Ankiel's "Hot" Streak
So it's been said that Rick Ankiel has turned things around. Has he really?
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS:
2009 (.260/.324/.458/.782)
Apr 6 - Jun 1 (.221/.299/.358/.657)
Jun 2 - Present (.359/.405/.692/1.097)
Sure looks like it. Has he had any other 10 game span in 2009 that matches up?
Apr 21 - Apr 30 (.364/.421/.667/1.008)
Yup; that's pretty close. So we're not out of the woods yet. He could tailspin into another month-long drought. The following are the outcomes of the result-pitches he's seen over the past 11 games.
Jun 12: fastball (groundout), fastball (groundout), fastball (single), fastball (walk)
Jun 11: fastball (single), curveball (SO), curveball (single), changeup (single), fastball (SO)
Jun 10: fastball (groundout), changeup (popout), fastball (triple), changeup (double), fastball (HR)
Jun 09: fastball (single), slider (double), intentional walk, fastball (lined out)
Jun 08: slider (SO)
Jun 07: fastball (groundout), changeup (groundout), fastball (SO), two-seam fastball (groundout)
Jun 06: slider (groundout), sinker (walk), slider (HR), changeup (flyout)
Jun 05: fastball (groundout), slider (SO), slider (groundout), slider (double)
Jun 04: fastball (single), fastball (flyout), slider (SO)
Jun 03: slider (groundout), slider (flyout), slider (popout), sinker (double)
Jun 02: slider (flyout), changeup (SO), changeup (groundout), changeup (double)
42 plate appearances, 6 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HRs, 3 walks (one intentional), 7 Strikeouts (16.7%)
Of his hits (14), only six were on fastballs... fewer than half. Ankiel also has 8 extra-base hits in this span while only amassing 17 for the entire 2009 season. He only had 9 extra-base hits in his first 29 games which means that he's almost doubled his tally in the last 11 games (40 games total). That is somewhat encouraging, right?
If I could do it all over again (well technically, I could... but... no), I would have taken a look at the pitches right before Ankiel managed to get a hit on a fastball to see if he has been taking off-speed pitches to draw more fastball offerings. A quick glance over the past couple of games makes me wonder if the Indians know Rick Ankiel at all; of the 27 pitches that he was delivered in yesterday's game, 21 were four-seam fastballs (78%). Compare that to the Marlins whose 24 pitches to Ankiel only featured 11 four-seamers (46%). Then again, he went 3-5 that day.
It's been easy to see that Ankiel has been lost at the plate for much of the year. In 2007 & 2008, Ankiel welcomed curveballs. Respectively, he generated 2.59 and 1.61 runs above average on that pitch (per 100 pitches) while only .27 and .09 runs above average each of those two years on fastballs. In 2009, Rick's generating 1.36 runs above average on fastballs (per 100) while curveballs suddenly make him tremble (-5.7 runs below average per 100).
Not really sure if I have a point here. Just throwing around some information. Thoughts?
3 recs |
18 comments
Comments
there's no guarantee he's going to keep this up all year
he’s a streaky hitter, he absolutely will fall into a funk again.
but by season’s end (barring substantial DL time) he will rock a line somehwere around .270/.330/.600./.930 25/80
of course, assuming i’m right, he won’t be wearing 24 on his back in a month and a half =(
by prophetjohn on Jun 13, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
a .600 SLG% seems awfully high
that’d be almost 100 points higher than last season.
I’ll throw out my prediction of .265/.340/.490/.830, 20/75
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on Jun 13, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
around .500-.530 seems a little more realistic i guess
by prophetjohn on Jun 13, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that seems high to me too...
Zips predicts that Rick’s AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS will be .257/.316/.485/.801 the rest of the way with 15 HRs.
I think I could live with that.
by AndyB83 on Jun 14, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
month long drought
don’t forget he encountered an outfield wall three games into that drought. Using B-R from April 21 to June 12 his numbers are .295/.352./.547/.900
by ubeddie on Jun 13, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
I’m glad I didn’t realize that his numbers were this respectable dating even further back. And I’m glad I didn’t so I stopped pouring through Gameday logs at June 2nd
by AndyB83 on Jun 14, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I'm glad I didn't. And I'm glad I didn't. And I'm glad I didn't.
Redundant. Sorry.
by AndyB83 on Jun 14, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ricky dick ankiel
remains difficult to figure out. this recent stretch could be good luck. ankiel is right at his career BA, but is over his career BABIP at this point in the season. he is way below is career slugging, iso and woba right now though. I think it is safe to say he is still figuring things out in the hitting world (as well as playing the outfield). he’s really hard to predict because he was trained as a pitcher and is still making the conversion. let’s not forget that he had 25 home runs last season though, and he had a significant injury. perhaps his second half will be on a tear?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 12:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling he will end up being a win over replacement level again this year
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
every time i see woba, i think of cabo wabo tequila
is that wrong?
i’m just finally glad Dick is no longer useless with a bat in his hands. it was getting, oh what’s the word? ugly, yeah lets call it that. ugly. i knew he was hurt, but still, that was not fun to watch.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 14, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's amazing how fast he raised his batting average
but he was hurt again this year, so he’s still hard to predict
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he strikes me as one of those guys that people always say
“if he wasn’t always hurt, he’d have been one of the greats.”
so yeah, he’s hard to pin down. plus he’s only been doing this OF thing for what, 4 years now? it’s amazing how far he’s come in such a short amount of time.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 14, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ankiel
will always be frustrating to watch as a hitter. I see him as a streak hitter who can carry a club for short periods at a time but subject to prolonged slumps. At a reasonable price he is worth keeping; if not let him go to the highest bidder.
by ridgesee on Jun 14, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This last off-season...
I was ready to trade Ankiel… didn’t think we had a shot at retaining him with Boras as an agent; and with some promising young OFs in the system, didn’t seem like it would make much sense.
But if this recent production doesn’t continue, he may price himself into our range. I’d prolly rather him be productive and price himself into another market. Because this putrid offense needs it.
by AndyB83 on Jun 14, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm kind of at a loss with ankiel
really have no clue what he’s going to do week-in, week-out, whether he’s slumping, hurt, whether he’s been lucky or unlucky, whether he’s the real deal or if he’s never going to turn into a proper player….
I suppose his ZIPS RoS line looks about right.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 6:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs




















