Cardinals Individual UZR, overall WAR, and positional value optimization

We have two months of data for 2009 UZR on Fangraphs.  By analyzing the Cardinals' defensive team audit page, we can see who's been giving the team some love with the glove, who's been sub-par, and what we can expect going forward.  I hope that by looking at the fielding data and overall WAR, I can reinforce a consensus opinion about the team's optimal utilization of resources.  I'm only looking at the data from players from this year.  More after the jump. 

r

Here are a few assumptions behind this chart:

1)  I am including each player's 2009 UZR fielding data and their career data for each position.  Any player who only has 2009 data has a dash in their career columns.  This should help overcome some sample-size issues, but by doing so I also introduce into the sample any improvement or deterioration of defensive skills.

2)  I am using the ZiPS Rest of Season projections to predict a players wOBA from here on out.  I am then converting that wOBA to to BRAA (batting runs above average) over 600 PAs by using the formula (wOBA-.330)xPAs/1.15.

3)  I didn't try to monetize value or introduce any positional adjustment because I'm solely concerned with the current roster and absolute performance...not any sort of replacement, trade or free-agent win computing exercize.

4) I also didn't include any minor league fielding data, primarily because I didn't know where to look and I wanted to stick with UZR, which I am most familiar with.  Be cautious of the small samples generated for some of the players.

5)  Mather and Glaus probably deserve to be on there, but I got lazy and I'm only looking at folks who have played this year.  

Positional Analysis

C:  Catching is a difficult position to capture through any metric, so I didn't even bother putting it on there.  Yadi's defensive prowess is almost universally praised. 

1B:  Albert

2B:  The first position where there is controversy.  Schumaker: has gotten the bulk of playing time at 2B, but has cost the team 8.6 runs below an average second baseman according to UZR.  According to the data on fangraphs, his biggest liability has been a lack of range (-9.5 range runs) and his average sure-handedness doesn't make up for it.  Among qualified second basemen, Skip is the worst second baseman in baseball, 1.6 runs behind Dan Uggla. His bat is pretty much league average, and this year he's hitting RHP only slightly better than LHP (which is a commendable improvement for the Schu Man) but still.  His reputation for defense saves in LF hasn't born fruit, either, since he's -3.1 runs this year and merely a career 3.1 runs average in the Dunn Siberia.  Barring any sort of breakthrough in his defense, It might be time to stick a fork in this turkey of an experiment. 

Thurston:  Over 88 innings at 2B this year, Joe has contributed above-average defense and his career fielding data is in the +13 runs/150 games range.  His offensive skills are ok according to wOBA and is only a few runs below average from here on out...should be about a league average-ish second baseman from here on out based on his ZiPS ROS wOBA and positive defense at 2B.  He's always deserved a starting role, but has been blocked by elite 2B talent at LAN PHI and BOS

Ryan:  Another good 2B, although not as good as Thurston.  His career UZR/150 at 2B is only 1.9 RAA. He's been above average with the bat this year and is stinging the ball at a 23.7% LD rate, but that and his .376 BABIP should regress.  ZiPS ROS is skeptical of his success this year.

T. Greene:  Too early to say anything about his second base skills, but he's a SS.  ZiPS is also skeptical of his success thus far.  More later.

Barden:  Not enough data, but he's likely a better 3B.  

3B:  Again, there are many suitors for this position on the Cardinals.  I'll start with Barden who has been playing a very good defensive 3B so far this year.  Over his major league career he's like 13 runs above average at the hot corner.  ZiPS hates his bat for the rest of the season, though.  Despite his whopping 3HRs this year, he's kind of like Cesar Izturis of the 3B. 

Ryan:  He hasn't played any 3B this year, but he's been -4.1 runs/150 games below average for his career.

Thurston:  UZR really doesn't like Joe at 3B.  -3.3 UZR runs this year.  Pales in comparison to his 2B defense.

T. Greene:  Too early to draw any conclusions about his D at 3B.

Freese:  He's injured now (woe is the Future Redbirds reader), but Freese posted good numbers defensively.  Furthermore, I remember reading somewhere that his minor league defense was in the vecinity of like +13 runs defensively.  ZiPS also loves his offense, projecting him to be only 1 run below average for the rest of the year.  If he hit like ZiPS called for him to over an entire season, he might be worth 2-3 wins.  Nice asset. 

SS:  Controversy continues here. 

Ryan:  UZR loves Brendan Ryan at SS.  Based on the data, he's 21 defensive runs above an average SS over 150 games.  He's also been an above average offensive player this year, primarily based on his %23 LD rate and high BABIP.  He does have a Expect that to regress, somewhat, but even if he hits 8 runs below average from here on out (like ZiPS calls for) he's still a great talent. 

T. Greene:  Tyler "First Round Pick" Greene has also been very good with the glove and has displayed some nice power and increased plate discipline this year in very limited playing time.  ZiPS is skeptical of his performance from here on out, but I think his offensive performance might be legit due to his career .180 ISO. Lets hope he keeps getting fastballs.

K. Greene:  I hate to suggest this, but it might be time to cut ties with K. Greene.  His has not performed defensively or offensively this year and I'm not excited about his defensive rebound potential.  Indeed, his career UZR is -3.9/150 games.  ZiPS thinks he'll cost the Cardinals ~4 more runs below average from here on out, only about 4 more than Ryan, but that's assuming that he gets back into playing shape.  I like Khalil, but still...  I'll take the vacuuming Ryan and his LD-enhanced BABIP than K. Greene at this point.

This get a little bit more clear in the OF and I'm getting a little verbose:

LF:  Ryan Ludwick:  Ludwick has performed admirably in LF throughout his entire career even though his defense is a run or two better throughout the whole year in RF (and isn't bad in CF for his career).  ZiPS likes his bat going forward.  He makes the most sense in Left given our other options.  

Ankiel:  Ankiel gets better defensively as the numbers increase from LF-RF.  He's actually not a bad CF, but he doesn't have a huge sample size in LF to base performance off of.  I also like his man-cannon arm out in the right side of the outfield.  ZiPS likes his bat despite the slow start this year.

Duncan.  Meh.  His defense is below average, but not terrible, and his offense only projects to be ~5 runs above average for the whole year.  I'm not sure what a replacement level LF is this year, but Duncan is probably only 1 or 1.5 wins above that. 

Schuman:  Probably a little bit more valuable in LF than Duncan, but he's kind of a 4th OF, imo. 

Shane & Stav:  Kind of fun to look at, but I am sick and tired of having Aaron Miles in the OF.   At this point they're both replacement.  I'm not sure about Shane's ceiling, however.

Colby:  Colby has a great glove, but rules CF. 

CF:  Like I said before...Colby.  He's been worth one win with his glove, alone, and should provide league average-ish offense from here on out.  All hail Colby.   Ank actually isn't that bad CF.

RF:  While Ludwick is probably the better RF and Ankiel only has 250 innings to support this: I like Ankiel in RF.  Career UZR numbers are best there, and his bat is more RF than LF. 

Not really surprising, but here's what I've supposed to be the optimal line-up factoring defense and offense:

2B:  Thurston--the best defensive 2B and has close to league-average bat.  Ryan next.

SS:  Ryan--Crazy UZR/150 numbers combined with a career high LD% make him a valuable asset this year.  He did hit 4HRs in 2007.  T Greene is close, but his offensive success is more of a question mark due to high K%...does posses a nice career ISO mark.

3B: Murkier, due to organizational injury and depth, but I'll give you a WAR order:  Glaus>Freese>Barden>T Greene  One caveat is whether or not Greene becomes a plus defender at 3B.  If T Greene be a +7 run defender at 3B and wOBA near league average, then I'd take him over Barden.

LF:  Ludwick, due to Ankiel's prowess in RF.  Ludwick is still a plus defender in LF, although his bat is relatively weaker due to the Manny-factor.

CF:  Rasmus.  ZOMG

RF: Ankiel: better than Juan Encarnacion. It also might be worth it to see Mather thrown in there on a semi-regular basis.

Schu:  4th outfielder, no business at 2B.

Duncan: DH