Rasmus is really, really good
This is just a short post dedicated to how well Rasmus has played so far this year.
Before the season started, this site was divided about where Rasmus should play this year. Some wanted him to stay in the minors given that we already had tremendous depth in the outfield and we didn't want to start his arbitration clock early. Others believed his was ready to play everday and wanted to see him in the majors. He ended up making the club as part of a 4 man outfield rotation. Over a third of the way into the season, he has been our most productive outfielder so far... and it's not even close.
After his recent hot streak, he now has a slash line of .269/.325/.469 in 194 at bats. That is good for a .346 wOBA and 2.6 offensive runs above average. Defensively, he has been amazing, putting up a combined 11.6 UZR rating in the OF. If you combine the two, add a positional adjustment and a replacement level adjustment based on playing time, he has added over 2 wins above a replacement level player so far.
Our other 3 outfielders, on the other hand, have been worth a combined 1.3 WAR despite having nearly 3 times more plate appearances than Rasmus. So I think it is safe to say that Rasmus will be getting the bulk of the playing time in center going forward.
ZIPS projects him to have a .329 wOBA for the rest of the season, which would make him exactly league average. Assuming he plays nearly every day, he would receive about 350 more at bats. Lets assume that his early season defensive dominance is a fluke, and his is just a +10 defender over a full season, which is what his minor league total zone numbers suggests he is. That would suggest that he would save about 5 more runs the rest of the season.
If you combine his current numbers and his *rough* projections the for the rest of the season, he would be worth roughly 4 WAR this year. That would not only make him the runaway rookie of the year, it would make it one of the best players in the league.
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Count me in the group that wanted Colby in Memphis this year.
And count me in the group that is glad he didn’t. Rasmus is scary good as a rookie. He covers a lot of ground in the outfield. He doesn’t need to hit HRs to get runs on the board he does anyway. And we haven’t really seen his running game enter into it. Though we might see a few more steals now that he is hitting behind Albert instead of infront of him.
He is only 22. His defense should get better with more time. His power should increase as his body feels out..
i just posted, but apparently forgot to press post
4 WAR is just sick for a rookie…absolutely filthy…what are some of the best rookie WAR numbers?
i do wish colby would steal a few more bags…he doesn’t seem to be in position to do it a lot, and when he is, tony doesnt seem to want to send him
I said it a month ago
He’s our best OFer.
Love watching him play.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
i'm just glad he was riding some pine today
can’t let the kid think his poo don’t stink
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
tony, don't you have to put together a lineup that involves nick stavinoha? yeah, i thought so.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Hopefully he doesn't forget how to take a walk once his bat cools off
He hasn’t taken one in a while, but really has no reason not to swing the bat right now with the way he’s driving the ball.
3 walks since the beginning of may, none since may 25
also only struck out 3 times in his last 12 games (34 AB’s)
"Greene over to Schumaker, on to first! Double Play!!"
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jun 12, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Preach on!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
I'd like him to take a few more walks
but other than that, I love the kid and he should start every game.
MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets
Regarding his walk totals...
His O-Swing this year is just 22.6%, which is better than league average, and it shows that he has a good eye. The reason he hasn’t walked that much is that he is swinging at way more strikes than most players as his Z-Swing is over 8% above average. He is also seeing slightly more strikes than the average player. With his recent hot streak I wouldn’t be surprised to see pitchers stay away from him a little more. Since he has shown a propensity not to swing at balls, his walk totals should rise.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
that's a lenghthier version of what I was going to say
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmm..
…so basically he’s doing what he needs to to walk. I mean, if you’re swinging at strikes anyway, you’re not going to just magically walk unless you’re dealing with a weird strikezone. I wonder if he’s seeing more strikes because other teams are willing to challenge him b/c of his cold streak and his rookie status??? Maybe, I don’t know.
At any rate, Rasmus does need to get on base at a higher rate, and still seems to be trying to pull too many pitches. BUT…the dude is 22 years old and is playing a significant amount for one of the better teams (record wise) in the NL. At this point, this is kind of nitpicking.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 12, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet the high strike rate
is a result of batting ahead of Pujols for much of the first part of the season.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
he's quickly becoming one of my favorite cards
22 years old and hitting cleanup for albert pujols? that’s pretty impressive. he doesn’t afraid of anything
Me fail english?
That’s unpossible!
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Jun 12, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
My cat's breath smells like cat food.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
I bit my wookie.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
what I'd really like to see
is some kind of OF chart that shows a league average defender, and how much more ground Rasmus covers. such a chart wouldn’t be accurate until deep into next season, but it could be a fun visual aid
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 2:20 AM EDT reply actions
I think I might be able to do that for you...
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 12, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
that would be awesome
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Just imagine a circle
Then imagine another circle, with a diameter about 30x the size of the original circle, encompassing the original circle.
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Jun 12, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
So rec'd
it’s not even funny.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
what would be really funny would be to show rasmus's range projected onto
the field, with duncan’s range on one side and stavinoha’s on the other, then compare that outfield to an average cf w/ two average corner outfielders.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Heh. Here's another idea.
The Colby effect; find a certain amount of badness of range (BOR) of corner outfielders that, when combined with a Colby Rasmus in center, evens out into a league-average outfield. It’s kind of like how Albert Pujols + replacement level slash lines give you the equivalent of two really good hitters.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
imagine skip w/o albert next to him
albert is saving a lot of the 2B balls it seems, just imagine an average or below defender at 1B with Skippy
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Colby
IS the outfield if Duncan is on one side and Dunn is on the other
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 13, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
that reminds me
No one’s calculated APs yet?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 13, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
ha ha
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think his defensive numbers remain VERY approximate so far
but I’m not sure I agree with ZIPS – to the eye, at least, he’s seemed pretty unlucky so far. He seems to make a LOT of hard contact with the ball – may just be ascertainment bias, but a lot of the GB and FB i’ve seen him give up this year have been tattooed (similar to Ludwick, really). I can see his BA going up over the course of the year, and I think the power’s real (I’d probably set the over/under at about 20HR).
I’m guessing ZIPS is perhaps lower than his “real” skills because it’s taking into account his low BB% (as you said, that will hopefully climb a bit once pitchers start to challenge him less), although I suppose it’s possible that as (if?) his BB% climbs, he’ll be getting fewer long hits…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
ZIPS regresses to the mean a lot with rookies
Really, even though we know he is better, history tells us that Rasmus will probably regress.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 12, 2009 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Good Summary
It has been great to see him develop but everyone needs to remember that things can change in a hurry – hopefully he keeps on clicking. He has all the tools but the most impressive thing about him to me is his swing – it is exceptionally quick and fast and he generates big time power. They have moved him around in the line-up and I kept wondering how long it would be before they realized that he was one of their best RBI guys. In the beginning they talked about wanting him to bunt more and while he can do that effectively do you really want to see him bunting? Same thing with the walks – if they give him a pitch to hit you want him swinging the bat. What you don’t want is for him to expand his strike zone.
His next immediate area of improvement needs to be hitting against lefties. I have no doubt that he will eventually hit them but if he does not get the opportunity it may retard his progress. I am hoping he gets start s this weekend against lefties with the DH in effect and if he is successful maybe he can get it going.
Rasmus
to me, has been very impressive both as a hitter and a fielder, probably next to Pujols on the team right now. I think he should play every day in CF, at least for now to see if he can maintain his current offensive output (or close to it). I like him hitting cleanup for now to see if he can maintain his hitting in that position.
Now that his bat has come to life somewhat I would like to see Ankiel in right with Ludwick moving to left. Duncan should be the odd man out.
The only thing I disagree with is the amount of negative comments about Ankiel’s defense that appear on this blog. I personally, have not decided that Rasmus is a better CF than Ankiel, although I do say he should be playing there and in the long run I think will be a better hitter.
What makes
you decide when someone is better than someone else? Because by every single metric, Rasmus is a better fielder than Ankiel. Don’t care for metrics? Well, even by looking at him he’s better. He’s smooth, he’s talented, he glides to the ball. He covers an insane amount of ground. He doesn’t turn every single play into a two-act drama. What more can you ask?
Ankiel is a good fielder, but only in RF.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I see what you say, Spants
and I’ve seen it too, but don’t get your underwear in your crack. I’m just saying that I’m maybe a little slower than most in making firm judgements. I’ve seen Ankiel do some some things Rasmus has not. but I’m sure I probably will.. he is smoother than Ankiel, I’’ agree.
What
about my comment indicated that I was worked up in anyway? I asked you what your criteria were. I used two different criteria to support the “Rasmus is better than Ankiel” position.
I don’t get why you think everyone is cranky.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I'm not actually.
I find your behavior bizarre. You bait people.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Bizarre!
Old and a little cranky, maybe…but bazarre, no. Actually what keyed me post was the fact that I’ve constant seen Ankiel lambasted for a couple months for his defense when to me it is uncalled for. Rasmus aside, Ankiel is a good centerfielder and deserves to be regonized as one…and I have seen a lot of centerfielders.
ankiel's actually not a good centerfielder.
he has a great arm and he makes simple plays dramatic.
and replying to a simple post that didn’t attack you by saying someone’s got her “underwear in her crack” is obnoxious in a big way.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
"Ankiel is actually not a good centerfielder"
You just determined that by yourself. I guess I just know enough to discuss anything with you. Wish I was that smart etc,etc and so on.
Actually, he probably used these things called statistics
to help determine his opinion.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
to be honest, Ank is not that bad of a CF, he just isn’t in the same class as Rasmus is (i.e., does not have the speed or the jumps)
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
come on guys lay off
he didn’t say anything too out of order.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 12, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
YOUR OUT OF ORDER
THIS WHOLE COURT ROOM IS OUT OF ORDER
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
That's debatable.
And subjective.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
your mom is subjective!
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 13, 2009 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions
that's pretty mature
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 13, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
your mom is mature!
high-five Felonius
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 13, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
your dad
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
YOUR dad!
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 15, 2009 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Your sister!
4B - beer baseball bands blog
No results found for comming:
Did you mean Coming (in dictionary) or Commin (in reference)?
Dictionary suggestions: Coming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 15, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
somebody already gave you a polite, thoughtful and factual response.
you snapped on her. i didn’t think another one would help.
if you want to ignore statistics, then we can only relay our opinions.
i vote for rasmus being a much better CF than ankiel.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Seconded!
I didn’t actually look at anything to back up my opinion. I just really had a driving need to agree with somebody.
[someone has finally arrived at the fully-lit home]
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
I think he just took issue with you saying that Ank was not a good CF
it’s arguable that he not a bad one either, which means that there’s a lot of grey area here. I didn’t like his underwear quote though. pretty lame.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree
i get sick of people berating ankiel for his solid defense. he doesn’t have the best range and sometimes he doesn’t read the ball well, but he has one of the best arms in the game and has incredibly soft hands. the only reason i would complain about ank over raz in center is because that means raz is sitting in favor of dunc
let me amend this post
that said, rasmus is definitely the better cf. he should get the bulk of the playing time (essentially starting every day in cf) and ank should make the majority of his starts in rf where he is a plus defender as opposed to an average defender.
but i still think the ank d hate is uncalled for. for what we has last year, he stepped up very well and filled a hole
where's the "hate"? i don't see anybody saying "you suck, rick!"
i see people saying “rasmus is much better than rick.” which is true.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
really?
you don’t post here much do you
they may not use those exact words. but “he’s worthless; send him to AAA; DFA him” aren’t much better
rick put up a .105/.190/.158 line in May.
i think that had something to do with some angst towards him.
i do remember a lot of people saying (including me) that he needed to continue his DL time with a rehab stint in memphis, which is not saying that he stinks. it was saying that he was probably still hurt. i can’t recall a “dfa ankiel” post.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
yeah, his offense was terrible for most of the season
not really a reason to bash his defense. i constantly hear about how he’s a minus defender or a bad defender, which just isn’t true. he’s clearly at least league average in cf.
he's clearly not.
lifetime UZR/150 in CF (over 1128 innings) = -6.5
for reference, chris duncan’s lifetime UZR in LF (over 1793 innings) = -7.9
that’s not dogging ankiel, that’s not saying he “sucks,” that’s just pointing out a real and viable measure of defense.
ankiel is not close to being an average defender in center.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
sorry to rehash an old argument
but if uzr says that ank is only marginally better than duncan, credibility definitely needs to be called into question. ank is better in every defensive category than duncan, but he’s only worth one more defensive run over an entire season? bullshit
i’m not going to pretend to be some expert sabermetrician, but i know enough about uzr to know that there is plenty of estimation and calculation based on human observation. this isn’t taking raw numbers, plugging them into equations and getting solid statistics out of it
sure, uzr is useful for getting a general idea, but for trying to categorically compare all cfers in baseball and rank them within individual runs, it’s incredibly flawed.
sorry but my bullshit meter is going crazy. ankiel is miles ahead of duncan in range, speed, arm strength, arm accuracy, soft handedness and any other defensive measure i might be forgetting
that's fine and i agree
he’s a better rfer and that’s where he belongs, especially with our possession of raz
but to say that he is duncan’s cf equivalent is nothing short of absurd
no it isn't
A “Duncan equivalent” in center would be roughly -16 runs due to the positional adjustment.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 14, 2009 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions
no
that would be duncan in center.
duncan’s cf equivalent would cost as many runs in cf as duncan does in lf
Semantic bullshit.
The positional adjustment dictates that Ankiel is a far better defender than Duncan despite similar UZR ratings because the position he posts those ratings in is more difficult.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
More importantly what is your point,
because I took it as some nitpick on the meaning of the phrase “Duncan’s equivalent in CF” which could be taken to mean either Duncan’s LF defense in CF or a similarly graded defender in the different position. Then when you were called on it you switched from the one you were called on to the other one. Hence semantic bullshit.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
point out the switch
regardless, the disparity between “Duncan’s LF defense in CF or a similarly graded defender in the different position” is big enough to warrant my specifying what i meant and also significant enough for me to still feel that you don’t understand the meaning of the word “semantic”
by prophetjohn on Jun 15, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll bite,
what am I not understanding?
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
Yeah
This is pretty easy to get. -7 in center = above average in left.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
exactly
which is a pretty big difference. so me clarifying my position can’t really accurately be called semantics
let me break it down. duncan in left= -7; ankiel in center= -6; duncan is an awful left fielder, ankiel is not an awful center fielder. therefore, i do not believe that ankiel is duncan’s center field equivalent (not i don’t believe that ankiel is duncan’s equivalent plugged into center field, which i obviously don’t believe either)
i think the point i was trying to make is that duncan is probably worse than -7 in left and ankiel is better than -6 in center. meaning that there is a large enough margin of error that duncan and ankiel are not one removed from each other per their respective positions
No I'm pretty sure that Ankiel is just as bad
compared to the average center fielder as Duncan is compared to the average left fielder. Of course Ankeil looks better than Duncan, because he is, but he’s not very good compared to the average center fielder.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 15, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
okay
well, i’m not going to go back into the merits of uzr again, so we’ll just agree to disagree
i think ankiel is roughly league average in cf. you think he is as bad in cf as duncan is in left
How do you explain the very good numbers Ank has posed in CF this season?
I think it’s fair to say that you’re proclaiming the conclusion that Ank is a very bad CF based on inconclusive information. He battled injury last season, and I think we can all visualize the way an abdominal injury could limit range. His extremely bad numbers in LF last season were put up under similar circumstances and no one would claim he projects as anything but a plus defender in LF.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
I just don't see how you are presenting any evidence for this.
I don’t think any sane person would argue that Duncan is better than Ankiel, but you are saying that Ankiel is basically better than he has been graded by UZR/150 by comparing him to Dunc which is not a valid comparison (in my opinion it’s still just a semantic trick trying to get people to say Ankiel=Duncan and then disagreeing with them). I actually tend to agree with you but I think it would profit you more to bring up the relatively small sample of Ank in center or the injuries he has played through and the improvement he has shown this season.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
well, your opinion is wrong
and i think everything has already been said about uzr and i’ve stated my desire not to rehash the argument. my point being that there is a large enough margin of error not to trust it down to an individual run or two or three
I don't want to get too deep into this argument
Other than to say in 2-4 years every person on this board will likely be eager to agree and go on record saying UZR/150 is very crude. Not saying it is completely irrelevant or that the numbers count for nothing. Just think we’re several steps behind on defense and better days appear to be ahead soon.
I don’t think Ankiel gets very great jumps, but isn’t a complete embarrassment in the field either. Rasmus is better, both by the eye and the stats. Today notwithstanding.
And I wonder if, as the sample gets bigger, the numbers show Schumaker isn’t a complete disaster at 2nd also. Just a comment from left field there – pardon the pun.
by Merry CRasmus on Jun 16, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
i'd like to see
a stat that takes the following into consideration
1) amount of time the ball takes to get from the bat to the ground
2) where the fielder is when the bat makes contact
3) how long it takes the fielder to get to the ball
4) where the ball is when the fielder gets to the ball relative to where it landed
this way there is no human estimation, it accounts for how close the player is to making the play if he doesn’t make it and it takes batted ball type, and positioning into consideration
not that i have any idea how to take those numbers and construct them into a defensive metric. but i’m sure someone does
by prophetjohn on Jun 16, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
HIT fx will help with most of that
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 16, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
i don’t think we’re far off from having a stat like that. but getting the numbers are a lot easier (at least for my anti-mathematical mind) to get than to organize into a meaningful stat
by prophetjohn on Jun 16, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
There are guys who are very good at that
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Small box!
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Jun 17, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget the positions
A UZR of 0 is exactly average for a given year, so it’s a measurement AGAINST PEERS AT THE SAME POSITION.
LF comes right after DH and 1B on the defensive spectrum, and it’s no secret that – after DH and 1B – it’s a place where many managers attempt to hide all-bat-no-glove players (e.g. Adam Dunn).
CF is a premium defensive position, and looking around the league I don’t think you’re going to find anyone remotely resembling Adam Dunn – unless the team has lost the plot.
Being “below average” at a position like CF, 2B, or SS could mean you’re a good defender at a tough position – just not as good as your defensive specialist peers. And being below average at 1B or LF could mean that you can’t out-field a lunk.
(and a CF moving to LF should put up better defensive numbers because it’s an easier position, while a LF moving to CF should put up worse ones)
yes, that's a good clarification.
thanks.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
exactly
i know it’s per position. i still fail to believe that most cfers are more comparable to beltran and rasmus than ankiel. even if you put full faith in uzr, ankiel isn’t even -1 defensive run. add in a margin of error and you have an average cfer, not an abysmal one which the dunc comparison implies
Average is always 0 – you’re measured against your peers. If they suck, you’ll look better. If they rock, you’ll look worse. If you’re below 0, you’re below average, so if one was to put full faith in the accuracy of UZR and presumed balanced positioning he is below average.
I’d say being among the worst LFs would be like being among the ugliest construction workers, while being among the worst CFs would be like being among the ugliest models. The comparisons aren’t directly comparable just because they’re both considered statistically below average.
you're missing the point
if the only players that can be accurately called average are ones with uzr of 0 (meaning they are exactly league average) the term “average” is pointless. no one is going to be exactly average. if that’s your argument, then it’s completely ridiculous and you can disregard the rest of my post
now, if you’re not defining average in such an absurdly narrow way, you have to draw the line somewhere. i draw the line at one win. more than one win=plus defender. less than -1 win=minus defender
by prophetjohn on Jun 12, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
if the only players that can be accurately called average are ones with uzr of 0
I never said that, I noted that average is 0 only for the purposes of validating that a by-the-letter interpretation of UZR would mean a number below 0 is below average – even if the average defender at a given position happens to be pretty good.
In 2008 15/121 “qualified” fielders had a UZR equal to or greater than 10.5 runs (roughly equal to one win) and again 15/121 equal to or less than -10.5 runs.
there's no problem saying uzr is imperfect.
it is. 1200 innings is not an ideal sample.
however, even where it’s imperfect, it’s still useful. 1200 innings is something. if he’s -6.5 runs off of average by UZR after 1200 innings, he may not be exactly -6.5. but i think it’s safe to say he’s a net negative CF.
regardless, to get back to the original point, people who say rick ankiel is not a great CF or an average CF are not just spewing bullshit. they have a real basis for what they say, whether you agree with it or not.
saying ankiel is “clearly at least league average in cf” is not right.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
he may be
a net negative defender. my point is that it’s not by much. league average defenders aren’t only guys who have a uzr of 0. does uzr of 6.5 make a plus defender? not in my opinion.
ankiel may be on the lower spectrum of average cfers, but he is an average cfer unless you apply and unrealistically narrow definition of “average”
to clarify my definition
to be a plus defender someone should be worth at least 1 win
and be a minus defender, they should cost at least one win.
if it’s not costing a win over the course of a season, the difference is negligible
obviously, your personal definition
of “at LEAST average” is your personal definition. i won’t haggle about your personal semantics.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I will
agree with you that Ankiel has talent, giftedness and amazing athletic ability. He’s made a remarkable transition in a short amount of time. Makes you wonder what kind of player he would’ve been if he’d never came up as a pitcher.
That said…
The guy has only been a position player for three years. Colby has been a CFer his entire life.
In one regard, the comparisons between Duncan and Ankiel ARE apt: both came late to the outfield game. Both are better than one would expect. Both of them botch and make web gems out of routine plays. Now, Ankiel is more gifted and athletic than Duncan, and he’s got a WAY better arm, but he’s not a good CFer. He’s entertaining and captivating, but that doesn’t mean he’s good.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I'll never forget those throws from the warning track in colorado though
I’m not sure if anyone else could do that
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 13, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Like I said,
he’s talented.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I think it's fair to point out,
that much of the Ankiel hate has been out there because of his play in 2009. However he has been a good CF and an above average defender overall in 2009. His range is dramatically higher than his previous season (when he was suffering from an abdominal injury among others), and his arm has not been challenged as much this season.
The hate should be directed at his May offense, because he was just horrible. The hate can also be directed at the opportunity cost of Rasmus losing PT because TLR cannot just make Raz and Ludwick automatic everyday players for some reason. The hate should not be directed solely at Rick’s defense because the jury is still out on that. The UZR samples are still below reliable thresholds and for much of the time he was injured. He could easily be an average to slightly above average CF, and while that doesn’t make him nearly as good as Colby is at CF, don’t hate the playa. Hate the game.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
for comps, rather than abstract numbers:
last year, screening for players who had at least 750 innings in CF, rick ankiel was better than 8 players and worse than 15 in terms of UZR/150.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
how about his career numbers?
he did well when he was first starting in center in ’07, which should even things out to him being league average
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"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
i posted them above.
lifetime UZR/150 in CF (over 1128 innings) = -6.5
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
thnx
he has a lot of disparity between his different outfield positions. but UZR/150 is not perfect either
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, -8 runs
there’s not enough margin for error to consider him average?
rasmus is 20 runs better than any cfer so far this season. i got a feeling that’s not wholly accurate either and could stand to deviate by a win or so
it's actually not far off his talent level.
his minor league TZR stats which are scaled to runs like UZR show him as a +15 TZR/150 CF in 2008, and a +12 TZR/150 CF.
if you ask me, i’d put him at a solid +15 run CF.
you have to remember, though, the difference between the sample sizes for rasmus’ third of a season and rick’s (roughly) full season as a CF. I wouldn’t firmly say somebody’s UZR rating for just this season so far is even close to representative. i will bet rasmus ends up being a +15 fielder in october (or, at least, that he will scale up to a +15 over a full season).
the margin of error in rasmus’s 300 innings in CF is much bigger than that of ankiel’s 1200 innings in CF.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
you did say that he's not a good center fielder though
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
which is true.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
He's not good
he’s not terrible, either, but he’s slightly below average.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
And wow
was he a terrible fielding pitcher in 2000. I didn’t remember that.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
You,
like me, were too busy being stunned by his amazing curveball.
What? Did you think I was going to say something else?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Jun 12, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well-played.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
she is the best
the best
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
Ankiel can look more amazing
because he’s not as fast, so he has to dive for the ball to have a chance at catching it.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
but in reality
(and i’m only making this argument for the purpose of semantics)
if ankiel has to dive for a ball that raz can get to standing up (assuming that he’s just getting to the ball and not standing under it waiting — he’s not that much faster than ank) his range isn’t that much better than ank’s until he can prove that he can make the diving plays at the fullest extent of his range
/semantics
yeah
why have someone play over someone else who doesn’t need to risk getting hurt to get the same result. I’m comfortable with ank in right or left
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
there is no need, since I know
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 13, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Ankiel dives more...
…because his breaks are worse and he’s slower. Rasmus can cruise to those balls and catch them standing up. Hence the reason outstanding plays aren’t necessarily a measure of defensive goodness. Ankiel isn’t horrible, he’s probably about average. For what it’s worth, his UZR as a CF he’s give or take -4 in the past two seasons and has shown some improvement there this year. But Colby Rasmus is simply better.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 12, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
every single metric?
like rf/9? cr = 2.9; ra = 2.9
or rf/g? cr = 2.5; ra = 2.7
maybe err/r? cr = 0.1; ra = 0.0
what makes colby stand out so much is
rng/r – cr = 8.5; ra = 1.2
and somehow
arm – cr = 1.7; ra = -1.3
Fair enough.
Still, those other numbers are pretty much a wash. Colby is better and you know it.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
i do know it
absolutely. wasn’t arguing that
not entirely sure what you mean by “a wash,” but the numbers i used were the ones that make up uzr
also
anyone want to explain to me why if they are so similar in rf/g and rf/9 how that translates to colby being over half a win better on range runs above average?
i also don’t believe that colby’s arm is three runs better than rick’s
rf/g and rf/9 are two different versions of range factor. they make no adjustment for how many balls were hit to the fielder’s vicinity. they only register how many balls the fielder caught (or otherwise turned into outs). it’s a little bit like determining shaquille o’neal’s ability to shoot free throws based on how many free throws he makes per game, rather than looking at the ratio of free throws made per free throws attempted. presumably ankiel has had a few more balls hit to his area than rasmus has.
by greenback06 on Jun 14, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
that's a pretty bad analogy
but i get your point
i think given a large enough sample size, rf/g and rf/9 are reliable enough to get some sort of idea. i don’t see it being so much more inaccurate than rng/r. there are only so many direction/speed/spin combinations for a ball to come off a bat. over time you’re going to get a pretty decent average for playable balls per game over the course of a season.
it’s actually a pretty bad metric, but it’s no less reliable than the simiiar metrics couple with the human element that make up uzr
Yes UZR is flawed, but it is a good metric that is much more thorough and accurate than Range Factor. Here are a few adjustments that UZR takes into account that range factor doesn’t:
Balls in your zone
Park adjustments
Quality of batted ball
Batter handedness
Pitcher adjustments
Baserunner adjustments
So yes, over like 10,000 innings those things even out and Range Factor is just as good as UZR. However, with regards to Ankiel, we are talking about a relatively small sample size, so it is pretty much a given that those things will not even out.
You may not have liked greenback’s analogy, so here is another one that might help:
UZR is RE/24, Range Factor is RBI’s.
UZR is flawed and does have a margin of error, however, it is much, much better than Range Factor and your own subjective judgement.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 14, 2009 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions
range factor doesn’t necessarily even out, because it makes absolutely zero adjustment for the distribution of balls in play. for an example, go look at david eckstein’s rf’s. the angels’ pitching staff had been flyball prone; the 2005 cardinals had historic groundball tendencies. so guess what happened to eckstein’s range factors. he made more than an extra play per game. ok, this is less of an issue for teammates, but there’s no reason to throw that extra information away.
i don’t see the problem with analogy. i don’t think ankiel is the shaq of outfield defense, and i’m sorry if it came across that way. the point has to be driven home that a stat that counts successes without also counting failures isn’t particularly useful.
I completely agree with you
Did you not get that?
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 14, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't believe that either
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 14, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Rick's throws
Rick tends to go for the gusto, sometimes allowing the following baserunner to advance, while Colby hits the correct base
and sometimes
ank’s catches go through yadi and la rue’s legs.
i wonder how much those two errors “on rick” hurt his uzr
by prophetjohn on Jun 16, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone thinks ank is a horrible defender or anything
just that his skills probably translate better to a corner spot than to centre field. Rasmus is a career CF, a natural there, and was excellent in that position in his minor league career, so I think most of us think it’s wrong to trot ank out in CF whilst Colby sits in LF.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 12, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
basically
Rasmus is so good that he makes it look easy… which some translate to he’s not trying very hard
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Except good instead of barely above average
So probably more like JD Drew.
"I usually don’t read other peoples sigs." -Cuttah
Or Carlos Beltran.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Only if you're Steve Phillips
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think a lot of the bashing of Ankiel's defense was just a reaction to him playing in CF over Rasmus.
Not an excuse, just my 2 cents. The fact that a lot of people here think Rasmus is our best CF sort of magnifies Ankiel’s defensive faults. The result is that, even if he’s doing a good or at least passable job, it’s going to seem a lot worse.
Even if he does turn out to be good in CF I really don’t think he’s ever going to be better than Rasmus, so I don’t think it makes sense to ever put Ank in center anymore
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
Yeah. It's really just a reaction to the situation of Rasmus really being good and not getting more PT.
When Ank was an average to mediocre CF last year people loved it because the alternative was not pretty.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
cleanup roll
With Ankiel and Ludwick hitting the ball again (hopefully this 2-day trend will continue), I doubt Tony will even consider giving Rasmus the cleanup spot. Unfortunately. I’d like to see Ludwick start mashing or Rasmus start slumping before the move is made, as I too would like to see how The Big Cheese performs there, but oh well..
adding some perspective
After last night’s game, Colby has an OPS+ of 110. In all of MLB history, only 29 age-22 or younger rookies have put up an OPS+ of 110 or higher. 12 of them are in the HOF, and of the ones that aren’t, one is albert pujols, one is colby rasmus, and one is evan longoria. Only 7 players have done this since 1950.
And his numbers seem lower, to me, than they should be based on watching him hit; he’s never seemed overmatched this year, imho, and has hit into some bad luck. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t climb the list a bit before the season ends.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Jun 12, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I was gonna point out that it isn't a full season of 110 OPS+
but then I realized I agreed with your second point as well. So I’d say he’s a pretty good bet to put up at least ~800 OPS or so for the year.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
that's less fun, though.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Strange article at si.com...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joel_sherman/06/11/2009.rookies/index.html?eref=T1
The guy somehow writes an article about the NL ROY race without mentioning Jordan Zimmermann at all, or Rasmus until the second to last line.
Somehow it’s now a race between Andrew McCutcheon and Tommy Hanson. McCutcheon has played seven games and Hanson has started one. Is either of these guys going to pull a Ryan Howard? And is Rasmus or Zimmermann going manage to produce more than Taveras, who finished second behind Howard with a sub-700 ops?
that article pissed me off too. clearly written by somebody who looks at BA first.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I read one recently
that listed Rasmus as the only horse in the race…to which I went “huh?” I know he is good, and I have Cardinal colored glasses on but is there really no other candidate? Some of these ROY articles make my head hurt, people just don’t want to do research it seems.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Rasmus will have to make some noise to be heard
simply because he plays in the shadow of Albert, like all other Cardinal players.
McCutcheon is a great talent and is an electrifying talent on a team going nowhere this season who just traded their best player away. He’s got flash to his game too, he’s going to probably steal a ton of bases and hit some triples, so he’s more exciting.
I don’t see Hanson really factoring in the race at all actually.
I think it ends up being between Colby and McCutchen.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i can see gamel going on a tear and hitting a bunch of homers.
we know that homers are a sexy stat that gets weighed heavily. rasmus’s value is harder to quantify, even if it’s much (much much) greater.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
so it will probably be BA vs HR
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 12, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So Jordan Zimmerman and Colby Rasmus in that article,
are Ringo and George?
Oh right it’s a shitty article.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
colby is kind of like george.
secretly awesome.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 12, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking at first it's his lame turns at the media
But now I suspect it’s also how the media cover him. Because the Cardinals have so many new guys coming up, whenever the highlights show Rasmus, they don’t mention that he’s the star rookie. A few times here and there, but it’s not mentioned universally. People might not know he’s a rookie.
And by people, I mean ‘journalists’ who don’t do their research.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 13, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Whats funny is that immediately after Rick starts hitting again...
everyone jumps back on the dick-wagon (word play is fun). I dont think anyone was tearing his D down (I certainly wasn’t), but his offensive output before the Marlins series was AL pitcher-esque. So listen, Rasmus is a better CF than Ank. But Ank is a + OF, has good speed, good judgment (most of the time).
And again, Rick and Ras have to share the same OF as players like Dunc and Stav. Any OFer that has the ability to command CF with those two lumberjacks running around deserve some credit.
Brought to you by Karl's Jr.
I was....
I just don’t think he’s a very good CFer. He looks good doing it, but doesn’t cover a lot of ground. He’s a lot like Skip at 2B (not quite as bad as Skip, but give Skip time). He dives a lot and makes the routine plays, but he falls down to make players an average defender gets standing up.
And I don’t think he’s that great a player, period. Maybe in the long run, his stats will even out. But sucking for 2 months, then having a few really amazing games, then going back to sucking (probably) does not make for a great player.
I know.... it's just so hard to give up...
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
i made a post a couple days before his hot streak
noting how he will, sooner rather than later, hit and contribute offensively to the team
i was mocked
/looks for a rock to hide under
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I'm gonna wait till he starts walking
and stops striking out so much before I’m christening this the Great Ankiel Turnaround. 3-for-5, all singles, with two K’s, is a kind of misleadingly good-looking line, in a way….
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 13, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions
That's probably the opposite of actual skill.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
he has
the same LD% as Pujols. His BB% is 7.4% compared to Rasmus’s 6.4%. BABIP is .316…
He was killing the ball last year until he got hurt. He was killing the ball this year in spring training. I dunno. What makes you think it’s luck?
I stil think he is a .260-.270ish hitter who will hit 25 HRs over a course of a year if healthy for the whole year. His OBP should be around .330 when all is said and done.
Which makes him our third best outfielder behind Cobly and a healthy Ludwick. I dunno, what makes you think it’s all luck?
He was saying that leading all of our outfielders in OBP isn't saying much
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 13, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah i was saying Ank is more likely to lead in SLG and Rasmus more likely to lead in OBP
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
I think I found the source of Rasmus very high UZR data
Almost all of his 11.6 UZR runs have come from his range of 9.8 runs so far. Most of it in CF but still a decent amount in RF for his short stint. Now the thing about range it is limited by the fact that you have other players around you competing for similar range. It is not like you can cover entire field by yourself. His and Ankiel both have a RF/9 of 2.9 at CF which is very high and would tie them both for league highs in the stat.
Now if they have that high of range it must mean either LF, RF, or both have limited range.
Now Chris Duncan who has the majority of the time at LF is posting only a RF/9 of 1.4 which is good for last in the majors among qualified players.
Than Ludwick who has the majority of the time in RF is posting a 1.9 RF/9 which would put him in the lower 25% of baseball in terms of range.
Nothing against Colby but if we were playing straight up he would be a golden god of defense with this range. My guess though is that we are not playing straight up but we are doing quality OF shifts for each hitter to take advantage of where they are most likely to hit the ball the OF.
This is also the reason why Duncan UZR data is not as bad as you would think. He doesn’t have to cover as much range and is effective in the small range he has to cover.
This is something I have talked about before but this is my problem UZR in general. Most people don’t fully understand and that includes me. There is to many variables that are not accounted for such as shifts and the players around you. ie Chris Duncan has a better UZR than expected because he has Colby and Ankiel to cover him.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 13, 2009 1:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
There have been a number of times
when Rasmus has caught a ball that Luddy or Stav or Duncan would clearly have caught. This isn’t a slight on rasmus- he’s been great, with only one or two exceptions that were not “skill” or “range” issues, but mental (IE, rookie mistakes that he’ll overcome, like the one in SF). he looks much better than anyone else I’ve seen, in CF, so far this year. But i think the number that ends up next to his name at fangraphs overstates his defensive skill, since outfielders compete for an available supply of fly balls. Unlike infielders, whose ranges very rarely overlap, outfielders have to call each other off, so there is a potential for ball-hogging to take place.
I’m not criticizing him here- as the CF, it’s his job to catch everything he can get to unless another OF has a better angle on a throw to prevent advancement, so that’s a good thing, from the team’s perspective, especially given Duncan’s “exciting” play. but from the perspective of evaluating his actual impact, it has to be kept in mind. Someone else (IE, skip or Ankiel or Luddy in LF) would have caught at least some of the extreme range catches he’s made.
I’ve also seen this kind of thing play out with brendan ryan and troy tulowitski this year. BR has taken a couple of OOZ catches away from Duncan, who really should be catching balls that he can get to since coming in is easier than going out. TT actually pushed the 2B away from a popup in the series against the cards earlier this year. I know that fielders don’t get penalized for balls that others catch, but they don’t get credit for them either. I don’t see any way of automating a metric to take that kind of thing into account.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
There have
also been several hard-hit balls that Rasmus has gotten to when the RFer or LFer clearly wasn’t gonna get there. And then there was that play with Thurston… Colby was right there and didn’t make the play.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Ludwick's injury play
IIRC it looked like Colby might have had a chance at the ball that Ludwick missed and came up lame.
Is anyone else baffled that Duncan is still part of the outfield “rotation?” I just read today that Tony said when Lohse comes back the best five will be the starting rotation and the extra guy goes to the pen. A slight threat to Welley, I think. But why not do the same with our outfield. I guess without seeing whats on the pages of their secret matchup notebook, from my perspective it has to be Ras in CF, Ank in LF, and Lud in RF. If Luddy turns into almost the same guy he was last year and Dunc and Ank are pretty much hitting at the same tick, then shouldn’t it come down to other skills at some point? Speed goes to Ank. Defense goes to Ank. Baserunning goes to Ank. Arm goes to Ank. Daddy is my coach, that one goes to Duncan. If Duncan is not hitting really well then he needs to be prepared to ride the pine until someone needs a break or he can pinch hit for Welley every fifth game in the 3rd inning.
"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"
Dunc is a pretty good hitter
And he is one of the few players who has kept a solid hitting approach this entire season. I’m not saying I agree with it, but given our hacktastic offense so far this year, it’s not stupid to put Duncan in.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
but not a good enough hitter
to be an all offense, no defense guy
by prophetjohn on Jun 18, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
but he’s about as good as Ank/Stavinoah right now.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 18, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Not right now.
Maybe next season.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
if by next season
you mean post-season, that works
4B - beer baseball bands blog
history tells us again and again how GOB points out the folly of man
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
bingo
4B - beer baseball bands blog
history tells us again and again how GOB points out the folly of man
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Raz is playing great
And it seems like as the season rolls on, his play ensures that Ankiel will not be a Cardinal next season.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
Ha.
We’ll see. The Cardinals do dumb things sometimes.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
as long as they don't overpay rick and they don't put colby in left field again . . . .
i think paying rick doesn’t make a ton of sense, but i could think of worse things they could do.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Jun 18, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rasmus seems to be quite "clutch" as well
I realise that’s mostly just media bullshit, but he’s hit a lot of go-ahead shots and game winners lately, which has to play pretty well with the ROY stuff…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because Clutch isn't a skill doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Rasmus’ WPA this year is .67 and his clutch score is .68, which ranks him in the top 30 in the league.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 19, 2009 5:34 AM EDT up reply actions
still not good enough to not be PH'd for late in games
i love you Tony, but i think it’s time we see other people.
sigh
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on Jun 18, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

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