!” argument, because if they were why were the swings so crappy and unaggressive? No, this team, as a group, has no idea what their pitches are. I think that Ludwick, if nothing else, will start hitting for more power because he always has had that ability. I think that Ank will have some kind of a hot streak at some point based on teams throwing him a few hanging curveballs here and there. That won’t be enough.
At what point does the FO and manager “get it” and realize that some of these guys simply aren’t going to turn it around because they don’t have the ability to turn it around? At what point do the team’s hitters realize that you can’t get by hacking away at everything? At what point does it become clear that just because Stavinoha has had some big hits in a few games that he’s a useless player? At what point does Hal McRae get fired, because this team goes through team-wide stretches of horrible at bats every year (granted, maybe that’s the players and I don’t know how much impact McRae really has one way or the other, but if you’re a hitting coach and your team isn’t hitting…)? At what point does TLR stop being batshit insane and just start playing Rasmus and Ludwick every day that they can physically play?
I feel that it is absolutely horrible that we are watching Carpenter and Pujols perform at a remarkably high level and yet this team can’t score. This team is below .500 since April ended…that is a month and a half of stinkitude. That’s not a bad stretch. That’s a poor team.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i've come to the conclusion Hal isn't going anywhere
Tony loves him too much to let him go. to get rid of Hal, were going to have to get rid of Tony.
i couldn’t find it, but last week HL posted their record since sometime in 06 i think. and if i’m remembering correctly since then they are 15 or so games above .500. hammering home the fact that it’s not just this past month & a half that they aren’t very good. they haven’t been very good for going on 3 seasons now. the 06 WS win was a fluke. they fell ass backwards into the playoffs, got everyone healthy & shocked the world. people need to let it go. it was great & all, but that team isn’t this team.
at the end of this year i really hope MO & Dewitt see that blowing this team up & cutting ties with all the under performing players like Ank, Welley, Skip & Dunk will go a long way into making the Cards a true WS contender.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pineiro will probably be gone next year too
hopefully
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was the end of 2005
Walker retired
Sanders left
Grudz left
Matty Mo signed with San Fran
Scott Rolen was coming back
We traded for Larry Bigby and Aaron Miles
We signed Juan Encarnacion
We signed Timo Perez
We signed Braden Looper
We signed Sidney Ponson
After that, we are now actually 13 games over .500 or roughly 4 games over .500 for each season.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh dear
Of those guys you listed, it’s hard to believe that the team got the most value out of Looper after he was turned into a back-end starter. I’ve decided, just now, that from that point on Walt Jocketty was dead to me.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
has anyone played with the what-ifs
of Juan Encarnacion?
What happened to him was yet another chapter of in the freakish and tragic (GOB!!!) 00’s.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but that gave Luddy the chance to play every day.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be careful for what you wish for?
When I see the line-up for this team every day I can’t help but think of all the people (including myself at times) that was shouting from the rooftops a few years ago for this team to get younger and to bring up the guys from the minors to bring this team to the promised land again.
Not trying to poo poo on the plan, but when I see this team, all I can think of is that we are in desperate need of a veteran hitter to help Pujols and maybe to help these young guys out. Somebody with a presence like Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker was for us.
I’m not going to throw in the towel yet, and I may be the only one to think this but I would like to see what bringing in a veteran bat can do to help this offense. I would be ok for Mo to make a move to get us a good stick to maybe kickstart the heart of this 2009 team.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Jun 15, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Troy Glaus will be like trading for a veteran bat when he comes off the disabled list
or maybe I should say “if”
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you know...
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It really is!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a perfect world
Tony would sit down with Daddy and tell him that they are getting rid of his son and they are going to bring in Adam Dunn. It wouldn’t be much of an upgrade on defense but would be more of a protection for Albert. I say Dunn because I think we could get him without having to sell the farm like we would have to do for Holliday.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Jun 15, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if they throw in Kearns, i wonder how much the reds would hate us?
or laugh?
i really don’t think Dunk is playing just because of his dad. i think Tony & MO actually believe his two half good seasons means he’s a 40-40 guy. and any second now his powar will return. it’s fool hardy to believe & base your season on that. but i wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case.
can we stop talking about Glaus? please? isn’t it best to not expect anything from him till he’s actually doing it on the field?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They think Dunk is a 40-40 what guy?
I’m guessing one of the theoretical 40s is homers. What’s the other one?
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Selling him a bit short, no?
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've heard them both say when healthy he's a legit 40 homer & double threat
but he’s not healthy, and he may never be 100% healthy. if were lucky, i think he could be a 20-20 hitter, but that’s only if the Cards have good luck. and we all know that’s just not allowed.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, gotcha
for some reason I just wasn’t thinking of doubles. But that makes sense.
It would be nice if Duncan could crank out 80 xbh in a year, wouldn’ it?
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 15, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
until he's a good year past the surgery, i don't think we should expect
many XBH from him. he’s still good at walks, and the occasional double or homer. but he simply can’t get his powar back as quickly as the team is counting on him to do.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 15, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if Albert and Yadi and Carp aren't enough veteran presence
It won’t matter if we’ve got a team of untried young guns or streaky journeymen.
We’re seeing the same approach at the plate. It’s backed up in many cases by the lineup decisions. Approach => losing outcome. Losing outcome + same approach = frustration. Frustration leads to more losing. (Also: fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering, and we all know what happens then.)
Change the approach and see what happens. I mean, look at the bullpen. As shaky as it is, after the last few seasons, I am mightily relieved and pleased of the progress made. Ok, it’s not the same bag of crazy, but they changed their approach to something that works and they look pretty comfortable with it.
My personal benchmark for this season was whether the team could pull themselves out of a slump. I’m seeing a lot of guys who want to, who are working hard to do it, but aren’t in a strategy/system/coaching philosophy that’s facilitating it. The plan needs to adapt if it’s going to work.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also: fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering, and we all know what happens then
You become a Cub fan?
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they strike me as more Ewok
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 15, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a matter of the youth movement being the problem
It’s a matter of we’re relying on the youth movement too early.
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That...
…or the veteran guys aren’t doing jack crap. Ludwick was one of the best hitters in baseball this year, and he’s done nothing from about a week before his injury to the present date. Rick Ankiel has no idea what he’s swinging at. Tony’s nephew, Little Chrissy Duncan, is either too hurt or too bad to play well. Molina has fallen apart at the plate.
The upper echelon talents in the system were the ones most were advocating bringing aboard the big club and playing a lot. Rasmus and Motte have done fairly well, and Boggs and Perez certainly didn’t/aren’t embarass/ing themselves. Brendan Ryan has played a strong defensive SS, which is pretty much all anyone ever expected. Nick Stavinoha and Shane Robinson were never part of the desired youth-movement. Joe Mather and Bryan Anderson haven’t quite yet figured it out yet, but Mather didn’t embarrass himself in his debut last season either. The right young players haven’t been the problem…it’s the wrong ones and the “core” guys.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we're not in need of some old guy
to come and help the team. This “we need a veteran presence” meme that we hear so often from people like Al is nauseating. We need a good hitter — someone to play 2b, 3b or LF, preferably. We don’t need a “veteran” just b/c he’s older. And I’ll add that 1 hitter isn’t enough if Ludwick doesn’t come around or if the other spots I mentioned in the post don’t improve.
by chuckb on Jun 15, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
September 12, 2008
Why is there no game thread for that day? I can’t seem to find it.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wait, I found it
man, that was tough.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just found it using the Power Search
and was too slow to post the link. Now I’m waiting to find out why you wanted to find the game thread to a 10-2 loss to the Pirates.
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For some reason I have the 12th and the 13th still on my DVR
waiting to be burned to DVD.
I’m trying to figure out why I wasn’t home for the game on the 12th. I know why I was out on the 13th.
The game was also supposed to be on in HD on FSN Pittsburgh but I recorded it in SD. Bizarre.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
it is one of the greatest game thread openings EVER!
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Throwing this out there....
The Cardinals next opponent is the Detroit Tigers, and they will get to face none other than Justin Verlander. I’m predicting CG, 0 K, 0 BB, 1 H, 1 HBP, 37 pitches. Post game post conference comments from TLR:
“We tried to change up strategies. A couple of at bats we took a pitch.”
“Hal McRae deserves a lot of credit.”
“We wanted to be aggressive.”
“I hate dogs.”
Maybe not the last one.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 15, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
At least Verlander is a RHP
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BEN SHEETS
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.....is quite possibly
a left-side-of-the-infield-playing version of Nick Stavinoha…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 15, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cleveland (off topic)
I was in Cleveland this weekend. We went to the game on Saturday and went to dinner afterwards. We happened to go to the same restaurant as many of the Cardinals players. We sat right next to Jason Motte, Chris Perez, and PJ Walters.
Skip walked in and was extremely friendly towards my wife and 3 year old son. He gave his autograph and a high five. He even chatted for a few minutes. He was a really nice guy.
My friend’s daughter, who is 13 years old, had her Ankiel jersey on. Rick was sitting at a table with Chris Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and a couple others. She really wanted Rick’s autograph and asked me to point him out so she could ask him. (She couldn’t recognize him with no uniform) We waited till they were done eating and I pointed him out.
She walked up and politely asked if he would sign her jersey. Rick imediately turned his head and ignored her. I don’t think anyone could’ve come off anymore rude or arrogant than what he did. It was so bad that Wainwright, took the jersey and signed it himself.
Some other folks eating at the restaurant saw what happened and came up and said what a bunch of jerks they all were besides that one guy (Wainwright).
I just thought this was pathetic by a professional sports player and wanted others to hear it. It was embarrassing. I just still can’t believe that a player would treat a 13 year old fan that way. I’m definitely no fan of his.
by Carps on Jun 15, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I am kind of suprised
That your friends daughter could not spot out Ankiel. I mean he was wearing a sombrero on his head.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I'm going to rec
Even though I’m pointing out that on Saturday he only had 1 K
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's been pretty interesting
reading all of the cardinal player meetings the people here in the veb community have been having recently.
as for rick, that’s pretty disappointing. from what i’ve heard, he’s usually a class act. he’s probably very frustrated with his recent struggles, but that’s still no excuse to treat a fan (a 13 year old, no less) that poorly. good for wainwright!
the carpenter story a while back and this one kind of sadden me.
cardinals are the things with feathers that perch within the soul.
by ilrosso on Jun 15, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I understand that this generally isn't a way to treat another person,
You figure they get alot of these walk-up type situations. I cannot judge someone’s character because they do not want to be approached when they are on their own time. I Besides, its always a drag when the autograph hounds will send up younger children to try to solicit autographs (you guys know who im talking about). That all said, I would probably be alittle offended if my favorite Cardinal flat out ignored me, but I couldnt hold it against them.
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially not at the park but he is eating dinner after a tough day
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's inexcusable
People who aren’t even fans of the Cardinals we’re floored. If he didn’t want to be bothered all he had to do was say no. The way he handled it, was ridiculous. He makes $3mil a year because of fans, he should respect them and every other human being for that matter.
by Carps on Jun 15, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is about respect
But to me it is disrespectful to harass players outside the park. I know they are entertainers but don’t they deserve some privacy also?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 15, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His behavior cannot be directly correlated with his salary,
or else I would expect A-Rod to kiss my first born. Professional athletes make ridiculous amounts of money, but we should not expect 3 million dollars worth of love from Ankiel.
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For every story like this, there's a good one.
Just like us, players have good and bad days.
I was at the Cubs series earlier this season in Chicago. When the team came down to warm up their arms down the foul line, Rick was chatting it up with all the Cards fans. As he jogged down he yelled “How’s everybody doin today? Great day for baseball ain’t it?” Fans would occasionally yell out stupid, random question and he would answer them, with some wit thrown in.
One player who did seem to “Big league” a lot of the fans was Colby. Everyone was yelling his name and praising him and he didn’t so much as wave or nod.
Tons of players signed that day. On that day alone I got: Skip, Wellemeyer, Freese, Perez, KMac, Motte, Franklin, and PJ Walters.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
by stltrav09 on Jun 15, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post
In regards to Colby, I can totally see him stonewalling fans. Have you seen him talk to the media?
by sleeple55 on Jun 15, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is that him being standoffish out of pride or just naturally withdrawn?
i think colby is just not very outgoing.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or might it be
that he’s all-business once he’s on the field?
by chuckb on Jun 15, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
could be, although since he's not chatty in post-game media performance, i'm more
inclined to think he’s just not chatty at all.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 15, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think him not being chatty
is the fact he’s a 22 year old kid without much life experience outside of baseball. While realizing most of his age group peers are pounding random-bombs and sounding fucking ridiculous, he at least sounds polite, though socially awkward as hell.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
by Alxfritz on Jun 15, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no first hand knowledge of the Cardinal locker room
Nor the intricacies that take place therein, but I have heard of professional sports locker rooms that do not allow rookies to do certain things. Maybe he “can’t” talk to fans until the ASB or playoffs or next year…?
by stlfan on Jun 15, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would seem like a crummy
thing to do to the rookie.
“hey, kid, one of the hazing things we do here is disallow you from talking to fans.”
cardinals are the things with feathers that perch within the soul.
by ilrosso on Jun 16, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can look at it that way
or you can look at it as, “We’ve seen you get it done at every level in the system, but we don’t want you to be concentrating on anything but the task at hand because you’ve started slowly in every level you’ve played at.”
by stlfan on Jun 16, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First Nats game this year
Colby was not starting and he was the only Card to sign autographs after batting practice. He took his time, since he had nothing to do later that evening. Must have signed close to 50 before he had to head to the dugout. I tried to get one for azru but I was too far down the line.
by ubeddie on Jun 15, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, he was doing the same at SF this year
Wonder if they have a rotation or something?
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
We’ve run into Colby twice. One was the same night as Ankiel. He remembered my wife. He stopped in front of our table. He’s very friendly. he’s definitely young and acts it a little. He’s not quite sure how to act or what to say, but he tries really hard.
by Carps on Jun 16, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno...
I don’t think you should expect a player to sign an autograph when he’s “off-duty” so to speak.
That some do, like Skip, is a sign that some players are nice. But not signing is not a bad thing.
How does a player know that you’re not just going to turn around and put whatever he signed up on ebay? There are people who do that for a living.
by DiscoJer on Jun 15, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
even if that is the case
it is a 13 year old kid, give her the damn benefit of the doubt. Even if he didn’t want to give her an autograph while eating…it is still a 13 year old, give her the dececny of at least telling her why you don’t want to give an autograph.
All I am saying is it is just being a good human being not to basically tell a kid to screw off.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 15, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Attn Rick Ankiel
You will be out of baseball within 2 years, you should sign all the autographs you can.
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
yeah, I'll rec that.
And when he’s gone, they’ll see him walk down the street, and say, “there goes rick ankiel. he could have been the best there ever was.”
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 16, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure whether
this has been posted. FJM.
by Toddius on Jun 15, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure whether
this has been posted. FJM.
by Toddius on Jun 15, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for the double posting -
PS – read the comments.
by Toddius on Jun 15, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I put together a game thread
for the MLB Network classic game of Gibby’s 1968 WS performance that starts at 8 EST.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
First pitch in 10 minutes
I’m heading over.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 15, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Casey McGahee must have the highest BABIP ever
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 8:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Someone help me understand BABIP/LD%
If a guy has a BABIP of .396 and a LD% of 26.8%, is that lucky?
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
probably a little
depends what the league averages are that year, how many infield pop-ups and bunts he hits, etc.
The other big caveat is that some scorekeeper records whether a ball was a LD or a FB, so there’s room for human error.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best predictors of what someone's "Real" BABIP should be
are a combination of LD%, GB% and FB% (because GB lead to base-hits more often than FB, and LD lead to a hit like 80%+ of the time), and their historical stats (a guy with ten years’ service and a career BABIP of .320 is likely a “true talent” .320 BABIP hitter, unless his peripherals have changed markedly).
You can get a ballpark figure for expected BABIP (aka xBABIP) by multiplying LD% by a specific multiplier, but I believe that will underestimate BABIP for a speedy GB hitter and overestimate it for a slow FB hitter. The formula I’ve seen that apparently does a better job of calculating it is:
expected BABIP = .15 * FB% + .24 * GB% + .73 * LD%
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 16, 2009 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cleveland up 8-6
If they hang on, we’re tied for the division league. Even as poorly as we’ve played.
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 9:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Indians bullpen sucks
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and the Brewers take the lead on a Fatboy Grand slam
pathetic.
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Cleveland
DeRosa for Perez straight up. Your bullpen fucking blows.
by cloistermaximus on Jun 15, 2009 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no deal!
I’m not giving up 5 years of Perez for 3 months of DeRosa.
by chuckb on Jun 15, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about Royce Ring (or one of our other AAA LOOGYs) + Brian Barden for DeRosa?
Throw in cash or middling AA prospects as necessary
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 15, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt that is enough
I think they need just one bullpen arm they can actually rely on for the 8th. Perez could certainly be that guy for them.
I would do that trade just because I feel like we have a surplus of good arms and think Perez will be a very good pitcher, but not great, and feel that DeRosa would be re-signable. I guess I’m just desperate for a bat with some pop in the lineup.
by cloistermaximus on Jun 15, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they'll get a much better package than that
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
by dcfcblues on Jun 15, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
anyone catch hafner vs hoffman in the 9th?
good video for many cardinals to watch
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Jun 15, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good at bat for sure
But Hoffman looked very hittable tonight. He got away with 2 hanging changeups that should have been killed if the 7-9 hitters in the Indians lineup were any good.
by cloistermaximus on Jun 15, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hoffman always looks like that, though
that’s the most awesome thing about him.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 15, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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