He's not helping on offense either
by chuckb on Jun 14, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintThere’s been relatively little discussion of Skip’s offense so far this season but it’s taken a notable step backwards from a very good 2008 season. Skip, of course, is the team’s leadoff hitter and the team’s offense right now is its biggest problem. One major reason for the offensive backslide is the lack of production from the top of the order. Skip’s most important job as the leadoff hitter is to get on base – a job he performed admirably last year (.359 OBP). This year, however, his OBP is more than 30 points lower than last year’s OBP. A .327 OBP is just unacceptably low for your leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, it’s not like the Cards’ roster is littered w/ other players who have been appreciably better at getting on base. Still, Skip’s OBP isn’t the only offensive statistic to have regressed so far in 2009. A closer look at the numbers indicates that Skip benefited from a .328 BABIP and this year he’s much closer to league average -- .302. Maybe he needs to slide head first into first base more often (but I digress)!
I’d like to believe that Skip has been a victim of bad luck so far this season but that notion is difficult to support when looking at the numbers. It may be more likely that he was lucky last year as opposed to unlucky this year. His line drive percentage is almost exactly the same this year as it was last year and since his BABIP is closer, this year, to league average, this year’s numbers may be more representative of his true ability than last year’s.
| OBP | BB% | K% | LD% | XBH% | ISO | P/PA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | .359 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 21.7 | 21.5 | .104 | 3.59 |
| 2009 | .327 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 21.5 | 25.9 | .106 | 3.94 |
You’ll see that Skip is doing some things at the plate this year better than last year. He’s reduced his strikeout rate and is hitting more extra base hits. He’s also seeing more pitches. Unfortunately, the extra pitches he’s seeing aren’t manifesting themselves into more walks. He’s also seeing about the same number of strikes he saw last year. Perhaps that lends some optimism to the idea that he may be able to increase his walk rate back to where it was last year. The problem is that this year’s walk rate is much closer to his career rate (7.1%) than last year’s rate was. Perhaps there’s some hope that the drop in Skip’s BABIP reflects some bad luck considering his relatively high GB% (61.8%) – maybe his BABIP should be somewhat higher than league average. The thing is, though, Skip can’t control his luck. Whether it was unusually good last year or unusually bad this year, it’s out of his control. What he can control is his walk rate and, given Skip’s limited offensive skill set, if he’s not walking any more than 6.8%, he’s not helping the team much offensively. Hell, even Ankiel’s BB rate is higher than Skip’s. He simply has to take more walks in order to be a good enough offensive player to justify the poor defense he’s playing at the keystone.
Night game on espn tonight. Hopefully everyone will join in for the discussion. Game thread will go up around 6:30 or 6:45.
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I like Ryan and T. Greene up the middle
Vastly upgrades the defense for our groundball pitchers and T. Greene has some offensive upside.
I don’t see the need to even keep Schumaker on the team. What we do need is a better offensive 3rd baseman to supplement the defensive middle infield allignment i proposed (not that they will be of the sure out variaty).
Milt Thompson FTW!
or thursty over schu at 2nd is a lot better too
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Skip is what he is...
A role player. Nothing wrong with that — but he’s a 4-5th outfielder/pinch hitter/occasional defensive replacement for Dunc (really, since Ank, Raz, and Lud should be our starting outfield, there’s no need to have defensive replacements). I think Thurston is a better option as the LH-hitting platoon option at 2b (with Boog as the RH-option).
The 2b experiment was/is fine – good for the organization for trying it. But the results so far were the likely results – Skip’s serviceable with the bat against RH-pitching but not a very good defender relative to other career 2-baggers in the majors (which you really couldn’t expect him to be).
I continue to be surprised at those who think Skip should start in LF. Ugh. He does not have the bat to play LF (which is why he was moved to 2b). And Skip has no value in a trade – he’s a light-hitting utility outfielder who’s reached his peak, can’t hit LH pitching very well, and has little speed. His one differentiating characteristic is that he can play n play 2b in a pinch. That’s not a valuable commodity – that’s someone who fills the last spot or two on the roster, does his job, and collects his major-league paycheck. Again, nothing wrong with that.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 14, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Why can't we turn Skip into the utility guy?
He fits all the qualifications: plays most defensive positions (he’d probably be better at 3rd defensively than 2nd), hits enough to not be a hole in the lineup, seems like a guy who will do whatever the team needs him to do. I think Skip’s okay, but he’s not a leadoff hitter, or a second baseman, or a good enough hitter to be in the outfield every day. Trade for a 3rd basemen, and then decide if there’s room for Thurston AND Skip on the roster. While I like everything Thurston has does (as well as having a soft spot for anybody who sprints to 1st after being walked), I would think Skip would win if we had to choose.
Because certain parts of
Cardinal management, for all their image of hard-eyed realism, allow sentiment and emotion to interpret what they see on the field. Does the idea that Schu might be overrated ever cross the mind of our manager? I doubt it.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 14, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have to disagree with that.
This is the same guy they told in the offseason he would have to learn second base to get regular playing time this year. And that was after he had a productive season. If he was hitting like he did last year, we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation.
It would have a different title, for sure
but if he was hitting like he did last year, he’d still be a liability on defense at second. That’s the basic problem: not enough bat to play the outfield corners, not enough glove to play 2B, and superior alternatives in CF, which is his “best” position.
by StanTheManFan on Jun 14, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
But we knew he wasn't going to be great coming in to this season
The whole point of the experiment was to move his bat to second and deal with the defense.
also, the numbers don't tell us whether or not his offense is improving
It’s debatable as to how well they measure defense as it is, we’re not going to be able to see trendlines very well at all.
That being said, in the games I’ve seen this season, he hasn’t exactly looked good, either.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I think you mean "..his defense is improving"
and I agree. His ratings were terrible after the first couple weeks of the season. They are apparently still bad, but, what would they be if we took out those first couple of weeks? Anyone with the ability/patience/etc. to find out?
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 14, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
My point exactly, which
is why I stand by my statement. Most fans focus their energy on obvious holes that we all talk about—3B, the rotation at this point, etc.—which is a good thing. But at the same time it looks to me like Schu is viewed as the solution to a problem, a “solution” we can live with. I think that is untrue, and that we pay a price when we assume that. It’s clear that our manager makes that assumpion as well.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 14, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
A lot of energy has gone into the the 3B situation. I think Glaus will return and if he doesn’t then Freese or Wallace will take over next year anyhow.
2B is a bigger issue. Everytime I see Schu he looks like he is walking around in concrete shoes. I think in many ways he has really upped his own long term value because he has the ability to play two key positions, but it’s a decidedly bad decision for the Cardinals to have him at 2B right now. Would have been good to keep Lopez around and I think they would have if they had DFA’d Kennedy earlier. I think that Mo and TLR were not talking or maybe MO wasn’t listening. TLR never intended to play Kennedy there again.
I’m still of the general view that the Birds should just keep upgrading the Starters, put some good defense out there and, hope they can eek out enough wins to win the division. Just not sure how you upgrade defensively right now.
Just win
Overstating the use of Schu
Schu has played 63.75% of the 2B innings. If Tony was so blind, Schu would be over 80%.
In my opinion, a solution at 3B would result in a solution at 2b. In other words, if Thurston and TGreene were free from 3B, they two could combine with Ryan and cover SS/2B.
Well, I'll agree that the 3B
problem spills over to the 2B problem. I guess I just can’t imagine Schu ever being made into a bench player by TLR, unless of course Moz were to add Chase Utley and an established 3Bman to the roster.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 14, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't think B-R can split defensive innings by opposing starter
Skip has 41 of 223 PA against RHP or 18.3%. Looking thru B-R I found his leading off game stats of .186/.239/.256. Let’s try someone new in the leadoff spot.
Only 18.3% against RHP?
maybe that should be LHP?
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 14, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
But it cuts both ways
he was the least talented of the 5 OF’ers we were going to have on the roster, so they contrived a way of keeping him on the team.
Then, to make matters worse, they fired a very good defensive 2B (who couldn’t hit and whose swing gave me seizures) but are paying him full wage.
So, to keep Skip Schumaker on the roster, it cost us $6 M and terrible defense at 2B. If he didn’t work out with Mark McGwire in the offseason, you’d wonder if they would have worked this hard to find him a spot.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Kennedy’s been almost as bad on defense this year as Skip. It appears that 2008 was an outlier for AK, defensively.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Which one do you think is the too small of a sample?
Skip or AK?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 14, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
well, both
along with AK’s 2007 and 2008, which were basically half-seasons.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
you have good stuff, for the most part,
but it often seems like your disdain for current management sometimes tilts your perception/opinion. That’s fine, and your right as a fan, but AK was done as a cardinal, no matter how good his defense was, and hitting with Mark McGwire adds no weight to Schumaker’s resume, his constant improvement at the plate, whether or not they are related to Big Mac classes in the mcdonald’s ball pit, is what helps his cause.
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
You don't think that Skip spending the off-season with McGwire working out
with a guy LaRussa wants to make a coach has no weight?
Because the other 2 guys that do: Chris Duncan and Matt Holliday are the guys he wants on his roster at all times.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.
I don’t think it has that much, if anything at all, to do with it. Even if it does, McGwire must know what he’s talking about.
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
for the most part
just realized that nice backhanded compliment.
And I don’t hate LaRussa, in fact, I used to be one of his biggest supporters. But he has soured the experience of having him as manager. As he’s grown older, he’s clung to playing favorites. More and more, he tries to win tomorrows game today, with no regard for actually winning today. He was an innovator in baseball who suddenly thinks new innovative ways at looking at the game are ‘armchair coaching’. His bizarre moves have become more infuriating. He turned on the local media and has made every press conference a battle of minds that (while entertaining) comes off as being above being questioned.
2006 was probably the breaking point when suddenly I didn’t defend his every move dogmatically (outside of ph’ing for McGwire in his last at-bat). He took Sydney Ponson over Adam Wainwright and Cardinal Pitcher of the Year Anthony Reyes. He insisted on sending Izzy out there when he clearly was hurt. He made infuriating decision after infuriating decision, like this one against the Cubs. Chris Duncan hits a HR in the 8th inning and gets a chance in the 9th with the bases loaded to take the lead and he pinch hits for him with Juan Encarnacion. We lose in the 10th on Izzy’s 2nd inning of work.
I could go on and on. He’s done more for this organization than any manager, probably more than Whitey (although Whitey changed the culture of baseball in St. Louis). However, at a certain point, no matter who good too groups are together…a separation is probably needed. Especially when philosophies in the organization clash from the front office to the on-field management.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Plenty of frustration to go around
I definitely hear you on those frustrating issues. I, too, got sick of poping rolaids tablets watching Izzy pitch last year (BTW, the fruity flavored ones are pretty tasty).
I just think that DeWitt and MO are giving him too many opportunities to micro-manage in the recent past. In the MV3 years, he didn’t have to do that. It’s an easy lineup fill-in when Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds are on the team. This year we had so many unknowns: 3B, 2B experiment, SS, an entire outfield of relatively newer players. We’ve played the most rookies in both leagues.
I guess I would extend my frustration to the management and also the players themselves. Also it’s hard for me to know if it’s TLR’s fault, or the player not being upfront with their injuries, e.g. Freese, Pineiro at the start of last year, Izzy, etc…
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
a little from column A, a little from column B,C,D,E,&F
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
It probably doesn't
because even when you weigh all skips shortcomings it is still hard for me not to like him>
it seems to me we should just decide who our So Taguchi is
And have done with it.
The competition for the top spots will soon shake out — there was a nice fanpost about this recently — but I don’t think it does anyone any good to have a bench/team/scurry* of Schrödinger So’s.
* a scurry of chipmunks
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
A pitcher's BABIP is a luck stat
a hitter’s is not. You can show that batters with either high foot speed, or three true outcomes sluggers can consistently maintain BABIPs far higher than league average.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Question for the group
Is a pitcher’s BABIP really luck? Intuitively, it seems to me that an ground ball pitcher would tend to have a lower BABIP than an equally talented pitcher who gives up more line drives and fly balls.
Is this true or is it just one of those things that seems to make sense but not really true?
Question for the goup
What the heck is BABIP? And why is it so ground breaking?
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
Is this a real question?
If so: Batting Average (for) Balls in Play.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
I see it here all the time but never bothered to ask or google what it was.
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
You should probably google it then.
I am by no means well versed in a lot of these statistics, but I’ve become much more familiar with and can understand their usefulness usually by seeing them used here and then I’ll google or look up the wiki page on them since most of them are over there and they seem to be explained quite simply.
By not googling or using wiki then all you can really expect here is the response HL gave you unless you’ve got a question that’s a little deeper and needs an explanation rather than a definition.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I wasn't trying to insult him
I was protecting myself from being ‘that guy’ who answers a sarcastic question with a serious answer.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I see.
I didn’t read his question that way, but I can see how in the back of your mind, you’re thinking “this is too out there to be serious.”
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
at the risk..
of also being called dumb, or lazy… doesn’t BABIP inherently favor whiffers? Like maybe Adam Dunn ( to pick one ) has one of the highest BABIP in the league? Or, illustrated in reverse, David Eckstein’s BABIP is probably way at the bottom?
If a batter K’s 100 + times a year, he damn well better have somewhat superior results when he DOES hit the ball, or else it’s back to the minors, or selling insurance.
Like one of the posters above, I slowly try my best to incorporate some of the acronym mania into my understanding; but I am haplessly old school; I hate strikeouts.
It could be, tho’, I don’t understand how BABIP is calculated. Isn’t it simply hits divided by (AB-K) ?
Dunn has a lower-than-average BABIP
BABIP is just balls-in-play, so HR’s are removed from the calculations. Fielders can’t catch them, so they are assumed to be luck-independant (though this isn’t completely true).
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
I think of it as
a stat to tell if the player is fast, or can induce errors because the hit the ball hard
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, a pitcher's BABIP is primarily luck.
Even great pitchers have babips that fluctuate wildly depending on sample sizes but trend toward just under .300 over longer terms. Fly ball pitchers actually have the lowest BABIPs, but they also give up more HR/9 and higher SLG% against.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
In a more theoretical sense,
it has been said that working ahead in the count can depress BABIP, however no so-called “great” starters have anomalously low career BABIPs. For instance, Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux all have career BABIPs around 290-300.
Meanwhile Adam Eaton, Brad Thompson, Joel Pineiro, Daniel Cabrera, and Scott Olsen all have career BABIPs around 290-300.
It is true that horrible pitchers like Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez have career BABIPs around 310 while Maddux’s BABIP was 289 for his career. It’s tough to say if these are real differences or margin of error noise.
On the other hand, great pitchers absolutely always outstrip bad pitchers in things like K/BB rate, and they often have better ground ball to fly ball ratios and lower HR/9 numbers.
Some very good relievers have low career BABIPs. Most writers are very careful to speculate as to whether a pitcher has any control over BABIP, and most are even more cautious about positing reasons for this (movement is one reason that gets thrown out from time to time but it has basically been proven that BABIP is pitcher neutral).
Hitters have been shown to have control over BABIP with their footspeed and batted ball types. Stats like exBABIP (expected BABIP) take this into account.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
not completely
Of course, a hitter’s babip is dependent on the quality of balls he hits. A guy who hits a lot of infield popups will have a lower BABIP than a guy who hits a lot of line drives, unless he is lucky. But a “lucky player” can only stay lucky for so long; it fluctuates, even for the guys who hit the ball incredibly hard, as we are seeing with Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols.
Howard, expected vs real BABIP, 2006-2009:
eBABIP BABIPExpect Howard to bounce back a bit soon.
0.332 .363 (lucky),
0.343 .336 (about right),
0.335 .289 (unlucky),
0.321 .289 (unlucky).
Even pujols fluctuates:
Expected vs real-world, 2006-2009:
EBABIP BABIP
0.296 .294 (right on)
0.310 .322 (bit lucky)
0.324 .346 (lucky)
0.289 .288 (right on).
Schumaker:
Expected vs real-world, 2007-2009:Sorry for the weirdly formatted tables, the SB nation update seems to have broken the “pre” function forcing everything double-spaced.
EBABIP BABIP
0.313 .368 (very lucky)
0.334 .328 (right on)
0.330 .302 (very unlucky)
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Ok, another one too lazy to go google the answer...
How is expected BABIP calculated? (My guess would be some formula that takes into account LD%, GB%, FB% but I thought I’d ask to be sure.)
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 14, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It's their batting average...on balls in play
Take a sample of all the balls they hit into play and see what their H/AB was on those balls.
I believe it’s as simple as that, though I might be wrong.
that's exactly right.
IMO you should remove bunts, as well, but the standard formula does not. It also includes SF as BIP, while they aren’t considered when calculating batting average. This is more correct, imho.
Deep-linking wikipedia,
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Agree
take out bunts and all sacrifices.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
well, SF's should be outs.
Those are fly balls, and it’s just “good luck” on the part of the player that there was a runner on third. It’s been shown that players don’t deviate significantly from their career LD/FB/GB numbers in SF situations. Removed from “batting average” is wrong, imho.
SH’s should be removed from BABIP, since they are intentional outs and typically can’t be hits; you’ll either reach on error or fielders choice or be thrown out. There’s no real luck involved, and even if you bunt for a hit, that more of a “skill”, and less of a matter of luck. BABIP on bunts-for-hits is typically close to .400, so it skews the numbers.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
SF being outs.
I can see your point. But a lot of time that is the desired result. The batter is trying to hit a fly ball.
but he can't hit a fly ball because he wants to.
batters don’t have control over that. batters who hit a lot of fly balls tend to have more SF’s, but they can’t just hit the ball in the air, deep, by trying hard to do so.
Also, it’s a bit odd that BA considers SF’s differently than ground balls to second base/SS with man on 3rd LT 2 out. They accomplish the same thing, typically.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Disagree about not having control over flyballs.
but I agree that SFs should be left in the BABIP equation. Your explanation sold me.
But, batters do have control over whether or not they hit the ball in the air. It’s not 100% fool proof, but you can control it somewhat.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
it's not the desired result
it’s an acceptable result. Big difference. The batting team would much rather reach base successfully or hit a homer than hit a fly ball and make an out. Any hit is better than a sac fly.
over in the trade thread, I mentioned freddy sanchez as an option
His EBABIP over the last 2 years has been identical: 0.341, and 0.352 and 0.331 in 2006 and 2007.
last year, his real BABIP was .292. This year, it’s .355. He was dreadfully unlucky last year, and would have been an excellent buy-low candidate this off-season. This year, he’s been a bit lucky, and would be a good sell-high situation for the Pirates (though his expected OPS would be around .800, so even factoring out the bit of luck he’s had this year, he’s been very decent as a 2B).
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Personally, in today's day and age
I rarely look at players that play in the division as trade targets. Now, the Pirates have been known to deal with the cubbies but I think they might have learned their lesson.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Does anyone think that the teams entire problem on offense is their approach?
ive watched almost every game this year on tv and they seem to take way less pitches this year than last
it just seems every time i watch a game ludwick ankiel thurston and skip are swinging at the first pitch if its in the strike zone
especially thurston
in the beginning of the year he seemed to work the count and hit the ball the other way
now he seems to try to pull the first pitch if it starts on the inside part of the plate
also yadi has suddenly stopped his opposite field approach
taking pitches affects the obp % a lot and every player on the team has a lower obp% this year than last
they could stand to be a little more patient
but I have no problem with
swinging at the first pitch if its in the strike zoneif it’s a good pitch, go for it. taking a first pitch strike might lead to higher pitch counts and working the count, but often times it also leads to falling behind in the count 0-2, and having a poor PA.
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
I agree.
And to be completely honest, I’m really not that big of a fan of taking a 3-0 pitch. IMO, sometimes that’s the best pitch you’re gonna see in a week. But, how many times do you see a hitter (especially one who’s maybe not that good or is struggling) take a 3-0 fastball down the heart of the plate only to see that hitter have to then shift into a more defensive approach which causes them to swing at a breaking ball or be late on a fastball. Then, with a 3-2 count, the hitter has absolutely no idea what’s coming and they often swing at a pitch in their eyes or a slider in the dirt.
This all could have been eliminated if the hitter simply hit the 3-0 fastball.
Sometimes I despise baseball “rules”.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jun 14, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
maybe I dreamed this
but I recall reading somewhere that the 0-0 count had the highest overall batting average of any of the other counts, This seems counter-intuitive in that you would think it would be the 2-0 or 3-1 counts (the “cripples”),
Did I dream this? or maybe I just wish it were so?
It hasn't been true for the Cardinals
at least not in 2009. 3-1 is the best count at BA/SLG of .358/.792 while 2-0 is next at .364/.697. 0-0 is .289/.534. All the combinations with 2 strikes are bad with 3-2 being best at .238/.378. On 3-0 the ball has only been put in play six times in 81 opportunities.
Pretty similar story in 2008, but 2-0 and 3-1 are a little closer.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
right
but on 0-0 and 3-0, the idea is to look for a pitch in your wheelhouse. You don’t just swing at the first pitch you can hit, you swing at the first pitch if you can drive it. It’s very frustrating to see first-pitch swings that result in rolling over on the ball and grounding to 2B.
This philosophy also applies a lot more to a guy like Albert than a guy like thursty. If albert gets a good pitch, best case, he breaks a window across the street. if thursty gets a good pitch, best case, he doubles into the gap. The cost of them making outs is the same, but the benefit of swinging away is higher for albert. A thursty walk is almost as valuabe as the best-case thursty swing-away, so he should take more pitches. Especially 2-0 and 3-0.
Thursty should NEVER bunt 2-0 (unless he sees the 3B tying his shoes, or something).
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
One could argure it applies more to a guy like Thruston.
Albert is a much better hitter so a good pitch for Albert to hit is not necessarily a good pitch to anyone else. For a guy like Thruston, not only is the chance of seeing a hittable pitch less, so is the chance he’s able to lay off a tough pitch that’s un-hittable or is able to spoil a 2 strike pitch that’s in the zone but is un-hittable.
In other words, I care less if Albert passes up a hittable pitch than if Thurston does because Albert is an exceptional hitter and Thurston isn’t.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
not sure I understand.
Especially on 3-0; thursty is at best going to hit a single or a double, and if he swings, the odds of getting a hit are less than one in 3. For thursty, a walk is indeed almost as good as a hit, so why would we want him to put his fate in the hands of the GOB?
Anyway, if it’s grooved, I won’t be too critical. A pitch right down the middle should be hammered. but it’s the wrong thing to do to swing at a pitcher’s pitch to start off an at-bat. I’d rather he strike out than swing in that case.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
That's kind of what i'm talking about.
Basically what I’m talking about is “not-taking” on a 3-0 count. Don’t treat it like it’s just any ol’ count. Make it be a fastball down the pipe. (I’m realizing I wasn’t completely clear when I originally wrote this).
Anyway, yes you are correct. A walk for Thurston is definitely as good as a hit. But, he has to gain that walk, and typically I wouldn’t think a pitcher would just give up on him like some might when falling behind Albert. Plus, let’s say he does take on 3-0 and it’s a 90 mph fastball down the heart of the plate (this happens much more than it should, imo). Now, you’re counting on him to either lay off something that might be a strike, might not and if he then gets in to a 3-2 count, all bets are off.
So, what I’m trying to say (and I realize I may be getting confusing again) is I’d think his best bet at getting on base is to hit a 3-0 fastball over the plate as opposed to taking that pitch and then relying on his “hitting skills” to either work a walk or get a hit in either a 3-1 or 3-2 count.
I understand I could be wrong. Just understand my only stance here is to not take the bat out of a lesser hitters hands simply because the count is 3-0. The pitcher usually comes with a very hittable fastball there (it’s virtually never off speed or breaking). If it’s not to his liking, take it. But, he has to have the option to jump on a fastball.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Striking out vs htting the ball.
Obviously, this is based on the situation. Striking out with a runner on first or something like that is obviously better than hitting into a DP, but if there’s no one one, I want the guy attempting to get on. I don’t care if it’s by hit or walk. But, by swinging at a fastball over the plate is a good way at getting on base as opposed to taking and relying on Thurston’s skills to beat the pitcher in less favorable (and predictable) counts.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
just b/c it's in the strike zone
doesn’t mean they should be swinging at it. They need to be looking for their pitch and, if they get it, it’s ok to be aggressive. But just to swing to avoid an 0-1 count doesn’t help you at all.
Skip isn't allowed a cold streak?
as of June 2nd, his OBP was .353. I guess with the position change, and sub par defense, any cold spell is going to be magnified and criticized a little more. His OBP is, right now, the lowest it’s been all season and against lefties this year, his OBP is .341. Right now, skip schumaker and the few plays he may not make, is one of my lesser worries on this team.
How did the pig corner the breakfast market?
Santana down
Haren and Lincecum next
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 14, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Cards will make a clean sweep...
of the major awards. You heard here first. Pujols and Rasmus are currently leading in the MVP and ROY races, and Carpenter has a strong finish in him. Santana tanked today, Haren will be shipped to the AL for prospects in July… That leaves Cain and Lincecum.
Skip's been the whipping boy on here since he debuted a few years back
And every time he gets ripped on, he hits .300 again ho-hum. So keep on hatin, I say.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Skip's an odd case
he was seemingly brought up in 2007 (according to the PD) as possible trade bait. We were told to stomach him playing instead of other OF’ers at Memphis because Skip’s purpose was to show he could play at the MLB level and then be dealt.
Then, he somehow became entrenched in the team’s longterm plans. His high batting average is probably what did it. His Opening Day ‘ball off his head’ play probably biases my opinion of his defense.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
if his only good stat is batting average
that’s not saying a whole lot
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
if you think
I’m “hatin” on Skip, you might want to read it again… or read it the first time. I’m forever astounded by the comments of those who feel that certain players are off-limits and should be free from any criticism whatsoever. It’s not beyond the bounds to say he needs to walk more. I’m sorry to have offended the head cheerleader in the Skip Schumaker Fan Club.
your joking right?
there’s no way in hell Skipp has been anyone whipping boy. there are many, MANY more players that can be called a whipping boy, but Skip is not one of them.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
OT...sort of.
Cubs fired their hitting coach Gerald Perry today. I’m not sure what this is supposed to accomplish other than being a sacrificial lamb. He was their hitting coach the last two years and I think I remember them having one of the better offenses in the league those years.
FWIW, they replaced him with Von Joshua and I have absolutely no idea who that is but in looking up his B-R page, I see he posted a career line of .273, .306, .380, .686 over 10 seasons not that that really means anything though.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
MLB STarter ERA
They just put the stats up on the Cubs broadcast. Cubs have best starter ERA in the majors. Cards are 4th. I did not know that.
Just an FYI-make sure you watch tonight, because if Carpenter’s on, he could set a new high in strikeouts. The Indians strike out a ton-heck, Shoppach catches Lee, and he’s good for 3 or 4 K’s all by himself.
Just an aside, I made a little bet with one of my sons before the season started that Ted Lilly was going to step up this year and be a surprise contender for the Cy Young Award. My reasoning? He’s been above average for several years, he’s capable of adjusting as he goes along, he’s a fierce competitor, he’s never had a “career year” and the Cubs NEEDED him to step up big, and he’d be up to the challenge. I’m sure I jinxed him now. If I win, he does the laundry for one whole week. If he wins (he picked Edinson Volquez) he gets a 50 dollar QT gas card.
sdrone, the Cubs bats done died. The pitching has been outstanding, though. I think the Cardinals have gone through that too.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I hope you both lose.
Although, I really don’t understand the parameters of your wager. Do these guys have to win the Cy or just be contenders? Either way, I’d prefer neither the Cubs or Reds had a Cy Young contender, but if I had to root for one, I’m hoping your son wins. He needs the gas card and besides, he didn’t pick a cub. ;-)
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
The parameters are simply which pitcher ends up with the most Cy Young votes.
I like Ted Lilly, glove throwing and all, Cubness and all. He’s a pitcher that actually goes out there and pitches. Heck, he’s even learned how to handle the bat. He looks like if he wasn’t pitching, he’d be stocking the shelves at Home Depot to boot.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I always thought if Lilly looked as if he wasn't pitching
he’d spend most of his time cleaning a rifle that he had named Suzanne and they’d talk about how one of these days rest of the wolrd would learn to “listen to his ideas”. Then he’d put on his mother’s nightgown and go to bed.
I just see a psychopath behind those eyes.
But, I have to agree that he’s as good a bet as any to be a Cy Young contender and you’re reasoning seems to be spot on.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
by Tackle Box on Jun 14, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
hey it's jill
nice sig
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Yes. Welcome back jillsinmo
We’ve missed your impassioned posts on young players. I think momup has taken over as the honorary VEB Card’s mom.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
That's funny.
I just needed to quit for awhile. I’m still mad at the Cardinals management. Across the board. This ain’t the place to be for me now
I put my energy into my own kids, my fantasy team, and Moo would be so proud if he could see the stellar lesson plan I helped write for “Click, Clack, Moo Cows That Type”—it will be used for labor/management studies in 4th grade.
Bye again.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I love watching them not hit
Especially Soriano.
Unfortunately they pulled it out today.
OT...again.
Not to completely go all cubs bash-ie today, but I just ran across this gem on mlbtr.com.
Want to complain about the Cards converting players from pitchers to hitters or outfielders to infielders or catchers to pitchers or converted catchers to pitchers back to catchers that will probably convert back to pitcher, well the cubs are going even further.
Miami linebacker Glenn Cook was surprised when the Cubs drafted him in the 48th round because he hasn’t played baseball in six years.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
"Cook hadn't seen a pitch or run the bases since 11th grade."
Though statistically, it could be saying something about this year’s draft talent as much as Cubs scouting. Who knows how guys make it up the boards…
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
HAHA
that is awesome.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions
in my opinion
skip should be a guy off the bench, not a starter (same with duncan)
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions
top of the 9th, 4-4
Hoffman’s in a bit of trouble. 2 on and 1 out.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
get to the hoff!
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
5-4
Hoffman gives up his first run of the season on an RBI single by AJ whatever. Go White Sox! (even though I hate them.)
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
yes
go sox! beat them brewcrewers
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I forgot this game was on tv.
I wasn’t wanting to mess around with mlb.tv.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Also,
cubs/twins tied at 2 heading into the 9th.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
*eats a twinkie for luck*
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and no, she didn't say it.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That's so bcb.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
I've been overusing that one, myself.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
probably
he also hurt his knee earlier in the season, and gave up 4 runs in his first game back after the injury.
it also seems like umpires are doing a better job of not giving him the called strike on sliders thrown 6 inches outside. But I’ve only watched him pitch a few times.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Sox win!
We’re back in first!
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
You know this post...
got me thinking… Didn’t danup promise us that Schu would never be replacement level and Daric Barton would be a HOFer. Haven’t much from ol’ danup on this lately…
Are you thinking of LBoros, maybe?
FWIW, Schu IS playing below replacement-level this year…
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
oh no...
did you read danup’s previous blog? It was a Skip hate-fest and at one point I think he argued that even if Barton was the worst rightfielder in the game, his bat would be worth it.
As for Skip, stick him in left and he’s above replacement – maybe even rising to the level of average.
Alright Twinks.
Let’s get a DP ball and head to free baseball.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
although, Theriot will probably hit the ball in the air.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
When they win, the FIRST thing I do is
hit the mute button.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
speaking of terrible managerial decisions
why the hell was Jesse Crain pitching the ninth inning in a tie ball game?
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Obviously
they were holding back Nathan to get the save.
Although, Nathan might have been unavailable today now that I think about it…but I’m not positive.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
Jesse Crain = Izzy?
His gameday likeness is uncanny.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 14, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions
new nickname
“bad izzy”.
Speaking of izzy, he apparently went on the 60-day DL today, and is probably done.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
that really sucks
I was hoping the Rays would get back to the series and izzy would have one more chance at glory.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
OT rev 7
Stros vs Dbacks, BB pitching, down 2 runs, one out, men on first and second; double steal, felipe lopez doesn’t cover second. D’oh.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
is Arizona's pitcher
any relation to Bostons Bill Buckner?
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
no
and only related to Atlanta’s Brian Barton through circumstance.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
not Blaine Boyer
Billy Buckner, the first pitcher.
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
BB guns
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/4/20/846252/so-long-crabman#14466080
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Tonights lineup per Goold on stltoday.com
Brendan Ryan, SS
Rick Ankiel, LF
Albert Pujols, 1B
Ryan Ludwick, RF
Nick Stavinoha, DH
Yadier Molina, C
Colby Rasmus, CF
Tyler Greene, 3B
Skip Schumaker, 2B
pitcher: Chris Carpenter, RHP
Looks like Tony read only half of today’s article.
Colby in center
I approve of this lineup.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jun 14, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
lefty on the mound
so I’m ok w/ Colby hitting 7th. I don’t know at what point he gets Ankiel out of the 2 hole. He just has no business hitting higher than 4th in this lineup.
Hmm, I look forward to watching this
after getting screwed out of the Cards game yesteday ’cause Fox played the White Sox game here in Chicagoland.
Imagine this lineup against LHP....and weep for what might have been
Brendan Ryan, 2B
Colby Rasmus CF
Albert Pujols, 1B
Ryan Ludwick, RF
Troy Glaus, 3B
Rick Ankiel, LF
Joe Mather, DH
Khalil Greene, SS (Spring Training Version)
Yadier Molina, C
pitcher: Chris Carpenter, RHP
Best laid plans….
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 14, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Sprint Training
Glaus didn’t do anything though. But there was hope, so I’ll give you that.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I saw this on fb and thought
I like it, but would prefer Rasmus moved up ahead of Stavinoha. But, I’m fine with it overall.
I have a very, umm...photographic brain. A lot like Ansel Adams but in color and with a lot more, uh.....insertion and pubic hair.
because the GOB hate us.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
i hate those bastards
is he really on the DL again?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
7 day DL
but no reason given at Memphis Redbirds site
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
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